cover of episode Ezra Klein on Where Democrats Go From Here

Ezra Klein on Where Democrats Go From Here

2024/11/13
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Ezra Klein
一位深受欢迎的美国记者、政治分析师和《纽约时报》专栏作家,通过其《The Ezra Klein Show》podcast 探讨各种社会和政治问题。
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Jon Favreau
Topics
Jon Favreau:民主党需要解决其长期以来输给特朗普或更糟的候选人的问题,关注如何建立一个更广泛的联盟,而不是仅仅关注决定选举结果的几个关键点。他还强调了通货膨胀和生活成本上升对民主党的影响,以及如何将这些问题与更广泛的文化问题区分开来。他认为,民主党需要更好地与工人阶级选民沟通,关注他们的经济愿望和身份认同,而不仅仅是物质需求。他还提到,一些旨在帮助弱势群体的政策,例如儿童税收抵免,并没有像预期的那样受欢迎,这可能与人们对政府救济的抵触心理有关。 Ezra Klein:民主党需要在短期情绪化反应之外,专注于长期策略。他认为,美国政治的竞争性程度空前,现阶段的极化并不一定意味着竞争性。他分析了2020年和2024年大选结果的差异,认为主要源于现任总统的惩罚效应以及经济因素。他指出,民主党正在流失工人阶级选民,这应该被视为一场精神危机,而不是仅仅关注赢得郊区选民。他批评了民主党长期以来对工人阶级选民持有的过于简单的物质主义观点,认为只要政策足够具有再分配性,他们就会支持民主党。他认为,拜登政府在经济政策上已经相当左倾,但并没有产生预期的效果,这表明民主党对工人阶级选民的理解存在问题。他还指出,桑德斯派系对工人阶级选民的理解过于单一化,缺乏对选民复杂需求的认识。他认为,民主党需要关注工人阶级选民的经济愿望和身份认同,而不仅仅是物质需求。他还指出,民主党需要检讨其政策和理论,而不是仅仅责备选民。他分析了特朗普政府内部的派系斗争,以及马斯克对特朗普的影响力及其潜在的政治购买力对民主制度构成的威胁。他还讨论了民主党在处理通货膨胀和生活成本上升的问题上存在不足,以及如何将这些问题与更广泛的文化问题区分开来。他认为,民主党在通货膨胀出现之前就已经开始流失工人阶级选民,通货膨胀只是加剧了这一趋势。他还探讨了民主党在经济政策方面的一些问题,以及如何更好地与工人阶级选民沟通。他认为,民主党需要关注选民的经济愿望和身份认同,而不仅仅是物质需求。他还批评了民主党在2020年党内初选中犯的一些错误,以及社交媒体对民主党的影响。他认为,民主党需要更好地与选民沟通,关注他们的实际需求,并解决其在治理能力方面的问题。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Democrats lose working-class and lower-information voters even before 2024?

Democrats lost touch with working-class voters by focusing too much on redistributionist policies without addressing economic aspirations and identities. They failed to communicate a language of aspiration and work, which is crucial for connecting with these voters.

How did social media and interest groups contribute to the divide within the Democratic Party?

Social media and interest groups drove factionalism within the Democratic Party by pushing for extreme positions on various issues, often without considering the broader electorate's views. This led to a culture of differentiation to the most extreme position, which alienated moderate and working-class voters.

Why did blue states and cities shift right in the election?

Blue states and cities shifted right due to governance failures, particularly in managing issues like homelessness, crime, and affordability. The sense of disorder and rising costs made people in these areas dissatisfied with Democratic leadership.

What can progressives do to tackle the affordability crisis?

Progressives should focus on policies that make life more affordable and save people money, such as cutting taxes, reducing the cost of essential goods, and increasing the supply of housing. They need to communicate a relentless focus on affordability to resonate with voters.

How did Donald Trump and Elon Musk influence the perception of the Democratic Party?

Trump and Musk, as public figures of wealth and success, highlighted the disconnect between the Democratic Party and economic aspirations. Their public personas as billionaires who understand and address economic issues challenged the Democrats' narrative of representing the working class.

What role did interest groups play in shaping Democratic policies?

Interest groups, particularly those representing minority and marginalized communities, pushed for policies that often did not align with the broader electorate's views. This led to a disconnect between the policies advocated by these groups and the actual needs and sentiments of working-class voters.

Why did the Democratic Party lose touch with the working class?

The Democratic Party lost touch with the working class by focusing on highly ideological interest groups and pushing extreme positions on various issues. This alienated moderate and working-class voters who felt their economic aspirations and identities were not being addressed.

How did the Democratic Party's approach to immigration policy contribute to their loss?

The Democratic Party's approach to immigration policy, influenced by interest groups, led to positions that were out of touch with the broader electorate, particularly working-class voters. This disconnect was evident in the party's inability to address the real economic and social impacts of immigration.

What was the impact of inflation on the 2024 election?

Inflation played a significant role in the 2024 election by making the cost of living a salient issue. High prices on essential goods and services, coupled with persistent economic challenges, eroded support for the Democratic Party among working-class voters.

How did the Democratic Party's relationship with interest groups change post-Obama?

Post-Obama, the Democratic Party became more reliant on interest groups to shape their policies, often pushing for extreme positions to differentiate themselves. This shift led to a loss of the ability to say no to policies that did not align with the broader electorate's views.

Chapters
The discussion begins with a focus on how Democrats lost touch with working-class voters, even before the 2024 election. The conversation delves into the cultural and economic factors that contributed to this shift, including the role of social media and interest groups.
  • Democrats have lost working-class voters, including the multiracial working class.
  • Cultural issues and misinformation play a significant role in voter behavior.
  • The Democratic Party needs to address the affordability crisis to regain support.

Shownotes Transcript

Jon and New York Times columnist Ezra Klein, host of The Ezra Klein Show, talk through what we know about how Democrats started to lose working-class and lower-information voters—even before 2024—how social media and interest groups drive those divides, why blue states and cities shifted right, and what progressives can do to tackle the affordability crisis.