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All right, great show today, Betting Picks with Jeff Feinberg. It's totally off the rails, as is every conversation we have together. I think you will really enjoy it. We touch on all sorts of weird stuff. But before we get to the show, I want to talk about BetUS. BetUS is an online legal sportsbook in all 50 states. They have the best numbers on the marketplace all the time. As I mentioned, I've placed one bet for the Open, and I made it on BetUS because BetUS...
had a better number than anywhere else. And my research was really strong with the guy and I was like, I'm in. So thank you, BetUS. Thank you. I am so excited.
We will touch on the player that I'm talking about with Jeff a little bit later in the show, but I could not imagine not having BetUS in my arsenal. I love it, not just because they're golf odds that they will hang all the time, but also because of fast, secure, and easy payouts. So make sure to go to BetUS.com and use promo code PICKTHEPUP. That is the very important part. Use promo code PICKTHEPUP for a 125% bonus on your first deposit at BetUS.com. Let's get to the show.
All right. I've got Jeff Feinberg on the line here from Mayo Media Network. Odds checker as well. The Jeff Feinberg show, which I've been on a bunch of times. So, Jeff, it's great to have you, buddy. You survived the weekend being the main guy with all the kids.
How are you doing, man? You had Mayo show this morning. You're a busy guy this week. I heard the announcement about Rick joining the odds checker show with you to break. I feel like we talk a lot, but break it down for me, man. How's it going? Open week. Yeah, no, obviously super excited. Last major championship of the year. You sort of.
Like I was alone with two kids this weekend, which normally would be like exhausting. Like I'm a delicate flower people like the chargers lose a tough game and like Mondays are mentally exhausting. Like in that, like I was just, but, but today, like Monday of open championship week where I didn't really have futures, uh,
So I was just like pressing at the bit to like see the odds and even read what other people were putting out. And obviously for majors, me and Mayo would record early for the John Deere as early as we can. So for the major, we even recorded extra early. So needless to say, I've gotten through the day with on adrenaline because it's a major and this one feels special. And in many ways, I hope these guys get obliterated.
Like, I hope I win a bet. That would be great. That is so much fun. But, you know, there's so much, there's gazillion variables on that path and luck just to get to Sunday and then luck required on Sunday.
But I just want to see this play. Like when people tell me this is the hardest course in the open rotation, I'm not going to dispute it because I don't know any better. Me arguing would be ignorance on my part. But I hope they're freaking right. So I'm excited for that. Okay, so you bring up a great point that I wanted. This was the first thing that I wanted to talk with you about anyway. Have you checked Windfinder today at all?
Me, personally, no. But Mayo brought it up like twice in the show just to just show like how it was changing within our show from what it was the last time he brought it up. And then I saw he tweeted something later in the day. So I'm just following the right people who are kind of showing it, but I haven't like gone hunting it. But yeah, it looks like it's all happening, doesn't it? Oh.
Okay, so it's certainly all happening. So updated weather report. We're recording this, by the way, at 7 p.m. Eastern time. This will probably be out first thing Tuesday morning. So this could even change by then. But where it stands right now, as of 7.30 p.m. Eastern time, it has picked up, Jeff. I am seeing wind gusts.
that are pretty consistently north of 22 miles per hour all day on Thursday. Just for context, that's about double what it was, I don't know, 36 hours ago, with a peak of 28 miles per hour at 7 a.m. on Thursday. It gets a little bit better as the day goes on, but it just goes to show how much things can change.
Friday looks like slightly more benign, but still consistently in the 18 to 22 mile per hour range. And then Saturday again, gusts from 25 to 28 miles per hour. Sunday, same thing. No real rain at all, just windy. So I guess that's a good thing. So Jeff, I want to start here. Now knowing this at the moment,
that it looks like it's going to be more difficult conditions than we may have predicted, at least at this moment. Of course, it can change again. But does that change how you're breaking down this board at all?
Um, yes, probably. Yes. But I don't think it changed much from where I think I was starting. Although like a lot of people, Andy, I'm sure there were moments today. This might be just be a question of like Bryson. Cause like when you see it's laying down and you're like, Oh my God, there's 30, 35 to one. What if it goes the other way? Maybe you just have to have them on the card.
But then you see this, you're like, there's just no way. It doesn't matter. End the thought. Stop here. Because you go through the fact that this guy, you know, it's the old argument of, you know, when he's like a coach and the game plan is going to plan and he can plot out the game, it's perfect. And he can be magic. But if there's just constant changing, then I don't know. But at the same time, he used to be a scientist. I didn't mean to turn it into Bryson, but that's where my mind goes. If it's going to play doormat,
But I mean, no, I think yes, yes, I would say it has because I started to feel like I'm not betting anybody under 25 to one at their true number.
Like, and, and earlier I may have been there and maybe by the end of the show, I could get talked into that, but yeah, which is pretty rare for me, I guess. Andy, because I love the top, like I'm always willing to get cocky and say, no, it's a major. I get it's not the greatest value, but I'm going to try to pick which one of the like super elites are actually going to rise to the table and work my card hard.
around, around that player. But I don't believe that I'm going to be there. Although I'm tempted by a couple, that's for sure.
Okay, I want to work backwards for a second because I gave a terrible intro into this. I know I've had a lot of new listeners this week. We're talking about the Open Championship. It's at Royal St. George's. Just so everyone knows, it was designed by Dr. David Laidlaw Purves in 1887. It is a par 70 measuring 7,189.
nine yards. I'm not going to talk about the course very much at all, Jeff, unless you have any other thoughts. Um, I've already done like a full breakdown on the course. If you want to hear my thoughts on the course, you can listen to my Sunday pod. You can read my extensive Roto baller article, but just so we're clear, um,
We are talking about Royal state Georgia's here for the open championship. Greg Norman won here at minus 13 in 1993 to give credence to what you just said, Jeff, about B this being one of the more difficult courses on the open radio Rota. He is the only player to win with a total lower than five under. So Darren Clark won at 500 2011.
Ben Curtis won at 100 in 2003. So it's definitely one of the harder British Open venues on the Rota. And as we mentioned with the wind, it looks like it's starting to pick up at this current moment. You mentioned the top of the board.
So, I watched your show with Mayo this morning. I kind of almost didn't want to watch because I wanted to have like a clean slate with you not knowing what you were thinking at all. But I love, new friend of mine, Pat Mayo. I love your guys' show. If you haven't checked it out already, Mayo Media Network, Jeff and Pat, they're every single Monday. Phenomenal show. I got the sense, Jeff, and this is just kind of,
doing a couple shows now with you and talking golf with you a lot, I got the sense that there was a lot of trepidation with you towards the top of the board. So it doesn't surprise me to hear that you're thinking about pivoting. Well, okay. To start, I have to put it out there that last week when we were doing our show last week on Wednesday, I hit a parlay.
England won in the semifinals and the Lightning won the cup that night and the Jays weren't going to lose back-to-back games with the Orioles. That being said, I wish the parlay, the Rory number I have on that parlay is so much worse than the Rory number that's out there today. But the parlay still pays 39 to 1, which is better than 18 or 20 to 1 that Rory pays today. So I have that. That being said, I'm not prepared to bet any of these guys. And it came down to DJ, Rory,
Brooks always gets the respect of surviving to the bitter end when I'm trying to cut the field, cut the field, cut the field, and then make final decisions. But kind of like Spieth, I don't want to watch a guy win his fifth major Sunday, and I don't want to watch a guy win his fourth major Sunday. And unlike you, Andy, who I know you are very...
just hardened to what you're, you can leave your heart out of it. I just can't. Kind of. We'll talk about that. Well, I guess. And I would say even Xander, like I would be thrilled for him, but I don't know. I'd probably just rather bet DJ at like 20 than Xander at 20 or shorter, wherever you could get it. There's two things. Well, sort of like Louie at St. Andrews. I do. You always feel like there's a player of a, you know, a good enough skill that's,
going to just catch a pocket of weather in both days yes you know just like when you're playing that hole you know so well at your home course and there's like uh i never i can't hit it far enough to get it but the buddies that i do play with that are actually really good there's a couple holes where there's like a speed pocket that if they can just get the ball there they get like the extra role yeah yeah of course you know which is what the british is all about by the way
Sure. Well, there's going to be a few guys that are going to get a speed pocket of weather like both days. Now, other parts of their of their wave will get it bad, but they'll literally just be in the perfect zone of like the end of the morning wave. And before it gets bad at the end, like so there's two things you're going to have to contend with the guys that get it so much better than your guys and John Rahm.
Those are the two things I fear this week. And other than that, I think it's going to be not wide open per se, Andy. And I do want to apologize because when we got together on Wednesday and I'm like, no, the U.S. Open gives it to us. This one, like, it doesn't give it to us like that. What are you talking about? And you mentioned all the talking points that can help you narrow down the field. And I do agree with you.
And while I don't think, I think the variable winner is larger here than say a U S open in 2021. I would agree. Absolutely. But it's still, despite the fact that everyone wants to like pocket down that path for the winner on what they've done in the season and in a top meeting, a top 10 recently, yeah. At an open championship, you look at the world rankings, you look at their betting prices and,
they were all still like freaking amazing players. Yes. At the time that they won. And playing well too. Everyone's ranked like top 40. Yes. Except the extreme outliers of Curtis and Clark. And even as I mentioned to Pat, I saw Louis was ranked 54th, but...
Like Shane Lowry was having like an unbelievable season. Shane Lowry was having like the season, very similar to like a Paul Casey is having or Harris English. Exactly. Yes, exactly. Like maybe he didn't have the wins or maybe he had one win, not like two, but a lot of top tens. Yeah.
You know, you just could tell you every way. Like, it's like, no, this guy, like, keeps it clean and is playing a great game. So, yeah, it didn't shock anybody. And I think some people who I do trust in the community had backed Lowry at 80 to 1. So, you know, and his world ranking was, what, 34? Yeah, something like that. Yeah. Or maybe, yeah, so...
In the end, I'm just still feeling bold and to do what I want to do. And granted, this time I'm skipping the very top per se, but I don't know. I think that like 30 to 80 to one range is my sweet spot. And as I kind of alluded to,
I don't like to bet guys that are actually going to win because they're going for their fifth and fourth major. I like to bet losers going without any major championships, hoping that they win. In closing, before we get into it, I like the players. I want to say I'll like be really annoyed if it plays easy, like,
If it plays fun and hard and like they don't even want to bring out umbrellas because they'll blow away so badly or maybe not to that extent. I can handle any outcome. An outcome where it's just like so benign and a guy I didn't bet is running away with, that'll like annoy me a lot. But I can handle getting smoked on my bets if they give us like a classic old timey open championship, I tell you.
Okay. I think they will, by the way, like I, I think that this is going to play hard again. The weather can change. Like it's all kind of, I guess, foolish to predict things on a Monday night. Like we saw, I just illustrated that example about the wind finder to show how much changed in 36 hours from when I last looked at it, the wind literally doubled. It could go down again. It could go up even more. We don't know, but yeah,
It's like a basketball game. A team's up 10, that lead could get cut to tie game or it can go, they're up 20. Like which run is happening next? Yeah. And the tricky position that we're in too, Jeff, is like, we're in the content business. So we got to make the picks. I got to fill deadlines. Exactly. I acknowledge that I'm going to miss weight. Like,
I acknowledge I'm going to miss waves, potentially. But it's just I accept it and I move on. I bet I do the shows. I like to make my bets. I accept that as just whatever it is what it is. If I really love something, considering what odd my first bet is of the tournament, if I really love something, I can add whatever I want. If I think someone got a heater who is in a heater wave who I almost bet, I can make that add. It won't stop me.
A hundred percent. And like, yeah, we're in the business of giving picks. If we get a situation like Royal Troon in 2016, where one wave just gets absolutely destroyed, like that's,
that's just part of the open championship. Like it is like, I'm going to release my betting card on Wednesday and I'm doing a show with you on Monday night and another DFS show with Nagels as soon as we finished recording. So like, we're going to take stands on players and hope that they get lucky enough to not, I don't think we'll have like a crazy split like that. Just looking at the wind. There's not like a situation where the wind is really,
really calm in the morning and then goes like nuts in the afternoon or vice versa. It looks pretty consistent throughout the day. So I don't think we have to worry about something like that happening. But so you mentioned, and I'll just, I'll open up the odds just so everyone is clear about who we're talking about. All odds, by the way, are courtesy of BetUS. Use promo code pickthepup for a 125% bonus on your first deposit. So looking at these guys, Jeff, we've got
And feel free, by the way, to throw out any numbers that you have. I always use the odds checker grid as well. Rom is like at seven to one on bet us. I've seen him as high as 10 to one Brooks. We're looking at that 15 to 18 range. Rory I'm seeing here is 18 to one Dustin 18. I've seen him as high as 22. Justin Thomas. I'm seeing at 20. I'm seeing him as high as 22. We've got Xander at 20. I I've seen him a lot.
lower at some places as well. And I'm seeing Spieth at 20. I think that's probably about the market rate for Spieth. Hovland at 28 on BetUS. I think you can do better than that on Hovland. And Brooks at 28 on BetUS. I've seen Brooks as high as like 35 and 40.
Who? Brooke or Bryson. Sorry. Excuse me, Bryson. Yeah. Hold on. Brooke's at 40. Yeah. Um, Brooke's at four. Okay. Bryson at 40. Okay. So, or 35 predominantly. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know about 40. Have you seen Bryson 40? I haven't seen 40. Yeah. Okay. I haven't seen, I haven't seen 40. I've seen 33. I think I've seen a 35 this morning. Um,
I got a lot of messages, though, from people telling me they were blind betting it. And so we'll see. I doubt we see a consensus 40. I think he'll take enough action to prevent that. But we'll see. Unless you want to hear my thoughts on any of the favorites, as most people know, I'm betting Jordan Spieth. Here's where I'm at with Spieth. I know he's going to be extremely popular. So I'm probably not going to play him in DraftKings. I've spent...
probably upwards now at this point over the past week of 40-ish hours researching the British Open so far. And it literally all kept coming back to one guy.
For me to buck all of my research, Jeff, and just zag because other people are coming to the same conclusion, like not betting Spieth, for me at least, would almost be insulting to my process at this point, if that makes sense. Like, what is the point of me doing all of this research to just not listen to it? So I bet him at 20 to 1.
I think that's a fair number on Jordan Spieth. Will he win? I don't know. Does the player that everyone on Twitter bets usually win? No. Is it usually that obvious? No. But like outside of the golf Twitter community, this is a good question actually that I want to ask you. Do you think outside of the golf Twitter gambling community world that we live in, do
Do you think that Spieth is the guy? Like, is he the conventional wisdom guy that our dads who have no idea what odds are and are just watching golf on Sunday? I know he's like the trendy pick in our world, but I feel like the New York Post golf pick, I feel like it's Rahm and Brooks, right? I feel like those are the guys. Or is it Spieth too? Is it just Spieth mania? I think Spieth is still part of that.
I'm telling you, when you're like Jeff Sherman's come out on Wednesday and show us the numbers, Andy, of the handle and the total dollars. I'm expecting him maybe to be at the top of both. And that would indicate it's not just the niche Twitter. It's more than that. That being said, you did all this data that pointed to this. Correct. I just like the naked eye kind of pointed to this. Sure. In my opinion, just like...
Who is setting up well for this at this moment? And you start to like hear the trend, like even before you like hear all the trends, you're like, Oh my God, it's him. I've thought this for, yeah, I've had him earmarked for months. Props to all the people that like quickly might have some nice futures, you know, that, that sort of jumped past these other majors. I know the masters was popular. He was getting hot right then. We were so happy about their inflated masters futures and,
You know, if you sort of have the long range approach of how, you know, this could play, then props to you on that. Despite it being, you know, so obvious and like I see it, it makes total sense to me. I get 100% why everyone is kind of coming to the conclusion. Even Mayo joked today on the show that like,
you know it's always like a thing you know we joke about like the lock and the magic bean but like he's like i've never actually capped an event like thinking like strokes gain magic beans is a thing like that i'm actually gonna potentially in my own head like quantify and not just strokes gain magic beans but strokes gain like guts because that's what it kind of takes and scrambling so
So it's like, oh, my God. Like, that's before the research. When you go into an Open Championship thinking a bit of that and then the guts and the scrambling, like, you're already thinking Spieth before you even do a nugget of research. So I see it, but I'm not – I don't know. It's majors. I like to root for guys I want to see –
To see win. And I get it like you. There's guys I like so much that at times I don't even need to bet them that winning them would make me feel rich anyway. So sometimes I like don't even pick them for that reason. But...
Yeah, I don't know. I'm off on Spieth. I expect him to carry the handle like I really do. Rom is unbettable to me. Justin Thomas, I don't really want a part of. How good he was around, he's sort of, I don't know. I'm not sure. I can tell you my Thomas stuff. I know we spoke about it last Wednesday. I'm sure you went on about it heavily in your research show.
you know brooks spieth zander rory is how i would cut down that tier and if you want to call zander shot this is a nice the line always sucks but i like i don't know wouldn't shock me one one bit and i'd be thrilled for him
You're probably right on speed, by the way. I kind of like when I was reading some kind of less sharp or less focused on gambling outlets just to kind of see what the storylines were. I felt like a lot of people were talking about like how much is ROM going to win by? And I felt like it was ROM, ROM, ROM, ROM, ROM, ROM, ROM. But I think you're right about the handle. I think bettors are still going to say, okay,
I've been priced out of ROM, if that makes sense. Oh, we've all been priced out of ROM. Correct. And I bet, like, if you're the casual, that, like, you know, like you say, you just bet majors, and you don't even care about long shots. Like, I got buddies that would just love a, like, no, 8-1s are great now. Like, only golf...
betters like mock an eight to one winner. Yes. Yes. The only people that's a huge hit. Go ask your buddies who bet football or basketball, like anything eight to one. Like what the hell? Yeah. You know, we're all, and, but we got to do this every week and we'd rather like just bet six guys and lose and have to pick, then pick one.
You know, it sucks that I've been priced out of ROM. It does. But at the same time, I love ROM. We all think he's capable of everything. The fact that there's a, that you could put in your mind, there's a way that he could have just won three straight events. And if he only won one, he won the one that mattered most, but I'm still not at a place where he can be a, and the other guys are 20. Like I still think closer than that, despite,
I agree. Despite Dustin being the number one ranked golfer in the world, to me, John Rahm is the best golfer in the world. That doesn't surprise me one bit. Okay. So let's open this up then. So if you're skipping that top tier,
I'm assuming that you're going to someone in the group of Cantlay, Hatton, Fleetwood, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Fitzpatrick is in there. Shane Lowry's in there. Westwood's like 45 to one at this tournament at some places. Scheffler's like 50 to one. Finau is 50 to one at a lot of places. Um,
Where are you going if you're skipping kind of the top? Because I think this range is pretty interesting as well. And I have one bet and potentially two bets in this range already. Yeah, so this range is going to be my butter. I'm just trying to think. This is just the range where...
We've seen a lot of those. I'm chasing that first-time major winner, and this is the range where they come from. I think the first four guys you did mention, Andy, are the players that I have bet. Did I mention Louie and Morikawa, by the way? I feel like I skipped right over them. And Hovland, I think you mentioned. I did mention Hovland. Before we get into the guys I'm picking, we'll do one more tease. This is what I want to ask you. So much is being made...
So many great research shows. Mayo's great article. You put out a great content. The content Steve Bamford puts out is great and always has me before a major. Those three, what, those, I don't know, just even their accents. Like, you know, it's just, oh my God, he gets, yeah, Barry and the gang together. It's just good stuff. I love that podcast. Shout out to Bamford. Those guys are great. You know,
Yeah, and there's no, like, bullshitting, you know? No. I'm a bullshitter, so I appreciate there's, like, no bullshit there. You know, that's just straight boom. So I loved all those points. You know, they really do break it down, and the experience factor, and strictly from an outright perspective, right? We all know debutantes like the Masters can play great. We've seen Zala Taurus and him at the Masters. We've seen every year. The same things happen at the Open with Bobby Mack.
But are you just like blindly crossing off guys? Or do you believe like these kids today, they are kind of built different and it wouldn't shock you if they won. Or are you like me? Wouldn't shock you if they won. And there's a couple you'd feel sad to miss, but I think I just have to cross them off because this course feels like it just, it's like the truest of true links golf is,
So many ways it takes that point to an exaggeration, but it feels weird to just slash zero and one timers off the list per se. Yeah. So I thought about that a lot. And I know we even touched on that a little bit last time when we did your show last Wednesday. I feel like I've I don't think I've changed my opinion too much when I dug into it a little bit more.
I don't like Hovland in this spot. And I don't know if it's as much because of he's like a newcomer. I guess it's kind of because of a newcomer, but I just don't like him on strategic golf courses. Like he's terrible on Pete Dye courses. And I do take your point. I thought the point that you made this morning on Mayo show was,
that guys like Hovland and Morikawa are just kind of built different in terms of the way that they were brought up in golf. I'll never forget that Kevin Kisner quote where they ask him and he's like, do you mentor any of the young guys? And he's like, mentor? What the fuck are you talking about? Those guys are more ready to win than me. God, like in a nutshell, they kind of. Yeah, they have no fear. College golf is. They have no fear. Yeah. No fear. None. None.
It's like Russell Wilson. Just, okay, I'm in the league. I'm going to win the Super Bowl now. Like Morikawa. It's almost like, yeah, go ahead. Go ahead. No, it just, I don't know. Like, it just feels like they're asked to do more and they're capable of so much more. And I guess it's just a fun side conversation that maybe someone who just wants the milk right now is going to be annoyed with Andy. But, like, where would you, if you had to bet,
debutant is more like the masters feels so much harder to get into, but what are we more likely to see at debutant in our lot? Like first here or the masters? I think the math here. Okay. I think the master still, just because like, um,
I do think that this is a little bit of a different animal. Now, we'll probably reach the point in the week, Jeff, where we actually start to overrate how different lengths golf is from regular golf. It's still golf. You still have to hit the shots. I remember I played in a literal monsoon at Old MacDonald, which is like this crazy lengths course at Bandon Dune.
If I hit the ball on the center of the club face, like I was okay. Right. So it's not like they're going in a space shot spaceship to Mars. I don't think that Hovland is incapable of playing well here. You still have to hit the shots. He's one of the top 10 ball strikers in the world. I think I would still just rather take my chances with guys that have a little bit more experience playing in these conditions. Whereas like we saw with Zala Torres at the master's,
I feel like the learning curve is maybe a little bit smaller, if that makes sense. Even though the master's is an incredibly nuanced course, I still feel like all of the factors that go into this, whether it be the body clock adjustment and all that stuff that everyone talks about, I think it's something maybe not as much as other people do, but I think it's something.
I mean, those are all great points, and I could agree with you, and I could be convinced either way. My initial leaning to think that we're more likely at the open, I guess, despite the field size, even though a lot more of them are jabronis than ones with actual chances. That's a good point. Of lifting a jug. Yeah. Was that like, we're at a course now where...
the best player in the field, John Rahm has played it competitively as much as Colin Morikawa. Correct. Like all these guys, like even Phil, like, so Dustin, he's been here. What? Once like something like the masters, they act like, I,
I'm just saying like on certain courses because of the road. No, I get what I get exactly what you're saying. Not even like those guys have that much experience other than saying the whole open experience year after year is, you know, counts, which I agree with. But on the spot, when asking myself quickly, I guessed we wouldn't be more likely to
I didn't bet any debut toss, but I will say I agree with you. Hovland could – strategy has hurt him. I have learned that the hard way, betting him at courses that probably imply strategy, and we've seen him have great success here.
I know the thing with the U.S. Open, but even like Torrey in the... Torrey's a great course for Hovland. Yeah, it's just like straight... For the reasons that the architecture community hates Torrey Pines. Correct. Yes, exactly. Exactly. But then you see these stats, Andy, about how few greens Curtis and Clark missed and how few bunkers that they were in.
And then that leads me back to say, like, all of these... I don't want to say losers. But, like, from Victor to, like, the absolute end of that spectrum, that would be like a griot. Like, well, I don't know. I guess if they play their ceiling and they're just hitting the green... They don't... Like, those guys won because they... Because they hit a ton of greens in regulation. Like, if you're bad at that thing, but you...
The only way to winning this tournament is actually like not being in those things more than four or five times. Then that's why I'm betting Paul Casey, who's the second best iron player in the world. Okay. You know, sort of to that point, like exactly like, okay, I know that's going to be hard for him if we get there. And I don't doubt on Sunday to maintain momentum, I'm going to get one of those bunkers and maybe need a clutch up and down, but,
But if he's going to have to be great out of bunkers this week, I've already freaking lost. Like, doesn't matter. That bet.
So you're talking about Casey? Well, just anybody. Yeah. Yeah. Casey's got a pretty good short game. Like I'm just saying how few bunkers Clark and Kurt has gotten. Exactly. Well, yeah, I guess like, so if I'm betting Victor, like, yeah, I'm betting him to his ceiling, which is not being in those situations. I'm not betting Victor. It would pay me if he wins. I guess I'm still debating if I want to bug the folks at a certain book or
to make me my fun Victor by, you know, whole prop. But this one, you know, feels like it's going to be hard enough. I don't know if I actually even have the courage to do that this week, to be honest. But I do believe Victor's ability to just sort of smile and roll with the punches will, uh,
certainly lead him to one of these jugs one day. Sure. And I think, I mean, this is a betting show. I'm not betting Victor to win. I think Victor, I mean, I would like to see what the ownership comes in at DraftKings. I mean, I think he could be a very interesting leverage play. Same thing with Morikawa. If guys just count Morikawa,
Guys count these players out and we're starting to see it happen with Bryson, which I don't know if I have the balls for completely, but you know, like at the end of the day, Jeff, and this is why I had so much interest in Paul Casey. And then I want you to tell me who you're betting in this range. But I heard Pat's point about Casey has a game that is more suitable for American golf. And I don't disagree with that, but I,
What if it isn't as brutal as we think it is? Because I've heard a lot of missed messages so far. And it kind of gets to the point about what you were just talking about a little bit with Victor with the ball striking. So he keeps finishing top fives in these majors, losing strokes putting. And three of the last five majors, he has had legitimately a great chance to win if he putts just okay. And I just think that the way the wind is right now,
It's probably favoring more of your grinders and your guys like Spieth and your guys like Bazaydenhout and your guys like Patrick Reed and your guys like Cam Smith. But I think there is very much a universe where that changes again. Like I've heard a lot of players, you mentioned the Bamford podcast. Like I know the wind has changed and gotten worse since then, but they were talking about how they thought it was going to play relatively easy.
I mean, just in terms of the course, right? Like it's going to be very windy at this point, but we're not seeing any inclement weather, right? A lot of the time at the British Opens, it's not just the wind, but it's the rain and the monsoon kind of aspect of the whole thing. It looks like it's just going to be windy. It doesn't look like there's any rain in the forecast. And I think if this course...
plays a little bit easier than we expect, then strokes gain approach literally just becomes the most important stat on pretty much any course. It's iron play. And Casey's the second best iron player in the world right now behind Morikawa. And so I think that there is a universe. I think that there is a universe where that less kind of
We just don't know. And I feel like a good strategy is you want to have your card covered with all sorts of types of players. You've got your grinders, but then like your ball strikers too, because we don't, we don't fucking know Jeff. Okay. I agree with a lot of what you said. Sometimes in like small ways, I like to protect myself in a way.
where if I think it's going to play easy, I love still just having Patrick Reed just in case. Yeah, I'm betting him too. It goes the other way. But I do like to more stack because I feel like I'm not good enough or cocky enough to be like, okay, I'm going to pick two guys with three different playing styles, two for each, and hope of the guys that I'll do that, I pick the right guy.
to kind of... So I'm more like... I really am more of like an all or nothing type guy, except, you know, maybe sometimes going... Like in this case, I would be all like crafty and then, you know...
And then Bryson, that would sort of be the one. Sure. Like, you know, way that I would put it, but like Bryson, like if it does lay down, like, let me protect myself with this. I don't think I'm going to be doing that. Just putting that out there. It was just a strategy thought I've had. Like I'm sure many of you have had, I'm in a scary position now where I did two shows today with people. I respect greatly as much as anybody in the space. One of them, uh,
like scoffed at Casey when I bring them up the other one like I think people are gonna stop him and I am so weak with Paul Casey I was like okay thank you Pat like because like any nudge toward Casey I'm like I'm I'm a delicate flower Andy like one of these guys that I've wasted so much money on sometimes I only I need to see someone I respect like pushing me that way and and I'm in um
Can I just tell you the, the, the, the reason why I'm betting Paul Casey, Jeff, and I get like, I get that people are not going to like him. Like I said, I actually think that Pat's point is pretty well taken. I mean, I think that we probably overrate his performance, his, or his lack thereof performance in difficult courses and wind and links courses. Like I,
You know what's hard? The majors. You know who always plays well at the majors? Paul Casey. The last time the British Open was in England, in his home country, 2017 at Birkdale, Casey finished 11th. It was hard there. I watched that film. The weather kept changing. It was a bitch. He's fine in those conditions. And if you ask me, Jeff, what is more likely? Paul Casey randomly having a week where he gains four or five strokes putting,
Or someone like Poulter or Westwood or Fleetwood, who I really wanted to bet. I just, when I dug into them, I was like, Jesus, these guys are really not as good right now as I thought they were.
What is more likely Casey having a week where he finally makes some pots or Poulter Westwood or Fleetwood after months of just being a neutral to negative ball striker, just randomly gaining eight strokes on approach. It's Casey having a good putting week, 10 times out of 10, he's finishing top seven in these majors, losing strokes, putting. So if they give me a 50 on Casey, who's literally right there in all of these majors, I'm just going to take it.
You don't have to, Jeff. I don't want to talk you too much into it. It is Paul Casey at the end of the day. You'll probably be pulling your hair out over some short putts, but that is my reasoning for taking it because I wanted to bet Fleetwood really badly, and I wanted to bet Lee Westwood really badly for the record, and I just dug into them, and I was like, wow, these guys are really unimpressive. Fleetwood is so unimpressive. Why am I such a sucker for the guy? As somebody...
I'll say this. It's not been a fun ride in Fleetwood world. Last year was so disappointing for him. He like wrote a Christmas time, like apology post. I saw that Twitter or Instagram. I saw that. And this year, like, well, there've been fleeting moments. There's really been nothing of the past. So that hurts. That being said, I'm betting Tommy Fleetwood this week. I bet Tommy Fleetwood 50 to one. I like good number on Tommy.
I like Paul Casey a lot. So I guess he's... Hatton's probably the best of them, Jeff. I just feel like I've been priced out of Hatton a little bit. Like, I like Hatton probably more than I like Paul Casey. I just... There was a 50 on Hatton, like, at a local that I had access to on Sunday afternoon. And I checked back on Monday morning and Hatton was like 30 everywhere. Which you probably have room for, but I don't because I'm betting Jordan Spieth. Okay.
Okay, well, I scoured the internet for something today, and I did find a number at one of those books that I didn't have access to.
But my friend did, and it requires Bitcoin for money. This is all normal to him, not to me. I'm not one of those anti-Bitcoiners. Sure, sure. You don't have to. I'm sort of in everything, right? A little bit here. I'm not all in on anything. I'm nothing on anything. But I never want to pay a sportsbook in Bitcoin, like ever. Yeah, me neither, I don't think. That's so weird to me.
Nonetheless, they had a 45, and I bet it. So that's my cut number. You should feel great about that, and we may have to talk off-air about that too. Yeah, the weird thing about this book is, I don't know, man, you could just scour around because people have access to it. People do have access to it, but they're also...
I don't know. It's going to sound so sketchy. Like when I say this, you're going to be like, great. I might win the open, but I don't think you're going to get paid fine. Like this book isn't even accepting new clients. And maybe when I say that people will know exactly which book I'm talking about. But yeah, that's, that's the book.
um okay so you're in on hatton um who knows if you'll get paid though you're tentatively you're on the fence about casey do we need to talk about patrick reed i feel like we both like patrick reed i bet patrick reed yeah me too 45 to 1 i bet patrick reed i if you listen to me with mayo today or should be like there was not a way that i didn't think i was gonna bet reed even if i went to the top
Reed would have been on this card and other bodies would have been sacrificed. Um, was never Patrick Reed not being on this bedding card probably since like the start of the weekend. Once I really started to, you know, look at things. Um, yeah, you know, he's like Spieth, but it's more of like, you know, Spieth,
He'll like make his own magic beans if he has to. Yeah. No. Yes. It's that. And it's tenacity. And I know a lot of things that don't show up in models, but models can support Reed too. But to that guy this week, you know, even I keep going back to it, but, you know, Mayo is very rarely like not by what his numbers say.
And he's on Spieth also. Like you, that's an easy decision. Great players win majors. This is the great player that's clearly a top. I'm going to bet him. Yes. But I've never heard Mayo in a show before acknowledge. He's never acknowledged variables that he acknowledged today.
I don't mean like open championship variables, like draw and bad breaks and bunkers and fescue and seaside wins. I mean like guts and magic beans. Like I almost like couldn't believe what I was hearing. But to bet a guy to win this tournament, if you don't believe he has those –
I don't know how you could like hit submit with giving a website your money. Like if you don't believe the guy's got some guts and tenacity. So I say that after I literally just told you guys, I bet Tommy Fleetwood. I obviously have like, I'm biased there. I know they're somewhere deep inside. I mean that. No. And I mean, listen, man, it's a major like,
You should bet Tommy Fleetwood. I'm talking to Nagels in an hour. I guarantee you there's a reason that I've left a spot open on my card. There's like probably a 99.9% chance that by the week's end, I will, even though I don't need money on Xander to be happy if he wins, I'll still find a way to justify it in my head. So Fleetwood at 50, I think that's a good number. You know,
you know, he's still like, uh, when I look into it, it's, I like with Fleetwood, I think there's an easier path for Fleetwood than there is for Westwood and Poulter. Um, like Fleetwood, I mean, his short game is still unreal. Um, like he's just been turned into this around the green wizard, but, uh,
Anyone we miss in this range before I open it up into like a longer guys. What about Cantlay? That was going to be the other guy, Patrick Cantlay, where I'm sitting in the great North. There was a 40. Yep. So that's the spot I left open to that is between like Xander for me. It's Cantlay. Yeah.
It's clean golf. It's, it's double Xander's price for equal win equity. In my opinion, in my opinion. Yeah, you're right. I know. That's not a no. I think Xander's great, but that might be more indicative of what I think of Patrick Cantlie, a very clean player. This goes to like the super trends this week for a moment, Andy, we're like, they have to have the previous top 10 in this and all that. Like,
Just as an example, if when we're previewing next year's U.S. Open or in five years, we're previewing the U.S. Open and you mentioned you're going through Bryson's resume and you mentioned 2021 26th place, I'll have forgotten then. But that's like a joke. I know. It's a joke. Yeah, he was leading on the back nine. Yeah, like no. And sure, when he fell out of it and caught a bad break, did he kind of just meant, you know, it's an exhausting week. Like we expect that.
from a guy who doesn't give a shit about like the 10 grand for that putt to finish in 20th or 14th or 9th. Like, you know, he's not playing the same goddamn game as...
help like some but pat and kazire is maybe sure yeah i love i love that i'll get what i'm saying i got i got i don't know so can't lee has a 12th at the open so like i don't know what happened to him on the 8th just like can't leave was it the pj championship where like he tripled the last or something he's been in majors i mean he held where they fit it like the variables on like
Oh, like he would fit this perfect trend to be called for this win. Yeah, no, I mean, I'm not, yeah. Had he been a 10th, but he has a 12th.
okay man he's not included which it which is stupid by the way in like in a sense as well because like Patrick Reed there's another trend about you have to have a top 15 in one of your last three finishes and like that rules out Patrick Reed who's has like a 21st a 25th and a 32nd and he like lost strokes putting in both of them it's like okay like it's it's
It's fine. It's fine. Yeah, no. And I get those trends are important, but I could see that... But this is maybe a way of me saying, there's this great super trend out there. And with the littlest fungibility...
Like the little bit. Great use of fungible, Jeff. The little most like flexibility. Because with all these outright bets, we have to convince ourselves, right? Yes. Before I can try to get in front of a microphone and convince someone else to bet it, I've got to be convinced. And then it's easier to talk about it. Yeah. But...
So I, oh, there's the super trend of having one in their last X starts and having, you know, done X and then having this career top 10 at the open. Can't we, can't we? Oh, a 12th at the open. No, I'm making that work for me. So I'm going to go on and tell Andy's audience that that 12th is as good as 10, as far as I'm concerned.
So that's where I am with Cantley. I'm with you. So I left, I have this spot open for me in between Reed and Spieth that I'm deciding between Xander, Cantley, and I guess Hatton. I'm just anticipating, I want to get like clean, just clean. I think he has a-
Or you can take Cantley in as I even, I keep referencing the show I did with Pat, but whatever. I, you know, I did it this morning. So I just got it. It's on my mind. Or you could like pay double and get, or, you know, get double the odds and get an English or another guy back there answer who you believe like, no clean, clean golf. But I'm doing the guy in that heater range that I like.
with a ceiling that I believe is as good as just outside the tier of the true greats of the moment in our time.
I'm with you, man. When I ran all of my numbers and I did like three different models by hand and kind of mix them all together to get like a conglomerate ranking, my top three were Spieth, one, Zander, two, and Cantlay, three. I think he's playing really, really good golf right now. He's a form guy, Jeff. When he's cold, he's cold, like we saw with those four missed cuts.
Um, but when he's hot, he can really turn things on and we're starting to see it again. Like he did this at the beginning of the season. I don't know if you remember where, remember when he won the Zozo and then immediately at the start of the year, he just kept going and finished like second at the Amex where he shot a 61 and then broke the course record at Pebble beach. Like,
I think we're starting to see that a little bit with Cantlay, or at least the trends when you look at his ball striking are starting to show that. So I'm with you. I think that, I mean, Cantlay is like a guy for me. I'm very close with. I haven't pulled the trigger yet. I'm seeing a lot of 35s. I think that's fine too. 40 is like Jeff's guess. Yeah, and I've seen the 35s. You know, I don't know if...
I don't know. There's a, you know, there's a book out here in Canada that looks like it's, uh, it's out as we get it, but it's out of Scandinavia and it looks like it's some high school project, but, um, like HTML project, but they always give you a couple extra, extra points. They keep it cool. Um, but what was I going to say? I also don't think I've seen him mentioned anywhere to be honest. So maybe that 35 becomes a 40.
Because I've read some other people. Like, I feel like I am the only guy out there who has, like, said they're betting him at this moment. I'm not saying the books aren't taking action. And I don't say that, like, I don't move lines. I know what you're saying. I know exactly what you're saying. But, you know, there are guys, there are a few people out there that do move them.
Um, because like, I feel like Ben Coley moves lines in the UK move. Ben's article goes up. Will Hill drops everyone. He mentions 20 points. Yeah. He mentioned other books that like quickly move. And then there are books that are slow to move. Like, Oh shit. Ben's article went up two and a half hours ago. I know on this book, I might still be able to catch the AM number, but those books that are on the ball,
They move. I even joke with our friend, Eric Patterson from the score. Andy Eric's great. I'm having him on the pod next week. Yeah. He doesn't. Like Eric, he's recreation does great work. He's not like a big better. He's not like a whale. He's not like putting a book out of business. Yeah. When this book out of Canada that I just referenced a few minutes ago, like first, like got on our radar, Eric hit like three winners in a row.
And he doesn't like that huge stakes. So I doubt it's nothing like a sports book couldn't handle. But every time Eric bets, even a small amount, like he tells like they, they must have something in their system that like he was red flag. The moment like he makes a bet, they cut the number instantly. I'm like, Eric, you have to tell me, cause I don't want to lose numbers to you. You move the system.
So, I don't know. But there are people like Ben that actually move it. Like, because, I don't know, people...
Hey, listen, if you're going to trust anybody, Ben's as good as anybody to blindly go to the well with. And I have a lot of groupthink with Ben this week. So I'm actually quite thrilled about that as it pertains to Hatton, as it pertains to Tommy. He's betting Tommy. Yeah. Even more guys, actually. Well, that I'm thinking I have bet. Well, if you want to go far. Yeah, let's break it. Let's get to the bigger guys, too. So like a complete anyone's fair game, like longer guys.
Who's your guy, like, I guess, above 50 to one will say? Do you have a ton of action in that? Do you have a ton of longer shots this week? Above 50 to one. I'm staring at a burger 69 here. Wow.
who I know, you know, Ben is. I bet Berger at every major this year. Yeah, I played him at the US Open. I feel like he should be a lot more live than he is, but he kind of feels like a forgotten soul. Certainly. And I bet I pulled the trigger on Fowler. I don't know, man. No. I was out of my mind for the moment. So Fowler's got to get that money. 80 to 1 is the number. Greats.
I always wish it was a little high, but I don't think it's that unfair, to be perfectly honest. Am I crazy? Yes, Andy. No, no. Jeff, Jeff, I love Fowler this week. Yeah, it was good.
This feels okay. And you, I'm not even a Fowler guy. Like you, you know me, I kind of bow to the numbers. I'm not going to like, I'm not going to give someone out if I don't have good evidence for it. This feels like a spot to me where Ricky would be very overhyped and very popular. Like he's pretty cheap on draft Kings. I think, like you said, his number is fair. I think despite the fact that he is now probably the most playable that he's been in a year, he's,
people are kind of like over it. I haven't heard any Fowler talk either. I've been so busy. I haven't gotten to listen to really anyone besides you and Pat, but I feel like everyone, I want to say at the travelers was back on Ricky. Was that it? Was it the travelers where everyone was back on Ricky and he, and he missed the cut. And I think a lot of people were like, okay, fuck that. We're not doing the Ricky thing anymore. But yeah,
You look at the decent in Detroit, but no sort of marked his finish in Detroit. No, I, I, I, Pat is a friend now, but come on, let me just say this. You look at the spot here. Hold on. I do want to say, I think Pat, he admitted like he was kind of effing with me. And I think he did close with, he actually doesn't mind Ricky at all this week.
He wasn't going to make that bet, but he didn't shade it like he would if he actually thought I was crazy. And Jeff, I'm not betting him outright, but that's just because there's another guy at 70 that I'm all over. English who?
You ready for this? Let me just say, let me cap the Fowler conversation real quick. Sorry for interrupting. No, no, no, you're good. So, Rick, he's played in 10 British Opens. He's missed the cut once. He's three top tens. He finished runner-up at Liverpool in 2014 in England, six at Royal Port Rush in 2019. And Jeff, just to harken back,
uh, to what we were talking about, about with this course, you know what I haven't heard anyone say once this week, do you know that Ricky finished fifth here in 2011? Like Ricky finished fifth here at Royal St. George's in 2011 with Anthony Kim. Like no one has said that. And you know, like I said, I wouldn't play Ricky if he didn't check the numbers box for me. Um,
His ball striking is completely trending in the right direction. His short game has been unbelievable. I think Fowler is a sharp play this week. I'm playing Ricky in DraftKings. I'm playing him in the top 40 market. I think Ricky is a sharp play this week. I like Ricky Fowler a lot. He is not being... I am surprised at the lack of Ricky...
love that I have seen thus far. I know that you're just a, I'm a Ricky guy, but I want you to know that the numbers do back it up this week. I think he's a really great play. I wouldn't just say that. Like I told you, I don't think I have my doubts about Fleetwood. I think Fowler is a great play. Yeah. And I'm also like, yeah, I mean, I can, I,
I'm so messed with Ricky that I like sometimes even justify to myself, like it's not even included in my card. It's like on my card. And then it's like, no, I just have this bad on Ricky. Cause that's what you do. Like for the guys, you know, like that, I don't know who are, you know, 80 to one. I think I even saw maybe as high as 90, but I didn't have any access to that, to that place. So I don't know. There's a lot of names back here.
But Ricky would be the one. That being said, the smart guys are more looking at grace and more looking at Leishman and looking at English, who all make a ton of sense. Yes, I like a lot. Oh, was that did I know? Yes, your guy. You actually haven't guessed my guy. Do you want me to tell you now? You try. Go for it. Yeah. Give me two more. This is pretty bad.
Maybe, well, I don't know what number you could have. It's around, like, I got 70. It's around 66. I haven't bet. No. I don't know. Tell me. Why not Cam Smith, Jeff? Okay, yeah. So...
I guess I should have guessed that. Yeah, no, he does. He checks a lot of like the pre model boxes of the scrambling and the guts that you would kind of want. And him winning this trophy wouldn't surprise me one bit. I just like, I don't have enough money like for it to work, but I don't, I don't not like it. Um, play him in draft Kings too. No one's playing him. I think there's a good, there's four Australia. Like that's an interesting market in and of itself. Um,
Because I think I can make a conversation that they're all sneaky in their own right. From Cam to Mark. I like Mark too. And Day. Sneaky little group there. All with high odds, right? Yeah, all in that neighborhood. And above. I'm sure there's just like the Aussie loyalist who's probably... I don't know. Cam Davis and Lucas Herbert just did it. Sure. One of the bigger boys.
Min Woo Lee too, right? Or is that a New Zealand flag he represents? Oh, I don't know. I don't care. We'll call it part of it. And it's no surprise to think guys from that part of the world have a propensity to play well in open championships. Greg Norman won this event. Yes, he did. At Royal St. George's, yeah. Yeah, so...
Yeah, I don't even, I like Cam Smith. I, though I don't even know, gotten to my head, he'd be my like number one Aussie pick, but I think I could pull a straw and maybe be happy with any of them, but I'm not betting any of them. I think they're close. Like I just look at Cam Smith and it's like,
People were betting him at 45 to one at the PGA championship. And it's like now no one likes him and he's almost double the odds. Like I think Cam Smith can win this tournament. Um, he's played in three British open now has gotten better every time. I know he doesn't check that box of the trends that we were talking about, but he finished 20th at,
Port Rush. And I think he fits the Zach Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen mold of player, Jeff, that like it makes a lot of sense on paper, but no one really considers it until it actually happens. Like he's won this year. He checks that box too. I know as a team event.
but he checks that box. Australians, as you mentioned, have a great history at open championships. You want to talk about bunkers, Jeff, Cam Smith is third in sand saves. He's like the best bunker player in the world outside of Patrick Reed. The weather looks like it's getting scarier day by day. Give me Cam Smith. I'm not going to fight you on that one bit.
I'm just, I've got decisions to make and guys I'd be sadder if they won and I didn't bet. So that's who I kind of have to bet, but I know beef. I love cam rocking. Oh man. It's rocking the penguin, but I was almost going to know the name of that penguins name. Don't ask why I would know that, but. Yeah.
No, because there's a shirt that he wore once and it's called like... I know he's sponsored by Penguin. Yeah, I know. And that penguin actually has a name. Oh my God. He's named his penguin? No, the...
Penguin is the company. Yeah. Like, just like how, like Jeffrey, the draft toys are Russ. Like, okay. I guess. I can't believe we're here. This is so dumb. Oh my God. All right. All right, Jeff. I'm listen. This is why Pat is the host that he is. And I'm still learning. Okay. Bombs. Like anyone that we haven't talked about.
100 plus, whatever. Any guys you want to throw out there, even if it's not on an outright bet, is there anyone that you think is going to shock the world this week or is just a great play maybe for a prop? I know you do that excellent video for Odds Checker where you throw out some top 20s. Anyone like that that you could see having a great week? I'm kind of in a hard place there. I don't mind...
Matt Wallace, but I've been a sucker for him, you know, flirting in that 100, 110 to one range. From a super long shot perspective, bland. Chris Kirk. I like Kirk. You know, he's sort of... There's like a chain as you go down of...
Like he has that, that Cantley skillset to a sense, but you know, not as good and 250 to one. Yeah. Yeah. But it's sort of like that clean, let's keep it clean and see where we are. Right. Like, yeah.
Like if you told me at the LA, Chris Kirk was in the same amount of bunkers, greenside as Clark and Curtis. Okay. That's what we would have to do. And you know, me and Danny Willett, if this wants to just be a feisty guts fest, I'll have to have a little on Denny. I don't see myself really being invested in here though. Me neither. Andy.
um you know it was fun in the super lead-ups to the event to sort of play the the long shot thinking because of darren clark but as we said off the top once you sort of get here and break it down i'm just looking at like the the the you know how good the players were when they were like the majority of these open champions their world ranking i'm just gonna i'm
It emboldens me to just stay in the range that I like to bet. And to be honest, because I'm not at the top, I don't know how to put this. I know you're a lot smarter than me. You realize how silly outright betting is, but it's fun and great for content. Yeah, of course. It's the smartest bettors that I know who even love golf.
They will not bet outright. Matchups and yeah. There's just like, they don't, the variables that go into these, like to win a golf tournament, the eight gazillion with 150 man fields and everyone has their own 800 variable path on the margins this small, but they do love to play like the head to heads. They find lines in those the same way they find lines in there's 120 NCAA games on a random Saturday.
Do you know what I mean? Like, yeah. Oh, no, completely. Matchups like they're more like, no, that's an edge. Yeah. Like even if they find an edge in that, right. So like,
They don't even think it's worthwhile playing. And I even laugh at my buddies sometimes like, oh, this number's here and it's 60 there and they haven't moved it. I'm like, that book doesn't care. They're happy for you to get 15 more points because that guy just made a birdie and they haven't moved their line. They don't give a shit. Yeah. Like, obviously, if this system of them like reacting slow was actually burning them, they'd invest in reacting faster.
They're still completely, they're cool with it. Yeah. Yeah. They're cool with it. Oh, you think you're getting a deal? Like bet it again. Uh, that being said, uh, when I am not betting a guy like under 25 to one Andy to win one of these tournaments gives me a lot of money to play with. It does. It certainly does. I don't bet like, uh, I'm not really an each way guy, but,
You'll see people who I love and I read and they post their cards and I might have a couple more guys, but every bet they make, they're doubling up that wager to get the placings. I don't care about the placings. I'm not playing to have like a stack to bet whatever shitty tournament is next week. Like this is a long range. I'm going to win. When I win my outrights, I'm going to cash. And when you get cold, well, you know, you're like a squirrel in winter. Hopefully you've hibernated some nuts from when you were hot.
Cause I got hot at the beginning of the year and then I got ice freaking cold. Maybe one of my coldest runs ever. And then I got fucking hot. Yeah. You're hot. You're hot again now, you know, and I just missed one and, and yeah, I don't know the only thing I, yeah. So, so, you know, and I kind of expect to get cold again, but it's so much more fun to win a maid, to win the majors. And I put it out there. Like when I say I'm happy to lose a little more money on majors, I don't mean that like realistically, but yeah,
It's major championship golf. Like to me, it's like the Super Bowl. It's like, Mark, like, I don't know. Just do it. I just like, I like it too much to not over, to not over invest. I don't care. And when I don't make a bet under 25 to one, I got a lot of money to play with. So with that being said, my numbers, Terrell Hatton, 45 to one, Tommy Fleetwood, 51 to one,
Patrick Reed, 45 to one. Patrick Cantley, four, 39 to one. It's a great number on Cantley. Ricky Fowler, 80. And I have a Christmas future on Neiman at 125. And then on top of that, I still feel like in terms of my budget, there's moves for me, be it, be it burger in the sixties or that Paul Casey at 50. I don't know.
I got to figure something out, but that's, that's what I'm doing. I'm trying to find a first, first time major winner. Maybe that's like really cocky and dumb of me, but that's what I'm going to be doing. Okay. I've got speed at 20 Xander can't lay or Hatton.
Will be my next guy. I haven't decided yet. And then I've read at 46 Casey at 50 and cam Smith at 70. That's it. That's all I'm doing. Especially if that second man and ends up being Xander and I have two guys at 20. That's all I'm doing. I'm kind of leaning towards Cantley at this moment though. Jeff Feinberg. Oh, I have one more thing. Herbert. I can, I could just do two minutes on Herbert. Buddy.
Can we do two? Well, I know, I know. It'll only be two minutes. No, no, no. It'll be only be two minutes. You've been incredibly generous with your time and I have another show after this in like 10 minutes anyway, but I just wanted to say, this isn't even like a football take. I just wanted to say the joy that you get out of Herbert, like,
So I've been going through the loop right now with like the NBA trade stuff and like the Dame Lillard to the Knicks and the Chris Paul potentially to the Knicks and all this stuff. And like, you know that feeling, Jeff, and I wanted to talk about it with you because I know you have it with Herbert. I have it with RJ Barrett where it's just like,
I want this guy to be in my life for the next 15 years. Like this, this is going to be my guy for the next 15 years of my life. Like, I don't want to, I don't want to have to think about anyone else. Like, I don't want to, like, I don't want to hear him floated in trade rumors. I don't want to hear anyone like, this is my guy. And like a lot of sports fans, uh,
don't have that guy. I know as a Knicks fan, I didn't have that guy for a really long time. And maybe RJ Barrett isn't that guy yet. Maybe I'm getting a little bit over my skis here, but, and I know you can relate to that as well. Not having that, I guess you could say Philip Rivers, but I'm talking about a cornerstone guy that you can count on for the next 15 years. Isn't it the best feeling in sports? I think it's the best feeling in sports.
Yeah, it's head to pillow. It's incredible. And I know that I was always okay going to the foxhole with Phillip. Maybe the ceiling wasn't as high to be included in the conversations and what you're meaning. So I understand totally get that. And I don't want to have that conversation. But as it pertains to Herbert, I don't know if you watched my NFL show with Pat and Tim last year. I made a comment that I took so much heat for.
And that was after like the team that wins the Super Bowl and loses the Super Bowl. And arguably – and give me a couple more. Like the Bills. The Bills and the Browns. You can't convince me that the Chargers didn't have like a top five season in the league from like –
Sort of like where you thought we were a year ago to where we are today and what you believe might be capable. Because a year ago, even having the draft pick already in on the roster, I don't know. It was like, will this work out? Will it won't work out? There was so much uncertainty. And now like the skies are clear, like the certainty is there. And I am so excited to do it. I got this chip in a chair now.
And I, you know, it's a whole conversation for another time. I don't even feel like he's, he's got to do it again. But in many ways, I don't even feel like he's being given his proper due this off season in terms of what he actually did accomplish. The fantasy guys are a little bit lower on him than I would have expected. They're like, he doesn't run enough.
Yeah. And I get that. Like they, I guess I get that the fantasy things, it's own, it's a different, yeah. It's own animal. And, and, you know, and Jalen her, they're like, no, I'd rather have hurts. Like, so just in that alone, you have to know where, you know, their argument is. And I get that. That's a fun conversation to have. And we can have it in the future about like, can't really sleep on quarterbacks. You can't stream quarterbacks because the drop-off is kind of big. If you don't have like one of those guys, um,
But yeah, I don't know, man. And I honestly, I'll say the same thing. I'm a Blue Jays fan and I feel the exact same way. Like my teams are the Blue Jays and the Chargers and with Vladdy Bichette and the money I know they'll spend on pitching and they already got a kid in Manoa. I like, yeah, I'm super jacked up about that. I just want to be able, I can't wait for them to come home.
I wish this was a video podcast so people could see the genuine joy in your face right now. Yeah, I get fired up. I'm excited. It's the best. I love to golf, and I got two little girls who every day is a joy. But if I could, after Sunday, like once this major ends Sunday, if I could click my heels together like Dorothy, Andy, and take me to week one, I would. I would. Jeff Feinberg, everybody. Jeff.
Tell everyone one more time where they can find you this week, my man. Yeah. So exciting week, open championship, lots of stuff. Obviously go find that show with Mayo. I did, uh,
this morning. Although if you just listen to this one, well, you go get past. Listen to both. Yeah. No, I just feel like I am. I went out of that and this is more of like a, where I actually am, where I have more finality with my decisions now than I did. I got you this morning. Um, but you probably want to hear the smart guy in, in Pat speak. Uh,
I'll be doing something tomorrow with my picks, some of which you have already heard, but a little piece with Rick Gaiman for Odds Checker and then Jeff Feinberg's show Wednesday and Friday. So always a busy week for a major. Last four rounds of a major for the year is what it is. Jeff, thanks one more time for joining me and I'm sure we'll talk again very soon, my man. Thanks again for coming on.
All the best. That's it for the show, guys. Remember to like, rate, and review on your way out and check back later today. I have another bonus episode dropping. It is a special DFS show with my man Nagel's Bagels. So check that out. That should be out sometime on Tuesday afternoon or evening. And until then, later.
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