Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Wanted to talk about BetUS. BetUS is an online legal sports book in all 50 states. I love their golf odds. They have a 33 to 1 on Victor Hovland for the US Open that I've just been eyeing. We've been giving each other looks. There's a little flirtation going on there. I don't want to make the first move.
But I'm worried if I wait too long, someone else is going to swoop her up. He's 22 to one on DraftKings for context. And BetUS will do that stuff all the time. You can kind of catch them sleeping. So I would encourage you to check out BetUS. That is BetUS.com. And make sure this is really the important part. Make sure to use promo code PickThePup for a 125% bonus on your first deposit. That's PickThePup.
no spaces for a 125% all sports bonus on your first deposit. Let's get to the show. Okay. I want to start here. First of all,
I just want to thank everyone that reached out either publicly on Twitter or in my DMs about the new Roto Baller job. That really means a lot to me. As some of you know, I quit my job to pursue a career in this full time about three months ago. So I'm all in. I'm betting on myself. And it means a lot that for a very tiny corner of the internet that likes this show and likes my content, for you guys to reach out and
Show your support and ask if I'm still going to continue with the pick the pup, which I absolutely am. But I have to say this show, this Sunday one might be in jeopardy.
Because one of the things that I'm doing for Roto Baller that I'm incredibly excited about is like a mega tournament preview every Monday morning where I lay out all the stats. I break down the course, basically everything I do in this podcast, but in written form for Roto Baller. I don't know if I'm going to be able to do both going forward. I really like to put my all into absolutely everything I do, and I don't want to
do too much and have some of my content kind of get sacrificed because I just have too much on my plate. I'm going to try really, really hard, but it may just be too difficult. I will still, of course, keep doing my Tuesday Picks podcast with a guest. But with that being said, if you really do like this Sunday preview, here's how you could help me out. And even if you don't like this preview, you could still...
Help me out and get some free stuff if you're, for some reason, listening right now. I am going to the US Open this weekend at Torrey Pines. And I haven't really leaned into the whole marketing thing too much yet because I feel like it can kind of come off as tacky. And it's just kind of unnatural for me to do. But I have been advised...
that I should be more because I've got some momentum and I really want to be able to keep this podcast going because I know that there are people that care about it and I love doing it and I care about it too. So basically,
If you leave a five-star rating and written review on Apple Podcasts, you have to do both by Thursday. Make sure to leave your Twitter handle or your email in the rating or screenshot it to me and let me know you did it. Just any proof that you have left the written review and the rating. All the people that do that, I'm going to put them all in a randomizer. I'm going to pick a winner and
And I'm going to buy them at the U.S. Open like an official U.S. Open, whatever they want, as long as it's reasonable. So say like under $100, but a polo, a mug, a head cover, a hat.
a flag. I don't know. You tell me I'm letting you pick. A lot of these giveaways are like, I'm going to give you this. And how are you supposed to know if people actually want that stuff? So I just rather let you pick what you want.
you tell me, I'm going to Torrey Friday and Saturday. I'll pick the winner on Thursday. I'll let you know. We'll DM about it. I'll send you pictures from the shop. But you tell me, as long as it's under like $100, I'll get you whatever you want at Torrey. Official US Open swag. So all you have to do
to be eligible is you have to subscribe, you have to leave a five-star rating, and a written review. That's it. It takes like two seconds, two seconds. Even if the review is like, "Hey, I like this guy. He gives good information," whatever. But it has to be a written review and a five-star rating, and I will announce the winner on Thursday. So make sure you do it now, like right this second. It takes two seconds.
Like I said, I took a bit of a risk doing this. I'm betting on myself. Starting to get a little momentum here, but it's a grind.
just like anything else in life. So it would really mean a lot to me. And once again, I can't thank everyone enough who reached out in the DMs and have just been reaching out in general to ask questions. I always answer. I'm always down to talk golf with anyone. I love this stuff so much. So thanks again for the support, guys. It really means a lot. Okay. U.S. Open. I want to start here. I love the U.S. Open.
I absolutely love the US Open. It is my favorite golf tournament in the world. Yes, I do like it more than the Masters. I don't know if that's a hot take or whatever, but it's just how I feel. I try and go every year. I've had some incredible memories at this golf tournament, a lot of them with my friends, a lot of them with my dad. It always falls on Father's Day. I love these golf courses.
I always do well at the US Open because I just feel like I have a really good familiarity with these golf courses. I feel like I have a really good sense of Shinnecock, really good sense of winged foot. I know Pinehurst pretty well from playing it in college. Pebble Beach, I'm pretty familiar with. I've played those courses and been to all those Opens, and I'm going again this year.
I'm going again this year. I will be at Torrey on Friday and Saturday, coming back Saturday night to do this podcast and work, of course. And I love Torrey Pines. I've never played the golf course.
but I've been to the Farmers Insurance Open there before. In fact, quick aside, I went to the Farmers at Torrey in 2020. One of the weirdest experiences of my entire life. I was following Tiger Woods on Sunday and he wasn't really in contention. I think he ended up finishing ninth. That was the year Mark Leishman actually won. But that afternoon, Kobe died. And so I was in this giant crowd
following Tiger right as the Kobe news broke. And everyone was like absolutely losing their minds. And then some idiots started yelling at Tiger, Tiger, do it for Kobe, do it for Kobe for like his entire back nine. And you could just see on his face, he was like, what the fuck are these guys talking about? It was such a weird day. It was really, really strange. I don't think I'll ever forget it.
So hopefully my experience at Torrey this year doesn't come with such a dark cloud. I don't think I will ever forget that day for the rest of my life. Just watching masses of people find out that news at the same time. But anyway, shout out to Kobe Bryant. Truly one of the greatest to ever do it. Hopefully, you know, this year is a little bit brighter. Let's get into the course.
I'm going to keep this relatively brief because I'm doing a far more in-depth breakdown, not only in my Roto Baller article on Monday, but also in my podcast tomorrow with PGA Splits. That's right. The collaboration that absolutely no one asked for. Me and PGA Splits nerding out.
So I'm going to give a little stuff on the course today, pretty much just my general thoughts and the key stats that I think are going to be important. And then I want to spend some time talking about the top of the board and more so use this episode to talk about the players that I already have targeted.
Okay, Torrey Pines South Course. It's a par 71, 7,643 yards, designed originally by William F. Bell in 1957 and redesigned by Reese Jones in 2001-2002.
I think he fiddled with it again in 2019. The fairways are Bermuda grass overseeded with rye grass, Kikuyu grass rough, three inches, at least, 5,000 square foot greens, Poa Anna, Poa Annua, Anna. I think the U is silent. So the only other times that we see Kikuyu grass is at Riviera and Chipultepec.
Poe greens, Poe greens. You're going to hear a lot about Poe greens. They are notoriously difficult to putt on.
Some pros aren't a huge fan of them. They can get a little bumpy. So, you know, you're obviously going to want to look at guys that have done well on POA in the past. Pebble Beach, Riviera, a lot of the East Coast kind of major courses have also featured POA. It's a little bit different than West Coast POA. But, you know, you know, Beth Page is...
when they had the PGA Championship there. Oakmont, Shinnecock Hills, Winged Foot, all East Coast POA. I'm not really going to get too much into the East Coast versus West Coast POA thing, but those are kind of some of the courses that have had POA. So you may want to check out some guys that have putted well at those places in the past. So here's what I want to talk about with
the US Open and Torrey Pines. So this is the first thing that really jumped out to me. Let me give you the last couple winners working in reverse order. So 2012, Webb Simpson, 2013, Justin Rose, 2014, Martin Keimer, 2015, Jordan Spieth.
Not incredibly similar players, but they are all shorter, not considered bombers. Keimer was pretty long in his day. He's not like a bomber. I went to that US Open at Pinehurst. That just that wasn't how he won. He's a really good iron player like Webb, like Rose and like Spieth. And then something happens in 2016.
And we get this run where we go Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka twice, Gary Woodland, and Bryson DeChambeau. All bombers. So what happened in 2016? I think something might have switched just a little bit.
with the U.S. Open in recent years. And I heard Kyle Porter talk about this a little bit too, where he begged the question, has the U.S. Open just turned into who can hit it the farthest and who is the guy that is strong enough to muscle it out of the rough? Let me tell you something. What Bryson did at Winged Foot last year, that was not part of the plan. That was not the formula they were expecting at Winged Foot.
But they make the rough so thick now, and it's going to be the same way this year, if not thicker. And you think on first glance that favors the accurate guys. You know, people weren't talking about that at winged foot. Bryson wasn't the steam guy. People picked him, but he wasn't like the dude. People weren't expecting him to do that.
Now, the reason that Bryson won and the reason that he always wins at courses like Winged Foot and Bay Hill is when we have thick rough and the fairways are narrow, that is actually perfect for bombers because if everyone is missing the fairway, then the guys that have wedges out of the rough instead of five irons, that's a huge advantage.
That's a huge advantage. And Wingfoot had really, really narrow fairways. So if the rough is thick at Torrey Pines, but the fairways are wide, then accuracy starts mattering again. Because if some of the guys are hitting fairways, but not all, that's a big advantage for the guys that are hitting fairways. But if no one is hitting the fairways, that's a big advantage to the Bombers. Now,
Where does Torrey come into play here? So the fairways at Torrey are wider than the fairways at Winged Foot, but not by much. Winged Foot is around 25 yards on average. Torrey is a little closer to 30. Not a huge difference. Now, it's different rough at Torrey than it was at Winged Foot. Winged Foot was Kentucky Bluegrass. Torrey is Kikuyu. The ball can kind of sit up more in Kikuyu, but it can also sit down.
basically in a vacuum, I do think that Bryson's formula could work here too. So does distance matter? Yeah, it does. I think you'd be silly to think it doesn't. And there's nothing the USGA can really do about it. Now, I have heard whispers that maybe they could try
and combat this by making the rough thicker the closer you are to the hole. I heard Paul Tesori say that on Tour Junkies, who's Webb Simpson's caddy. That would definitely help a guy like Webb Simpson more. I don't want to say that's wishful thinking. And he admitted to. He was like, I know I work for one of the shorter players on Tour, so that is what we are hoping for.
It's interesting to me, but I don't know if it necessarily solves the problem based on the loft of the club and how much power some of these guys are able to generate. I don't know how much they would actually be able to do that in practice because, you know, for example, like this is a huge exaggeration, but I'm just going to use it to make a point. You just can't hit a five iron out of four inch rough. You just can't.
But you can hit a wedge out of six inch rough. It's not fun, but you can do it. By the way, the difference would never be that pronounced. It would be very minimal. They'd never be able to get away with that pronounced as of a difference. You'd be able to see it on TV. The course would look weird. It would lose the integrity of the course in general if they tried to make the difference that pronounced. I think if they tried to do it,
And I'm not even sure if they are even going to be able to pull it off. I do think they could curb it a little bit. You know, you'll see who I'm talking about playing. I'm not just all playing bombers, of course. But I still don't really think it totally solves the problem. And that's even if they can pull that off too. Like,
Talking with Rick Gaiman on Twitter this morning, and he pointed out that sounds easy to do in theory, but the logistics of actually pulling something like that off, I don't know if I would just jump ship to say that the Bombers are now at a disadvantage or the playing field is completely leveled because of that possibility. I still think in general, the USGA is in a pretty tough position here.
Because if they cut the rough down too low or they try and widen the fairways, they aren't going to get those high scores that they want. And they take pride in that. They take a lot of pride in that, especially with how much everyone was glowing about the ocean course. Trust me, the USGA's worst nightmare is a winning score of 15 under and people saying, wait,
What's the difference between this and the Farmers Insurance Open? So for this course to pop, for it to have a nice narrative, they have to make it hard. They have to make it hard because Torrey, it's not like that awesome of a golf course. Like just looking at the Golf Digest rankings, I promise I'll keep the architecture stuff brief, but Torrey's no Shinnecock. It's no winged foot.
It's no Pebble. It's no Oakmont. It's no Pinehurst. I don't even think it's in the top 100. In architecture circles, Reese Jones, he doesn't really get the respect of a Donald Ross or a CB McDonald. The architecture bros, they're a little bit out on Reese. They're a little bit out on Reese. So I know it's on the coast. San Diego is great. But
It's not that special of a course. It's just not. But this still becomes an awesome US Open if people start talking about how hard it is, which is already happening. If they're able to make the course pop with the videos of the rough and the length, they have to do that. They have to do that or they lose what they care about most is
you know, the US Open maintaining being synonymous with the hardest test in golf. So distance matters. It does. I think you'd be silly to not think it doesn't. Let's talk about the key stats. So driving distance. I just went through that. Bryson at winged foot, 140th in driving distance. Sorry, excuse me. 140th in driving accuracy, first in driving distance.
Gary Woodland at Pebble, 79th in driving accuracy, 13th in driving distance. Brooks in 2018, 155th in driving accuracy, 8th in driving distance. Brooks in 2017, 154th in driving accuracy, 7th in driving distance. DJ, 2016, 138th in driving accuracy, 2nd in driving distance. It's a thing.
It is a real thing and it is going to continue. So driving distance. The only reason why I'm not going to put like a 20% weight on it is I just don't necessarily think that driving distance is super indicative of the longest players on tour because of how much these guys experiment on the course with different styles of driving. Like I see Hideki.
as 70th in driving distance and Spieth as 42nd. Is Sedecky really that much shorter than Spieth?
So I think that the only reason you have to be careful with driving distance and not go too crazy on it is I don't necessarily think that it's indicative of who are the longest players, but I still think it's helpful of kind of like separating out tiers. Like Bryson should be number one in driving distance. Cameron Champ should be number two. Kevin Kisner should be 150th.
But sometimes like if a guy is 40th, you know, a guy who's 70th could be longer than him. Right. So just just look at it kind of for tears. I am still absolutely looking at strokes gain off the tee. I think it's huge this week. You know, per Steve Bamford, the great Steve Bamford, one of my idols.
Bryson, Brooks, DJ Spieth, and Justin Rose. They all came in awesome in strokes gain off the tee because of the setup. Like I've talked about the way that the USGA is doing it now. I do think strokes gain off the tee. I'm never going to say that it's more important than approach, but I think it's closer this week than normal.
and maybe even just really shrink the sample size too to see who is driving the ball really well right now. Like I said, in 2016, when I think the USGA really started making their setups favor more bombers, DJ, the week before he won at Oakmont, first in total driving, fourth in strokes getting off the tee, Brooks,
first in total driving second in strokes gain off the tee brooks in 2018 25th in total driving fifth in strokes gain off the tee woodland was kind of the anomaly finishing 39th in total driving and 66th in strokes gain off the tee but pebble was such a short course too and then bryson 25th in trouble total driving 16th strokes gain off the tee i think it really really matters
I know that driving accuracy is like 52% at Torrey compared to 62% on tour average. So that would make you think maybe good drives gained or fairways gained. That's just not how I'm handicapping it this week. There's no correlation between fairways gained and guys who have won here. In fact, just guys who have made the cut.
have gained more fairways than guys who have won. So I'm not really looking at accuracy this week. I guess I am because strokes gain off the tee also factors in accuracy. And I am looking big time at strokes gain off the tee, but I'm not adding any accuracy stats on top of that. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but that's what I'm doing.
Strokes gained approach and greens and regulation gain. I shouldn't have to explain these one. Obviously, there's a huge correlation between greens and regulation gained and strokes gain approach and those who have finished highly at Torrey. I know Patrick Reed won here missing greens.
It's possible. It's not easy though. Last 15 years, no U.S. Open winner was outside the top 20 in greens and regulation. Greens and regulation percentage is 62% here compared to tour average of 65. Never going to underestimate approach. Always, always, always going to be important. Shows getting around the green, always at a U.S. Open. It's definitely important.
I'm not convinced Torrey is like brutal around the greens. I think guys are going to be missing greens. So you got to look at strokes gain around the green, but looking at what players have done short game wise, again, Patrick Reed was really the anomaly top 10 finishers and winners.
Not anything special around the green wise. In fact, over the last five years, the average short game around the green ranking of winners at Torrey has been 38th compared to 20th in strokes gain off the tee and strokes gain approach. So, you know, Torrey isn't necessarily known as like absolutely the most difficult place to get up and down at, but you're still going to have to get up and down a lot.
Uh, because a lot of people are going to be missing these screens. You know, I will say there's a fair amount of bunkers. I did see a positive correlation between guys who have done well in sand saves and finished highly. So I'm looking at strokes gain around the green. I'm looking at sand saves, but a little bit less than strokes gain off the tee and a little bit less than strokes gain approach.
Par four scoring 450 to 500 yards. Torrey Pines has nine par fours over 440 yards, and three of those are over 500 yards. So yeah, long par fours. Want to take a peek at it?
strokes gained par fives. I know that there are only three par fives on the course and two of them might not be reachable. I'm still looking at it. I think you got to take advantage of those holes. I guarantee you those two 600 plus par fives. First of all, they're going to move the tee boxes up once or twice. Second of all, even if they aren't reachable in two, they will still play as three of the easiest holes. I guarantee it. You got to score on those. I'm
I thought about par three scoring 200 to 225 yards because three of the par threes are between 195 and 223 yards. But I'm just, I'm going with proximity 200 yards plus old, reliable, heavy weight on that. And all, all those long par fours, three long par threes, three par fives where, you know, if you hit a really good drive, you might be able to get there and have under two 50. And I'm really,
I'm really looking at that proximity. 175 to 200 yards. I'm going to look at that too. Just a little bit less so, but that's probably going to come more so into play on those medium length par fours. Last thing I'm kind of taking a peek at is three putt avoidance. I know these greens aren't huge, but there have been 0.73 average three putts per round at Torrey compared to the tour average of 0.55. You just, that's a huge discrepancy.
And you always got to be a little careful on POA. POA is hard to putt on. So I'm looking at three putt avoidance. I think it's going to matter this week. I want good putters. I want good POA putters because it's a tricky surface. All right. I did a little mixed condition model too. And the things that I weighed in my mixed condition model, you know, I looked at how guys have done it, Torrey. Now,
I know I am the number one banger of the drum that a USGA setup is a lot different than a PGA Tour setup.
And, you know, I found this quote from Tiger from the 2008 U.S. Open. It's totally different than what we play here in January. The greens are rolling. You're finding the slopes are pretty significant out here, and we're not used to seeing the ball roll this much. It's a little quicker. We're playing different distances in the tee boxes than we normally do. I still think it matters. I do. Like, yes, there are going to be changes, but...
I still think there's something to be said for whether or not this course fits a player's eye. Again, it's not something to live or die by. I think it'd be a mistake not to look at it, though. Right. Like, I don't think you lose anything by looking at it. I don't think it's necessarily should be a tiebreaker on any guys, but I'm looking at it.
Strokes game, putting POA. Of course, this does matter. When Graham McDowell won at Pebble in 2011, he
had some really solid POA experience. When Woodland won in 2019, he had some really nice POA experience. Morikawa too, when he got his major at Harding Park, he had some great POA experience. Obviously, he went to Cal, so he was really comfortable on the West Coast. But Muirfield had a bet in POA mix before the renovation, and Morikawa won there, and then he won on POA at Harding Park. So
Woodland played really well at Mirafield Village on POA and then won again at Pebble. So it's important. It's a hard surface to putt on. I played Pebble in November. I'm used to bent grass. I putted terribly. It is different. It is different. It matters. I really think it does. Okay. Comp courses.
I don't think Bay Hill is terrible. You know, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Mark Leishman, Tiger, obviously have all won at both. It's pretty long, decently thick, rough, you know, classical golf course.
I don't think Mirafield Village is bad either. Mirafield had a bent in Poem X for a while there. And again, Rom, Day, Rose, you know, all these guys that play well at both Firestone too. If you want to get a little frisky, there's kind of a strong correlation I noticed at Firestone.
They've all kind of played well at Augusta, I guess. And Pebble, obviously, because of the POA, isn't bad. Maybe Harding Park, too, because of the POA and it had that pretty thick rough. It was a lot shorter, though, Harding Park was. I think Bay Hill and Muirfield are really the best. That's all I'm really going to take a serious look at.
Strokes gain ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. I always look at this. And then this one's a little more obscure, but I'm also looking at strokes gain approach on courses with difficult fairways to hit and thick rough. I want guys that are good out of the rough. And I found that this was an easy filter to kind of help me with that. So top 10 in my model over the last 36 rounds.
Number one is Jason Kokrak. Number one is Jason Kokrak. Number two is Xander. Number three is Bryson. Number four is Jon Rahm. Number five is Brooks. Number six is Patrick Cantlay. Number seven is Victor Hovland. Number eight is Daniel Berger. Number nine is Jordan Spieth. And number 10 is Paul Casey. Not a ton of surprises there, honestly. Even Kokrak at one. I mean, that was a surprise, but...
I knew Kokrak was going to rate out really highly for me. And then in the mixed condition model, where I'm basically just looking at course history at Bay Hill and Mirafield Village, course history at Torrey, putting on Poa, ball striking on long courses, and approach play on courses with difficult fairways to hit and thick rough. These are just kind of the guys that I think really fit the mold of this type of course.
Number one, John Rahm. Number two, Zander. Number three, Tony Finau. Number four, Adam Scott. Five, Rory McIlroy. Six, Henrik Stenson. Seven, Patrick Reed. Eight, Matt Wallace. Nine, Justin Rose. Ten, Mark Leishman. So, you know, like that's some of the stuff I'm looking at.
But like, listen, at the end of the day, there are a lot of ways to win on this golf course. There are a lot of ways to win a U S open at the farmers. For example, at Torrey, you know, Rom, Rose and day, they all hit the ball a really long way and hit a lot of greens and regulation, you know, leash men. He was a little wild off the tee, but long and good on approach. And he made a ton of putts read, uh,
He hit a ton of fairways, missed a lot of greens, but got up and down from everywhere and made his putts every single time he did hit a green. I think there are a lot of ways to win. I think that what we saw at Winged Foot with Bryson, I personally think that's the easiest path. Doesn't necessarily mean I'm playing all bombers. I'm not playing Bryson. But you know, you just, you got to do the research and take a stand. Like, I personally think
in my opinion, that the USGA is in a bit of a rock and a hard place and really struggling with how to set up these courses that don't inherently favor bombers. And I have no reason to believe that a lot of what we saw at Winged Foot is possible again. Now that still has to be executed, right?
But like Bryson, you know, I think like I think you could have success doing that. You know, it doesn't mean it's going to happen. Doesn't mean Webb Simpson or Patrick Reed can't win this tournament. I just I'm only making the point that I think based on the way that the USGA is currently setting up these courses, like
I do think that if you are longer, you have an easier path. That is all I'm saying. That is all I'm saying. So here we go. Early leads. Let's talk about the top of the board. I've got a lot of takes. I'm going to save Brooks and Bryson for the end. Well, actually, you know, let me start here. You're going to hear a lot. You know, every single one of these last 10 winners at the U S open have ranked inside the top 30 in the official world golf ranking. Uh,
You're going to hear a lot of, there's only 10 to 15 realistic guys that can really win this. I don't know. I think this major is wide open. I think there are a lot of guys that can win this tournament. There are a lot of guys in this field that hit the ball a long way and have the ball striking chops to win this tournament that aren't 20 to one or under.
Maybe I have like Phil Mickelson and Jess and Hadley goggles on, but I really don't think that this is necessarily going to be a tournament that is just dominated by the top guys. I went through everyone this weekend, pretty much all the way up to guys that were over 200 to one. I gave them at least a look, you know, every single one of the guys from John Rom to, I don't know,
Ryan Palmer. And I looked at everyone and like every single guy, I was like, yeah, but maybe not. I actually have concerns with a lot of the top guys. I think you could make a compelling case for all of the top guys. And I could also make a decent argument against them too. I had a really difficult time finding players that I like.
which isn't often the case. It's usually it's the opposite. Usually there are so many guys that I like and I really have to narrow it down this week. It's like, I'm not sure if I'm seeing what everyone else is seeing with that. And what that kind of tells me is, you know, like people think, Oh, us open big boy tournament cross off 80% of the field. I don't know if I agree with that. I think one of the 10 best players in the world is most likely to win. Of course, but,
But they're most likely to win every tournament. That's why they are the best players in the world. I just think we could get some party crashers in the mix this week. I really think so. I think there's a lot of uncertainty with some of these guys. So let's talk about the top of the board. Let's start with Ron.
I really like Rahm here. I've been saving him in one and done for this week, and I'm still going to use him in one and done, but he's not someone I'm considering betting on. A, because of the number, and B, those three rounds at Mirafield were so good. They were so good. From a strokes gain perspective, that was actually one of the best performances of the last decade.
And the idea that he is just going to pick up exactly where he left off, like he's not, Rahm's not Tiger Woods. Like that performance at Mirafield, that's not going to be a weekly thing. He's going to play that well, maybe one to two times a year. Hell who knows, maybe one to two times in a career. Like it was that good. He was that good at Memorial.
Did he use up his performance where he just absolutely goes off? I don't know. But the idea that he's just going to be able to pick back up and go into that zone, I don't think so. You dig into some of the strokes gained numbers, and unless you're like Tiger, you know, Ron...
I'm not saying he's capable of playing that well again. Of course he's capable of playing that well again. I just think it's more likely that there's more of a regression with Rom than there is for him to pick back up where he left off at Memorial. That's my only case. I think he's dangerous, but I'm not going to bet him. I think Spieth is dangerous. I've been hearing some early Spieth hate stories
I think people are going to count him out because he's not as long. I think that would be a mistake. If there's any player that I think can break the mold of what I'm talking about, I think it's Spieth. I think he's going to win the British Open. I think a lot of people are going to pick him at the British Open. So I could really see him crashing the party early and winning the tournament that people aren't on him for. That would really be on brand. I could really see it. I think Spieth is dangerous. I really do.
DJ, I'm recording this early on a Sunday morning. He hasn't teed off yet during the final round. I think obviously what happens in this final round will really drive the narrative, especially if Hadley pulls it off. That's obviously not going to be a good look for DJ.
I don't know. I mean, I think he still proved a fair amount. Like this was one of his best ball striking weeks in a while. He gained in all four categories for three rounds. I, I think DJ is going to play well. I actually think I prefer him to Brooks and Bryson. And he's kind of right there with speed with me where I think he maybe, maybe like a slight tier below Rom, but,
But like, I think, I think Spieth, DJ and Rom are dangerous, but I don't, I don't really feel compelled to bet any of them. I think he could win. I don't think DJ is like a bad pick if people don't pick DJ because Chesson Hadley beaten him. I think that's stupid. So it's not, I'm not going to be able to get there, but I don't think DJ is a bad pick this week. Now Xander and JT.
Now, you've noticed I haven't really said anything about these guys. Normally, I would lead with these guys. And the reason for that is I have no opinion on them. None. No opinion whatsoever. I think I'm doing seven podcasts this week, and I only plan on talking about Xander and JT if directly asked. And the reason for that is I'm going to the US Open. These are my two favorite players.
I root for them whether I have money on them or not. I don't need a bet on them to be overjoyed if they win. I don't want my bad juju on them. I'm pretending they don't exist this week. If you want my take on their chances, of course they can fucking win. Xander's the most complete player in the world, in my opinion. He's played in four US Opens and he hasn't finished worse than six. And JT, like,
Now, I don't have a take on either of them. I don't even want to get into it because I'm not considering them. I never get Xander right, and I really, really want him to win this week. Probably even more than JT, even though I like JT better because I know how much this means to Xander, and JT is going to be fine. He's got a lot of majors in his future.
I'm going to watch him win the 2023 US Open at LA Country Club. It's a perfect course for him. I can see it now already. It's already planned out. So JT is going to be fine. And I hope Xander can win this week. But I'm leaving them alone. Let's leave those guys alone. If you want to say they suck, that's fine. I'm used to it. You can tell me they suck.
I'm leaving them alone. And then finally, Brooks and Bryson. And this is probably my most steamy take of the week. I don't see it with either of them. I think it's far more likely that both of them underwhelm. And when I say underwhelm, I don't think either are going to bomb and miss the cut, although I wouldn't be shocked. But the idea that it's going to be Brooks and Bryson kind of dueling it out down the stretch, I don't see it.
I could be wrong, but I just think the most likely outcome is that neither really are in the mix come Sunday. And the reason that I say that has nothing to do with my opinion on them as golfers. I just don't like the situation. And I'm not even just like talking about the media bullshit and the zoo that it's going to be, especially if they're in the same group. There's just a lot of gunk going
going on right now with them. And whenever there's a lot of gunk, those guys usually don't win. Unless we're talking about Tiger, it's not the guy that's drawing the biggest crowds in his interviews or is like the headline of every Golf Digest story. He's getting picked on ESPN. I know that people are going to say Brooks is...
a steel fortress. He blocks it out. He doesn't care. And the same thing with Bryson. I think Bryson probably has a lot of metal fortitude and has the ability to block out a lot of the noise and people chanting Bruxy and all the questions he's going to get asked. I'm not disputing that. I think both of those guys are really good. They're professionals. I think both of them are really good at blocking that kind of stuff out. That's not even the point I'm trying to make.
I just think with Brooks, I think he's a little high on his own supply right now. And I like Brooks, but it's a lot of canoodling with Barstool. It's a lot of taking pictures in super tight white pants at fake boxing matches. It's a lot of talking with agents. It's a lot of brand awareness stuff. It's a lot of PIP stuff.
It's a lot of social media love. I mean, what, 80% of the public, maybe more, is on Team Brooks, right? I mean, no one, you know, without actually winning the PGA, did anyone kind of raise their public perception more than Brooks, even though he kind of didn't play well at all down the stretch, right? Like, people love Brooks right now.
And that's not the Brooks that I love. I don't love that Brooks. I'm not saying he's not motivated because I know that he is. But, you know, let's look at what Brooks has done his best work this year. 55 to one at Phoenix. Missed four cuts in a row. Wasn't the storyline at all. People said he sucked. Wins that tournament. 50 to one at the PGA. People were making fun of his walk. He can't bend down. Like, that's the Brooks thing.
That I think is more dangerous. Now he's everyone's darling. You know, who cares if he missed the cut? He'd even want to make the cut. His form doesn't matter. He can contend on one leg. He's 12 to one. He should be an auto bad at every major because it's, he's a major. Like, are we sure? Like, are we sure that he's playing that well right now? Like, I know he had a run at Kiowa and he still kind of choked it at the end, but
But like, are we sure he's just like locked in to content with all this stuff now? I'm just a widow skeptical. And Bryson too. I think he checks all of the boxes this week.
From a statistical standpoint, you know, if I was picking one golfer just based on how I think the course is going to play, Bryson or Rahm probably make the most sense. You know, Bryson is number one in driving distance and number one in proximity from 200 yards plus. That's like two of the biggest things that I'm looking at. But,
Like, are we sure that these guys are like impenetrable fortresses of mental acuity and they're just going to ignore all of this gunk and win? I watched him pretty closely at Memorial because I bet him in a head-to-head with Spieth, which ended up pushing on like the 18th holes. Crazy sweat. But I was watching him closely at Mirafield and he looked fine.
but he didn't look like I'm using a lot of hand motions right now. And I know this is audio, but he didn't look like locked in, in the sense that, and kind of same with Brooks, by the way, at Congaree. I'm not, I'm not saying distracted and Brooks at Congaree, by the way, is a different story. I'm not using that as a comparison. We know he, God knows why he played that tournament. I, did he want to miss the cut? Like I have no idea, but yeah,
I'm talking about Bryson for now. Distracted is not the right word. It's more like you can kind of just tell that he's never been in a position like this before. I think he's kind of awkward and uncomfortable with the fame as it is. But now you add this into the mix.
All this stuff into the mix. You know, he was 35 to one at winged foot. He was not the guy. He was not the guy. I know people were still picking him, but he wasn't the guy. He wasn't a top five or a top 10 storyline this week. He wasn't even playing well coming in. All Bryson had to do was go out and play. And now he's going to be judged on every interview, how he answers every question, every tweet.
If the media is smart, they're going to grind these guys. If fans are fans, they're going to needle these guys. In fact, if the NBA has taught us anything, it's that coming out of the pandemic, fans are worse. They're more disrespectful. And that's not even my point. I think it's more about everything else going on than just that. But I think it's more likely that both of these guys are
finish like T19. I don't think they're going to bomb. They both set up way too well statistically for this course. And of course, either of them can win. Of course, I could be wrong. But listen, you got to take a stand. I'm not one of those guys that goes on seven different podcasts and picks a different guy on every single one. That way on Sunday, you never lose.
No, you got to take a stand on some of these guys. You know, I'm not one of those guys that that's one of, you know, half the favorites and calls it a day. That's putting in three or four guys under 25 to one. You know, that's just not me. So you got to pick and you got to take a stand. And I thought a lot about this. I thought a lot about this. And I think there are a couple benefactors here.
of the Brooks and Bryson stuff that's going on right now. And I really think that this all kind of plays right into Rory's hands. I really do. I'm not saying that he's coming in under the radar. In fact, a lot of the people that I talk golf betting with, they're kind of into it too. And some of those guys have a way bigger platform than I do.
So it would not shock me if Rory picked up some steam this week. I know people in my community are not overlooking Rory. The point I'm making is like the bigger media. I don't think that Rory is like a top 10 storyline this week. Maybe, but is he a bigger storyline than Brooks? No. Is he a bigger storyline than Bryson? No. I think Spieth is a bigger storyline.
I think DJ is a bigger storyline. I think Rom coming off the COVID debacle is a bigger storyline. I think Phil going for the grand slam after just winning the PGA, that's a bigger storyline. I actually think from what I've been seeing with all these articles about the practice games with Phil and all this hometown stuff that I wish people would just chill out on, I think Xander's going to get more media attention this week.
I really do because of the San Diego thing. That's like seven guys that are going to be way more buzzy in terms of all the media frenzy stuff. And I'm not talking about DFS or how many people on Twitter are picking Rory. I'm just saying I like the fact that he's an ancillary storyline this week and not...
the storyline like he often is at many of the majors that he plays in you know like the masters or if there's a british open in ireland and rory's the number one guy and everyone's following rory and everyone's talking about rory i think he's gonna be a little more loose i think he's gonna let bryson and brooks do their thing they'll get all the crowds they're
He's just Switzerland. He's going to be quiet. He'll give a very eloquent take on his thoughts. I like it. I like how it's setting up for him. It could go in the other direction, right? Where now then suddenly everyone starts saying, you know who no one's talking about this week is Rory. I'm a little worried about that.
If that gets going too much and it's like the reverse where everyone thinks they're sneaky by not betting Brooks and Bryson, and then they all hop on Rory, that worries me. But at this current moment on a Sunday morning, he is who I like at the top. He's 23rd in strokes gain off the tee, 18th in strokes gain approach, 13th in sand saves, third in driving distance, 21st in greens and regulation gain, 16th in par four scoring.
Most importantly, the irons, they're kind of back. Rory has now gained over four strokes on approach in three consecutive starts. The last time, the last time that Rory gained over four strokes on approach in three consecutive starts was
It was in 2014 when he won the British open, the Bridgestone and the PGA in three consecutive starts. Rory hasn't hit his irons as well in seven years. And that was when he was at the peak of his powers, right? The only difference between that time period now and then was that he was also gaining like six strokes off the tee during that time period. And now,
You know, he's not quite there yet. But if there's one thing I was making this point to Feinberg, if there's one thing that I want Rory to be lagging in, I would actually choose it to be off the tee because I trust the most that that can come back. If Rory was lagging on approach, I don't know if I've got a ton of great evidence that his irons are just suddenly going to come back.
But if he's lagging off the tee a little bit, I have confidence that maybe the best driver of the golf ball that we have ever seen in our lives, that I've ever seen in my life, in my generation, will be able to figure it out. He gained four strokes off the tee here at Torrey in January. He always drives the ball well here.
He's number one in this field in average strokes gained per round at Torrey, minimum eight rounds. He hasn't played here a ton, but every time he's played here, he's played well. He's number one in this field in strokes gained ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. He's averaging nearly 1.9 strokes on the field. He's ninth in this field in strokes gained approach on courses with difficult fairways to hit and thick roughs.
He always, always, always does his best work on these long, difficult, classical golf courses with thick rough. He's 10th in this field in average strokes gained at Mirafield Village and first in this field in average strokes gained at Bay Hill by a wide margin. Last time he got a crack at a Reese Jones open venue, he blitzed the field by eight strokes. I like it. I like it a lot. 20 to 1,
That's probably my guy. And then after Rory, it starts getting a little weird for me. It's kind of gets a little weird for me. You know, I've been staring at this Finau, Hovland, Reed, Cantlay, Hideki group for a while. I just don't love it. I don't love it.
There's something a little fishy with every single one of those guys. And I got a lot of content coming up this week. I'm sure I'll have the opportunity to talk about all of them. But I don't want to make this a two-hour podcast, so I'm just going to touch on a few more guys that I have interest in. I like Daniel Berger here. And I think Berger is...
Not somebody that a lot of people are going to gravitate to. Just looking at the very, very, very early ownership projections on Fantasy National, he's kind of sandwiched in between like Finau and Reed, two Tory specialists. And then right below him, you've got those two young guns in great form, Zalatorz and Scheffler. And Berger's kind of like
He was an extremely popular play at the PGA Championship, and he's really disappointing there. And he also has a kind of uninspiring track record at Torrey. I think that's kind of going to be at the forefront of people's minds. I like Daniel Berger. He's eighth in my model overall. He's 16th in strokes gained off the tee, 12th in strokes gained approach, 8th in proximity from 200 yards plus, and 7th in proximity from 175 to 200 yards.
So, you know, Berger is, he's no bomber by any means, but he is well above average in driving distance and downright elite with his middle irons and long irons. In fact, Berger and Victor Hovland are the only two players in this entire field that rank inside the top 10 in this field in proximity from 175 and 200 yards plus. He's great on POA. It's been his best surface ever.
The Torrey stuff is a little misleading. He's actually gained 0.4 strokes on the field per round at Torrey Pines South, and he's been weirdly bad on the much easier north course. He rebounded from the PGA with a nice little under-the-radar 20th at the Charles Schwab, but the irons, they got going again.
I'm confident. I'm pretty confident that he's going to be able to build some momentum. And we probably got it a little bit early at the PGA. I like Daniel Berger this week. I like Daniel Berger this week. 50 to 1. I think you could do way worse than 50 to 1 on Daniel Berger. I like Paul Casey this week. I don't know if I'm going to bet it.
If I'm going to have some exposure to Casey, it's probably going to more so be as an outright bet than as a DraftKings play because I know that Casey will be popular in DraftKings. He's always popular in DraftKings. I kind of like him at 50-1 to win. He rates out so well in the model for me. 10th overall overall.
Eighth in strokes gained approach. 37th in strokes gained around the green. 18th in strokes gained par fives. 29th in driving distance. He's sneaky long. Second in proximity from 200 yards plus. 25th in proximity from 175 to 200. Fourth in greens and regulation gained, right? He finished second at Harding Park on Pella. He always plays well at Pebble on Pella. Gained 3.9 strokes putting last time he was on Pella.
We haven't seen him since the PGA where I bet him and he finished fourth. I think I'm going to... I'll bet Paul Casey at every major this year it's looking like. But he gained 8.1 strokes on approach and 2.4 strokes off the tee at Kiowa and lost 1.3 strokes putting. He really...
He really keeps putting himself in position here. He's hitting the ball so well right now. Over four strokes on approach and five of his last measured starts. Two strokes off the tee and back-to-back starts. He was good at winged foot and thick rough. He's been average at Torrey, but I think this is a course that just makes a lot of sense for him. He's eighth in this field and ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. Kind of interested in Casey.
And then I'm going to talk about two more guys. I really like Tommy Fleetwood this week. I really like Tommy Fleetwood this week. It's Sunday morning, but I think he's midway through his final round at Congaree. Best ball striking, most consistent ball striking we've seen out of him in a while at Congaree. I actually hope that he chills out at Congaree and doesn't finish anything better than 33rd.
I don't want that steam, which, again, you don't have to worry about that at all with Fleetwood. I looked at, again, 3% of people are clicking on him at Fantasy National. He's 66-1. We're the best odds that I can find on him. I'm going to wait. I think you could probably do better later in the week. I like Tommy Fleetwood. POA has been a really great service for him.
He's played in five US Opens. He's two top fives, including a runner-up at Shinnecock in 2018. I watched him. Still the best round of golf I've ever seen in my life. That's 63 at Shinnecock. He's good ball striking on long courses.
He is so good. He is so good on these long and difficult courses with Thick Rough. His best two results from this year, 10th at Bay Hill and 14th at Quail Hollow. Long, difficult, classical. I think he's kind of trending in the direction that I'm looking for. I kind of like Mark Leishman too. I think Leishman...
I don't know what people's take on Leishman is going to be. Is it going to be he won at Farmers in 2020? So let's all play Leishman. Is it going to be he hasn't been great in U.S. Opens? He hasn't been playing great at all? I don't know what it's going to be. Again, I looked at kind of just to see how many people were clicking on him. It's like 7%.
Pretty low. I like Mark Leishman here at like 80 to one. Maybe I can get a 100 if I wait. Quote from Mark Leishman after winning the Farmers in 2020. I grew up on this grass. I grew up on Kikuyu fairways and Poa greens.
He's never going to rate out as well in the model as he should. Again, his two best starts of the year were the Masters and the Zurich team event. Those two events are not going to be recorded in Fantasy National. But here's what I like about Leishman. He's six in sand saves, and he's six in proximity from 200 yards plus. 12th in proximity from 175 to 200 yards. Those numbers were...
a big reason that I bet him at the Memorial. And obviously he very much disappointed there with a 57th, but you know, what was interesting is he actually seemed to figure things out off the tee at the Memorial. He finally gained off the tee, but he kind of was bad on approach, which is something that he's usually quite good at. Again, same argument with Rory. I kind of like that. I'm fairly confident he can rebound on approach again.
You know, last time he lost that many strokes on approach. He lost 4.4 at the API. And then he came back the next week and gained 2.9. He's fifth in this field in average strokes gained per round at Torrey Pine South. He loves this course. He always plays this course. He won the farmers in 2020. You know, he finished runner up in 2010 and 2014 to two runner ups and a win.
You know, I think he's kind of a high variance player and he can be a little difficult to figure out from a strokes gain perspective. But I just think the familiarity here, you know, it really suits his eyes. He's big, strong, muscle it out of that rough, positive power putter, positive ball striker on long courses, always plays well at Mirafield, amazing at Bay Hill. I just think this is kind of a good spot for him.
And I think everyone's kind of going to be gravitating to that Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland group. I think those guys are just like a little bit of a trap. I think Woodland, like I dug into Woodland and, you know, I think, I think people are going to have interest in Woodland because, you know, he fits the bomber mode really well. And if you don't want to pay up for a Brooks or a Bryson or a Rom, uh,
You can get a discount one of those guys in Gary Woodland at 80 to 1 at some places. I don't know if Woodland is... I just dug into him a lot post-US Open. I don't know if he's going to be a guy that's going to win two US Opens in three years. I don't think he's been as good
He's really underwhelmed me digging into his statistical profile. I'm not sure he's as good as people may think he is. I think that Gary Woodland, Shane Lowry deal could be a bit of a trap. And I would rather pivot to Leishman and Fleetwood. I like Justin Rose a lot.
I don't know if I'm going to be able to get there. I really like Justin Rose. I like Adam Scott a lot. Now we're kind of getting more into top 40 guys. Matt Wallace and Carlos Ortiz as top 40 plays really stood out to me. I heard Mayo talk a little bit about them on the show, so I'm worried they could become too talked about. They're both 7,100 on DraftKings.
coming in around like 8%, which is not crazy, but for somebody who's 7,100, again, it's all very early. Ortiz and Wallace, they might end up being too obvious and probably want to stay away DraftKings-wise then, but if not, again, if they're closer to 7%, 7%,
I really like those guys. They jumped for me. Top 40 wise, really interested in them. I already have placed a sprinkle on Matt Wallace at 150 to one and pretty close with Ortiz at 175 to one because I just, they have shown me a lot of upside with their irons. And I'm not, again, like, like I said at the top, I'm just,
I'm not sold. I'm not sold that this is a tournament that can be won by 10 players. I'm just not sold on that. I think that's about it. I've already run long. Who else haven't I talked about? I kind of like a little walking Neiman now that everyone is off Neiman. Kind of like that. Kind of like him as like a top 40 play, right? You know, everyone says a short game is terrible, which it is.
But God, man, if he can just tread water around the greens, I think this is a really, really, really great course for him. I'm probably going to play Lanto in the top 40 as well. True to form. Lanto's checking a lot of boxes for me. I could see Ryan Palmer. He makes a lot of sense. Cameron Champ just has sucked, and he is going to...
you know, really, really not be popular this week. I imagine. I don't know. It might be like, he may be too ugly for me. Sometimes I get, I, I get too ugly, but it may be, um, we'll see again. Like,
My top 40s this week, I still feel dirty about this because just what a ridiculous tournament. But my top 40s this week, great week for me at Congaree. It was really good to get back into the green after a disappointing week at Memorial. So I think true to form, I'll probably continue to
completely misread the top of the board and Rory will miss the cut and Brooks and Bryson will be in the final pairing on Sunday and I'll look like a huge idiot, but all my top 40 guys will, will come through for me. Um, that would be pretty true to form for me. So we'll see. I got a lot of content coming up this week. Those are just kind of the guys that have my attention. Um,
The guys I kind of like the most are Rory, Berger, Casey, Fleetwood, Leishman, Wallace, Ortiz, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Joaquin Neiman, Lanto. You know, that could change. I could add some guys. I could remove some guys. We'll see. Tune back in tomorrow. Great podcast with PGA Splits. And then...
The following day, Joe Adoni, Torpix. You know him from the Preferred Line podcast. Super excited to talk to him. That's going to be great. I've got like three or four guest spots this week. Hammercast stat show from the tips with Detroit Dave. Jump the Sharp podcast. Read my article on Roto Baller on Monday.
A lot going on. A lot going on. It's going to be really fun. Once again, if you missed my opener at the top, you have a chance to win an item of your choice. Official gear from the U.S. Open. Whatever you want, I will buy it for you at Torrey when I'm there. All you have to do to enter that contest, subscribe on Apple Podcasts.
Five-star rating and written review. Make sure to leave your Twitter handle or your email in the review so I can contact you and tell you if you want. That's it for me, guys. I will see you guys again on... I think that episode with PGA Splits will come out either late on Monday night or first thing Tuesday morning. Have a great rest of the weekend.
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