Millions of Bets Flood in on 2024 US Election & Pharmacy Giants are Shrinking
2024/10/16
Morning Brew Daily
Neil Freiman 和 Toby Howell 讨论了 Jane Street 为实习生提供的 25 万美元的年薪，以及这一薪资水平与英国首相和美联储主席薪资的比较。他们还探讨了 Jane Street 的总薪酬构成，包括年终奖金，以及公司员工的平均薪酬。
Neil Freiman 和 Toby Howell 讨论了美国总统大选预测市场的兴起，以及这一市场与传统民调的比较。他们分析了预测市场的优势和劣势，包括其准确性、实时性以及被操纵的风险。他们还探讨了预测市场对大选结果的影响，以及不同利益相关者的观点。
Deep Dive
Prediction markets are gaining popularity as a tool for forecasting election outcomes, offering a potentially more dynamic and real-time alternative to traditional polling. However, concerns exist regarding potential manipulation by wealthy individuals and the overall impact on the democratic process. This election cycle will be a key test of the accuracy and influence of these platforms.
- $1.9 billion has been wagered on PolyMarket, a crypto-based prediction market.
- Kalshi, a US-based platform, saw $12 million in trading volume in its first few days.
- Prediction markets suggest Trump has a lead over Harris, while polls indicate a tie.
- These markets could be more accurate due to 'skin in the game,' but are also susceptible to manipulation.
- They offer a more agile and real-time reflection of events compared to traditional polls.
Shownotes Transcript