The Olympics with Luke Walker
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Okay, Luke Walker's here, owner of Luke Sweated Out on Twitter, a very popular Twitter that has had quite the season this year. Luke was actually my first

guest on this podcast ever. First one, it was the match play at the end of March. Luke said yes to being on my podcast when I literally had 17 followers on Twitter. Since then, this podcast has grown a lot and you, Luke, have hit about what? Like nine more winners since then? So look how far we've come, man. Hey, look at us. Who would have thought?

Yeah, I'm glad to see that your followership has grown by about a thousand fold since those days. And it's all well-deserved, man. You're doing great work and cranking out a lot of content and, you know, work speaks for itself. People are tuning in and I love it.

I appreciate it, man. And like I alluded to, you are doing some pretty great work as well. Did you we can do a little 3M at the top, but I think it was both relatively disappointing for both of us. We had some guys in the mix and we didn't have Cameron Champ.

Yeah, I'm super ready to let last weekend of golf betting go. You know, I post picks for all the tours, and I had Lee Six in the LPGA, the major championship, and she had a five-stroke 54-hole lead that she coughed up and lost in a playoff. Had her 35-1. Dylan Wu, who I bet like every week in the Corn Furry Tour, at 100-1 every week, he comes in at like 40-1. I was like, yeah, screw that. He wins. And then, yeah, in the 3M, it was like –

it seemed like all my guys were hanging around and then they got to the back nine and just put balls in the water and three putted and, and,

Yeah, it was just ugly, man. I'm ready to let that one go. So this is a decent transition to the Olympics with all of these no-name players in the field. Since you are like the only person that I'm friends with that bats the European tour a lot and like the Corn Fairy tour a lot, are you like licking your chops a little bit this week because you actually know some of these guys? Or these guys are even too obscure for you?

Yeah, there's quite a few names that are too obscure even for me. And then there's quite a few that I'm like, hey, you know, I've bet this guy on the Euro Tour and I've kind of been like following him. And it's just interesting because...

just because I know, you know, it's a lot like majors, you know, in majors, I see all these guys that I just love on the European tour and, and, you know, all these random guys coming up from corn fairy, whatever. And I'm like, I love this guy's 250 to one, like let's, you know, five bucks, 10 bucks or whatever. And it, cause it's fun to bet it. Um, those guys have no chance most of the time. And, and I think that that's pretty true for most of the obscure names in this, uh,

uh, Olympic field is, you know, this is four, four days of stroke play. Like the cream will rise to the top. Eventually. I think you kind of mentioned that in your preview. Um,

you know there's some there's some really high quality at the top so these guys at the bottom while it's really fun and it's cool for them to be there representing their obscure countries and all that i don't know what real chance they have to win the event but i might throw you know five bucks ten bucks here on a couple guys i would agree with that sentiment i've i've basically locked into a few guys at the top and haven't really done too much dumpster diving at the bottom

Do you think that this matters in terms of measuring a golfer's career? Like, is this, is this meaningful to you? Like if say Rory Wentz, are you going to use in arguments later for Rory? Like, yeah. And he has an Olympic gold medal too.

I think it's a very much a thing that's going to be used like only if it's positive, right? Like if he wins, you include it like, Oh, Justin Rose has a gold medal. Like, you know, in addition to his whatever 20 something wins and his major and, you know, and a gold medal, but like, you'll never say, Oh, he never won a gold medal or he never won an Olympic medal. Like, no, you know, who really cares at the end of the day? Like, so I think it's a thing that you won't use it as a negative ever,

but if a guy wins it's really cool and i think for some of these guys the nationality the pride of their nationality you know will make it more important to them whether that makes it more important to us like yeah you know not really 60 man field weird course we've never seen most it's going to happen all of us are we're all sleeping you know so yeah at the end of the day i think it's pretty easy to forget like

And I think that these guys probably, a lot of them would be more happy to win a standard PGA Tour event because that's going to be more meaningful for their career. You know, guys who win a PGA Tour event and lock up two years of exemption and, you know, make tens of millions of dollars because of that time that they get to spend on tour. I think that they would trade that for a medal most of the time.

Here's where I've landed on it. If Xander wins, I think it's a really big deal. And if anyone else wins, it doesn't fucking matter. That's my take. That's what I've decided. Fair take. Yeah. Hey, I'm into it.

All right, man. Well, as you mentioned, this is kind of like a WGC event. There are a lot of good players in this field and there are some really bad players in this field as well. I'm going to say it once. You're welcome to say it as many times as you want on this podcast, but I'm going to say Kasuma Gusecki Country Club East Course once and then

attempt, hopefully not to have to say it for the rest of this podcast, but it's a par 71. It's measuring 7,447 yards, bank grass greens, Zoysia fairways. It's a Charles Allison design, which doesn't really matter because Tom Fazio totally redesigned it in 2016. But

What are you looking at here, Luke? And it's okay to say absolutely nothing because we don't have a ton on this course. Yeah. So I actually, I really tried to dig in as hard as I could to the course, because I think that, you know, for handicapping an event that we don't have strokes, gain stats, or any sort of, you know, course history to go off of the only thing that we can

do that we can logically like you know tangibly point to something rather than just throwing darts is is digging into the course as much as possible and so like I went on you know Wikipedia and I was like okay Charles Allison who the hell's that you know I don't I don't know who that is and so I click on his um his Wikipedia page and you know one of the first things I see is that he he worked with Harry Colt

John Morrison and Alistair McKenzie. And so obviously there's a name there that is, yeah, exactly. Augusta. And so this course was built or designed in 1930 and,

those four guys, they, they started a company together, a design company in 1928. So my first thought is, Hey, this guy probably designs golf courses like McKenzie, maybe, hopefully, I don't know. He probably got some of his ideas and his, and his, uh, you know, themes and, and all that from, from them. And so obviously the first thought is, uh,

is to go to Augusta. And so I think that that's the kind of main comp that has been made. It might be a little lazy, but in doing some of the like the flyovers and stuff, that's the visual that I get as well. You know, I mean, even down to like the square tee boxes and just kind of it's very open, it seems. And, you know, the fairways are very wide, very little rough than immediate trees and that kind of stuff. And then obviously the Fazio redesign, which

probably was pretty significant, it sounds like. And so I started thinking about, okay, what do we know about Fazio? What's the main course that we've seen that's a true Fazio design rather than a redesign? And that was Shadow Creek. And then the whole thing about Shadow Creek was Steve Wynn brought him in to build Augusta National in the desert, right? So it comes back to Augusta again for me. And then looking at it again, you know, and looking at Fazio designs and redesigns, a lot of them are these Carolina courses. So I think that

All of these kinds of courses, what they have in common is that, that Carolina feel the tree line, very classical, big greens, undulating greens. And so I think that that's kind of where, where I went as far as like, what is this similar to design wise is some of those, you know, Augusta national Carolina style courses, the shadow Creek, that kind of thing. And then just based on where it is in the world, you know, I looked at some of the Kuala Lumpurs and Shishans and, and,

nine bridges and that kind of stuff so that was kind of where i i started and then i actually did a pretty like deep dive into um let's hear it so so i went on the bushnell app okay so i don't know if people use this or not but bushnell has their like range finder with the gps in it and you can hook it up you can find any course in the world on this thing and you can look at

You know, you can drag a little cursor and see how far everything is. And so it's like I started going through hole by hole. And the thing that I started noticing a lot was that at about 275 yards, real open, real big, nice landing zone. Once you get between like 200 and 275 and 300, things get real tight and there's bunkers right there.

So I focused a lot. I didn't focus on driving distance at all. I don't, I don't care about driving distance because I think that it's neutralized almost, almost every hole you can't hit the ball 300 yards or you're, you have to hit it, you know, on a string 300 yards. If you're, if you're trying to hit 300 yards, if you're hitting two 75, you're,

You're going to be in the biggest part of the fairway. You're going to have the ability to be on the left or the right side, whichever side you want to come into the green at, and you're going to be short of the bunkers and all the trouble. So that was kind of, kind of where I started figuring this course out. So then it, you know, if you hit that 275 on a lot of these holes, what you're going to be left with is a lot of wedges. So I think that you, you talked about that in your preview that it's, you know, focusing heavily on wedge game. The other thing is there's the long par fives.

a couple of them are not going to be reachable. So you're going to be, you know, drive, lay up wedge. Then the length is all in the par, par threes. It seems like really, really long par threes. And I don't think that they're like elevated greens where you're coming down. I think they're truly long par threes. So yeah,

That was kind of my breakdown of the course. Luke, you came with ammo today, dude. I did, man. I've been waiting to be invited back on the podcast. I'm not going to disappoint. Well, I'm with you 100%. I think as the day has gone on, the comp that I have settled on the most is the November Masters.

because I think that from what I've heard that Japan gets a lot of rain over this time of year, it's been a hot and humid summer and the course is not super firm and fast. It's,

it's playing kind of wet. And I think back to that November masters where it, it wasn't a true Augusta. Um, it wasn't firm and fast whatsoever. I think DJ one at like 16 under the scoring average was they broke scoring average records and all that stuff. So that was kind of every record. Yeah. That was kind of where I landed this week, like a kind of an amalgamation of shadow Creek, uh,

a November masters quail hollow, an easier version of quail hollow, not the way that they had it for the PGA championship, but even easier than their regular Wells Fargo event. And then I liked Sherwood as well, um, where, which is just another bent grass course in California. It's a Nicholas design, but, um, it has kind of big undulating sloping greens and a lot of scorable holes. So I'm with you. I kind of,

That's kind of where I'm at, and I feel pretty good about my handicap of this week with the limited knowledge that we have at our fingertips. But let's dive into the odds, man. You ready to go? Let's do it. Okay, so 20 and below, all of these odds, Luke, are courtesy of BetUS, but feel free to throw out any other numbers that you've gotten on Guy's Bet.

I would encourage everyone to shop around because it does kind of vary. And I'm sure there are a lot of people out there that made some moves before the withdrawals of Rom and Bryson. I was not one of those guys. So we're just going to talk about these numbers that we have here in front of us. Colin Morikawa, your guy is seven to one, a very deserving favorite.

Absolutely. Zander's 9-1. Justin Thomas is 10-1. Rory, I'm seeing at 12. I'm also seeing Hideki at 12. Hovland at 14. Casey at 16. And Reed at 18. Let's stop there. Those are the guys below 20. Are you digging into this range at all, Luke?

I think that, you know, normally this wouldn't be a range that I'm super interested in, but I think you kind of have to, um, it's so top heavy that, you know, all logic points to one of these guys coming through and, and all the things I just talked about, about, you know, if you can hit a two 75 in the fairway and then have a nice iron or low iron or wedge that all points to our boy, Colin Morikawa. I mean, it's like you said, very deserving favorite. I think that this course almost seems like it was just set up perfectly for him. So, um,

if that's the way you want to go, you know, all power to you, go for it. That's just a little, I just don't want to, I just don't want to. Yeah. But you know, some of these guys, I think, you know, a decade, 12 makes sense. Victor rates out perfectly in my model. I think he's, he's number one, just about any way that I weighed it. And even, you know, Justin Thomas, if you've got, if you've got a lot of wedges in your hand, Justin Thomas, it should be in play Rory.

you know, should be in play. All these guys under 20 to one that you named, I think are,

are worthy of the number that they are based on the limited number of elite guys that are in the field. So I think that it's, it's worth a look at some of these guys. I personally have fired on one in under 20 so far, and that's Paul Casey. Oh man. I was not expecting that. I was expecting, I was going to guess that you were maybe considering another Morikawa single bullet week. Yeah.

I did briefly consider it, but I just, I want to have a little bit of fun with it, you know, have a few guys. And I think, you know, when I, when I ran the model,

Casey, you know, just like every week, if you're looking at the ball striking statistics, he's going to rate out super well. If you're looking at the putting statistics, he's going to rate out super average. And so, you know, for my model, what I was looking at pretty heavily was the plus 200 proximity. I think I did 20 last 24 rounds, you know, he's second in the one 25 to one 50, where I think most of your shots on par fours are going to come from. He rated out third in that, that timeframe. And,

And then, you know, strokes game approach. He was second birdies are better. He was seventh, just really rated out well. And then some of the comp courses, the Wells Fargo's of the world. He's been really good. He had some really good finishes at the CJ cup, you know, and he's just his form this season is just spectacular. He's not winning PGA events. He had a Euro win. He's had really good finishes at the master's.

I think that I got him at 16. I can't remember what you said he was, but I think that's a fair, fair number in this field. So I went with Paul Casey.

Interesting. Okay. I have nothing bad to say about Paul Casey. I really like Paul Casey. I think he's going to win a major in his mid forties. I bet him at every single major this year. He's an unbelievable ball striker and those guys always draw me in. He rates out incredibly well for me as well as he does every week. I haven't made a move here yet, man. And I was kind of ready to go with Reed on like my first thought. I thought, okay,

People are going to overrate this thing with the time difference and stuff like that. And he's going to be, he's going to be the guy that no one's talking about and everyone's counting him out. And then I thought about it more like he's getting there on Wednesday. Apparently he's not even going to get to play a practice round and

I feel like every time I try and get cued and factor fatigue, I always get it wrong, which is why I was initially leaning his way. I feel like it matters way less than people think it does in general in a vacuum. But at the same time, I feel like this situation, it's kind of a big ass for him, man. He's not going to have his regular caddy either. It's going to be this guy, Kevin Kirk, who is his coach.

All these guys are like, I've been tracking what Xander's up to, and all these guys have been grinding on this course for multiple days, and Reid is just totally coming in at the 11th hour. Maybe that frees him up. Who knows? He's probably on the sharper side because not a lot of people are talking about him, but it feels like a big ass for me. So maybe Hovland for me, but I still like, I'm gun shy on all of these guys. We don't have to talk about all of them, but I have a reason why

why I can't get there on every single one of these guys. So I think there's a couple of things about Reed in my model. He rates out perfectly, you know, driving distance is not going to be super important. The short game and putting is going to be really good on the undulating greens. We've seen when a master's as far as the fatigue factor is,

Patrick Reed plays as much as anybody on tour. You know, he's not Sung J.M. quite, but I mean, as far as the elites go, he plays all the time. He likes to travel over to Europe and play European tour events. So he's not, you know, new to playing a lot and traveling a lot. And, you know, I don't know if not knowing the course that well matters that much, you know, or being fatigued matters that much. You know, sometimes...

That kind of works in your favor. I don't know if you've ever played too many hungover rounds of golf, but sometimes you play your best golf and you're hungover and kind of feel a little sick, you know, just kind of, kind of loose and stuff. And I could see that with Reed. Um,

one of the narratives that all week is just getting played up a ton in particular to, to, you know, Korean golfers is, is the motivation factor. And I think Reed is, is very highly motivated. For one, he got in because Bryson's out. So that's, that's, I think something that he would, he wants to show up and be like, yeah, I, I deserve to be here to begin with. You know, he's the captain America. He's, he's always trying to represent in Ryder cups and president's cups and,

And the Olympics, I think, would be super important to Reed. I think that what we talked about earlier, like, does it matter? Does it change your perception on a guy? I think Reed, to himself, winning a gold medal would be a huge deal.

I agree with that. I agree with that completely. I think there are, listen, I think that, I think that everybody that's playing here winning a gold medal would be a huge deal to them. Like Xander's whole half side on his mom's side is from Japan. Like this is, he's wanted to go to this event for his entire life. I think it, I think it matters to all of these guys, even the Rory quote, where I talked about this a little bit in my, in my Sunday show, but I was like,

You caught a guy like five minutes after he just finished up finishing like 40th at the British Open. It was like extremely disappointing to him. That's the biggest tournament of the year for him. Like, of course, he's going to be a little bit dejected. I think we sometimes read into these quotes a little bit too much. No one played Morikawa at the Open because he had one quote about the way his irons felt during the turf. Like, dude.

do I think Rory does care, man? I don't see, I think, I guess my point is, is the motivation factor. And I've talked about this a ton with the Korean players already, but I think that all of these guys, maybe it's not military service on the line, but everybody who's here wants to win. 100%. Yeah. They wouldn't show up. It's a lot of hurdles and it's a crazy travel and just like,

I don't know what their lodging situation is like. It's probably not as nice as it normally is. Yeah, I was going to say that. I'm really curious. So did you know that this course is like a trek from the Olympic Village? Not close at all, yeah. It's like 35 miles away from where all these guys are staying. I don't think this is... And they're having to deal with a lot of quarantine stuff, I'm sure, and a lot of regulations in the Olympic Village, which...

Again, isn't even close to this course whatsoever. So like the guys that are here, they're there for a reason. I don't think it is a fun. I don't think it's like going to play the Sony Open where they're in Hawaii and loving it. Yeah, I think it's right. So wait, so do you have details though on where they're actually staying?

No, I just know that it's a huge track from, uh, I know that it's just far from the Olympic village and like all of the other events are kind of centrally located in Tokyo. And this is like far off in a suburb. That's the extent of my knowledge. Yeah. So that, that makes sense. So, yeah, I think, you know, point is, is they wouldn't be there if they weren't motivated. So going back to, you know, the re discussion for me right now,

I got, I pulled on Paul Casey and it's between Victor and Reed. Obviously the Reed number is better, but I think those two guys are the only other ones under 20 I'd be considering.

I'm with you. Hovland is the guy that I keep eyeing. I don't know why I have such a hard time trusting Hovland and taking the plunge. Like I, I, I rarely ever bet this guy and I always end up like actively fading him at the majors. He is unbelievably talented and I like rooting for him too. But at the same time, like he still hasn't done anything yet and he's gotten anointed very, very quickly. I mean, he's won the Mayakoba and the Puerto Rico open. He's never finished top 10 in a major in his life.

Yeah. And he won a very weak field European tour event after he had that eye issue at the U S open. Like, and yeah, I'm with you. And based on what I think the course is going to be like, I think his, his biggest strength is neutralized, you know, with not being able to just bomb driver off the tee, you know, iron play is obviously spectacular. So that's going to be a big advantage for him, but I don't know how fast the greens are going to be, but if I think fast undulating gigantic greens, I,

That is not Victor Hovland territory for me. So right now it's definitely a lean towards Reed.

better number. But man, Hovland is just a stud. So I don't know stuff. Interesting. Yeah. I'll give you one quick deep cut on Hovland and then I want to move on to the, to the next range, but he did play his college golf at Carsten Creek, which is a Tom Fazio bent grass course with large undulating greens. I played that course in September. It does feel very similar to Kasuma Gusecki. Unfortunately, Austin Eckrod isn't in the field this week. I'd probably like him a

but yeah, this is a good course for him. 12th at shadow Creek, third at quail hollow. We'll see. Let's get into some of the, uh, some of the other guys. So 20 through 50, I'm just going to list off a bunch of these guys for you, Luke. And you tell me who interests you at the end, but, uh,

All these guys are somewhere in the 20s, like Shane Lowry, Cameron Smith, Joaquin Neiman, Abraham Anser, Corey Connors, Mark Leishman, Tommy Fleetwood, Sung Jae-M. Now we get a little bit more into the 30s with Bazayden Howd and Norrin and Higo. And I guess we can stop there before we get into maybe some long shots at the end. Perfect. Yeah, one that is the other one that I fired. So I've made two bets. One was Paul Casey and one is Cameron Smith.

Kind of liked Cameron Smith, just like feel wise, just thinking like, you know, somebody who probably is going to be mid priced, who is, is better than kind of the general public probably thinks he is. And,

And just seems like he could play well at this course was Cam Smith. When I ran the numbers, I think he came out fourth in my model, you know, basically solid in every aspect of, of, you know, what I was looking at is, you know, putting really well as short game is fantastic. Second at the November masters and top, like top five at the regular masters. So, I mean, either way that, that Augusta plays, I think he's got two fits on either side of the,

I think he went like fifth, second, fifth, if I'm not mistaken at the master. So any way that Augusta plays, he plays it well. It seems like he is, he's the perfect fit and he's just kind of got this, this swagger about him. He's got the mullet factor working for him. He's just playing really good golf all year long.

another Allison McKenzie design, if I'm not mistaken, is Royal Melbourne. And he's obviously Australian and probably he's played there a ton. So Cameron Smith makes a ton of sense to me. I got him at 20. I thought that was a really good number considering, you know, it just kind of drops off a clip after, after the likes of him and the Neiman's and Connors and that of the world. And so being, you know, same price as Sung Jae and Joaquin Neiman, of

Corey Connors answer. I think that Smith is very clearly the best player of those five. So that's where I went. Interesting. Yeah. He also finished 11th at shadow Creek fourth at Sherwood as well. So he is one of the guys that I am. I'm kind of deciding, but I've only made two bets as well. Luke, the one guy that I did bet, or I'll start with the first guy, but I like Shane Lowry, man. I think he makes a lot of sense here. He just keeps showing up and he's,

I don't think that the open win at Portrush was like an anomalous win. Like he's a really good player. I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he won another major already this season. He's 21st at the masters, fourth at the PGA, eighth at the players, 12th at the British most recently and six at Memorial. So still a lot of really good finishes and really good fields. He's won at Firestone before as well. People like that comp and the irons have just been pretty electric. He gained a,

over 1.3 strokes on approach and every measured start since March. So I went with Lowry. I got him at 22 to one. And then the other bet that I've made Luke, and this is so like off brand for me, I absolutely never bet this guy ever. And it's not going to be who you think it is.

I I'm telling you right now, this is a player that I like actively chirp and call overrated. I could not tell you the last time I bet this dude, but,

I think Abe Anser is going to win the gold medal. I really do. Wait, where were you? Where were you going? Connors? I was, I was praying that you were going to say Bazaydenhout and then I wanted to just dive in on, on. Oh, we can dive in on Bazaydenhout. The problem is I bet Bazaydenhout almost every week. I love Bazaydenhout. Yeah. I couldn't remember if you were, if you were on him or if you're a Bazaydenhout guy or not, but yeah. Answer. Oh, I don't know, man.

I'm just, I kind of the same with you. I like, I'm just a never answer guy. Never. I don't think that he's, I don't know. Can I make the case? Yeah, go for it. Okay. So he's called this the fifth major, according to Ben, according to Ben Coley's article. Okay. He plays better overseas than in the U S that's,

We know that he's won the Australian open really good into president's cup. As you alluded to an Alistair McKenzie design, he dominated on that. He contended at the November masters second at quail hollow. Awesome on bent grass. He's hitting the ball. Great.

I just feel like this is a good spot for him. And he's not getting the love that he gets at the Travelers and the Valspar and the Heritage. No one's talking about him. And Bipkoli's the only guy I've seen pick him. I think you play Abe on the weeks where he's not getting that steam. And I don't know, man. I know there are a lot more bodies in those fields, but

like the guys 25 to one at the travelers in the Valspar. I don't think that this is that absurd of a number for him, given the context and what everyone else's number is. He's really got to beat 15 guys. And this just feels like a spot that makes a lot of sense for him. I could be off base by that. It was more of a feel thing where I was like, wow, I like, like Abe answer for the first time ever.

Yeah. I mean, if it really is kind of a distance off the tee is neutralized event. Like I think it is, you know, he's probably going to be hitting the two 75 in the fairway and giving himself chances a lot. So that makes sense, you know, in my model and I don't know, I try not to get married to models because I think that that's a dangerous way to, to handicap golf. There's, there's so much more to it, but you know, in the, in the plus 200 proximity 38th in this field, um,

which actually a bunch of these guys aren't even, don't even have, you know, recorded rounds on fantasy national 45th and that one 25 to one 50 range. So that's not great. Um, 75 to a hundred is 29th. So it's like in the proximity distances, it doesn't show that he should be good, but in just about everything else, you know, birdies, uh, bent grass putting, you know, just putting recent. I looked at, um, fairways gained. He's third in the field. So, um,

Yeah, I think that's one that is polarizing. I'm not going to be on Abe. It's an interesting one. I hate it.

But you're right. The comp, the comp courses, he's been really good. Let me see what, how has he done in like some of these Asian type events? Cause I ran a little model just taking in like those three kind of Asian and Kuala Lumpur and all those ones. Yeah. I don't know. I didn't look at that to the middle of the pack. So, I mean, he's, he's been average. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

It's not a bad number. It's not a bad number. Like you said. I don't think so. Compared to real PGA events with full fields, sometimes he comes in at that number. And just mushed to death in those too. Just like mushed to death as the 25% on DraftKings and everyone doesn't want to miss out on the win. And it's like, why not bet him here instead? I see a bronze medal coming for Avancer.

Listen, yeah, maybe you're right. Maybe that's the better way to play him. I haven't even looked at the metal odds. It's just like top three, I guess. I don't think I have them. I don't have any access to that. It's just gold. That's all I've got access to. Okay, well, you want to do Bez? You want to do your Bez case? Yeah, I do. I would love to do the Bez case. I wasn't even really thinking about him.

you know, before the week I, I really love Christian Zayden Hote. I think his dominance on the European tour is, is awesome. I'm just like the way that I play golf myself, like an actual golfer is, is I'm not very long. I'm not super like dialed with my irons, but my, my short game is really good. You know, I can get up and down from just about anywhere. I putt really well and that's what saves me.

as a golfer and, and Seabed is that guy. Like he is not long, he's not pounding greens. He's not sticking at the five feet all day, but he he'll get up and down from anywhere in the world and he will put the absolute lights out. Um, and so I was, you know, that's just kind of who he is. I wasn't expecting him to pop up in my model a ton and I ran and he comes out third.

And, you know, so obviously the, the putting stats, he's, he's really high in unreal with his wedges. He's really good with his wedges. The one 25 to 50, one 57th, um, third from 75 to a hundred, you know, he hits fairways. He said, you know, 14 from a hundred to one 25. There was not a, a stat that I put in my model and I put in like five,

Shit, 11 stats. A bunch of them I have super low just so I could see it visually where they are, but not have it factor too much into it. But in the 11 stats that I was looking at, he is inside the top 25 in every single one. He's the only guy in the field who is top 25 in every single stat. Even Morikawa is 32nd in proximity outside 200. Even Hovland is 38th in three-put avoidance. So there wasn't a red box situation.

when you go across the line on Christian Buzaydenhote. Um, and so, you know, if distance doesn't matter, perfect. If, if big, you know, tough greens are really important and not three putting is important and being able to get up from kind of tough, you know, these, these greens have a lot of elevation kind of runoffs into bunkers. If that's all important, Christian Buzaydenhote is gonna, is gonna kill it. And I actually kind of was hoping for a better number. He's, he's 33 in my book. I don't know what you've got. Um,

33, 35. Yeah. Yeah. The only off, off putting thing is that the number is a little bit lower than I'd like, but Christian Zeta wins a bunch of golf turns. That's one thing that he really does. Um, so I'm, I'm all in on CBez.

Interesting. Okay. Yeah. There were some things that I really liked too. He's like the, I think he's number one putter in this field. He's fourth and short game seventh and three putt avoidance fourth and sand saves. He's awesome. But that's one thing we didn't talk about a ton, but this course does look like it has a ton of bunkers and he's an excellent wedge player as well. I, my, I mean, it's tricky because it's like,

When you think of a soft golf course like this, I think of Rory, maybe even Corey Connors to like a lesser degree where it's like, there's probably a universe out here where like Corey Connors just has 80 birdie putts this week.

But at the same time, yeah. And makes 10 of them. Exactly. But you, I think of like, I think of all of Rory's wins at like congressional and all of those soft golf courses where the carry distance and the ball just plops and then you stick your wedge and it just plops JT too, as well plays really well at some of those golf courses.

But you look at some of the guys that were up there at the top of the leaderboard at the November Masters, and it's guys like Sung Jae, who we haven't really talked about a ton yet, but...

It's guys like Cameron Smith as well. And it's, it's a kind of a Dylan Fratelli as well, who is like really, really bad ball striker and has an unbelievable short game sometimes. So it really is hard to kind of decipher what player profile you want to go with here. I feel like you could, a lot of guys could work depending on how you want to play the narrative out.

Yep. I totally agree with that. Yeah. So I'm just kind of banking on, on what my analysis of the course is and trying to focus on the guys that fit that. And so, yeah, CBez is the guy for me in that range. And I don't really know if I've got anybody else in this range. What do you like? Do you have any compelling cases for anybody else?

So the two moves that I've made are Lowry and answer. And, and I, in this range, I'm deciding between, I'm going to add either like Cam Smith, Connors or Neiman. I,

The thing with Neiman is, and it's similar to Hovland where I just have such a hard time trusting him. I know he's so talented and I get it, but he still hasn't done anything. And zero major top tens in his career. But at the same time, if we're purely just kind of modeling out if this is a course fit for Joaquin Neiman, I think this is a fantastic fit for Neiman. He's awesome on bank grass.

It's his best surface by like a mile. His only win came on bat, and he gained like nine strokes putting that week at the Greenbrier. Sixth at Shadow Creek, 17th at Sherwood, 18th at Quail Hollow. He's been really good on these tree-lined classical golf courses. He's a much better putter than a lot of these young guys, too. I place him and Cam Smith and Corey Connors together.

all in the same bucket right now where it's like i like all them i think they're all gonna play well like i mentioned with connor's like some of the ball striking stuff i found on connor's like it's pretty nuts like you kind of have to start taking the dude a little bit seriously considering he's actually finishing top 15 in majors now which is like a lot better than a lot of these guys like 10th and 8th at the masters and 15th at the british open so i

I just like it's between those three guys and I haven't been able to make a move. Leishman's interesting too. I mean, but it's just I

I don't know. So I think, I think with this range, you know, and kind of going to what, what you said about like what kind of player profile is going to fit this course. I think a lot of it is going to come down to, is it going to play easier or hard? Yeah. Obviously we don't know that. Like it's, it's impossible to say there's a case I think for both, you know, based on if they have the greens lightning fast, if,

you know, there's the fairways are running, you know, but it doesn't sound like that's what it's going to be. It sounds like it's going to be softer, which leads me to believe it'll be more of like a scoring fest. And I think that walking team is really good in birdie fest. You know, that's why I was on him at the rocket mortgages. Like one of the things I looked at was birdie or better percentage in birdie fest in low scoring conditions. You know, I think that's where he thrives is when he can,

just bomb away, gouge, make some putts on hopefully bent grass greens. I think that's where he thrives. And Corey Connors, I think we're starting to see him turn into this player where he's really good at super difficult tests. And it makes sense because off the tee, he's going to hit it straight. He's going to be in the fairway and he's going to hit his irons really close. So he's never going to get himself into huge trouble where big numbers come into play.

he's going to two-putt a lot and make a lot of pars. And when pars a good score, I think that Corey Connors is a guy. And that's why we've seen him pop at all these majors and some of these tougher tests. So I think that

That would be who betters this week is to decide and take a stand on. Is this going to be a birdie fest or is this going to be like pars good score most of the time? And and I lean towards more of a birdie fest. So if I were to be looking at either like a Neiman or Connors or, you know, just trying to make a decision, one guy or another, I'm going to take the guy who's who's comfortable going low.

So that, that would be my case out of those guys. But I think I've already made my stand on, on Smith at that range. And I'm just calling it there. Have we heard anything from the greenskeeper there? Because if I've learned any, yeah, if I've learned anything from the British open, it's like, listen to what that dude's fucking saying. That's actually, man, how important. Yeah.

people should be having. Yeah. I bet Baz and Cam Smith there thinking it was going to be hard. Right. That would have been perfect. I think that we need to figure out who it is and get a translator and figure out what the hell is going to, this course is going to play like, cause that probably would, uh, would open some doors for us as far as, you know, the avenue to the right guys for this course. I would probably lean birdie fast. I just, when I hear soft, uh,

I just think these guys are so good with their irons that anytime, like if you really think about what makes a PGA tour course hard for professional golfers, it's not really distance. It's firm and fast conditions. Always. It's always firm and fast conditions that make it hard. Yeah. And weather and wind and stuff like that, that make it hard for these guys. And as soon as I heard soft, I just,

I felt like it was going to be on the easier side, but who knows? I could be wrong. I spent so much time analyzing the open and it was not, it was not even close to what I thought was going to happen. Like not even, not even like not, not even on the planet of like how I expected it to play. So we'll see. Yeah, we will see. There's only one way to find out. All right, man. So,

Are there any bombs that you are betting? Yeah. So I think once you get past like probably Seabed's, I mean, even getting into like Guido and Higo, who I love. I know you love Higo. You know, and some of these guys, all of a sudden it drops off to like guys who I don't think really have much of a chance. Um,

One guy I looked at a little bit was Carlos Ortiz. I really tried to build a case. He's kind of, to me, a kind of guy who is really good when,

like hitting the center of the green or hitting the center of the fairway is important and he's got his driver working you got to marry those two together and get lucky that the driver's working that week i tried to make a case but man looking at his recent form it's just not good and and in the model he really didn't rate out that well so i'm probably going to pass there you know i want to go to the euro thomas's the detree and peters just because i like those guys but like

can they beat the likes of, you know, Morikawa and Xander and Thomas and, you know, even Casey and Reed? Like, I don't think so. They can't beat anybody. They can't even win these like terrible European tour events, you know? So it was tough. It got real slim pickings past that. But the first one that I was looking at,

And he might be a little popular, a little chalky, but Mito Pereira, 135, he's a winner. That's one thing I'll say about Mito is he won three times on the Corn Fairy Tour, got his automatic promotion.

I think he misses first cut by like one or two, you know, 30th and then back-to-back top sixes, I believe. I think fifth and sixth at Barbasol and 3M. And granted, those aren't the best fields, but like as far as depth, they're not too dissimilar from this field. So that's a guy who,

who I think is just playing really good golf. And if it's soft, he might be able to just throw some darts and, and, you know, get, get hot and make some birdies. Um, so one 25 on, on Mito. And then the other guy who rated out really good was, uh, Norlander one 50 stats wise, stats wise, he rates out phenomenal for me, but,

He also kind of sucks at goal. Yeah. There's that. There's always that with Henrik Norlander. Yeah. Yeah. It's like his final score is not good, but his stats are phenomenal. He's one of these kind of anomaly guys, but I don't know. It worked.

Yeah, I think Norlander, I think he could make some noise as his top 20 play. I'm going to use him in DraftKings a little bit if the ownership's not out of control. He gained 7.6 strokes on approach at the Barbasol in his last start. I know it's the Barbasol, but that's really good. He's been good off the tee, too. He's putting way better and really good with his wedges. So I think he can make some noise. I think Munoz can play well here. Tom,

Top 10 at Eastlake on Zoysia. That's the other thing we didn't talk about a ton, but these Zoysia fairways, they are, it's not a surface that guys are super familiar with. And the two courses that I'm familiar with that I know have Zoysia fairways are TPC Southwind and Eastlake, which immediately...

brought me to guys like Xander and JT, but Munoz has played well at Eastlake. He's top 10 at shadow Creek. He was 14th at the November masters. He's awesome on bent. It's his best surface. Um,

third at colonial and green briar on Ben and fourth at TPC deer run on Ben. All of his best performances are in tree line golf courses. So I think Munoz is going to play well. I don't think he's going to win at, at a hundred to one or whatever. I mean, he's shown that he struggled to put four rounds together, uh,

like in the John Deere. So I don't think he's going to win, but I think, I think he can make some noise this weekend. Maybe if you want to bet, bet him like to top five or whatever, I think Munoz will play well. Our first round leader, but it's going to be a thing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Shout out, shout out to our, shout out to our buddy, John PGA tout, who I played golf with this week. I know he will be on Munoz first round later. And I might tell him on that. That seems like a pretty, pretty decent play this week.

Yeah, that's what he does, man. He just fires crazy rounds on a Thursday. All right, man. Well, we didn't talk at all. So you're not getting, you're not into the Siwoo and Sungjae thing this week at all, huh?

man, I'm really torn. And yeah, I'm glad that you got, you went there. Cause I figured we'd talk about it at some point. Yeah. You know, Sung Jae, I love Sung Jae. I would give, you know, my, not my firstborn child. He's my second born though. I might give for Sung Jae to not have to go to military service. Like, you know, I just, I love Sung Jae. And it would just be heartbreaking to lose him from the PGA tour. And I really love Si Woo too. Um,

I just think that he's a really fun guy to watch and he can win golf tournaments. And it just sucks to see, you know, we've seen it a few times with these guys who they got to go do their military service and they're never the same. And it would really be heartbreaking to see that happen to these two. You know, we touched on the motivation factor before. Yes, obviously their motivation factor is bigger.

military service probably sucks. It's probably not a lot of fun and you don't get to play on the PGA tour and travel to like all the coolest golf courses in the world and make millions of dollars and play golf, which these guys seem to love. So certainly makes a lot of sense, but to win the gold medal, I just don't, you know, we're, we're betting with our real money here and I want to, I would be super happy for these guys if they avoided military service, if they got bronze and silver and,

I'd be so stoked, you know, but I just...

their prices actually see who see whose price is fair I think you know 50 to 1 for a guy who is a PGA Tour winner proven proven winner and kind of rates out pretty well for what we think the course should play like so actually see who I'll probably just get there on a very small bet just so that I have it just in case and some jail probably just bet a few bucks just in case but like I'm not gonna tout him you know that's not gonna be like guys who I'm not playing strokes gained

military service avoidance. I'm just... It's just a... I think you said it, and it's just a square play, and I think that you're right. Yeah. I warmed up to him a little bit when I thought about the November Masters a little bit more. I don't think he's going to bomb by any means. I think he's fine, but I just...

Take the whole military thing out of the picture. He just hasn't been playing good golf. He's had one top five since January. And he plays in a lot of bad events, Luke. A lot of weak field events that you would think that he should clean up in. And I know because I bet him all the time in those events at 30-1 or 20-1 at the Palmetto. And he barely makes a cut. And I just...

I'm not actively seeking him out in matchups. I don't think that he's going to step up to the first tee and pull like a Rory at Port Rush, where it's just the pressure is too immense. I think he's going to be ready to go. But I also don't think that, especially at the number and the guys that are kind of around him, I don't think that he's going to ultimately get there. Si Wu, you're right. I mean, Si Wu...

It's very hard to make a case ever against, against like not betting Siwoo because he wins and he's won the players and Siwoo ceiling is as good as like a lot of elite player ceiling. The only difference is that his floor is so low as well. Like the last time that we saw Siwoo, he was eight over at the John Deere and he walked off the course. Yeah.

Yeah, it's, it's tough to make a legitimate case other than the military thing for these guys. And, and I guess playing the other side of it is that they I think have been there for a long time, I would assume that they've if they are allowed to be like, getting practice rounds out there, they have been.

Growing up, they probably played on similar agronomy and just kind of a similar part of the world that might help them. So there's certainly some things that point to them. But I think that people are overplaying the motivation factor because everybody wants to win. They showed up because they want to win. You alluded to it in your preview, like,

no one's going to miss putts because it would mean that Siwoo gets to avoid military service. Like screw you. See, we were like, we're, we're playing for the same prize purses every week. Like you're one less good player. I got to play against. Like, I don't think, I don't think that people are going to mail it in. That's just absurd to think. Yeah. I'm with you. All right, man. Well, I think we covered everyone that I wanted to cover, man.

Oh, let me throw you a curveball. Have you seen the fashion? Have you seen the U.S.? The U.S. uniforms isn't the right word. It's what they're wearing. Have you seen the pictures? I'm not sure if I've seen what their game day gear is. I've seen pictures of them in their practice rounds and stuff. I don't know if that's the same.

Okay. Good point. Yeah, you're right. They probably have a different get up for every day, including the practice rounds. Right. And I've seen that, I don't know, I guess, yeah, I don't know if I've dug into it enough. I know that like, I mean, my club has a bunch of Adidas USA gear. And so I know I've seen, you know, more cow was like Adidas gear. I don't know if they all have like a specific brand that they're wearing or if they're wearing their normal brands. Like if, if Patrick is going to show up in like G4 or whatever, like,

I don't know. I kind of hope they have a country uniform. I know the Great Britain dude, Paul Casey, has got some wacky shirt with a bunch of geometrical things going on. Did you see the Fleetwood divisor he was wearing too? Oh, God, no. God.

I'm not a thousand percent convinced that Tommy Fleetwood is not an eight-year-old boy in a grown man's body because he dresses like an absolute child. I know you saw him at US Open. He's wearing a sweater. The only guy on the course on a sweater that's three sizes too big. What is that guy doing? My question with some of the Nike reps, are they just like, fuck it at this point? I think that Nike is trying...

I don't know what they're trying to do exactly. They're trying too hard at whatever it is because they're trying to do stuff that's different. They're trying to like do stuff that- Yes. That is abundantly clear. Yeah. So, I mean, they have those one shirts with like the zigzag line or like the bent lines. And I was reading that those are supposed to be like if you're looking at a golf course map,

you know like the the aerial view map that like that's the shape of a hole oh my god that's like what that's supposed to be and um they had the ones for tory pines that were supposed to be the bark of a tree like of a tory pine tree looks like a barcode yeah yeah so like they're clearly trying too hard but like they kind of are on like a cool it's kind of cool but it's also just

horrible to look at you can't they're ridiculous i feel like rory i feel like they try this stuff with rory and rory's like i am good on this yeah and then they're like give me the solid yeah and they're like and they're like i bet we can get tommy to wear this tommy will wear anything that guy will wear the goofiest shit i think i posted it like there was a shirt on there i was like that's the ugliest damn shirt i've ever seen like coming to a tommy fleetwood near you

They're like, they're like, he did, he did wear that shirt. They're like, they're like sitting in the Nike lab together. And one of the guys is like, how about I just like draw a bunch of squiggly lines on this? And the other guy's like, you sure? And the guy's like, yeah, Tommy will wear it. Are you kidding me? And he does. He wears it in every color. They make it in four colors. He wears it for,

four days in a row it's the worst man um so yeah that i mean we we completely digress but um okay wait one more thing give me your top three give me the give me the medals medals go to paul casey first place gold camp gold yes cameron smith will take home the silver siwu bronze

Okay. I like that a lot. Service with a third place bronze finish. I like that a lot. Okay. I think Abe answer is going to win the gold. Um, I'll even though this is, I would probably go Xander at, at, at silver, even though that is like kind of the worst case scenario for a guy like me. If he finishes this too, he would, can you imagine?

It's going to suck no matter what. But yeah, I mean, I think we didn't talk about him at all, but it's like perfect. Like if I was like, if I was building a perfect golf course for Xander Shoffley, like I would build this one, but yeah. He's clearly one of the best players ever. And I mean, of our era and doesn't win very much. Yes, that is true. He does not. So I, I,

I'll say no then, because I actually don't want that for him. I'll go with Lowry and then...

I'll give it to Siwoo too. I like Siwoo a little bit. Siwoo for the bronze, baby. Yeah, I like Siwoo a little bit here more than I like Sungjae. And I think with Siwoo, because the other thing is that Sungjae, it's not his last chance. He has the other chance in Paris. This is Siwoo's last chance. Yeah, absolutely. I'm into it. All right, buddy. Well, why don't you tell everybody where they can find you this week?

Yeah. You can find me at, at Luke sweated out. You know, I'm, I'm always there to interact with anybody who adds me and you can slide it into my DMS and I'll answer any questions you got. That's how I did it. That's how we make fun of people. And, and you know what we didn't mention, which is awesome is that this is going to be primetime golf in the U S I know I'm super psyched. I'm super sick. So when Wednesday in the U S will be Thursday in Japan, uh,

but it'll be prime time. And so I'm going to be tweeting like crazy. My wife's pissed. She's going to have to watch a golf at night. Like she's going to be so mad. Well, it could be perfect. Cause if you, does it work out where you're able to put the baby down right before it starts? Or does that kind of intersect a little bit? Cause I know like it's 54 for you West coast time. So it'll be perfect. He'll be, he'll be going to sleep. Um, yeah, the wife will be wanting to watch, uh,

you know, handmaid's tale or whatever. And I'm going to just have golf on my phone on the side and it's going to be perfect, man. I'm so stoked. All right, buddy. Well, I am very stoked as well. And as always, um, it was a pleasure talking to you, my friend, and I know that we will do it again soon. Luke, thanks so much for coming on my man. Thanks buddy. I, uh, your biggest fan and really happy to be on again. And yeah, I hope it's not the last time and I hope we have a successful betting and I'll see you on the flip side, bud.

That's it for the show, guys. I will be back on this podcast feed Sunday afternoon with an in-depth breakdown of TPC Southwind. Really excited for that one. Until then, enjoy the Olympics. See you next time.

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