cover of episode Weekly Roundup 10/25/24 (Stripe acquires Bridge, Polymarket whale, Stables as Fintech 3.0) (EP.569)

Weekly Roundup 10/25/24 (Stripe acquires Bridge, Polymarket whale, Stables as Fintech 3.0) (EP.569)

2024/10/25
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On The Brink with Castle Island
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People
M
Matt
无足够信息构建一句话概述
N
Nic
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Matt: 我关注到Polymarket上出现一位神秘交易员,他重仓押注特朗普胜选,金额高达4500万美元。这笔交易的背后原因尚不清楚,可能是基于某些内部信息,也可能只是单纯看好特朗普。此外,Stripe收购Bridge的交易也值得关注,这笔交易标志着稳定币成为金融科技新时代的开始,Stripe将基于稳定币而非银行轨道构建新的应用,这将对金融科技行业产生深远的影响。 Nic: 我认为Polymarket上的巨额押注并非市场操纵,而是个人大额投资行为。这位交易员可能只是单纯看好特朗普,并非拥有任何内幕消息。至于Stripe收购Bridge,虽然价格可能偏高,但Stripe看重的是Bridge在稳定币支付领域的领先技术和团队。如果监管环境改善,这将成为一笔成功的投资,因为它能帮助Stripe建立基于稳定币的支付网络。这标志着稳定币成为金融科技3.0时代到来的标志,将基于稳定币而非银行轨道构建新的应用。 Nic: 我认为,根据大选结果,比特币价格在当晚可能波动10万美元左右。目前预测市场和模型对大选结果的预测存在差异,预测市场更看好特朗普。此外,Kraken推出自己的Layer 2网络Ink,布宜诺斯艾利斯市将推出基于区块链的数字身份系统,Opera推出了MiniPay钱包,这些都是值得关注的行业动态。由于稳定币交易的便捷性,未来十年将出现更多国家采用美元化。美联储发布的一篇新论文揭示了2023年银行挤兑事件的更多细节,其中一些受影响的银行与加密货币行业有关。

Deep Dive

Chapters
This chapter discusses the prediction market's prediction of the 2024 election and its potential impact on Bitcoin's price. The prediction markets show a divergence from traditional models, and the panelists discuss the potential volatility of Bitcoin based on election results.
  • Prediction markets show 59-62% probability of Trump winning, while models show 51-55%
  • Panelists predict Bitcoin price fluctuation between $100k and $50k depending on the outcome
  • Potential for high volatility on election night

Shownotes Transcript

Matt and Nic are back for more news and deals. In this episode:

  • The Polymarket whale is identified
  • BTCUSD predictions for the election
  • Election models versus prediction markets
  • Stripe acquires Bridge for $1.1b
  • Did the Bridge deal make sense for Stripe?
  • Stablecoins as Fintech 3.0
  • Nigeria frees Tigran Gambaryan
  • Kraken is launching the Ink blockchain
  • Buenos Aires is launching a blockchain-based identity solution
  • Opera launches the minipay wallet
  • A new paper from the Fed gives us new insight into the 2023 bank run
  • Coinbase FOIAs the regulators behind OCP 2.0

Content mentioned in this episode:

  • NY Fed, Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time)

Sponsor notes:

  • Introducing Exchange Flow Metrics): In Coin Metrics' State of the Network issue 282, we introduce Coin Metrics’ new exchange flow metrics for BTC & ETH
  • Withum’s Digital Currency and Blockchain Technology Team specializes in crypto-assets, offering accounting, tax and advisory solutions to fortify trust in a dynamic industry. Contact them today to get started. - withum.com/crypto)