cover of episode The Indicators of this year and next

The Indicators of this year and next

2023/12/27
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Planet Money
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J
Jeff Guo
K
Kenny Malone
W
Wailin Wong
经验丰富的商业和经济记者，主持NPR的《The Indicator from Planet Money》和Basecamp的《Rework》播客。
Topics
Jeff Guo: 2023年最主要的经济指标是"软着陆"的可能性，即美联储能否在不引发经济衰退的情况下降低通货膨胀。全年人们都在关注通货膨胀数据，讨论菲利普斯曲线、收益率曲线以及就业数据，最终结果有望实现经济的软着陆。 Kenny Malone: 2023年最主要的经济指标是消费者情绪。尽管经济数据向好，但消费者情绪却异常低迷，这种脱节将影响未来的选举和政策制定。 Wailin Wong: 2023年最主要的经济指标是疲软的房地产市场。高抵押贷款利率导致购房者减少，房屋销售量下降，这是自1995年以来最糟糕的一年。 Jeff Guo: 2024年最主要的经济指标是拜登政府的经济政策，特别是其工业政策（例如《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》），这些政策的影响将在明年显现。 Kenny Malone: 2024年最主要的经济指标是美联储的利率。美联储主席鲍威尔暗示明年可能降息，这将影响整个金融体系的利率。 Wailin Wong: 2024年最主要的经济指标是"垃圾费"。拜登政府正在打击各种隐性收费，如果相关提案最终确定，消费者可能会看到更低的费用和更少的额外收费。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts debate the top economic indicator of 2023, with Kenny Malone focusing on consumer sentiment, Jeff Guo on the soft landing, and Wailin Wong on the housing market. They present their cases, highlighting the disconnect between positive economic numbers and negative consumer sentiment.
  • Consumer sentiment was surprisingly negative despite relatively good economic numbers.
  • The soft landing, the Fed's attempt to curb inflation without causing a recession, was a major storyline.
  • The housing market experienced a downturn due to high mortgage rates, impacting sales and affordability.

Shownotes Transcript

Today on the show, hosts from Planet Money and The Indicator debate the economic indicators of this year and next year.First up, we try to identify the figure that best captured the essence of 2023. The contenders: the possible soft landing, consumer sentiment, and the housing market.And looking ahead to 2024, what will the economic indicator of next year be? Interest rates, Bidenomics, or junk fees?Listen to our hosts make their case, and then tell us who won by submitting your vote via Planet Money's Instagram) or email us with "Family Feud" in the subject line. Voting ends on December 31st.*This episode was hosted by Jeff Guo, Kenny Malone and Wailin Wong. It was produced by Julia Ritchey and Willa Rubin with engineering help from Valentina Rodriguez Sanchez. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Kate Concannon edits The Indicator.Help support Planet Money and get bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts) or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney).Music: Universal Music Production, "Terry And Mildred," "Decked Out For The Holidays." Audio Network - "Counting Down Seconds," "Tijuana Choo Choo."*Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)