Jobs Report Off By 800K!? & Ford’s $1.9B Pivot Away From EV SUVs
2024/8/22
Morning Brew Daily
N
Neal
主持《Morning Brew Daily》播客，提供经济新闻和市场分析。
T
Toby
作为《Morning Brew Daily》播客的主持人，Toby 以其深入的分析和评论在媒体行业中取得了显著成就。
Neal和Toby讨论了美国劳工部对就业报告的重大修正，修正显示过去一年的就业增长远低于之前的报告。这一修正幅度创下2009年以来的最大值，达28%。他们分析了这一修正对劳动力市场和经济增长的影响，并探讨了其对美联储下个月是否降息决定的潜在影响。他们还讨论了导致数据修正的原因，包括每月就业调查的样本量有限以及与州就业办公室更准确数据的差异。此外，他们还分析了其他数据点，例如人们对未来失业的担忧和对未来获得工作机会的预期，这些数据点显示劳动力市场正在发生变化。
Neal和Toby还讨论了最近的联邦调查结果，该调查显示，人们对未来失业的担忧达到历史新高，但同时对未来获得工作机会的预期也在上升。他们认为，这些数据点表明，劳动力市场可能存在大量人员流动，人们预期会被解雇，但也预期很快就能找到新工作。他们还讨论了美联储主席鲍威尔即将在杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话，以及该讲话可能对利率和经济增长的影响。
Deep Dive
The Labor Department revised its jobs estimates, revealing a significant overstatement of job growth by 810,000 in the 12 months ending in March. This 28% downward revision, the largest since 2009, indicates weaker job growth than initially reported, though not entirely unexpected. The discrepancy stems from the limitations of monthly surveys, which are reconciled annually with more accurate but less timely data from state employment offices.
- The U.S. economy added approximately 174,000 jobs per month, not 242,000 as previously reported.
- The 28% downward revision is the largest adjustment since 2009.
- The revision was anticipated and did not cause significant market reactions.
- The jobs report overstatement suggests weaker job growth and potential early signs of labor market cracks.
Shownotes Transcript