Weekly Roundup 11/08/24 (Trump wins, crypto candidates win, Election implications) (EP.573)
2024/11/8
On The Brink with Castle Island
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Matt
无足够信息构建一句话概述
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Nic
Nic: 特朗普胜选对加密货币市场产生了积极影响,选举当晚比特币交易量激增,Polymarket对选举结果的预测准确率很高,这表明预测市场的有效性。此外,此次选举是一场重大的政治格局调整,将对历史产生深远影响,标志着拉丁裔选民不再是民主党可靠的支持者,共和党获得了更多工薪阶层选民的支持。
Matt: Polymarket的API在选举期间表现稳定且刷新速度快,令人印象深刻。Polymarket对各州选举结果的预测百分百准确,这证明了预测市场的有效性。法国交易员Theo通过自己进行民调,获得了比其他人更准确的市场洞察力,他使用“邻居法”进行民调,规避了“害羞投票者效应”。
Matt: 特朗普胜选对加密货币行业来说是最好的结果,行业将迎来发展机遇。过去几周对加密货币行业来说是充满焦虑的,但特朗普胜选的结果消除了这种焦虑,并预示着行业的黄金时代即将到来。新信息传播结构是推特、播客和预测市场,而传统媒体的影响力正在下降。
Deep Dive
This chapter analyzes Polymarket's performance in predicting the 2024 election, highlighting its accuracy and the impressive infrastructure that allowed it to handle high trading volumes. The role of a French trader who commissioned his own polls is also discussed.
- Polymarket's pre-election forecast on a state-by-state basis was 100% correct.
- High trading volumes on Polymarket during the election.
- A French trader's successful use of unconventional polling methods.
Shownotes Transcript