Tariffs, Tech, and Turbulence: Markets Wait For Nvidia Earnings
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Welcome to the Monday edition of the Risk Reversal Podcast. I'm Dan Nathan, joined by Guy Adami and Liz Thomas. People, how are you? Yo. Good morning. Big week. We got to take some stock of what happened on Friday. Not a great week in the markets. I think it was the first down week and maybe for the year. We're going to look at some economic data. Guy, it is the Fed's

most favored inflation reading that comes out Friday. A bunch of earnings, a bunch of macro stuff, a little housekeeping first. Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management is going to be on with me tomorrow morning on the Risk Reversal Pod. We're going to talk about this Apple news, how much

they are going to spend on their data center build out here in the U.S. There's also some noise that Microsoft may be canceling some data center leases. So Gina and I are going to get all over that. And then on Friday, we have Tom Lee of Fundstrat. Guy and I sit down with him on Thursday. And also, if you are not getting it, the Risk Reversal Daily Newsletter, you can go get that at

riskreversal.com. We got a lot of great commentary on there, some trade ideas, some wrap of our content. Guy, where do you want to start? You want to take some stock of Friday's market action? Obviously, pretty significant sell-off in the broader market. I don't know what that was on the back of. People will try to back into the reasons why. I will tell you,

For me, I looked at those Fed minutes as much as people said that the slowdown in balance sheet reduction was a bullish thing. I looked at it and said, wait a second, what do they see that the rest of us don't see? And I think I was taking some, I don't know, I was just trying to take some stock of that and try to figure out really what was going on.

But the broader market sold off. The VIX obviously bounced. But what I found somewhat encouraging is the fact that yields didn't move higher in a pretty meaningful way. Now, we'll see what happens this week. As you mentioned, PCE on Friday, there's a lot of other things that can drive this bus. But that was, to me, the one saving grace. Now, maybe we saw yields come in on the back of some sort of perceived flight to quality.

That could be it. But I thought Friday was interesting. I'll also say this. Over the weekend, we learned that Warren Buffett now has north of $330 billion on his balance sheet. And all the metrics that he looks at are seemingly continue to flash red. And I'll say for the 100th time, none of these are timing mechanism, but it just gives the market, I think, Dan, less and less room for error.

Yeah, Liz, one of the things I heard over the weekend from a very smart hedge fund guy that I speak to quite frequently is that there was some bird flu stuff that was kind of worked into that on Friday, which I did not hear. But when you just kind of look at what's going on, we got trade, we got tariffs, we got geopolitical stuff, there's

you know, yields, you know, like they've been kind of coming in a little bit. There's a whole host of stuff going on here. Maybe Mike Wilson was targeting some of this in his note out this morning from Morgan Stanley suggesting, and he had been suggesting on our podcast that the first half of this year was going to be a lot rockier than the last half of

of last year. What do you make of that sort of selling in such a short period of time? And I also think that to Guy's point, the VIX never got really above 18. He highlights a lot that sometimes when you get those huge spikes up to the mid to high 20s, that's usually the opportunity to kind of buy stocks. It doesn't appear that that was even in play Friday afternoon.

Yeah, so on the pod last Monday, Guy and I talked about the fact that last week was kind of a benign week. There wasn't a lot of data coming. There weren't a lot of earnings. And I said something to the effect of sometimes these weeks get funky, though, because the market is left to its own devices. It has nothing to react to, and it looks for something to do. People have trouble sitting on their hands.

On Friday morning, what started some of the selling, there was an announcement about United Health Group, something about a DOJ investigation. So the Dow was already down, was already being dragged down because it is the, I think it's the second largest component in the Dow. But then things continued and snowballed throughout the day. And we ended the day with the NASDAQ actually down worse than anything else.

The only thing that I can think of, I mean, I didn't hear about the bird flu stuff either. The only thing that I can think of is you see something like that start to happen and it picks up steam and then investors wonder, did I miss something? What does everybody else know that I don't know? And maybe I should take some risk off the table. And what it tells me about that is that people still have too much risk on the table.

And there's so much uncertainty out there and there's so much that we don't know about these policies, about the geopolitical landscape, about earnings. We were coming up on the week where NVIDIA reports and people got nervous and said, I've still got too much exposure. Why don't I bring it down on a day like today? And there we were. So I think this week, similarly, aside from maybe the NVIDIA earnings, there's not a whole lot going on. I mean, we've got, yes, an inflation report, but that doesn't happen until all the way on Friday.

And again, remember, even with that inflation report, what we talked about when CPI came out is this January effect. That's a PCE read on January. So we may have a very similar experience in the PCE read that we did on CPI. And I say that just to suggest maybe it's not really that big of a deal. Even if it does come in hot, we've already sort of seen some of that. You know, throw this out there as well, Dan, real quick, just to play a little stock market. One of the other things that I found

you know somewhat interesting and again i i don't think this is the best constructed etf of all time but the the russell through the lens of the iwm has not been performing well now if you go back all the way since november so against a broader market that's obviously seemingly making new all-time highs every day until late last week

Now, you have a Russell that's sort of been rolling over. And as we're sitting here at this sort of 217 or so level, you will recall for the longest time, this is sort of where we traded around sideways for seemingly the better part of a few years. So again, not the best constructed, so I don't make a huge deal out of it. But as I sit here watching things,

The underperformance of the Russell now for the last couple of months sticks out as well. Yeah. And I guess the thing that I keep hearing, too, is that we're a month into this new administration. And this was what Mike Wilson kind of was talking about as a rockier first half of the year. He said the lagged effect of stickier rates in addition to potential growth headwinds from Doge tariffs.

in immigration have come together to reinforce the view that he just kind of laid out and you know like we can put a lot of emphasis on that you know once we get by this first 100 days that we get some sort of framework for for how you know what i mean this administration is going to deal with some of those things i mean i'm in the camp that we're probably going to get back to

some baseline sort of things. We have a bit of a playbook from Trump 1.0. But, Guy, this is something that sticks out to me, the enthusiasm about Chinese stocks here and also over there. Last week was a huge week. The B in your tube, the acronym on fast money, is Alibaba, and there's no shortage of good news there. And then we obviously talked about Jack Ma being with President Xi and the like, and those stocks ripped fast.

Now, today, with some new shipping fees that the Trump administration wants to place on Chinese companies here, look at the performance here. You know, Alibaba's down almost 8%. PDD's down 7.5%. KWeb's down 5%. This is shortly after the opening on Monday. So money was trying to find a home, you know, kind of chasing, and that's been going on for a couple months. Guys, love to get your take on that. And Liz, I want to see where you are, you know, stepping around the world here a little bit too.

Well, I'll tell you in terms of Alibaba, I mean, it started the year around an $80 stock and we sort of caught a break, but that moved from, think about it, from 80 to 140 and change

We haven't seen a move of that magnitude in Alibaba in quite some time. And actually, if you listen to Market Call at all last week, we talked about the potential for a pretty meaningful pullback, sort of back down in terms of Alibaba 118, which was sort of the level that we topped out at in the fall of last year. But what does it mean? I think there's this...

Let's put it this way. I don't think the Chinese trade is over. I think it's obviously taking a pause. The rhetoric around tariffs will continue for the foreseeable future. But I think, in my opinion, you're looking for entry points on the long side in these names, not looking for exit points. Although, obviously, I think last week, we sort of outlined why we thought at least in the short term we would see it. But

I think the Chinese trade is going to be alive and well for a foreseeable future. And that might fly in the face of a lot of the things that people have been saying out there. Yeah, I would agree with that. And I obviously talk about ETFs, not single stocks. So I've been looking at K-Web and FXI. I own both of those ETFs. I added to K-Web in the last couple of weeks.

And we talked about this a lot last week. I wrote about it in my blog last week. The idea that coming into the end of last week, we had the K-Web up almost 20%. We had FXI up over 15%. Both of them had absolutely eclipsed the S&P 500 so far this year. And the S&P wasn't doing so badly this year. So they were really astronomical numbers for this

short period of time. And we talked about the fact that probably due for a little bit of a pullback in the near term, just because you never see things run that far that fast without stopping. But you have to drag it out longer, look over a longer term historical period. And when you look at a five-year chart of either of those, or just China in general, I think you can see that

the bottom, at least this is my opinion, the bottom happened, right? And bottoming happened over a long period of time. There were a couple big dips in there, but I think the bottom occurred. And my thesis was and continues to be on China that they will keep stimulating, they will keep doing what they have to do until they get what they want in their economy. Now, tariffs, obviously, a force that's going to affect that and especially going to affect

technology in their markets, but that's why I own both of those ETFs. The FXI has a little bit more exposure to the Chinese consumer, a little bit more exposure to other sectors, whereas the K-Web has really just exclusive exposure to technology. Yeah, you know, I could...

broaden that out a little bit too. You could look at the EEM, right? So you obviously get a lot of China, but you get other emerging markets there. But that brings me back to a non-emerging market, or at least merging from a performance standpoint. If you look at the Euro stocks 50, Liz, this has been some real outperformance this year also. And it's funny because

It just started to get on the tips of some investors' tongues. And you think about the performance there, I think it's up 12% or so. I think the S&P at its highs recently was up maybe 4.5% or so. So Europe is a value trade. Europe is a trade that people are focused on. If we did see some peace in Ukraine, kind of a more stable environment, we had those election

results in Germany, which were probably not the worst case scenarios that some folks were trying to figure out. So thoughts on Europe, especially if the U.S. is going to be kind of mired in a lot of this headline risk over the next couple of months or so.

Yeah, so the ETF that tracks the Eurostox 50 is ticker FEZ. That's the one to look at and also done really well this year. That's why I added it to that international note last week. So up at this point, up about 13% year to date. Again, astronomical performance.

Europe's earnings, if you look at just earnings in their stock market and of the FEC, doing well compared to China. So this sort of slow grind upward and you want to have some fundamental support.

If you made me choose between investing in Europe and investing in China, I'd still choose China. And it's not because I'm so bullish on China as a country or I believe that their economic system is more efficient. That's not the case. But the trouble that I have with Europe, and it's not to say that there won't be equity opportunity there. I do think there will be. The trouble I have with Europe is that

It's a region that has to coordinate so many different countries' economies, and that is really difficult to do. And you inevitably have one or two, especially if it's one or two of the big ones, so let's say France or Germany or even Italy on some level.

That doesn't do as well as the rest of them and acts as a drag on the rest of the region. And it's a lot of different countries that you have to get to agree on a path forward. And especially at a time when there's going to continue to be geopolitical issues, whether it's from new tariffs that we place on Europe or it's

the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and some countries that will just move in different directions. So Europe, I think, is a little bit more difficult to pull out of the mud than China is when you've got just one economy to worry about. You know, I'll throw this in real quick. I mean, she mentions the Fed. She's spot on. I mean, we're breaking. We are appearing to be breaking out. And you go back all the way to 2007, I think, the fall to see the Fed's last time it was at these levels. And I do believe the all time high was back then.

And what's interesting about this, a lot of companies people have heard of. ASML, I think, is the top holding at 7.5%. SAP, everybody's heard of. LVMH is about a 5%. Siemens is a name that people know. Sanofi is a name that people know. Deutsche Telekom is a name that people know. So pretty interesting ETF. I think it's heavily weighted in financials and technology, probably throw industrials as well. But

You know, this is one that I think he continued to surprise people to the upside. Let's see what our data looks like, because I think part of it is maybe stickier inflation is causing lots of investors here in the U.S. to kind of look abroad a little bit. And so let's talk about this PCE on Friday that's coming out. It's supposed to be kind of the lowest reading, I think, since June. You know, we saw that CPI reading that was, I don't know, would you call it benign to like

slightly hotter, right? That kind of got some volatility going. The implied move in the S&P this week is about 1.5%. This is a little above the kind of normal implied move for the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100, about 2.1%. Guy, are you expecting Friday? Let's say we get through NVIDIA, we get through some of these other earnings and there's nothing kind of meaningfully going on. Do you expect to see

a 10-year yield at 4.45, where it is basically right now in the S&P 500, somewhere in and around this kind of 60-50 level. Yeah, so Elizabeth can opine about this, but I would push back just a little bit. I didn't think those CPI and the PPI were as benign as people thought. I know that was the takeaway, but

We're three and a half, four years into this and inflation is clearly still a problem. But I do think PCE could be a market mover without question. I think they're expecting 0.3 for the month, 2.4%. I think year over year, Elizabeth can correct me if I'm wrong. Obviously, NVIDIA is the headliner of the week. Maybe Home Depot is interesting tomorrow.

But I think the PCE on Friday could be a market moving event. And I remain in this sort of higher rates camp and predicated on a lot of things, not least of which the sticky inflation that is problematic for everybody right now. So what the inflation numbers are driving is more volatility in the bond market than in the stock market lately. And what we saw with CPI was that it came in hot across the board, meaning it beat month over month, it beat year over year, and it was

hotter than expected on headline and core. Now, only about a tick across every metric, so it wasn't anything dramatic, but hotter across the board. And the other issue that happened with CPI this time was we'd been talking so much about, oh, it's just housing, it's just car insurance. Well, this time it wasn't just housing and just car insurance, and that's the concern. And Mario and I have been tracking how many components are still showing between 2% and

terribly problematic like it was before, but still a lot of components in that window of 2% to 4%. So PCE this week is expected year over year to come in 2.5%, which would be a tick down from last month. So that's

positive, but 2.5 still above target, obviously. And core is expected to come in at 2.6, so even higher. And now we've been in this scenario for a while where core PCE and core CPI have been running hotter than headline. And that's what the Fed is watching. The Fed is watching core to decide mostly on monetary policy. Now, I agree with Guy. If it comes in hotter than expected, I think it will be a market-moving event.

Again, more market moving in the bond market than in the stock market. And if you look at just Fed rate expectations, if you remember what happened when we got CPI, we completely priced out an entire cut for this year. So we had just one cut priced in, pushed the whole thing back into 2026.

Now we're back in a position where the market is expecting about an 80% chance of two cuts this year. So we've got two priced back in. If PCE comes in hot, we're going to see that same level of volatility pricing out another cut. So I would just be ready for that as the week drags on. Guy, are you surprised? So what Liz just said, we're pricing out cuts.

But the 10-year yield really can't get out of its own way. It did have a little bit of a bounce. And here it is, I think, at 443 here today. So to your point that you made earlier that people are buying treasuries, it just seems like a flight to quality, that sort of thing. I mean, how much...

know if we continue to be you know a bit rocky i mean like think about this the s p's still up 2.3 on the year right we're just down two percent from those recent all-time highs but all of a sudden i think friday you know it really kind of opened my eyes a little bit because i would have thought with yields coming in and we did see some kind of bad earnings from home builders and the like but that was one of the hardest hit groups

in the market on Friday. And here they are. They kind of followed through to the downside, down nearly 1% today. So what's driving this 20% move from recent highs in the XHB, you know what I mean, to where it is? It's trading at lows it hasn't done since the summer.

Well, sticky, if you think about it, how sticky mortgage rates have been. And again, it's one of those things where, you know, 10-year yields could fall down to four and a quarter percent. And I would probably submit that you're not going to see a meaningful move in longer-term mortgage rates. That's just my sense, whether that's right or not. But what I thought was really interesting, I think it was last week, we heard from Toll Brothers and

For the first time in a very long time, you saw a year-over-year price decline in average selling price. And that speaks to the higher-end market.

a home buyer, which, you know, we really haven't seen any kinks in that armor yet, and we're starting to see it now. So it's a combination of yields being elevated, and I think sort of weakness in the economy, which makes sense that yields are going down on the back of that. So, you know, I can sort of wrap my head around it, but

I'll say this, that weakness in the economy, I think, is going to be more than offset by stickier inflation and number of bond offerings that need to be done over the next few months. And I think that's going to override the slowing economy. That's now, whether or not I'm right or not, remains to be seen. But I think you could see an environment where things slow down, and maybe that slowdown manifests itself in GDP.

and yields go higher, which is not a great scenario, Dan. Yeah. So, Liz, you know, I don't think we've talked about Walmart's results and the reaction to it from last week. And, you know, a story in Walmart over the last couple of years is that a weak economy is good for Walmart. A stronger economy than expected last year is good for Walmart. All of a sudden, you know, the stock that had doubled, I think, over the last 13 or 14 months,

It was trading at all-time highs into the print, so expectations were high. Valuation was high. Not bumping their full-year guidance up sent the stock down, I think, 6.5% the day after. Well, it's followed through for two more days in a row. As I'm looking at it right now, it's down 1.5% on the day. It's down 11.5% from those recent all-time highs a week ago. Are we starting to see some folks just fall?

finally saying, you know, valuation does matter. The ability to continue to raise guidance matters. And maybe we really are drilling down a little bit. I know there's a second reading on GDP this week, but maybe if that starts coming in less than expected, because the story last year is they were coming in better than expected, that people might start peeling out of some of these trades they thought were

We're just, you know, they're going to do well in any sort of environment, which I actually think also happened on Thursday in the banks, the day that we saw a lot of them down multiple percent. J.P. Morgan, the strongest one, you know, over the last two years was down 4% at one point. Well, we have to remember the reason GDP has been doing better than expected is because of what's called basically private domestic demand. And that's consumers and businesses, but private businesses, so not including government.

And a lot of the consumer component of GDP has been driving things because consumers have continued spending no matter what. And we also know that that's much of the upper end of the consumer that's been spending. And we know that Walmart had taken a lot of those as people traded down through an inflationary environment. So.

I mean, to be fair, it doesn't sound like the results on Walmart were bad. It's just a matter of them being trepidatious about, you know what, we don't really know what tariffs are going to do to our input costs. We don't know how much of this we might have to pass through. We don't know what the employment picture looks like with an immigration policy that's still not entirely set in stone. So we have to be careful and not over promise for what's going to happen for the rest of the year.

So I think it was smart. This is something that a lot of companies have done over the last 12 months. They've been very careful not to overpromise. And then you end up seeing their earnings beat expectations. But what the market wants is a much more bright future comment, right? And that's not what we got.

So I think maybe the disappointment is in the idea of, oh gosh, the darling of this consumer space is also now worried and also now being cautious. So maybe we as investors need to be more cautious. And I think you hit it on the head, Dan, that valuations do matter in that environment. They matter because now we've gotten used to the idea that yields are staying higher, rates are staying higher, and now it's how much are we willing to

pay in that environment for maybe not quite as much growth as what we saw in 2024. Yeah, real quick for everything that I get wrong. One thing that we got right, I think was Walmart into earnings. And, you know, I think we did a good job of cautioning people that around the valuation and my biggest concern wasn't going to be comps. And, you know, my concern was potential for an inventory build

And that's exactly what you saw against what was okay sales growth. But the dichotomy between the two was not as robust as it's been over the last few quarters. So margins hung in there. I mean, a quarter was fine. I think the valuation got in the way. Some of the commentary around guidance got in the way.

And I think people are looking at that inventory build and saying, wait a second, this might impact margins going forward. It all makes sense to me in retrospect, and it all sort of made sense going in. Now, I don't want to make the leap and say it's a tell on the consumer because I don't think that's what we're looking at here. I just think it's more a tell on valuation.

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So let's switch gears a little bit. Main event this week, Wednesday after the close, it's going to be NVIDIA earnings. I think the implied move is 8.5%, 9% in either direction. Sometimes the stock moves a lot and sometimes it doesn't, which is a kind of dicey setup for a stock that obviously has come through

a long way in the last few years or so. You know, as I'm looking here, I see NVIDIA was trading. It kind of bounced. It was down 4.5% on Friday. It was up like maybe 2.5%. Now it's up less than 1%. Most of the fateful eight is down on the day. But a couple headlines stick out to me.

right so apple made an announcement this morning that they're going to spend 500 billion dollars on ai build out i love this over the next four years guy just rolled his eyes if you're listening to this a little bit they're going to add 20 000 jobs the other one was coming out at cowan suggesting that microsoft has been canceling data center leases they obviously have built their own data centers but they off

they're also leasing out other data centers and what do they do? They basically lease that out to their customers, right. Of, of Microsoft Azure. So if you were worried about, you know, use cases and customer demand, that would, you know, kind of mean that they're cutting their exposure there. And then there was one other last week, you know, you had this grok three model that was introduced or kind of updated from Twitter or XAI, I guess. And,

This one, in 19 months, they built a foundation model that they are saying is as good as OpenAI with far less money. So if you think about that, lots of pushes, lots of takes as it relates to NVIDIA. Guy, thoughts here because this is going to come down to, obviously, just their ability to kind of beat expectations. All this other stuff could just be noise. Right.

Yeah, I think, look, the Apple thing, it is what it is. You know, I don't think it's a market-moving announcement. I don't think it's an Apple market-moving announcement. I think it's more, you know, to placate

some of the rhetoric that's been going on around building in the United States and stuff, you know, call me in three years and let's see how far along we've gotten down this road. That will remain to be seen. By the way, we've seen other announcements like that, you know, a lot of pomp and circumstance. And, you know, many years later, you don't really see the follow through. But with that said, you're right. NVIDIA is sort of the main event. And,

My concern has been a number of different things, but they're not going to enjoy the margins that they've enjoyed for the last few years in perpetuity. And I think it's going to start to manifest itself, maybe not in the quarter, but I think in potentially some of the guidance going forward. And I don't think

the street is going to react that favorably to it. So we'll see how it plays out. I mean, there are a lot of articles out there to suggest, you know, we might be sort of on the precipice of the turn here. And again, it's not an indictment of NVIDIA or anything they're doing. It's more a stay of like in terms of competition coming,

valuations that just don't seemingly make a lot of sense so yes it's the main event by the way last quarter if you remember the stock didn't move um in the aftermath it moved the next day in a pretty meaningful way so we'll see if that happens again so liz it's kind of interesting going back a few mondays ago remember that deep seek news that came out nvidia closed down 17 on the day it was pretty staggering sort of number for uh you know a market cap over

$3 trillion. It filled in that entire gap at one point last week, right? And so to Guy's point, we're seeing a deceleration. But one of the things I'll just say with expected earnings and sales growth of 50% in 2026 for NVIDIA, that actually moved higher over the last few months or so. So as the stock was grinding near those all-time highs for months before that kind of deep-seek news

You had estimates being ratcheted up. And so at this point with filling in that gap, I'd say expectations are pretty high. How important is this result? You know, even if it's, let's say it's a good number, not too different maybe than Walmart. Good number, maybe some cautious guidance because of all this China talk. And you know what I mean? There's a lot of stuff going on. Does the stock have this sort of reaction or does it drag on the NASDAQ, which already feels a bit heavy?

If it's bad, I think it ends up being a guilty by association trade because NVIDIA is the bellwether for this whole theme in the United States. And the scrutiny that many of these companies had come under in the second half of last year about how much they were spending and whether or not they were investing in the right places to be a part of this AI trade.

will continue. And NVIDIA is who everybody looks at to say, are we still exceptional in the US? Are we still going to win this race in the US? So I think it matters a lot. But similarly, I think it can pull the entire theme upward if things come in better than expected. Again, I don't talk about single stocks, so I'm not going to

opine on whether or not I believe something is or isn't going to happen. But I do think it has the power to move the entire segment. Not that it didn't before, but I think it does even more so now because that competitive environment has changed and it changed with the announcement of Deep

Yeah, no doubt. I'm going to drill down on all that news with Gene Munster. That drops tomorrow morning in your favorite podcast store in our risk reversal feed. But I'll just say this, you know, Dell is down 4%. They report on the week that Apple news you think would be good for Dell if they're going to be spending hundreds of billions of dollars right on a U.S. build out.

here in the States. So, you know, we went from when we started the pod up basically 50 basis points in the S&P, not a huge bounce on a down 1.7% decline on Friday afternoon. And we're seeing a bunch of the names that were leading to the downside are also leading again today. But there were two groups, Liz, that stuck out to me. Staples were up

on Friday, and so was PharmaStocks. Now, these are defensive names that you would expect to be like that. Are these areas that you'd want to move into, right, if you think that we're going to be in a rockier time, or is it the sort of situation that investors come right out of them if we get back on a risk on sort of appetite?

Yeah, I would not want to be in Staples here, mostly because we still have an inflation problem. And I think Staples did really well during the period where companies got away with passing their inflationary costs through. I don't think companies are going to get away with that as smoothly this time. So I wouldn't be piling into Staples, even though it is a very classic defensive trade. If you're looking for classic defense, I think you look at

things like gold. I think you still look at things like cash because if yields are staying this high, you're getting paid to sit in cash. And I think you can look at utilities too, even though it's not really trading like a defensive sector right now. So I would not be piling into staples. However, when you look at pharma, now a lot of times people think about healthcare as a defensive sector, but pharma

and biotech are not part of that defense trade. That's more of a growthy side of the healthcare sector. And I would look at that and I would be having a presence there. That's why healthcare was one of my calls for 2025, because I think as people start to look for growth opportunities outside of technology because of valuations, something that might pop up on the radar is pharma and biotech. Keep in mind though,

A lot of the growth opportunity that comes in pharma and biotech can also come down the market cap spectrum. So don't just necessarily look in the large cap space. All right, guy, last word here. So you have some weakness reversal in the S&P. Let's see where this closes. If it catches some steam like Friday did. I see a VIX that's above $1.

Oh, it's almost 20. Okay. And then we see gold, your gold, it basically, you know, sticking around all time highs. I see the spread between gold and Bitcoin, I think is kind of interesting. You know, it's kind of widening over the last few months or so. Bitcoin seems really heavy. So what is the last thing that you're looking for on a day like today, maybe into Tuesday, Wednesday, when we're gonna get that NVIDIA report? Because that's probably the next big market mover.

Yeah, no, it's interesting. I'm glad you mentioned gold and Bitcoin. You know, Bitcoin, I can't really figure out. It's either been going sideways and making this base for the next leg higher, or it's been completely lagging now for the last month, month and a half. And it's setting up for this move, which I think is possible down to 72,000. By the way,

And strategies, former micro strategies announced another purchase of Bitcoin earlier today. So that's something to watch. But, you know, I'm going to throw one out there that is absolutely on my radar screen and we'll probably talk about it on market call dollar yen below 150 and now, you know, flirting with 149.

This is something that nobody is talking about. But if you remember, if you go back to last summer, specifically in July, dollar yen was around 161. We got a very benign CPI number. Within five minutes, dollar yen was at 157. And the move we saw in the broader market in August was all predicated on

That move, that strengthening yen. So that's something that not enough people are talking about, but that's something I will continue to watch. All right, Liz, last one here. Trump 1.0. He looked at the stock market as a bit of a report card on the administration and how they were doing. If all of these headlines, all of this immigration stuff, all the trade stuff, if it starts to kind of, you know,

tamp down expectations for growth and the stock market starts discounting that, you know, are we likely to see maybe some of those policy, you know, threats kind of pull back a little bit? Because I think the last thing that they want to do is deal with, let's say, a 10% sell off since he took office in late January.

Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to be the one to try to predict what President Trump is going to do. However, I do think at this point, a lot of market participants aren't taking the numbers, so the tax cut numbers, the tariff numbers at face value yet, because we continue to hear that these are negotiation tactics.

If they stop looking like negotiation tactics or if they're not producing the results in the negotiation that we expect and the stock market starts to really take it on the chin across the board, then yes, I do think you probably see a little bit of a pullback. But I mean, I mean, a pullback in his aggressiveness on it.

But the thing that's really tricky about this is that it hasn't necessarily been across the board until recently, right? There've been little pockets that have been affected. So if we have a stock market sell-off that spares nobody where there's nowhere to hide, then I think you're going to get some different messaging from

but it's been confusing messaging so far. There's been a lot of yes, this, and then we take it back and people are having trouble figuring out what's going to stick. And I don't know that that's going to go away anytime soon. Yeah. I think a lot of folks, at least market participants would probably love to hear more at a treasury secretary, uh, Besant, um, you know, because the messaging I think on the economic stuff has been, um, a little helter skelter there. All right, guys, we covered a lot

of ground. Liz is going to be back with Guy and me on Market Call, 1 o'clock on Wednesday. We've got a big week, as we said. Gene Munster is going to drop tomorrow morning. Tom Lee is going to drop Friday morning. Go to riskreversal.com. Get our newsletter. There's a lot of great stuff in there. The New Look newsletter. Our friend CeCe Lagater is helping out on that one. Liz, Guy, thanks so much.