cover of episode Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond

Odd Lots Live: What to Watch on Election Night and Beyond

2024/11/5
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Odd Lots

Chapters

The panel discusses the reliability of prediction markets and polls, focusing on how they should be interpreted and what factors might influence their accuracy.
  • Prediction markets are taken as seriously as any other data point or source of information.
  • Polls have limitations, especially in who is answering the phone and potential biases.
  • Geographic distortions in polling can be interesting but may not provide clear signals.

Shownotes Transcript

It's Election Day in the US, so there's no need for any real explanation of what's at stake. Last night in New York City, we hosted a special live Odd Lots event, where we interviewed some of our regular guests on stage to talk about the vote, as well as the economic and market implications in the days and years ahead — regardless of who wins. First up, you'll hear a conversation about prediction markets, regular markets, and vote-watching with Skanda Amarnath of Employ America, Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro, and prediction markets bettor Zvi Mowshowitz. And then in the second half of the show, we hear from the Council on Foreign Relations fellow Brad Setser on the global environment — what Brad calls an "unhealthy globalization" — that the next president will inherit.

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