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All right, great show for you guys today with Joe Idoni, TorPix on Twitter. He is the co-host of the Preferred Lines podcast. He does a jock market show on Wednesday nights as well. Just one of the smartest and nicest guys I've gotten a chance to talk to. And we are giving you in this show our final U.S. Open picks. This was recorded on a Monday night. This is my third podcast in a row, so bear with me. I think I held up all right. But this is it.
the bets, US Open, a lot of pandering, a lot of sneaking around, a lot of early leans. But here it is. These are my picks and Joe's picks. You're going to want to listen if you're having a difficult time making some decisions with your card. But before we get into my conversation with Joe, I want to tell you guys about BetUS, a great place to place all of these bets that me and Joe are about to tell you about. BetUS is an
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All right. I have Joe Idoni on the line here from the Preferred Lines podcast joining me for the U.S. Open betting preview. I know that you are just fresh off your own betting preview yourself, man. So I really do appreciate you joining me here. How's it going, man? It's going good. What's good, Andy? Yeah, happy to do it. Love talking golf, especially major championship week. So I'm here, man. Let's let it rip.
Would you say that this is... In terms of ranking the majors, where would you put the US Open for your own personal enjoyment? It's tough because I have... The Masters just is special. Just because...
You know what you're going to see every year. First of all, it's the first major. So you have months of building up to it, six months of anticipation. And then you just kind of have the picturesque sort of frames in your mind from what you've seen in years past. But the U.S. Open is firmly second for me. I love hard golf.
I like when they sort of challenge the players and you see guys really grinding for pars and doing their best to avoid bogeys. So I like watching that kind. I think that it breeds the most competitive leaderboards down the stretch. And I love sort of the, the course selection that they usually go about interesting this year. Like anytime you can get,
and play a U.S. Open that is going to challenge the best players in the game to essentially break par on what is basically a municipal course that's $60 for you or I to go play 18 holes like year-round is really cool, and I like that they do that, and I'm excited for this week.
I'm super excited, too. I am going there on Thursday night. I can't wait to be there, man. I would say I would give the U.S. Open a slight edge to me over the Masters because I like the Father's Day aspect of it, too. Like, I've been to...
I've been to five of the last eight and a couple of them with my dad. Most of them were with my friends. This time I'm going with like all my high school buddies that a lot of them live in San Diego. But I love like the Father's Day aspect of it. I love that it's in the
middle of the summer, like right when it's like, okay, it's summertime now, you know, masters, you kind of get like, all right, like it's spring, we're getting going, but now it's like, it's summertime, 4th of July, right around the corner. I'm with you. I love these golf courses. I love, um,
I think every single year there should be one tournament, just one where the winning score is over par. Yeah. Yeah. Without a doubt. It makes for awesome Sunday finishes. I feel like always...
You know, I'm not going to disparage a birdie fest here and there, but I want my major championships to play close to even par and it will reward the player. Obviously that plays the best for 72 holes. We saw that last year with Bryson and even his winning score last year was so, you know, I think it may have been further under par than they would have wished, but there weren't that many guys under par, frankly, in general, in the whole tournament. So it's,
He just played so fantastic that there was really nothing that they could do setup wise that I think would have kept him around four or five under par. He was always going to win that thing. I think you're right. I think it was, there were like 20 players under par after round one at wing foot. And by the end, I think that Bryson was the only one. I think he won at five under, and I think he won at one by five shots and Wolf was at even, I think. Yeah, I think you're right.
So anyway, dude, I have talked a lot about this course already. I have released like a full kind of breakdown for my Sunday pod. I just recorded a podcast with PGA Splits where we get into a bunch of kind of the metrics and stuff like that. So I'm blue in the face from talking about Torrey Pines. I would rather just kick it to you and you kind of tell me the big things that kind of stick out to you this week about Torrey.
Yeah, well, listen, I kind of defer to guys like you and PJ Splits on like course type stuff because I'm more of –
I'm more of like a feel type better. Like I bet probably with my heart more than looking and diving into too much statistical stats and in course architecture analyzations. But for me, anytime I think U.S. Open, it's distance. That's king. You've got to be able to hit it far enough if you aren't in the top six.
50 in the field in terms of distance off the tee. I'm essentially crossing you off this week. Even good players like Webb Simpson and guys like, you know, even Terrell Hatton and guys like that. I just don't think that they have the length to compete here. So you can kind of whittle the field down to a pool of maybe 25, 30 guys and
And then go from there, right? And then you bring in your stats. So for me, Torrey's always been a second shot golf course ever since I sort of watched what Mark Leishman did a few years back where...
sprayed it all over the ballpark. It didn't matter. He hit three fairways on the day and still shot the best round of the day on Sunday at the course. So tiny greens around the green game, the ability to not make bogey and just the guys that we typically look to to play hard U.S. Open grind fest well are going to play well here again. I completely agree. I got one more question for you before we dive into the board. Have you heard about the graduated rough chatter?
Yes. Is that, so with you being on site, is that a real thing that's going to happen? Well, I am not on site yet. I'm heading out on Thursday. I live in LA, but I'm heading out on Thursday. No, I'm referring to the Paul Tesori comments on the Tour Junkies podcast where he was like, I think that the way that they are going to combat the distance thing last week is by making the rough things
Yeah.
I hate that idea. I don't think that they're going to do that. I hope that they don't do that. Logistical nightmare. Ever do that. Okay. So if you hit it 285 off the tee, you're going to hit a lot more fairways than someone that's hitting it 320 by nature. That's your advantage, right?
So players are already at the disadvantage and the downside to hitting it really far. And you can go and you can analyze this from a PGA store tour standpoint to the guys and the buddies that you play with on a Saturday morning. Like the guy that hits it the furthest is going to have the biggest misses, right?
It's just how golf is. So they're already going to have a wider range. It's already more difficult for them to hit fairways. And now you're going to make the rough play and penalize them even further for being long. I hate that idea. I hope that they don't do it. And I would be really, really shocked if that was their method of tempering and negating what Bryson and Matt Wolfe did last year. Because I didn't think it was a problem.
I agree with you. I don't think that they can, to be honest with you. Like, I think, by the way, if they're able to do it at all, it would have to be very subtle. Like we're talking about like maybe like a half an inch or something like that, because if you make it too pronounced, you completely lose the integrity of the course. Like,
Reese Jones redesigned this course like multiple times. He came in in 2001 and 2019. Again, that wasn't part of his plan. If you make it to, if you make it to pronounce, people are going to notice it on TV. And it's just, that's not Torrey Pines. Like that's not the way that the course was designed. So I'm so fascinated to see what the USGA does this week. I think they've got some pressure. You know, I think that the, the Kiowa,
glowing reviews. Like no one said a bad word about Kiowa and you know, they've had their fair share of criticisms like chambers Bay in the past, like Aaron Hills before everyone said was too easy. And my only concern with the distance thing and the strategy of favoring bombers is that usually when something happens with the USGA, they overcompensate like everything.
The 16 under that Brooks won at Bryson Hells. I got Bryson and Brooks all over my mind lately. Who doesn't? The 16 under that Brooks won at Aaron Hells, the next year I was there. It was unfair. Shinnecock was downright unfair. They lost it. They made it completely unfair. So my only concern is like,
Are they so angry about what happened with Bryson? Cause I, I can tell you as somebody that's played winged foot before, that is not the way that course is supposed to be playing. That is not, that was not Tillinghast plan. I'm the, my only concern is that they like over try and overcompensate to what happened with Bryson and do something stupid. I'm concerned about that as well. I hope that they don't. I think that they've had that propensity in the past and,
Penn City in the past. I think that, you know, obviously Mike Davis in the USGA tend to overdo things like you say, but he's kind of on his way out. Yeah. I think this is his last one. I don't think that he wants to
go out with like doing something radical like this. Look, hitting it far is not like a God given ability. It is a learned and practiced skill and nothing proves that further than what Bryson did. Like if these guys that hit it to 80 want to hit it three 20, guess what? You can't.
you just got to work your ass off, right? You got to get in the gym. You've got to get stronger. You've got to start swinging harder. You've got to start swing training. Like anyone can like Bryson was not long. He wasn't, that was not the driver was not a strength of his game. And he changed himself, his body, his game to, to add that skillset. So I think that trying to diminish that with,
with how you set up a golf course to penalize someone who hits it a long way is not the right way to go about things for, for the future of the game in general. And especially for a United States championship.
All right. Well, I'm glad we're on the same page with that. I, again, I I'm very antsy because I heard those comments about the graduated rough and I was like, what are they thinking with that stuff? So it remains to be seen. I hope we are right about it. Let's get into the top of the board. So I gave you these tiers and,
Um, all numbers by the way, are courtesy of bet us use promo code, pick the pup for a 125% bonus on your first deposit at bet us.com. But Joe, as always feel free to throw out any numbers that you have gotten. I've been looking at that odds checker grid. There are some interesting things going around, but we'll just talk about these guys today.
at 21 and below for now i'm seeing john rom at 10 dustin at 14 brooks at 16 bryson at 16 jordan spieth at 18 rory at 20 zander at 20 colin morikawa at 20 justin thomas at 20 let's throw patrick can't lay in at 25 and then stop there who has your attention in this range so in
Anyone who's ever followed me throughout the last couple of years at Tour Picks on Twitter knows that I'm firmly a founding member, I like to say, of Team Brooks. I bet Brooks at almost every major. He's been very good to me. I'm not going to stop here.
I have zero, zero concerns about what we saw last week at the Palmetto Championship. Just as I had zero concerns coming off of what was it, the Byron Nelson right before the PGA. Like he played like crap there, missed the cut, came to the PGA and was right there in the final group. So I think that he possesses the most value. I got an 18 to one earlier today. You'll see it anywhere from 16 to like 18 right now.
I'm not the, I'm just not the better. That's going to run to the counter and bet the consensus favorite. So for me, it came down to that sort of next tier and weighing sort of the pros and cons of each. I think that Brooks is game is in great form. The one sort of downside is he, he doesn't have a great track record at Torrey Pines. I don't think he's broken par in like his last seven rounds out there. So, um,
That's a bit worrisome. That said, the driver seems to be firing on all cylinders. The approach play is there. He's giving himself plenty of opportunities both on the greens and in major championships. And there's just a trust factor there for me where I feel like if I'm going to bet someone under 20 to 1, I'm confident that he is going to give me everything at a major championship.
I have constructed this narrative in my head that there's too much noise surrounding the entire Brooks and Bryson situation. Does that concern you at all?
I'll tell you right now, I'm going with my non-golf fans high school buddies. And all they're talking about is how excited they are to yell at Brooks and Bryson. Are you concerned at all that there's just a lot of noise just to play devil's advocate, Joe? Yes.
U.S. Open 60-1 in 2017. U.S. Open 34-1 in 2018. This year in Phoenix, 55-1 on the back of four missed cuts. 50-1 at the PGA Championship this year when everyone said he couldn't walk. Are you worried that he's too much the center of attention this week?
So partially, I think that he was the center of attention at like Bethpage, which also played really tough. And he came in there and he sat down there and he gave the whole spiel of majors are easier. And I'm the king, you know, and this is my throne. And he still played well on the backs of that. I think that.
I don't know, Brooke, so it's hard for me to really factor in these things like what's going on in his head mentally. But from everything that I see sort of from the outside looking in,
He needs that chip on his shoulder. Like he needs that added bit of me versus the world or me versus team Bryson and these fans, you know, like I feel like that brings the best out of his game. Allah, like something we saw like,
the last dance related with like Jordan, where he would sort of manufacture these rivalries in his head of like someone chirping him on the bench. And like, all of a sudden he goes for 45 the next game. Like, I think that Brooks has that ability to play his best when he feels slighted. Like I can remember like him taking the, the words of like Brandel at the masters a couple of years ago and like using that as fuel to sort of,
continue to motivate him to play his best to answer your question. I don't really know. I, I want to think that it's going to have the outside, maybe potentially circus atmosphere of the fans. I think it's going to have less of an impact on Brooks than it will on Bryson, but I,
There's no doubt that the media and everything surrounding them and the questions that they're going to have to answer in the interviews and the press conferences before and after every round about this has to be somewhat of a distraction naturally for anybody. I think you're right. I was worried. I think it's interesting that you frame it that way because on first thought,
My thought was this is actually the least slighted that Brooks has ever felt because he is flying so high right now. Now he's Mr. Barstool. He's taking pictures in tight white jeans at fake boxing matches. Wouldn't you say, Joe, that like 85%, maybe 90% of the overwhelming public is Team Brooks? You know, I think...
that at first glance is like he's a little high on his own supply for me right now and I like him a little better when there's the funky pictures of him not being able to bend down and no one's even talking about him at all but at the same time I do think you're kind of right in the sense that he's just kind of over this a lot of it too and Bryson is the defending champion we're digging so deep into narrative street right now by the way for us to like I think it's fun to talk about but
I have no idea. Like I was, I was arguing with Luke about this on Twitter about like how oblivious is Brooks and Bryson to this? Like we have no idea how much they really, really care about this. Yeah. I think that like, he's been very clear and upfront and like one of the nice kind of things about golf is if you really, if,
sort of dive into what these guys tell you, a lot of the times it's the truth. And it's kind of unique because in other sports, and I've talked about this before, but like in football, for instance, it's hard to really glean something from,
the answers that they'll give you, whether it's a coach or a player in the press conference, because they're protecting the sanctity of the locker room and they don't want to give you anything that you can use as bulletin board material or to give you a competitive advantage or let you inside their heads or inside their playbook. Like it's very much a protected guard up.
Sometimes golfers in Brooks particular would just tell you what's on their mind. And he's told us time and time again, that it's all about the major championships for him. I think like my gut tells me, and I followed him and,
In Jenna on Instagram and they had the chef in Congaree and like by Saturday morning, they were already in LA, which like tells me they already had the place booked. Like they already had the plane set up. Like they knew they were going to miss the cut and go get there and just get a couple of drives off, walk the fairways. Which by the way, solid ball striking.
Really good ball. Really good off the tee. Like he had a couple of bombs, like three 50, three 60, and he had the little butter cut work. And so I think that more so for me, I think that his game and the recent finishes and the tournaments that he's played in are just a little bit better than what we've seen of Bryson, particularly at the masters, particularly at the PGA championships. So these big time events, uh,
Brooks has showed up and we can kind of trust that in golf is so hard. Like, you know, there's Andy, like it's, we're trying to find narratives and predict things and the sport that's probably the most hard to predict out there. So you've got to just find something that you feel like you can lean on. And for me, it's, it's that major championship upside of Kepka. Let me ask you a DJ question because you, when you mentioned Congaree, you had me starting to think about DJ and,
Public perception better or worse on DJ after Congaree? I don't really know that it's changed. I don't feel like a lot of people really even tuned into that event, but he was so good for a while until that triple, which looking back on it, like with the way that that thing finished, had he been able to get in there for bogey instead of triple, he would have been able to get in there for bogey.
So he just had a really bad chip from like greenside and then missed the putt and then rushed his second putt, which was like his first three putt. I think they said in a hundred plus holes, like just get that up and down for bogey and you're going to play off and he probably wins. Right. Yeah. That's, that's the point I was trying to make is that I don't think that, you know, with Brooks,
nothing that he did at Congaree, it was awesome that he gained strokes off the tee and it was awesome that he hit the ball well, but nothing that he did at Congaree was going to affect how I felt about him for this week, let's say. Now, with DJ...
I actually didn't necessarily feel that way. I did feel like DJ had a little bit more to prove because the ball striking with DJ had been so bad. Like his irons just hadn't been good for like a couple of months. So my best case scenario with DJ was that his irons and ball striking turned around, but that coming out of the week, the public perception was like,
And that happened like that. That's like exactly what happened. So I'm in on DJ at 18 to one. I,
If we're going to give Brooks a pass for not caring about Congaree, the idea that anything that happened over the weekend with DJ, that he cared about that, come on. He was at that tournament because they were giving him an award for being the ambassador to South Carolina. He needed to show up there and figure some things out. He did that over the first two days and was
woke up on Saturday morning and said, oops, I kind of wish I was in Brooks's position and clearly mailed it in and used no mental energy whatsoever of those last two days. Cause he didn't want to stay in South Carolina one more minute longer and have to accept a trophy either. So I kind of love the situation that we're in with DJ right now, where he showed me everything that I needed to see ball striking P
People are kind of like piling dirt on him because he lost to, you know, he didn't win in a scrub field. Like just looking on Fantasy National right now, he's the second least projected owned guy at the top next to Justin Thomas. I kind of love the situation that I'm in with DJ right now. Yeah, I don't blame you one bit. There's not many opportunities that you're going to catch right
the number one player in the world who's won the tour championship within the year, who's won a major within the year at, uh,
16, 18 to one, like heading in. I mean, the, the, the concerning thing is the last three, like big time events, right? Like he didn't play well at the players. He made the cup, but he didn't play well. Then he missed the cut at the masters going back there. Then he missed the cut of the PGA championship. So I think that he's volatile in a way, but,
And a lot of it for him comes down to the putter, which I do see that he gained with the putter last week. But it was really the approach play that kind of flipped for him last week. But it seemed like he had those wedges that he's so good at when he hits the fairway in those being able to temper a wedge from hit it exactly 80 or hit it 90 or hit it 100 or hit it 105. Like he seemed to have that range really dialed in, which is always when he plays his best.
Yeah, I completely agree. And I kind of love that we're getting him in a situation where, you know, it was his best iron week in two months. And that was like really what I was looking for. So I'm in on DJ. Is there anyone else in this range, Joe? I think there's like a very solid argument to be made that if there's any week that
I assume that you are pretty much like me, and I believe this to be the case from following you on Twitter and listening to your podcast, that you very rarely bet more than one guy under 20 to one, if any.
I think there's probably an argument to be made that if you're going to bet more than one guy under 25 to one, this is probably a good week for it based on what you outlined at the top with. There's just a lot of crossoffs. Is there anyone else you're going into here? Or we can even, we can even jump in to also like the Hovland fee. Now read the,
I guess, Hideki tier as well. Well, yeah, I'm really considering it this week. You're right that I don't usually dive with two guys below 20 to one, but I have Brooks. Um, and I'm really sort of still at this point on Monday night torn between whether I want to go Bryson, um, and just take both of the Titans who are going to square off or go Rory is the other one that is interesting me. I feel like he's being a little bit overlooked. Um,
A lot of the things that I am sort of honing in on this week, he does really well. So fourth in driving distance. When I sorted on sort of fantasy national strokes game, tee to green on long golf courses, 7,400 plus yards that typically play difficult scoring average.
number one in the field, number two in opportunities gained, which means he's giving himself 15 feet and in for birdie, the second most of anyone in the field. And I think that, you know, statistically, he just rates out really well, was so good at Wells Fargo. And we're just a month away from him being the betting favorite heading into a major championship. And
And now he's basically like sixth on your odds board. 30 days later, it just feels like those are the type of opportunities. And I did name some stats, but as a guy who generally looks at feel and things like this, like where's the dip, this guy was at the top of the odds board a month ago. Granted, it's going back to Keough Island, uh,
But he usually doesn't perform well in those type of events where we see all the hype around Rory. I feel like he's a little bit maybe slept on this week down there at 20-1. I feel like I'm going to get there with him. I'm leaning that way over Bryson, but I'm still very much have both of them in play.
I'm betting Rory. I'm with you. I bet him already at 20 to one. The only reason why I didn't feel super, super compelled to wax poetically about him off the top is because I've already talked so much about him. But I think you're right. And I think it's fun to do the narrative thing a little bit. We're a podcast. That's what that's for. And I think there are some benefactors. Again, this is all conjecture. But I do think...
that there are some benefactors to the Brooks and Bryson situation. And I do like how this is all setting up for Rory. Joe, when is the last time that Rory entered a major not being a top eight storyline, right? Like...
Like, is he a bigger storyline than Brooks this week? No. Is he a bigger storyline than Bryson this week? No. Is he a bigger storyline than Spieth this week? I don't think so. I don't think he's a big, I don't think he's a big. Ron.
Phil, Rom, coming off. Yeah, I don't think he's a bigger storyline than Xander. You might not even get Rory in a featured group at this rate. Because of all the Xander, Phil going for the Grand Slam, you're absolutely right. Even Reed is probably going to get more chatter coming off the debacle with the
rules at Torrey and winning earlier this year at Torrey. I think it just kind of sets up well for him. I think he goes into a lot of these majors, a lot of these British Opens and a lot of these Masters with a lot of pressure and being the guy and I kind
like that he's coming in just a little bit. I'm not going to do the thing where I say that he's coming in under the radar because then you get into this situation where it's like, you know who no one's talking about? Rory. You know who no one's talking about? Rory. And then he suddenly flips the script. I know people in me and yours like
corner of the internet who bet on golf and follow golf i know people like that are going to consider rory and bet on rory i'm just talking about the national media i think is sleeping on him a little bit i love it man you may have just put me that may just sold me off rory even more so i i think that that's where i'm going to land as well the 20 is a very attractive number
Absolutely. So unless there's anyone actually, you know what? I want to move on because there's some great guys that I want to have time to talk about. Quick Justin Thomas question for you. How many tweets did you see after Justin Thomas won the players that, you know, you never let Justin get to 20? Never let Justin get to 20. Hey, Justin was 20. It's an auto bet.
I'm seeing him at 25 and I feel like no one is interested. I'm so scared of it. I just told Chad right before this, like I am just going to like cover my eyes and plug my nose and just pray that he doesn't like ruin me this week. Cause I did this big take back at the Memorial. Cause I bet him at the Memorial. And I'm like, my whole thing was like nobody in the last five years is winning in
And that's what this is all about, right? Like your outrights, you can say this guy's top five and his scoring average is this and he's top tens at this percentage. But it's all about winning a ticket, right? When we're betting outrights. He wins more than anybody in the last five years. He's winning at a clip and I looked at it one in every eight tournaments that he's put a peg in the ground over the last five years, like 13% of the events that he's played.
nobody's really close to that. Like DJ is somewhat there, but yeah, seeing him at 25 to one is scary. And I'm worried that I, you know, I made this big spiel on him and then I'm not going to bet him this week. But my concerns are, um,
The accuracy off the tee seems to be having sort of wild misses. Like he's not just barely missing the fairway. Like when he miss hits someone it's driver in hand, like pointing way left or way right. And the other thing is obviously the putting, which I know that he can fix, but I think that,
there's a confidence factor there where I agree. You start to like try and make, try too hard. If that makes sense. And you're like overanalyzing stuff on the greens versus just feeling free. And like, let me go make this birdie putt. So I don't,
Those are the two reasons why I'm talking myself out of it, but I'm scared. No, you're absolutely right though. So Justin Thomas and Xander are my two favorite players. So I watch those guys and I track them whether I have money on them or not. And just going as a fan, I just don't want to touch those guys this week because A, I never get them right. And B, I don't need a bet on them to be super happy and psyched if they win. I love those guys. I've been playing golf since I was
nine years old and I've been trying to emulate Justin Thomas's swing every step of the way. Like I love the guy and I've been watching him closely, Joe, you're right. There's not, it's not,
it's not JT right now. It's not like he doesn't have that look that I'm so used to seeing from watching him in all those PGA tour live groups. I watch him almost every week and I watched him at colonial. I watched him at Memorial. It's just, it's not quite there yet. And if you're going to do the trends thing too, uh,
This is from Dave Tindall's great article, but eight of the last 10 winners have had a top 12 in one of their previous three starts.
JT has not done that. He's probably the biggest name not to have done that. There's some other good players who haven't, but JT is probably the biggest name to not be checking the recent form box. So I'm with you. Like I, I don't totally see it. I really hope he plays well because I love the guy and I can't wait to watch him, but you're right. It's just, it's so strange to me because it's like,
The number, you know, it's just a blind number play, but I think people aren't gravitating to him for a reason. Yeah. It's almost one of those where you have to ignore the number. And I would normally tell myself this to ignore the stats and just take the number. But I think betting two guys sub 20 to one is, is the reason that I'm going to justify not betting him this week. Makes sense. So,
Let's get into, let's open this up all the way. I already mentioned Finau and Matsuyama and Hovland. I'm going to throw Scheffler, Zalatoris, Paul Casey, Daniel Berger, Webb Simpson. All of those guys are at 50-1, Joe. And we'll even add Hatton at 55, Cameron Smith at 55, Louie at 55, and then we'll add
Justin Rose at 55, Matthew Fitzpatrick at 55, Shane Lowry at 55. And I guess we can stop there. In that middle tier, is there anyone you're going to? Yeah, I'm betting Pat Reed. He's a familiar face on my betting card. I was on him at the Farmers, I think at 33 to one when he won back in January. It's a good card.
It's the ability, sort of the unquantifiable through stats for him for me. I mentioned earlier that I was crossing a lot of guys off the list who don't rate highly in driving distance. He's the exception because of his ability to scramble, because of his ability out of the bunkers, because of his ability
great course history here because I trust in him to like make a 10 foot putt more than I think anybody on the PGA tour right now. And the harder it gets, he has the ability to sort of elevate his game. I had a huge, I think I was on him at like 80 to one at some point that I had a future on him last year at wing foot. And I believe he was leading after the second round. So he was right there. He's been there in us opens and,
in the past. He just played awesome. I thought at the Memorial, he just didn't make enough putts, but you know, you had those top three guys there, which it seemed like a three horse race, but he very under the radar played well at 30 to one or 28 to one or whatever you have it. I think that he's a guy that just outwins his betting number on a consistent basis. 35 to one is great.
Even 30 to one, I understand too. Listen, I understand the talk of Patrick Reed being disrespected in the odds boards. I completely agree with that. The only reason why I'm not going there this week, Joe, is because I'm locked into a guy at 18 and 20. So I'm kind of skipping this middle tier. And the next guy that I'm going with is Paul Casey at
50 and I bring him up because I read your Patreon earlier today. And I know that you are, I know that you are on him as well. You're going to have to let me know where you found that 66. I already walked in. I already walked in 50 and was like overjoyed with that.
Okay, so I'll tell you. I found it on Bovada, and I'm looking at it right now. It's still available. But look, Casey, I didn't think anybody else was going to be on him, so I'm happy to hear that you are as well. But the long iron play, he's fantastic at. 175 plus, 200 plus, he's great at. He still hits it very far for his age. I think that seeing...
You know, like, all right. So he top fives at the PGA. He top fives at the players. He's not playing the same schedule that I think he used to. He's sort of limited his events a little bit. And I think seeing like an old guy like Phil go out there and do it and all the glory that he got has to be sort of motivating for 43 year old Paul Casey, um,
And he has the ability to play well that we've seen before in California on the West Coast. So I think it's a good number. I feel like he's a little bit slept on. Like he's always a very positive,
popular pick in this range at the masters. Draft Kings. People will play him in draft Kings, but they're not going to say he can win. Right. They're not going to say he can win. And then, you know, it's kind of like one of those things where do I really believe in my heart that he's going to win the U S open? I don't know, but I feel like he's got the ability to, to give me a nice Sunday sweat, which is like a part of what we're looking for in this.
Joe, he is literally like an all-time Colin Morikawa drive that's going to be shown on the Golf Channel and talked about by Brando Chambly for the next 10 years and a decent putting week away from winning back-to-back PGA championships. Like, I'm just going to keep betting him at majors at over 50-1 if he continues to do this. Like, he's...
He is hitting the ball so well right now. He's great on POA, like second at Harding Park on the West Coast. I actually don't think Harding Park was POA, but Pebble Beach on POA, gained 3.9 strokes putting there. He has gained...
8.1 strokes on approach at the PGA. Like if you're, if you're just looking at the numbers from the PGA, it's like, how did Paul Casey not win this tournament and back to back years? Like he was so, so damn good in these majors. And I agree with you. Like, I think, um,
I think at 43, I'm not going to say that the clock is ticking because we just saw what with what Phil did, but I think he's playing some of the best golf of his career and he knows it's kind of time to take advantage of it. I would rather bet him at 50 to one this week than a lot of these younger guys that kind of terrify me. But I just think this is such a good spot for Paul Casey.
I totally agree. I'm with you there. I think that the approach numbers are fantastic. And you look at his last five events, like at the players 4.4 on approach at the Arnold Palmer invitation five on approach,
8.1 at the PGA, 5.3 at the Valspar. Like he's racking up approach numbers very well. Like you said, that is Colin Morikawa or Justin Thomas-esque. And I feel like just sort of the limited schedule and the fact that he's not finishing like second or a lot more people would sort of be on him. So maybe he is a little bit slept on this week. And I think that 50 plus makes a great bet.
Anyone else here? I think we can probably open it up to... I mean, we can talk about some of these guys. I'm not betting them, but, you know, like I...
I like Scheffler here a lot. I like Sal Torres here a lot. I just, you can't bet them all. I think Daniel Berger is like a great DraftKings play. Like, I don't think anyone's really going to play Daniel Berger. And he, I think he does make a lot of sense here. I'm a little out on web for some of the stuff that you just outlined. And I watched that tour junkies interview with his caddy. And it was a lot of like, tell me your guy can't compete here without telling me your guy can't compete here.
So I just, I don't, Hatton just finished second at the Palmetto. He finished a stroke back at the Palmetto and led the field in strokes game, ball striking and like finished second at the Palmetto losing like three strokes, putting all these guys, Joe, and we can extend now all the way up into the one hundreds. If you want to throw answer in there and Neiman in there and Fleetwood in there at 66 and Burns and Sungjay and, and Leishman and,
Adam Scott now at 80. Who else has your attention in this range? Are you kind of stopping there because you have those heavy bats at the top? Or are you kind of a little bit more interested in adding some guys in this 50 to 100 range? So what you said with with Scheffler and Zala Taurus were kind of spot on with the same way that I'm sort of like, I like them both. I'm
You can make a good case for either one of them, especially Scheffler here. Your bet U.S. number at 50, I think, is a very fair number. But at the same token, you can only bet so many guys. Right. I've kind of already sort of picked my two in that area. I may get there with Scheffler, but I don't know. For me, like in this in the 60 to sort of 100 range.
I have two guys that I bet, and I'll give you sort of a third that I'm interested in. So the two that I bet were Woodland, which is a future that I have from back in like January or December, but he's still out there at relatively high numbers. I think that
Look, great off the tee, great iron player, won the U.S. Open two years ago on the West Coast. I think that just those three things together should give him some confidence this week. He's trending in the right direction. The other one I like is Max Homa. Homa, I think, is at the point in his career where he's ready to make this leap into –
Not just winning the Wells Fargo and winning at the Riv, but competing at major championships, which we haven't really seen from him. Anytime you get him as a West Coast guy out on Poa grass in California, he's fantastic on the greens. Like he's basically a level par or sub field athlete.
average putter on the East Coast when you see Bent and Bermuda grass greens. On the West Coast, he's fantastic. So great finishes at Torrey in the past. Great at Pebble. Great at Riv, which has a lot of sort of close
classical golf course, West coast, similar, uh, comparable features. I think that Tori could have. Um, and I just like his sort of confidence in his demeanor. And I think he's in the midst of the best form run of his career. And the last guy that I'm interested in, and I haven't bet yet, but as it flirts toward triple digits and a hundred to one, I may find myself on Adam Scott.
So I'm there. It's unique in that. Like he's one of these guys that you just feel like can just show up and compete. And he has that ability. Great course history here. I think Bamford golf, I saw tweeted out like scoring average at Torrey Pines South recently, the best scoring average on Torrey Pines South. Um,
I think Reed is second. Adam Scott is first. Always plays here well. He told us, and you know, I talked earlier about guys that will sort of tell you the truth. He told us at the beginning of the year, there's really only like eight events that he cares about. I can tell you with 100% certainty, this is one of them. He's got circled on his list. So as he gets toward triple digits, like I'm going to be very tempted by him.
I'm there. I bet him at a hundred to one. He, you can find a hundreds out there. I'm seeing 80 on bet us. I think that's okay too. I'm with you, man. And maybe like the theme of my card in this range, the other guy that I have bet in this range is, is Fleetwood at 80. And that's probably a more difficult sell, but listen,
A lot of my card this week is like, doesn't it feel wrong that these guys have the amount of majors that they do? Like, I actually think that Dustin Johnson at 36 years old with two majors to his name is an absolute travesty. It is a travesty. Adam Scott in his 40s with one and Paul Casey at 43 with zero. I just... That is...
Listen, I spend a lot of time on these numbers. That is not the reason I landed on Adam Scott. I'm just, I think it's fun. I think it's fun to talk about because I just noticed a theme with all of my guys, but you're absolutely right. He's been unbelievable at Torrey every single time he plays it. His best finish of the year was at Torrey when he finished 10th. He's really good on these long, difficult, classical golf courses. Like the two courses that I kind of
found to be the best comps for Torrey, just in terms of similar leaderboards and stuff, were Muirfield Village and Bay Hill. Longer, classical, a little bit thicker rough, a little bit more difficult scoring average. A lot of the guys always pop up at the same courses. Adam Scott has been awesome at both. And he's sneaky long too. I'm dubious on driving distance in terms of like,
what, how much separation there really is. Like for example, Adam Scott's 11th in driving distance and Hideki Matsuyama is like 75th. I'm dubious to how much like of a difference there actually is, but Scott's long. Like he's, he's really long. And I think he is one of those guys that,
If you're going to take out a lot of the guys in terms of distance, I think you've got to even into his 40s. Scott's a bomber, man. And I really do think that he can compete here. I bet him at Memorial too, man. He was a little bit better. But I really think this is one that he's going to show up for. So I'm totally with you on Scott.
Yeah, I've sort of bet him a couple times as well. I think that I was on him at Torrey earlier this year where he played okay. He was like my big bet at the week Honda Classic field this year that I went to, and he played pretty well there, actually. I believe he topped 10. He did, yeah. It's like...
Yeah, the talent level for him and the upside is the type of guy that if you said Adam Scott won the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, like that's not going to floor you. These other guys at 100 to 1, like if I told you that Garrick Hago even coming off a victory or Charlie Hoffman or Jason Kokrak won the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, like you're going to be like, wow.
right? But Adam, like telling me Adam Scott, you're like, yeah, that sounds like that. That's something that's very feasible for the level of player that he is to accomplish. I completely agree, man. I think that, you know, this is a really interesting range. Like I'm looking here at a lot of these guys, like,
Charlie Hoffman and Garrick Higo now is 100-1. I think that Higo number is all over the place. I've seen like 125 still available, and I've seen like 50s. But I just trust Adam Scott a lot, and I have...
It's really tricky with these majors, man. And I'm interested to hear your take on this because I think Morikawa and Zalatoris have kind of broken the mold a little bit and kind of forced me to reconsider. But I tend to trust these veterans. Like I gave Rose a long, hard look too, but then I keep hearing all of these quotes. Like I'll never forget this quote that Kisner gave, uh,
I think it was a week or two ago where he was like, are you mentoring the younger guys? And he was like, mentoring the younger guys? Like, what are you talking about? Like, these younger guys are more ready to win than me. Like, they have no fear. They just go out and play. Like, they're ready to win now. So my only concern with like gravitating more so to the grizzly vets, we'll call them, is that I do think that some of the stigma of,
uh scotty scheffler or will zellatoris can't win their first pga tour start in a major i don't think they care at all like i don't think like all the crazy videos of the rough like all that stuff you're gonna hear a lot of the veterans probably talk about how hard this is like i don't even think they think that way and that's the only thing that scares me
Yeah, I would agree there. There's definitely a new breed in terms of confidence and the mental fortitude to be like, I'm ready to win right now. Sort of playing devil's advocate, like I think that some of these older guys, though, have been there, right? They've seen this road. They've seen U.S. Opens. They've seen them play level par. Like a lot of these events that Morikawa and Byrne
Burns and Neiman and Scheffler play on a week to week basis, they're birdie fast, right? You got to go out and you've got to shoot 65, three days in order to be in the top five of the leaderboard. It's not the way that this event plays. So it's unique sort of in that aspect where it's kind of a once a year type thing where it plays very different than they're used to. So
the ability to understand going into it, Hey, I'm going to make bogey. I'm probably going to make a double.
Like it's how I respond to that. And if I can get in with a 71 with not my best stuff today, I'm still right in the mix of it. Like if I come out tomorrow and shoot 68 and just birdie the three par fives and par out, like that's a great round. Like I'm right back in the thick of it. So it's just a different approach to it. Do I think that they can all understand that and get there? It depends on the player, but,
But I just, I like the fact that we know that some of these guys have been down this road many times before.
Any bombs, Joe, like in this 100 plus range? And even if you're not, even if we're not talking about betting outright, are there any guys above 100 to one that we haven't already touched on that you have some interest in, even if it's in like finishing position, top 20s, DFS, any guys like above 140?
that you're either betting outright or just have interest in in general? Yeah, not a whole lot for me in all honesty this week. I do have home at 110 to one. That's kind of the highest that I've gone on my betting card. In terms of like a top 20, I have some interest in,
And I may not do it, but some interest in Patrick Rogers, who has a good course history at Torrey Pines. I believe he's like 400 to one on some books. Won the U.S. Open qualifier down here in Palm Beach by like three strokes at the Bears Club. So played pretty well last week at Congaree as well. And has played well at Torrey previously. 19th, I have him rated here in the field in terms of distance.
So there are some positive things. Fifth in strokes game putting on POA. So there are a couple of things where if things go perfectly this week, I can see him finishing maybe like 14th or something like that. The other guy, and I have to pull up his odds that I'm just kind of interested. And you mentioned in watching is Cameron young. Interesting. I,
I would. Yeah. I kind of want to see him. My guy, I was on with Travis Fulton and he knows his dad really well. Who's a fellow swing coach. And Travis was like, this was before he had like back-to-back corn fairy tour wins. And he was like, this kid's unbelievable. Like you have to watch him play. You have to watch him off the tee. It's something special. And like, I think a lot of people gravitated last week to like,
or I don't know how to say his name, but just because he hit it so far. Is he playing this week? I don't know if he's in the field, but it will be kind of cool to see what he does and how he responds to the big leagues. Yeah, you know, I struggle with some of those guys, and it was...
Kind of how I missed on Higo too is if I don't have a ton of data on them, I tend to overlook them. And that is a mistake, clearly. So I need to do a deeper dive on Cameron Young because you are not the first person to have mentioned to me this week in terms of some of the guys that I talked betting with that just pay attention to Cameron Young. What are his outpours?
outright odds are you seeing? 400 to one or something like that? No, I believe he's beyond that. Let me just double check here. So I think it's a huge number. I see he's 6,800 to one. Okay. So it's just a massive number. You're not going to win, but like maybe a top 40 or just like a, to make the cut or something like that odds. Like, um, I'm just going to keep my eye on him because I'm excited to see him play.
The only other guys that I would mention that I have some interest in is I threw a very small sprinkle on Matt Wallace at 150 to one. Okay. I do think that...
I really like Wallace on classical golf courses. I'm looking at all of his best results. Sixth at Wells Fargo, fourth at the Memorial, sixth, 24th, 18th at Bay Hill. All those courses with a little longer, more difficult scoring conditions, firm, fast. Beth Page, too. He finished fourth. I kind of just think this is his zone. He was...
at the top of everyone's list at the PGA, I would argue this is a better course for him. Like, he's been... Poe is his best surface. He's been great on Poe, and, you know, he's, I'm looking, 12th in ball striking over 7,400 yards, like, good on approach, on difficult fairways to hit and thick rough. The irons kind of came back for him a little bit at Memorial, so...
I have, I've thrown a little sprinkle on Wallace, uh, one 50 and I'm going to play him in the finishing position market as well. The only other guys, Joe, that I'm considering for like top twenties, I think that Lanto could play really well here. I'm not going to do a whole Lanto thing now, but he's got really good Poe splits and just a lot of really good numbers on Lanto. He's, he's pretty long as well and has just done some really great stuff on the West coast. Um,
I gave Ortiz a hard look. I gave Frankie Molinari a hard look. We got both brothers in the field this week, so that should be exciting. Eduardo's playing way better, so maybe this is the motivation that Frankie needs. I gave Ram Palmer a hard look, but that's probably it for me, man. Yeah, I think so too. I see like Batia is 750 to one, which is a huge number, but yeah, I would be...
I like your take on Wallace. I was actually one of the people on him at the PGA. You're right. This probably is a better setup for him. He plays, he's not afraid, right? He's going to play aggressive. He's going to play his game. And I feel like that's a big thing in a U S open to go out there and sort of attempt at least to attack the golf course and not be shy away from the competition of these top players. I think that he's at a point in his career where he's ready to sort of make that leap.
On a scale of one to 10 rate, you're like shock level. If Matt Wallace wins this tournament. Oh, I would, if he actually wins, I would be at like a nine. I'd be shocked if he won. Yeah.
Not even the other guys, like even the guys that I bet like Homa or anyone like beyond 80 to one, if they win, I'm probably at like a nine or a 10 either, just because I'm so confident this week that it's going to come inside of 50. What were you at for Phil?
Oh God. I was with, I sweated that thing out with a buddy of mine who had him 250 to one on his couch. So it was an incredible sweat. Uh, I can't believe that he did it. Uh, but was exciting to watch nonetheless. Yeah. I think with Wallace, like, I think I'd be closer to like a five. I think if Matt Wallace, when I'd be like,
all right. Like he's a grinder. He almost won Beth page. He plays great. Like I would, I could see it. I think it's very, very unlikely, but I could, I think I could see it. Joe, man, that will, I think, is there anyone else you want to talk about before we do like a quick recap of our place? No, man, I appreciate you having me on. I was a ton of fun to kind of parse through the odds board. So I think we, we touched on a lot of players.
I think we did too. I, this was, this was great. I think we hit everyone that we wanted to. I didn't make my Fleetwood case, which I'm glad that I didn't because like that probably, you probably just would have thought I'm crazy after giving you that one. So I'm glad that I got to save my, my Fleetwood case for another day. But for me personally,
This is my card as of now, Joe. And it's, it's, I think it's pretty locked in. I'm feeling pretty strong about it, but it's DJ at 18 Rory at 20 Casey at 50 Fleetwood at 80 Scott at 100 Wallace, one 50.
Okay. Here's what I got. I got Brooks at 18. I've got Patrick Reed at 30. I've got Paul Casey at 66. I've got Max home at one 10. I've got Gary Woodland, which is an old future at one 25. And I'm probably, I think that you sold me enough on Rory McIlroy to get there at 20 to one. And I may add one more and sort of like the 40 range potential.
potentially because it's a major. Why not? Yeah, I'm probably going to act like I haven't figured out what I'm going to do top 40 wise and kind of finishing position wise. But I think I'll probably like I keep coming back to Justin Rose for some reason. So I think I may like play him top 20 and then I'll probably play like Ortiz and Molinari and Lanto probably top 40 and probably call it a day.
Sounds good, brother. Joe, Preferred Line Podcast. I know you do jock market stuff too. Why don't you just tell everyone where they can find you? Sure.
Sure. So at Tour Picks on Twitter is the handle. So I do a show on Mondays at 8.30 that we do live and we post to Apple, which is Preferred Lines with my buddy, Chad Eckert. On Wednesdays, I do a show for Jock Market, which is a really cool new app. It's kind of like stock market times fantasy golf. It's a ton of fun. Anyone who's
tried it, loves it so far. So that's fun. I do that with my bud Rick Gaiman over on his YouTube channel on Wednesdays. And, you know, I'm like you, man. I just try to like sort of dive into everybody's Twitter feeds and have a ton of fun with this sort of niche little golf thing.
betting, gambling community that we all have. So I appreciate everyone that's involved and it's a very fun, enjoyable hobby of time consuming hobby of mine. Joe, thank you so much again for joining me. You are welcome on this podcast anytime. I can't wait to listen to the replay of Preferred Lines and also to check you out on your Jock Market show with Rick. Have a great weekend, buddy. I'll talk to you soon. Thank you.
That's it for the show, guys. Remember on your way out to leave a five-star written review for your chance to get entered into the U.S. Open giveaway. I will be selecting that winner on Thursday. Basically, all you have to do, it takes two seconds, is leave a five-star written review on Apple Podcasts. I'm going to put every single person that does that into a randomizer. I'm going to pick the winner. I'm going to DM them or email them, and I'm going to ask them, hey, what do you want at Torrey Pines? A head cover?
a hat, a shirt, what do you want? I'll get it for you. I'll ship it for you. Free stuff, whatever you want. All you have to do is leave a five-star written review on Apple Podcasts to be entered into that giveaway. I will see you guys on Sunday for my first look of the Travelers Championship. I hope you guys have an incredible weekend and best of luck with your bets at the US Open. Enjoy.
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