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Okay. Inside golf podcast with Andy whack. I'm recording this early on Sunday morning. I'm going to try and get this out a little bit earlier because this week's tournament, the farmer's insurance open starts on Wednesday and finishes on Saturday, which throws everything into a little bit of a loop. Um, I'm going to try and get the Tuesday show out on Monday night. Um,
We'll try. We'll try. We'll see. But it's going to be a really busy week this week. I will be on with my good friends, Boston Capper and Twitterless Steve on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network doing their show. I'm actually going to be on local San Diego television this week previewing the Farmers. Don't ask me how that happened, but that should be fun. And I'm
Then the scramble this week will still be Tuesday and Friday, but one hour earlier, 11 a.m. Eastern instead of noon. Basically, so Rick and I can spend more time on Friday at Torrey Pines.
But I think that's it for me at the top. I don't really have an opening monologue or any housekeeping to get to. But I do happen to have a ton of good info on this tournament, and it's a tournament I am extremely excited about. So let's dive right in.
All right, the Farmers Insurance Open. A lot of people say this feels like opening day. I can't argue with that. This is a big tournament. It's a really good field. Yes, we have seen a lot of the elites already at Kapalua, but that was a bit of a scrimmage. This is a real tournament on a real golf course, not a good golf course, but a long golf course that...
definitely going to be a better barometer for where guys are at compared to Kapalula. I will be going to this tournament. I love San Diego, have a lot of high school friends still out there. I'm excited to play golf with my good buddy, Ken Nagel, shout out Kennergy. I'm going to meet up with Rob up there, going to meet up with my co-host Rick Gaiman up there. So I'm incredibly excited for this tournament, even though I don't like this golf course at all. But
both from an architecture standpoint and from a spectator standpoint. This is really a terrible event to go to for a spectator. The routing of the course based on where the parking lot is and where you enter is very convoluted and inconvenient. And yet I still, for some crazy reason, absolutely love this tournament. I've been here three times. I know the course really well. Most of the holes are the same and,
Uh, but I feel like I have a really good beat on this course. I went back and, uh, check my records. And this was actually before I had, uh, a podcast or any Twitter presence. Uh, but I still have everything recorded. So I went back and looked, did not bet Patrick Reed here. I know a bunch of people hit the readout, right? I was not lucky enough to hit the readout. Right. Um,
But I nailed almost all my matchups and finishing position bets. And I crushed the US Open too. That was my first decent score in DraftKings. Shout out 1% Francesco Molinari, T13. So I think this is a relatively easy tournament to figure out. I don't think this is one of those tournaments like last week at the Amex where...
Every single player in the field can win. I do think you have to possess a certain skill set here. But it's a complicated question, right? Because I found some exceptions to that as well, which I will absolutely elaborate on. But let's dive in. So this tournament was founded in 1952. It was held at Torrey Pines until 1968.
But since 19, it wasn't held at Torrey Pines until 1968. Sorry, but since 1968, we've been going to Torrey Pines, a 36 hole public golf facility owned by the city of San Diego. They have a North course and a South course. The South course is a lot harder. It's a lot longer. That's where they have the U S open and players will split the first 36 holes between the North and South courses. And then they will play the final 36 holes between,
On the South course. So you get three rounds at the South course. And for the most part, you want to be looking at the South course. We'll talk about the North course a little bit too, but for the most part with three rounds, uh, three or four rounds on the South, that's where the majority of my stats will be from. That's obviously the more important of the two was 75% of the tournament held on the South course.
All right. Former winners here. So Patrick Reed won last year at 14 under over Tony Finau, Victor Hovland, Henrik Norlander, Ryan Palmer, Xander Shoffley. He won by five strokes.
2020, I went to that one. Mark Leishman won at 15 under over Jon Rahm. 2019, Justin Rose, 21 under over Adam Scott. 2018, Jason Day. 2017, Jon Rahm. 2016, Brant Snedeker. 2015, Jason Day. 2014, Scott Stallings. 2013, Tiger Woods. 2012, Brant Snedeker. So,
At a bird's eye view, right? Snedeker is really the only surprising one. The fact that Snedeker has won on this course twice, where the vast majority of everyone else that has won here or played here are,
elite drivers of the ball and elite long iron players. Occasionally you will get the Patrick Reed, Alex Noren type who just chip everything in. But for the most part, this is a Tony Finau course. It's a John Rahm course. It's a Jason Day in his prime course. It's a Victor Hovland course. And I dug into this a little bit. So both times that Snedeker won,
He lost strokes off the tee. Hard to imagine you can do that and win at Torrey, but it's possible because he gained a ton around the green and putting, and he was awesome on the much easier North course. So that's the formula, right? Like 2016, uh,
In brutal conditions, he shot 69 on the north course. 2012 in easier conditions, he shot 64 on the north course. So there is a formula to win here without being a John Rahm or a Jason Day off the tee. But you have to be awesome around the green and you have to hope for harder conditions so more players are relying on their short game like last year with Reed. It didn't play as hard as the second Snedeker year, but
last year it played harder than it has the last couple of years and you have to go low on the south course which is usually pretty gettable but reed gained 8.4 around the green and putting last year noren finished second a couple years ago mckenzie hughes led the u.s open on the weekend so one thing that i think is really important that i can't emphasize enough especially for draft kings
You are going to hear a lot, I'm making a content prediction here, that there are a lot of players that simply cannot win at this course. And I don't necessarily think that's true. There are certain players that may have much easier roadmaps. But for example, if Bryson DeChambeau or Xander Shoffley is 25% ownership and Spieth is 5%,
Do Xander and Bryson have an easier roadmap than Spieth here because of their length? Of course. But is that roadmap five times easier than Spieth, right? Are they five times more likely to outperform Spieth over 72 holes of golf?
The answer is they're not. And that's why I had to pivot off of Webb at the Sony, right? Like in my handicapping process, air quotes, I really liked Webb. And I actually didn't really like Hideki at all. But Webb was pushing 30%. And Hideki was like 6%.
So that's where you have to say, okay, do I really like Webb five times more than I like Hideki, right? Is it realistic that in 72 holes of golf, the sport with arguably the most variance you will find that Webb beats Hideki 80% of the time that they play?
Right. Like you have to be willing to pivot in DraftKings. It's just it's a much different game than handicapping. Right. You have to get comfortable sometimes playing guys that have some red cards.
on their screen on fantasy national, right? You have to get comfortable playing guys that maybe didn't pop for you in your handicapping process, because it's really just a game of leverage at the end of the day. So I think it will be a really good draft Kings week because it's
Any week where there is groupthink and a prevailing narrative in the industry formulates. Those are the weeks that tends to do pretty well because it usually creates some leverage opportunity if opportunities, if you're willing to push back just a little. Okay. Let's talk about the courses. So Torrey Pines North, as I mentioned, the easier one.
was designed in 1957 by William Bell with a 2016 renovation by Tom Weiskopf. It's a par 72 measuring 7,258 yards. The fairways are Bermuda grass overseeded with rye. The rough is Kikuyu. I hate Kikuyu.
with ryegrass three inches. So pretty thick rough, kukuya rough, which can get really squirmy. 6,000 square foot greens that are bank grass. That's another big thing to note. The South course has pollo greens, but the North course features pure bank grass greens. And the North course actually typically ranks as one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour. So two of the last three years, it's ranked inside the top 10 in
in easiest scoring average. It's pretty short by tour standards, and it features four really gettable par fives, right? None of them are over 556 yards. They are all reachable by pretty much everyone in the field. There are two drivable par fours. Seven holes on that course have above a 25% birdie rate. The greens are a lot easier to hit here than the south. It's a short enough course that
You can take driver a lot here and not be super concerned if you don't hit the fairway because, you know, similar to the Bryson method at winged foot, if you're hitting wedges out of this rough, that's fine. The fairways are pretty narrow here anyway, so most players are already missing them. And if you want to account for a little more North Core stuff, like
I think par fives are going to be really important at the North course, right? So take a look at par five scoring, really important that you take advantage of the par fives on the North course and the South course for that matter, but especially the North, the South course, on the other hand, was designed in 1957 by William Bell as well with a Reese Jones redesign, both in 2001 and in 2019 and,
It's a par 72 measuring 7,765 yards. Bermuda grass fairways overseeded with ryegrass. Kikuyu grass with ryegrass rough measuring three inches. 5,000 square foot greens with poa annua that run 11.5 on the stem.
26-yard wide fairways that are very narrow by tour standards, more narrow than Wiley, more narrow than TPC Stadium. They're under half the size of the plantation course. So it's really hard to hit the fairways here. Driving accuracy is only 52% compared to the tour average of 62%. And it's really hard to hit the greens here. Greens and regulation percentage, 62% compared to the tour average of 66%.
And guess what? It's really hard to get up and down here too. Scrambling percentage here is only 51% compared to the tour average of 58. Add all that up together and Torrey Pines South annually ranks as one of the top 10 most difficult courses on the schedule. So here's the thing about Torrey Pines and Reese Jones designs in general, which I have played a lot of. He designed my home course here in Los Angeles and,
He just did a massive redesign of that course. So I've been on a couple members' Zoom calls with Reese. I got to ask him a couple questions that I'm sure he enjoyed. I have a complicated relationship with old Reese. I think that the work that he did on my home course is a lot more interesting than what he's done at Torrey Pines. Torrey Pines is...
It's a very strategically homogenous course right now. What do I mean when I say that it asks you to do the same thing pretty much over and over again, right? Um,
Which is why it's a course that you're never going to hear get talked about in architecture circles. But I think it serves a really nice purpose on the PGA Tour. I think it's a terrible US Open venue, but a really nice PGA Tour venue. And to get more specific, most of the part fours on this course are very similar. They're pretty straight away. Sometimes there's a slight dogleg, but for the most part, same strategy, right? Most of the part threes are very similar. And...
What Torrey Pines basically asks you to do over and over again is, can you hit your driver long and straight? Can you hit a high four iron and get it to stop on a smallish green? That is what you have to do, right? 14 seconds.
That's what you have to do at probably 14 out of 18 holes at Torrey Pines, right? Almost 50% of all approach shots this week come from over 175 yards. 27% come from over 200. I think that's the highest percentage on Tor, right? And seven of the par fours are over 450 yards. All the par threes are over 175. So it's basically asking you,
Do you have that shot in your arsenal? And guess what? John Rahm has that shot in his arsenal. In fact, he's one of the best long iron players in the world. Bryson has that shot in his arsenal. Brooks Koepka has that shot in his arsenal. Rory has that in his arsenal. Xander has that in his arsenal. Jason Day has that shot in his arsenal. Mark Leishman has
Finau, Hideki, Hovland, right? These are the types of players that can carry it 315 and can hit a high four iron. And that's the reason why you see good leaderboards at Torrey Pines, right? This isn't like the stadium course or Wiley where those guys' biggest advantage is somewhat mitigated, right? And your Brian Gaze and your Mark Wilsons have just as good of a chance to win.
Right. If you are long off the tee, if you are an elite iron player, you have a massive advantage at Torrey Pines. Doesn't mean that Patrick Reed can't win. Doesn't mean that Brant Snedeker can't win. But you better go low on the easier course and you better chip and put your ass off. OK, another thing I want to talk about is Poe Green's.
So, Poa is a really difficult surface to put on if you aren't familiar with it. There's a difference between West Coast Poa and East Coast Poa. East Coast Poa is usually blended with bentgrass, and you will see that a lot at U.S. open sites like Oakmont and Chinookock and Winged Foot. Even TPC River Highlands has it. It's very common in the Northeast. And West Coast Poa is that
dark green, almost patchy, splotchy surface that you see at Pebble Beach. Riviera is a little lighter, but that you see at Pebble Beach and at Torrey. And a lot of players really do not jive with POA. You're going to see a lot of misses inside five and 10 feet. It's more of an inconsistent surface than a pure bank grass and even a grainy Bermuda. That's why you see three putt percentage at Torrey Pines.
be way higher than tour average, despite these greens being very flat and not large. Um, they're not very undulating. They're not very interesting, not a lot of contours, but they still give players fits because guys just don't like POA. Uh, POA is, uh,
I've heard it been described before as a confidence surface, right? There are going to be times where you're going to see players miss a putt and look very surprised and blame it on their putter. And if you lose confidence on POA, you can just feel absolutely lost out there like you're putting on Mars. So, yeah,
I really think you want to look at players that have performed well on POA greens that are comfortable on POA greens. Some guys who have had some really nice success before on POA, uh,
Snedeker, Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, Adam Hadwin, Andrew Putnam, Patrick Rogers, Carlos Ortiz, Graham McDowell, John Rahm, Pat Perez, Maverick McNeely, Patrick Reed. And most of those guys are West Coast guys, right? Guys who grew up on this surface, guys who have been very good at Pebble and Riviera, right? Here's a quote from Mark Leishman. I grew up on this grass. I grew up on Kikuyu Fairways, Poa Greens,
I mean, it's very hit and miss. You either putt great on it or you just putt terribly. Well said. Jason Day. Obviously with POA, it adds a little bit more of a nervous feeling when you hit certain putts. I would say that's accurate as well. Brant Snedeker. What I love most about POA is you have to be aggressive and you have got to hit a putt almost perfect.
You got to give it a chance to go in. You got to get it rolling hard on the green. That brings in the confidence aspect, right? That's why people call it a confidence surface. And I think that's why my stroke does best because I hit them very aggressive. I get the ball rolling really fast. When you do that, the ball holds its line. And if you miss a putt a little bit or hit a weak putt, it's going to bump off its line.
And I love it because it eliminates half the guys like Kevin Kisner. Kevin Kisner catching strays for Snedeker because they don't like it and they don't want to be on it. So it makes my putting even better because they don't want to be a part of it. And if they get a bad bounce, they think the greens are awful, which helps me. That's from Brant Snedeker.
This is true. There are some guys that just hate POA and most of those guys aren't playing in this tournament. So I think being comfortable on POA is really, really important. I have about a 12 to 15% weight on it on my model. Same thing with Kikuyu rough. It's just different, right?
50% of the time the ball sits up like it's on a tee. The other 50% of the time it sits down and it's really hard to get the club face on. So if you're not used to it, it's going to be really frustrating. Trust me. One more thing, one or two more things, and we'll get to my model and early lanes. I think a lot of people are going to ask how this compares to the U S open, right? That we had last year in June. And there are a few notable differences, right? So, uh,
Torrey's actually going to play longer this time of year than it did at the U S open. Now longer does not mean harder, but because of the Marine layer and how much colder it is this time of year in San Diego than it is in June, the ball isn't going to travel as far in the air and fairways and greens aren't going to be as baked out, right? So you're going to get less rollout and shorter carry distance, but it's going to be easier to hold the greens. So just keep in mind, if you're comparing this to the U S open, um,
I think it's still a valuable thing to look at. I'm looking at, but it's a bit of a...
It's a bit of a different golf course. I would actually make the argument that distance is more important this week than it was at the U.S. Open. Like you saw Brian Harmon. I was trying to go back and find some quotes. And Brian Harmon talked about, yeah, I have a better time competing at a U.S. Open at Torrey Pines than I do at the Farmers because they actually bake the golf course out. So if I'm hitting the fairways, I'm an accurate driver of the ball. I can get some serious rollout.
Um, this time of year, it's going to play longer, right? But not harder. As I mentioned, I think distance is a little more important and iron play while still the most important stat this weekend, every week players will have a little bit of an easier time holding these greens with long irons this time of year than they did at the U S open.
Um, remember I harp on this every single week. Length is not what makes courses more difficult for pros. What makes courses more difficult for pros is firm and fast conditions, right? And it will not play as firm and fast as it did the week of the U S open in June. It'll still play firm, but not U S open end of June, firm and fast. Another thing to touch on, you look at the past odds of the winners here.
Outside of Scott Stallings in 2014, every winner in the last 10 years has been under 60 to 1.
Even both of Snedeker's wins. Like they came at times when Snedeker was playing really, really good golf. He was like 20 to one in both appearances. And both times that Jason day one, he was under 22 to one. Rose was 14 to one. Rom Leishman read. They were in the 40 to 60 range. But even so, none of them were total shockers. And I think this makes sense with pretty much everything we've been talking about, right? If you have a,
a very specific skill set of being long and accurate and an elite long iron player. Your path here is a lot easier than everyone else. And the players that populate the top of the official world golf rankings are uncoincidentally long,
The players that tend to possess that skill set, what do you know, right? So it makes perfect sense that we've seen a lot of favorites, a lot of elites win here. Last week, I bet five guys over 151. Not going to do that this week, right? This is definitely going to be a week where you probably want to gravitate more so towards the top of the board. In fact, I may bet two guys in the 18 to 30 range and call it a day.
So to summarize, here's what you want to look at. Are you long and accurate off the tee? Accuracy is not a must if you are long, but if you're not long, you better be straight because if you're hitting four irons out of Kikuyu, that's not a recipe for success here. Are you a good long iron player, right? Who are the best in the world from 175 yards plus?
Can you get up and down? This is less critical if you're a really good iron player, obviously. But if you're not a really good iron player, getting up and down becomes very, very critical. Are you comfortable on Poe of Greens? Super, super, super important this week. Can you take advantage of par fives and avoid bogeys on those long par threes and par fours?
And have you ideally played well at this course before and like this type of golf course, right? Have you been good on other long and difficult golf courses? Rahm in 2017 was actually the first player since 1957 to win on his debut appearance at Torrey.
So you definitely want to have some experience here. I'm not really looking at a ton of comp courses this week. I think probably the best is Riviera and Muirfield Village. Definitely a ton of crossover there in terms of the players that have been good at both courses. But it's not something I'm weighing personally. But if you want to look at those courses, I've got no problem with that. Okay, my model.
I really hate being like, this is my model. These are my units. I feel like it comes off as tacky. But two weeks ago when I said DM me if you want my full statistical breakdown, I got a ton of responses. So it seems like people really value when I actually give feedback.
the percentage breakdown of exactly what I'm weighing. So they can either do something very similar or take the stuff that they like and scrap the stuff they don't like and go in a different direction. It's all up to you. You can do whatever you want. I'm not a tout. I am not a handicapper. I'm an architecture guy. I'm a data and information guy. So hopefully you can use my information and make your own decisions.
Okay, here's what I got. So I have an 18% weighted combination of strokes gain off the tee and driving distance over a large sample size. I have a 32% weight on strokes gain approach, proximity, 175 to 200 yards, 200 yards plus. Weighted combination of that, 32%. Short game, 12%, strokes gain around the greens.
Strokes game putting on PO at 13%. And then scoring stats I have as 15%. So par 5 scoring combined with average strokes gained per round on long courses. Those are courses over 7,400 yards. Average strokes gained per round in difficult scoring conditions. And 10% on history at Torrey Pines. So a lot more simple than Wiley where I thought there were a ton of
ton of comp courses and stuff that I wanted to look at. I really think long iron play, long and accurate off the tee is your driver weapon, short game, POA putting. That's it. That's the formula this week. So here were the top 20 of my, or we'll do top 10. A couple big surprises. No surprise at the top, Jon Rahm.
Number two is Luke List, which I back-checked a lot of times and I may end up ignoring. But he is where he's supposed to be. Shockingly elite short game and great poet putter, Luke List.
Daniel Berger was number three, who I was a little surprised about too because Torrey doesn't seem like a Berger course, right? And he hasn't had a ton of success here, but we'll get to Berger in a second. I want to talk more about Berger. Number four, Justin Thomas. Again, number four.
Torrey, I don't think Justin Thomas isn't the first guy that comes to mind when I think Torrey. So I was a little surprised to see JT pop up as number four ahead of guys like Bryson and Xander. And I'll explain why.
Taylor Gooch, number five. I think that makes a lot of sense in my opinion. Hideki Matsuyama, number six. I think that makes a lot of sense. Zalatoris, number seven. I think that makes a lot of sense too. I love this course for Zalatoris and he's played well here. Number eight, Bryson. Makes a lot of sense. Good course for Bryson. Number nine, Sung J.M. Number 10, Xander Shoffley.
Makes a lot of sense, right? Good course for Xander Shoffley. I'll do 11 through 20 really quick too. Maverick McNeely, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson, Jonathan Vegas, Patrick Rogers, Joseph Bramlett, Adam Svensson, Mark Leishman, Carlos Ortiz. So may have some gems in there to go to. But let's talk about the early wins. So I mentioned earlier that...
I am cluing in on the top of the board, right? I don't really see myself betting anyone above 40 to one this week. I'll have some top forties and there's some, you know, DFS guys that I'm looking at that, that I can talk about a little bit, but you know, the first guy that I really want to make a priority, I think there's a chance you could get 30 plus on burger in this field. And if that's the case, I will be there. And I'm not a burger guy. Um,
I don't think I've, I hit him at Pebble Beach and I'm not sure if I've bet him since, to be honest with you. And in four appearances here, he's gone 24th, miscut, miscut, miscut. But he finished seventh at the US Open at Torrey Pines this year while gaining strokes in all four major categories, including 6.7 on approach. So US Open here, he gained 6.7 on approach. So I was trying to figure out why Berger rated out so well for me here.
He's not particularly long or elite off the tee, but he makes up for it by currently being, over a large sample size, the best iron player in the field. Berger has become the most underrated iron player in the world, right? I said underrated, not best. He's not as good as Colin, but over a pretty large sample size, like...
He's passed JT. He's been a better iron player than JT for over a year. And he's specifically awesome from 175 yards plus. Great long iron player. Criminally underrated long iron player. Decent short game. And then really, really, really good POA putter. He's won before on POA at Pebble Beach.
solid on par fives good enough on long courses because he's such a good long iron player and he's actually fourth on the entire pga tour in difficult scoring conditions over a pretty large sample size right so again surprising you you think of bird you know he can go low in his birdie fest but he's been really good in harder scoring conditions and i think that's starting to show because he's starting to pop up at more majors so i low-key think this is an incredible course for him um
And he had a very understated fifth in Hawaii. So he's got some reps in. He probably actually could have won. I mean, he still kind of contended over the weekend. That was Saturday at least, but he lost 3.7 strokes putting at Kapalua, gained 1.8 off the tee and 6.4 on approach. Yeah.
It's actually, this is one of the more underrated iron runs in recent memory. He hasn't lost strokes on approach in a year. And he's not just marginally gaining like half the time he's gaining over four or five on approach. So I think Berger, I think Berger is alive here. He's a priority for me. So then again,
There's this next tier where I'm hoping if I can get Berger in the 30s, there's three guys that I really like. There's a chance they're all below 20 to one. There's also a chance that one of them is in the 20s. And I think how I'm going to break that up is I'm going to take the two guys with the better odds. And if I can get like a
an 18, a 22 and a 30 on burger call it a day. Um, but Justin Thomas, right? Justin Thomas. So again, don't think of JT as much at Torrey Pines for whatever reason. He doesn't play here a lot, right? He, he hasn't played here since 2015. He's only played the farmers twice. He went 10th and miscut in 2014 and 2015. Um,
He did finish 19th at the U.S. Open here, and he actually gained five strokes putting, which is really encouraging, right? Because JT is a confidence putter, right? When he doesn't have it, he really, really doesn't have it. So I like the fact that he's shown he can putt really well at Torrey Pines on these greens, which a lot of players really don't like. I didn't expect him to rate out as well as he did, but he's good enough off the tee,
You don't have to hit fairways here if you are long and JT is long enough. He's still an amazing iron player and he's a really, really great long iron player too. He's 11th on tour in proximity 200 yards plus over a large sample size. He's got a really good short game, underrated short game.
He's been solid on POA, good on par fives, fourth on the PGA tour over a large sample size on long golf courses. And that's because he's a great long iron player, great and difficult scoring conditions as well. It's,
It's a little surprising to me that he hasn't played here more because I really underratedly like this course for him. And he's been a lot better than people think. I think his recent form is actually really underrated. His last 10 starts hasn't finished worse than 42nd with four top fives in his last 10. He hasn't got you four top fives in his last six, including a contending performance at the my Coba and,
You know, he didn't really contend at the century, but he was awesome. He gained 4.3 ball striking, 2.1 around the green, shot 61. JT's playing really good golf. JT's fine. And he's really due for a win. So I'm really, really hoping to get 20 plus on JT. He might get lost. Who knows? Maybe it's wishful thinking, but you got to price a deckie up these days, right?
You got the hometown narrative going with Xander Bryson. This is a great course for Bryson. There's the ROM thing. DJ's back, right? DJ typically tends to get a ton of respects. Um, even if the recent forum hasn't been there, they're really hesitant to let DJ drift. People love Sam Burns, Finau, Kepka. Kepka might be 35 to one here. He seriously might.
Um, so I think there's somebody that has to be in the mid twenties. Um,
And I'm hoping that JT and Berger are some guys that drift because they haven't really played well at this course. But my numbers and breakdown suggests that they really should play well at this course. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I'm really hoping for a good number on JT. So then the next two guys that I want to talk about the other two in that JT category for me, where I'm kind of going to let the number dictate it.
I like Xander. No surprise. Okay. I know six appearances here. He's only made two cuts, but the first three times came before he was Xander. And last year he finished second while gaining strokes in all four major categories, including 4.7 on approach and 5.1 putting. This was his best iron performance at story and his best putting performance as well. And then he finished seventh at the U S open and,
and led the field in ball striking. It was a delight to watch. He had it on a string at the US Open. I've watched Xander live, I think, four times in like a six-month stretch. And the way he hit the ball in the US Open, better than I've ever seen him hit it. Better than the Ryder Cup, which he was good at. Better than Northern Trust, where he shot 61.
Um, he had, he had it on command here at Torrey. Um, so he gained 10 strokes, ball striking and infamously lost 1.8 strokes putting because he was experimenting with the arm lock. Um, speaking of difficult scoring conditions, long golf courses and Poe greens. Here's what Xander's done at us opens fifth, sixth, third, fifth, seventh, pretty damn good. I think him and Ben Hogan, uh,
Only guys to finish top 10 and all five of their first U S opens. So Xander rates out great here. He's been awesome off the tee. Um, actually he hasn't been awesome off the tee, but he's plenty long. So even if the driver is a little wild, that should be okay here. Um, great iron player, although not particularly elite long iron player, his short game has been a bit of a concern lately, but he's had a lot of good success on POA and, um,
Despite the US Open armlock debacle, this is a surface that he grew up playing. He's from San Diego. He's putted very well on POA before, whether it be East Coast POA, West Coast POA. He's shown on many occasions, Shinnecock, winged foot, pebble, you know, that he understands this surface.
And you have to understand Poe and, and you can't, you can't get frustrated there. It's, it's, it's tough and it helps if you, you understand it and really have experience with it. And Xander's been playing on Poe his whole life. It's a pretty perfect course for him in terms of what it asks you to do. He's third on the PGA tour over a large sample size on long golf courses. He's second on the PGA tour over a large sample size in difficult scoring conditions.
So it was a bit of a surprise that he struggled at Torrey for so long. But I think he proved last year at the U.S. Open that and the second place finish at the Farmers that maybe he's shut the door on some of those demons and maybe he's figured Torrey out. And he's coming off. He got the reps in at Kapalua. He got the scrimmage. He finished 12th at Kapalua.
Game strokes off the tee. He was fine. You know, maybe a little disappointing because capital is such a good course for him. You know, since winning the Olympics, he's really just been okay. He hasn't really contended at all. And he feels really due for a big performance. He needs it. I need it. I need it. This is a really important tournament for him. I think he needs a win. And, and,
I would argue he needs to win more than any other elite. And to get it at Torrey would be pretty special. Now, that's a nice narrative, and I don't bet on narratives, right? Xander's my favorite player. I'm not going to bet him just because he's my favorite player. I actually prefer Justin Thomas and Daniel Berger over him. But Xander's right in that category with the next guy I'm going to talk about, Bryson.
where if the number is right and when I say right, I'm really hoping for 22, right? Again, wishful thinking. I could absolutely get there. At the very least, you've got to play him in DraftKings. There should be enough good players around him that unless he's really underpriced, he'll garner ownership because it's in San Diego and he garners ownership everywhere. But unless it's out of control, play Xander. Play Xander because he's going to have a really good week. Might not win,
My official pick to win as of Sunday could change is Daniel Berger, but Xander's going to play well. And if I can fit him in on my betting card, I will. I won't force it either though. Like if he's the same numbers, JT, I think I'd bet JT. Okay. So the last guy in this tier that I really like Bryson DeChambeau. Okay.
Back-to-back miscuts at Torrey in 2017 and 2018, but he had a very decent chance to win the U.S. Open this year. He ended up finishing 26th, but keep in mind he held a share of the lead on the back nine on Sunday.
He basically just had one terrible hole around the green, but he gained 5.2 strokes putting and 5.9 strokes off the tee. So he showed us at the U.S. Open, Bryson is very capable of dominating this course off the tee and catching fire on Poe Greeds. Also won at winged foot on Poe. Bryson rates out really well for me here. You know, he's the number one player in the world off the tee.
He's has been for a while. Longest player off the tee as well. Both of those things matter at Torrey Pines, right? Sometimes you get to courses where distance gets mitigated. That's not the case here. His irons haven't been great, but he's actually the number one player in proximity from 200 yards plus. And that is basically because he's
His distance, right? Because that's basically an eight iron for him when it's a six or a five iron for most other players. And his short game has been absolutely terrible lately. But he's had some really, really good success on Poe Greens. Number one par five player in the field. Pretty good on long courses, although not as dominant as you would think. But really, really awesome and difficult scoring conditions is Bryson.
I'm surprised he hasn't been better at this course. But we saw him contend at the US Open. So he was pretty bad at the TOC. He finished 25th, lost 3.3 off the tee, but his irons were good. He gained over 200 approach with his irons. Bryson's a complicated option, right? There is absolutely a ton to love about him. And at the very least, I will be plugging him in in draft kicks.
The short game might be a problem. Like, when do you start worrying about Bryson's short game? When he's lost strokes around the green in nine straight starts? Because that's what he's done. It's been terrible. And there's no signs that it's getting remotely better. So if his irons aren't on point, which they aren't always on point, I'm a little worried he's going to have a difficult time scrambling here.
But I also think in the same way in his wing foot, this is such a perfect course for him if he's playing well to just unleash. And it's one of those courses. This is one of those courses where I really do believe before anyone tees it up this week, Bryson starting on second base. I really do believe that. I do believe he has an advantage here. I might prefer JT and Berger a little more.
It's tight with Xander. But if the number is right, I would absolutely have no problem betting Bryson. And if the ownership and price is right, I will be pretty heavy on him in draft. Okay, so we're already up against the 45-minute mark. I try to want to always keep these under an hour. I'm not going to talk about some of the guys I like in the mid-tier in depth, although I like Keegan Bradley. I like Gary Woodland.
And I like Mav McNeely. I'll talk about these guys far more in depth in my Tuesday show with Sian Ajad. Actually, Wednesday show. What am I saying here? It's been a long morning. Monday show. We're going to try and get that out Monday morning. Sports Gambling Podcast Network. That show we're recording Monday night should be out late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Scramble Tuesday morning with Rick Gaiman.
who I will be hanging out with at Torrey. If you're at Torrey, come say hi to me and Rick. Odds Checker articles. Odds Checker articles have been...
I'm really happy with the feedback those have gotten. We've done really well in the matchups. And the outright ones, the outright ads, really fun for me to write. I think I'm probably getting too frisky with these long shots in the outright ones. But really fun to write. Really, really fun to write. So I love Odds Checker. They've been an incredible partner for me so far.
So that's it. That will do it. I just gave you all the places you'll be able to see me next week. Like I mentioned to summarize, hit your long irons. Well, right. Is your driver a weapon? Have you shown before you can put on POA, right? And if you're not an elite ball striker, is your short game elite, right? Are you Patrick Reed, Mackenzie Hughes, Alex Nord with your short game? And yeah,
I like JT. I like Berger. I like Xander. I like Bryson. It's going to be some combination of those guys and that's it. So I hope everyone has a great rest of your Sunday and I will catch you guys with all the rest of my content coming up this week. Cheers.
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