cover of episode Let the Bedwetting Begin

Let the Bedwetting Begin

2024/10/11
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D
Dan Pfeiffer
前白宫通信主任和《Pod Save America》播客的共同主持人,专注于政治、通信和数字策略。
J
Jon Favreau
Topics
距离2024年美国总统大选还有25天,目前选情胶着,民调显示哈里斯在全国和部分摇摆州领先,但特朗普的支持率也在上升。民主党内部出现恐慌情绪,但分析师认为不必过度担忧。选情胶着,任何微小的变化都可能影响最终结果。特朗普的竞选策略是通过各种媒体渠道接触那些不太关注政治的选民,而哈里斯的竞选策略是密集接受媒体采访,争取更多选民的支持。分析师认为,哈里斯应该继续密集接受媒体采访,即使这可能会带来一些小的争议,因为这能够接触到更多选民。同时,特朗普的策略是通过一些极具争议的言论来吸引关注。分析师建议,哈里斯竞选团队应该继续采取各种策略来保持竞选势头,例如举办不同类型的活动,争取更多支持,并强调哈里斯与特朗普之间的对比。 在如此胶着的选情中,每个选区的少量选票都可能改变最终结果。2022年中期选举结果不能完全反映当前选民构成,因为今年的选民规模更大,且对民主党的支持率较低。特朗普的领先优势建立在不稳定的基础上,因为他需要那些投票记录不佳的选民出来投票,而他的竞选活动并没有针对这些选民。特朗普的竞选策略是通过各种媒体渠道接触那些不太关注政治的选民。分析师认为,民调误差和选民投票率低都会影响最终结果,民调只能反映选情胶着,无法预测胜负。

Deep Dive

Chapters
With 25 days until Election Day, the polls are tightening, causing some Democrats to panic. While Kamala Harris maintains a slight lead in several battleground states, the race is essentially a toss-up. It's crucial for Democrats to focus on getting their voters to the polls, as a small shift in votes could significantly impact the outcome.
  • Every battleground state is within the margin of error.
  • High engagement voters favor Harris, while low and mid-engagement voters favor Trump.
  • New voters, a smaller segment, are leaning towards Harris.
  • The closeness of the race necessitates maximizing voter turnout.

Shownotes Transcript

With 25 days left until Election Day, the quadrennial October Freakout is upon us! Jon and Dan break down the tightening polls, the rival campaigns' strategies for the final push, and the reasons why it's okay to worry—but not to panic. Then, Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen joins Lovett to talk about her tight race for reelection and how she plans to pull off a win.

 

For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here). For a transcript of this episode, please email [email protected] and include the name of the podcast.