cover of episode How much national debt is too much?

How much national debt is too much?

2024/6/7
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Aaron Powell
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Andrea Presbitero
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Karen Dinan
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Kenneth Rogoff
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节目主持人探讨了高额国家债务可能带来的风险，包括债务滚雪球效应、投资者对政府债券失去兴趣以及经济增长放缓。他们还回顾了2010年Reinhart和Rogoff发表的论文，该论文指出当国家债务超过GDP的90%时，经济增长会显著放缓。然而，该论文的结论存在争议，并且后续研究表明债务对经济的影响取决于多种因素，例如债务的货币构成、债权人类型以及债务期限等。一些经济学家认为，高债务与低增长之间的相关性并不意味着高债务导致低增长，低增长也可能导致高债务。他们还讨论了在金融危机后，低利率使得高额债务问题暂时得到缓解，但利率上升后，这个问题再次变得突出。 Karen Dinan认为，尽管之前政府支出存在争议，但事后看来，这些支出在应对金融危机方面可能是有益的，甚至可能应该更多。她还表示，制定财政政策存在不确定性，难以预测政策结果，缺乏足够的证据支持决策。目前难以确定美国国债何时会达到危险水平，缺乏明确的衡量标准。 Aaron Powell介绍了Reinhart和Rogoff论文的主要观点，即当国家债务超过GDP的90%时，经济增长会显著放缓。 Andrea Presbitero认为Reinhart和Rogoff的论文引发了关于财政紧缩和继续支出的激烈辩论，并指出该论文激发了大量后续研究，以更深入地理解债务对经济的影响。他认为高债务与低增长之间的因果关系是复杂的，取决于多种因素。 Kenneth Rogoff对他的论文被误读感到不满，他认为该论文并没有明确设定一个国家债务的绝对阈值，而是指出高债务水平会增加经济风险。他认为，持续增加债务最终会减缓经济增长，美国目前正朝着这个方向发展。他认为美国两党政治家都对增税或削减开支以平衡预算持抵触态度。虽然他不认为美国会面临经济灾难，但他认为高额债务导致通货膨胀和利率上升。 Karen Dinan认为，虽然没有明确的债务阈值，但她认为设定一个基准可以促使政府采取行动解决债务问题。

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Most economic textbooks will tell you that there can be real dangers in running up a big national debt. A major concern is how the debt you add now could slow down economic growth in the future. Economists have not been able to nail down how much debt a country can safely take on. But they have tried.Back in 2010, two economists took a look at 20 countries over the course of decades, and sometimes centuries, and came back with a number. Their analysis suggested that economic growth slowed significantly once national debt passed 90% of annual GDP... and that is when the fight over debt and growth really took off.On today's episode: a deep dive on what we know, and what we don't know, about when exactly national debt becomes a problem. We will also try to figure out how worried we should be about the United States' current debt total of 26 trillion dollars.*This episode was hosted by Keith Romer and Nick Fountain. It was produced by Willa Rubin and edited by Molly Messick. It was fact-checked by Sierra Juarez with help from Sofia Shchukina and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts) or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney).*Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)