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Bringing on my guy, Matt Gannon, friend of mine. We've played golf together before. He does content for a bunch of places. A colleague over at Action Network. He does some stuff for Vince Eric's Golf as well. My guy's over at a...
Sports gambling podcast network. He's he does a bunch of stuff for them too. And we talk about a lot of things on this pod. The reasons why we loved colonial last week, but mainly a very thorough and full breakdown of the golf course this week in Hamilton, California.
Hamilton Golf Club. I've changed my opinion a little bit on this golf course since my last podcast, and we break down the entire betting board on this show as well as some insights into how we're looking at the golf course. You know, I don't.
I often do get to do like an hour on the betting board on this podcast feed just because I have so much other short form betting content where you can find out, you know, exactly who I'm on with all the videos I do for Odds Checker and Action Network. So it was kind of fun to do a longer form breakdown of the board and get to talk about
about some of the reasons why I really like these guys. I feel oddly amazing about this week, and I'm super excited about the guys I am on, which probably only ends in pain, but that's the best thing about Mondays. It's all hope. And I feel like abnormally confident this week about my opinions on this golf course and who's going to play well. So really informative pod. We hope you enjoy it. Let's bring on Matt.
All right. Matt Gannon is here. Action Network. Vincerix. How you been, buddy? We were just catching up a little bit off air. It's been a while. It's good to see you thriving, my friend. Yeah.
Yeah. So thank you for having me. First of all, Andy, it's been, it's been a good, good year. We're working full-time golf content, following in your footsteps, doing well. Thank you for having me on. It's we got to play golf again. Cause those few matches we've had were always fun. Good time with the, with the squad, the East coast capers, as some people called us on Twitter back in the day, but yeah, it's been love us or hate us. We're here. So thanks for having me. It's going to be good.
So are you back in, uh, you're back in Jersey now. So we actually should set that up because I will be in New York, uh, starting around June 18th. I'll be out there for, for the rest of the summer. Awesome. Yeah. So like half the people from Twitter know me as jurors, half the people know me as Matt. So like call me jurors on this podcast because I'm currently in New Jersey. Well, that's okay. So, so we should, so we should ask is, are you going through a bit of a rebranding? Like what, what,
what what do you what do you want to be referred to as jurors or because i was jurors for enough time because i didn't really have a twitter presence on myself i didn't even do anything on my own twitter and i was like i kind of want to do this as somewhat of a career and then i guess a little over a year ago i started doing my content as matt while still doing the the jurors betting stuff and uh
Yeah. So I'm still doing both of them. All my pick, I don't really release any picks on, on my real account. All my picks are on like the jurors way account, which like people say, but yeah. So like as Matt, I'm kind of just this guy who talks about things and knows information and then jurors, I'm like the tab. So it's like two sides. I go both ways.
Yeah, I, I, I, you've always been jurors to me, but I'm, I'm, I'm comfortable. I'm comfortable with the brand switch to Matt. I mean, I was telling you, I was listening to all the stuff you guys did over at Venserix for the PGA, which I thought I told you already, I thought was excellent. And you're Matt in the, you're Matt in the Venserix world.
which is in the vincerex world i'm mad he'll call me jurors every once in a while and like people in the discord people were like who who is yours why you keep saying this and then we had we explained it on one of the pods so so in uh in jersey this summer are you where are you kind of close to the city no i'm uh right outside seaside heights i'm like down the shore i live in tom's river so it's like
Not even 10 minutes from the beach. I'm right in the middle of the state on the shore. Okay. So Beth Page for you, if we were going to do one of our little Beth Page matches. It's hour 30. Hour 30. Okay. All right. All right. So we'll set that up. Until then.
I want to talk a little, did you catch much at colonial? We got a bunch to talk about with Canadian open this week at golf course. I've got some opinions on what'd you make of colonial? Did you get a chance to watch any of that over the weekend? Cause I have, I had some strong positive opinions on colonial this week. Yeah, I did too. It was, uh,
It was Davis Riley robbed us of a great finish. I know. Because the golf course was awesome. And Davis, just the world beater that he is, he ran away with it. But yeah, I thought like 99% of the field being single digits under par, you can't beat that. Like it was awesome. And props to Davis for taking off Scottie in the final group after he looked shaky on Saturday, did what he had to do, hit fairways on Sunday. But overall, fairly boring if we're being honest, but the golf course did a good job.
That's kind of the double-edged sword of a really good setup in terms of identifying the best golfer is that a lot of times, you think about the juxtaposition between Colonial and Valhalla. You get them back to back. What a choice.
Colonial is an excellent golf course in terms of identifying the best player this week and Valhalla is not. And the irony of like Valhalla being a very exciting finish and colonial not being that a player, a player separating. And I really understand that that's a double-edged sword, right? I think it's, I think you look at a golf course like colonial and you,
Why is it so easy for a player to separate at Colonial? Well, you have really firm greens. You have really firm small greens, a lot of wind, and a really low greens and regulation percentage, and a penalty for missing the greens, right? A real penalty. Like how many times were we watching Colonial over the weekend where it's like, oh, this guy's short-sighted. He's dead, right? So what a golf course like Colonial is going to do is if you're playing really bad golf,
Like you're just going to shoot a really bad score. Like you're not going to be able to save yourself with the putter. You're not going to be able to get up and down. It's going to create separation on the leaderboard. Like there's going to be a separation in scores in terms of the players that are playing great are going to shoot in the mid to high sixties. And the players that are playing bad are going to shoot 75, 76, 77. I had a guy shoot 81 on my draft Kings lineups on Sunday. So,
Whereas at a golf course like Valhalla, the greens and regulation percentage is higher. There's no real penalty for short-sighting yourself. I mean, how many times did you see a guy miss a green at Valhalla? And it's like, oh, this is an easy up and down. Right. And it just turns into how...
How many guys are going to be able to make the most 15 footers? And the way that you, the way that you separate yourself at Valhalla is like what Shane Lowry did when he shot 62, where he just made every single pot that he looked at. And you can't even really separate yourself that much because there's going to be a bunch of other guys that are shooting 65 and 65 and 66 as well. So it's kind of like this tough double-edged sword that I'm really, uh,
to and understanding to where it's like, I like to watch colonial better because that does the best job of separating the best golfer that week. But you're not always going to get the best entertainer.
entertainment product that way, because there's going to be so much separation on the leaderboard in terms of the guys that are playing well are going to separate. Like if you play bad at ball, Holla, and you missed a bunch of greens, you could still get up and down, make a bunch of 15 footers and walk away with the 67, where if you played bad at colonial, you're shooting 77. And so it's kind of this like interesting, uh,
quagmire that pro golf has where, you know, if you want an exciting bunched leaderboard,
You want to set your golf course up like Valhalla. I mean, Valhalla is going to produce golf courses like Valhalla and we see it in golf courses like Mexico and TPC, Craig Lanchik, all those tournament Amex, all those tournaments are a bunch of leaderboards. The reason why all those tournaments are a bunch of leaderboards is because the only way to separate yourself is with putting like the bad players aren't, are still going to shoot. Okay. Scores. So yeah,
It's kind of this, like I said, a little bit of a double-edged sword where it's almost like the best setups are going to create separation and the worst setups may end up being like a better entertainment product because they're going to be more conducive to a bunch later board.
Yeah, 100%. And we can appreciate both things. We can appreciate an entertaining finish, a fun golf tournament, fine. But also, Colonial was truthfully one player, one golfer away from having both the carnage and the one person separating himself in the end and having a bunch of leaderboard, which would have been the ultimate ultimatum of having both one player away. You know what I'm saying? 100%. And Matt, if you think about...
you, most of the us opens, like if you think about many of the most recent us opens and many of the most recent open championships, particularly when the open championships are firmer and windier. And a lot of the time at Augusta, when Augusta plays tougher, none of those tournaments are really bunch leaderboards. Like if you actually go through and look at the, the masters, like
a lot of the time people complain about, like it's actually pretty rare that you have a masters with a crazy bunch leaderboard. And the times that you do is the times when it's playing a little bit easier, like the tiger year in 2019. But you think about both of the Scotty years, I mean, both those Scotty years, the tournament was over by people complain on Sunday. It was boring. Exactly. Cause cause it's boring. And even like most of the U S opens, uh,
Like I think about that Bryson us open that he ended up winning by five at wind flood, even at LACC, the Wyndham Clark, where a macro I do dual, like Brian Harmon separating at Liverpool. Right. Like I think, I think every, you know, nobody's saying Liverpool is a bad golf course because Brian Harmon separate, but it's kind of what happens is like,
At these major championships outside of Valhalla, when you have a golf course that actually penalizes bad shots, it's a lot harder to get a bunch of
leaderboard that way. If you really think about it. And that's why I said, it's like, it felt like at the hall of this year, the PGA were like, we're just going to lean into the entertainment product and set it up in a way that's going to produce this dramatic finish. Whereas colonial was actually set up. Like you see more major championships in the past.
Yeah. Bad look for Valhalla having colonial being like so much shorter than Valhalla immediately week after. And I was like, what are we doing here? This is Valhalla supposed to be this big brutal golf course and we're at colonial and it's a real, real test. But yeah,
I'm not mad about Valhalla. It is what it is. It's not like we get every single major, every single PGA one at 20 plus under. If it happens once every few years, I can live with it. For me, being on the golf course, you knowing ball, we all knew this is exactly what was going to happen. It wasn't no surprise. The biggest mistake I had was...
Monday morning when I was out at Valhalla, Adam and I both, we looked at each other and we were like, are we kidding? This is a joke. And us not flying directly to Las Vegas and hammering the Vegas winning score prop was 10 and a half on Monday afternoon. I know. We should have done, put everything we had on that because we were like, it was almost like it was too obvious. We were like, there's no way this, are we this dumb? But exactly how we thought it would have worked out, everyone sitting in these middle to long irons, everyone's going to have 15 foot pots.
which led me on Xander Shroffley putting simple as that. Didn't rocket, didn't go crazy with that. And it's just, so I'm not mad about follow. Like it was what it was that we got what we expected, but it's,
Like, like you said, and like, we expect they're going to be a lot better going forward. Hopefully at least the U S opens, which I saw your tweet a few weeks ago. Yeah. And I also think that like the PGA knew what they were working with that week. Like I think tournament organizers got to that golf course and saw how soft it was. And we're like, listen, like,
We could talk some pins if we really wanted to. They didn't. Oh my God. And maybe, and maybe make this golf tournament be one at 16 under par as opposed to 20 under par. But I think they got to that golf tournament, particularly after they watched the scoring in round one and round two, because the scoring got even way easier over the weekend. And they're just like, you know what? Like, we're just going to lean into this and make it a shootout because on the weekends, I was, I was very confused about how they were going to do it.
They almost made an effort to not tuck the pins during a lot of the weekend. And, and we're, like I mentioned, just completely leaning into, we're just going to make this one a shootout. So I think they kind of did have a little bit more self-awareness of like, okay, this is the canvas that we're working with and there's really not much. Let's just go. Let's do it. Yeah. Let's just go. So, but I mean, I was, I was so captivated by colonial and, and I mean, I'm such a Gill fan.
I'm such a Gil hand Stan. Oh, I know you are. He's I, he's my guy. I mean, I, I genuinely think that I've,
I've gotten, I've been fortunate enough to play a lot of Gil, Gil Hans golf courses recently. I just got back from stream song earlier this year in Florida and played his black course at stream song. I thought that those were some of the best greens I've played in recent memory. He designed LACC South, which is the little brother golf course to LACC. I think it is
the most fun golf course in Southern California. Like I think LAC South is that a hot take? Is that a hot take? It's, it's one of my favorite golf courses in the country and LACC North. Of course, I've ranted and raved about that already. That's a top five golf course in the country for me as well. Rustic Canyon, another Gil Hans design in Southern California that I think is, you know, one of the best public golf courses from a strategic standpoint in terms of public golf that I've ever played. Like I, I think this guy truly can't miss right now.
And I thought that the subtlety that he brought to some, some of the par threes that he changed, uh, the par three, I want to say it was the eighth hole bringing that raising the green a little bit to the left and break a lot of the subtle stuff that he did. And the player said the exact same thing, like listening to Keegan's interview after where he talked about how most of the time when a architect comes in and restores it, the golf course, he's, he's very skeptical and, and,
All of the players were talking about this week, how the changes were an absolute a plus. So going forward with colonial, I don't think it's going to be that brutal in future years because, uh, new greens tend to be super, super firm at the beginning. So those greens are going to settle a little bit. They were like rock hard this year, but that's like sneakily turning into one of my favorite PGA tour golf courses. Yeah.
I mean, I love Kelowna. How could you be upset with a golf course, one of the shorter venues on tour and posting scores like it did? Like, that's beautiful. It holds up year after year. Usually a better finish, but
It is what it is. It was great golf. It was fun. I wish it wasn't on like Memorial day weekend. It is always on Memorial day weekend. Right. So I wish, cause I'm, people are, people are busy. Cause it shouldn't, it should get more eyes. That's, if it was on a regular weekend, people would watch it more and maybe appreciate it more, but it's usually on this weekend where people are doing stuff with their families and not watching, but it was a good, a very good test. Yeah. I would expect the ratings to be pretty bad, but I mean, that's okay. That's what I said. Like I acknowledge, um,
I have a lot of self-awareness about the fact that the things that I look for in a golf course is different than the things that the majority of the viewing public looks for in a golf course. And for me watching colonial, that is like a plus stuff for me. Like that is the type of golf that I tune in to see like high leverage golf shots, uh,
Where there is a strong penalty for misses and you are seeing players going completely in both directions where good shots are rewarded and poor shots are penalized. And a lot of the time you're going to end up with.
some of those leaderboards that you see at a firm masters or a firm open championship or a firm us open where it's like the best players completely separate themselves and i don't know some of the best you're right we were completely robbed of like a a great duel because you think about some of the best majors that we've had over the last decade a lot of those majors are
when it's two or three guys separating themselves from the rest of the pack. Right. And Scotty just didn't play well this weekend. Like I don't, we can transition to talking about that, but Scotty just didn't play. I thought it was such a perfect golf course for Scotty. Like I thought those conditions were exactly what you want to see for Scotty, but were you surprised at all by, by his performance and does it change the way you feel about him waiting into, you know, Pinehurst coming up right around the corner? No, it,
It would have been really, like you said, it would have been really awesome to see like maybe a C-, a C- game from Scottie versus all those other guys in those conditions. It would have been such a fun watch. But no, I'm not, I have no beef with Scottie's performance. I actually, in my, with my Vincerex guys, full fate of Scottie, I thought it was with
the him being in the pm wave with him being in jail with him being having a new child a lot going on in his life whatever i'm gonna go on the limb and it looked friday morning we were looking really good and then it all changed so i know scotty clearly did not have any of his best stuff and if you watch you can visually see he was not himself and he still finished second so like yeah that goes to show you like i he he will be fine we'll monitor the situation going forward i'm
i'm not saying he's gonna win memorial i don't see him finishing worse than t4 and then from there we're off to the races at pioneers yeah and i think that that um him still finishing second is is actually kind of a testament incredible the testament to the golf course too because like for those reasons like i was very anti-scotty at valhalla because
I said, it's like, okay, the, the way for Scotty to separate himself at Valhalla is he's going to need to putt well, like this is going to need to be a week where Scotty gains over three strokes putting, if he's going to win this tournament by three or four strokes, like he's not going to be able to do what he did at the masters at a golf course, like Valhalla and impossible mathematically impossible, literally. And, and, and even with Scotty, like
seeming like he had his B minus stuff, he separated himself from like every player in the field out outside of Davis Riley. So I know it, it just didn't, it didn't, he didn't seem like he totally had his best stuff on Sunday. His Sunday performance surprised me a little bit. I mean, he still, you know, beat the field average by quite a bit on Sunday. He just didn't beat Davis Riley, but, uh,
i feel like going into pinehurst man it is still all systems go for me i mean a firm golf course with heavily undulated greens um that is going to be a test of approach play and craft and guile and creativity around the greens with you
you know, bouncy surfaces where balls are going all over the place, bouncing off those greens into interesting spots where you're not going to know whether you need to hit a low one or a high one or a long black putt. Like that is the golf course that I would design for Scotty Sheffield skill set and in Pinehurst. And I think we got like,
a bit of a sneak preview in that in colonial in terms of like, okay, who are the types of players that are going to separate when you get super rock hard, firm greens. And so I'm still full systems ago for Scotty. And I got to say like more call will honestly might be shedding a
the house cat label. Like he's done a lot of showing up on in, in, in some diff he sees at the masters. And did you listen to his interview after colonial? I didn't know. Did he, did he talk about it? Because that was the second time this year where more Kala has had one of his best performances of the year. One being the masters and two being colonial on really firm golf courses with wind and,
And, and rock hard greens. His short game is how, how did more color turn into like the best around the green player in the world?
I kept calling him Colin Crenshaw all about hollow week. And when he was in his interview, he was talking about how early season didn't have his best stuff. And he was just trying so hard to be perfect and get back to his five yard fade or whatever. And then recently it's what he's, if you look at his numbers, which I'm sure, you know, he's been playing the results are there, but the iron numbers are still not great outside of this recent performance at colonial. And he spoke about like, I'm tired of trying to be perfect. I'm just putting my head down and trying to post up scores. And like,
Colin has two major championships. Say whatever you want about them. He has heart. He has dog. And he's almost winning the Masters, almost winning at Valhalla without his best game. Like that is just pure dog. And he's doing it in a different way than he's normally doing it. So that just goes to show the testament of golfer that Colin Moore Cowan is. And now he's starting to feel something, at least with the irons looking like numbers are showing better things.
I'm saying he's going to be the most tipped at Colonial by infinity. I mean, Memorial by infinity. And it just seems like he's on the right path. But I feel like if you get 18-1 at Memorial, everyone's going to bet it.
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I'm really glad you shared that quote because that actually makes a lot of sense to me in terms of why he's starting to play better at some of these harder golf courses. If you think about Valhalla and maybe some of the other golf courses that Collins played well in the past, it's track man golf, right? It's turn your brain off. It's turn your brain off golf. And Colonial and Augusta is...
not golf that you can practice on the range. Like that is find a way to get the ball in the hole. It's like, are you an artist or are you a painter? Right. It's, it's like find a way to get the ball in the hole at all costs. And so Colin talking about, um,
doing that more, you know, and playing golf and instead of hitting track man golf shots, it, it, him having that mindset makes sense of why he would, uh, he would start to have a lot more success at some of these tougher golf courses. So, um, okay. Any closing thoughts on colonial before we dive into Canada?
Davis Riley, he earned it. Also, before we finish on that, did you see that Davis Riley was minus? I mean, Scottie Shepard was minus 800 versus Davis Riley in a fourth round matchup. And obviously Scottie lost. Davis Riley was plus 500 with a tie would have pushed the matchup minus 800 versus a plus 500. I've never seen anything like that. I have to share that. It was incredible.
Yeah. To be honest with you, I don't even know if I would have bet the plus 500 on Davis Riley heading into that round. No. I was looking. I went on Drakken and I was like, give me a minus 250 on Scottie. I'll lay the due. I'll do it. I don't care. And good thing I saw what I saw because he lost. I just had to share that. It was insane. Okay. Canada this week.
I've talked about this golf course a bit. It changed. We saw it in 2019. We've had a couple of Canadian opens here, 2019, 2012, I think 2006, 2002. We've had a bit of a renovation and from what we saw in 2019 by Martin Ebert, he's the guy that's worked on a lot of the open championship venues recently.
Some weather, you know, the golf course is closed, uh, tomorrow because of heavy rainfall. We're going to see a very wet receptive golf course. Um, some thick, lush rough from what I'm hearing as well. Give me some, uh, overarching takes on your opinion of Hamilton and what you're looking for this week before we dive into the odds board.
Yeah. I think it's a, there's very few golfers in the field who can even attempt to do what Rory McIlroy did. Yeah. Take a ton of drivers and try to bomb and gouge it. I mean, Rory was on another level. He was hitting fairways too. So very few golfers are going to even try that, which will probably get you in the field. The guys who will try that attempt, that strategy. I think everyone's going to be leaning in on hitting fairways, focusing on that precise iron plate, small greens, and you got to putt well, I think you're gonna have to make a ton of putts because these greens are going to be tricky. Um,
So like we saw the leaderboard in 2019, it was Rory McIlroy and a ton of plotters. So yeah, everyone's live this week. Yes. Yeah. Kerr had one web Simpson, uh, Kuchar, all those guys, you know, I think I've changed my opinion a little bit on this golf course since my Sunday breakdown, just in terms of, um,
The amount of rain that, that the golf course is going to say. So I was thinking about, okay, if this golf course is even wetter than I had expected it to be, what is that going to do now?
The fairways are going to be easier to hit because the ball is just going to stop. But also the penalty for missing fairways is going to be the starker because, you know, when you have a wet golf course, you've got thicker rough. And that was kind of the problem at Valhalla, right? It's like the rough actually got pretty thick at Valhalla, but the fairways were so wide that it was so many guys were hitting fairways. It was hard to miss fairways. And these fairways are,
I think are narrow enough that guys are going to miss, miss them. I think the issue is that the golf course is still so short that a lot of players are just going to club down and hit the fairway and not really fuck around with that wet, lush, rough. And a lot of guys are just going to be taking shorter clubs off the tee into the fairways. And it's, it's,
all just going to be about short to middle iron play and putting. I thought at the beginning of this golf course gets a little bit firm, like the separation will be created in terms of the players that can hit the fairway versus can't hit the fairway. I think with the thicker rough, like, and the fact that the golf course is so short, everybody's just going to club down and try and find the fairway. And it's all going to come down to short to middle iron play and putting. Does that, does that track for you?
Yeah, I'm totally with you there. This might be one of the only times in his career that a wet golf course might hurt Rory McIlroy's chances. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. So let's talk about him. He's four to one plus 350 at some places, four to one. There's some noise going on with Rory. People are tracking his jet. You got New York Post writing 800 words on
This Bally onus thing that, you know, hasn't been confirmed at all, but I mean, it's just, there's, there's noise around the Rory stuff. There's stuff, there's stuff going on, which Rory is no stranger to, right? Like he played some of this statistically the best golf of his entire career when he was the shadow commissioner of the PGA tour. I'm not equating, you know, struggles in his personal life to struggles in his business life and professional life.
But yet again, we have some noise surrounding Rory McIlroy on a golf course that he won by seven strokes out last year. So what do you make of Rory this week?
Yeah, maybe he's got his driver back. He's driving it exceptionally hot. Rory is a good driver. Yeah, but at the end of the day, if I lose to a plus 350 Rory McIlroy for his third Canadian Open, I will be able to sleep at night. I will not be upset if it'd be whatever. But no, I do not think it's going to...
be his week truthfully i just simply i don't think he's gonna win three out of four canadian opens and the way the golf course is going to play this year i don't i just think it opens the field to more to more players so yeah that being said like uh we saw in houston houston was a good golf course from scottie sheffler but it was a golf course that opened the door for a few more players and that turned out to be the case with one guy um and that was peak scotty so now rory is
Playing on this golf course when people are going to be playing out of the fairway, that similar spot becomes a mid to short iron fest, got a whole ton of putts. Why would I place a plus 350? Why would I place a plus 350 with three other guys like some people do? A whole other podcast for that. Completely agree with you. I actually think that my...
Lack of interest in Rory is, is golf course related. And that's an incredibly weird thing to say on a golf course that he won at by seven strokes last time. But I think, I think the thing that people might miss with Rory's 2019 when at Hamilton is that he putted.
insanely well. Um, he put it insanely well. He gained, he gained over five and a half strokes putting in his win, uh, in 2019 as well. So I just don't think that this is the golf course where you want to pay up for somebody that you're going to need to rely so much on the putter. I don't think that Rory, as you put so eloquently is going to be able to separate, uh,
with his driver as much as people think that he's going to be able to separate with his driver. He's going to have to rely on his putter and his iron. So it's a pass for Rory as me. Let's move down. I'm going to give you this. I'm going to go. There are one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. I want to talk about this range of seven, the range of Tommy to Sam Burns, who are all between 16 to one and 28 to one. You got
Tommy Fleetwood, Sahitha Ghala, Shane Lowry, Alex Noren, Cameron Young, Corey Connors, Sam Burns. I kind of have takes on all of them, but let's break it down and kind of go rapid fire on each of those guys. Tommy Fleetwood, 16 to 1.
I think if you bet Tommy Fleetwood 16 to one should be investigated for some jail time. I'll leave it at that. Yeah. I'm with you. I have no problem. But I think it's a good golf course for him. I think Tommy Fleetwood is the type of guy that hits a lot of fairways and can get hot with his putter. I think that if Tommy Fleetwood beats me at 16 to one, that's a lot of good golf courses for Tommy Fleetwood. And I'll pass at 16 to one. Right. And I'm willing to live in that world where he beats me there. So hit 20.
becoming a more consistent golfer by the week. I don't hate it, but also 20 to one. I mean, he has one at this number before, but there was no Rory McIlroy in the field. I don't love it that the fairways are going to be a little bit more. I mean, the rough is going to be a little bit more wet. I like him when you can rip a ton more drivers probably will pass, but I don't think it's the worst bet on the board. I still don't know if he's a good enough short iron player to win a golf tournament like this. I know he's with you there. Yeah. He's, he's a really good putter and they're,
There are some similarities between here and Silverado. Like I hit him 25 to one at Silverado. I don't think that's like an insane comp.
But 20 to one on Sahith. I like to bet Sahith in the forties, fifties and sixties. Shane Lowry, 22 to one coming off the best putting performance of his career. Oh, by the way, he putted phenomenally in that T2 finish at Hamilton at 2019. I think you're buying top of the market here on, on Shane Lowry to keep some crazy putting magic alive, which I don't know if I'm ready to count on. Yeah.
Yeah, I could see him being one of the most popular outright picks this week coming off of that Valhalla performance where he didn't hit his irons great and he hit his putter great in the last two starts. It wasn't great with the irons. So you're buying it. You see him have, if you're a regular fan, you see him have a great performance at Valhalla. You look at the 2019 leaderboard. Oh, this guy finished second. Why wouldn't I bet this 30 to one? I can see him having a,
less than a week. At the end of the day, it is a decent golf course for Shane, Shane Lowry in a ship field, but I don't trust that this putting success and this recent poor iron play. So I'm going to fade Shane Lowry for sure. I'm with you. I don't think that he's going to be able to keep the putting magic alive. If you look at some of his long-term splits, Alex Noren, 25 to one, um,
You know, you're buying him at the top of the market. He's playing phenomenal golf right now. He's got eight top 20 finishes in a row. Your thoughts on 25 to one Alex Noren. He does not have the ability to peak in a single category to win a golf tournament. He has all the top 20 category. He's like a 45 year old. Just gaining across the board, locked for top 20. No beef with Alex Noren, but not the win. I agree with you. I think that.
It's a good golf course for him. I do trust him to make enough putts inside 15 feet to contend. With that being said, Alex Norton's never won a PGA tour event in his career. And something smells a little bit off when you get a guy. It was like that Doug Gim week at the Valspar. Like, oh, Doug. And I know Alex Norton. That was great. I remember that. Yeah. I know Alex Norton's a little bit
golfer than, than Doug Gim, but Oh, Alex Noren has eight top 20 finishes in a row and he's 25 to one. Now, no reason to not just assume that he's going to keep finishing top 20 every single week. Yeah, maybe, or he just reverts to, uh,
what he was. Maybe he's finally due for that letdown. So yeah, no thanks for me on Alex Norton, 20, uh, 25 to one Cameron young, 25 to one. We can talk about Cameron young and Corey Connors, 25 to one in the same category, because I have the same answer for both of them. I don't think either of them can make enough pots to win this tournament.
Yeah, I definitely don't think Corey Connors can make enough putts, especially with that Canada pressure on him. He's going to be the guy this week. And Cam Young coming off of the worst approach performance of his PGA Tour career. But I'm going to say I'm a Cam Young guy as gross as it is. I think it's close, Andy. I really do. So you're in on Cam this week?
I'm leaning there just because I think this field, I think it's like one or two guys sub 30 to one and then just go to the hundreds and just sprinkle names. Because once we get to this 50s, 60s range, all these guys have 0% more win equity than the hundreds. So if I have to pick anyone sub 30, we just saw Davis Riley beat Scottie. We just saw Vander Shroffley win a major. Cam Young has been closer than anyone. One of the most talented, no one's going to argue his talent.
I feel like he has multiple paths. If the bombing gouge is in play, sure. If not, he played it well on club down forces before, and I like him to bounce back with the iron, but I can't, I'm not going to sell you on cameo. Like it's just, it's just me being me. Hey man, it's a safe space. I got a bet coming up that I'm pretty embarrassed about myself. I actually do want to say that, uh,
I actually really think that Corey Connors should have a really high floor on this golf course because he has a fly for sure. Yeah. He's developed into like the best iron player in this field. And if you're telling me that Corey Connors is just going to hit a bunch of three woods off the tee and throw darts,
He's going to make a few of those 15-footers. I think he's actually a pretty sound DFS play just based on – I don't think he's going to win, but I think based on his floor. And then that takes me to Sam Burns, who is my winner this week. I mean, I think that this is –
I think this is the setup that you want to play Sam Burns on. The, the iron numbers are actually a lot better than his results would suggest. He's starting to hit his irons a lot better. He is irons pretty well at the Holland. Just couldn't make a putt. And, and,
Sam Burns and these, you know, club down off the tee, maybe off the tee distance or accuracy doesn't even matter that much. And it's just about how many putts can you make inside 15 feet? That is Sam Burns to me. I think him and Sahith are,
Maybe Norrin too, but I think him, Sahith and Norrin are the best pound for pound putters in this top range. And Sam Burns is the one who wins. So that's where I'll go. Yeah. What are some golf courses you have to club down here and there? Got to hit fairways. Innisbrook Colonial, Sam Burns. And like this man's, what's his number? 35, 30, 28 in that range? Man, I got him. So I woke up, I wake up a little bit later on the West Coast and sometimes miss the best numbers.
They have him low, man. Like they, he's 28 to one. I only had access to, I, yeah, I only had access to a 25 and was fine with that. Um, I got some pretty good numbers on some other guys, but he's won more times than anyone else. Like he has, he's a, he's a winner. Like you,
He has dog. I'm with you there. I haven't made any bets yet, but I can see myself going to one of the Burns-Young duo for me. Yeah, so he's 25-28 pretty much across the board. Okay, this next tier, why don't we break this up into...
I'm going to give you like groups of four and you're going to tell me your favorite in this four. Okay. Okay. Adam Scott, Tom Kim, Matt McNeely, Keith Mitchell. Is there all between 30 and 40? I'll go. I'll go TK. I'll go Tom Kim. Just,
Iron numbers aren't great. They're not great, but he looked like he's feeling more comfortable. The results are getting a tad better. And what's big for me on Tom Kim is he's finally gaining strokes on, on, off the tee. So him losing strokes off the tee for being such a short hitter, he has no chance to gain strokes on approach because he's just a short hitter and he's infinity back in the fairway. Now that he's starting to gain strokes off the tee, I think those iron numbers will start to revert back to what they usually are being. He's fricking 15 years old and he's already won three times. Like,
I'm down on a short positional course. He's got three ones on short courses. Yeah. And he can, he can, he's the type of guy that can really get hot inside 15 feet as well. I actually like all four of these guys. I'm going to hit you with the bat that I'm embarrassed about. I actually haven't made the bet yet. Cause I think the number is going to keep rising, but my numbers are in love with Adam Scott this week. Um, it's,
Is he cut? Can he win again on the PGA tour? Maybe, maybe that's, that's, that's very much in play. We've seen a bunch of olds have a lot of success at this golf course in the past. I think the guy has got one more in him. His irons were awesome.
unbelievable at colonial. He hit his irons incredibly well at colonial. Um, and Adam Scott is like in this stage of his career turned into a really good putter. Like he's had a lot of spike ability on the greens. He's had a ton of success on bat, POA golf courses. He putted incredibly well at colonial. Again, he has had a lot of success popping at golf courses like
Sedgefield, which is like club down off the tee accuracy, undulating greens, Tom Kim. There you go. Adam Scott lost in a playoff there. Um, I just, it's kind of a numbers model play for me. I do think that there's, I think it is a sharp play. Like I think that like, why is he 25 to one on bet rivers? Why is Adam Scott who hasn't won since Riviera in 2019, 25 to one on bet rivers, uh,
I think there's something in the water with Adam Scott this week. And it's, it's a pure model play for me. My numbers absolutely love him. They love his recent approach for him. They love his putting inside 15 feet. They love his performance on the comp courses. Watch out for him this week. I I'm calling my shot on this one. I think Adam Scott's going to, I think he's going to do some things this week in Canada. Yeah. He was popular last week too. And I mean, he finished two 12, five result. Um, his iron numbers have been solid all year. I just,
He hasn't been in contention once. He's been a generational backdoor T12 guy. I know. But like, it's no, at the end of the day, like no one is good. Like no, there's no bad picks. No one, everyone sucks. No one's good. Yeah.
Like every golfer, I get so frustrated. At least guys, what are we, what are we doing here? But yeah. What, what number you got? 35 on him? Yeah. I haven't bet it yet. Cause I think there's like, who else is betting Adam Scott at 35 to one? Like, no, and he was bet last week. So I think they're going to, I think people is going to also fun fact. I'm not sure if we knew this this year, Adam and I have been tracking the numbers of winners, uh,
And only one time the entire year has the opening number gotten better in the week. And that person has won. And it was Scottie Scheffler plus 450 to plus 400 or plus 500 to plus 450 at the Masters. Every single time, every single winner this year has either drifted from their opening number or stayed at their opening number. Crazy. We've been tracking the entire year.
Yeah, that is interesting. Yeah. Kind of goes against like the want to jump on the steam, the steam chasing on a lot of these guys. I can't say that like totally shocks me in terms of Adam Scott.
I think maybe I get a 40, but you're right. I think he's a sharp play this week. He's 25-1 at Bet Rivers. I think I'd be okay swallowing a 35. I'm confused and also not confused about why Matt McNeely is 35-1. I'm not going to bet that, but...
If you know, these bucks are looking at the golf course, the way that I'm looking at the golf course, Matt McNeely might be pound for pound, the best putter inside 15 feet in this entire field. And if we, except for last week, Oh my God, Sunday was awesome. Although if we think that this call, you know, if we think that this golf course is going to
I emphasize that. I actually do think there's a really good course fit for Mav. I just don't know if he can hit his irons close enough, consistently enough. Not a bet for me at 35 to one, but I actually like him this week. I think it's a really good golf course for him.
Yeah, I'm not sure if you saw this with Maverick Neely. You know his style of play. He's usually a great driver, an elite putter. He has gained on approach seven out of seven times at Colonial, the only course in his entire PGA Tour career where he's played more than three times. Pebble confidence. We know he's auto at Pebble. Yeah, and he's also been trending a little bit with the Irons, but...
I don't know how we can pull the trigger on a 35 to one math. You know, the field kind of sucks. I think, I think he's a better DFS play than bet in my opinion. Agreed. I mean, he's, he's expensive and he's expensive, but I don't think anyone's playing that. I don't think anyone's playing. Right. But you look at like, what are maps? Best courses, Silverado, Pebble Beach, YLAI, TPC Sawgrass. He finished night that 10th and 11th at Mayakoba 10th at the Shriners, another 12th at Mayakoba 11th,
These are all golf courses with like really small greens. Yeah. Golf courses with really small greens and golf courses where you have to putt inside 15 feet. So it's very odd. Cause like maybe with this small green, just dial in his tight lines. Cause yeah. Cause it's not in general a great iron. No, he's not. Yeah.
We'll definitely monitor that this week. See how many designs. Okay. Let's do a broader tier here. Let's do like now anyone's fair game between 40 and a hundred. So I'll let you, I'll let you weed off in this, in this mid tier. Talk about some of the guys in the, you know, 40 to 100 range that you like, and then we'll, we'll finish off with some, some bombs.
Yeah, this 42-100 reign is fairly bleak. I don't love a lot of these guys. If I had to pick one, it'd probably be, I don't mind Eric Van Rooyen, honestly. A guy that knows how to win. A guy that's not scared of easy conditions. He can make a ton of birdies, and he'll hit fairways. I'm out on all these Canadians in this range. But at the end of the day, I don't really see myself getting to him or a lot of guys in this range. But I like EVR probably if I had to pick one.
Interesting. I, you know, two guys I want to mention. Okay. Number one, which I don't think he totally fits my narrative this week, but I bet him before I really changed my opinion about putting mattering even more than I initially thought. I just have to be there for Aaron Rye because I have been on this journey with this guy and he's been amazing.
He's been great for me. I mean, he's been great as like, you know, a make the cut guy at tournaments like the PGA championship. He's had some great finishes for me, like as a core play at Byron Nelson. He was a core play for me last weekend. Colonial. He's been striking the ball. Like he's hitting the ball. Good. He's hitting the ball. Unbelievably. He shot 17 under last year at Oakdale at the Canadian open. I think that's another, I mean, I still think all things considered, like I still, I still
Brian just texted me. The winning score prop is 19.5. I think it's a good number that I'd take the under with. I think I agree with you. You mean like eight, like 18, that range. Yeah. I think if you're, if you're asking me right now on Monday evening, what my winning score is, it's tough because this is a harder golf course than Oakdale and Oakdale was one at 17 under par. So I think
When you get to a golf course, that's in a different setting. None. Keep in mind, none of these guys are going to play the golf course on Tuesday. So none of these guys are going to have that much experience on the golf course. So even if, even though it's short, even though you have really receptive greens, I mean, the other misnomer with Rory in 2019 is,
you know, that second place was minus 15. Okay. Rory shot. I think there's only eight guys, double digits under par. I think it's around eight, which is crazy. I'm with you. And I listen, I always air on the side in modern pro golf with the way that they try and set up these golf courses to air on the side of easiness. But yeah,
Like if you're in between, just go with what you think is going to be easier, but it's a, it's a harder golf course than Oakdale. And they made this golf course harder than 2019. Like, I think I'd still stick with 17 or 18 under.
I think I probably would. I don't know if the 19.5 is a bat. Like, I don't, I don't think I'm caught. I could easily see like some guy winning, shooting 20 under and winning by four. Like that's kind of what would have happened in, in 2019. Right. Like Rory shot a 22 under, and then second place was 15 under. So I say maybe that happens again where like winter 20 under second place, 15 under, but yeah,
I think like 17 or 18 would be what I feel the most comfortable with. Yeah. It's not something I'd die on a hill and run to bed, but I'm, I'm with you there. It's probably in that 16 to 18 range. 16 to 19. Yeah. I think I agree with you. Um, so yeah, anyway, right. Uh, he's playing such great golf and I, I think that, you know, he's proven he's had success in Canada as well. The irons have been unbelievable too. And he does an excellent job of finding the fairways, uh,
The guy that I – the Canadian that I am in on because I do think unquantifiable narrative alert, of course, but the President's Cup thing is I think pretty real, like playing in Canada. Is Mike Weir in the field this week? I don't know if he's in the field. There is. He is. Yeah, he's in the field this week. So –
you know, he dies on these guys. He needs to see, right. These, these bubble guys like Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin and Taylor Pendrith. I don't know if we're going to see a Canadian win back to back years. I would be pretty shocked if we don't get like a, a Canadian in contention. I,
I actually would be fairly shocked. I think one of these, some of these guys are going to shrink under the pressure, but one of these guys is going to step up. And I think my best bet to do that based on course fit and recent form, like I do not like the way that Nick Taylor is playing right now would be Adam Hadwin.
You're with Adam Haddon. I like Stenson. If I'm picking one Canadian, I like Stenson. He's actually my second favorite Canadian. My first favorite Canadian is more of a long shot. Ben Silverman. I think he's the under the radar guy. He's got zero pressure. I like that too.
I like, I like silver Minto, by the way, as like a DFS play. I like the call on silver Minto. Yeah. He's a short, short course guy. He can finish T20 here in 2019. He's got experience. And I just struggled to find like these guys.
There's probably two Canadians that are locked. And then the 3-4-5 is up for grabs. And these guys aren't world beaters. So much pressure. I never want that. The same reason I was so adamant on being out on Tom Hoagie last week. This guy's a mid-tier player, home game. Why is he getting media? He never gets media. All these Canadians are going to get media. I have so much pressure. That's a lot on their plate. Even McCoy Connors, a lot on his plate. So I'm out on these Canadians. I could take a flyer on...
Silverman or or Stenson but I'd rather just like play him in DFS or throw like a first-round thing I really don't see Canadian winning
Okay. Let's talk a little bit. Let's finish up with some long shots farther down the board. Um, I've got a couple guys I got my eye on. I think there's some like actually really good bats above a hundred to one. Uh, if you view this golf courses, one that can be won by a guy that is able to separate with his putter, but any moves that you've made above 100 this week? No, I I'm, I'm leaning towards what I just said was silver man. I don't hate
Seamus power around. I saw him a hundred and I think he's down to 90 now. Favorite bet on the board. 110 to one. I think Seamus power is so live this week. Why is he 110 to one? Like this man, you see his, his iron numbers in at a hollow career, the best iron week of his career, Seamus power. And he won on a short course, uh,
And he's playing great golf. I don't get this number. I'm with you, Seamus. Seamus Power, 110-1. Probably my favorite bet on the board. Official pick of the pod. Official pick of the pod. He gained 6.9 on approach at the Wells Fargo. Also finished 12th at the Heritage. So he's starting to play a lot, a lot better golf. Gained over eight strikes, ball striking at the Wells Fargo. If you filter out, like I...
I went through all of the comparative courses that I think are going to have a lot of similarities and Seamus power is top five in this field over the last few years. Um, he's been great at the John Deere. He's been great at the rocket mortgage, um,
Travelers as well. Heritage, Bermuda, all these tracks. Sony Open, RSM. So Seamus Power, 110 to 1. That's one of my favorite plays. Anyone else? I got one or two guys that I really like too that I'll mention. Yeah, I got one more that I probably won't get to, but did you see, I'm not sure if you saw my nugget on David Lipsky last week. It's a Kyle Hewitt favorite this week as well. Again, like 10 on Approach at Colonial.
The single best iron week of anyone on the PGA Tour this year is David Lipski at Colonial. Just one of the most hilarious stats I've ever came across. So yeah, David Lipski probably, I mean, if he gets half of that, he can finish inside the T10. So that'd be lovely. But he's like 350 to one. If you want a guy who hit his iron better than Scottie Shrugler, Tony Finau, David Lipski is your guy. Yeah.
I'm at 150 to one. I may have to add that. Okay. Two quick guys. I'm going to throw out there. I think, you know, just the inverse in terms of the way that everybody's buying high on, uh, on Alex Noren right now, I'm going to buy low on Eric Cole. Um, Eric Cole's a hundred. Wow. Remember when we were betting Eric Cole at not us specifically, but I was, yeah. Remember when people were betting Eric Cole at 18 to one to win the Honda? Yeah.
absurd. 25-1, 18-1 every single week. And Eric Cole was the next young buck and finally reverting back to, that's a bold take of you, but you're buying him at a low for sure. He wouldn't be this number if he was in any good form. So I'm with you. Same thing on Nick Liner. Right. Well, I think with Cole, like I look at, he missed a cut at Colonial last week, but he gained strokes in both
ball striking categories. So he's starting to hit his, he's starting to hit his irons a little bit better after he hit rock bottom at quail hollow. But if you look at his long-term wedge numbers, really, really good inside 150 yards, he is one of the better putters in this field inside 15 feet. He's actually had a lot of success on bat, bat POA. You look at some of the golf courses that he's played his best golf on to like the
He was six that Oakdale last year, 24th at the travelers and his only appearance 14th at the wind up in his only appearance. So I, if I'm kind of starting to lean towards, like, I actually don't think off the T is going to matter that much at all. And Eric Cole is just going to find the fairway the same way that everyone else is with a club down.
And it's all going to be about approach play and putting like, that's kind of the ideal setup that I want for Eric Cole. And I don't know if he's going to win the tournament at a hundred to one. I think he's a super sharp DFS play though. Yeah. Fun fact about Eric Cole hitting rock bottom at Quail Hollow on Sunday, leading up to Quail Hollow. So the week before I saw him at a third eye blind concert that Sunday night, I was like, dude,
I didn't want to cramp his style because he was just with his people. And I was like, he's probably flying to Charlotte tomorrow morning. And I feel like he just knew that he was going to finish last at Quail Hollow. I was like, I'm going to go collect the paycheck. But this is Eric Cole right here because he lives in Delray. So he was close. I was like, this is hilarious. Dude, I'm a huge Third Eye Bly fan.
I didn't know that you were a third eye blind guy. I'm a huge, my favorite is, I'm a big crystal baller guy. That's my favorite third eye. Good one.
good one yes crystal baller and honestly just just the hits play the hits i'm not playing yeah they were they was at a music festival and like i i liked them a lot but i'm not a i'm not a truther i'm more of like a pop punk pop punk emo guy no i know you're into the yeah you like the uh what's the what's the band you're always repping
My favorite band is Pierce the Veil. That's it. That's it. Yep. Yep. That's the guy I've seen a bunch of times. Yeah. I'm more into the like, I'm more into the nostalgic, like all of the music that we used to play at our college frat parties, the Blink-182s, the Third Eye Boys. Yeah. Yeah. I've seen Blink-182 in less than a month. So I'm excited for that. Where at? They're in City Fields.
Are tickets still available? When is it? Yeah. Uh, July 21st. So not a month, two months, July 21st city field. Come with me. Let's do it, dude. I may join you on that. I, I fucking love like one 82. It's going to be a sick show.
And they're not expensive either. We gotta talk about that. - Okay, we'll talk about that off air. Okay, the last guy that I wanna mention, shout out Huey Mack, the big ticket Bryce Garnett, 175 to one. You wanna talk about a guy that hits fairways, is a great wedge player, can spike with his putter and has won a golf tournament this year. I give you the big ticket Bryce Garnett insert that Kevin Garnett meme when he was on the Timberwolves.
It's my guy. It's a good thing. This isn't a resort course because Bryce Garnett would be minus 200 to win. So look out, look out. All right. So official pick to win. I'm going Sammy B who's your, who's your guy this week. Cam Young. Let's go Cam Young. And then collab pick gotta be Seamus. Collab pick Seamus. All right, Matt. And what you got to plug. So you do some action network stuff, then Ben Sarek's what else you got going on this week?
SGPN, YouTube, then Sarek's Action Network. All my stuff's on Twitter. Just follow me. DM me if you have any questions. Always down in the chat. And just a ball knower who loves to talk about ball. Nothing crazy, but we'll give you my honest input about golf courses, about players, about anything. So, yeah, hit me up anytime. Follow me. Awesome. Thanks so much, buddy. We'll do it again soon, and we'll play some golf this summer. Hell, yeah. Thanks for having me.
All right, that's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Matt. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. Special thanks to Bettsburg's Golf in the Rabbit Hole. And we will be back on this podcast feed next week, breaking down the memorial. So enjoy the golf this week. Best of luck with your bets. And we will see you next time. Cheers.
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