RSM Classic with Rob G
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All right, Inside Golf Podcast. I'm Andy Lack. Great show today with Rob G. He is the host of the Approach Podcast powered by Fanshare Sports. And he is one of my most respected minds when it comes to golf betting and DFS. So we break down the entire board for the RSM Classic, talk about some general DFS strategy at the top. Rob is my favorite person to test out theories with. So this is a really great show and I think you all will really enjoy it. Before we get to the show though...

Couple housekeeping things at the top. This is the final tournament show that I'm doing before the new year, not doing a show for the hero world challenge or the QBE shootout. I am going to do one more show in December, but it's going to be a majors preview with Nagels. It's probably going to be pretty long.

It's probably going to be a lot of yelling. I know that he is not very happy with me right now after Powers and I threw him under the bus last week, but there's going to be a ton of great info in there as well. I'm actually going to dive in and really do some early research on some of these major venues. I've gotten the chance to play Southern Hills last year, and I've got some stuff to share about it. And hopefully I'll be able to provide some insight because I know that you can bet into those markets all year.

And a lot of people like doing that. And hopefully this can help maybe identify some players that you might want to bet sooner rather than later. Plus just kind of give our early leans on the courses and a whole other bunch of nonsense. So,

That will be out either the first or second week of December, but that will be it for me. I'm really looking forward to a break. I might hop on as a guest in some spots doing some other season preview stuff, but I cannot wait to exhale from this golf season and charge up for January. My plan of now is to bring back the Sunday show in January, which I really appreciate all the people who have mentioned that they really miss that show. It, it

it just wasn't conceivable for me getting settled into this new job. But now that I have my legs under me, I'm hoping to be able to bring that back in the new year as well. So want to wish everyone a really happy Thanksgiving. I'm so incredibly grateful that I've been able to do something that has helped people and is meaningful to people. And you guys have no idea how much it means. Even the small stuff like a retweet and an Apple podcast review, all that stuff. It

It goes such a long way in the business that we're in and it doesn't go unnoticed. So thank you again for supporting this. Thank you again for supporting me. It has truly allowed me to land a dream job and I'm grateful for that. Tell people stuff like that. If you appreciate them, tell them. It goes a really long way, especially at this time of year as we get into the holidays. So without further ado, let's get into my conversation with Rob.

Rob G. is the host of the Approach podcast with our good friend Drew. He also writes for Fanshare Sports about football sometimes as well, if I'm not mistaken. We're just talking a little bit off air. He is the person who

that I'm probably most aligned with on a weekly basis. It always feels like we are on the same guys for better or worse. Why do you think that is, by the way? I have a couple of theories. Well, I want to hear your theories. And I just want to say, I appreciate you having me on.

I think we just kind of conceptualize golf tournaments real well and understand players. Now, I mean, there's so many good golf handicappers out there and there's there's different ways to kind of go about it. But for you and I, I love the kind of combination of short term and long term. And, you know, I believe it's just very scientific. And so when I say long term and short term, it's just data analysis.

And so that's why I think you and I kind of maybe find the same guys and think this in similar ways. But what are your theories? Okay. All right. So I think it comes down to the fact that we're both not afraid to zag. I mean, anytime I start to see a giant narrative kind of take hold during a week, whether it be

this course is going to play super easy, or this course is going to favor bombers, or it's going to be windy, or this course is going to favor people that live there. My immediate reaction always is, okay, but what if that doesn't happen? Because if that's what everyone is thinking and it does happen, then great. Everyone will be on the same guys and your chances of actually winning big are still going to be super low because there's no differentiation.

But if that doesn't happen, then we win all the money, which hasn't actually happened to me yet. But I'm very new to the DraftKings thing. I think I made my first lineup around last year's US Open. You have won all the money before. And I think the reason you have is that you're not afraid to push back on the narratives. You aren't afraid to fade

public perception. You aren't just doing it to zag either. You're doing it because you kind of understand that DraftKings is an entirely different game than betting. And I think you do a really good job of explaining that on your show as well. Yeah, well, I appreciate that. And that's one thing I had just written down to give you some props of

that you think differently or you kind of go about the process in just a DFS perspective. We know how good of a handicapper you are betting outrights and kind of in your card, but, and in football too, gosh, you're having a hot, hot season right now. Midway point, I think we're reaching in or past it and you're killing it, but, but you also get it like you get it DFS wise. And so it, yeah, we're not afraid to zag. I really appreciate you saying that, but almost, you know,

using the zag experience, we'll call it to our advantage in DFS, because you're right. Not a lot of people get it. Not a lot of people. And I hope maybe we get into that conversation because obviously I love it, but a lot of people play the wrong game in DFS and you have it figured out really, really well. And so that big score is around the corner. Well,

Well, I think the difference in golf too is I just, I think it's far too variable of a sport to not approach whatever some of the prevailing narratives are with skepticism. Like a couple of weeks at Bermuda,

Tons of people took a bath because the leaderboard was all bombers and data golf told them to take short and accurate guys. The top of the leaderboard, by the way, at my Coba as well, tons of bombers too. No one wanted to play Matthew Wolf. People didn't think it was a Sheffler course either. And I think data golf had that course as the heaviest driving accuracy dispersion. I actually, I think the best example of this that that actually killed me as well was the British open where all week you hear hard, uh,

windy scrambling around the green play grinders and the wind didn't happen. And it turned into target golf and it was a ton of Americans and elite iron players at the top. So again, I'm not saying zag just to zag, but I think there can be some merit, at least in draft Kings to do your best to kind of think differently.

Oh, a thousand percent. And it actually rewards you to think differently, but we really want to understand the variable of randomness or, you know, shout out to my friend, Mike, who does the cut line, who kind of incorporates randomness into his own models, but

I think in DFS, our ego hurts us because one thing we do, or at least I'm seeing so much with this strokes, game data environment that we're in just right now is that people then begin to justify or rationalize their plays as if it's just a, or betting outright. And so when you're betting outright, you're just competing with the house, competing with the sports book. When you're in DFS, we,

We got to play the man, not just our card. So we're playing against everybody in our contest. So in a large field GPP, which the majority of people play, we're competing against our contest. And so what everybody is getting the same strokes gained data for the most part, people are in turn and analyzing it and interpreting in different ways. Sure.

But we all get the same strokes game data. So what that does is we think, gosh, I'm such a great golf handicapper. And then my ego goes way up. I'm going to beat everyone in my contest by just handicapping better than them.

Well, and this, again, element of strokes game where it's just everywhere, everyone has the same information. And so your ego that I'm just going to beat everyone based on my skill of handicapping is not, it's just wrong because there's so many elements of randomness and variables that make golf so hard to predict. Look at last week, Coke rack came into terrible form. Look at trainer who miscut is a miscut king.

Finish up there. And so the point being with all this true intelligence is knowing that you will know nothing. And we want to incorporate that into DFS. And so if everybody is on a guy like last week, our boy Gooch, everybody is on it. Well, there's just too many variables to go with everybody. And I just can't think, well, Gooch, I'm going to handicap the hell out of them. And that makes them a good play.

No, we got to know that, hey, there's so much. Yeah, I see a lot of strokes gained out of that says Gooch is the play. But hey, let's understand that I don't know everything. Golf is so hard. And let's really think about the leverage we get if we don't play a guy like Gooch. So long winded, but it just hopefully affirms your point.

No, 100%. And I think we're kind of aligned in that way. Let's get on to the task at hand this week and try and see if we can put some of that logic to use. I think this is kind of an interesting example of a place where you're going to hear a lot of narratives based on the fact that we're going to a course where there's, I don't know,

eight to 15 people in the field that live there or practice there and so on and so forth. We do have some good course history here as well. Well, actually, let me back up. Let me start here. Okay. So RSM Classic, we have two courses this week, Rob, the plantation and the seaside.

And basically players will rotate rounds on Thursday and Friday at the plantation in the seaside. And then if they make the cut, they're going to play both their weekend rounds at the seaside. So if you make the cut, you're going to play the seaside three times in the plantation one time.

And I think there is some difference in the courses, how much you really want to weigh that kind of depends on what you're looking for. But the plantation is a par 72. It measures 7,005 yards. Walter Travis designed it in 1926. Reese Jones did a renovation. And then Davis Love, who's actually in the field this week, did a pretty big renovation on their greens as well in 2019.

The Seaside, different designer. It was designed by Harry Colt in 1928, and then it was redesigned by the Fahs in 1998. And it plays as a par 70 and measures 7,005 yards. So, and both courses are Bermuda. So the Seaside is certainly the more difficult of the two, mainly because it has two less par fives. And there are a couple of things that I found interesting that I'll point out, but I want to kick it to you first. What are you kind of looking for this week?

Yeah, well, I'm looking for obviously, just like the data suggests, is that finding fairways is so key. There are more hazards off the tee than normal. But I do want to bring up the plantation versus seaside, just different. So the plantation obviously is the easiest. But what we've actually found, and this is a shout out to Jason who runs at Fanshare, our course preview found that since the Loves redesigned it,

the plantation has actually been more difficult. And so in just a DFS showdown perspective, the narrative is already being thrown out there that the plantation course is easier.

Well, if if that trend, which is a small sample size, maybe continues that, hey, the plantation actually played more difficult last year. Well, I might just capitalize that and stack the plantation. But over over the course of every tournament played here. Yeah, the plantation is easier. But I just want to throw out that that maybe when the after the Davis loves his father, you know, Davis love and his son.

redesigned it and it's playing a little bit more difficult, but the seaside really is at the whim of the wind. And so we want to be mindful of that. I know a lot of people are already throwing out their cards right now. I just say, please be cautious of what the wind says. You know, we're on Monday night. And so the forecast is definitely going to change come Thursday, but obviously being at the seaside, it's, it's more exposed. The last thing I'll just say is,

If you can get a tee to green game is key. So stay in the fairway, hit your greener regulation. That's going to be massive. Actually, there is one other thing I think, and this is a shout out to my friend, Mike. Yeah. Who does the cut line I would just mention is that we, we look, it could be that both courses are overseeded with rye. And so if that is the case,

Listen to what caddies and players have to say and the people around the course this week. If it is overseeded, that is really, really going to hurt the great guys who perform well on Bermuda. So if you're running Bermuda models and we find out it's overseeded,

Be cautious because that actually hurts the guys that do well in Bermuda. So I'll just shut up. I'll hang up and listen. What else you got? No, you said something that I think is really important. So I was actually looking at some of the Davis Love renovation stuff myself. And one thing that it seems like Love made a very concerted effort to do was make these greens far more challenging.

And one thing that I found interesting is putting inside feet, five feet was actually way down compared to tour average and three putts as well was way up compared to tour average. And it does check out. If you read some of the Davis love quotes, he really made an effort to add some more slopes to these greens. And obviously I'm talking about the plantation, but on the seaside as well, like a staple of Fazio designs is he's always going to have some slope to his greens as well. So again,

While I do, for the most part, agree with the narrative about the win being the course's biggest offense, I really don't hate the angle of looking at some putting stuff this week, especially once you bring up the idea that it's not going to be a pure Bermuda and you maybe want to hone in on some guys that just over a larger sample size and a multitude of surfaces are very good putters.

I actually, I was looking at the winners here and the leaderboards. It's all really good putters. So one thing that I was looking at a little bit more than normal was kind of a bunch of different putting stats, three punt avoidance kind of stuff like that was one thing that I found kind of interesting when I noticed that putting inside five feet, it's, it's not a, it's not a gimme. The only courses that, um, had as difficult putting inside five feet were POA courses.

on the West Coast. So I thought that was kind of interesting as an angle to look at. Yeah, I love that. And I don't think that's talked or looked at enough is, you know, the putting within certain distances, excuse me. The other thing, just a few comp courses, Harbortown, that's thrown out a lot. Yeah, it makes a lot of sense. Colonial and then Walleye out in Hawaii, which we'll see, you know, here in the new year.

Okay. So I actually, I want to give you a good example of pushing back on a narrative like we've been talking about. So one thing you're going to hear this week is there are nine par fours between 400 and 450 yards. Now, personally, that is never a stat that I'm going to look at. Well, there are so many different variables at play with a yardage range, uh,

Is this hole a dog leg? Is there wind? Is it downhill? Is it uphill? Is the course playing firm and fast? Is the course playing soft? Is there a bunker in the middle of the fairway that forces you to hit a three iron off the tee? A 450-yard hole could be driver seven iron. It could be two iron wedge. The players that rate out highly in that stat, it's all random.

And I guarantee you, Rob, right now, if you took a poll of PGA Tour players and asked them,

what are your strengths and weaknesses? I guarantee you, not one player says, you know what I'm really good at? Medium length par fours. Because it's not a thing. It isn't indicative of an actual skill set. Now, I think par fives is different. Even par threes, maybe, but there's not one PGA Tour pro that is going to tell you,

I really need to work on my par three, 200 to 225 scoring. They will tell you maybe I need to work on my long iron. So I would just say kind of be careful with that stuff. I know that there's nine of them. I get it. And if you look at it and it helps you, that's fine. I'm not shitting on that, but there are ways to maybe think differently and say, oh, this is what everyone is plugging into their models and it's spitting out the same guys. I'm actually going to go in a little bit of a different direction.

Oh, a thousand percent. And contrarian modeling gives us contrarian players. And you're right. So we think of, we talk about bad shock versus good shock. Let's just say that there's bad,

data versus good data. The variables that come behind par fours, 450 to 500 or 400 to 450, whatever, you're exactly right. There's too many variables within that that create inconsistency. So we can say, gosh, that's going to create inconsistent results from our DFS or betting. So that's bad data. A thousand percent. I love it. This is why I like talking with you, Andy. Again, you get it. Andy gets it and it's a fun conversation.

I appreciate that, man. Well, actually one last thing before we get into the guys, Sea Island Mafia, I think we should just mention all of them. So people know we are acknowledging all of them. So the guys in the field that live here and tell me if I'm missing anyone, Rob Harris, English, Brian Harmon, Zach Johnson, Patton, Kazir, Matt Kuchar, Keith Mitchell, JT Poston, Hudson Swofford, Davis Love, Chris Kirk.

I think Kisner has a house here, but now splits time somewhere else. And I think Watney does as well. Did I miss anyone? Sounds good. Sounds good to me. Yeah. I know both of us aren't really looking at that stuff, but I think, you know, we have to mention it for everyone to know. There are a lot of players that are familiar with this course and live here. And I do think kind of as we were saying, Rob, before, you know,

with the greens and the Davis love renovation. I do think that matters. I don't want to say that it doesn't matter at all. I do think that some of the guys that live here and play this course a lot, uh,

are going to have a big advantage on the greens. With that being said, the course that they see every day is probably going to be set up a little bit different from the course that gets set up for tournament weekend. And a lot of guys say how sometimes that can be a little bit of a jarring experience where they see the course one way every single day when they practice on it. And then once it gets to tournament, we get set up in a completely different way. I want to get into the odds board now, Rob, and

I'm going to give you guys, I'm going to give you the guys below 30 to one Scotty. And these are all on DraftKings, but feel free to throw out any other numbers that you want. Scotty Scheffler is 14 to one, uh, Webb Simpson's 14 to one. Cam Smith is 17 to one. Louie is 25 to one. Corey Connors is 27. Harris English is 30. I'm not betting any of these guys, Rob, but I'd still like to talk about some of them from a DraftKings perspective. I'm pretty curious to see, uh,

the ownership shakes out. I'm very interested to see what people are going to do. I think my gut inclination is that everyone plays Webb and Harris because the sea Island thing. I'm also really interested to see how people treat Scotty Shepard this week. I think people are pretty pissed at him. I think the perception is that he choked, which that's a whole different conversation, but yeah,

are you betting any of these guys first? And secondly, if not, who would be kind of the guys that maybe you'd be starting your lineup with in this range? Right. So I'm not betting anybody in this range. Maybe you can talk me to Harris English maybe, but I don't think we see a winner from the chalk range, but in a DFS perspective, just what you talked about with Scotty, I think we're going to get massive recency bias with Scotty. This is such a, a,

a square reaction to Scottie. So two tournaments ago, Scottie came in at lesser ownership, performed really well. Then came in high ownership last week, performed very well, but left a sour taste in everyone's mouth because he didn't close the door on it on Sunday. And then it's going to come out and people are going to jump off him, also going to jump off him because he's the...

on the DraftKings and in the betting board. He's the highest-priced guy. And so I think we're going to get massive ownership discount on Scottie. When I say massive, I don't think he's going to be under 10%. But comparative to other guys in that range, I think Scottie could be a great DFS play. But, yeah, I'm not touching him in the betting market and likely not doing it with any of those guys except maybe Harris.

Yeah. So I guess my only concern with Scheffler is he's been in contention twice in a row. Is there a letdown spot? But I think what we're seeing with Scottie is a little more sustainable than people want to give him credit for. He basically lapped the field in tee to green last week outside of Luke list. He gained zero strokes putting for that tournament and barely lost to a guy that

gained nine strokes putting right and scotty's actually a really good putter especially on bermuda too i'm not going to bet him either but i actually think that he might be sub 12 this week and we're talking about a player that is awesome on bermuda incredible coastal and winds golf resume as well and he finished fifth year in his only appearance and and i actually i think there are a lot of question marks with some of these guys rob like are we sure that web simpson is still good

You know, I think about that all the time, but I will say I get Webb wrong. I don't think I've ever gotten him right. So I'll just, you know, throw that out there, but I'm not sure. And people might look at his recent results and they think they see, what did he finish? 16th at the 14th at the CJ. And they say, okay, well, gosh, he had a,

Top 15, but he lost 2.6 on approach, lost 1.7 off the tee. I'm so glad he brought that up because Webb's like folding it together. He's like got the gorilla glue holding it together. At any point, man, it could just break. And if he shows up at high ownership in DFS, definitely not touching him at that number. But if he shows up high ownership in DFS, man, that is a great leverage spot because –

man, he's a, like you said, we don't even know how good he is, if he is still good. So outside of one good ball striking week at his home course at the Wyndham, he's basically had to rely on his short game and putter to even sniff contention, which he hasn't even been doing. I think he's a safe play. I think he's due

for a solid result. I don't think he's going to miss the cut, but are you satisfied if a 25% web gets you a T16 is kind of the question that you have to ask yourself. The only other guy that I'll bring up before we kind of get into this next range,

I think Louie's interesting. I actually could see him playing well here, especially because no one seems to want to touch him. Even Brian, our friend, the president of the Louie fan club is like, no, not for me this week. But I think Louie hit the ball. He hit the ball well at the CJ Cup. He's had pretty good success on shorter courses and in the wind. I actually don't have a huge problem with him here. So I would be kind of

okay pivoting off to Louie, providing the ownership is pretty low as well. Anyone else in this range you want to touch on? Corey Connors, Harriet Harris English, Cameron Smith before we kind of move on? Yeah, I'll just say I'm really intrigued in what Cam Smith's ownership will be. Me too. Yeah, I know he doesn't perform well off the tee and his fairway finding is a little not where we like it to be, but I played Cam Smith

a ton in the regular contest and showdown contest and everything but and my gosh he missed so many putts within 15 feet within 10 feet and that's usually what cam smith can do really really well he's good on bermuda he's excellent around around the green good on part fives yeah in the last 24 rounds he ranks fifth in the field in putting so i i would expect some maybe positive regression with the putter but

But again, the off the tee game is a little bit concerning. But I'm really – if his ownership is going to be sub-15%, I'll go again heavy on Cam Smith. I don't have his tournament history in front of me, but I do think he played here last year and did pretty well. Don't hold me to it because I don't know. I think I remember looking at it. And Corey Connors –

I don't know what to do with him. And it's probably going to be an ownership play. He hasn't played in a while. He obviously, of course, fits. But if it comes in low owned, I'll roster him. If he comes in highly owned, I won't.

Okay. Let's move down the board just a little bit. I'm looking at Joaquin Neiman at 31 to one, Russell Henley at 31 to one, Kevin Kisner, whose name you're going to hear a lot at 34 to one, Adam Scott, 36, Alex Noren, 36, our boy Gooch, 38 to one, Justin Rose is 50 to one, Seamus Power, 55 to one, and Brendan Todd at 60 to one. This is a range that I have a little bit more interest in, but I

I'll kick it to you first. I assume maybe you're starting your card in this range if you're foregoing the top. Yeah, I think so. First, I want to talk about our boy Gooch. I know you and I, we shared a couple of DMs last week kind of relating Gooch to a stock. And I think you brought that example up, which is so brilliant that we bought in when Gooch was 100 to 1. I remember him being the 6Ks in DraftKings for a lot of tournament. We bought in and

Here are a couple of top 15s, top 10s that kind of won us a lot of money. And we said, gosh, okay, now is likely the time to sell. And we saw, I mean, he had a first-round leader, which –

Yeah, I'm not trying to hate on anybody. A little bit of a square play because of what we now know what he did the rest of the week. But but yeah, and I don't think this is the time to buy in on Gooch. Gooch's biggest struggle over his career is off the tee. And that that is not something where he's going to have a lot of forgiveness this week. So I just wanted to mention that with Gooch, because I know people think.

And they might say, okay, Rob and Andy. So I just kind of want to throw out there. But I actually do like Alex Noren, a guy we know who can make a ton of birdies, who can kind of putt well. Again, not so great off the tee. But I'm willing to have a lot of interest in Alex Noren. And the other is just Keegan Bradley, another guy, again, not great recently off the tee.

But Keegan's played well here. And one thing I really love, I love if green and regulation is important. And you just mentioned how, you know, putting can kind of be tricky. Then I want proximity from the majority of the ranges that these golfers are going to come in. And that's 125 all the way up to 175. Well, Keegan ranks third and fourth in proximity. Yeah, we know his putting. He's like almost last in the field, but yeah.

have an okay putting week. Keegan can do well here with some bad class. So I just wanted to throw those names out. But what do you think about the guys in this range? So the first bet I made was Alex Noren at 40 to one. Shout out Chris Power. Shout out Feinberg. Welcome to Noren gang. It's alive and well this weekend, and we're ready to take on the Kisner people. But he's the number one putter in this field. He's an elite lag putter.

Probably the best on tour over a large sample size inside 10 feet. And he's been playing well, 18th at the Zozo, 45th at the Mayakoba. A lot of good results on shorter courses and in the wind. So I think this is a great spot for Alex Noren.

I want to float a Russell Henley theory by you real quick because I'm kind of undecided on him, but this is, I was kind of thinking about this on, on the drive home from the golf course this morning. So I think people are kind of, and this is stemming from just talking with some friends about, um,

about Scheffler and just kind of how people view contention and people playing poorly in contention. So I think that it seems like people are kind of over Russell Henley at this point. And I get it. I actually bet him live last week and I just really liked the value based on the guys that were around him. And sure enough, he got down to five to one at one point, he was only one stroke back on Sunday and he immediately proceeded to miss back to back footers. And to be honest,

I don't even think people have forgiven him, Rob, from Wyndham, right? From when he was the community play, when he gagged at Wyndham. So I think if those things didn't happen,

And which I think is one of the differences between me and other people is that people tend to view playing poorly in contention as a negative where they label label people as losers. These guys are lifetime losers. They're choke artists are never going to win where I kind of view it as reps. Like I look at a guy like Russell Henley and he's,

He's contended at the travelers. He's contended at the U S open. He's contended at the Wyndham. He contended last year. He had chances to win all those tournaments. He contends a lot. And I think because he's contended a lot, but he hasn't won people just think he sucks, but it's like the same thing as if Oklahoma makes it to the national championship and they get waxed by Alabama.

It's like, would you rather have them win the Outback Bowl? It's like, I like when players taste it a lot, even if they're bad in contention. And this happened with Sam Burns, where he was really bad as soon as he would get in contention for, I think the first five or six times he got in contention really, really bad. And then suddenly he stopped being bad. And I do think if

Henley had a backdoor top 10 last week and a backdoor top 10 at the Wyndham. And people saw his course history here and his ball striking numbers and his comp course stuff. They would normally be all over him the same way that they were all over him at the Wyndham, because this is the same type of Russell Henley course. And he's been awesome here. Do you think there's any weight to that theory or am I reaching a little bit?

I love it. And I love the way you're just going about it too, with like testing theory. So I think a lot of people who are new to DFS or new to betting, you know, are just trying to absorb as much information as they can. And then they make their selection. You know, you're developing your own process, your own theories, and then almost kind of, you know, testing it in a way. But I really love what you have to say first. Yeah, I

I agree. And I think it's hard to argue against that the pressure of being in contention on a Sunday is an embodied process. It's in the mind and its body. It's a somatic experience that it can get us in the fight or flight response and kind of fear-based things come in and our body doesn't perform well. But I also think is that narrative is way overblown because of two things. First is

Well, that is when TV coverage is. That is when more eyeballs are glued to, you know, shot track tracer and the coverage and everything. So we're seeing these golfers every single shot. Well, we already know how much variable and randomness includes. So if Wolf hits a hole in one and I just see that shot on Sunday, I can say, man, this guy is a great Sunday player.

Or if I see his double and I think, gosh, he's a terrible Sunday player. Well, that's just too small a sample size. And so there's so many things. There's more things that can go wrong for a golfer than right on a golf course, especially on Sunday. But then we have just more eyeballs. We're more analyzing the guys near the top on Sunday. So take that with a grain of salt. But I think you're exactly right. So it's a balance between two of those things.

situations of, okay, yeah, I want to... One thing that helps ease the fight or flight response, if I'm in contention for the first time, I get anxious. I'm not used to that feeling. My feelings aren't used to that feeling. One thing that gives security is experience. Knowing what to expect gives us security, gives golfers and athletes security. So if you've been there before and

You know, you survived it. You know what to expect. That gives you security. And that allows you to be in psychology, what we call this flow state of mind where you're just reacting. You're almost in a little bit of a trance and you're just reacting. And so you're exactly right. And just Sam Burns is a great example. You get yourself more in contention like that. You're less likely to have that fight or flight response. You're more likely to stay in flow state than you're likely to perform. So I'm so happy you brought that up.

Yeah.

I haven't seen his name mentioned once and I haven't bet him yet. I still haven't decided if I'm going to, but I just found that a little bit odd because he's playing great and he's hitting the ball great. And he's actually starting to figure out the putter a little bit too. So I just found it interesting. I may end up getting there. Let me ask you real quick before we move on to the next range about Kisner. He is going to be a very popular guy, both in the betting markets and DFS market.

he's not somebody that I'm gravitating to right off the bat, but any thoughts on Kisner because I know he's going to be, I know he's kind of, I've seen the joke by our friend, Chris Murphy this morning where he showed the circle of the golf tips checker. And it was just a circle with Kevin Kisner in it. Yeah. And so part of my strategy does not say bed, Kevin Kisner. So other people might say, gosh, course history, but,

And those narratives that come with, oh, he's so familiar with it, might play an importance. But the guy has not been playing well. And he's been playing awful. In his range, in my rank and my model that I think would be consistent, he actually ranks 125th.

So I haven't, I can't believe, and I guess I can believe he has great course history. He's a couple of top tens, everything like that, but he's just not coming into it. Well, it's just kind of what you and I were talking about Brooks early last year. And to give you an example of Brooks, everyone bet Brooks, I shouldn't say everyone, but a majority of people bet him at that number last week. And that's a great number for Brooks.

But then what tends to happen is everyone sees that name on everyone's outright card, and then it filters over to being highly owned in DFS. Brooks should not have been near 18% in DFS. No way.

But everyone sees it on a card and they think, oh, there's parallels there, which there's not. Kisner's going to be highly owned. And I think he's incredibly bad chalk, an extremely good leverage opportunity. Now, does that say Kisner's going to play bad this weekend? Well, I don't know, but the leverage is definitely there. If he ranks 125th in my model and he's in the 9K range, I don't know how you play him in DFS. You're only playing him because of that FOMO almost. So I'm not touching him.

Yeah. And the other thing that you mentioned is when something like Kisner wins at the Wyndham with no form or Brooks wins at the Phoenix with no form, people are going to dine out on that for years. But the amount of countless examples where a guy coming in with bad form wins.

Has not played well at all. You know, it's just, there's way too much. There's way too much variables that it, maybe it's the exception, not the rule. Right. I mean, I understand what happened with Kisner at Winsome, but does that mean that it's going to happen again? Does that mean that he's a good play every time he's objectively playing bad golf?

Like Brooks, does that mean he's a good play? Like you should just, Brooks is never a bad play. You can never, ever, ever say that Brooks is a bad play because this happened this one time, right? So I would just be careful about kind of the exception versus the rule because yes, it's easy to dine out on that one example. But man, think of all the countless examples where, you know, it's kind of right there in front of your face and it doesn't work out.

So I'm with you a little bit on that. Anyone else you want to touch on before we kind of get into the next range? What about Adam Scott and Neiman? I'm kind of curious on your take on both of those guys.

So I have more interest in Adam Scott than Neiman. Yeah, Neiman can have straight off the tee. He can have that fairway finder. Adam Scott, sure. I kind of like how he played a little last week. I know he didn't perform well and didn't have a good kind of weekend, but I'm really just excited talking about this next range because the majority of my outrights are going to be in this range. And maybe my favorite play

DFS and outrights depending on ownership might come. So let's, if you're okay, let's hop on to the next area. Oh yeah. All right, let's do it. So I'm looking at this 60 to 100 range.

Matt McKenzie Hughes, Danny Lee, Brian Harmon, Joel Damon, Chris Kirk, Mito Pereira, Max Homa, Robert Streb, Jonathan Vegas, Brandon Grace, Matt Kuchar, Charles Howell, Matt Wallace, Jason Day, Luke last, all these guys. Okay. I'm going to stop there. You know, the guys that we're talking about, and then we can talk about some absolute bombs at the end. Go first. I'm on the edge of my seat, man. I have a inkling of who it is, but I don't, I would just tell me. Oh,

All right. Well, also my, my favorite player right now is probably Joel Damon and I'm a DFS and hammer and outright. I love them too. But one thing that are, there's several things I really love about, about Damon. One is one in a coastal course. We know that Frank's ninth and ball striking over the last 24 ranks 20th and fairways game ranks 18th on approach. And from one of the most important proximity distances from one 50 to one 75, we're,

ranks first. But I'm going to go to the Damon here in my trend model, and he ranks first by a long shot, trending in the best in the field. What I do worry about that is maybe he's reached his peak, but if he can just hold on, get that gorilla glue that Webb has, if he can hold on one more week,

got what Damon could win he had that great Sunday yesterday he had a great day yesterday jumped all the way up I love Damon he's one of my favorite plays I will throw out just a couple other Justin Rose likely going to be on my card Mackenzie Hughes is going to be on my heart card Matt Kuchar this is the return of Matt Kuchar uh CH3 that's Charles Howe he's likely going to be on my card

Matt Wallace is really, I think, going to go under on a DFS. He's going to be on my card. The majority of the guys I bet are going to be within this. And I'm happy to talk more about them, but I'm glad I mentioned Damon. I'm glad I mentioned those other four. Well, who do you like in this range? Okay. I know it's bad podcasting when we agree a lot, but you threw out a couple of guys that I'm absolutely in love with.

I'll start with Mac Hughes because Mac Hughes is one of my favorite plays on the board this weekend. And I've already bet him at 65 to one, but you know, I've heard his name a bit and he may end up being popular, but I think that's for a good reason. He just finished 29th at the Houston open and he actually hit the ball well and didn't

putt well. And I think we're going to see some positive regression with the putter. And he's been quietly very good this year. In his last four starts, he's gone 35th, 25th, 4th, 29th, and he hasn't even been putting like crazy. So you're getting a guy who's coming in playing really well at a course that suits his game and he's already won out before. The next guy that I bet is...

I'll tell you my favorite sea Island guy that I, you're the first guy that I've heard him bring up and it's, it's Matt Kuchar. Matt Kuchar has a pulse. And I actually think that he is, I think he's trending for a twilight Stewart sink ask, wait, is this guy actually going to win situation this year? He's gone 36 Fort net 25th Shriners, 22nd, my Koba.

He's playing way, way better than Kisner right now. He knows this course like the back of his hand. His irons are starting to come back a little bit. He checks every comp course box you want to look at. It's Monday afternoon and the ownership is 0% of 300 lineups on Fantasy National. I like him as a bat at 80 to one. And I think surprisingly, he's also going to be really low owned. I'll do the next two guys pretty quickly. I always love Matt Wallace. I was gearing up to bat him. My only concern is that

He's the only guy in the field this week that played in Dubai last week, and he missed the cut. So he got out of there pretty quickly. That's kind of my only concern, like if the time difference and stuff. But I think he's a much better player than some of the guys he's priced around. I probably will end up getting there at 80 to one. And then I don't know if I'm going to get there, but I just want to throw out Max home is 65 to one. And my prediction is that he's going to be sub 5% this week.

He just finished 35th in Houston and gained 4.8 strokes ball striking. I guess it's because people think of him as a West coast POA guy and he doesn't have good course history, but man, I am, I am shocked that he gets price next to, you know, below Keegan Bradley and he's right next to Charles Howell on the odds board and Bob Stravich is that surprising to me. And then

I think this guy is going to be very popular, but I did, I did want to throw out that I found it interesting. I, uh, when I put the short course filter on my model, when I looked at just courses under 7,200 yards, Chris Kirk shot from about 50th to first. Um, and so, and I, so I think that sometimes his stats get negatively juked when he's on longer courses that maybe don't suit his game, but when he comes to a course like this and

And Hawaii, I think he's a really, really good player. And I think he will be popular though, because he's a Sea Island guy and he's won there. But he was another guy that I was eyeing at 65 to one.

i love it and i'm so glad you mentioned cooch you know if i'm gonna toot my own horn real quick at mayakoba i wrote him up on the fanshare article about he's a great uh game theory play he came in at five percent i think it was in the 6k range something like that and had a t22 which 6k 5 you that's what you want make the cut so i i and i think you said it perfectly got a heartbeat there's a pulse with cooch

coming to a place he knows really well. And if while I is of course, comp, he's one there. Uh, I love the Cooch play. Anyone else kind of in this range that we didn't touch on, uh, Mito's hanging out down here. He he's kind of starting to see the, the regression, um, that I, you know, his irons regressing and his ball striking regressing. That's not a knock on him by any means. Like

call them more callas irons and ball striking was due for regression. And we saw it. So I don't think it's the end of the world that, uh, we saw a little bit of ball striking regression from Mito, but similar to Gooch, like these guys have been playing a lot of golf recently. And I don't know if, um, his

His skillset jives with this course the way that some other courses do. Yeah, I agree. Danny Lee is a little interesting. Yeah, I know. He's like, he said he's fully healthy now. That, I might take a stab at that. And Jason Day is kind of,

done well at these shorter courses like that or like this, I mean, which is just very surprising. He had a disappointing weekend. I know our boy Spencer is a big J. Day fan and so very disappointing. Maybe the other guy before we get into some of some bombs and one of these bombs I know is going to be popular, but this guy Aaron Rye

Not a lot of people know about him and playing him in DFS. It's been working out, worked out last week. Coming in, trending some of the best in the field. I think he'll be around 10%. He's someone that might sneak on the card. I love Aaron Rye this week. He finished. Man, you really think he's going to be 10%?

I think he'll be around 10% owned. I do. Now, I'm wrong often, but Robert Streb's going to garner some ownership right next to him. Luke List is just above him. Brendan Grace is going to do it. And then Hayden Buckley is playing really well. I think he'll garner. So I think that'll spread it out more. But yeah, I think he'll be 10% roughly, you know, if there's a margin of error, two points. So yeah, somewhere within there.

Yeah, the thing that I liked about Ryan, and in full disclosure, I don't follow the Euro Tour a ton. I talked to a lot of smarter Euro Tour guys than me, and they seem to love him. But I like that he's gone 15th and 19th in back-to-back starts on two very good,

different golf courses. So I don't really know what to make of him yet as a player. I don't think we have a larger, large enough sample size of data, but the fact that he can go from a very, very difficult golf course to a birdie fast and kind of still be able to play well, that that's kind of indicative that he's just playing some really good golf right now. And maybe it's kind of agnostic of whatever course he's on. We're talking about a guy that gained a

2.4 off the C and 5.7 on approach last week. I think that only puts him behind like Coke rack list and Sheffler. So yeah, Aaron Rye, I am very intrigued by in DFS. I can say one more thing on Aaron Rye and I don't hold me to it. I don't have the information in front of me, but I wrote him up in an article a couple of tournaments ago and I believe it was last year. He was top five in green regulation and,

on the Euro Tour. And then two tournaments before that, he was second or something like that. Again, top five in green regulation. And that is key here. We know that's one of the key stats. So he does have some back class on the Euro Tour within the green regulation percentage. He damn near led the Euro Tour in green regulation. And he's kind of rounding in the form. Yeah, I just wanted to throw that out there.

Okay. I have now, Rob, let's get into what we do best. I have about seven of these guys that I just, that I want to give a mention to. How do you want to do this? You want to go back and forth? Yeah, let's do it. Let's ping pong it. Okay. Let's ping pong it. All right. I'm going to start with, I'm going to start with Tyler Duncan and he's 130 to one and he's already won on this course. He's playing really well. He has no business, Rob, finishing top 30 at the Houston Open. He's

But he actually gained 3.4 strokes ball striking last week. And I have to imagine that he was hitting a ton of long irons on that course because he's one of the shortest players on tour. So if he can do that ball striking on that course, I can only imagine that

He's probably going to be in pretty good shape here at a course that he's already won at. I think the fact that he has won before he is going to garner some ownership, but I really do like Tyler Duncan at 7.2. And if he tends to get up there, then I think you can do a lot worse than 130 to one for him in this field. Oh, a thousand percent. I love Duncan. People have been right on him for a while. The last couple of weeks it's worked out.

I love Duncan again. I'm just going to say one guy, Hayden Buckley, before I give it back to you. Yeah, he finished 71, made 71st, made the cut in Bermuda. But before that at the Sanderson's and the Shriners gained 3.6 and one on approach. It has two top 10s.

Putting well. Puts pretty well on Bermuda. That's his best surface. We don't know much about Hayden Buckley, but I think he'll be low on. I really do. I think he'll be near Rye around 10%. He's trending well. If you take away Bermuda, we don't get strokes gained out of that. But outside of that, he's had a great fall swing. Take a look at Hayden. Who's the next guy for you? So I'll give you my next guy that I think is –

I want to give you the two more obvious guys, and then I'm going to reel off like four or five guys that I can guarantee you will be sub 5%. But what I found interesting was that, so Lucas Glover is a flat 7K. He's 130 to one. He's a sea Island guy, but it doesn't seem like he's getting the sea Island love on the odds board. Yeah.

I mean, the fact that you can find him at 130 to one and he's won recently, I don't think that he's going to win this tournament, but he's played great here. He's actually hitting the ball really well. He's kind of,

Unlike a Kevin Kisner or Brian Harmon, he actually does it a little bit differently. He doesn't really have to rely on a short game as putting as much. Glover's a really good ball striker and he's been hitting the ball pretty well recently as well. So I think I was a little surprised to see him at a flat 7K and 130 to one.

I love that. I love it. Guys, on the same page, I'm going to cheat and say someone who's going to be very popular, and that's Henrik Norlander. Norlander is going to be very popular this week. The last 24 ranks 25th in ball striking. Great with the wedges from 125 to 150. Ranks 12th in the field. Ranks 14th in proximity. Again, over the last 24 rounds, he is going to be popular. I think Norlander, between

between the low 7k and the high you know six k's he's gonna be the most most popular guy so maybe that's cheating but i i would feel bad if we didn't mention norlander

I'm going to give you a guy that has kind of had that title recently, but it's almost like he died. So everyone was all over Russell Knox at the Bermuda and Mayakoba. And I love it. This is so it's the question that we ask each other each time. It's like, what changed? What changed? Right. Because this is a very similar course that he's played really well before. But now he's sixty seven hundred in this field.

And I haven't heard his name mentioned once. Maybe I'm wrong about this. I would assume that he's around 5%. But he missed the cut on the number in Houston, which wasn't a great course for him. And he hit the ball great. So everyone was fawning over him on these coastal courses two weeks ago. I think he's a great play here.

I love Russell Knox. Russell Knox is going to be a staple and I'm probably going to have an outright on it. And DFS, he's going to be a staple. He's going to be a core play. Okay. Do you want to, do you want to give me one or do you want me to give you another? So I'm going to give, I'm going to give one and it's someone I've been riding a while and that's Hudson Swofford.

coming in. He ranks sixth. He is a Sea Island guy. I've been on him. I'm afraid the ownership will be high, but I've been on him the last three tournaments. Gained 2.1 on approach last week. Did well on the greens. He's an okay Bermuda putter. It's not his best putting surface. He's a poet guy, but

But if he can just avoid the big number, that's what did him in at the Houston Open, did him in in Mayakoba. At Mayakoba, he had one of the best Sunday rounds going, was vaulted all the way up to the top 10. And then I think went bogey, double bogey, and then dropped all the way back, had a couple big blowout holes in Houston. If he can just put that together, we've seen him win in a coastal course on Bermuda,

And he's a sea Island guy. I think he's a great play. You'll probably come back in my outrights. I've been riding them the last couple of weeks. Can't get off the train now. I was looking at Swofford too. Again, I thought he was, I thought he's been consistently underpriced during the fall swing and I've been riding him a lot as well. I'm going to throw out a guy that,

Kind of has been a popular guy in the past, and it seems like the shine is off him a little bit. But I actually think that this sets up really well for Doug Gimm. He's played well here. Yeah, he's played well here. Last year, he gained over five strokes on approach at this course. And surprisingly, one thing I noticed with him, Rob, is for how volatile of a putter he is.

he's been like automatic inside five feet, which is kind of something I was worrying about a little bit here with kind of the make percentage being well below tour average. And it seems like he's starting to work out some of the kinks with the putter. Um, he's coming off a 27th at the Mayakoba, which I know we didn't have strokes game data for, but the one other thing that I found interesting about gamut, and I'm probably going to end up betting him at

at 144, 140 to one, but you know, he's 140 to one, some places he's a hundred to one, some places he's one book has him at 66 to one. So I always, I always look for this stuff and, and I always mark it down. I think it's fascinating when books are like 80 points off on a guy, it may be nothing, but I,

But I like Gim at 140 to one. And I don't know. I have DraftKings up on my other screen, but I imagine he's what, 7.2 or something like that. Yeah, something like that. Oh, Gim wasn't on my radar, but this is a Gim course. I know he has course history, but it just makes it makes sense here.

I'm going to, I know we're running low on time, so I'm just going to name two guys here that I really, really love. And I'll let you just kind of then fire away because this is, you know, this is your bread and butter, but Nick Hardy trending really, really well. And we see Bronson Bergoon. We're going to see Bronson Bergoon's name on a leaderboard sometime this weekend. That's a,

Kind of a hot take. And then actually there's one other guy. Actually, I'm sorry. I'm going to cheat. I'm just going to run through. And Jim Herman are the other guys, Luke Donald maybe, but I really, really like Nick Hardy this week.

All right. I'll give you, I'll give you my last three. This is where we, we get a little weird, but I love Camille. The JGIS, he was my favorite six guy. Yeah. He was my favorite six K guy, Bermuda. He finished 35th there. I think this is a good spot for him. One thing that I thought was interesting too, is,

Same with Chris Kirk. If you look at short courses, if you put the filter on just short courses and take out the courses, the longer courses for Vujicic, him and Kirk are the biggest jumpers in my model. Vujicic goes from 88th all the way to 16th. So him and Kirk make the biggest leap. So

I actually think that this is a great spot for Vizagas and looking back at his best finishes six here last year, 11th at the Valspar 25th at the heritage. He's won the Wyndham. He's won the Honda runner up here in 2016. So I'm a big fan of him this week. And then another guy that, you know, I'm kind of taking the Gooch method with him is I'm just really high in Saheed Tagal's talent level. And I,

I'm going to stick with it, man. He's 6.6K and 200 to one. And I liked the course for him last week, maybe a little bit better than I liked this week. But I know that he knows how to play well in the wind because he went to Pepperdine. They're right on the Pacific Ocean. Oh, yeah.

And he just, you know, he gained 4.5 strokes on approach last week. I was tracking him, Rob, because I had him everywhere. He is a wild ride, man, but he throws darts and it's really just Sundays that keep killing him. He's had back-to-back tournaments where he shot like 78 on Sunday. And I don't know if that's fatigue or what, but both of those Sundays, I will throw out that

especially in, especially Bermuda, they were both really, really brutal conditions and he got the wrong side of the draw in Bermuda. And I was pretty impressed with how he performed in Houston last week. He just completely shot the bat on, on Sunday, but I think he's really talented and I'm going to continue to buy low on him. And then the last guy,

Davis Thompson's 290 to one and he's $6,400 in draft games. So he's a Georgia guy and there's a tournament called the Jones cup, which is an amateur tournament here. And he won the Jones cup here at this course in 2020. And he also finished 15th at the Jones cup here in 2018. He also finished fourth at the sec championship, which is played here in 2019. And he also finished 23rd here at the

the RSM as a 17 year old in 2019. He's played on the PGA tour this year too. Like he played the Sanderson and he finished 35th and gained 2.6 ball striking. He's good. He's a Georgia guy. He's a senior at Georgia. He's really good. And I don't know if you remember this, but he actually held the first round lead for a little bit at both the U S open at winged foot and at Detroit, uh,

Yeah, he, he had it. He got off to a really hot start at both those tournaments. So I'm not really a first round leader, but if you're into that thing, I think he's probably a great first round leader, but I may throw something on him at two 90 to one and use them at 6.4, but you look at it and he's a Georgia guy. Who's been, who's very familiar on this course. He finished 23rd in this tournament as a 17 year old in 2019, and then won the biggest amateur tournament at sea Island. So I,

Davis Thompson at 6,491 is probably my other favorite guy. I'll just mention this guy last because I think he's going to be popular and I'm not sure if I'm going to do it, but I found this interesting. So Matthew Neesmith, who I don't even really like as a player, I think people kind of geek out over his iron stats, but I don't think he's that good. But the Jones Cup that I'm talking about, I was looking into this

So they have the Jones Cup and the SEC Championship here, Rob. So look at what Nismith has done.

So Neath Smith finished second at the Jones Cup in 2016, fifth at the Jones Cup in 2015, fourth at the Jones Cup in 2013, 13th at the SEC Championship in 2016, won the SEC Championship here in 2015, 21st at the SEC Championship in 2014, 20th at the SEC Championship in 2013. And as a PGA Tour pro in two appearances here, he's finished 14th and 15th. So if you believe in course history, he's probably your guy.

I just got to say that is excellent information that you cannot get better than that. Oh, my God. And you convinced me. I've been a knee Smith hater because his ball striking stats have been great. You're like, gosh, I got a plan. He always lets you down. But that's a that's a very compelling case for the both those two guys.

I think I got everyone, man. That was like a race to the finish. I was like, I got, I told you, I was like, I haven't been super pleased with my performance the past couple of weeks. So I really kind of dug in this week and tried to kind of get back to my roots when I had a little bit more time before I started this new job. And I'm feeling really good about it this week, man. I think, I think we found some, some guys.

I think so. I'm really excited for this week. Now, is this your last show of the year before Kapalua? Okay, so I'm doing a majors preview with Nagels sometime in December. We're just going to do kind of a, it'll probably be pretty long and just us yelling at each other for a lot of it, but we're going to do like a

We're going to look at all of the majors. I'm actually not one of those guys, Rob, that likes to bet into those markets early. I like having all the information at my disposal the week of. And if I miss a number, I miss a number. But I know that's a very popular thing. And I think that would be kind of like an interesting show to do where I kind of give an early look at some... I'm going to do some research for it too and kind of like...

try and find some early stuff on these major championship courses that we have next year, and then kind of look at the odds boards and kind of discuss who maybe it would be beneficial to bet now and kind of give our early, early leans for that. And then I think Mayo mentioned something to me about like a fantasy golf draft, but that's it for me, man. I'm so excited for a little break from golf in December. What about you, man?

Well, yeah. So we have our last one tonight and yeah, maybe there might be something in between, but likely not. And I was just going to say, so if, you know, if those are that are stateside and if those are celebrating Thanksgiving, Andy, I just got to give you props. I told you on Twitter, you know how to treat people really well. You have a ton of class and you're, you're hyper-intelligent. You're very, very good at what you do. And so for the listeners show Andy, uh,

Give thanks, show them, show them their love and respect. You deserve it, man. And no wonder you're kind of doing so well. And I appreciate you. I'm throwing my thanks through the camera right now. Thanks for being on the show. Thanks for being you. But maybe we see together, we see together, or we spend some time together. I meet at Torrey kind of in late January, but I appreciate you having me on and appreciate, appreciate you, man. Rob, thank you so much, my friends. Happy Thanksgiving.

That's it for the show. Special thanks one more time to Rob. You can find him on Twitter at DFSRCGuilt. You can find me on Twitter at ADPWaxSports. Have a fantastic Thanksgiving, and I will be back in a couple of weeks. Cheers.

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