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Welcome to the Wyndham Championship Betting Preview. I'm Andy Lack, but before we get to the show, brand new sponsor to talk about, Thrive Fantasy app. Come prop up on Thrive Fantasy this football season. Thrive Fantasy is a daily fantasy sports and e-sports app for player props. With Thrive, you can eliminate countless hours of research and focus only on the top tier athletes that have the biggest impact on the game. You get to choose...
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Okay, the Wyndham Championship. I'm recording this at noon Eastern on Sunday. Welcome to the show, everyone. Looks like it will be a solid week for me at the St. Jude's if Bobby Mack can stick around in the top 30 and Martin Laird can stick around in the top 40. I kept a very light card and basically just went heavy on those two guys as I think the
Those guys were undervalued. I used them in DFS. I bet their finishing position. And if they hit, I'll have a great week. If not, won't be a great week, but they look good as of now. And maybe Scotty Scheffler can make something happen. Not really counting on it though. I am never, ever, ever,
ever, ever going to play a 25% Harris English. If he beats me, he beats me. It is against my creed as a human being to play a 25% Harris English. Clearly, I may need to rethink my creed because
He was 20% of the Travelers, too, when he won. So it's basically been a really good summer for the Chalk, your Hank Lebiotas and your Cameron Tringales of the world. They're not bombing at the rate that I would have expected. So, you know, good for those guys, too. I played Harris English at the U.S. Open when he was like 4%. Those are the times I'm going to play Harris English. But just like we've seen with Louis consistently delivering at above 20% ownership, I'm
These guys are doing it, like I said, at a much higher rate than I expected them to. So well done if you played Harris. We will see what happens. Let's get to the Wyndham. Let's talk Wyndham. Okay, the Wyndham Championship. This tournament was founded in 1938.
as the Greater Greensboro Open. The PGA Tour has been coming to Greensboro for a very long time, and there's a lot of cool history at this tournament. Sam Snead won this tournament at 52 years old in 1965.
That is a record for the oldest player to win on the PGA Tour. He's won this tournament eight times. That is also a record. He won his eighth title 27 years after his first win in 1938. That's another record. Davis Love in 2015 also won this tournament at 51 years old.
What else? Charlie Sifford competed here in 1961. He was the first African-American ever permitted to play in a PGA-sponsored event in the South. So that's cool. And he finished fourth, even cooler. Snedeker shot a 59 here in 2018 with a bogey, shot a 27 on the back. So yeah, Wikipedia, shout out to them.
This is the final tournament before the FedExCup playoffs, and only the top 125 in the FedExCup standings qualify for the playoffs. So obviously, the overwhelming thing that you will hear this week is about motivation. Now, I think it matters, but I will just take you back to the argument for why I did not like Sung Jae Im or Si Woo Kim at the Olympics, because
It's an old NFL phrase, must win does not mean will win. In fact, in the NFL, if you have faded teams against the spread in must win situations, you have been profitable. Now, I don't think that's a perfect analogy for what we have here. I do believe that there is probably something to thinking that maybe if you're playing a matchup between somebody who is 70th in the FedEx Cup standings,
and somebody who is 130th in the FedExCup standings and both of them make the cut on the number but aren't really in contention, would the player who is 130th in the standings maybe be a little bit more inclined to give their best effort out of contention on Sunday?
Definitely. So I am choosing to look at where players are at in the FedEx Cup. I will talk about it, certainly. But if a player is 126th in the FedEx Cup standings and they don't check the boxes that I am looking for from a statistical standpoint, I'm not going to play them just because they need to play well. I think that would be a mistake. Now, like I mentioned,
If I'm deciding between two relatively equal players and one of them really needs to grind out like a 25th place finish over the weekend and the other players comfortably onto the first leg of the playoffs next week, definitely. I think you should factor that in. I think you can use it as a tiebreaker for sure. Just don't be mad if the guy that needs to play well doesn't play well because that happens a lot. People are going to say,
there's no way Ricky Fowler doesn't make the FedEx Cup playoffs. Really? There's no way? It's that inconceivable that Ricky Fowler doesn't make the FedEx Cup playoffs this year? So I think just be aware of it. Don't live and die by it. That's what I'm doing. Okay. Past champions here. Jim Herman won here in 2020.
JT Poston, 2019. Brant Snedeker, 2018. Henrik Stenson, 2017. Siwoo Kim, 2016. Davis Love, 2015. Camilo Villegas, 2014. Patrick Reed, 2013. Sergio Garcia, 2012. Webb Simpson, 2011.
All of those winners were at least in the last six years above 17 under. And more recently, like Herman won at 21 under JT Poston won at 22 under Brant Snedeker won at 21 under. So you typically need to get to around 20 under at least to feel safe. And it's worth noting that seven of the last 10 years, uh,
The winner has been higher than 80 to one. Snedeker won at 28 to one Stenson, one at 14 to one and Sergio won at 40 to one, but we've had a lot of long shot winners here over the years. And just in a vacuum, I think the reason for that is that this course is easy and
When a course is easy, it brings more guys into play. When a course is harder, that tends to weed out the worst players. This course is very easy, depending on the conditions, I guess. But that's kind of what you have at Sedgefield Country Club. Let's talk about Sedgefield Country Club. Sedgefield Country Club is...
has been the host course on and off since this tournament's inception. It was held at Forest Oaks from 1977 to 2007, but it's been back at Sedgefield since 2007. It's a par 70 measuring 7,127 yards.
It is a Donald Ross design. Donald Ross has also designed Eastlake, Detroit Golf Club, Plainfield Country Club, which held the 2011 and 2015 Barclays. There is a Donald Ross filter on Fantasy National if you want to attempt to identify players that play well on Donald Ross courses.
I gave a bit of an overview of what to expect with the Donald Ross course when I talked about Detroit Golf Club a few weeks ago. But the main thing with Ross is the green complexes. And it's a bit more exaggerated at a place like Pinehurst or Seminole where just good luck. If you aren't in the right quadrant, it's an easy three putt if you
Can stay on the green even. And a lot of the time you're running off the green if you're not hitting the green in the right spot. The greens here definitely aren't as pronounced and sloping and beguiling as the
kind of the famous turtleback greens at Pinehurst, but they are still Donald Ross greens. And I was wondering why three putt percentage here is higher than normal because it's not like these greens are super giant by any means or anything, but Donald Ross doesn't tend to make it all that easy for you when you get on the putting surface. So not to step on the stat section, but I do have a very small weight on three putt avoidance. I really think that lag putting might matter some this week.
The greens are also champion Bermuda, which run a little bit faster than your regular Bermuda grass greens. And we see these type of champion Bermuda grass at Quail Hollow, at TPC Southwind last week. So that's nice. They get to play the same service two weeks in a row if you played at TPC Southwind last week. The Roth is two and a half foot Bermuda as well. Again, like we saw at TPC Southwind last
It's just a very typical Carolina golf course. It's a short par 70, 6,000 square foot green. So they are not incredibly tiny greens by any means. They are on average, definitely bigger than what we saw last week at TPC Southwind, but
Green's in regulation percentage here is actually way higher than tour average. It's 71% compared to the tour average of 65%. That doesn't mean that strokes gain approach is less important, though, like every single one of last year's top 20 players gain strokes on approach.
But this is still not a course where I will particularly be looking at like greens and regulation gained, where there's this huge advantage to those who hit a ton of greens and regulation. I think most people will be hitting these greens and regulation. It just depends where on the green you hit it. And I'll touch on that more with the stats.
fairways are on the narrow side, but they're not crazy by any means. Like fairway percentage here is right around 62%, which is tour average. It just kind of depends on how firm it is out there. You really want to capitalize on the front nine. I think is also worth mentioning. The front nine is a lot easier than the back and pretty much just to put a bow on this course, uh,
I guess you could say, like I mentioned, its biggest defense is probably the Donald Ross greens and all of the undulations and runoff areas that come with that. But if it's soft, this course is really easy and players will not be getting the full experience of those slopes on the greens.
Exactly what we saw at Royal St. George's. For the course to have its true character, it has to play firm and fast. If it's soft, then the balls aren't going to be running off the greens and into the bunkers as much, and it's going to be a lot closer to target golf and play very easy, which is fine.
What has been over the past couple of years at the PGA tour because the PGA tour likes birdies and they don't want players to complain. I would encourage you if you are weird like me and into that stuff. Check out the no laying up podcast with Peter Costas. They do an incredible deep dive on how the PGA tour sets up courses and how that works.
pretty much benefits the same skill set every week. I think it's fascinating. They identify an issue that I think is pretty problematic, but I also recognize that I am in the vast, vast minority in terms of people that actually care about that stuff and like the purity of golf courses and then playing how they were meant to be designed. I recognize that no one else cares. That's fine. I get it. So let's dig into what I am looking for this week.
birdies
Over the past couple of years, this course has ranked as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. I think 30 players finished at 10 under par or better last year, and 47 players finished at 10 under par or better the year before. The cut is generally around minus two or minus three, and you have to get to 21 or 22 under to win this tournament. So anytime we are talking about low scoring, I'm going to be looking at birdies or better gained and opportunities gained,
Not rocket science, right? Like we're looking for players that thrive and are more comfortable going low in easier scoring conditions. It might be a good week to bring back average strokes game per round and easy scoring conditions to try and identify some of those players. I certainly will be when I make a separate mixed condition model. So as I mentioned with this course, while the greens aren't by any means difficult to hit, uh,
Being an accurate iron player is still very important because you want to be putting from the right spot. You don't want to be above the hole and the statistics bear that out.
On average, top 10 finishers have gained four strokes on approach here. Every single one of the top 20 on the leaderboard last year gained on approach. Herman gained 5.9 strokes on approach last year. JT Poston, who won in 2019, he was first in the field in approach. Snedeker in 2018 was third. Stenson in 2017 was third. Siwoo Kim in 2016 was fifth. If you look at the five-year average strokes gained of winners...
Off the tee, they've ranked 28th. Approach, they've ranked 5th. Around the green, they've ranked 22nd. And putting, they've ranked 18th. But like I mentioned last week, approach is king every week. So you have to get a little bit more specific here. And I think looking at the proximity distances was kind of interesting to me and kind of helped me say, okay, how can we hone in a little bit more and try and differentiate?
The one thing that stood out to me is that 28% of shots at Sedgefield come from 150 to 175 yards. Now, the tour average for that is 20%. That is a massive difference, and it is the only yardage range where Sedgefield's rank is really above average. So 125 to 150, 175 to 200, and 200 plus, they're all right around standard to tour average, but then you just have this massive difference
bump where so many more of the approach shots are from 150 to 175 and a big reason for that is that many of the par fours are a very similar length so eight of the par fours on this course measure between 400 and 450 yards that is a
ton. So I think it will be awfully important this week to look at players who have done well from 150 to 175, as well as players that perform well on those short to medium length par fours. As far as the off the tee stuff goes across the past 10 winners, they've ranked 39th in driving distance and 17th in driving accuracy. Driving distance is lower here than tour average. I don't
I don't know if I would totally call this a club down course, but you definitely don't have to hit a ton of drivers here. And we're talking about a place where Patrick Reed and Webb Simpson and Brant Snedeker and JT Poston and a 51-year-old Davis Love have all won at...
it's really, really hard to make an argument that distance matters that much here. Reading a quote from Henrik Stenson, he didn't hit driver here at all. I actually think he may have won this tournament without even carrying a driver. Don't quote me on that, but here's the quote that I'm referring to. He says...
Have left the driver out this week. Strong three wood, four wood, and two iron. Putting myself in position and trying to stay out of the Bermuda rough. If you do that, you have pretty short clubs and you can be accurate with your second shots. You get a lot of eight and nine irons and wedges in.
There you go. Ding, ding, ding. That 150 to 175 range. That's an eight iron. That's a nine iron. That's a pitching wedge range for all of these guys. And here we have Henrik Stenson agreeing with that and saying like, that's what you need here. It's a lot of that because all of the similarly lengthened par fours and two of the par threes measure 174 and 175 yards. So that's another thing to really consider this week. But
But getting back to my initial point, though, I do think it's important to hit the fairways. There was a decent, a pretty decent, I should say, correlation between strokes gained off the tee here where, you know, guys who play well are generally gaining in that category, not as much as they were on approach or putting. But listen, anytime you have sticky two and a half foot Bermuda rough, guys are going to tell you you want to be in the fairway here. So I'm looking at some off the tee stuff, but
not necessarily fairways gained or good drives gained or kind of any ancillary off the tee stats. I think if you just keep it simple with off the tee and then really load up on approach and proximity and birdies are better and opportunities gained and Bermuda putting,
That's what I would do personally. That's where I would go. As far as short game, it's never going to be a huge thing that I look at such an easy course with easy greens to hit. I'd rather look at three putt avoidance and short game here. These guys are hitting 72% of their greens.
If you are having to rely on your short game too much here, you are most likely not contending at this tournament. In fact, the top three finishers last year, Jim Herman, Billy Horschel, and Kevin Kistner, they all lost strokes around the green. So that kind of tells the story with that. Instead, like I mentioned, I just throw some three-putt avoidance in there because it's more likely that
that when they hit a bad approach shot, they are just going to have a really hard putt than a chip. Of course, if they hit a really bad approach shot, they will have a chip. But again, that player is not really doing anything for you anyway. Um, so there you go. What else? Um,
Strokes game, putting Bermuda, or even more specifically looking at players who've played well on champion Bermuda, like I mentioned, TPC Southwind, Quail Hollow, Jackson Country Club, all of those places, very helpful to look at. Bermuda is a grainy surface that certain players are just more comfortable on than others. So definitely worth looking at. Donald Ross courses. As I mentioned, there is a Donald Ross filter on Fantasy National, although I
I have a very strange memory that I made a joke about how all of the guys that rated out amazingly on Donald Ross courses all bombed a couple weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage. I know Webb bombed, and some of the other Donald Ross guys are like Snedeker and Siwoo, and I don't think those guys played great either. So...
I'll look at it. But as I've mentioned, Donald Ross isn't like Pete Dye. I think that's why he's a better designer than Pete Dye. He doesn't really tend to recycle stuff. Like I said, his greens are always very undulating, but it just really depends. Like,
I don't think that this course is very much like Oak Hill or Pinehurst at all. It's just way too easy and set up so much differently. And even a place like Detroit Golf Club, sure, maybe a little bit because they're both easy, but even so, different grass type, different rough. Detroit Golf Club has a lot of rough around the greens and Sedgefield has a lot of runoff areas. So,
I'll throw a very small weight on it in a mixed condition model, but definitely not something I'm living and dying with. Eastlake, I think, is a fair comp course, even though it's definitely harder than Sedgefield, but at least visually it's similar. I think for comp courses, if you're going to do any of that stuff, just shorter, easier Bermuda courses like Wiley, I guess. I think
I think Sawgrass and TPC Southwind are kind of a little too hard and they have too much water where this is like, just hit the fairway, hit some tight wedges, and I think you'll be good to go. I do think that maybe some experience like
Any classical Donald Ross course, the more you play it, the more you learn about it because he's such a good designer and he leaves so many hidden nuggets within his designs where there's some nuance. And that's why you see players that love his courses every year play well, like Snedeker and Webb and Davis Love that they play here every year and they know exactly where to hit it and where to miss. So yeah, I think guys who've played well here, I like it. I think it probably helps, but
But in a total vacuum, if we're just going to completely narrow it down, I think you can hone in on players that are awesome from 150 to 175, good Bermuda grass putters, and guys who make a bunch of birdies and maybe thrive in easy scoring conditions.
I think you're going to be in really good shape if you kind of just look at those three things as kind of your main criteria. If they're accurate off the tee and a good lag putter and good on short to medium length par fours and maybe have some nice Donald Ross history, that's all great bonus, but I
I don't think this week should be very hard in theory. It's golf. So take that statement with a grain of salt, but a lot of weeks I break all this stuff down and I provide a bunch of angles and I kind of try and hone in on stuff. But a lot of the time I'll do all this digging and kind of come to the conclusion that, well, there's actually a lot of different types of styles of players that could win here. And I feel like Sedgefield, uh,
It feels very specific to me. I don't know if that is just because when I think of the guys like Webb and Davis Love and Snedeker and JT Poston, they all have very similar games to me, but all those guys are really good wedge players and really good Bermuda putters. So there you go. Maybe it's not worth overthinking, but here's what the model shot out. So
First one is all of the metrics that I talked about. And the top 10 in that were number one is Louie, who's just on an absolute tear right now and rating out number one for me almost every week. Two is Kokrak. Three is Lucas Glover. Four is Hank Labiotta. Five is Kevin Strillman. Six is Sam Burns. Seven is Harold Varner. Eight is Brian Stewart. Nine is Adam Schenck.
10 is Hideki Matsuyama. I just named 10 guys that I literally never played. So we're going to have to navigate that somehow. The second one I wanted to, the second one I wanted to just get a feel of the player that I think would work here. So I did course history, history at Donald Ross courses, small weight on that Bermuda putting,
and easy scoring conditions. So just kind of all of the, I wanted to filter out and just find some of the players that were fitter fitting all of the characteristics of that type of guy that we're looking for here. And the top 10 were, uh,
Not surprisingly, number one is Webb Simpson, who seems to be tailor-made belt for this course. Number two is Kevin Kisner. Number three is JT Poston. Number four is Brian Harmon. Number five is Patrick Reed. Number six is Sungjae M. Number seven, Patton Kazire. Number eight, Zach Johnson. Number nine, Sam Burns. And number 10, Jason Kokrak. So you have guys like Kokrak and Sam Burns that are...
They're everywhere. They're rating out extremely well for me. But anyway, let's get to the early leans. I do not have a ton of guys that I can confidently say that I'm committed to at this point other than two players who I both wrote up in my Roto Baller article that I wrote yesterday. I want to wait, and I know I say this a lot of weeks, but
I like having all of the strokes gained metrics from TPC Southwind. And I know Barracuda doesn't have strokes gained, but I like having all that data at my disposal. So I didn't want to do too much on some of the guys that are
in contention at Barracuda or are still playing the FedEx St. Jude's because that Sunday round matters to me. I think it's a momentum builder. I want to have all of the stats at my disposal from that tournament if a guy is playing the prior week. So keep in mind that guys like Louie and Webb and Zala Torres and Sung Jae and Patrick Reed and
Adam Scott and Hideki and Kokrak and Burns, like all those guys that are playing in the FedEx St. Jude's field, I still have to really dig into. But the one guy that I can confidently say that I am probably going to get there with, and this is just a guy that I bet all the time. He's it's very on brand for me, but I am just such a sucker for Russell Henley. And I look at what he's done here.
finished ninth last year, 31st, 46 in his other starts. Okay, whatever. But he's number one in this field in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. He
He's positive on Bermuda grass greens. He really had it going there with a 13th at the U S open and a 19th at the travelers. He contended at both of those tournaments. So his performance there, in my opinion, you see 13th and 19th. He was in the mix on Sunday at both of those tournaments. So I think it's a little better than a 13th and a 19th and then an 11th at the John Deere where I bet him and he missed a cut at the open, whatever.
Point being, he gained 6.3 strokes on approach at the John Deere and 6.9 on approach at the U.S. Open. He's finally starting to putt better. He's gained strokes putting in three consecutive measure starts. I think this is a perfect horse for him. He's second in approach, 17th in opportunities gain, second in proximity from 125 to 150 yards, and seventh in that key proximity distance of 150 to 175 yards. So,
I like Russell Henley. I always like Russell Henley, but he is just a guy that I have become completely enamored by his iron play, and I really think he's going to win soon. So I'm probably going to play Russell Henley. The other guy that
I'm probably pretty committed to. And again, a very on brand play for me, a guy that I feel like I, I'm so high on him longterm and I'm so high on his talent level that I bet him quite a bit. And that's Taylor Gooch and Taylor Gooch is,
There's nothing about Sedgefield that screams Taylor Gooch to me, although he did finish 25th year last year and gained 6.7 strokes ball striking. But Taylor Gooch, he just consistently keeps making cuts and playing really good golf. And he's made 13 of 16 cuts this season. He's made seven in a row. He quietly just finished 33rd at the open. He also finished 44th at the PGA. You know I'm a sucker for
those guys that, you know, they're, you can tell how good somebody is. That's, that was my argument with Cameron Tringali. It's like Tringali isn't even qualifying for majors. Whereas I know he's beating up on lesser competition and weaker fields, but like you have guys like Lanto and Taylor Gooch that are like getting into these majors and
and making the cut and playing well. And I think that's like a better barometer for how good you are at golf. I think a 33rd at the open is more impressive to me than a 12th at the Valero Texas open, but that's just me. And I look at someone like Gooch and I just see a Max Homa S trajectory for him where I'm not saying he's the second coming of Tiger Woods by any means, but I think he's better than,
talent-wise than his results than we have his results. And it's not like his results aren't bad by any means, but he hasn't won yet. And that's where I kind of think that we could still be catching Gooch on an upswing here. He actually ranks number one in this field in strokes gain approach over his last 36 rounds. So I just...
you know, it's hard for me to believe that he isn't due to have some really great performances down the stretch with how good he's striking his irons. His short game is good. He's gained strokes around the green and five straight starts. Not that that matters a ton here, but he's just a really well-rounded player. He's been putting well, he's gained strokes, putting in three consecutive starts. Bermuda has been no, by no means been his best surface historically, but,
But he did gain 2.7 strokes putting on champion Bermuda at the Wells Fargo. And he putted well during the Florida swing on Bermuda at the API and players as well.
He's just consistently solid across the board in basically everything except off the tee. The driver's been a little shaky, but I think he can club down and get away with that here. He's 26 in opportunities gain, 26 in birdies or better gain, and 23rd in that key proximity range of 150 to 175 yards. So I really like Taylor Gooch.
I really like Russell Henley. A couple other guys that caught my interest. I think Zach Johnson is definitely in play here. I liked what I saw when I dug into Zach Johnson, probably more as a DraftKings play. I liked what I saw when I dug into Brendan Todd as well as a DraftKings play. I think this is going to be a very popular Varner week. And I think if people think Varner is going to play well this week,
Probably not going to happen. This feels like a spot where everyone is going to want to play Varner, but I get it. So I'm not going to remember. Those guys like Harris English and Louie and Harold Varner and Cameron Tringali, they're delivering this year. So I don't have...
grounds to stand on with that. I think Harold Varner is fine here, but for me, I'm really clued in right now to Russell Henley and Taylor Gooch. And I'm going to have to see how I feel about the top of the board. Like I mentioned, like all of those guys that are playing right now at the FedEx St. Jude, just kind of in a gut reaction. None of them really are popping out to me that much. Like I, I don't have a ton of excitement right now about a,
a Louie or a web or a Zala Taurus or a song J or a Patrick Reed or a Justin Rose or an Adam Scott or a Hideki or a Coke rack or burns. I'm going to end up playing one of those guys and maybe two of those guys, but just kind of on, on gut instinct right now,
I think there are some red flags with all of those guys. So the only guys that I feel pretty confident will be kind of on my card and, and I will be featuring primarily in DFS are Henley and Gooch. And like I said, I,
I like Todd a lot and I like Zach Johnson a little bit as well. Okay. That'll do it. Let's get out of here. I am excited to watch the rest of, uh, the FedEx state Jews this afternoon. Like I said, hopefully Scotty Scheffler can make a nice little run here, but, uh,
You know, if you have Harris English, that's probably what's going to happen. And I have a couple of friends that do have Harris English. So it wouldn't be the worst outcome in the world. I should say, maybe I'm overreacting a little bit. Um,
I will be back on Tuesday. That episode is going to come out a little bit later on Tuesday afternoon. Usually those come out pretty early on Tuesday morning. It's probably going to come out later on Tuesday afternoon this week because I have the great Rick Gaiman.
joining me for the betting preview of the Wyndham Rick Gaiman yeah someone I have been talking to for a very long time since the very beginning Rick actually followed me when I had like 17 followers so Rick is a great guy obviously you know him he's about a hundred times more famous than me so that should be a very great show that I am very much looking forward to and until then
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