Shriners with Steve Schirmer
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All right, we are back. We got a great show today with Steve Shermer, Twitterless Steve, of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, breaking down the Shriners Hospital for Children Open. Steve is an incredibly knowledgeable guy that I have wanted to have on the podcast for a while. Just a wealth of information and as into the numbers as I am. It's a podcast that...

could have gone two or three hours. We really just had to stop ourselves from going down too many rabbit holes, but I think you will enjoy this conversation. And if you like this podcast, I would encourage you also to check out Steve's podcast as well. I'm actually popping on theirs in the next couple of weeks too. So be sure to be on the lookout for that. I apologize that I've not done my Sunday show the past two weeks. I was at the Ryder Cup two weeks ago. And then last weekend, I

I flew to Chicago to play Chicago Golf Club with a college buddy, which I'm just going to take 10 minutes at the top here. And if you aren't into architecture at all, that's fine. You can fast forward. But I just, it was such a singular experience that I wanted to share a little bit of it. I think it's the greatest golf course that I've ever played in my entire life. And I've played some good ones.

Now that may be recency bias, but I've never had an experience where

where I've had to think so much during a round of golf. It's a CB McDonald design who is my favorite designer. He's done national, which previously held the spot of my favorite golf course. He's done the Creek, which I grew up playing and also holds a spot in my top 10 deep Dale piping Yale. The list goes on. He's, he's done time and he's a, he's a Scottish designer. His entire influence, uh, is from Scotland. Uh,

and how golf was originally conceived and what, how it was originally played in its most pure and original form. And, and,

you really feel that when you're on the course, there's no tricks or gimmicks. There's nothing fancy about the place at all. It's a beautiful old school Jarvis hunt clubhouse. The history there is unbelievable. The Walker room is great. I, I didn't take one picture because there's a really strict no phones policy, which I actually grew to love, um,

Because, you know, you're, it's such a pure experience. If you research it online, you're not going to find a lot of pictures, you're not going to find a lot written about the course. And

That's what's kind of so beautiful about the place. It's kind of like if you know you know vibe. And if you really, really appreciate architecture, it's the pinnacle. It's not on a body of water. It doesn't have any beautiful views. It's in the middle of a Chicago suburb. It's pretty, but that's not what it's about. That's not the essence of Chicago golf. The essence of it is the design.

And the reason why I put it ahead of national is the scale of the place. There's no trees. You can see the clubhouse from every single hole and it has the greatest and most unique green complexes that I think I've ever seen in my entire life. They're, they're so severe yet not gimmicky or unfair. Davis love said that,

Every architect needs to go study Chicago golf screens before they build any golf course. And he's right. They are, they're the best green complexes I've ever seen. The Redan hole is the best Redan I've ever played. The punch bowl is the best punch bowl I've ever played. I like their capo even more than I like nationals capo. Everything is just bigger. And these greens could have, I mean, 50 pin positions on them. And again,

I've never had to think more on a golf course. Nothing is simple. The margins are so slim there. It's really, really easy to miss a green with a 50 yard pitch shot. If you miss your spot, it'll roll right back down to your feet or over the bark. And it's, it's, it's able to maintain that without ever feeling unfair or

or too punishing or too severe. And there's 50 different ways that you can play every hole. Uh, there's so much strategy involved and so much creativity involved. I was hitting shots that I would never have dreamt of hitting on any other golf course. And

That's what makes links golf and Scottish golf the best. That is what makes that type of golf so special. It's the creativity aspect. You have to be,

totally present on that golf course, if that makes sense, um, with every shot. And it probably helped that I had such a knowledgeable host that has such a deep understanding for the architecture and the game and the history, which by the way, is a prerequisite for that place. They have 125 members, 125 members. And I,

They don't have any old caddies. All of the caddies are between 13 and 18 years old. And the reason for that is it's about the tradition. It's about passing it on to the next generation, which is why I think they like to keep such a low profile because they want to keep the purity of the place. And you feel that the second you get there, it's, it's the same course, right?

in 2021 than it was in 1893. And you just feel like you are playing golf the way that golf was intended to be played before TPC courses existed and target golf and trees and water hazards. It's a ground game. It's thought. It's creativity. It's controlling your ball flight. It's just pure.

And I'll cap it at there. I'll probably have Steve Hennessey or someone on to do a deeper dive on some of the architecture stuff that we love. And it can just be a separate episode because I know there are many people that could not care less. So I apologize for sneaking this in there at the beginning of the podcast, but I just wanted to talk about it a little bit. It was such a singular and cool experience for me. So I just wanted to share that. Okay, let's get to the show.

All right. Steve Shermer is here, Twitterless Steve of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Steve, how's it going, my friend? Thank you for joining me. It's going great. Thanks for having me on. We've kind of been circling each other for the last couple of months through mutual contacts, but no, I'm very happy and honored to be on your show tonight. I'm ready to talk about a decent tournament this week in the Shriners. Okay.

Okay, so let's get the Twitter thing out of the way first. Give me the philosophy behind it. All right, well... Because you might be the smartest person in the room. Well, so I don't even think I've told my co-hosts the full reason why. So...

It's two reasons. So there's a golf reason, just a philosophical reason. You know, the golf reasons, I mean, as a content creator, handicapper, I mean, there's so much information that goes into preparing for a tournament, breaking down a betting board. And it just got to a point where, you know, I just became just really deep into, you know, the golf gambling Twitter scene that just, there's just a lot of stuff flying around.

And it started to kind of muddle a little bit, you know, where I wanted to go with things, you know, started to kind of make like looking at the betting board, breaking it down a little bit more of a challenge. So, you know, that's one reason to kind of get off Twitter is you kind of just end up isolating yourself and divorcing yourself from a lot of takes. And it's not saying that like those takes are bad or wrong or anything, but you know, it just, it's too much sometimes. And sometimes we're just overloaded with information. We overthink things. And by getting off of Twitter and kind of getting out of that world, you

I kind of just got back to basics, just focus on golf courses, stats, like who guys are, like what they tend to do, like just keeping it simple. And then just the philosophical reason was, you know, I just, I didn't enjoy golf.

How I use Twitter, especially with sports, like it really became where I was big into the second screen viewing experience where, you know, I'd be watching a game. I'd have Twitter up like, you know, I'd be trying to see like, you know, what people are reacting to stuff or, you know, what people are saying about it instead of just experiencing on my own. And I didn't like that. I didn't like how I wasn't actually enjoying a game and just reacting to it.

So, you know, I decided to get off of February 2020 and that ended up being a good time because about a month later COVID hit and we had the ugliest presidential election ever. And I'm sure I haven't really missed much with anything with that. So yeah, it's, it's, it's something that I would encourage, especially people who like do this stuff and like digest a lot of golf information to just turn it off and

you know, get off it for a month. You know, maybe you might feel like you might miss it, but at the end of the day, there's a lot more positives out of it. I'm just, you know, just enjoying like a sporting event by yourself without having Twitter, without seeing what everybody's seeing. You know, you just, you don't need it. So that, that was the reason why behind it. And it's worked out pretty well. I've been pretty happy since. Yeah. I think

Listen, the only reason this podcast exists is because of Twitter. The only reason that I have been able to make a career out of this and get paid to do this is because of Twitter. But at the same time, I would even go as far to say you might see your bankroll or whatever increase if you got off it for a little bit of time. I think it becomes such an echo chamber sometimes and it's so easy to get...

I don't want to say influenced, but it's so easy to get caught up in what everyone else is thinking and the group situation and stuff. And so it is a slippery slope, 100%. And then you get the whole thing where people are just like, well, I mean, if he's betting him,

then I can't stand to, to lose on him. Like, and, and I don't want to miss out on this guy. If it's, if it's this guy that everyone's betting, like, I don't want to miss out on this guy. And then you have you sitting over here, just completely pure and innocent.

Or even the opposite is true where let's say, you know, you go through your process, you like a guy, but then you see like four random Twitter accounts say they like him too. And then all of a sudden, like this happens with my co-hosts all the time. Like we'll be talking about a guy Sunday and Monday who we like. And then he goes on Twitter and sees like three people who like him. He's like, Oh, I don't like him anymore. Why did that change? Like, it just means that you don't trust your process and gut. And like, you know, at the end of the day, whatever your process is, if you like a guy, you're going to like him.

You know, so what everybody else is betting him like these odds that we're betting guys that are 40, 50 to one anyways. So, you know, the odds are already low, but if you like a guy, you come up with a reason for it. It doesn't matter what guys are saying on Twitter for it. Just go with your gut. You know, it helps you with that. It helps you, like you said, avoid the echo chamber and, you know, it keeps you focused on the task at hand for sure.

Well said, sir. Well, speaking of process, let's dig right into it, my friend. The tournament this week is the Shriners Hospitals for Children's

open. It's a TPZ Summerland, which is a par 71 measuring 7,255 yards. It was designed in 1991 by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zeller. Water comes into play on four holes. The fairways are Bermuda grass and the rough is two inch Bermuda. 7,400 square foot greens on average, pretty large. They're

uh, bank grass as a service. And it's one of the easiest courses historically on tour, but I'll kick it to you first, Steve. What are you, what are you kind of looking for this week?

Well, I mean, I think with this golf course is, you know, just kind of look at the nitty gritty, just like what guys do there. So, you know, it's, even though it is about 7,200 yards, they're playing an elevation. This thing is pretty firm at this time of year. Balls are rolling out pretty good. Like, you know, I think the average driving distance last year from everybody was about 302, you know, that's a lot longer than everybody. So, you know, and I think that kind of has helped, you know, shrink the gap between like bombers and shoreheads. Like I, I think some people, you know,

you know, see this golf course as all while, you know, it's, it's pretty generous corridors. You can kind of bomb it out there, but when you're at elevation and the ball rolls out, it really helps a lot of shorter hitters do well there too. So, um, you know, guys are hitting a lot from the fairways, usually the fairway, the driving, excuse me, the driving actually percentage is usually about low seventies is one of the highest in PGA tour, you know, green regulation rates. The greens are huge here, you know, it's high 70. So just a lot of guys who are,

you know, hidden from the fairway, you know, they tend to be hidden a lot of approach between 100 and 150 yards. You know, there's not

as many longer approach odds as some of the other PGA Tour courses too. So yeah, I mean, and like you said, like this is definitely one of the easier golf courses. This is at the end of the day, a resort course, you know, they're trying to get as many rounds as possible of gamblers coming through Vegas. So, you know, it's pretty soft, receptive, bent grass greens. You know, there's not really a whole lot of tricks to these greens. So I think they're pretty flat overall. Like some of the pictures I saw, you know, they're definitely not as dramatically undulated as some of the other stuff that you've seen. So

Yeah, I mean, I think that's the reason why this thing kind of turns into a putting contest, a little bit of a crapshoot every year. Let me ask you a follow-up question to that. On these courses where it's a little bit easier, it's a little bit less resistant to scoring, and putting is higher, there's a higher importance on putting this week, I should say. Does that kind of lead you astray from...

picking some of the favorites and betting on some of the guys that are a little bit farther down the board, just because obviously as you do putting is like probably the most volatile statistic. And so anytime putting is more of a factor at a course, it's going to create a wider range of outcomes, which is obviously, again,

bared true at a place like TPC Summerlin. You've seen all types of players succeed here. You saw Martin Laird win last year and Kevin Nas won here twice and Bryson's won here and Cantlay's won here, Rod Pampling, Smiley Kaufman, Webb Simpson. So there's a ton of different player profiles clearly that can succeed here. Do you think when we get to some of these easier courses where it's more putting dependent, does it change your strategy at all?

Yeah, I mean, I think it means that you can probably try and target those a little down the board. But I think maybe what you want to try and do is maybe try and see like, you know, you can create like composite index of like how these guys do kind of these scoring, like, you know, tournaments like, you know, you can see like what they do it like the rocket mortgage or like the john deer or

Or, you know, the Byron Nelson, like all these birdie fests and kind of see like, okay, you know, these are types of, you know, courses where, you know, guys are used to going pretty low. They're hitting a lot of greens. You know, maybe you can kind of try and find a guy who tends to kind of raise his game there. So, but I've always, you know, I kind of wanted to ask this to you is, you know, I've struggled over the last couple of years trying to figure out like,

you know, when it turns into kind of these putting concepts or like, or more so than when it's like, it's kind of easy greens, a pot on, right. Yeah. Does that favor better putters, worse putters? Cause I think I can make an argument kind of both ways on that, you know, as far as like, oh, well, you know, it's a really hard green. It's really fast. There's a lot of undulation, maybe better putters will more adept at it. Or like, you know, maybe everybody's putting defensively that kind of love is a playing field. I don't know. I mean, as far as like, I, I,

Boston Cabernet, I've been kind of going back and forth like when you get those starts. So what do you think about that? Like when you get to this kind of greens where they are pretty easy to putt on. So like, you know, does that tend to favor better putters, worse putters, just make it more of a crapshoot? I don't know. What do you think? I think it depends. I think that like just kind of basing it off of my,

my own experience playing golf. We were talking about this a little bit off air. I went to Chicago golf last weekend and it played the purest greens that I've ever played in my entire life. They're rolling 13 on the stint meter and they're just perfect. They're not the type of greens that I play at my home course or some of the public courses that I play out in LA. And

To me, that favors better putters, right? If you're hitting your lines on those putts, like they're going in. They roll so completely true. And whereas when it's a course where it's a little bit easier to kind of putt on, I think that brings kind of a wider range of guys into play. I don't know if that was the best example either because we're kind of talking about...

are the greens specifically difficult? So I think it, I think it kind of depends. Like what's interesting to me is, um, a lot of good putters have fared really well here. And there are certain courses like last week was a course with the Sanderson farms where a lot of bad putters have coincidentally enough fared well there. And then you see a guy like Sam Burns, who's a really good putter lose two strokes putting and still win the tournament. Um,

I think it's random. I think putting is so random. And I think that once you start diving into putting too much, I think it's a little bit of a crapshoot. And to be honest with you, that's a very long-winded way of saying I haven't really been able to figure it out. Yeah, I don't think anyone's really been able to figure that out. It seems like I've gone back and forth on it. But I think for me, it comes down to more like

Like when I think of a guy, are you capable of getting like, cause they probably the winning scores would be what, like minus 20, 21, 22 under, it doesn't look like the weather is really going to be a big factor this week to keep scores low. Like when Cantlay won a couple of years ago, like, are you capable of actually getting to like that level? And I mean, sometimes it does come down to like, just can you hit enough putts to do it? So yeah, I mean, and just in my mind, I think like some of the guys I like a little bit, you know, early this week, um,

They tend to be a little better putters. You can kind of like reach that ceiling. So, you know, I mean, you can, you know, ball striking is really important to be consistent, but,

At the end of the day, like, you know, Boston kind of like it's just so far in order to get like the really super low scores. So I don't it'll be interesting to see. I mean, it probably is going to be a little bit of a crapshoot. But yeah, it's just it's an interesting question about like, I mean, because we always go back and forth about putting how important is how not important it is. But yeah, it's a tournament like this where it is, you know, pretty wide open. It can be definitely challenging. Okay.

Okay. I thought about it a little bit, just some more while you were talking. I have a way, I have a way better answer now. The, the way that I think more so about putting is I think I want to always, the way that I always try and do it is I always look for guys that are capable of getting hot with their putter, as you mentioned. So I think strokes game putting is, is,

There's so many ways to get to a certain result. Like somebody could rank 50th on tour and strokes game putting by being just a neutral putter every single week, or somebody could also rank 50th and strokes game putting by being

being a super volatile putter where one week he loses five and the next week he gains five and it, and it kind of goes back and forth. I think on these courses where it's a little bit easier putting, and it's a little bit easier scoring in general, there's a little bit more resistant or a little bit less resistance to scoring. I'm generally just looking for God. And obviously from an

if we're talking betting from an outright perspective as well, like I'm generally looking for guys that I don't really care about their bad weeks. I don't really care too much about volatility. I'm, I'm caring far more about their, their spike weeks. And it's tough to tell, like, you know, when we get to, when we get to a course where it's like, you know,

how difficult are these greens versus how easy are these greens? Like when I think of difficult greens, I think of Augusta national and it's like, how many bad putters have won at Augusta national Sergio, Adam Scott, Hideki most recently. And then we get to a course like this where it's like super easy greens. And it's like Kevin Nas winning all the time. Webb Simpson's winning Bryson. Who's one of the best putters in the world. Patrick Cantlay, who's one of the best putters in the world, you know? So it's so, it's,

hard to really say. I think it, I think it's really variable dependent and comfortability dependent. And I do think there's a lot of merit. I know both of us are into agronomy. I do think there's a lot of merit in terms of different surfaces. Like I do think that certain players are more comfortable in Bermuda. Bermuda is such a grainy surface. And if you,

go to Bermuda for the first time. Like I remember I used to go to the Wedbetter golf academies in Florida. And it's like, when you first start going there and you don't know how to put on grain and you don't know how to read grain, it's, it's like not even fun. Like you're, you're missing like pretty wildly sometimes. So I do think there's a lot of merit in, um,

being more comfortable on, you know, Bermuda or BAM. But when it comes to kind of different differentiating, is this a difficult course to put on? Is it a hard course to put on? It's so hard for me to kind of tell.

Yeah. I think you hit on something good too, that definitely, I mean, I'm from the Northeast and anytime I go down to Florida to visit my parents who were golfing down there, I put like trash and then I get back up here and I'm like, yeah, I can roll in, you know, 10, 15 footers. Like it's nothing because I'm putting on bank grabs. I'm putting on POA, like, you know, like good POA, not like the crap California POA, like, you know, Pebble or something, but yeah.

Yeah. It's, it's, it's just, it is, I think when you look at like the agronomy stuff too, like that, like definitely like putting on Bermuda, like I definitely put a lot more weight as far as like, okay, I know you're good at that. Like bank grass, I've kind of seen like that kind of levels things out. Cause like, you know, it does roll a little true. And these guys are professionals at the end of the day there. It's not like comparing what you and me do, you know, on the putting green, like, you know, like these guys are still hidden, like

you know, 10 footers of what, like a 50% or 40% rate. So, you know, even if we call somebody like a critical bad putter, like if you guys, if we give them like 10 feet on a bank grass, you know, green there, they're going to do pretty good. So, you know, it's easy for us to sit here and nitpick guys, but, but, you know, at the end of the day, you know, they're, they're still pretty good putters on those services. Yeah. Okay.

When I told Nagels that I was having you on, he was like, oh, you guys are just going to jerk yourself off with all your numbers and stats and agronomy. And here we are spending the first 10 minutes in this strokescreen putting complete rabbit hole. Exactly. Yeah, it feels like I'm sitting on the psychiatrist couch here. You know, it's kind of...

Well, I can go all my ramblings about agronomy and, you know, putting takes. So, yeah, that's great. So, but that's why I'm here. Perfect. Well, that's why I had you. Exactly. You know, I love talking this stuff. And obviously, there are a lot of things that we weren't even, we aren't even able to come up with answers for. But I love kind of talking about it and digesting it and debating it.

I think we covered the course for the most part. I didn't get to do a solo podcast. So, you know, I didn't do a whole deep dive myself, but to kind of put a bow on it, like

I'm not overly concerned this week with whether a player is long or short off the tee. There are some quotes that I was reading. Driving accuracy here certainly helps, but not so to the point where I would recommend only honing in on fairway finers. I don't think missing the fairway is a death sentence. I think you kind of hit on it with the proximity distances. 54% of approach shots come from between 100 to 175 yards.

all of those ranges rank above tour average relative to other courses. And oddly enough, almost 25% of approach shots still do come from 200 yards plus. Um, well, very few come from one 75 to 200. So my guess is that can be chalked up nearly to kind of all players going for the green and two on some of the par fives. I guess there's,

two relatively long par fours and two par threes that are pretty long. But other than that, like you're going to have a wedge or a short iron in your hands on probably 12 or 13 holes. And so kind of along with wedge play and the ability to control an occasional long iron, I'm primarily looking for players that, as you mentioned, are comfortable in easy scoring conditions and have experienced some success on bentgrass greens. I've

I know I probably sound like a broken record during the fall swing, but it's true. I think birdies are the name of the game during this portion of the season, and it should not be overlooked that some players are just more comfortable than others in tournaments where the winning score is 25 under.

Yeah, I mean, it can allow guys to be aggressive, play loose, and, you know, fire at pins. And, you know, there's a lot of golf courses like that where just guys are firing at pins all the time. And, you know, I mean, this is an example of rock and mortars with Detroit Golf Club. Guys pepper greens there, and, you know, it turns a little bit of a putting contest. Same thing with all the Byron Nelsons. Like, funny enough, like, it didn't matter going from TBC Craig Ranch and Trinity Forest. They basically all played the same. So, yeah, I'm with you. Like, you know, I mean, if you give a pro, like –

a short iron or a wedge, you know, from the fairway into a green, like it really shrinks the tap, you know, the gap in talent between the best players and the worst players. So yeah, I definitely think, you know, this can be wide open. It's gonna be fun to handicap and yeah. Why don't we let's get to the betting board. Yeah. Yeah. Let's dig into it. Okay. So actually let me take it. Let's take a quick break before we get into the odds.

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Okay, so...

I'm going to give you these odds, Steve, courtesy of DraftKings, but we were even talking a little bit earlier today. They're all over the place. And what's funny about the DraftKings odds is they're like the worst. So this week, I don't know what's going on with that, but they have like 13 guys under 30 to one for some reason, but I'll use the DraftKings numbers for reference, but feel free to throw out kind of any numbers as we go along. I always encourage people to shop around. So 25 and below, right?

Brooks Koepka is 16 to one. Louis Oosthuizen is 18 to one. Webb is 18 to one. Abraham answers 18 to one. Hovland 20, Scheffler 22, Zalator is 22, Harris English 25, Sam Burns 25, Kevin Na 25, Paul Casey 25. I guess we can go up to 30 and include Hideki at 28 and Sungjae at 28 in that group. Is there anybody that piques your attention favorites wise, Steve?

You know, I think part of the challenge of some of this tier two is like, I mean, we're kind of in a weird part of the schedule right now where, I mean, we haven't seen some of these guys since, you know, tour championship about a month ago. So, you know, I'm a big stats guy. I like seeing how trend, you know, guys are trending, but I don't know if some of these trends are really real. Like we haven't seen Abraham answer since, you know, the playoffs. We haven't seen Louie who's season recently, you know, I mean, we saw a couple of guys at the Ryder cup, but it's hard to really gauge anything from, you know, match play, but I,

I mean, so, so a lot of this, like kind of breaking down the top tier is just kind of thinking about, you know, just guys who I feel like are pretty good with a short irons, you know, they don't necessarily have to be long, but I know once you get them like a short iron from a fairway and they can hit some pots, you know, I think they're pretty good. And, um,

I mean, I think for DraftKings wise, like the odds are not very good, but I've seen answer in Webb Simpson between 25 and 30 to one and some other places. And that's actually piqued my interest a little bit. Like, I mean, like you think about like a golf course, like TPC Summerlin, um,

And just a player like Webb Simpson, where it just seems like he has his types of places. And I know a couple of weeks ago at the Fortinet, like it didn't go so great for him. That's never been a place where he's been too great. But I mean, places like you play him at Wyndham, you play him at Sea Island, you play him at Harbortown and, you know, TBC Summerlin is just a place where,

you know, like finds a lot of fairways. And once you put them there, you know, he's really great with the short irons. He's great putter too. Like, and I can see him getting to that peak score of, you know, low twenties in order to make it. So, and say the Abraham answer, like, like he's really impressed me and he's been very versatile, a lot of different types of golf courses this year too, as far as, you know, played well at,

you know like a quail hollow i've seen him play well some easier courses too you know i mean the ball string numbers look pretty good on him i mean but we haven't seen him for a while so i think as far as the numbers go those are the two i'm looking for at the top here that i can kind of picture in my mind of getting to that low 20 score to at least make a playoff or you know win this thing

Interesting. Okay, yeah. I've seen some... I definitely agree with you on... It's a little bit more answer than web, but I've seen both...

I think they're both are going to be pretty popular selections this week. I think when you get on a course like this, where a lot of players have described this as a positional golf course and webs, obviously one here before I think answers finished second here before as well. Both of these guys have played well at this course a ton. So I think both of them just judging based on course fit, make a ton of sense. I want to ask you about Brooks.

I have a whole Brooks case and I want, I want to get your take first before I dig into it and try and sell you. I mean, I mean, he's played well here before, right? I think he finished second here back in 2017. You know, I, I've never really bought the whole, like, does Brooks try these places or he doesn't? I mean, he just, he's a good, he's a good player at the end of the day. Good players play well places. And there's been a lot of circumstantial evidence of why he hasn't played well at other places. So I don't know. I just, I don't,

I always have a tough time grading Brooks, maybe because I love Brooks, and it's hard for me to be objective with him. I mean, listen, the ball striking numbers this year have been great with him. His iron's really good all year. Obviously, he's awesome on the team. Makes a lot of birdies, too. I kind of think...

Is the ceiling really going to be the winning score or is it like top 10, like T gate or something? And maybe that's Brooks is the type of guy to maybe pair up for me, like in matchups or, you know, maybe like a top 10 prop top five prop of four and for winning though.

I don't know. I don't know if I'm, I don't know if I see that like big explosive ceiling that I think you really need at this type of course. Like that, that doesn't really scream Brooks to me, but I don't mind the play, you know, if you want to play him. Yeah. So I think the number is kind of troublesome and the number is what man's keeping me off him. He's, he's 16 to one on draft Kings. I don't love that. He's I think 27,

The best you can find is 22, which I would have some interest in. But as you mentioned, I just want to poke some holes in the he doesn't care about any other tournaments besides majors things. I went back and looked. He's played in 14 non-majors last season.

And he's finished in the top five in four of them. So he's finishing in the top five, including a win, by the way, and two other runner-ups. So he's finishing in the top five in nearly 30% of the non-majors that he plays in. That's elite. Like that is downright elite. I can count the number of other players that do that on one hand, right? It's really elite stuff. And here's the thing too.

Brooks is going to tell you he doesn't care about a lot of things. He's going to act too cool for school probably in every interview that he ever does because that's his persona. That is his relationship to the media. Is that genuine? Who can say? But he's going to throw people off his scent a lot. Remember how everyone freaked out about Brooks' Ryder Cup quotes? This is a different week for me. Now I have to worry about what other players are doing. I just like to take care of my own business.

Real golf people, like really smart golf people, were saying that he shouldn't be on the Ryder Cup team with that attitude.

I went to the Ryder cup, Steve, he was fucking awesome. And he was having the time of his life and he was, he played awesome on the course and he was an awesome teammate too. There was even the story of how he finished his match early on Sunday and walked all the way back to another hole, even though the U S had already walked it up just because he wanted to watch burger closest match out. And I just say all this because,

To illustrate, if you're handicapping golf tournaments based on what players or whether or not you think they want to be there, especially when it comes to

who as much as I love Brooks, I just, I think you're barking up the wrong tree with, with kind of that mindset. And listen, call me crazy, but I think he's playing this event to win. And this isn't one of those Palmetto or Byron Nelson weeks where he just wants to tune up before a major. He'll get out of there on Friday. Once he gets some good swings in, like, what is he tuning up for the CJ cup? Like maybe,

maybe he wants to come to a course where he's already experienced loads of success at he clearly feels comfortable on and he's coming off a pretty disappointing season by his standards maybe he'd like to win i don't know brooks and jenna go to vegas all the time there's not like a huge boxing match this weekend jenna's not here to promote something this isn't like a john rom going to napa to drink wine and tune up for the rider cup thing like

nah, man, this is a fucking business trip at a course that he believes he can dominate clearly on. So I'm sorry for the rant. There's countless examples of this from

From Bryson talking about how his hands hurt before the Ryder Cup to Rory saying he's not excited for the Olympics to Rory saying he's burned out to Brooke saying he doesn't like the Ryder Cup. I just think we should put so much less stock into these unquantifiable narratives and psychoanalyzation of people that we never met.

uh and you are the perfect example of somebody that doesn't even have to get worked up about any of this stuff because you don't have twitter uh anyway but i i just think this is an awesome course for brooks and and i don't buy that narrative am i crazy

No, no, you're not crazy. I will say, though, there is actually a big boxing match this week. It's Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder 3. So that... I don't mean to put a little bit seed of doubt there, but I would imagine Brooks is probably going this week. But... Scrap it all. That's a good point. Well...

Other than that, though, I agree with everything you said. Like, yeah, this is a good golf course for him. I mean, he has shown success here. Like, yeah, I like he obviously goes to places to try and win. Like, I've never bought that argument either that he just doesn't try and use these tune up events. Like, he's a great player. He shows up. But I mean, I think for just like placing the outright bet.

Like I see like, like nine is 19 is probably like the ceiling I see. And that's good enough for like T six T five. Like that, that just, that just me, but like, I have no problems using draft Kings. I think there's a couple of match-ups that you might want to pair them up against too, that maybe we can talk about later, you know, top five prop. Yeah. I think that's fine. I think the top five prop will probably pay. I mean, if he's 20 to one, that's how five prop is going to be probably, you know, probably like plus 800 plus 700. It's usually about half of the outright. So yeah,

Yeah, I mean, there's a lot of ways to bet Brooks. I just I don't think the outright is going to be where I'm going to place them. But I have no argument for it. You know, if you want to do that. Okay, me neither. I'm kind of lukewarm on the outright. I have some more thinking to do. Anyone else in this range? Because the other guy that the guy that I really like is a deckie.

Yeah, no, I like him too. I like the odds. He's hanging around like 28 to 30. I mean, the problem with him towards the end of last year was, I mean, he wasn't in his irons good, right? Like, I mean, it was definitely subpar compared to what he does. But I mean, did he play on Napa a couple weeks ago?

Did he? I think, yeah, he was awesome. He finished six and gained six and a half strokes ball strike. Okay. Well, there you go. So, I mean, if that's back and I mean, if you want to play the agronomy game, Ben Grass technically is his best surface. So, you know, I've seen him play well at kind of these like overseeded golf courses out West. If you want to play that narrative game as well. Yeah. I mean, like he can definitely ball strike his way to a good finish. You know, I think again, kind of like, do I see Hideki get into like 23 under though?

Yeah, I think that's a little bit of the challenge for me. But again, I think he can be very good. I think he'd be useful in DraftKings, especially if he isn't highly owned, if people are overlooking him. Again, if you want to go to the top 10 market, head-to-head, I think that's fine. I think the only other guy who I've seen steam on in this range who...

I'm having hesitancy on it. And I love this guy. It's Scotty Scheffler. And I feel like I'm in deja vu a little bit because I feel like we have been in this spot with Scheffler before where we've seen him, uh,

do really well in the public eye on a big stage. You know, kind of like I think about, you know, after the PGA Championship in Kiwa, he played really well and then everybody went to Colonial like, oh, we're going to play Scottie Shuffler this week. You know, back grass greens, you know, Texas guy, we're going to do that. He's going to get his big win. And he fell flat and it seems like

He's tend to fall in flat kind of after those big events. And he kind of look at the numbers, like, you know, he doesn't typically punt very well on bent grass. You know, I mean, if you really want to like pick knits, that's maybe one, like, I love Scotty Shuffler, but like, I think he started like 20, I saw a book, you know, starting at 25 to one, he's already up to 20. So he's clearly getting bets there.

I think he might end up being the pretty popular outright because people want to be on him when he wins. And I don't know, maybe it's just scar tissue from me putting a lot of faith in them thinking, yeah, this could be the big week. And it just says it's not coming. I don't know. What do you think? Okay. I love Scottish yet for as well. He's like my second favorite player in the world. And I, I,

I've bet him a fair amount. And I, I think here's my thing with Sheffler and I, I'm not going to bet him this week, but I think the Ryder cup thing can kind of go either other two ways. I think there's two ways of looking at it.

And reason A is, you know, there's going to be a natural letdown, right? Like I listened to his interview after the Ryder Cup. He was like, this is the best week of my life, right? Everyone at the Ryder Cup said that it was such an awesome week and being there also, you could just tell how awesome this was for the guys.

door B is, you know, I think Scheffler, like he gained a, I think he gained a lot of confidence that week. And I think that you could kind of look at the Ryder cup as a rite of passage. He deserved to be there. He was one of the guys he was

I mean, he was awesome in a singles match against ROM. He would have shot. I know they're playing match play, but he would have shot like 65 that day to beat John ROM. He was awesome with Bryson and best ball too. Like he played great. And so he's,

playing good golf. And he has this experience where he's surrounded by all of the best players in the world. And he's kind of part of that team and he's in the mix with those guys. And that is, you know, you could view it as a rite of passage where it's like, okay, I'm ready. This was the sick experience for me. I'm ready to do kind of big things.

I don't, I, it's just the number again, is it's just like with all of that being said, he still hasn't won a golf tournament. And I still think he's a 30 to one golfer in this field. And I it's, that's, that's, what's difficult for me. I don't think that he should be, uh,

I don't think that he should be lower on the odds boards than Sam Burns right now or Hideki. And so it's just with Scheffler at 20 and 22, that's where I kind of run into some difficulties. And as you mentioned, there's nothing about this course that really screams Scotty Scheffler to me. This he's such a great driver of the ball.

he's so long and accurate and he's a much better long iron player than he is a wedge player. And this is a course where it's positional. I mean, you're still able to hit driver, but it's not really a bomb and gouge course. Like I think people may think that because Bryson won here, it's a bomb and gouge course. And this is something I forgot to mention in the, in the opener when we were talking about the course, but like,

No, Bryson had one of his best iron weeks of his career and ranked fourth in the field in driving accuracy that week. He didn't bomb and gouge this place the way that he's bomb and gouged Wingfoot or Torrey Pines. There's over 100 bunkers, and they've actively tried to make this kind of a positional golf course. So I don't think that this is maybe the course that is going to accentuate Scheffler's best skill set.

Yeah, I mean, when Bryson won, too, that was before he bulked up. I think that was the last tournament before he started getting all that weight. Like, back then, he was more of, like, a good combo of length and accuracy in general. And then just after that, that's when he started trying to hit it as far as he can. But, yeah, I mean, like, I think I agree with you. Like, I think just, you know, Scottie's number is so low because of the thing with the Ryder Cup and people want to be on for that. Like, I mean, honestly, I've seen Zalatouris' number at, like, 30.

Like I'm more of, I would be more apt to probably bet that if I want to go for the guy with the first win, like, you know, I, I, I've read the article, I think because he didn't make the FedEx playoffs that, you know, his putter was just awful for a while. And then they have figured out, well, the putter faces caved in. That's why your putter is so bad. And they have fixing that. And actually his last couple of tournaments, he's been pretty good. And I mean, if he can match really good ball striking with, you know, if he starts putting on the green, like, you know, I mean, he's going to win a whole lot too. So yeah,

Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of good options in this range. It's hard to choose. I think it probably is going to come down to, you're right, as far as what books you have access to. Because like we said, I've seen Webb all the way down from 16 and all the way to 30. I've seen Zalatouris at around 28 or so. Hideki kind of has. I've seen 22 to 30 as well on him. Yeah, it's probably going to come down to...

you know, just getting the best price on somebody and, you know, you know, going with that. Okay. So you, you like answering web. I like the best. I like Brooks and a decky, the best let's move on to the next tier because I want to, I want to get into some of these guys in the 25 to 50 range. I'm not going to list all of these guys, but I,

In this kind of next mid-tier range in the, we'll say, 25 to all the way up to kind of 100 range, this kind of mid-tier, who kind of has your attention the most? Well, I mean, it might be a little bit of FOMO, but...

I mean, Patrick reads down to 40. Yeah. And we haven't seen him in a month. And I can play the narrative street with him too. Like, oh, well, you know, he's not happy that he didn't make the Ryder Cup. Yeah. Yeah, you know, he's just going to show up and just, you know, try to teach everybody a lesson. But, I mean, listen, like, I can – he's not – he definitely is not a staff darling, especially what he did, you know, ever since the Memorial. He's been very good. But that has been a month ago. A lot can change. And I do think, you know, like –

If he is going to, he just finds like four days of just nuclear putting. Yeah. He could just blow out the field and do pretty well. So I know that, you know, I mean, this season he wasn't very good with a wedge, but I know historically he's been usually pretty good with it. So I mean, the number is 40. It's tempting. I think I'm probably, I'm going to try to resist on that, but he, he has my attention because I think the last time I thought this way about Reed was around Torrey Pines when I thought they hung a number they shouldn't and he ended up winning. So yeah,

I mean, so there's him. Um, I mean, I'm always a sucker for Sungjae M. I just, he has burned me so many times, but this also kind of seems like a golf course that, you know, you can take advantage of too. Like, you know, you know, his iron game is starting to come around a little bit again. You know, he's a good putter on bed grass. So he makes a lot of birdies too. So, you know, these types of golf courses where, you know, it's pretty high rates of green regulation, high driving accuracy rates. He tends to do pretty well at those as well. So, um, yeah,

Yeah, I mean, I think I haven't made any bets in this range, but I'm probably looking closely at Sungjae. And I was disappointed with the Matthew Wolfe number was, to be honest, because I just think his ceiling is so big. But I was hoping that it was going to be a little lower instead of what the 40 to 50 that I'm seeing in front of me. So, yeah, it's probably just those three and maybe Neiman too is the guys I'm most interested in this range. Yeah.

I was looking heavily at Wolf too. I was really hoping for a 50 with Wolf. And I think the best that I can get is like a 45. I still might end up pulling the trigger there, especially if I don't end up betting Brooks. Hideki, the only two bets that I have

made thus there's three bats one super long shot guy but I bet uh Hideki at 30 as I already mentioned I bet I bet Gooch at 80 who we can talk about a little bit later but I was I was curious I was kind of going back and forth between Wolf and and I like Mito a lot too man I think I

I think a lot of the, have you been, have you kind of, you don't have Twitter. So are you completely privy to the Mito kind of explosion that has happened over the last two weeks? Oh,

I mean, I'm excited for Mito, so I can only imagine that everybody else on Twitter is. I mean, when you see eye-popping, ball-striking stats that he puts up and the fact that really the only thing holding him back is a putter that can turn in an instant. I mean, on paper, there's a hell of a lot to like. If you're somebody who uses Fantasy National, he is definitely somebody who pops up based on the 28 rounds that he has put on the scorecard since he got the battlefield promotion. But yeah, I mean, I...

Again, is he ready to win? Is he ready to actually take a tournament by the balls? Or is this going to be in our top 10 performance where maybe that's the smarter avenue to take with him? I don't know. I mean, I love Mito, but is this the week for him? And at 50, I don't know. There's some really good guys around 50, 40 to 1 that

I would be more apt because they have a little more win equity that I would trust to actually reset ceiling than a guy who, I mean, he has what eight tournaments under his belt on the PGA tour. So for an outright, I don't know. That's it. I don't know if I can get there right now. Yeah. So, um,

I, uh, I didn't bet him last week. I, I thought about it. Uh, I talked about him on my podcast last week and, uh, I, I almost ended up playing the trigger. I ended up paying Carlos Ortiz instead, which was not a great decision in any rate. But what's interesting to me about Mito this week is, um,

So a lot of the METO people that have been banging this drum incessantly, they seem to be taking a break this week. Oh, really? Yeah, yeah. So the METO chatter this week early on a Monday, it's a lot more tempered. It's a lot more subdued.

Um, which was my whole point with the Mito craze is just wait till people start losing money on him. Like these corn fairy tour guys, a lot of them are really good. So I'm not saying don't play them, but everyone loves a new toy that hasn't hurt them before. And all these guys, they're,

They're not Doug Gimm or Aaron Wise or Keegan Bradley or Russell Henley, right? Like they haven't broken people's hearts yet. In fact, some of the Korn Ferry Tour guys have made people that bet on the Korn Ferry Tour a lot of money. But two weeks into the METO experience, he disappoints some people last week. And Aaron's like, ah, we're good on METO now. And it's like...

well, if you liked Mito last week, I don't know how you don't like him this week. This actually is probably a better course for him considering the fact that in a limited sample side, he's been way better on bent grass than he has on Bermuda. He hit the shit out of the ball last week. Um, and he back to back weeks, he followed, he had, he had insane ball striking performances. Um, he just couldn't make any putts and

I get it. I get the, he can't make enough putts to get to 23 under thing. Well, let me give you his corn fairy tour wins from last year, 20 under 21 under 27 under. And so people are hammering him at 30 to one last week. And it's like, what changed? Like it, it was actually shocking to me. Last week was more encouraging to me because it was so shocking that he was able to maintain such an elite level of ball striking that

He's gained 20 strokes from T to green in the last two weeks. 20. Yeah, no, it's huge. I mean, I, I think, well, I mean, my co-host, I sold my coast on the meetup with the Wyndham and that did not go well that week. I remember that. So, and so he, he's sworn him off since then. So I guess I would have thought that probably would have, you know, turned people off. But then I guess, I mean, I bet him, I think at Napa, he played really good. He just came up a little bit short. Yeah.

You know, I mean, maybe if that's really the case,

that people are starting to turn their nose at him, then maybe I need to reevaluate. And cause I, I have nothing bad about to say about me to, you know, he's a great player. And as a stats guy, I mean, he checks pretty much every single box I'm looking for. So yeah, I mean, it's maybe I need to recalibrate at that point. Yeah. I think from like, just from speaking of a draft Kings percentage or standpoint, like you used like 24, 25% last week, um,

And he's not even going to be close to that this year. I mean, I still think he'll garner ownership because they priced him lower than I would have expected. Like, he was $9,900 last week, and now he's $7,800, I believe. That's a good job. I get that this is a big field, but, like, he finished top 40 and gained 10 strokes from Tita Green, right? Mm-hmm.

So I still think that because they priced him so low this week, he's still going to garner ownership. But it's not going to be anything. I still don't think it'll be like 20% or something like that. So my point with Mito, and I just...

I haven't gotten there yet. I'm kind of trying to figure out between him and Wolf in that range is I just think if, if you like this guy last week, what he did last week to me was more encouraging because it's so difficult to maintain the elite ball striking thing. And my point kind of similar to you is being so reliant on the numbers. The reason why it was harder for me to jump on the Mito train, um,

than others is I was just like, let me see a bigger sample size. Like I just, I need to see him do this for a sustained period of time. Like, I don't know how he, he was terrible at the Wyndham, right? I, that's why I didn't bet him at the Fortinet, which is because I was like, I don't know how Mito responds from a bad ball striking week. I don't have data on that. Right. And he was awesome at the Fortinet. And then he was awesome again, ball striking this week as well. So my only, my only point is, is it's like,

he's starting to show you that type of thing. And so if you liked him last week, like I think you, I think this is arguably a better, a better spot for him, but you know, we'll see. I, him and Wolf are like the two guys that I'm really kind of honing in on in that range. You know, another guy who I'm actually looking at who I forgot to mention. So, um,

Adam Scott's been playing better. And I actually had access to the website I use. They basically estimate the strokes gained data for the European tour events. And he hit the shit out of the ball at Wentworth too. And I mean, you know, I mean, like...

You know, going back to the Wyndham, you know, close call there. He played pretty good there. I don't know what happened the second round of Liberty national. Maybe I, you were there, right? I don't know if you saw what happened. Like he played great the first day and then you just tanked the second day. But he played good at Wentworth. Like,

You know, he's played okay here, you know, in the past. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's a guy with some pedigree too. Like, again, like, I don't think he can get to like 23 under, but I mean, I think the one Naga Adam Scott, you know, his entire career is the fact that he's a bad putter. Well, I mean, that's one of his strengths all year. So yeah,

Yeah, I think he might be kind of an under-the-radar play too. I don't think he's – I mean, I'm not on Twitter. I don't know if he's getting steam, but just looking at ownership, it doesn't seem like he's getting a whole lot of play early with DraftKings. I think that might be kind of a decent play with maybe some top 10 upside with him. Okay, so this whole range here with like –

Like with DraftKings, their odds, I think, are a lot worse than a lot of other places. But I think they have the best Kokrak number. I think if you want to bet Kokrak at 55 to 1, I could totally get behind that. I think that makes a lot of sense. I think the Adam Scott number, as you mentioned, I'm seeing him at 55 here. I think there's a pretty wide range of outcomes on that as well. I think he's kind of all over the place too. The guy that was like...

I never play Steve and he never, he's never going to pop in, in any of your models, um, based on his specific skillset. But I was actually shocked to find how much Ian Poulter made sense to me on this course. Yeah. Why can't he be Kevin? Not at this place. Exactly. And he didn't play all that bad. The rider kept ready. He had Rory's dead carcass on his back the whole time.

No, he didn't. He didn't play all that bad at the Ryder Cup. And your point with Kevin Na, I actually tweeted that kind of as a joke, which is like, if you're curious about how Kevin Na would have performed at whistling straights, like see Ian Poulter. And it was, he actually, as you mentioned, he did a pretty decent job for like how difficult that course was for him. Like he was not, I watched his, um,

I think it was his second match with Rory on a Saturday afternoon. It would be. And, uh, I mean, he, these like chef or these guys are hitting the green and two and so, and he's just, he's just grinding out there, just absolutely grinding. And I don't know, you get to a course like this and, um,

I think the, I think him and Kevin now have a very similar skillset. And I think that his ball striking has been a little bit better for him. Um, and it's kind of trending in the right direction. He, he had last, we saw him again was at the Northern trust and he lost strokes off the tee, but gained two on approach and was a neutral putter. Um, I, I think that he's, he could play here and he's, he's coming off a, he's coming off a bad putting week. Um, and,

And he's such an elite putter. So I went back and looked, how does Ian Poulter respond after a bad putting week? And in his next start, he's gone plus four, plus 9.1, plus 4.5, plus 5.1 in the last calendar year. So I think we're going to see a lot of positive regression with Ian Poulter's putter. And I think that he is, I don't know if he's going to win this tournament, but I'm going to play him in DraftKings and I'm going to bet him in the top 40 market as well.

Yeah. I mean, I think another player in that vein is like a Brian Harmon too. Like that's kind of a similar skill set of Kevin not to like, and again, like, you know, the iron, the recent iron numbers and ball street numbers don't look good, but I mean, there was a point in the middle of last year, he was hitting the shit out of the ball. So, and again, like, I mean, we can go by recent trends, but last time we saw him was more than a month ago, a lot can change. So, and this is a golf course that would be pretty good for,

fit for him. It's not going to be overly long. You know, he can hit a lot of short irons in the greens. He's a good putter too. Like that's a guy with a lot of birdie upside as well. So yeah, I think like a Poulter, a Harmon, you know, those types of like, if like that little blueprints, I think definitely can work out this week. What about as we kind of dig into some of the deeper guys, I'll just open it up to anyone now, who are you kind of looking at as we get into like the eighties and the one hundreds and beyond? Yeah,

Well, I think I'm kind of ashamed to say this guy, but I mean, Ricky Fowler can't stay bad forever, right? Like, is this a Hunter Mahan situation or like he's 32 years old and we haven't seen him since the Wyndham. That was two months ago. And we have absolutely no idea what he's been up to. His outright price is a hundred to one. This is not paying like 60 to one 51. This is a hundred to one. And you look at some of the guys around him in that range too. Like,

I mean, would you rather have like Seamus power or like Ricky Fowler? He's got a little more wind upside there, like wash of Charles Schwartzel. And like, listen, I understand that Ricky is, you know, it's been hard times, but this has been a decent golf course for him. He's played well at somewhere golf courses, like at his best, if he has found something, this would be a type of place where he does have a pretty high ceiling. And I mean, I think if you want to like, you know, take a chance from in draft Kings or just throw 101 flyer on them, like,

I think there's some ceiling there. I think I know that's, you know, I'm a little ashamed trying to make a case for Ricky Fowler because I've slammed him for years. But, you know, at this point, like we have no idea what these guys have been up to for the last two months. And he could have found something with the swing shoes. Maybe he's in a good place mentally. So, you know, I don't hate that one as far as like starting like in your, you know, triple digits and, you know, going from there, just throwing a stab at him.

Well, we know what he has been doing the last two months. He's been shooting commercials for Rocket Mortgage, but I agree with your sentiment. I drafted Ricky Fowler in a season-long fantasy golf draft, and I got a lot of eye rolls, but my logic was the same as yours. The upside is there, and it can't go lower. Again, unquantifiable narrative as well with kind of

what his personality

places in golf going forward, right? Like, is it, is he a, is he a guy that is, that cares a lot about kind of, he has such a high approval rating and like everyone you talk to is like, Ricky is the greatest guy of all time and he could continue to stink and still get sponsors exemptions and still probably get some share of the pep money and stay somewhat relevant despite not

the results on the course not accumulating whatsoever. So he's just one of those guys where I'm not sure what Ricky's future looks like, but I think, you know, if you want to take a shot, I think it, I think it makes some sense. He's played well, like on the West coast, he's played well in Phoenix before and does it,

desert golf courses and TPC golf courses. He's played well here too. So I think I'm probably comfortable like being a little bit late on him, but I think like the reason why I drafted him is because it's like, look, there's once you start getting into this range, as you mentioned, like what's going to shock you more if Ricky Fowler has a resurgence resurgence this season, or as you mentioned, Patton Kazire wins twice this year and earns more money.

Right. Yeah. I mean, I, I think the range outcomes would be, Oh, we say here like Europe now, like, Oh, Ricky found something one twice, you know, maybe something like that. But how about Rasmus Weigart? You're going to buy into that coming over from the Euro tour. Yeah.

I got a feeling that maybe he might be a trendy name just because he's European, he's unknown. I don't know. Those types of players tend to be guys that get thrown around. I don't know. What do you think about O'Rasmus here? So as a fellow stats guy, can you tell me what his deal is? Because I have nothing. No, so I have his last 50 rounds on the European tour. So really good iron player.

Um, he's long off the tee can't hit a favorite for his life, but I mean, if it's, you know, pretty forgiving here, that's fine. Little worry about his putter, but he had been writing a pretty hot putter over the Euro tour and his two wins. I think, uh, he gained, I think four strokes, total putting, uh,

I think when he won and then at the BMW PGA, he didn't play well. But I mean, I think for those types of guys coming over here, it's always a different beast. Like I think he played what the Valspar in April that didn't go so hot for him. You know, that's he's kind of like a wait and see guy. Like you kind of got to prove it. But I mean, he's a talented player. He's a good ball striker. He's definitely on my radar and I'll be watching him to, you know, see if, you know, he can do some stuff over here and maybe play a little more.

Yeah, I got to get that. That's kind of the issue I have with some of these guys is it's like I think there is a

I watch the European Tour like a psycho. I don't bet on it really, but I put it on in the morning. And I think there is a, I think that the competition on the Corn Fairy Tour is often stronger than the competition on the Euro Tour. And I think that the competition, I think that the way that courses are set up on the Euro Tour as well are actually very different from the way that courses are set up on the PGA Tour. Actually, this course is more set up

like a Euro course, kind of generally speaking sometimes because it's a little bit easier. But again, with these guys, I need to see a little bit. I would need to see how they adjust a little bit once they get on the PGA Tour. And I need just a little bit more data to kind of see how they play on these courses and stuff like that. And I'm probably comfortable being a little bit later on these guys. But listen, if you...

I know he's, he's a corn fairy tour and not a, a Euro guy, but like, listen, if you took a shot on Cameron young last week or Hayden Buckley last week, you probably won all the money on drafting. So you're, you're the one that's probably doing it right. And I'm being too conservative. Well, I mean, I, I, I'm a little conservative with those guys too. Like, I mean, those, I mean, you may, we talk about like, you know, Mito's performances on those corn fairy, you know, term is, but I mean, they're,

they're pretty easy courses too. And there is a little different ball game between going from, you know, corn fairy to up here. Like even though TPC Summerlin is pretty easy golf course, it's still a different beast, you know, to step up, you know, there's more pressure too. And yeah, I mean, this is also a much stronger field. I think only, uh,

maybe 11 or 12 guys of the corn fairy graduates actually are playing. Like a lot of those guys are just alternates right now. Like I know Nick Hardy didn't make it to our pendant, didn't make it like a lot of those popular ones. So, you know, this is going to be a big test for the Buckley's, you know, Siki, you know, cam youngs, you know, Steven Yeager too, you know, let's see if we can continue his redemption story after kind of bombing out the last time he got up here. So, yeah, I mean, I think, you know,

I, this early in the year, you know, in the fall season, this is kind of like a, you know, a beta test for some of these corn fairy guys to kind of see, okay, can I trust you at the Sony? Can I trust you at Amex next year? But for now, I don't know. You still kind of got approval from me too. And, you know, I don't care if I'm a little late on you. You know, if, you know, the cost is probably going to be what? Like I miss out on what, a top 20 prop? Yeah. I can go find that somewhere else probably. Yeah.

Anyone else you want to touch on, Steve, before we wrap this up? Anyone else that we haven't talked about kind of further down the board? Maybe not even necessarily from an outright sense, but any other guys that you're really high on in DraftKings or in a finishing position market? You know, I mean, I'm trying to look for guys who...

Cause it does seem like the, the ones who pop up here, like I'm trying to think like, you know, the Austin cook types, like the guys who, you know, generally don't gain a whole lot of strokes off the team, but just because they're really accurate and they're pretty good with their short irons, they can put a little bit, you know, they tend to pop yourself, you know, like you're Roger Sloan's like, you know, he tends to hit a lot of fairways, you know, and when that's the case, you know, he tends to do pretty well in those types of courses. He puts pretty well too.

You know, Adam Hadwin tends to do pretty well in these types of golf courses. He tends to do pretty well out West too. So, you know, I think his odds are hanging at 151. I don't know if I want to bet that, but he's someone I maybe want to look at for like a top 20 prop, maybe draft Kings, you know, Adam Shank, you know, I think you liked him last week.

you know i i still think yeah i still think you maybe go back to him like this is still i think this is still a type of course where he's okay and he's had good success here too you know i mean if you want to an oldie but goodie a boring type of ryan moore he's boring but he tends to be pretty solid

You know, this seems like a Joel Damon type course too. Like, you know, it's not overly long. You know, he can, you know, his iron play has been all right. He's been putting a little better lately too, but you know, I'm still kind of digesting like the bottom of the board here. It is Monday, but I mean, those are probably four or five names that are kind of on my radar way down the card that I'm taking a look at. Yeah. The only other guy that I'll throw out there is, um,

So really shocking to me, but like the big kind of model that I did where I kind of put all my things together and made kind of a composite version. Hank Labiotta still graded out as five. Right behind answer, Louis, Sam Burns, and Paul Casey. And he's 6,300 on DraftKings, right? And he's coming off three missed cuts in a row.

he remember Hank Labiotta was people were, people loved Hank Labiotta last summer because he had that little run where he finished fifth at the travelers, uh,

eighth at the John Deere, and fourth at the Rocket Mortgage. And he actually contended in all those tournaments and had a chance over the weekend to win those tournaments. Well, all those tournaments are bank grass birdie fests, right? And I know that the screen reads miscut, but if you look at his iron play, it actually got way better for him. And now he returns to another bank grass birdie fest and he's $6,300 and 250 to one.

Yeah, I mean, I had an outright on Lebiota at the Rocket Mortgage. And I think all he needed to do was birdie the 17th, he would have won. And he didn't. So, no, I mean, I think with him, he had some off-the-course issues. I think some stuff with his dad or something. And right around that time, when he withdrew from the three-on, yeah, so he withdrew. And ever since then, he has been great. So, I mean, yeah, I can buy...

I can buy a little bit. Let's see. He still looks good in my stat page. Like, you know, I mean, putts grade, the iron plays good. And, you know, usually, and those are your scoring clubs. So if those are firing, I think you can do well. So yeah, like, I think that's a good under the radar draft Kings price, especially, you know, he's six, 300 bucks, you know, a top 20. I think that's solid. Like, you know, another guy close to him too, is a Mark Hubbard.

you know, he was playing well towards the end of last season and just didn't make it into the top one 25 and just kind of bombed out in corn fairy playoffs. But I mean, again, like his iron numbers are pretty solid. He's a good putter too. Like, I think those two guys are kind of at the similar vein as far as like,

you know, guys who might be able to thrive at some of these birdie fast where they can kind of get things going with a putter, you know, stick things close. And yeah, I think those are two pretty good calls for, you know, guys way down the card. If you're, you know, looking for a cheap guy, the underdraft Kings lineup, or maybe just fly our top 20, you know, top 10 long shot or something. Yeah. That's a good point with, uh,

webby o to think he actually he really hasn't been the same since then obviously like you dig into the numbers and the irons did kind of look like they were getting better but that's interesting i wasn't i wasn't thinking about that so funny steve i bring you on to talk numbers and the two most valuable pieces of information you give me are that there's a giant boxing match this weekend and so watch out for brooks kepka and that bring up the hank webby over to point two

Yeah. See, I don't even need to be on social media. I'm connected to everything. All right. I still am able to find all these little tidbits for you. All right, man. Well, I think we, I definitely hit on everyone that I wanted to cover. I'm going to probably, you know, some of the other guys that I was looking at just to list them off. I was looking at, I was looking at Chaz on this course as a top 40 guy. I was

I think Griot could play well on this course as well. And Lucas Glover is another guy that's played really well here. But those are all kind of guys that I'm thinking more in the draft kings and finishing position market. As far as outright goes for me, I'm locked into...

I got Hank at 250 to one. He was three 50 to one and I wasn't able to get that, but I got him at 250 to one. I've Gooch at 80 to one and Hideki at 31. And the guys I'm still mulling over to add or, uh,

I'm probably going to pick two of Brooks, Wolf, and Mito are kind of the guys that I'm eyeing. But just a quick little recap for you, Steve, who are kind of the guys that are filling out your betting card? Yeah, so I was able to find Anser and Simpson at 25 to 1. I hit that. I think they're just good golf course fits, and I can see the ceiling with them.

I did lock in a little bit on Ricky at 101. I couldn't help myself. I'm probably going to end up going on Wolf just because I believe in the kid's talent. Yeah, me too. Say what you want about him. Some people might have called him soft because of mental health issues, but listen, if your head's not into it, you're not going to play golf well.

And that's the reason why it didn't go well for him last year. So, I mean, if everything's all squared away, apparently he's been working with George Gankas. Apparently he's also switched back to his old iron setting. He hit the ball pretty well last week. So, yeah, I mean, I believe in the kid's talent. And even if it's not a number I don't love, I mean, at the end of the day, he just has to win. So I'll probably have going on him and then...

Maybe one more down the card. I haven't decided though, but probably, you know, answering Simpson, definitely Fowler. I'm already locked in and then probably Wolf and then probably one more.

Yeah, just to put a bow on the Wolf thing too, what you mentioned was so important, and I think the reason why I've had kind of some hesitancy with Wolf until now is obviously because of the inconsistency, and he hasn't been playing a lot, and he's been playing a lot more sparingly. But Wolf kind of finally showed me everything that I wanted to see last week at the Sanderson, where he has this top 17 finish. He is...

he gains in all four categories for the first time since literally this tournament last year. And it finally, from a statistical standpoint, he's still not going to rate out super well for you because he just hasn't been consistent enough. But he showed me a lot last week for what I was kind of looking for, where it was the first week where it,

before that it was kind of all over the place. Even, even the weeks that he was playing a little bit well, like he had a good us open and stuff like that. It was statistically, it was all over the map. Like one week, the driving would be shit and the irons would be great. One week he'd gain a ton of strokes, putting, um, and nothing else. And like, it was really all over the map. And we're finally, finally felt like for the first time last week where he was, he was marginally gaining in all four categories and, um, kind of starting to get back a little bit,

on track and now he returns to a course that he lost in a playoff in last year and he's obviously he's been he's been good on bank grass and all that stuff so yeah i like wolf as well steve i think that'll do it my friend why don't you uh why don't you tell everybody where they can find you this week i know you do the the podcast but you also do some writing as well right

Yeah. So I have a two columns a week over on sports gambling podcast.com. I put out usually a preview on Sunday and then my picks on Tuesday. We also have the podcast, the golf gambling podcast, which does two episodes a week on Sunday and Tuesdays every week. And while I'm not on social media, you can certainly find me on our Slack channel. It's on the bottom, the links on the bottom of all my columns. You can come there. You can banter about golf. You can tell me my picks suck. You can tell me the picks are great. It doesn't really matter. I am accessible there.

Yeah. You know, come join the conversation. We got a great group of guys there. We're always throwing out bets on Thursday and Friday, you know, exchanging ideas after the rounds, as far as like, you know, head to head. So we don't want to do around three, round four, like stuff like that. So yeah, it's a great community. If you want to, you know, join a bunch of guys and talk golf, you know, it's the place for you.

Steve, thanks so much, buddy. And I'm sure actually what I was about to say, we'll talk again very soon, but your, your partner in crime invited me on your podcast next week. So we will talk again very soon. I'm sure. I don't even know if you knew that. No, I did. He shared the news. So yeah, I was, uh, I'm very much looking forward to, uh, having you coming on our show and

and then listen to me and Boston Caber fight like a married couple. Steve, thanks so much again, buddy. Best of luck with your bets this week. And I'll talk to you soon, my friend. All right. Thank you, Andy.

That's it for the show. I'll be back next week on Sunday. Back to my normal schedule with my Sunday preview pods. We'll be back for the CJ Cup, and we've got the great Rick Gabin coming on again for the Tuesday show. So we're getting back in the rhythm. I hope everybody enjoys the rest of their week. Good luck this week at the Shriners. Cheers.

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