Major Over/Unders with Twitterless Steve
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All right, welcome in. I am recording this intro on Friday morning. Inside Golf Podcast, by the way. My name is Andy Lack. It's Friday of the PGA Championship for me right now. By the time you're listening to this podcast, it's probably sometime during Colonial Week. And I was not able to do any Colonial content this week because...

I'm in New York. My brother's graduating college. I've got a ton of family stuff going on. So this is an episode that I pre-recorded, Twitterless Steve, of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, where Steve and I take what we believe to be the top 15 players in the world at this moment in time and debate how many majors we

they finish their career with. I think it's a really fun episode. And if you enjoy it, we will continue to do more stuff like this in the future. Before we bring on Steve, we're presented as always by rickrungood.com. Like I said, no colonial content for me on this podcast feed. But if you do want all my thoughts on colonial, you can still head over to rickrungood.com slash Andy, because I did do a full episode

Course breakdown over there. And I also will be doing a full Wednesday DraftKings article over there as well. So I do have some thoughts on Colonial and you can find all of those on rickrungood.com slash Andy. Make sure when you sign up, use Andy for that promo code. Want to give a special thanks as well to all the people that supported my stuff PGA Championship Week.

continue to be humbled by how this podcast is growing. And I genuinely have a ton of gratitude for everyone that took the time to leave a review, share the show, retweet the show, reach out. It all means a ton to me. And I haven't gone through all of them yet. This is going to be my

project on the plane tomorrow, but I will be in touch shortly with the winner of that giveaway. And we'll absolutely run it back for the U S open in a couple of weeks. I thought the draft King pod, uh, with Kobe works really well. And I know he's not a, I know he's not a content guy, but I, I thought it was pretty much a natural at this. Uh, and it seemed like people really enjoyed us together as well. So, uh,

We will absolutely run that back for the U S open, which I can't believe how soon that is by the way. But anyway, thanks again for all to all for a very fun week at Southern Hills. It's bad timing because I wish I was able to do like a, a full recap show because I've got a ton of thoughts on this golf course. I think it,

as we sit here on Friday morning has delivered already on so many levels. But your younger brother only graduates college once, hopefully. So I wanted to be there for that one. All right, let's bring on Twitter with Steve. All right, Twitter with Steve is here. Golf gambling podcast on the sports gambling podcast network. You know, Steve, when I conceived of this idea,

I knew that you were the perfect man for the job because I knew that you were probably the only other person on the face of the planet that had some takes on PGA Frisco, the site of the 2027 PGA Championship.

You know, I was very happy that Google Earth actually had updated images because I've been looking at that site for the last couple of years and just following the construction and to see like the little tiny bulldozers on one end of the property. And then like I flipped to like another day, it's at the other, you know, start seeing some greens constructed. But yeah, it was very appreciated that you forced me to look at the 2027 PGA and see how that's going to match up for everybody and how we think they're going to do there.

Well, let me set the stage for everyone before we dive into Frisco. We are recording this on Wednesday, May 11th, the Wednesday right before the Byron Nelson starts. The reason we're doing this is because the week after the PGA Championship, my brother's graduating Princeton, right? I'm proud as fuck for him, man. He's got incredible grades there too. And so I just...

Moral of the story, I want to be there. The graduation is Tuesday morning. There's parties and receptions and dinners that I have to go to, basically all next Sunday through Wednesday. So I'm not going to be able to do any colonial content pretty much at all. So I'm releasing this bottle episode, which I'll explain a little bit more in a second.

We're probably going to release it like Tuesday or Wednesday of Colonial Week. So, Steve, I'm already setting us up for a situation where we look stupid because we are recording this the week before a major and releasing it the week after a major. Exactly. I mean, first of all, I want to say congratulations to Tom Hoagie for winning the PGA next week.

I mean, just out of nowhere, Cinderella story. I hope so. Well, I guess some of the guys that I went over with, it would help. And some of the guys that I went under with, maybe helps the case a little bit more. But what me and Steve are going to do here basically is, I took the 15 most... They're not the top 15 players in the official world golf ranking. They're very close to it. But I took, in my opinion...

the 15 most interesting, compelling players in golf right now. And I set an over-under on how many majors they're going to finish their career with. And I did not tell Steve any of the over-unders, by the way. So he's coming in blind. And so basically what me and Steve are going to do is we're going to go through these 15 golfers.

There's a couple more rapid fire ones at the end that we can talk about. But we're going to go through these 15 golfers and we're going to debate on whether they are over or under the major total that I set for them. So I'm factoring in what they already have, Steve. So for example, like,

DJ, if he's over 3.5, that means he needs to win two more because he already has two. That doesn't mean that he needs to win four more to go over the total. Does that make sense? No, that makes perfect sense. I actually have on my chart right here how much they got and my anticipated total. So yes, we are absolutely on the same page as far as what the expectations are for this podcast. So very quickly, before we dive into the players'

Do you want to talk about some of the venues coming up real quickly? Like, how did you prepare for this at all, if any? Yeah, I mean, so, I mean, obviously, I think you got to factor in what sort of agronomy these golf courses are going to be. I think you also need to factor in, too, as far as, like, a lot of these golf courses, especially the PGAs and the U.S. Open setups, like...

Like they're undergoing recent renovations. Now I don't know the full details of what it is. I mean, the one thing I do appreciate is that it does seem like we are canceling Reese Jones and Tom Fazio. A lot of these recent renovations. I mean, Gil Hans is just taking over everything. I think he's got, he's,

eight courses out of everything I saw between the PG and us, he's got a hand in eight of them. I know Andrew green also has congressional and Oak Hill, which is two miles from my house. Yeah. So I'm very familiar with the work that'd be doing Oak Hill. And I, from what I've seen, uh,

doing a very, very good job of racing what Tom Fazio had done to the place over the years. You know, we still got a Jack Nicklaus in there. We still have, you know, two Tom Fazios that haven't had any work yet, but you know, overall I thought it was a good, it's like a nice transition from like the old guard into like this new style of like, you know, architecture that it's not even really new. Like Gil Hansen's like,

He's going back basically to do a lot of the restoration stuff. And it's nice. And it's going to be nice seeing these golf courses, you know, and, you know, as we've seen with Southern Hills next week that, you know, we're talking about before we see it, but like how we've seen these golf courses before and how these new guys have put a new spin on and how that might change how they play.

Next six U.S. Open, Steve, Brookline, LACC, which is right down the road for me. One of the best golf courses I've ever played in my life. Pinehurst No. 2, Oakmont, Shinnecock, Pebble Beach. So I've played four of those. Gil Hans did LA too. He did an incredible job. Hans has got two in a row right now with Southern Hills and Brookline. And then he's got LACC coming up.

What else am I missing? He's done some, I'm just looking at US Opens, but he's done- So he's also done work at Eronimink. That's right, which is 2026 PGA. Yep. He's done Baltusrol, which is 2029. Which I heard was fantastic. Yep. So he recently did Wingfoot. So we just saw that. That's going to be coming up again, I think in 2028. And then he's got Oakland Hills.

So, which is I think way out like 2033 so that's probably not even like factoring, because I think a lot of these guys are going to be about almost 40 by then. So, but yeah I mean like it's just, you know, he's got a hand in a lot of this stuff and it's nice seeing.

You know, just some, a little bit of a new direction. It's going to be exciting to see what he does. Cause I think only on the PGA tour, the only things we've really seen with Gil hands is TPC Boston, I think. Right. Um, and then. I'm pretty sure he's done some stuff at playing field and Ridgewood, you know, those, they used to host the, um,

The, what was it? Barclays or something like that? Yeah, or whatever it was. Yeah, it was a famous cup event. Yeah. Who's designing? So those were the US Open ones that we just went through. PGA, Southern Hills in a week, Oak Hill 2023, which I've also played. I played Oak Hill about...

four or five years ago? Has more work been done even since then? Oh, absolutely. Yeah. So basically what they did was, I mean, it's actually probably completely different than what you saw it. So what they ended up doing was they restored one of the old, or basically they restored one of the old par threes where it used to be an old practice screen tucked right by the entrance.

So they ended up basically doing a lot of work, renovated the greens, you know, renovated all the bunkers. So that's a new par three. That's going to be right after the long par five hole number four. Then they ended up combining holes five and six. Basically, they took away that par three that has the Allen's Creek running by the left. And then that's the new green for the fifth.

The 15th, there used to be the pond right there. That's all filled. It's short par three, right? Yeah. That's all filled in with grass now. So they redid all the greens. And I mean, that was the biggest thing they did was to work with the greens. All the greens now have square edges just over the years, just because of like, you know, with

mowing patterns, everything, the greens just shrunk. They lost pin positions. They were circular. All the greens now have been restored. So there's no pin business. All the bunkers have been restored too. Something's been shifted around. They cut down a lot of trees too. And I'm very interested in seeing when I go to the property next year, as far as like how it's changed, as far as like, because it feels very claustrophobic when you play Oak Hill, but they took out a lot of trees to help with agronomy growth. But also I'm wondering if that

maybe you can be a little more aggressive off the tee. So a lot, it's definitely changed a lot since then. Oh, and they also, the greens were bent POA back then. Now it's all back grass. Yeah. So yeah, it's a lot of work and I think they've done a lot, a pretty good job with it.

You know what's interesting about Oak Hill? Not to get too... Here we are already. Not to get too into the weeds. We're going to get to the players in a second. But the one thing that I liked about Oak Hill as a major venue is it's not a long golf course. And I think one of...

One of the trends that I've started to notice at major championships, even with Augusta a little bit, I noticed this for the first time that I was doing Augusta where I was like, wow, I really am starting to see something here. And especially with the PGA courses too, like with

I kind of dove into Southern Hills today for the first time in pretty much since looking at it since September or since last December. And the one thing that I noticed is like, man, I really think length is just going to be a thing at major championships for the foreseeable future. From what I've heard, the rumblings on PGA Frisco, it's long as hell. And I just think...

a lot of these courses for these major championships coming up, you have your exceptions in pebble, but LACC is going to be super long. Pinehurst is super long. Oakmont's over 75. Now Shinnecock's over 74 Southern Hills. When I talked about it on, um,

When I talked about it on that December preview major show, I thought that it was going to play around like 73, 7,400 yards, be a par 71. When they played it in the Tiger year in 07, it was 7,100 yards. And I was looking at it today, it's over 7,500 yards, right? So, you know, one thing that I'd be curious to see, and I was kind of using that as a

a way to kind of help me with some of these players is I just think that length at major championships is a trend that we are going to continue to see for the foreseeable future. And I think one of the things that makes a place like Oak Hill and Pebble Beach and Olympic Club as well,

kind of great is that they find a way to be really, really difficult courses without being overly long. So I'm curious. I hope they don't beef up Oak Hill too much, if that makes sense. No, I think they lengthened it a little bit, but still going to play about 7,300 yards. It's not an overwhelming length at all. I mean, I kind of saw, I agree with you. I mean, length is always a big factor. I think some of these courses though that

might play a little firmer still kind of benefits right the shorter hitter because they will get it be able to get it out a little farther and if they just hit the ball straight it's going to keep rolling especially like a pinehurst

you know, something like that. So, but I think you're, you're, you nailed it on the head. I think the PGA is definitely undergoing a shift right now as far as like that, like for years, the U S open was like, all right, the big bad bomber. Yeah. And now the PGA just with some of those venues, other than Oak Hill and Olympic club,

Those are the ones where now it's like, okay, 7,400, 7,500. Valhalla, Quail Hollow, Baltus Rolls. Yeah, just like thick, rough, long. And those ones were like, okay, your favorite and the bomber. Whereas some of these US open venues coming up and I mean-

You know, I mean, you got Brookline. That might be a little of a shorter quarter. Yeah, it will be. Yep. Yep. I mean, like I know LA country abuse. I mean, you know, much better than me, but if it plays firm in June and I don't know, like are the fairways pretty wide there. So, and maybe that could give, I don't know, a shorter hitter a little bit more of a chance. I think Pinehurst still can. Oakmont, I think it's still going to be a bomber track wing foot still too, but like,

It seems like there's maybe a little bit like, I felt like when I was looking at some guys, like some of them were the shorter-ish guys or like the guys who just scramble really well, like do all that stuff. I tended to like them more at US Opens and then some of the big bombers now like them more at the PGA. So it'll be interesting to see kind of like, because I'm sure we're probably going to go over this and kind of banter around like, okay, where do you think this guy's going to win? It'll be interesting to see what you think and then kind of compare it like, you know, to what I'm thinking too. Last quick thing I want to comment on

As we should comment on the Open, we've got St. Andrews this year, Royal Liverpool, Royal Troon, Muirfield, St. Andrews again in 2026, Turnberry, and then Royal Letham and St. Anne's. The thing about the Open that it's interesting, we talk about trends, about where we think we see the PGA going. I think you're right. I think you nailed it. I think the PGA is making a shift to becoming closer to a U.S. Open in terms of the scoring. Like I said, I dove into Southern Hills today.

I think it's going to be brutal. I mean, I remember when I played Southern Hills a year and a half ago, the caddy said that he thought it was going to play over par. And I said, I mean, maybe, but I think the PGA has kind of started to undergo this shift where it's going to start playing closer to a U.S. Open. Kia, well, I think two or three players were under par last year. Wouldn't be shocked at all if Southern Hills was similar.

I think the open is in a weird spot because I think the open, it's always the tournament that is most reliant on the elements. And you don't see those course changes like Gil Hance coming in and doing a bunch of things to change these courses. I mean, they've tried it.

with St. Andrews, but after a certain point, like there's only so much you can do. Like they have a couple of teas now that are at St. Andrews that are in like a cow pasture, right? Like after a certain extent with some of these older courses in Scotland, like,

you can't really do too much to change them. And if you did too much to change them, like you'd really be screwing with the integrity of the course, which brings me back to my hottest take of the year that the open championship should always been played, should always be played with hickories. I like it. But, but, you know, I, I think, um,

I think the opens in a weird spot because like we said, I think the PGA could be shifting to much harder scoring similar to the U S open. And I think the open championship is the one that maybe could be going in the other direction. If we don't get wind, does that make sense? No, that makes sense. And honestly, for the last couple of years, it seems like the RNA has been just resigned with, okay, this is our golf course and whatever it is, it is like, um,

I mean, there have been times like even through history too, like, I mean, a Royal Birkdale would be pretty easy. And then I've also seen times when it was like plus four, you know, and I think they're fine with that. I think they're fine with that role. But you're right though. I think another reason why too is like, they can't really do anything is because I like, you know, the properties they built on are hundreds and hundreds of years old. There's not much they can really do. And,

And these also are popular tourist destination places to go play. And like, they can't afford to just close down for weeks on end and do like major renovations to the greens or add bunkers and like move T-Bot. They can't simply do it because they're going to lose out on revenue. Like say there's like a pebble beach too. Like,

Like that's also, I think like another one going back to it, like that probably needs something done, but what are they going to do? Like they're going to lose out. Like at the end of the day, it's about making money and they can't just close the course for like, you know, six months and lose on that. So, but I'm okay with it. Like I think with the open, like I, I, I just appreciate having it come to my television every single year just because it's something different. And you know, I, if it's,

15 under, 30 under, plus five. I'm just appreciating that. I'm just watching it. I think the RNA is doing a right decision, just letting the courses play out of the play, trying not to tinker too much. We criticize the USGA for trying to do that all the time. I like how they're just saying, okay, if 35 under wins St. Andrews, so be it.

Right. We are so deprived of like true links golf as fans that you kind of think, okay, you know, if once every two or three years we can really get some weather, I'll take it. Right. Um, I, I think it's going to be interesting with St. Andrews this year because I think, um,

without weather, like you said, I could see some of these bigger guys bombing it. But that's a conversation for a different day. Let's get into the players, Steve. I'm going to start us off. Here's the first guy. And I started off with some of the more established players, and then I wanted to work my way down to some of the younger players. Dustin Johnson is the first guy that I want to talk about. Over under majors, 2.5. He's 37 years old. He's got two.

2016 US Open at Oakmont, 2020 Masters. So Steve, we'll start with you. Does DJ win another major?

I think he does. I mean, I think the only thing you got to be concerned with as far as like, does he just go up and just quit after like when he's 42 or 43 and just say, okay, I'm just going to hang out in my yacht and just, you know, say lovey. But I think what I like about DJ, so I went over on him. I think he's going to get at least one. I think he can win another masters. I think PG and us open, just looking at some of those venues. I don't like the more recent ones coming up for him. So yeah,

Maybe those are probably not a good fit. Gets his second crack at Oakmont. He does, but by then he's going to be over 40. But I think what I like about DJ, though, is that I feel like his game is going to age well because his swing is very long. And you see some guys with really long swings, like a Phil Nicholson. Yeah, he's competitive until he's 50. And I think with DJ as well, like...

Like I used to just associate with just all right, bomb or ball striker, not really great putter, but he has added a lot of those kinds of, you know, old man tricks to his game is his age. He's a much better putter and much better scramble right now. Like it almost makes me think that like maybe the open might be in play as he goes down the line. So I think he's going to get one before he says it's all done, you know, when he's all done.

Yes. So I went over to a couple of points on DJ. First of all, I like him. I like him at Southern Hills next week. Yeah. And I like him at St. Andrews too. He's been sneaky good in British open. So he's made 10 of 12 cuts in British opens, six top 25s, four top tens, a top five and a runner up.

He's been good in majors. He's got a 42% major top 10 percentage over the course of his career. That's up there. The best modern major players, it's been DJ, it's been Rory, it's been Brooks. Those are the guys that are above 40%. The only other guys under a more limited sample size are Zander and Finau and Morikawa through nine starts and Sheffar through nine-ish starts. But I think the thing about DJ is...

You know, I think there's this, I've already started to hear it a little bit. Like, are we sure DJ's that guy anymore? Is DJ kind of on the back end of his career now? It's been, I think, 16 months since his last win. And we're recording this a week before the Byron Nelson thing.

The narrative right now is like, God, it's been forever since JT's won. It's been longer for DJ, right? But I think maybe some people are starting to think he's just entering a different stage of his career. The thing I'll say about DJ, I agree with all of your points about the fluidity of his swing. The one thing I'll add is I have one or two people that one of my buddies from college is friends with him. They spearfish or whatever. I think one of...

He's friends with a lot of famous people. So he's Rob Lowe's kid, but him and DJ like spear fish together all the time. Anyway, he was telling me, you know, one of the misconceptions I think about, um, about DJ is that he doesn't care. And I, I, from everything that I've heard, DJ works his ass off. The only difference is, um,

He, he has a very, how would I, how do I put this in the best way? His attitude is very unique on the PGA tour, the way that he approaches golf. It's not his entire life. You know, I've heard players talk about like Homa was talking about in a recent interview, how you watch DJ hit a shot, like he left one in the bunker and it didn't change anything. It didn't change his demeanor at all. Like he didn't,

He just doesn't get flustered at all. And I don't think he puts as much pressure on himself, maybe as say a Rory. And I think that's why he's had a lot of consistency in major championships. I think he's underachieved overall in major championships, like at the beginning of his career. If you told me DJ finishes his career with two majors, I think that's low.

but I think his game is still going to age well. And I don't think he's somebody that is just going to go completely silent into the night. I don't think he's going to win two or three majors in his forties, but I think he'll finish with three. Yeah, no, I think my number was exactly three and kind of like what you just said with that attitude, like, like,

like when I'm trying to think about guys who can win the open, you know, a guy who kind of has like a dory brain a little bit, just let things go and just says, okay, well, no, cause you get bad breaks at an open, just the ball bounces funny, ends up funny in a bunker. And he was like, all right, I'm just going to go hit it and then move on. And, you know, like, it seems like every time I go to an open, we kind of cross some certain guys off and DJ is not what I'm going to be crossing off, you know, going forward. And, and,

you know, I think like, it's always dangerous to speculate, you know, be armchair psychiatrist, but like, I remember when he won the masters and just, I was kind of unexpectedly surprised, like how emotional he got. Right. I feel like a Claret jug might be something he would want to do. Like, like the five, one of the final things that like kind of check off for him is like winning that. So I think he can do it, but I think he's got one more in him and I think, all right, so we're starting off on the same page. That's good.

Rory McIlroy, he's 33 years old. He's won four majors. He's won the 2011 US Open at Congressional, the 2012 PGA at Kiowa, 2014 Open Championship at Liverpool, 2014 PGA at Valhalla. It's been almost eight years since Rory has won a major. So he currently has four. I put his over-under at 5.5. Where are you going?

So I'm going to go under. Okay. I think he's got one left and it's not like, it's not necessarily like, I don't think any of these golf courses fit. I mean, obviously we have Quail Hollow and we have Val Hollow in there. I think, I mean, all of these courses, I feel like he's a threat. And I just think that like, just watching Rory over the last few years and kind of following what he's been doing off the course and what he's been saying. And I'm not sure how much, I mean, it's,

Obviously he wants to win. Obviously he wants to do well, but like he's got, you know, he's on the player's advisory council now, or he was doing that thing with like Carson Daly, like trying to get, what was it like golf now or something, whatever that was got off the ground and just, I'm not sure how much, uh,

He just is like that killer anymore that we kind of saw in 2014, except for the Masters. I think that is something he obviously wants to win. And I think he probably will get one of those. But other than that, I just, I'm not quite sure.

If he's got any more, especially just like with everybody else kind of coming up and coming, like there's so many good guys. And I mean, we're going to go through a lot of this list and like, you know, it's, it's not everybody can win like a bunch, you know? And so I'm going to go under on him. I think it, I think he can probably pick off a masters. So you think it's, that was the next question I was going to ask you. Do you think it is the masters? I think at some point it will be.

I just, I, he just played so well there. I think what happened this year too, he kind of like, it was with the good ending. He was very happy. Like, right. Yeah. I think at some point it will happen just because it's been so good there, but otherwise I think he's going to end up with five. And I think that's it. I went under two Steve, you know, I think a lot with Rory about that. Patrick Harrington quote about the loss of innocence. Uh,

Um, and I'm with you. I worry that sometimes it feels like Rory is overthinking at this point. He's too far in his head. We talked about, you know, earlier he chased distance for a while and it kind of screwed him up for like a full six months. He lost like half a year of just playing kind of mediocre golf by losing his swing. He's gone through three or four coaching changes in the last couple of years. And yet at the same time, um,

I still think he's the most talented player of this generation. I still think he's the most talented. If we're just talking pure talent, I think he's the most, in terms of God-given gifts, since Tiger, I think it's Rory. 33, he's not young, right? And a lot of the younger guys that we're going to talk about later, I think we're both all pretty high on.

I think he gets one more too. I'm not sold that it's a master's though. I think he's dangerous at Southern Hills. I was just recency bias, but I was just looking into that today. And I think there are a lot of good PGA setups coming for him.

If he goes over, Steve, I think the roadmap for him to go over is multiple more PGAs. Because you look at where the PGA is headed with Valhalla and Quail Hollow and PGA Frisco and Baltusroll and high ball flights and distance off the tee and carry distance.

It's Rory. So I went under two, but I think the pathway for him is a figuring out the mental side a little bit more because I really like the

I really like a lot of these golf courses for him going forward. If the PGA is kind of turning into what we think it's turning into. Yeah. I mean, I see basically four in a row right now with Valhollock, well hollow, Ron and bank, PJ Frisco right there. I think all of those would be really good Rory tracks for him. And then, you know, Southern Hills. I mean, I know we're talking about this after the fact, but he's also on my radar for that. So, you know, I still call that five of six, um,

You know, I mean, he has a really good open championship track record too. He does. You know, he's, he's always seems like he's the mix. Maybe you can pick up one of those, but I just, I think I'm just with you. Like I, I'm not sure how much of like a bunch of a priority, like everything kind of is for him right now. Just as far as like his stay at the game with everything. And you know, it's that mental side, what you just talked about. So, and you're right. It's 33 and the window probably for him is, I don't know, eight years maybe. So I don't know.

I think one's probably a good number as far as what his future major is going to be. So yeah, I think we're on the same page again with that. I think it's easy to just pick overs for every single one. But this is why I wanted to have you on because it's like, listen...

We're going to get into a situation where when it's all said and done, where there's going to be four or five, maybe six players on this list where we're like, geez, that guy ended up with only this many majors. There's just too many good players now. So I like how you're being kind of tempered with me. I think of the 15 guys, I went nine unders and six overs. And I know you couldn't.

you couldn't do that because you didn't know the over-unders. But let's bring us to our next one. Jordan Spieth, he's 28 years old. He has three major wins. He's won the 2015 Masters, the 2015 US Open at Chambers Bay, the 2017 Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. By the way, Steve, do you want me to go first some of these times? I feel like I'm always having you lead off. Should we switch off? Yeah, why don't you lead off on this one? Okay, we'll switch off. So...

I went over under 4.5 on Spieth, which would mean he needs to win two more. And I went under. I, you know, he's got more. I think it's safe to say that Spieth has more prime years than a Rory or a DJ coming up. He's only 28 years old. So you probably have to imagine he's still got a decade left of prime golf.

I think he's always going to be a threat at the Masters, and I think he's always going to be a threat at the British. I don't like the way that the PGA is trending for him, and I don't like him at US Opens. I thought what happened at Chambers Bay, that course played really firm and fast. I don't think we're going to get venues like that. I think his best shot is probably at a Brookline, but I don't know if...

If I'm under the belief that distance is just going to become increasingly difficult,

popular in the game of golf. And even some of these open venues where if we don't get wind, they're going to be a little bit more defenseless. I don't know if the roadmap for Spieth as he gets older into his late thirties is going to be as easy as it would be for a Brooks or a DJ or a Rory. Um, I think Spieth gets one more gun to my head.

I think he wins another Masters, but if you told me it was an Open, I would accept that too. And I could imagine him struggling in some PGAs and some US Opens coming up. What about you? Okay. So we have our first disagreement. Okay. Make the case. So I went over, and I think it's because I think Spieth actually, as I kind of look at the schedule of everything, I think Spieth actually has the most opportunities of anybody. Mm-hmm.

Cause I actually kind of like some of these us open setups for him. Okay. So I like, so I like Brookline for him. I think we're both on the same page. Um, I mean, I haven't dove too much into LA country club yet. You are obviously have more familiarity with it. Um,

Boracal is going to get that one. Yeah. Well, that's one of the ones I was thinking about. So let me ask you a question about this too. So what's the agronomy on LA Country Club? Because I couldn't find, I had conflicting info when I tried looking at that. Is it Bermuda? No, it's Poa. It's Poa.

It's Poa? Isn't it Poa Bat? Then that's completely different from what I saw. There's no way it's Bermuda. I saw Bermuda. I saw Bent. So I don't know. Maybe just no one has good info on this. Okay, well, part of the reason is that LA Country Club's members would like you to think that they don't exist. So I would imagine that it's been pretty tough to find info on it online. You know, they've been asking LA Country Club for US Opens for months.

50 years and this is the first time that they were finally like all right fine we'll do it yeah god that's gonna be a nightmare trying to get intel on that before a tournament so I mean I got you because you played it though yeah you're probably gonna have an edge on everybody yeah so all right so I mean so but

pinehurst though i because i remember the 2014 that was very firm and fast right that one and just with how some of the greens are like a lot of shaved down areas like around the green game is going to be really important there plus that's also one where there's no rough anymore so it can even if it rolls into you know the junk it still can be a little bit of a luck box as far as okay like you might be completely fine there or you're behind like a palmetto bush or something like

that. So, you know, I, I think that might be okay for him to, you know, I mean, the Oakmont Shinnecock, and then he got pebbled, which, you know, he's could be live at and then wing foot, like, you know, those ones I don't really feel are speed ones. I agree with you on the PGA. I don't like him at pretty much any of those unless until Olympic club. Okay. Well, maybe.

Eh, maybe it depends. I think, wow, they're going to set it up, but possibly, but I think Augusta, he'll always be live. I think any open championship, he'll be live. And those are also the two of them where as a guy ages, he still can be competitive. So I think his window, as far as getting more than two in this scenario is

is pretty long because i think he's just going to be very competitive at those places for a while i like my concern though with him is just like we've seen over the last couple years with speed he's such a goddamn tinkerer that he hasn't been able to figure out how to get good balance as far as like okay he's going to work on his ball string and then his putting goes to hell and then he tries to get the putting back and the ball string goes to hell it's like like can we just kind of sync everything up right now like right now it seems like with speed

We're back to where we were in 2018, where he had the complete putting yips, but he was hitting the ball great. So he's got to match that up better, but I think he can do it ultimately. And I think he can actually get to at least five. So I'm going to take over on that one.

You bring up a really good point. I think why I was leaning more towards under, and I've just basically come to terms with the fact that I need to throw the eye test out the window with Spieth. I thought he looked terrible leading up to Heritage, and he ended up winning that tournament. The thing that's interesting with Spieth, of all the 15 golfers on this list,

Steve, if you were to tell me, pick one guy that's not in the top 100 in the world in a year from now, I would maybe pick Spieth. I think there's a universe where, I mean, we've seen it before, right? Like that's my concern with Spieth is like, I think that

a guy like Rory, I may, maybe Bryson's the right answer to that question. Um, but a guy like Rory or DJ, you know, their floor is so inherently high and we've seen Spieth just like really lose it, like really, really lose it before. I'm not saying I think that's going to happen. I'm just saying of the 15 guys, I think he is the most volatile where, um,

There's probably going to be someone on this list, Steve, that we look back in 10 years time and we're like, man, I can't believe we talked about that guy. He's just completely irrelevant right now. You know what I mean? Can you imagine somebody coming up to us and in our mentions about this podcast over on Jordan's feed in 10 years? Somebody's going to do that.

But I, you know, I, I, that's a very good point. The really bad ending for Spieth with all this tinkering is he becomes Padraig Harrington where you just tinker and tinker and tinker. And then all of a sudden he's doing happy Gilmore drives, just trying to figure things out.

that's definitely in the range of scenarios for him, but just taking things as is like, even like in the darkest of times, Spieth finished third at that page. Right. Right. Like that was awful. So if he can still do that and just have the duct tape together at some point, I think he's just going to peak for a couple of years. And like there, I think he's got a lot of chances, especially because he just at,

the masters and the open, I think he's always going to be live no matter really what form he's coming in with. Very fair. Let's talk about Brooks Koepka. He's 32 years old. He's got four majors. U.S. Open at Aaron Hills, 2017. U.S. Open at Shinnecock, 2018. PGA at Bellarive, 2018. 2019 PGA at Bethpage. So he's got four majors. I put the over-under at 5.5. Okay. Lead us off. All right.

This is going to be my first hot take. Okay. Well, I mean, I had a couple. You think he's cooked, don't you? I think, I don't think he's going to win another major. Wow. I think he's had so many injuries.

And just at, and he's 32 at some point, like, like that just takes a toll. And we're going to talk about another guy who I'm going to be concerned is going to have the same thing happen to him too. I mean, how many times has he had his knee scoped or a hip injury or the wrist injury? He's had a lot of issues over the last couple of years, uh,

And I mean, not to mention too, like it just seems like on Sundays that majors and less companies, he's had opportunities and like, you know, you can make the argument that yeah, you're a volume shooter, the more opportunities you're going to get. Um,

He just hasn't looked like that same guy on Sundays. And I think between that and just the injuries are piling up. Like, again, like I know we're recording this Byron Nelson week. Yeah. We don't know what's going to happen, but he WD'd weirdly. I didn't see an explanation why. I don't know. It might be over for him.

As far as just like the stuff just kind of accumulates with his body and then he just can't do what he used to do. So I'm going to take the under on it. You make a compelling case, Steve. I think I went, this was the one, I mean, we got some hard ones coming up. I found this one really challenging.

Let me make the case for over. I have written down over and yeah, I liked what you were talking about, about the injuries. I probably underrated that. By the way, quick question. What do you think about his swing? Like, I feel like he has a really like short, compact swing. Do you view that as like a negative or a positive? Like it's hard to tell whether he's kind of exerting himself so much. He is, he's so balanced, if that makes sense.

I don't know about that. I mean, it's definitely, it's, it's a powerful swing. I mean, he swings really down on the ball too. I don't know if that really, maybe that's why he's had some wrist injuries. Cause he's just hitting the turf so hard. I don't know. I mean, I, I, I haven't really thought about it from that respect as far as like, if his swing is causing this stuff, it just, it might be, it could be. I mean, I know Brandel has been, you know, talking about how he's just like too big and like too bulked up. I mean, I'm not going down that street, but yeah,

Yeah. I just, I never really considered the swing form. Maybe I'll have to go to YouTube and look for it. No, it's just a theory that you have me thinking about with the injuries and you're so right about like what swings are going to age well and what swings aren't. I think that's something you have to consider with this conversation. The case for over is armchair psychologist, right? I think that he cares so much about these four tournaments and,

and maybe there's a universe kind of similar to the stage that tiger is in right now where his entire schedule i mean you could already make the argument it's been this way for the past five years with them but his entire schedule is centered around peaking for these four tournaments like even more exaggerated you can say like a lot of guys like a justin thomas is andrew shoffley like

all of those guys are at the stage of their career where they have self-awareness on this stuff and they know it's about major championships they still fucking like give their all and have a full pga tour schedule and like want to rack up wins on the pga tour right i could see brooks like i think he's already gotten there right but i could see brooks even if um

Even if the health continues to be hit or miss with him, I mean, we see... I'm done with the Tiger thing. I think Tiger could play...

four times a year for the next decade right so he's 32 years old do we have the cart before the horse like a little bit like he's gonna have a lot of opportunity like he could win all these pga championships you know we talk about the open too i think he's a great fit at st andrews everyone was talking about brooks um you know at the masters this year and all these different things and i was like man if you give me one for brooks i actually think it would be uh

And I do think there's some recency bias at play. He's been terrible. He just withdrew from the Byron Nelson. Going to be really interesting to see what happens at Southern Hills. Like he might be a super low ownership guy. We may look back and feel really stupid about this or, you know, the opposite. We'll see. But I think the best case for Brooks is that he just takes his theory on these tournaments and revs it up into overachieving

overdrive over the next decade plus. And he is just a guy, like you look at it, 52% major top 10 percentage over a large sample size. He's always there, even when he's not playing well. His form heading into last PGA was worse than it is this year, and he almost won. He was in the final group. So I think there's a universe where

These are just weeks, and we even see a more extreme version of it play out over the next couple of years. Maybe there's a scenario where Brooks wins two more majors and no other PGA Tour events. It's not inconceivable.

No, it isn't. I mean, that's a good take as far as maybe he just starts, like, even taking, like, a Steve Stricker type, like, schedule two, just playing, like, you know, a couple, like, PG Tour events, just the four majors, and then... Phoenix, and yeah. Right. I mean, I do agree with you, like, kind of like with Rory, like...

There's a lot of golf courses on here that I would liken that. Like I, if he was healthy, I would like him in Southern Hills. I would like him to Valhalla. I would like him at probably a Ron and he's been really good. The open as well, typically been very good at Augusta too. So it just, this is just my gut call about how he's 32 years old. And you know, just somebody he's always seems like he's had like nagging injuries and he's

I don't know. I just, I, I, it's a good take. It's a fair take. It's a take to the point where I was like considering my take. I think your take is, I don't want to say stronger. I think there's an argument for both, but you know, you're right. Like we talked about it with speed that there's, if there's one candidate where, you know, you worry about like,

Is he just done? Like, you know, like there's a chance that Brooks isn't that guy anymore. There's a chance that DJ isn't that guy anymore. Right? Like you just, you don't actually know. Yeah. No, uh, Bruce's soul is somewhere. I think on the 13th, all of Beth page black DJ when he airmailed the green, uh,

Ever since then on Sundays, it kind of just, you know. That's Kirshner's take too. Kirshner talks about how ever since that Sunday at Bethpage, Brooks is just a different guy. Yeah, I know our good friend Brian Kirshner is definitely on that blog, and I kind of agree with him. Look at him, he just has it. So, I don't know. All right. I mean, I think we beat this one up a little bit. JT, I'll weed us off here. 29 years old.

He's got one major, the 2017 PGA at Quail Hollow. I set the over-under at 3.5, Steve. And even as a huge JT fan, I think JT gets two more majors. I think JT finishes his career with three. I talked about this take a little bit in my Byron Nelson stuff. You actually dive into it, and it's like,

I think there's an argument that his game is better suited for easier courses than harder courses. You don't generally think about that with a guy who's such a good ball striker but isn't a good putter. But you look at majors and you can kind of make the argument that GT's really overachieved in these PGA Tour events, like random PGA Tour events overseas and stuff like that with 14 wins.

but he's only top 10 in under a quarter of the majors that he's played in over a pretty large sample size. He's still done absolutely nothing at the British, like absolutely nothing at the British. He's been okay at the U S open. Like I think he's kind of underachieved a little bit at the U S open. I do think he's going to win a master's, especially with bones on the back. And I'm probably going to bet him at the masters every single year until he does it. I have the last two years, but,

But my guess for JT is that he wins two more majors. And I wouldn't be surprised if both of them are masters. What say you? Okay. I mean, I think he's live at some of these PGA venues, like Valhalla, Aaronovic. Like, like, like when I think about Justin Thomas, like even if like the PGA is kind of get a little harder, like,

That one I feel like is the most robot golf of all of them as far as just, okay, this is my line. Everything's in front of me. I just got to hit it here. Like there's obviously exceptions. I don't think Southern Hill is going to be like that, but like, you know, Valhalla, Quail, like, you know, even like I know Gil Hance did or Ron and make, but just looking at some of the, that how that golf course is kind of set up, like unless they do something drastic with, I think the fairways, like it kind of looks like a FedEx cup.

golf course still. Yeah. So, you know, I mean, we'll see on that. So I think PGA's probably are still in play for him. I think the Masters probably still play for him, but I think you nailed it on the head as far as like,

U.S. Opens, like, what's the only one he's really been good at? It was Aaron Hills, which was arguably one of the easier ones. Right, 17 under. Yep. And I'm looking at some of these other ones. I don't think Brooklines can be very easy. I don't think LA Country Clubs can be very easy. I don't think Pioneers can be easy. Oakmont never is. Shinnecock is never is. I mean, maybe Pebble, but...

You know, I think a lot of guys can be played there. So I don't think he's going to be good for a U S open. Same thing with open championship. Like those are the ones where it's stuff is going to go wrong. And I've never really trusted when just some things go wrong. Can JT kind of hold it together? And I think he kind of nailed on the head that a lot of his wins have been on easier tracks. I haven't challenged him. So I also went under, I had two as well. So we are finally back on the same page as far as JT and,

Yeah, I think, and I think we're going to look back because like, man, how many majors have we gone into? It's like, it's Justin Thomas. We Justin Thomas feels like we go into everything other than the open. I feel like we always say, well, Justin Thomas, it's like, like you may mention about Rory's like the most talented. I think we're holding Justin Thomas at the same esteem too, because it's how great of a ball striker he is. Yeah.

man like the fact he's had that few top tens especially us opens when you feel like ball striking just so important like i i mean i three is a big number just in general i think for right just any golfer but i feel like with him it's like should have been way more right you know

We'll move on to the next guy in a second, but like JT is the type of guy that I do think can win 10 more times on the PGA tour. And he's already got 14 of them. So if he finishes his career with three majors and 25 wins, he's like the 24th best golfer of all time. Right. And like, so it feels like we're kind of knocking JT, but like if he wins, he's,

10 he's 29 years old. Probably we'll say he has 14 prime years left, 13 prime years left. If he wins 10 more times and two more majors, that's awesome. I mean, that's like, you're putting yourself in the category. Like you're almost up there with like VJ and like, uh, Ernie, you know, it's a, it's a damn good career. And like JT as the 25th or 26 best golfer of all time, uh,

That feels right for him. That feels right for him. I don't think he's a six major guy. I don't think he's a five major guy, but I think three and 25 wins feels right for him. Next guy, Hideki. He's 30 years old. He has one major win. It is the 2020 masters over under 2.5. So does Hideki win two more majors or,

It's my turn, right? Or is it your turn? It's your turn. You lead us off. Okay, I'll lead us off. So I originally was going to be pretty high at Hideki when I was first doing this exercise. What did you think the over-under was going to be? Did you think it was going to be... I thought it was going to be...

one nap more. So if he wins two more. Yeah. And that was about where I was going back and forth between one and two. Yeah. So I settled on under, and I think he's only going to win one more. So kind of like, it's not as extreme as Brooks, but like Hideki also has been kind of nicked up over the last couple of years too. He had that wrist injury a couple of years ago. He just had the neck injury too. And just some of the venues as well. I mean, I don't think he's going to win an open. Yeah.

I can't really recall a ton of U.S. Open success. Like, I know he's got some top tens, but, like, other than, I think, Aaron Hills when... I think you runner-upped at Aaron Hills. Yeah, but he wasn't really in the mix, though. He had a big Sunday, but I think he was...

well back at Brooks. It seemed like it was Brooks, JT, Fleetwood, Harmon on Sunday. Brandon Grace. Yeah. Or was that Chambers Bay? Well, that was Chambers Bay. And that was one more he blew. Oh, he won the Open Championship. Wasn't he in the mix at Whistling at one point too? Yeah. It was that one. It was an Open Championship.

I think he was in the mix at a Baltusrol, which seems like a simulation because that was like two weeks after he opened that weird year. But yeah, I'm not sure how much of the U.S. Open is going to set him up, but I think some of these PGA venues coming up, I like him a lot at Southern Hills next week. I think Valhalla's going to play Quail Hollow. I mean, he probably should have won that Quail Hollow one back in 2017. I keep bringing up Aronamink. It feels like, I think,

almost anyone with good ball striking in play because I don't think, I think that's the one where I think the PGA is going to have maybe the most difficulty challenging people. Protecting. Which actually maybe knocks Hideki. So like if the PGA is transitioned to like more of the harder style, you know, I think I kind of like Hideki there. And I like, you know, I have followed Hideki a little bit at the Masters this year, like even with the neck injury.

I just feel like any time Augusta is going to have one of those difficult, cold, windy, firm setups, I think he's going to be live there. So, I mean, there's a chance he might pick one up there. So I think the Masters and PGA probably are his best bets. I think he can pick up one or two. But I think three, considering he's 30 years old, there have been some injury concerns, might be a little much, especially just considering just –

the wealth of talent kind of with golf now. I think you nailed it. I don't have a ton to add. I have a similar take. I think he wins one more. You could talk me into two. I think once you win a masters, we see a lot of repeat winners at masters. Um, even just like last year, just like looking at, at this year, I mean, just like what, what's Carl Schwartzel doing top five, right? Like Danny, all these guys, like, I think,

I think he's going to be there at future masters a lot. And it wouldn't shock me if he wins another masters wouldn't shock me. If he wins another PGA, I don't think he's the level of player of some of the guys we just talked about. Like we're now starting to get into, he's got a 22% top 10 major percentage. He's almost missed more cuts at the open than he's made PGA. He's been excellent masters. He's been very, very good as well. But I think, you know,

Hedek, if a deck, he's a guy with, he feels like a two major 15 win guy to me, which again, like we're talking about a top 50 player of all time, right? That's I think the thing people forget, but I'm with you. I went with, uh,

I went with under any else, anything else you want to add to that key or you want to, or you, no, I think you put it well, like I always kind of refer to these guys. Like if I would look at their Wikipedia page, like what do I see? And I think I see two majors, maybe three at best for Hideki. Like, I don't see like the long laundry list, like, you know, like some of these guys that we might think have that potential. So yeah, I think that's a good call.

Bryson DeChambeau, he's 28 years old. He's got one major. It was the 2020 US Open at Winged. I'll go first. I set him at 2.5. So does Bryson win two more majors? I'm going out on a limb here. I'm going to say, yeah. Here's my thing with Bryson. And I've always liked Bryson. I'm not a Bryson guy. I don't root for Bryson aggressively when I don't have money on him.

But the thing that I noticed with Bryson is I look at a player, you know, you ask any of the players on the PGA tour. I know the fans like give Bryson a lot of shit because he doesn't have a ton of self-awareness. He does some cringy stuff, but you go to a driving range on the PGA tour and you ask the other players what they think of Bryson. And they're like, man, what this dude is doing is fucking unbelievable. Like it's incredibly innovative. I think he's obsessed with,

And I think he has the, I don't think what he's got going on is going to work forever. I don't even know if it's going to work for the next five years. I don't know if it's going to work for the next five months, Steve.

But I think there's something about Bryson that I just trust to reinvent himself and figure out a way to be relevant. I mean, he's the type of guy, Steve, that is going to want to probably play into his fifties. I just think he's so much of a fucking nerd and he loves golf so much. And he's an incredible putter too. I, he's an unbelievable putter of the, all of the guys that we just mentioned, maybe speed. You can make an argument. Bryson's the best putter of all of them. So, uh,

I think Bryson's going to find a way. And if he keeps up the distance thing, I think he's in play at a lot of these PGA is coming up. You know, I'm sure PGA Frisco, Texas wide open bombers track from what I've heard.

I don't think we have time to get into the Masters with Bryson. That's like a whole other podcast, and I think we kind of differ on that one a little bit. But I think these setups with Thick Ruff at the US Opens too, where they're just going to keep doing this. They're just going to keep...

making the rough super thick at, at Torrey Pines and all these places. And I think there's a roadmap for him. And I just, I trust him to just be obsessed about this fact. He's a historian of the game, Steve, like he loves Ben Hogan and all this shit. Like I just, I'm sold. I'm sold on it. I'm sold on it. And he could get injured tomorrow and never play a competitive round of golf. And I wouldn't be surprised either. Okay.

Well, I think that's the angle I took as far as, so I only have the information at my disposal today. Now, if Bryson makes some changes to his physique, maybe how he approaches the game, I think I would be a little more amenable. But as I'm sitting here right now, we are sitting here with a large man who probably should not have that much weight on that frame.

And he has a torn labrum. He has a wrist injury right now. And, you know, you kind of hear, like, I think about like sometimes with like football players where like, sometimes you have this like running back who has a lot of agility, you know, he's quick, but you know, the coaches want to add him to add like 15, 20 pounds of muscles. And, you know, for the first year it works. And then just because he just wasn't, God didn't build them that way to hold that much weight on the frame. He ends up getting injured. And I'm a little concerned that maybe that might be,

The start of things right now where Bryson is, as far as like with the hip and the wrist, didn't he have a, I think he might've had a little bit of a back injury too, like at Torrey, like he had a lot of stuff going on at Torrey. So, and I, I think there's that angle of it. I think, I mean, we do differ on Augusta. I'm, I'm not sold. He's going to win there after walking the property. Some of these U S open setups to, to,

I don't think he's in play at Brookline. I don't think he's in play at Pinehurst. I Oakmont he's in play. And if he's still healthy wing foot again, maybe, maybe I think what I'm concerned there with, like, there's a lot of really tight lies around the green though. And that's never really been. Yeah. As we stand here now, his chipping has been horrendous. Right. I mean, that's, we're going to talk about another horrendous shipper later, but like, and I think like in our good buddy, Jeff Nagel,

kind of gave a very great theory about Bryson is that like anytime he's on these, you know, golf course with some uneven lies, I think the single length irons kind of give him a little bit of trouble because like, you know, it's one thing to beat balls on a range with a track man and a flat lie. Like, okay, I know what my ball speed is. I know my launching was all that stuff. But when he's got the single length irons, he's got to figure out, okay, where exactly I take it back. And we have an uneven lie that he's got to compensate for that. So now he's actually playing golf swing and not golf. So, um,

You know, I, I think, I think some of these, I think you're right. I think the PGA would be, I think I see that range of Valhalla quail, Ron and McFrisco. I think that's a good range for him there. I, I mean, obviously he's hurt for Southern Hills. I don't like him there. I don't like him for Oak Hill. Although I'm interested in seeing, because he is on record saying that, um, you know, he can rip up Donald Ross golf courses after a week to Detroit golf club. Yeah. So I'm in, uh,

I am. There's also a universe where we don't get wind at St. Andrews and he wins that golf tournament. That is also true as well, but he's got to be healthy for it though. And as of this point, I think St. Andrews, they like put it in every five years. So the next open spot, 20, 20 sex is possibly. And there's a couple other like Carnoustie, Birkdale, Litham. Those aren't on the radar right now. Those guys get slotted. So, yeah, I think as of right now,

I think he'll win one PGA, but I am concerned with how he is approaching the game. And I think you alluded to it. I don't think what he's doing is sustainable for the long term. And just with how golf equipment kind of is now, I don't think he needs to be this big in order to get it out that long. Like you see some guys that like there are ways in order to

basically get your club head speed up without gaining 50, 60 pounds of muscle. Like you can do that now. And, um,

It might be better for him to scale back a little bit on the weight, maybe try and find other ways to get clubhead speed. Yeah, I think he's realized that a little bit, right? He's not as big as he was a year ago. He is, and he's still pretty big, though. So, you know, don't go back to, like, what he was, but I think there's other ways for him to hit the ball far without going the direction he's gone in.

So I think that's my concern with him. Long term, short term, I think there's definitely some venues he can win at. I just question his health a little bit.

Very fair. He also has a 9% major top 10 percentage. So thus far, and it's a decently large sample size. It's over 20 majors. He hasn't really done a ton. He's got that one win, and that's really been his only kind of real contending performance. So we'll see. We'll see with Bryson. I think he's a fascinating one. Cam Smith, 28 years old. He's got zero majors.

Over under 1.5. Leave us off, Steve. Okay. I mean, I think Cam Smith is playing great right now. And I think what's going on with him is... The reason why he's been so great is...

He's always had the scramble. He's always had the putting, but the iron play has been so good. That's been the really big improvement over the last couple of years and why he's been translating some top tens and stuff to some wins or being a contender and everything like that. I think a couple of things with him. Number one is...

He is going to regress from what he is right now. It's not always going to be like this. So there's that to consider. Number two, the off-the-tee thing, I know he's done some work with it, but...

That's a huge liability. The big left mess, Steve. Listen to these guys talk about eliminating the left side of the golf course. The big left mess that Cam Smith has, and we even saw it down the stretch at the Masters, is problematic. It's crippling. When you have that maybe one, two, three times a tournament, and that turns into doubles, there's such a fine margin between winning and not.

And while like that can be top tens, if that comes at the wrong time, it's just, that's the difference. And I really think it's some of these major venues like at Augusta, he has to clean that up. Like he's going to, he will probably contend because he's a great scramble, great putter. He knows the golf course, but man, he's got to clean that stuff up. There's a couple other PGA's like PGA's. I don't really think,

are for him just based on some of these courses that are coming up. Only one top 25 and six starts there. Right. I think Pinehurst might be a good one for him if it plays pretty firm. Yeah, I could see Pebble too. Yeah, Pebble as well. What about Shinnecock if that plays pretty firm? Yeah, I could see it. I think there's a realm for him at some of these US Open venues that aren't just like the narrow venues

thick, rough, like that stuff. I think there's an avenue for them. I think he could be alive as some open championships too. I'm not quite sure why he hasn't been as good, but I think how his game is right now, as far as how the irons are, he can be better. But I just think overall, just with how talented he is,

of, you know, the field of golfers are. And plus, right. I mean, considering like guys who are like 15, 14 right now, we're going to be awesome. And like, you know, six, seven, eight, nine, 10 years who are going to give him trouble too. So I only went with one. I think he can get one, but I think that's it. I like, I think he might end up just being this one and done guy and have a lot of close calls, but yeah,

I don't see him being a multiple time major winner. I'm with you. I agree. I think it's under, I think he wins either a masters or an open championship. I think there's a case for two because I think cam Smith is really good at getting the most out of his good weeks. I think he's a ceiling golfer and he,

I like the fact that he is capable of gaining 14 strokes putting. You know what I mean? I think that's really dangerous in terms of there's going to be a lot of instances where I could see Cam Smith having a really bad slump and maybe not being a top 50 player in the world. But because he's one of those guys that has such a high ceiling with his putter,

I think he's dangerous to win a lot. But, you know, again, we're talking about, I have this list pulled up next to me of, I have like a long-term pyramid of the greatest golfers of all time. It's real. I don't even want to get into it because it's, even for you, like, I think you'd be like, dude, you are such a nerd with this stuff. But if Cam Smith wins, like,

15 times. I think he's got five of them. He's 28 years old, so he's young. So if he wins seven, eight more times in another major, it's like you're at Davis loves career. You're a retief goose's career. Like you're at like,

I don't think he's a top 50 golfer of all time. I think he's a really, really good player, but one feels about right to me. Yeah. And by the way, I think you underestimate how big of a nerd I am. So if you want to send that my way, I would love to just go through it. Let's talk about Patrick Cantlay. Oh, let's talk about Cantlay. Okay. So 1.5. He's got zero majors. He's got zero majors. He's 30 years old. I have him at 1.5.

It's my turn, right? Yes, it is. Over. Starting next week. Okay. I just like his game. I like his game for majors.

I like his game for Augusta. I like his game for us opens. He's plenty long off the tee. He has the putting upside that we just talked about with Bryson and cam Smith, where he can go unconscious. I mean, he still has, I think the record for the best putting week in the strokes gain error at caves Valley when we all had Bryson and he gained like 15 strokes, strokes, putting, um,

I like his demeanor. I think he's a sneaky good interview. I think he's a sneaky smart guy. I think he has a lot of self-awareness. I trust his... I know he hasn't done it yet. He's played in, yeah, 20 majors, and he's two top tens, two of them. I just see it with him. I think he's a damn good player, and I think he's a killer. And I think he... I don't think he's a...

Top 40, top 30 guy of all time. But I think he is 18 wins, two majors, which again, we're talking Sandy Weil, Tony Jacklin, Johnny Miller, right? Like basically- John Daly. Sure. There you go. Marco Mira. I think he's good enough. I think Ben Crenshaw. I think he's as good as those guys. So I'm going over with Cantlay. I feel, I sense an undercoming.

It's going to be under. Okay. So...

I mean, listen, this is, this conversation is completely moot point because this is going to come out to the Southern Hills. I think what it concerns me and the, and actually was good for Patrick Cali is his track record teed green on Bermuda golf course. Like not like Bermuda green, like actually hitting off of Bermuda is not great. And that's a little bit of a concern for me, but that's a, that's a different story. And most of these golf courses, as we're going to talk about with the next guy, we'll,

on this list are mostly backgrass and northern strains, which is going to be good for him. What concerns me with Cantlay is...

Like, if you look at his record on difficult scoring conditions, just in general on the PGA Tour 2, it's not great. Like, where he succeeded is not necessarily, like, the birdie fest, but, like, some of the more plotter, smaller tracks. And I'm not... He died hair and flesh. Yeah, like, and I'm not quite sure if...

That's really what he's comfortable doing. Like, and that's the only place, because I don't believe that he's talented enough.

But I think we're starting to get to a point with him where, I mean, he is 30 years old and he does have a history of some back injuries and he does have a track record so far of not being tremendous in hard scoring additions. I think the lone exception was, I mean, he finished, I think top five at Beth page the

The top 10 at the Masters was 2019, and that was a very easy scoring Masters. He had the lead, though. He did. He did. But I'm just saying, like, that was an easier scoring Masters. So I feel like he needs those type of conditions. Now, looking down the line, I mean, I think at Augusta that –

Might play a little easier. I'm just basing off his track record. I mean, we will get those at some point, maybe next year he could be live there. I think at a, I mean, I think he might be, if the weather is good in St. Andrews, I think he can be very live there too. I kind of like him there.

I think he can be live at Oak Hill. That seems like more of a shorter plotter course for him. Oronamik, I think, might play a little easier as well. He could be live there. Some of these U.S. open venues, though, I don't love that other than Pebble. So I feel like his path is maybe a little narrower. And considering he's 30, I think he's only going to get one. So I'm going to go under on that.

Fair take. Fair take. The moment everyone's been waiting for. Xander Shoffley, over under 1.5 majors. He's 28 years old. He's played in 19 majors. He's finished in the top 10 of nine of them. It's your turn.

Okay. Yeah. I want you to go first here. 1.5. Let me ask you a question real quick. What did you think my over under was going to be on him? Seven? You know, honestly, I thought you were going to go the other way and go 0.5. I thought you were going to actually put us to a decision. I am pretty down on him right now. Yeah. I know you are. Yeah. I don't know. Do I need like a little bit of a pep talk with you and Jeff? Make the case right now. Are you going over?

I think he's going to get one. I put him at 1.5. Oh, I'm sorry. Then yes. Under my apologies. Okay. Yeah. Yes. I am going to go under. I think he's going to get one. We do have a lot of bank grass golf courses coming down the pipe. You got Southern Hills, Aronamick, Brookline, Valhalla, Olympic club, Balmstraw, Marion Oak Hill. You got some polo golf courses too. You got pebble and he played pretty well there too. You know, it just, it seems like with him,

he's down for right now but it's not always going to be there and he just is very solid consistent in so many parts of parts of his game that i just and especially at the you know he's always gonna be alive at augusta i think some of these is the pga really is becoming more of a harder step which you know he hasn't had the greatest track record in those but if there's gonna become a little more harder i think that favors zander but again just you know i i well i think he's gonna get one

It just, there's a lot of really talented golfers. He's got to contend with, you know, not just with this list, but just with guys who are just going to end up coming up, you know? So I'm going to say just the one and I'm going to take the under. I went under to put it this way. If he, if he finishes with two, like I would sign for that as a Xander Shoffley fan. And you told me 10, 15 years from now, two majors, I would absolutely sign for that.

There's a case for over based on the fact that he's just going to continue to give himself a ton of opportunities. He's played in five US Opens. He's finished in the top 10 every single time. I think the only other guy to do that is Ben Hogan or maybe Bobby Jones. It's one of those guys. But he almost won a British Open at Carnoustie. I think people forget he was right there. He was...

either tied for the lead or one back on 17. And that par three, he had a bad iron shot and made like bogey on the second to last hole. Obviously he had a chance at the mat. He's had multiple chances at the masters. Actually. I don't know. I just, I am down on him right now. I don't, I think the tinkering thing is kind of in my head. I don't like that. It seems like

I just heard this story about him at the Masters where he was on this computer on the putting green on Wednesday afternoon. That's like if Steph Curry, the night before Game 7 of the NBA Finals, had a free throw shooting doctor with a...

with a computer out. It's just like, dude, it's Wednesday before the fucking Masters. I don't want to see a computer out right now on the putting grid. And I'm very self-aware about Xander's limitations as a golfer and his ceiling. I have this top 75 list written up there. Xander feels like a decent comp for him.

Could be a Davis Love, which is an incredible career. He'd have to get busy for that though. Davis Love won 20 times in one major. Maybe a Dave Graham, two majors, nine wins. Fuzzy Zeller, 10 wins, two majors. Dave Stockton, 10 wins, two majors. Curtis Strange, 17 wins, two majors.

What about like a Corey Pavin? He won once. Yeah. I think Pavin's got, Pavin didn't make my list. Okay. So yeah. Yeah.

I think one feels right. And I think he's going to have a lot of opportunities. And I just know as a Knicks fan and as a Xander fan, I'm just, I'm going to have a lot of heartbreak, but. Can I give you a story about Xander from the masters? I was on the ground and watched him. So unbeknownst to me, when you started saying that he was undergoing maybe a swing change to add, I want to fade. I think. So I know. Which has been debunked by the way, by his caddy firsthand. Okay. Well, you know,

We'll see. But I do know that he clearly didn't have the swing that week. I was behind the second green on Friday, and he just, I think, putted out for par. And he was taking his putter and doing air swings. And usually when you're doing air swings with your putter, that ain't good. So I knew at that point, like, oh, boy, he's missing the cut. And I think he missed it maybe on the number, but no. Yeah, he missed it by like three or four.

He just didn't have it that week. So it's not always going to be like this, though, okay? You're not very far away from almost winning the Masters, and you got all those U.S. Opens. I'm looking at all these U.S. Open setups right now. I don't really see a single one I don't like him at. Me too. So that's good. You mentioned Carnusi, and what was the conditions that week? It was firm, fast.

You know, we haven't had one of those in a while. Portrush was pretty soft. We're all saying, George, that was soft and kind of easy. We're going to get one of those at some point too. Maybe you can attend. I think he's got more opportunity than maybe, you know, you think. And just if he keeps putting himself in a position, at some point he's going to break through. So hang in there, buddy.

Let's talk about Victor Hovland. Okay. Let's definitely talk about Hovland. Okay. This might be my hot. This might be one of my hotter takes. Is it? Yeah. I think it's my turn, right? Yeah. First on Xander. Hovland's 24 years old.

He's never won a major. He's never had a top 10 in a major. He's only played nine majors. I put the over at 2.5 and I have him under. And I think there are a lot of people that, uh,

think that Hovland is capable of winning like six majors. And is he... Yeah, dude, come on. There is a Hovland cult. I know there is, but six is a lot. Okay, I know. But listen, we're talking young Rory here is what everyone says about Hovland, which...

by the way, I don't think that's a fair comparison whatsoever because at 24, didn't Rory have like two majors? Yeah. And I think Rory had a short game too. So, ah, I thought you were going to make the case. Um, okay. Oh, you are sadly mistaken. I have a story for you. Yeah, I have. I think he's cooked at these places. I, I were before Southern Hills. So I'm putting myself on the line here to look really stupid. Um,

I'm out until he gets this figured out. Like I keep going back to this JT interview where they asked him what the most important part of major championships was. And he said short game. And I thought that was interesting because that wouldn't have been my first answer. I don't think it would have been a lot of people's first answer. I think a lot of people would say iron play and JT was like short game. And I'm going to give you something unquantifiable too. I don't know if he plays smart golf all the time.

I watched some of the shots that he hit coming down the stretch. I can't remember whether... I remember it was the PGA Championship last year at Kiowa. And it was his first time really playing a Pete Dye. And he kind of debunked this working theory that I have that he wasn't going to be good at Pete Dye based on playing well at the players. But I remember watching him just like...

Dude, there's like pop bunkers in the middle of the fairway. You have to like maybe take some strategy into play here. And I think the architecture, it's not track man golf at a lot of these places. And I think the architecture at some of these major championships is it's different. It's interesting. Certainly at Southern Hills is interesting architecture. It's very strategic golf there.

This isn't me saying Hovland's like a dumb guy. I hope people understand that. It's just me saying, I don't know if he's figured out that part of golf that again, you can have talent till you're blue in the face. The reason why tiger was tiger and he'll be the first to tell you was because he figured out the other side of golf. And I don't know if Hovland has figured that out yet. And he's got the worst fucking short game on the PGA tour. So, uh,

Listen, he could make us look really stupid. I think he has a really high ceiling, like a really high ceiling, but I'm going under. And by the way, two majors is a damn good career, right? Like if Hovland wins two majors and 15 wins or something like that, like it's a damn good career, but I'm going under. Okay. Now let me tell you my master's story because I, uh, so I spent some time on Saturday, um, by the, uh, practice green. And,

And there was a bunch of guys out there practicing bunker shots. He had Horschel out there. He's Swafford. Adam Scott was, he got, he put himself in a bunker, I think like 25 yards from a green and we're just hitting like stuff, you know, bunker shots to like five feet, just effortless. And I wouldn't even call him a great scrambler anymore just because of, you know, some of the stats, but, and then Victor Hoblin comes up and I'm like, all right, I got to see like what's wrong because he has been so bad. I have a bunker. He cost me a Bay Hill with his bunker play too.

And I was like, all right, I just, I'm just going to watch this guy. And he looks so robotic, so uncomfortable. He's got his coach right behind him to like talk to him. But like, I think the closest, and this was not like where he was and where the pin was on this practice. It wasn't a very difficult bunker shot, but,

It just, it's deficient. It's not acceptable. I think the closest he got was maybe like three or four feet and everything else is either, you know, hanging on the lip. He'd leave it in the bunker. He let it run by. And like, you know, it's interesting you say that with Justin Thomas, when he said like, you know, short game is what matters most. I think it's because, you know, when you get these major venues, you know,

I mean, the green regulation rate is going to go down for everyone. Yeah, 50%. And you've got to learn how to save strokes at some point. And a lot of people do. It was short game. And that's why they gussed the national until he fixes that short game. He's never winning there. A lot of these venues too where –

You know, you're not hitting greens as a high of a rate, but if you're off the green where it's manageable, someplace with like tight lies and like tricky bunkers where, yeah, you can still get up and down, but it's the places, it's the ones who can't do that. They fall behind and he's not gonna be able to hit every green or to make up the difference. So a lot of those venues, I don't like him at open championships. I'm not sure if I like him there either. I think where Hovland is going to, if he's going to win, it's going to be at a place where,

Kind of like what we saw at Bay Hill this year, where it's just impossible for anyone to get up and down. And no one's hitting greens. Kind of like winged foot. Because Bryson did not have a great short game either, and he still ended up winning. And Matthew Wolfe didn't either, and they were the top two, just because they hit a lot of greens because they had a lot of distance, so they hit a lot of fairways. No one was hitting fairways. No one was hitting greens. No one was getting up and down. So some of those venues are kind of like that.

You know, Quail had kind of low scrambling rates and green regulation rates back in 2017. That could be one. He's had success there. That might be a PGA he picks up. Oakmont was similar. That's kind of got deep rough and like firm greens that had low scrambling rates wing foot again. But otherwise though, like you nailed it right on the head. Like if he does not clean up that short game deficiency, he's not winning. He's like top 10 at a whole lot of places. He might show well, but yeah,

You know, there's going to be situations where he needs to get up and down and he can't do it. And that's the difference between winning and losing. So, I mean, just because he's 24, maybe one, but I'm not going any more than that until he fixes, fixes that.

Your 2022 PGA Championship winner, Victor Hovland. God, this is going to look awful. We might have to edit this out. Scotty Scheffler. He's 25 years old, Steve. He just won the Masters. He's got one major win. What did I put it at? 3.5. Okay. You first. Me first? Yeah. That's a fair number.

Um, because unlike the guy we just talked about, I think Sheffler's got a lot of tools in his arsenal. 50% major top 10 percentage in 10 majors. A lot of majors, a lot of ways he can score a lot of ways he can save strokes.

Uh, good putter, pretty good iron player. Good off the tee. He's got some length as well. Good ability to, you know, to scramble as well. And, you know, he's wanted some big boy golf courses recently. I mean, it's like, kind of like what I mentioned with cancer, but this is not going to last forever. He's on a big year, but he's a great player in his own right. And there's a lot of things he can do really well.

You know, four majors is just a lot. I'm going to take the under again. I feel like I'm taking a ton of unders, but I'm going to take the under on it too, just because just four is a lot. And just looking at some of the guys who made that, you know, got to four, like,

You know, there's a lot of really good players. And I'm not saying that Scheffler isn't, but I just think there's a lot of really good players. And I think with at the professional game right now with the equipment that they're all using, where it's not like it was back in like the seventies and eighties and nineties, where if you're a little bit off center, the ball's going to go careening somewhere else. And a lot of these guys, even if you hit it off the toe, it's going to go straight in 300 yards. And it just, I feel like for the professional game with what these guys are working with,

you know, at least some of their margins for error a little bit with that stuff is a little bigger and there's just more guys to compete. And there's a lot of really good players. And I think just four is a lot considering a lot of the competition. So I think if he gets the three, that's an outstanding career, obviously. So I think I'm just going to go with a little bit under with three.

I'm under as well. And I originally had this at 2.5 and I psyched myself out because I just feel like it's prisoner of the moment. Yes, I get it. But I just feel like we keep doubting this guy. And it's like, I'm just like even thinking about it now. Like, I don't even think he's going to be there.

I don't think anyone's going to pick him at Southern Hills, right? No one's picking him at the bar. And it's just like, at what point do you start to say like, okay, we got to give this dude a little bit more respect. So I acknowledge that 3.5 was kind of a high number. I mean, he's 25 years old. He's really young and all he's done has been awesome at major championships.

And he's also the type of guy that we talked about. He's kind of the inverse of our concerns with Xander and even Hovland you were talking about a little bit out of the bunkers. He's just a feel player. And I think he's the type of guy that I don't think he's going to think too much at a lot of these places. I think he's got a little DJ in him. And I think he...

I don't think he's the type of guy either that is ever going to get too big for himself. Like you listen to some of the stuff he was talking about after the masters. And it's like, he kind of just likes to watch the office and hang out with his wife and play golf. Like, I don't, I don't think he's ever. And you've heard Rory talk about this too, where Rory is like,

Suddenly, you're an ambassador for the game and you're an international star and your life gets bigger and things just change. I think Scottie's always going to stay really close to golf because I think he loves playing golf. He's one like...

Even as a junior, he won like 75% of the junior tournaments he's played on. And I think winning is a skill. And I think Scheffler just kind of, I think he has it. Who has a better career, Hovland or Scheffler? Scheffler. Me too. People would say Hovland and people would say we're being a prisoner of the moment right now. But I think it's Scheffler too. He's got an amazing short game, by the way. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, he does. And I think that's just, he, I feel like he has, cause you know, like it's over the course of four rounds, something is going to go wrong. And I feel like if the ball strike is a little off with Hovland, there's nothing really saving him with Scheffler. He can ham and egg it. And I'm more confident with a guy like that. And I think that's going to end up winning more. And I think even in this early, his career right now, like I know it took him a while to win, but like,

As far as good finishes and being up there in the mix, Scheffler has just been better than Hovland. I mean, Hovland's win has come on two past following golf courses, the BMW Euro tournament, and then the Abu Dhabi, I think. So I'm still waiting for him to actually do something on –

like a legit field. Yeah. And I would take Scottie's career at this point, if they, if we're resetting to zero right now for everybody, I think Scottie is going to beat Hovland at the end of the day, when we look back on them in like 20 years, not to step on who we're going to get in a second. You think he beats more Kala if we're starting at zero right now? Yeah. I don't think so. I think more cow is, I think he,

We can do it now. We can do it now. There's three more guys and we can go out of order. I was going to do one more guy, more Colin than the last guy, but let's do more Colin now. He's 25 years old. He's won two majors. He won the PGA at Harding Park in 2020 and he won the 2021 British Open at Royal St. George's. He's played in nine majors. He's finished top 10 in

Five of them. He has finished top five in all of the majors. I set him at 4.5 and I'm going over. Okay. Five majors is a lot. And I have this list of,

up in front of me of the guys that have won five or more majors. We're talking Peter Thompson, Seve, Byron Nelson, Phil, Tom Watson, Gene Sarazin, Arnold Palmer, Sam Snead, Walter Hagan, Gary Player, Ben Hogan, Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus. So I don't take five majors lightly. And I don't think he's going to win five.

as many of those guys, by the way. Like a lot of those guys have upwards of 40 wins. I don't think that that's necessarily possible in this day and age. No, it isn't. Not with the equipment these guys are playing with. I mean, back then, like when Sarah's and everything were winning, like a lot of the guys they're competing with were... Dentists. Not quick. Yes, exactly. So, okay. So the case is that he is actually...

of all the players that we've talked about, he is actually on pace to be an all-time great. Like, to have two under his belt at 25 is pretty crazy. I mean, he's played in nine majors and he's won two of them. And I just think with Morikawa, I think he is the ultimate cheat code in terms of...

I think he is the one player where even if you want to take the stance of length is going to continue to increase on the PGA tour. By the way, Colin Marko is not short. Like some of these guys like Spieth and Morikawa, they get called short because they're not Hovland or Rory or Brooks. Like Morikawa is fine in terms of like, he's, we're not, he's not Ryan armor off the tape, but I think when you're like two 98 off the box becomes short. Exactly. Exactly. So I,

I think the reason why I think Morikawa is going to win five majors, because I think at the end of the day, Steve, there's a pretty good bet that someone's going to go way over these totals and one guy from this generation maybe is going to finish with five and a lot of guys are going to finish with way less than we think. And the reason why I would pick Morikawa is because

I just think the irons are such a cheat code. And I think if you're asking for any single one skill in a golfer, if you just could have one,

just one and forget everything else. It's iron play. And he is the greatest iron player since Tiger woods. And I think the length thing doesn't matter because I mean, he's almost one at Torrey pines. The masters is a really long course too. I think he's going to be fine at the masters. The reason why it's fine for more call is that his five irons more accurate than most guys, eight and nine irons. And he,

He's already on such a good pace that I just think Morikawa is 25 years old. He doesn't really seem to get hurt. He's got a very slow and repeatable swing. His head's in the right place. He cares about golf. He loves golf. He's a nerd. He's competitive as hell. He's a killer. You know, you get afraid when he's in the mix down the stretch. He's probably the closest thing that we've had to

too tiger in the sense that like, Oh, Colin coming right. Like when he's there, like he will, he'll step on your throat. Um, and he's a volatile putter. Uh, so I think Colin Markal was probably the best bet of all of these players. He would be my pick to win five majors and finish his career of the active guys as like a top 15, top 10 guy. Good case. Yeah.

That's a great case. Actually, you just gave me a little PTSD because I remember when I was holding the NEMA ticket at Riviera and Morikawa was making the charts, I was like, oh, God. And he worked at him, right? Yeah, I am waiting, but Morikawa was coming. You were right. And I was just pacing in my room. My wife said, what the hell's wrong with you? I'm like, this is going to end very poorly for you today because Collins were a snatcher for me. No, you made an excellent case. I think what I'm going to add, too, is you talked about how his head's in the right place.

And there was an interview he did, I think with no laying up where, you know, like, like people are told when they go to Augusta nationally, got to hit a draw, you know, and that's, you know, he hits a fade. And the first couple of times he went there, he tried to hit a draw. And finally he just realized that I'm comfortable with my own game, that I can just hit whatever shot I want. And I know it's going to come through. I believe myself. I have faith in myself.

And he went in with that attitude this year and he finished fourth or whatever it did. It was, it was a top five finish. He played great. And I love that. He's just comfortable with who he is. I don't worry about him ever trying to chase distance. Right. I don't worry about him ever trying to tinker. I think he just knows that this is what I got. This is what God gave you my talents here. And then I can win any fucking golf course I go to.

And so I think that's why it's going to go over. I think he's going to win a Masters. I think a lot of these US Open venues, even if it's perceived like to be a bomber track, I think he's live there. I think it's some of these PGA venues too. I think at Oak Hill, definitely live there. Olympic Club, live as well.

Maybe not Quahala, but Valhalla. I mean, if you want to go with the Jack Nicklaus, you know, thing with him, loves his Nicklaus golf courses. That's a Nicklaus as well. I mean, he showed he can win an open. So why not there too? Like, I mean, he's got a lot of opportunities and I think he's going to get to at least five. So I'm definitely taking the over on that. If we're picking nets, I would like a short game to get a little bit better. That is true.

Is that fair? I mean, I get it. It's like, well, you don't have to use your short game if you hit every green regulation. Yeah, I mean, but we're picking Nitz, and he's won two majors even without a great short game. Right. Yeah. And it's not Hovland bad either. Right. It's about to our average. There's been times I've seen him when I've been doing my trending models and stuff like that. He's been positive. I think recently it was a disaster, but it was a couple tournaments. But overall in his career, it's not –

It's not terrible. And like, look, like if like we, I remember when he was at Riviera and he was getting up and down from everywhere. And if you can chip a Riviera and get out Bocas Riviera, you can do it anymore. So I, I, I'm not concerned about his short game. I think when he needs it, he can definitely, you know, get up and down under pressure. We got two more, Steve, John Rom. He's 27 years old.

He's got one major, the US Open. I think if Jon Rahm was setting the over-under, he'd set it at like 18.5, right? Did you hear that quote? Like he's not stopping until he gets 20? No, I didn't actually. Okay. Well, I was a little bit more tempered in my expectations.

But I still gave him a lot of respect. I have 3.5 for Jon Rahm, in my opinion. And I want you to lead us off. Okay. So we talk about at the top of the show with Dustin Johnson about the long fluid backswing, how that promotes careers. Well, Jon Rahm is the opposite. Short backswing. And those typically don't really age well. So even though he's 27 years old,

His window is maybe a little shorter than most, no pun intended. So I went under. I think just that is a little bit concerning. I think just – and maybe it's just because I've become closer friends with you and Jeff Nagel over the last year that I'm just now so biased to just repel at anything of the notion that Jon Rahm can be a great golfer and the best of all time. But, you know, like –

You know, I mean, like he's not going to play Torrey Pines all the time. Not going to get that golf course. I don't think he's ever going to win an open championship. Some of these U S open setups. I mean, I don't love it. I don't love it at the next three. Oakmont. Maybe I don't think I like him a Shinnecock or pebble wing foot. Maybe there's only two there. I kind of like him in some of the PGA setups. Cause I feel like it's just hard and just right in front of you.

I mean, he's good at the Masters, but he's never really contended at the Masters. So I don't love his chances at two of the four majors, and I don't feel like the swing is really going to age all that great. So I'm going to take the under on that. I think Jon Rahm wins three majors. Three total? Okay. Yeah. I think that's very fair, man. I think that's a damn good career. I think a lot of...

I think a lot of people would make the case that of all the players that we just mentioned, ROM is the best bet to finish the day with the most. And I understand that argument. I could make a case that,

for over. And, you know, I think, I think I've been very fair about ROM, honestly. Like I think a lot. On the record, you have been, but I've had some conversations. Okay. Yes, that's true. Yeah, that's true. But a lot of my criticism of ROM is really nothing to do with his golf game and more to do with how he behaves on the golf course. And, you know, I'll give you,

I'll give you another thing. Like my buddy, Chris Powers came on the week after the master's and we were kind of giving master's takes and his hot take was, I don't think ROM ever wins a master's.

And it, and it was, and his, the reason why he said that was, and I agree with him. I thought the mud ball comment was fucking reprehensible. I don't think there's another player on this fucking list that says that Steve, I just, the lack of accountability there. It's, it's insane to me. I mean, other than Bryson, I mean, Bryson, great point, great point, great point, Bryson, a hundred percent, a hundred percent. I just want like,

I'm stealing this take a little bit from no laying up. Cause they've said this before too, but like the way that John Rom looks confused when he misses a putt, it's like, if you actually like watch his emotions, the way he missed when he misses a putt, it's like,

dude, do you like, how long have you been playing golf? Like, do you realize that like, they're not all going to go in. And I think you could spin that to, I think a good thing is that he has really high expectations for himself. And I do think that Ron overall has his head in the right place. Like I do think that he cares about the right things for all intents and purposes. Uh, I think he's probably great off the course from everything I've heard. Um,

I love his interviews. I think he is a smart and well-spoken guy. He is a student of the game. I think he understands everything

golf really well. And I think the inverse argument about the swing is, well, the shorter the swing, the more repeatable it is. And that's why I think you see Jon Rahm have such a high floor. Like Jon Rahm, out of all these players, if we're talking major top 10s, you've got to probably put his over under at the highest of any of these guys in terms of if we're just talking top 10s.

No, that's a very fair take too. What would you say John Rohn's best skill is on the golf course though? Like in his game? I think he's the best driver of the ball in the world right now. No? You think he's the best driver in the world? Who's better than him? Look at the numbers. I mean, I think on his best day, I think Bryson is.

Sure. But over the past, and this is given the fact that Bryson has been hurt, but Jon Rahm's been the best off the tee player in the world this year. It actually hasn't been that close. Okay. I mean, I know what the numbers say, but I think I still put Rory in front of him. That's fair. That's fair, too. I think I would put Bryson in front of him. I think I would put...

I still think I'll put DJ. I know DJ is struggling, but I think just in general, I think I would still put DJ in front of him. Yeah. Hovland's up there too. Like, like, like I, I guess with Rom, like, like I, like Morikawa, like I know his identity, like speed, like, like kind of like, like know their identity. Like it was like their game. Like, like Rom is just like, he's really good at a lot of things. And you know, like that as shown finishes top 10 and a lot of stuff, but yeah,

I don't know. Like, it just, it seems like kind of like, I just seems like when I'm watching him just like in the mix or something like that, just like putts aren't going in or he's putting in a bunker. I like, I don't know. It just seems like, like you said, like the floor is really good for him. And I'll give you that. But like, it's like to win like four or five, six majors, like,

I don't know. I don't know if he has it. That's what I'm saying is like, it feels like we're going low on him, but let me just read you off the guys that you're basically asking him to be in the same class of if he's over three and a half majors. Like we're talking Rory,

Peter Thompson, Ernie Els, Nick Faldo, Lee Trevino, Seve Ballesteros, Byron Nelson, Mickelson, Watson, Saracen, Palmer, Snead, Hagen Player, Hogan Woods, Brooks, I forgot. Like, you're asking, you're basically saying, if you're going over with Rahm, assuming that he wins a couple more times, too, on the PGA Tour and gets to, like, 20-ish, 25 wins, you're talking about a top...

18, 19 golfer of all time. And I don't think it's like a super hot take to say that

you know, Rom's going to win three majors and 20 times. And he's the 30th best golfer of all time. Like that's nuts. Like that's easily in the hall of fame. Like that's easily in the hall of fame. His look at Greg Norman's career. Greg Norman has 32 wins in two majors. I have Greg Norman currently as the 27th best golfer of all time. Yeah. That feels right for Rom. No. And I think he probably wins a little bit less than 32 times and gets three majors instead of two.

Right? No, I think that's fair. That's very fair. But I mean, I think you mentioned that the Greg Norman doc was excellent. That was excellent. Yeah. Oh, it was really good. I mean, I like how they went into, they didn't just focus. Everybody talks about the 96 matches, but I like how they went into some of the other majors that he kind of gagged away to. It was interesting. But yeah, I mean, listen, like,

I think we've come out of like a lot of these players and said like, you know, under on them. But like, if, like if these guys get to multiple majors, like. If you're going over on all these guys, I don't think you under, I don't think you get it because it just doesn't work that way. I mean, like I've had conversations. I remember, uh,

After Spieth won the Open in 2017, I was asking all my friends, over under 7.5 total. It looks ridiculous in hindsight. You just don't know what's going to happen. Not to mention, we have this pool of players right now, but

there's, there's like, I mentioned earlier, there's guys who are like 14, 15 right now who are going to be awesome at golf are going to come through too. And they're going to have to contend with them. You know, there's some other guys, young guys, like you got Cam Young, Saheeth, like those types of guys, like maybe they end up being something too. Like it just, there's, it just feels like it's so much different than when like I was a kid when like, like, you know, when,

when Tiger first came in, like obviously he won everything, but it just, it just seemed like it was five guys. You had Tiger, you had Phil, you had Ernie and Vijay, and then Rati for a little bit. And then like, you know, maybe like your Adam Scott's and like Sergio's, but other than that, it was just a bunch of just schmucks. And I don't feel like that's the case anymore with this, like with the guys we have here. And like,

All these guys are great players, but God, how many times we go into a tournament where we're like, I want to bet everybody, but I can't. And you can make a case for everyone. So yeah, I think maybe some people are listening to this and they're like, oh, you only think it's only going to get one? Well, look at everybody else. He's got to take it from somebody. Yeah. It's funny because whoever was...

the 50th ranked player in the world in 2002. Like Alex Smalley is probably better than that guy. Yeah, probably. See Heath is probably better than that guy. Right. And I think see Heath is like ranked 160th in the world right now or something like that. So you're right. It's just, it's deep as it's ever been. And, uh, and this brings us to our final guy. Yeah.

We're going to make some people mad, aren't we? Yeah. I mean, okay. I don't think there's a, this is, can be a whole separate podcast, right? We're, we're, but we're going to get it in an under two or close to two. Okay. Tiger woods. I just wanted to mention him 15.5 Steve. He's at, um, he's at 15. So does tiger woods win one more major? Did you start with ROM? Did I start with ROM? You started with ROM. I think I started with ROM. So yeah, you can, you can start with tiger. Okay.

Okay. So I will say this. I've warmed on him more so than when I did the podcast with Nagels in December and we touched on Tiger. I don't see a ton of logic. It's kind of a lose. Evaluating Tiger at this point, it's not even fun, really. It's almost like LeBron, but like

10 times X, where it's like, if you be the guy that doubts Tiger, you just look like an asshole. And everyone's like, this isn't fun to be that guy. And oh, how can you doubt him? He did this, and then he did this, and then he did this. And if you're right, it's not fun because everyone's rooting for Tiger. And if you're wrong, you're just going to get dunked on. And so it's like, you kind of have this...

trump card with Tiger where in terms of content, you might as well just say you're high on him, but you know me, Steve. I'm going to call it like I see it. I take the under. I'm a little more bullish on him long-term in the sense that I didn't underestimate his drive,

I underestimated how quick the recovery was, though. Right. Like and I and I underestimated that. I thought the first time we were going to see him was St. Andrews. Hand up on that when I was wrong. After the Masters, I thought it was 50 50 that he would play Southern Hills again. Hand up on that one that I was wrong. Right.

In terms of course fit, I don't think he's ever going to contend in another US Open. I think there is a universe for him at an Open Championship and a Masters where maybe there's a year at the Masters where the conditions are super, super brutal and he's

which is kind of how he, the way he won in 2019 was by out thinking everyone. He's still, his mental game is still miles ahead of every other players. And especially on nuanced courses that require a lot of thought, like an Augusta, like some of the courses on the open Rota, there's a universe where tiger puts it all together for one week and it's tough conditions. And he just out thinks his competition and,

It's possible. I just, I don't think it's going to happen. So I will take the under. Yeah. I mean, I think we have to consider he's 46 years old. So the window is very small. Well, wouldn't you say, wouldn't you say though, Steve, I've been wrong about this. Don't you think he's probably going to play four tournaments a year for the next eight years?

Yeah, but like, I mean, there comes a point where I think you just nailed it. Like is a 52 year old Tiger Woods with seven back surgeries and maybe having some more, you know, between now and then. Yeah. It's going to play well at PGA or US Open. So that's kind of a young man's game now. I don't think so.

I agree. You'd be surprised how many people disagree with us though. Well, of course. I know you're not on Twitter. Of course there is. I mean, they're all, like you said, it's, I don't like being on this side and like, I don't like having to be like, you know, the turn the punch bowl and, you know, trying to say, okay, while we manage expectations for Tiger Woods about this stuff, I think there's a fair way to talk about it. And, um,

I just, I don't think the direction of PGA is going in the U S opens going. I mean, he's not getting any longer off the tee. So those places, even if I think the U S opens are changing a little bit of their strategy, as far as like core setup and like some of these places are going to like, it's still going to be just, I mean, it's, it's not going to work out for him. So you're looking at the masters, which by the way,

as someone who walked the course and has not had as many injuries. Did you catch any of him, Steve? I saw a little bit. I tried to stay away because everybody would follow him. I tried to basically position myself to where I could see more of the course and more groups to come through. I was right there. I saw him walk past me on 18. He looked gas on that Saturday. It was brutal for everybody, but

props to him for walking that property. It's way tougher of a walk than I ever thought it would be. I know people say it's hilly. It's way hiller than it looks on TV. And that was impressive. It's just, it's not going to get any easier for him as he ages. You know, there's the, the back is a ticking time bomb. You never know if that's going to go out again. So I don't know how much longer we have with him. I think you're right. It probably would come in an open championship. Yeah.

But even then, like, I think just so many things have to go perfectly for him over four days. And I, at this point, I think if we get him contending at a top 10, I think we should appreciate it. I think we should admire it. But to, you know, if we, if we come away from like a masters and open, like he's not winning and stuff like that, like it's, that's an unfair expectation to set on him at this point. So yeah,

I think it's going to be under. I hope I'm wrong. That would be great. I mean, it was not fun being on in 2019, like as a gambler, not having any shares of Tiger and kind of, because I had Brooks and I had Xander. I was rooting against Tiger. I don't want to be that guy again. Like it would be fun to see him win again, but I just, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't know. I think it's, the window might be shorter than what we realized with him.

I think the fact that he's on this list and it's a conversation is a massive testament to,

to him and our already belief in him. I'll be honest with you. I don't know if I would have included him on this list. If he didn't make the cut at the masters, like he was top 10 heading into the weekend. It was so. And if he didn't look good at the masters, I don't even think I would have bothered putting him on the list. So we're both saying under, but acknowledging that there's a universe where it happens. Like, let me ask you a question. Um,

Do you think you'll ever wager another dollar on him? Like what would happen? What if he finishes like 22nd at the PGA and gains like six strokes on approach and loses like three strokes putting? I mean, I, I think I'm still only only a top 20 or like a made cut prop on him. I just, I,

I mean, like the books are, they're still setting them. I think for Southern Hills at like 50 to one. He's 8,200 on DraftKings, which is loony tunes. What are we doing? Loony tunes. Come on. And you know what? This is going to actually sound pretty great when he wins Southern Hills and this comes out next week. Literally. Yeah. Tiger Woods, loony tunes, DraftKings price for Southern Hills.

We've done about two hours on the dot. I'm going to run you through six super rapid fire guys. I want you to just go over under on these guys. Sam Burns over under 1.5. Over. Hmm. I think the kid's legit and he's only 25. I think he's got a lot of skills in his arsenal. I think he's going to pop in a big way very soon. Okay. I went under, but I respect that take. Will Zalatoris 1.5 over under.

we were under i went like that okay i think i think the putter still kind of scares me a little bit i know it's been better but it scares me who do you think is so you think zelda torres is our burns is better career than zelda torres i think so i think burns you're probably right it's close though god burns just had so many ways of like just getting around scoring a golf course too and i i think like he's finally getting together i i i think he's gonna be a stud

horrendous at majors so far though that is true but it's couldn't you see him have the type of career where it's all said and done and burns has 20 pga tour wins and zero majors it could be or like maybe like yeah or like maybe like a dj career it's like you know 22 wins like one major or something like that right you know something like that yeah um neiman 1.5 under but i got a soft spot for him

I like Neiman. I think Neiman's really good. I think he might be the best of the three. I went over. Yeah, if you can win a Riviera, you can win anywhere. I just put him at one, though. But yeah, I think he'll win. Tony Finau, 0.5. So this will come out after the semifinals. I kind of like it next week. Yeah, me too. But I'm going to go under. But I would not be surprised if he ends up on my betting card.

Yeah, me too. 50 to 1 or something like that. Yeah. Probably. I went over with Fidel. I think there's one magical week. I like him at the Masters. I like him everywhere. He's like 50% major top 10 percentage. He's good on these. He's been good overseas too. I think he gets one. He's 30-ish, I think. Sung J.M., 1.5. I'm a little under. Yeah, me too. I struggle. And I answer that question with Rob. I struggle with...

What Sungjae, what's his identity as far as who he is as a golfer? He hits a lot of fairways, but it seems like when I look at his trending table, I'll remember from six months ago, he was way up in putting and now he's just way down. It just seems like he's kind of all over the map sometimes. Right. Patrick Reed, 1.5. Does Reed get another one? Is he still rocking a PXG driver?

He's a good candidate for maybe he just falls off the face of the planet. I mean, I don't think he'll ever... I don't think Justine will ever fall off the face of the planet, but I went under. I think he's a decent candidate where maybe the game's just passed him by a little bit. He's really short. We talk about how...

Spieth and Morikawa actually have underrated distance because they get stacked up against the other elite players. Patrick Reed, hasn't he lost distance with the PSG? That driver, he's rocky. It's bad. I think it's only $300 to retail. It's not good. He just is not a good ball... Relative to everybody else, he's just not a good ball striker and

His major record, other than that stretch from 2017 to 2018, it's not great. Listen, maybe we're being a prisoner of the moment. He's 32 years old and has won nine times on the PGA Tour and a lot of tough golf courses. He's probably going to be that dickbag that plays the Masters until he's 67. Yeah.

But I don't think he wins another major. That's all I got, Steve. Anything else before we get out of here, my friend? Before we start diving into, like, Zahid Tagal over-unders.

Yeah, that's the after show, basically. That's part two. Yep, definitely. No, I think we said we were going to try to keep this an hour, hour and a half, and we went to two hours, as I thought we would. No, this was great. I appreciate me having on. This was a lot of fun, and maybe we can revisit this in five years or something. Oh, we should. We should. I was going to say I can write all of this down at the end. There's no real way for...

in terms of us having a bet on this to see who gets more right. Like it is, I hope we're still, I'm optimistic. We'll still be friends. Yeah. I'm optimistic. We'll still be friends, but yeah, I thought, um, if you guys like this podcast, let us know and we'll do more stuff like this. I'm always trying to think of, uh, new and different ideas to kind of switch things up. I had a blast doing this. This is probably a, um, a precursor for, uh,

another two hour pod that we brought up that we're going to do this again on Monday. Right. We're up. This already is war that will have already happened, but yeah, I'm excited for that. Yeah. Over under 95 minutes for the Southern girls podcast. We're going to do.

95 sounds about right. No, no Eagles. Yeah. 95 sounds about right. Um, anyway, uh, do you have, where can they find you? I guess you're plugging your colonial pod.

Yes. So after hopefully a very successful PGA Championship betting card, we will be doing our Colonial coverage this week on the Golf Gambling Podcast. We record three times a week, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday. You can also find me on the Slack channel on SGP. There's a link at the bottom of all my columns.

um, where he can join the fun. And, uh, I know you guys have a Slack show too on a Rick run good. I'm glad you guys are in the Slack show game. It's a great community to with a good minds, just banter about golf or whatever you want. So yeah, come join us. Did you mention your articles too? Like you write great course preview articles. Yes. Yes. My course preview articles, uh, they come out every Sunday as well. So yeah, it's at the bottom of that column. You can, uh,

Yeah. You know, go read it. I'll break down the golf course. I'll give you tips on what you should look for. And then we'll banter about on the podcast. So again, thank you, Andy Lack. It's always a pleasure, pleasure to be on the podcast. It's a lot of fun and appreciate you having me on. Steve. Good to see you, buddy. We'll talk soon, my friend. All right. That is it for the podcast. Special thanks to Twitterless Steve. Special thanks to RickRungood.com. We'll be back on Sunday.

breaking down the Memorial Mirafield Village. Until then, best of luck with your bets this week, and we'll see you next time. Cheers.

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