cover of episode Hispanic Shift: Why Latino Voters Are Turning Red | 11.16.24

Hispanic Shift: Why Latino Voters Are Turning Red | 11.16.24

2024/11/16
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John Bickley: 本期节目讨论了西班牙裔选民日益转向共和党的原因,以及这一趋势对未来政治格局的影响。大量西班牙裔选民在最近的选举中投票支持特朗普,这一现象引发了广泛关注和讨论,许多政治策略家都在试图解读这一现象背后的原因以及这一趋势是否会持续下去。 Jim Robb: 西班牙裔选民转向共和党的主要原因是通货膨胀和非法移民问题。民调显示,许多西班牙裔选民认为政府在解决非法移民问题上做得不够。尽管特朗普在移民问题上采取了强硬立场,但在2016年大选中,仍有大量西班牙裔选民投票支持他,这表明西班牙裔选民的投票行为并非完全取决于族裔认同,而是更多地取决于自身利益和对国家政策的考量。西班牙裔选民是美国公民,他们与其他美国人一样,关心家庭的福祉,希望拥有良好的工作机会、稳定的物价、安全的街道和安全的边境。民主党人错误地认为西班牙裔选民会作为一个整体投票,忽视了他们对民生问题的关注。 西班牙裔选民的政治倾向与语言能力、宗教信仰、婚姻状况等因素有关,这与其他族裔群体类似。在边境地区,由于非法移民涌入导致公共服务不堪重负,例如医疗和教育资源紧张,这直接影响了当地居民的生活,也加剧了西班牙裔选民对政府的不满。许多西班牙裔选民认为拜登政府故意放任非法移民涌入,这进一步加剧了他们的不满情绪。 强制实施E-Verify系统可以有效阻止非法移民就业,从而减少非法移民数量,这是一种低成本、高效的解决方法。民调显示,大多数西班牙裔选民支持强制实施E-Verify系统。西班牙裔选民日益转向共和党,是因为共和党更关注民生问题,例如物价、边境安全和经济发展。打击犯罪、加强边境管控和强硬的外交政策等问题对西班牙裔等工薪阶层选民具有吸引力。 Jim Robb: 西班牙裔选民对共和党的支持增长,主要源于对经济问题的担忧,特别是通货膨胀和非法移民问题。许多西班牙裔选民认为政府对非法移民问题应对不力,这与他们对安全边境和稳定社区的渴望相冲突。此外,他们也关注物价上涨对家庭经济的影响。尽管特朗普在移民问题上的强硬言辞,但西班牙裔选民仍然选择支持他,这表明他们更关注自身利益和国家政策,而非单纯的族裔认同。西班牙裔选民与其他美国人一样,希望拥有安全稳定的生活环境,良好的工作机会,以及负担得起的物价。他们希望政府能够有效控制边境,解决非法移民问题,并改善经济状况。共和党在这些问题上的立场更符合他们的期望,因此他们转向支持共和党。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are Hispanic voters increasingly supporting Republicans?

Inflation and illegal immigration are key factors. Hispanics, like other Americans, prioritize job security, affordable prices, safe streets, and secure borders. They feel Democrats overlook these concerns.

What do Hispanic voters think about the government's efforts on illegal immigration?

55% of Hispanic likely voters believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays.

How does the Hispanic vote in 2024 compare to previous elections?

More Hispanics voted for Trump in 2024 than in 2016, surpassing even Romney's support in 2012. This trend reflects a growing alignment with Republican values.

What role does assimilation play in Hispanic voters' political choices?

The more Hispanics are comfortable with English and American culture, the more likely they are to vote Republican. This reflects a broader assimilation into American society.

How do Hispanic voters perceive the Biden administration's immigration policies?

68% of Hispanics believe the increased illegal immigration under Biden was purposefully allowed, indicating strong disapproval.

What impact do border states have on Hispanic voting patterns?

Hispanics in border states like Texas and Arizona voted heavily for Trump, reflecting their concerns about illegal immigration and border security.

How do Hispanic voters feel about deportation policies under Trump?

While illegal immigrants may panic, the actual impact will be gradual due to limited resources. However, the lack of deportations under Biden makes any action under Trump seem significant.

What is the Hispanic voter stance on E-Verify legislation?

66% of Hispanics support mandatory E-Verify, which would make it harder for businesses to hire illegal aliens. This policy is seen as a practical solution to curb illegal immigration.

Will the trend of Hispanic voters supporting Republicans continue?

Yes, as Hispanics are predominantly working-class and prioritize issues like low prices, secure borders, and business deregulation, which Republicans emphasize.

What should both parties learn from the Hispanic voter shift?

Hispanics are working Americans who want the same things as other working Americans. Parties should focus on issues that matter to this demographic, such as border security and economic stability.

Chapters
This chapter explores the reasons behind the significant shift in Hispanic voter support towards Republicans, focusing on issues like inflation, illegal immigration, and the Americanization of Hispanic communities.
  • 55% of Hispanic likely voters believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings.
  • Hispanic voters prioritize issues like job security, affordable prices, and safe streets, aligning more with Republican policies.
  • The Americanization of Hispanic communities, with more generations born in the U.S., is leading to a shift in political alignment.

Shownotes Transcript

How Democrats underestimated Hispanic voters and their support for Donald Trump. Get the facts first on Morning Wire.

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