cover of episode Santa’s warehouse workers

Santa’s warehouse workers

2024/11/23
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Marketplace

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People
A
Amanda Calhoun
A
Angela Sajobi
C
Courtney Brown
G
Ginger Breedlove
K
Kimberly Adams
K
Kristen Schwab
M
Matt Levin
S
Sadiq Reddy
S
Stevie Bell
Topics
Courtney Brown 指出,沃尔玛和塔吉特对假日消费季的预测存在分歧,这反映出当前美国经济形势的不确定性。她认为,两种观点都可能正确,也可能都不正确,这使得预测假日消费走向变得困难。 Sadiq Reddy 认为,尽管消费者信心指数受到近期政治因素影响而波动较大,但由于就业市场依然强劲,消费者支出不太可能大幅减少。他指出,消费者信心指数的波动性较大,更应关注消费者实际行为而非言论。 此外,他还分析了全球通货膨胀的潜在风险,以及关税、劳动力成本等因素对美国经济的影响。他认为,全球通货膨胀的风险以及劳动力成本上升等因素,都可能导致美国通货膨胀反弹。 Kristen Schwab 则补充了消费者信心指数的最新数据,并指出民主党和共和党对经济的看法存在分歧。 Courtney Brown 认为,一些企业主为了避免关税,正在加快从海外进口商品的速度,以增加库存。她还提到 Stanley Black and Decker 公司由于关税原因增加了库存。 她还关注到下周即将公布的经济数据,包括通胀数据(个人消费支出价格指数)和 GDP 修订数据,这些数据将有助于进一步了解宏观经济形势。 Sadiq Reddy 认为,全球通胀可能卷土重来,美国需要密切关注。他指出,虽然通胀率有所下降,但物价水平尚未调整,这使得消费者和企业仍然感到担忧。 他还分析了关税、劳动力成本、以及低端劳动力短缺等因素对美国经济的影响,并指出这些因素都可能导致美国通货膨胀反弹。 他强调,全球通胀现象表明,全球经济形势对美国经济的影响不容忽视。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why are retailers struggling to fill seasonal jobs this holiday season?

Retailers are struggling because unemployment is low, making it harder to find available workers. They need to be more flexible with scheduling and accommodating different types of workers, such as retirees and those with disabilities.

What are some strategies retailers are using to attract seasonal workers?

Retailers are offering flexible shifts and app-based scheduling to accommodate workers' needs. They are also targeting retirees and disabled workers who may be interested in part-time holiday work.

How has the demand for seasonal workers changed compared to pre-pandemic levels?

Demand for seasonal workers is back to pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated need for 400,000 to 500,000 seasonal workers this year. However, this is lower than last year's hiring levels.

What are the key areas where seasonal jobs are most needed?

The key areas include transportation, warehousing, and retail, with a larger percentage of jobs in e-commerce compared to brick-and-mortar shops.

Why is there a divergence in earnings reports from Walmart and Target regarding consumer spending?

Walmart and Target have divergent narratives about consumer spending due to differing views on the strength of the U.S. consumer. Walmart sees a strong holiday season, while Target does not, reflecting a confusing economic moment.

How does consumer sentiment vary by political party?

Consumer sentiment is split by party, with Democrats more likely to feel bad about the economy and Republicans more likely to feel good. This shift often occurs within weeks of an election.

What are the concerns about inflation and tariffs in the U.S. economy?

Concerns include a potential resurgence of inflation due to global factors and tariffs, which could lead to businesses stocking up on goods to avoid higher costs.

What data points are economists watching closely for the upcoming weeks?

Economists are watching the personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed cares about, and revisions to GDP to gauge the strength of the economy.

How has the adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT been in the past two years?

Adoption of AI tools like ChatGPT has been slower than expected, with about 40% of the U.S. working age population using generative AI in some way. This mirrors the adoption rate of computers in 1984.

Why are some industries slower to adopt AI compared to tech and finance?

Industries outside of tech and finance are more risk-averse and are concerned about legal, ethical, and financial accountability for the content produced using AI.

What is the current state of nurse-midwife programs in California?

California currently has only one master's-level nurse-midwife program at Cal State Fullerton, as the other program at UC San Francisco has paused admissions to shift to a doctoral degree program.

Why are maternal care advocates concerned about the shift to doctoral programs for nurse-midwives?

Advocates are concerned because the shift will make training longer and more expensive, potentially limiting access to care at a time when maternal health care is already in short supply.

What are the benefits of being cared for by a midwife during childbirth?

Midwives have been shown to lead to fewer C-sections and fewer preterm births, making them crucial in addressing the Black maternal health crisis.

How are retail credit card interest rates affecting holiday shopping?

Retail credit card interest rates have reached an all-time high of over 30%, which could impact consumers' decisions to use credit for holiday purchases.

Chapters
Walmart and Target offer contrasting perspectives on holiday spending, creating uncertainty about the state of the consumer. Consumer sentiment is also analyzed, revealing a partisan divide and questioning its reliability as an economic indicator.
  • Walmart and Target present differing views on holiday spending.
  • Consumer sentiment shows a partisan split, with Democrats less optimistic than Republicans.
  • The job market's health suggests continued consumer spending despite fluctuating sentiment.

Shownotes Transcript

Seasonal hiring is in full swing and demand for temporary workers is back to pre-pandemic levels. But unemployment is down, so retailers are gonna have to be flexible to fill those jobs. A lot of those open spots are for warehouse jobs, not brick-and-mortar store positions. Also in this episode: After nearly two years of ChatGPT, who’s using it? And, we visit the only master’s-level nurse-midwife program in California.