Farmers & Conference Championship Picks with Brian Kirschner
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Having the time of my life over there. Continue to be humbled and proud of the community that we are building. The discourse around Torrey Pines this morning. Electric stuff. We've got some folks on the grounds. A lot of weather stuff. A lot of caddy stuff in there.

Plus it's just the most fun place to talk golf. It's an active 24 seven golf community. You can ask me anything. That's where I'm posting all my info, all my nuggets, all my articles. So rump your sports.com promo code Andy to get you that 15% discount. We've got a golf only option. Try it out for a week and shoot me a message in that discord. If you do,

Let me know how I can help you get acquainted in any way possible, because we would love to have you as part of that community. All right. Coming up on this podcast, Brian Kersher, my best bud. We're going to talk about Torrey Pines, golf, life, football. It's all here. So without further ado, let's bring on Brian. All right. Brian Kersher's here. My best friend, host of the Tap and Birdie podcast.

You know, I'm so delighted to have you join me on Torrey Pines Week. This is my third podcast of the day. So but I I still feel like I have a plethora of takes to get out that I've been saving for you. But thank you so much for joining me today, man. How's your how's your Monday afternoon going?

It's good. Back into the grind of the old work week, classic boss needs something done before the end of the day. We kind of had to push this back a little bit. So I apologize for being a corporate slave. But it's crazy you called me your best friend because someone on Twitter yesterday actually questioned your friendship to me and was like, are you...

are you like actually friends with this guy, Brian Andy, and just randomly tagged you. So I don't know what that was about, but, um, there, there were some questions on Twitter as to whether or not we were actually friends. That guy's actually a really nice guy, by the way, just, he's like a big supporter of my content. Um,

RPS guy too. So shout out to Joseph. I really liked just, I think you're, I think this is a you problem. Like, I think this is people, people just look at your Twitter activity and are like, is this guy insane? Cause you know, cause Natalie, Natalie just joined Twitter mainly to troll me. And she sent me a couple of texts like, Hey, I was just on Twitter. Like, is Brian okay? Like, yeah,

Like, is he all right? Like, he's just nonstop paragraph tweeting about, like, the American Express, like, getting into arguments with LiveBots. But the thing about the amateur, that was what it was about. Because it's like that scene in Anchorman when Veronica says, yeah, I wanted to be an anchor. And Ron Burgundy's like, I thought that was a joke. Like, I thought we were joking.

about that. I actually wrote that down in my novel and said, that's a really funny joke. I genuinely didn't think that Dunlap wouldn't get the money. I thought that was genuinely not a serious thing. But that's truly one of the most egregious things I've ever heard, that he didn't get paid out for beating a full man field of professional golfers as a 20 year old.

Okay, so let's start there a little bit. We could do a little Amex recap. You had burns. I was terrified to text you during that final stretch. I played golf.

and got back when Burns was on 15, 16. So one of the first shots that I saw him hit was the water ball on 17. And I wasn't looking at the live odds throughout the day, but how are you feeling like during the middle part of that round, like,

your confidence in Burns was hedging ever in the realm of possibility for you just to give the listener some context. Nick Dunlop wins the American Express. He becomes the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour in over 30 years. It's this wild story. He's 400 to one, 500 to one. And he's playing in the final group with Justin Thomas and Sam Burns, which I think between the two of them have a combined potential.

20 wins on tour and Burns was your guy. Yeah. Yeah. No, that was a, that was a tough one, but at the end of the day, he didn't birdie two of the par fives. And, you know, at that point, um, he was even with Dunlap playing the final two holes, which were really tough, um, holds hardest on the course. So I think it would have been like, it sucked, but it would have been a lot worse if Burns had a two stroke lead at that point. And he really like had the tournament in his grasp.

I mean, anything could happen. He could have lost on 18 or 17, even, you know, with pars the way Dunlap was playing. But I mean, that was just an absolutely incredible performance. I know you said you were golfing, but the guy's wedge game was unbelievable. Like it seemed anytime he had 80 to 100 yards, he just absolutely stuck it.

But, you know, it kind of started how it happened exactly how I needed. Like he made a double and Sam Burns made a birdie. Like I couldn't ask for anything much better than that. But I mean, to do something that hasn't been done since 1991 and the last guy that did it was a top 10, top 15 golfer of all time, six time major champion, like truly one of the most prolific winners, most talented golfers to ever play the game.

With how many amateurs actually play PGA Tour events, it's unbelievable. And these amateurs that are coming up, it's like there are just too many to choose from. Like no one knows who's going to be the next guy. And for him to do that was incredible.

So you've had Sahith second place at the century, Benny on in brutal fashion, loses in a playoff at the Sony Open. And now Sam Burns is what? Probably the tournament favorite for four hours on Sunday before hitting one in the water on 17 to lose. Did you make money? Were you able to make money off of any of those?

No, no. And Sony was terrible. I know I told the story, but I hedged on Keegan. Oh, yeah. I had Keegan and hedged on Benioff. Yeah. So it was like that was even a double whammy. But I said, I'm not hedging this week just because anything could happen. And to lose an outright and then lose your hedge is, you know, it's OK. At the end of the day, you know, Nick Saban said it on the broadcast. You weren't watching, but he literally said,

they were like, you know, how do you, you know, how do you manage your expectations in this moment? What should Dunlap focus on? And he's like,

It's about the process. It's not about the end result. And I was like, hell yeah, Nick Saban. It's about the process, you know, and, you know, you just got to put yourself in the mix like Rory at majors and eventually you'll get one. But yeah, I mean, tough start to the year, but I think you would agree with this since we're so deep into golf betting. When someone wins over a hundred to one,

It's almost better because you never would have bet them in a million years. Yeah, you tip your cap. Yeah. If someone wins under 100, you could always talk yourself into why you should have been on him. And people you don't like in the industry are on him and that makes it worse. So when no one's on a winner and it's like 400 to 1, it makes it a little bit better. I would agree. I think...

We're both seeing the board. Well, I didn't really have a guy super in the mix. I was not on Burns or JT, although I talked about them on pods and thought about those Chuck, um, the Vic, Vic laughed the shit out of that one. I think, I think we both said JT would play well, but he couldn't win. So that's a big check. Right. We were both like JT could play well at the MX, definitely in the range of outcomes. Uh, but I think we were talking about this a little bit this morning too, is, uh,

We've seen these three pretty large long shot winners in the first three weeks. I think Chris Kirk was like 150. Grayson was in the 300, 400 range. Nick Dunlop in the 300, 400 range. Do you think this lasts or do you think this is a little bit of a blip in the radar? Because I have an opinion on this, but I'd like to hear your take first.

Yeah. I mean, I kind of went back to, to golf odds archives and just kind of looked and kind of saw. Is that a website? Yeah. You could look up historical golf odds from any tournament. And I couldn't find anything other than in like 2012, 2013, two guys from the field one. So back in the day, they didn't give odds for every single person. Only half the field had odds and the other half was in the field. So there was,

you know, Amex, you know, has a lot of long shot winners, but never could I see a long shot winning Century, a long shot winning Sony, and a long shot winning Amex. Like, all three long shots. And the PGA Tour, like, used to suck. They used to be like,

No, not as much talent as there is today. So no, I don't think it's possible for this to go on. But I think it's just a good reminder of how random golf is and how random 72 hole tournaments are and how there are so many talented golfers out there that can get hot for four days.

and win. And also, I mean, Liv won, obviously. Rom would have won all three of these events. Maybe Bryson would have won. Right. And Liv also wins because Nick Dunlop is not good. So you can also Vic Lap the PGA Tour being weak because how could they let an amateur win?

Exactly. No, I mean, they truly, I mean, the live season didn't even start and they've already made a massive impact on the PGA Tour this year. But I think moral of the story is no.

If this keeps happening, I mean, that would be pretty incredible. And I think, you know, we both agree if it happened this week, that would really be, we would need some soul searching to happen. It would be a major surprise for me if it happened this week, mainly because of the golf course. And that's nothing to take away from the awesomeness of the victories from Grayson and

Chris Kirk and Nick Dunlop, but Torrey Pines is going to have a way lower greens and regulation percentage in all three of those courses.

And what happens when you have a lower greens and regulation percentage, less putting variance, right? This is a golf course that typically rewards T to green skill a lot more than the previous three courses that we've seen. And what happens when you reward T to green skill? Well, it just so happens that the best players in the world are also really good from T to green. So that's why you typically tend to see better winners at Torrey Pines as opposed to kind of the 600 to one long shots that you've seen at the Amex in the past.

Torrey Pines has had actually six of the last 10 have been under 25 to one. So that could potentially hopefully be a good harbinger for us this week. And with that being said, I think these odds are terrible. I mean, I really do. And it's really frustrating because you have to imagine that the books have made a killing off of these last three weeks. I mean, Scheffler,

I think it was BetMGM, but 31% of their exposure was on Scotty Scheffler at a putting contest. Like, I don't know.

What are you guys doing? They got to be printing money off these events and they're putting Xander Shoffley at nine to one. Something doesn't add up to me. It doesn't feel fair. Yeah, no. And every single week, some majority of people hidden outright, whether or not they're in our golf Twitter bubble. But that is a loss for books. They're definitely still profitable for the week. But the fact that legitimately nobody-

has hit an outright. Some people like Chris Kirk, I'm sure maybe one, but like we're talking about less than,

I want to be conservative. Less than 20 people in total in the entire United States had Grayson Murray and Nick Dunlap. They couldn't have won more money these past two weeks. But in all seriousness, and I know we were joking about it before, but Rom not being here certainly hurts people.

the odds and in true, um, all honesty, because he would be four or five to one, all these guys that we want to bet would be pushed up. I think it hurts the odds. He doesn't hurt my excitement about the event. Yeah, no, I, I totally agree. But I think this is a scenario where what we like to do and betting on golf, like, I just don't think the odds board is super attractive this week. And,

And, you know, if you want a top guy, you're going to have to pay up for him. And I personally don't love a lot of these mid range guys that are normally pretty easy for me to bet. No one is really striking me fancy. And so it's just kind of a tough betting board to be completely honest. We'll get to the mid range because they're a bunch of mid range guys I want to talk to as well. But

Let's just talk Zandra can't lay home a Morikawa gun to your head. Yeah. I know you're foregoing the range. I'm probably not, although I don't feel great about it, but you have to pick one of those four guys. Who do you think in a vacuum is most likely to win between those four?

Yeah. So I actually don't think I'm forgoing this range. I definitely am betting at least one. You're going to do Homer Morikawa, I would imagine. Yeah. No, a hundred percent. I really like Colin this week. I know you, you like him as well, but this is actually a place that he's played well at in his two appearances. He's, he was good at the U S open and last year he,

I went back because I remember Colin vividly, for whatever reason, missing a ton of putts at this tournament last year and only finishing two strokes behind the leader. And I went back on it. He made a lot of long to mid-range putts, but he really struggled inside 10 feet here. Toughest course on tour inside 10 feet. Yeah. So I think, you know, the way...

He hit the ball at TOC the way he hit the ball here last year. His ability to make some longer putts here. And I really like the fact that he won Zozo. I don't think I'm on Colin if he didn't win the Zozo, but I think that instilled a lot of confidence in him that he didn't have given how long he went without a win. And I just think this is an event that he can win. So I like him the most out of these guys up top with home as a clear second.

And if you just zoom out and say,

all these numbers kind of stank, but which one stinks the least you could probably make the easiest case for Colin. I mean, I don't understand how call, I mean, Xander hasn't won in 18 months, Colin just won the Zozo and has won. He's just been a more prolific higher win rate than Xander over his career. And actually has like justice, stronger course history than Xander, to be honest, because Xander used to struggle here a bunch at the beginning. And,

Question for you. My only concern on Colin is, and there's a counterpoint to this too that I could raise because you could look at this both ways. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. I'm driving up to San Diego on Wednesday morning. From my understanding, I believe I sent a video to you guys in the group chat from one of my buddies that lives in Los Angeles. I mean, we're talking...

Extreme flooding. I'm in LA and it's been raining for three days straight from my understanding. Similar deal in San Diego. It's not going to rain once the tournament starts, but in the 24, 48 hours leading into it, it's going to be super, super wet and soggy.

So the golf course is going to play really, really long. Does that concern you a little bit more about calling the fact that a 7,700 yard golf course is now going to play like 8,000 yards? Yeah. Can I give some like strokes gain, you know, T time strokes gain wet golf course? I, and you know, this will, you know, go into later shots.

showdown strategies and wave flips. But I want guys to start on the north because the south is longer and it will be more dry. By the time we get to, right. So I'm almost positive that Collins starts on the north course. So I like that.

for him um i i will get my intern to confirm that i can i can pull that up too i actually got the media email buddy so i can give it all i can give it all to you man i can give you the interviews scheduled to also colin flying under the radar this week in terms of michael kim gets an interview on tuesday keegan bradley gets an interview i love andrew shofflett gets an interview no interview for colin more colin this week i can i can confirm my intern just uh let me know

that he does start on the North course along with Sahith, Cantley, Ludwig, Rose, Decky, um, Seth, Harry, so, but do you agree with that take? Cause I was marinating on that all day. Yeah. So I would absolutely tend to agree with you. I would want the, I would want guys to play North first, uh, because that golf course is 500 yards shorter. Yep. And so, uh,

It's even if it's wet and the ball isn't rolling as much, it's not going to play as long. The other counterpoint to the fact that wet, a wet golf course may be good for Colin is the,

The fairways are going to be easier to hit if it's wet. It's not going to be rolling as far. So these super, super narrow fairways that are typically impossible to hit, you're not going to get as much rollout out of the fairways. You're not going to get as many balls rolling into a loft. So that's going to make the fairways play wider. And you want the fairways to play a little wider for somebody like Colin Morikawa and not have it be so much of a crapshoot. Because under normal conditions at Torrey Pines,

accuracy kind of gets devalued, right? Because it's like even the most accurate players, it's a 50-50 proposition for even the most accurate guys. If you're hitting fairways with how narrow these are, and that's how you get the Oak Hill and winged foot where distance really matters.

If the fairways play a little wider because of the wetness, that can actually play into Colin's hands. And I think the good thing about Colin too is like, he's one of the best long iron players out of the rough in the world too. So Colin doesn't have to hit a million fairways to still win at Torrey Pines. So I think I'm with you. Like I'm leaning Colin, uh,

slightly over Homa as we stand here on Monday afternoon. But I mean, I, I just, I really strongly oppose the Xander can't lie thing at the top because I, I was telling you in our group chat on Sunday afternoon that

can't lay off such a bad taste in everyone's mouth with that 76. He shot it. What happened? Like genuinely, that is embarrassing. I haven't done the deep dive on it to figure out what exactly it was. He lost strokes in every major category, which is more concerning than like, if he had a couple bad holes, it was, he just, he made a lot of bogeys. Like it wasn't one, he didn't have an eight or a nine on any holes. It was kind of a slow burn, which I,

It kind of almost reminded us of that can't lay around at the Travelers, remember? Where sometimes the guy just gets...

body snatched. Yeah. I mean, he could have been out with the CEOs the night before, you know, looking at investments and new sponsors and stuff. But yeah, no, that was an embarrassing round. And I also, his course history here is not anything special. I think he, I think he top 20 that the U S open here, but other than that, he has not been good at the farmer's insurance open. Okay. So, um,

Ludwig, Sungjae, Minwoo, Jason Day, Finau, Keegan, Sahith. I'll say this. I think Sahith at 40 is the best number, but in the sense of, do any of these guys...

make me so inclined to collect them over just paying up for home, home, a Colin, especially if I could do home or Colin and then get the guy that I want at 50 to one, probably going to forego this whole range. But if I had to make a bet in here, it would be Sahith or Finau 28.

Yeah, I mean, again, this is kind of what I was talking about. This range does not excite me at all. I'm actually completely out on Ludwig this week. I don't think his long iron game is strong enough. Fair take. Like, I just don't, I don't think...

Ludwig is it this week? Sanjay locked to finish T7. Absolute mortal. He will finish T7 this week. That's a guarantee. Minwu, I'm fading Minwu. If I could get a Sanjay over Minwu matchup, I'm all in on that. Kyle's not going to love this. What's your beef with Minwu? When you were on your podcast, we legit argued about Minwu for like 20 minutes. But I just, the guy's a terrible iron player. And I don't think this is the course that

you could do that at. And, you know, some of his better results have been on more wide open, you know, courses. Like I just, I don't like Oak Hill where he finished top 20. We were arguing about it. Like he lost four strokes on the pub on, on approach and legitimately gained like 10 around the green and putting, you can do that here. But even when like leash and read one, they still gained on approach. So for whatever reason is just extremely overvalued.

in the betting market because you like post Instagram reels and stuff. Like I'm in at the U S open at 80 to one, but I don't think men will is a profitable, like bet like long-term at, at these odds. In my opinion, you know, I would have thought, uh,

I would have, if I was putting out odds of who you would like this week, I would have expected to see more. Okay. Two guys. I would have expected to see more interest in day out of you because you were on day last week and now he's going to a course where he's been awesome at.

And I would have expected you to jump on Zalatoris at 50-1 as well. Yeah, I don't know. Day, to me, I think him and Rose are kind of in the category of they had a really good year last year. They had some wins. They both won an event.

I'm just not super hot on either of them, you know, getting another win this year, especially at these odds. I mean, Day, you know, makes all the sense in the world. He's been playing decent this year and, you know, he's amazing here. I just don't like it. And Zal, I don't think he's ready to win. And... I agree. I think he's going to play well this week, but I don't think... I think this is too soon for him to win. I also think...

That, you know, I was legitimately there when he got injured and it was because he was hitting like taking lashes out of the rough. And I think a more new wave Zalatoris post injury might do better overall.

on more wide open courses. And he's not the most accurate driver at all. Like, he's really not. So I just don't like the idea, fresh off a back injury, of him, like, hacking six and seven irons out of the rough this week. But, you know, later on, you know, some other events I think he can play well at. But I...

I think that because the same thing happened last year. I don't know if you remember, like he played really well at TOC, decent showing at Amex and missed the cut here. So I don't know if it's the Zalatoris of 2022 anymore, to be honest. I think it's a good situation to monitor. Like he looked better last week at the Amex and he's going to, you're going to have, if Zalatoris starts continuing to show signs of life,

There are a bunch of great Zalatoris courses coming up that you could also bet them out. I love them at Riviera. I love them at Bay Hill. Bay Hill is basically like the Bermuda version of Torrey Pines. So I agree with you. I'm going to just continue to take a little bit of a wait-and-see approach on Zalatoris.

Have you made any other bets? No, I haven't. I haven't been a single person. Okay. So can I sell you on Harry English? No, I'm down. He won the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines. We all know that. He also won at Winged Foot. Only guy in the field to finish top five at both. Also won at LACC. This is a three-time US Open champion. We love Harry English. We're talking about.

Um, no, it, it makes sense. You know, he's good here, you know, playing great. Like, like playing real. Yeah. You finished top 15 at both century and Sony and hit the ball. Well, both times. So he's starting to trend back in the right direction. He's a proven winner. Um,

I think it's the type of guy where it's like, oh, Harris English wins this event. Like no one's surprised. I don't think. And I think there's good value on him at 50. I think there's good value on him at 50. I would rather trust.

English more than like these guys I like for DFS purposes, but like Jaeger and Ryan Fox and Nikolai Hojgaard and Maron, like Harris English has been there, done that, had a lot of success on these, on these types of courses. So like, I think it gets better.

It gets bleak real quick. I don't think that's why there's more justification for just paying up for Homar Morikawa, even if you don't love the prices, because

Are you, do you, are you really want to bet a bunch of guys in the hundreds at Torrey Pines? Right. Even the Luke less year, Brian. Yeah. People forget about the Luke less year. I know people forget. I know he was like 75 to one. Luke less was number one in everybody's model. I remember doing content that week. Yeah. Everybody loved Luke less that week.

So, you know, we know what skill set works at Torrey Pines and I don't,

I mean, we can talk about some long shots, but I don't think many of these guys are going to be the last man standing on Sunday. Yeah, no. In all honesty, I like your Harris English, Sal. He's been playing well. He's played well here in the past. He's played well on similar golf courses. I like it. I can be convinced on Harry English. I think Sepp Schrock is going to be really popular this week. Yeah.

Huh. So have you seen like, what are, cause I've gone from a bunch of different shows this morning. So what are people doing on Twitter this morning? Like what are, I think people are betting Shraka, Minwoo, Keegan. We didn't even talk about Keegan. We didn't talk about Keegan. I think we both feel the same way about Keegan is we love Keegan. I bet him at the Sony. I thought he looked great at the Sony, but is Keegan going to contend two weeks in a row? No.

counterpoint he can said, and this stuck with me, Keegan was like, yeah, I basically just figured out if I want to make the Ryder cup team, I just have to make the decision impossible for them and just win a shit ton of tournaments on the PGA tour. So do I think that Keegan is going to potentially win like two random tournaments on the PGA tour this year? Yes.

So my thing about Keegan is that I actually, I feel bad for him because if he won Sony, he would have been on the president's cup team because the president's cup, they kind of throw some guys bones for the final two spots. Like they give a lot of, you know, veteran guys, like they put Kisner on it. They put a lot of guys that maybe should have been on the Ryder cup team. I think if Keegan Bradley wins once this season, he will be,

be on the president's cup team. I don't think he'll be on the Beth page team. I think there's actually a less than 10% chance. He makes Beth page. There's just no way. Um, with these guys coming out of college that like their fairway finder is like one 85 ball speed. But I do think he could be on the president's cup team, which would be good enough for him.

30-1. I mean, he's really good here, to be completely honest. And he's playing really well. And again, he's very motivated by the win. He definitely could have won last year. He putts well here. Great long iron player, pretty accurate off the tee.

I don't hate it. I really don't hate Keegan at 30 to 1 this week. Keegan Bradley can win. So we'll Vick clap the shit out of that one. Either way. Either way, he's a good player. Yeah, can win. I think Shane Lowry is a decent DFS play. Wet, soggy, windy, you wince your face. You've never been a Lowry guy.

You've never been. No, I mean, after he like killed me at RBC heritage, you'd rather bet Bo Hosler. Wouldn't you? No, I'm actually out on boss. Um, he, he actually finished the round on the par, but I think he's a permanent blacklist. He's not going to win. And I'm out on guys that have never won on the PGA tour after about on, like, I'm just done with that. Um,

So you're a loser for a reason. But here's here's my thing. What is what is the difference between Rose and Day? Like Rose is 40 points higher than Day. They both were former world number ones that won here that had a really good year last year. I don't think Day is playing 40 points better than Rose.

Agreed. Day has better PR with the Malbon stuff. I would much rather bet Rose at 55 than Day. I don't know if I'm going to get there, but will Vic lap if he plays well? Oh, for sure. And I think that the way that I'm going to structure it is if I bet Morikawa at 12, I'm

and Harry at 55, which I have, I bet I haven't pulled the trigger on the more call at 12, but I'm probably leaning in that direction. Harrison goes at 55. I got, which I was really happy with. I have room for one more guy in the 50 range and it's either going to be SAP Rose or Hideki, but we haven't mentioned, but, uh,

Yeah, any of those three guys I think are fine. And I would imagine if you're going to pot commit yourself to Morikawa, you probably have room for a similar structure where you can go call in 12 and then you could probably fit Keegan at 35 or you could go two guys in the 50 to 70 range. Yeah, honestly. So I just want full disclosure. You know, I'm all about sustainable ROI. You know, it's one of my biggest talking points and it's an issue I care deeply about.

Brian is the police with us. We've seen some really questionable behavior in the early starts to the season with some friends on Twitter. And we hate to see it. We hate to see it.

Those odds aren't – they're on like better golf odds and they might move on bookmaker. But two guys at 14 is 6X and I'm usually 7X. It's not out of the question. Like I just want to put – and I never do it. It's a true like this is my first time situation. But there is a world in which I bet two guys at like 14 or 12.

And I'm just putting it out there so you can't give me shit. I just want it to be known. It's not something I usually do, but I'm making an exception. I'll be eight X, you know, the next week or something to make up. I'll make it up to you guys. I'll make it up, but that's not out of the question, but you know, I gotta, you know, I gotta buckle down and I gotta figure out like what I want my farmer's insurance betting card to be like, because this is, you know, a big turning point in my life. And you know, we need a,

good card this week. I mean, this is very important to me. Any long shots that you want to quickly mention before we finish up with some football? I'm probably not betting any of these guys outright, but there are a couple guys I would mention for top twenties and daily fantasy. Is there any, there are any long shots that have your attention this week? Do you play DFS still?

When I have money, I do. We're a part of RunPure community. So we're getting leverage in the Discord and stuff like that. It's actually funny because most of the other RunPure guys...

are not hashtag team leverage. Like I am the big hashtag team leverage guy. So you actually fit right in with RPS and I'm le reticence. No, a hundred percent. If, you know, if I had some money in my DraftKings, I would a hundred percent be down to play. But DraftKings is really hard, as you know. And if I'm going to like lose 500 bucks a week on a golf tournament and not care, like throwing an extra, you know, a hundred dollars in there is just not, uh,

Um, the best, like, you know, you know, our mutual friend, Tommy, he bets all my outrights top tens. When's Tommy, when's Tommy going to hit me up to play? We're going to play El Cab.

friday of rib week or thursday like yeah i knew that was a i knew that was a foregone conclusion but like why has it taught how long has tommy been no loving in la i've been hyping up lcat tim i'm like it's awesome it's uh it's really awesome and i i you know i played by fair share of country club shout out reese jones you know like it's just like you know it's not

Just everything about it is very show. So shout out El Cap. But he's like, dude, why don't you just bet your outrights top 10 every week? Like,

yeah it's it's great when i hit like one or two and have a good week but to win a substantial amount on a top 10 like i'd have to win like three 400 bucks like to even matter and then if i just have a bad week which is so easy to do then you're down another 200 300 like yeah i just don't subscribe to that i'd rather just rip my guys outright and if they win they win maybe bet my long

shots. Yeah. But the, I agree with you for the most part, but the problem with that is what do you do when you have a guy that you like that you don't think can win, but you want to make money on being right about him? Yeah, no, I agree with that because I was thinking about this and like, there's nothing in golf that

Like JT Poston, perfect example. I thought JT Poston would have a good season. I thought he would have a bunch of good results. Like I can't bet his over receiving yards for the year. Like, so that's where golf betting is tough, where you can think a guy's going to have a good year and maybe win a few events, but there's no sustainable way to bet that unless you just bet on top 20. Well, fantasy golf, like we tried to do it last year and I just, I

Yeah.

Even the league that we ran last year with a bunch of our buddies, there wasn't a lot of enthusiasm to run it back. But that's kind of the only way that I could think about investing in a player longer term. I guess underdog, this underdog draft thing people are really into, but I haven't looked into that yet. Yeah, I haven't been vibing around with that.

But, yeah, I mean, it's just tough. Like, you know, we have a lot of takes about a lot of different golfers. And to think someone's going to have a good year or could win a major, like, you just kind of have to catch lightning in a bottle for a week. But, like, you know, I just want more VicLabs and green checks, like, when I think someone's going to have a good year. So that's kind of what I've been grappling with in my life and going back and forth about. Okay.

Okay, so before we do football, I'm going to just give three names straight up that I think are going to, that I mentioned on a podcast that I can reclap. Taylor Moore, San Diego, like sneaky red community in San Diego. Yeah.

No, because that's the thing. You only play Taylor Moore in red zones. You do not want the libs to get to Taylor Moore. And San Diego is sneaky red. I just want to throw that out there. No, because I was looking...

at the leaderboard last year and I was like, oh, Taylor Moore podcast. And I'm like, that's kind of interesting because California is very blue. Very blue. Yeah. But in reality, San Diego is actually like kind of conservative. Sneaky rat. Maybe he feels a little bit at home. He feels a little bit more at home. I like the Taylor Moore podcast. I like the Taylor Moore podcast.

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry.

I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at midmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. So the two guys that I've kind of talked about, I didn't do a lot of course breakdown on this pod, but one of the things I was talking about in the article is putting inside 15 feet slash experience on POA

Really important, right? I think you can get an edge by looking at putting particularly on polar greens distance off the tee, particularly if it's going to be wet and long iron play, right? And

The two guys in this entire field that ranked top 20, I threw this out in the Discord this morning and nobody could get it, but the two guys that ranked top 20 in all three of those, putting from five to 15 feet, long arm play, and driving distance, Taylor Moore and Nick Hardy. So I think if you're just looking at who are low-priced guys that fit the

fit the Torrey Pines mold, I think Taylor Moore and Nick Hardy. And I have been saying this for a couple of weeks now. I was high on him at the Sony. I was high on him at the Amex.

Michael Kim is bigger than his Twitter personality. And he won the John Deere classic in 2018. In 2018. You didn't know. And he also didn't think Cam Smith's putt at the old course was impressive at all. You're never going to get out for that take. No, it's fine. I honestly like Mike Kim, like just sometimes on Twitter, I'm just like, dude, what? But you did invent Mike Kim. I will give you that. I invented Mike Kim as the golfer. I was like, hey guys, I think Mike Kim might be decent at golf too. And he finished six at the Amex.

The only thing I'm a little concerned about, do the lights get too bright? The first couple of times that Xander played Torrey, it didn't work out for him too well. I'm just going to say this as somebody that has been attending Torrey for five years, there's not going to be like a Michael Kim crowd. Okay. You know, there's never been a Xander crowd. It's a well-attended tournament, but it's not like this guy's

in front of all the home fans of San Diego this week. He's on the interview schedule, which is a little odd to me that it's Michael Kim, Xander and Keegan. I believe I can check on who the other guy was. I think there's one more, but I like Michael Kim as a golfer. I'm going to, you know, he's 150 to one this week. I feel like you should, you should be on him.

Like, I, like, I think you, you were scared last week when you didn't, when you didn't have an outright ticket on him and he was perfect. Right. That's true. But I don't know if he's going to actually win this event. Are you in, I, did you say something about Bramlett? Like this? Yes. I like Bramlett too. I should have mentioned him too. He's 350 to one.

Yeah, he's wow. That's a good number. Yeah. Look, the Tuesday interview schedule. I'll give you Kim last Keegan Bradley, six time PGA tour winner, including major champion Max Homa world. Number seven, 2023 farmers insurance open and seven time PGA tour winner Xander Shoffley world. Number five, Olympic gold medalist, seven time PGA tour winner, La Jolla native and San Diego state university product.

And then 9.45 a.m., Michael Kim. 2018 winner of the John Deere class. No, it just says 2011 Torrey Pines High School graduate. Hell yeah. Hell yeah. One of these things is not like the other. No, well, he legitimately-

like tweets so he could get these interviews and stuff like that. Like that was his, you know, that was his, um, you know, this is his, like his super bowl. Yeah. This is a super bowl. Um, okay. Let's talk about the NFC AFC championship games. Uh, Josh Allen and the bills won one playoff game. Um, you said that was their ceiling this year. So you can just, can you admit that you would have dunked on me if they won their second game?

Totally. I have so many Josh Allen bookmarked tweets from you that are just going to stay bookmarked forever. No, it's fine. Honestly, I was just not as high on the bills this year as you were. We had a little thing going on all year and Josh Allen had some stinker games and I kind of like to laugh at him. However, we did play Oak Hill on the same day.

As Josh Allen in the rain, we passed each other by and I was like, Hey, Josh Allen. I went, I was like, can I take a pit? No, I didn't do that, but I wanted to do that. But yeah, but Brian knows country clubs. Like Brian, some people know ball. Brian knows country clubs. A hundred percent. Like I've never had any incidents at, at, um, you can take me anywhere. Like truly, like I kind of like, like, um,

Just a few places. If anyone has a connection to Bel Air, that's my number one bucket list course. I really would like to play Bel Air. Also, Cypress Point. I'm not going to beg, but I would play Cypress Point. Would play Cypress Point. You could take me to National if you want me to show up. I will be there. So yeah, hit Brian up. It's truly no big deal. But yeah, Bel Air is number one. But yeah, Bills, Blues, they're cursed. Because normally...

Like if the Bills won a Super Bowl in like the 70s or whatever or the 80s, then you could say, OK, they made a deal with the devil and that's why they lost all the Super Bowls and that's why they keep losing to the Chiefs. But the Bills don't even have a Super Bowl to kind of go back on and say that's why they haven't won. Like they were just cursed, but they have nothing to show for it.

I agree with you. I don't know how I'm going to assess this team next year. I kind of out like a Xander can't lay inflection point with them where I'm done with those guys at majors. And I don't know if I'm approaching that with the bills. I didn't think this chiefs team was good all year. And I know a switch kind of flips in the playoffs with them. And

Mahomes has already in these first two playoff games has looked a lot better than he looked at times during the regular season. Statistically, just wasn't a very good season for Mahomes. And suddenly now where she rice is like going number one, dude, Kelsey's kind of come alive again after really disappointing this season. Shout out your girl. Shout out. Yep. Yep. Shout out Taylor. NFL did whatever they could to get Taylor to the championship and the webs and Moderna.

What's on Hunter's laptop. So, okay. Let me ask you a quick question though, just before we put a bow on Alan. And then I want to ask you,

your pecs for the games, but I'm going to give you four quarterbacks and you're going to tell me if you're starting a franchise tomorrow, Alan or this guy. Yeah. If you're starting a franchise tomorrow, forget money. It's a team with a lot of good weapons. Let's say Alan or Herbert. Alan by a mile. That's not even a comparison in my opinion. Okay. Okay. Alan or Purdy? Alan. Okay. Alan or Lamar?

It's a coin flip to me. Like that is a true. I'd maybe go Lamar to be honest. Like Josh Allen, more like the type of guy you want to like bring home to mom and dad. I'm just kidding. That was a joke. But no, I mean, they both have the mobility. I think Lamar makes less mistakes. Josh Allen probably has a better arm. So it's, that's a toss up to me. I'll go Lamar though. Okay. Allen or Burrow.

I give him going. I'm going burrow. I I'm a huge, I'm a big Joe burrow fan. I give a slight edge to Alan to be completely honest. I don't know. Is it burrow? Like Josh Allen, if he could beat the chiefs, like burrows done what Alan's been trying to do for five years. Yeah. But like he's hurt right now. So I, it's hard for me to assess it. Okay. Fair enough. We'll see how he comes back from the industry. Alan or CJ Stroud.

Yeah, I mean, I think CJ Shroud is him, but no, I would take Josh Allen at this point. You're not even going to... I think you've got to take Allen now, but I feel like that's subject to change very quickly. Yeah, I will go on the record and say... Do it for one more year. I will go on the record and say CJ Shroud is good at football. Like, I want that kind of out in the ether. In the ether. Yeah, I agree with that. Shroud good at football. Okay, so do you have any early leads for...

the two games? So I think, you know, I think the sharp, well, I want to start with the Niners-Lions game just because I have more takes on that. I think the sharper...

you know, play would be to take the Niners because they're off a bad performance and the Lions played really well against, you know, a pretty bad Bucks team. However, my favorite bet, I like the over in this game, like, you know, you know, classic, but I really liked the over in Lions Niners. Lions overs have hit at a pretty high rate all year. The Rams Lions over should have had, and that was just a killer. Yeah. So that's basically a green check.

um the lines didn't even play the box i really don't know but i liked over in this game i don't know i mean what how do you assess this lines team i think that's like are they actually good i personally i think that the 49ers had their adversity game and i think they're gonna i think they're gonna roll i do i think that you look at

the playoff performances of previous Superbowl champions. And usually it doesn't happen every single year, but most years there's an adversity game where the Superbowl champions look a little bit shaky at one point. And I think the 49ers had their adversity game. Like I think the Packers punch them in the mouth offensively.

I had some big questions about Kyle Shanahan's. I was texting you guys this. Like I, I do not love the way that Kyle Shanahan coached that game. I had some questions about his decision-making. I think Debo is going to come back and they'll have their full arsenal of weapons. McCaffrey still looked amazing. I don't think the lions have the secondary to really make,

rock uncomfortable the way that a team like the Ravens did. So right now I lean towards

Niners minus seven, but it's a big number to lay in an NFC championship, really big number to lay in, in an NFC championship game. But I think the Niners are going to win the game. And I, you know, you're going to clap that. Yep. I'm going to have a clap that I think the Niners will win the game. Yep. And then chiefs Ravens, I have such an aversion to this chiefs team for some reason. And I know at a certain point, it's like my homes is an underdog. I get it. I get it. But it's,

We are so quick to forget how bad this team looked at times during the regular season. And I'm a little more analytically based in my approach and my priors on this chiefs team, uh,

This is not a good Chiefs team. And maybe I'm placing them in the context with other great Chiefs teams, but I do think they get clipped by the Ravens this week. It's the year of the hardball. So I'm going... If you're asking me to pick gun to my head, I would lay the points in both games. I would. Yeah. No, I...

Agree. I lean Ravens over Chiefs, to be honest. I really hate the three and a half. I wish it was three. Do you think... What's the square bet? Because I was...

Okay. But like I looked at, oh, every, the square bet is the chiefs last week. And like the, it was a lot of money on the bills too. So it's like, are people in on the chiefs? I think with these games, there's so much action. You can make the case for either side. Right. Like, it's not like, you know, Houston Jags, like week four.

where like your syndicate is, you know, just hammering one side. I think you should make the case either side. I would think, you know, like if I asked my dad what he would like in this game, he would actually probably say the Ravens because he hates the Chiefs. But,

Yeah, I think you can make the case for either side. I like the Ravens. I like the Niners. I really like the over in lines Niners. That will be, you know, actually Sunday night, you know, just lost all my money on farmers like me. I wonder if the most the most obvious bet is teasing the Niners down and the Chiefs up.

Yeah. That, how does that look? Can't that cannot lose. I cause the chiefs, even if you don't think they're going to win, the chiefs never, they rarely get blown out. I've been there. I like a good teaser. Anytime you, in my opinion, you want to just tease down a seven or six point favorite. Like it's always a close game and they usually lose. And then you're just like, why didn't I tease the dog up? I would personally, I think the lines are fucking good. I would tease the lions and the chiefs.

I'm rooting for the Lions. My cousin is a beat writer in Detroit. And not to get too sappy into the narrative game, but I'm really happy for that city, man. They hadn't won a playoff game since 1993. And that city is...

It's super, it's super electric right there, um, right now. And I do believe in the Campbell stuff a little bit. Um, I think that he is, I'm pretty much just opening the door for me to be able to Vick lap. If the lions, when I said, Hey, it was in play. Um, but I think it's going to be, it's going to be an awesome weekend. And then, um, and then what we have, we have pebble pebble.

Phoenix, which is Super Bowl weekend. And then the following weekend is Riviera? Yeah, that's correct. Jeez. And then the following weekend after that, I go to Vegas. Dude, Vegas? Yeah, I'm going to Vegas. And Riviera, you're coming here. Is that confirmed?

My ticket's been punched for a while. King, RK, me, you, Tommy, just Joey LaMagna. Joey LaMagna will be there. It's going to be a movie, but again, absolutely a thousand percent El Cab Friday or Thursday. Going to be feature film. I'm getting lessons

Getting iron lessons. Yeah. Cause it went to the last time you played golf. Are you able to play much? I played a decent amount. Um, and I've been ripping the Sims on Long Island, man. Like Friday night, Saturday night. They have an indoor simulator that you have a bunch on Long Island. It's awesome. I love it. I, we played a Sabonic me and Pete the other night.

Sick Horse would play there also, if anyone knows. No, it's actually dope. If anyone wants me to loan a million dollars to be a member at Sabonic, would be down. Yeah. No, that's creeping up in my rankings, Sabonic, after playing it on the simulators.

Sim golf is big, man. I got to keep my game consistent. We're making a big effort to improve my iron game. You know, we're simplifying my golf swing, no more wasted movements. And I'm,

Like we are coming out with a vengeance in 2024 with my golf game. Do you know that sim golf, this would be the last thing I'll say, cause I got to hop into another one, but do you know that sim golf is the second fastest growing sport in America? Do you know what number one is?

pickleball right yeah and pickleball and and you being out on pickleball is like one of the worst takes i've ever heard because you are a tennis player yeah and i was all division high school tennis and like that's have you ever tried it yeah i've played it a couple times it's like all right have you played it with the right people oh my god anytime i play pickleball i'm like i would rather play tennis

Like that. I disagree. Tennis is such like a workout. Because I want to feel like I'm doing something athletic, not like I'm playing ping pong or something. But play me in singles and pickleball and you'll run around. I agree that doubles pickleball is kind of like, man, you're not really getting a workout, but singles pickleball rules. So listen, I have rackets.

there's pickleball courts they're right next to the first team no well you still think you could beat me at tennis which you can't for sure like and we can we can play tennis at el cap too if you want like that is first like after 18 like i just shot a 102 like you were on the tennis court like you just beat me like two up on 18 i'm like get to the fucking tennis court right now like we're going but yeah pickleball i i'm just not in right now i just like tennis too much

Okay. We can work on that. All right. BK who's on TIB this week. A new guest in Mac. He's a, he's an all sports handicapper. We're going to talk some NFL. Like we just did go talk some golf. He's a, he's a local guy. So I'm excited. We're potting tonight, Monday night too. Anything else to plug? Nothing to plug. Is TIB sponsored by Betts? No, no. It's ad free. Free agent. Yeah. Looking for a sponsor.

No, I don't really like, like, I like that I do my pod and I don't have to promote anything. That's, that's a good take. That's fair. I agree. And like, I don't need them. Especially if you have a hashtag job. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And it just, it's not worth it. Like the plus and minus isn't, but I'm, yeah, I'm glad we could, um, could pod. I'm looking forward to rev week and I'm looking forward to, to cashing our college ticket. All right. BK. See you soon. My band.

All right. That is it for the podcast. We'll be back next week, breaking down Pebble Beach signature event. That's going to be a lot of fun. If you want to check out more of my content, runpuresports.com, promo code Andy to get you that discount. Enjoy the golf this weekend. Enjoy the football this weekend. If you are at Torrey Pines, come say hi. I'll be there all four days and we will see you back on this podcast feed next week. Cheers.

If I ventured in the slipstream Between the viaducts of your dream Where mobile steel rims crack And the ditch and the back road stop

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