Everything You Need to Know About Castle Pines & BMW Championship Picks
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This is where I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It is a very helpful resource if you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf.

It has been for me at least. I credit it as a crucial piece in any of the success that I have been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make, BetSports Golf is where you want to go. And as always, the discount that you want is inside golf. This tool is absolutely essential to have if you are serious about making money in golf betting and DFS.

Betzbert's Golf code INSIDEGOLF for a whopping 25% off discount. My Castle Pines model is up and ready to go up there on the site already. So Betzbertsgolf.com code INSIDEGOLF for a 25% off discount. Okay, we are back. Castle P, here's the deal. My new recording equipment

as you can probably already tell by my audio quality, did not get here in time for when I was leaving to play golf this weekend. I'm in Rochester, New York right now playing some golf, as one does in August. I'm away a lot of these weekends playing golf. And despite this being a very busy weekend, I'm

hosting some buddies and I've been out there for most of the days. Haven't gotten an opportunity to watch much of the pro golf this week. I was going to still bring the new recording equipment because we got to talk Castle P. It's a new golf course. This is my bread and butter and where I hope I can provide

most value in terms of this podcast is when we have a new golf course that not a lot of folks have information on. Now, with that being said, new microphone and sound mixer did not arrive in time before I had to hit the road. Shout out Amazon. So genuine apologies once again for the audio quality. I figured...

Podcast on Castle P providing some hopefully valuable info with bad audio is still better than no podcast at all. And I have some thoughts on Castle P. I dove into

Very deep into Castle P, some late nights. I've been playing golf all during the day, so I get back to my room, and I've been grinding this golf course. I have watched so much and read so much about this golf course, and I'm pretty psyched for it. I think this is going to be an awesome tournament to watch. This is a beautiful golf course.

with beautiful land, beautiful terrain, and architecturally, yeah, whatever, it's Jack Nicklaus, but...

The difference between this and other bad Jack Nicklaus golf courses is the land and the setting and how beautiful this place is going to look on television and how much of a challenge it is going to provide for players who will have to navigate altitude and massive elevation changes, which is not a variable that players often need to account for on regular PGA Tour courses. So

I'm really excited to watch golf next weekend. Not going to be able to really do it playing in another tournament, but you know, it ends that tournament ends on Saturday. So I'm, I'm excited to at least watch on Sunday. I have not gotten to really watch any of the golf this week at TPC South when probably for the better, I'm, I'm probably good on that golf course. One thing that,

I do want to say about TPC Southwind and this FedEx tournament because, you know, I want to set more of a precedent for laughing at yourself when your picks are bad. I think it's, you know, we've turned it into a bit how much of a Vic lap contest it feels all the time on Twitter. I think we need to do more laughing at oneself when your picks suck. And

Boy, oh boy, did my pick suck this week. Worst week of the season for me, hands down, just like an absolutely unmitigated disaster. And you know what? That's okay with me. And I can say that with my chest because, you know, I've had a really good season, over 60 units, my best golf year to date. So I don't need to prove

prove anything because my work has spoken for itself all year. So I actually think, you know, it should be completely okay because it's going to happen to laugh at yourself and recap it when you have a week this bad. Because again, no matter what, I have...

honed over for four years now, honed the craft of breaking down golf tournaments and breaking down golf courses and betting and playing DFS in those golf tournaments. And it has been as successful for me as I could have ever hoped for beyond my wildest dreams. And yet I

a couple times a season, you're just going to draw a blank. And, you know, I think the reason I'm so, I guess, detached from the result and not really that upset, yes, I have been playing with house money and could take significant L's for the next 10 to 15 tournaments and still be significantly up there, but

I don't even know if I'm mad at the process here. See what I did there in true golf Twitter fashion? You still vic-lap the process here. And my whole thing this week was, you know, this golf tournament, historically elite approach players in great approach form.

Zell Torres, JT Glover, Berger, Brooks answer. Okay. Let's, let's hone in on the best approach players coming off their best approach week who have played well at this golf course before. Okay. That sounds to me like Colin Morikawa best two approach weeks of the season. What does he decide to do in Memphis? Of course he decides actually to have his worst approach week of the season. Okay. Um,

Sounds good. Hand up. That was not in my range of outcomes. How about Tom Kim? Accurate driver of the ball. Great course history coming off his best approach week of the season. Well, nearly dead last in putting. Can't find a fairway. The irons are fine. Whatever. You know, not my fault. Process was good there. Okay. Russell Henley, best approach week of his season, playing his best golf of his career. Back-to-back top tens in his last two majors. Great course history. Great Bermuda putting.

nearly dead last in td green this week okay dude awesome uh cool cool cool very cool patrick cantlay 30 to 1 goodbye low spot great course history best approach week of the season at the open championship top five at pinehurst on bermuda playoff pat by low this is when he plays his best golf of the year did not work out either i mean i guess he charged up the leaderboard today i guess he you know could still acquit himself with a backdoor top 10 but he's what 10 back of hideki uh

Yeah, that's not it. That's not it. That's not going to be it. How about DFS? Let's talk all week about how despite the course history, this is actually a perfect Scotty golf course and then...

Instead of playing Scotty, you know what, Andy? Let's play a 15% Rory at half the ownership because hashtag leverage. This is a great Rory golf course. Let's buy low on Rory. He's been unbelievable here coming off another incredible approach week at the Olympics, and he always dominates off the tee here.

Rory T66, okay, cool, nearly dead last in off the tee. That is, whew, okay. Hey, I got the leverage. Some of my other DFS plays, my favorite DFS plays, my core DFS plays outside of the aforementioned guys. Ben Griffin, best approach week of the season last year, best Bermuda putter in the field over the last three years. 50th in approach this week, T31.

C. Woo Kim flop lag. That was a core play for me. I loved C. Woo Kim in that spot. Great golf course for him. Incredibly accurate driver of the ball. Great middle iron player. Nearly dead last in TD Green this week, T58. So, you know, you got to laugh at it. I don't know what I would have done differently. Could I have played Hideki? Sure. He checked a lot of boxes for me too, but...

Do I know why I chose my guys over Hideki? I do. I do know why I chose my guys over Hideki. And I suppose you just got to take it in stride. I don't think I'd be this positive if I was getting my ass kicked all season. I've performed way above my expectation level. So maybe that gives me the perspective to be able to make light of it. But I don't

I think it would be hard to make worse picks than I did this week in Memphis. I think it would be challenging. You know, I will vic lap probably the only thing that I got right this week was the Hovland buy low. I did nail that 6% Hovland T4. I will vic lap the shit out of that. I played Burns.

Burns I played, but those are the only two guys that I have in the top 15 of this golf tournament entering Sunday of my 20-man DFS pool. Who knows? Maybe some guys move up a little bit tomorrow. And, um, again, I will not be watching, but what a hilariously disastrous, um,

performance for me. I don't know what else to say. I don't know what else to say. But you know what? I've never had two awful weeks in a row. So I'm feeling extra dangerous for Castle Pines here. All right, let's do Castle. So the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings

will continue their season this week in Colorado. And so the field isn't completely set at the moment, but I think we have a pretty strong sense of what the field will be. According to Data Golf, I mean, close to 43-ish of these 50 spots are at about a 99% plus probability or already qualified for BMW. So, you know, I will rerun my model when...

On Sunday night or Monday morning when we finish up play in Memphis, there are certainly a couple things that could happen in Memphis that I am going to be watching fairly closely in terms of I'll be driving when Memphis is happening, which this is the second time

in four weeks where I've had to do a five-hour drive right in the middle of the golf tournament ending on a Sunday. And when Johnny Vegas was in contention about to win the 3M Open for us, I

I pulled over into a random gas station, hooked up a hotspot, and watched the final hour and a half of the 3M Open. At least I know that I don't have to do that tomorrow. But the point is, I'll do another pod.

With a much greater sense of the players that I will be betting once I run through all of the final numbers from Memphis, because it's a wildly different golf course, both in skill set and agronomy, but I do think...

what players did this week in Memphis is still relevant. There are some alarming stat lines that I just really want to comb through and figure out what went wrong. Castle Pines is a phenomenal golf course for Rory McIlroy. I saw about...

Three shots that Rory McIlroy has hit this week. And I kind of, both with Colin being dead last in approach today and Rory being dead last, I kind of texted some of my group chats and was like, is Rory doing a bit here? Like, what is...

Listen, I get it. I play bad golf all the time where you just show up sometimes and you don't have it. And then a very quick, simple fix on the range and you're fine again. You know, basically kind of the inverse of what happened to my players this week in Memphis where they're hitting their irons like the best players in the field. They're hitting their irons the best they have all season. And

Guess what? It can flip on a dime. You know, maybe that's the biggest takeaway I have when I go back and look at my process from this week. Like what went wrong is that golf is fleeting, right? Approach plays fleeting. Recent form is fleeting, although I don't, it's just, it's an anomaly. Golf is weird because, you know, you could basically say for every argument that you have of a

of a guy that hit the ball amazing last week and then randomly sucked the next week. There's like 10 other...

of a guy carrying over great ball striking form, right? That's like how most people make money betting and playing golf DFS is like capitalizing on the players that are hitting the ball great. Like that's the entire reason why most, so many, you know, so many people are able to win at this is figuring out that plus the nuances of everything else. But as it pertains to Rory, you know, I, I,

I wonder how much of what is happening with him right now in Memphis is mental and decision-making and him being checked out and not caring versus mechanical and something wrong with his swing. And I'll have to go back and comb through the tape and I guess make that judgment call for myself because I can tell you right now, I don't know what the strokes gained are going to be, but he's lost everything.

He's given away a couple of strokes, ball striking based on decision making alone and basically just kind of like being in fuck it mode. Uh, and I tweeted about this, that, that one decision that he made on the 16th hole on Friday, um,

I'm not being hyperbolic. I actually think it was the stupidest decision I've ever seen on a golf course in real time by a professional golfer. Again, I'm not being hyperbolic when I say that. A lot of these times when these pros try and pull off these insane shots and they look impossible to

You have to give them, even if they don't work, you have to give them a little bit more of the benefit of the doubt because their dispersion patterns are so much lower. And often they pull them off. And then when you pull off the shot, we're talking about how heroic and creative and great this guy was. And you only kill them when they're bad because

This is not selective. This is not selective criticism here. I would have told you the, and part of my problem with the golf shot too was the lack of upside. Like he was not hitting, even if he nailed the shot perfectly, he was not hitting the green from there. And he actually put himself in position if he executed the 99th percentile of that golf shot to 99th.

not even be in the best spot around the green with what was up by the green. This was like low upside, massively high risk. And, you know, I tweeted about Harry. I think the Harry thing is maybe the pendulum has swung too far on the Harry stuff where Harry is starting to take some of the blame for really Rory's

some, you know, playing really badly, having some issues in his swing mechanics and his mental game.

not, you know, not, not, you know, calling Harry off maybe when, when Harry wants to have input. Like I understand all of these things and I, I don't think that you can solely place the blame on Harry for all of Rory's struggles and, and as the, the lone determining major factor of why Rory

one of the most talented golfers i've ever seen hasn't won a major in a decade during the athletic prime of his career i get all that i'm just telling you this is why he gets the criticism okay whether you think the criticism is unfair

or not, this is why he gets the criticism, right? Because Scotty Scheffler, that is never happening with Scotty Scheffler, okay? Tell me one time, all of you people listening to this podcast probably watch a lot of golf, okay?

And I'm happy to hear the answers for this if you have them. But can you guys name me one time where you've been watching golf, whether it's a Thursday, a Friday, a Sunday, in contention, whatever, where you've sat watching the screen and you've been like,

God, that was the dumbest thing I've ever seen Scottie do. Like that was the, I can't believe Scottie decided to try that shot. What was he thinking? What a course management error. What a mental error. Or when was the last time you've watched Xander play golf and be like, God, what was Xander think? Like maybe Xander hits a bad shot. He has an execution error. He hits a bad drive. He pulls his drive. But in terms of like pure decision-making, like,

When was the last time you've watched Xander and be like, God, that was a mental error. Like, gosh, Xander made a real mental error there. Or Scotty made a real mental error there. It just doesn't happen. And for whatever reason, whether it's 50% caddying, 80% caddying, 5% caddying,

Those mental errors just don't happen with Scottie and Xander. And that's the difference between why those guys are at their strokes game baseline with three of the four major championships this year and eight other trophies. And Rory is major list for the last decade. And

you know, telling people you can't criticize Harry. We fucking won Dubai, which has turned into like our favorite bit and one of the greatest quotes ever given by a professional golfer, if you can find the humor in it, over the last year. Fair or unfair, like,

That's just that's how it is, man. And again, we will never know the ins and outs of what the relationship between Harry and Rory looks like. And, you know, these guys aren't mic'd up and and isn't in the range of outcomes that Harry is walking up to Rory on the 16th hole of TPC Southwind and being like, yo, dude, this is fucking stupid. Like, do not do this.

Obviously, it's your body, your choice, pal. I can't hit the shot for you, but I am telling you with every bone in my body, this is dumb. Don't do this. And Rory being like, yeah, fuck off, dude. Fuck off. I'm hitting it.

Is it in the range of outcomes that that is what's going on and it's not Harry's fault? Sure. It's in the range of outcomes. It's also in the range of outcomes that Harry says literally nothing when Rory decides to hit these golf shots and Rory

Whether he says something and Rory calls him off or he says nothing, the point is the result. The point is that it's not working. And so even if it's really Rory that is telling Harry to fuck off, then the fact that Rory is in a position with his caddy where he feels like he can tell his caddy to fuck off and his caddy doesn't have a strong enough voice to actually get his player to listen to him,

then that's the problem, right? That just exemplifies what the problem actually is. So whether it's Harry saying nothing or Harry saying everything, it actually doesn't matter. What matters is what Rory's doing. And Rory's not doing good in terms of his course management decisions. And it's not all black and white. There's a lot of gray area there. And there have been times when I've come on this podcast before

and commended Rory for his course management decisions. There have been times in recent major championships where I have felt Rory's game plan is strong. I don't think because he makes the dumbest decision I've ever made on a golf course on the 16th hole on Friday at the FedEx St. Jude's Championships when he's 10 strokes off the lead and

That means that Rory needs to entirely reinvent the wheel in terms of the entire way that he plays golf and that he is just overall objectively black and white, a bad decision maker always on the golf course. No, of course not. There's a lot of nuance there involved. But I think when you see these things with Rory,

You have to be critical. There's no way to not be critical because anybody with a brain that watches a lot of golf can see that he is giving up strokes on a weekly basis, something he can't really afford to do to Xander and Scotty right now on talent alone. There are a lot of guys that

Rory can give up strokes to on course management and decision making on just because he can beat them.

with talent um Rory can't beat Scotty and and Xander and to be honest with you a lot of PGA Tour pros on on talent alone anymore he he has to make good decisions and he doesn't always make good decisions so um that was my little Rory aside uh the the main point was it uh was it to that

the main point that I was attempting to make was that there's some numbers that I really need to comb through and in Memphis to figure out what happened with some of these guys. There's some really alarming stat lines because, uh, because I think what happened in Memphis this week is relevant. Uh, and I'm,

It's going to play a, the recent numbers are going to play a factor into my model. But point being, it's the BMW Championship. At the end of the week, the top 30 in the standings will advance to the season finale. At Eastlake, the event has been hosted at a number of different golf courses, most often in the Midwest Chicago area.

Cog Hill, Medina, Conway Farms, Olympia Fields. This used to really be the Western Open, and then they've made this kind of the Midwestern Northeast. I don't know. I've done enough already on criticizing the PGA Tour schedule. We're not going to do that on this podcast, but the point is we no longer get the Barclays that represents the Northeast, and the BMW Championship now has kind of

morphed into this Midwest Northeast tournament that also travels to Maryland and Delaware and Castle Pines is just outside Denver and it's going to make its hosting debut this week and uh

You know, it plays 6,000 feet above sea level. It's a Jack Nicklaus design. It measures 8,130 yards on the scorecard. It's going to be the longest golf course in PGA Tour history. It's certainly not going to play like that. So let's debunk a lot of this yardage stuff and how I actually think the golf course is going to play once you get past that.

the gaudy scorecard and dive right into the course here.

As I mentioned, it was designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1981. The fairways are bent grass, polanna with a ryegrass mix. The rough is Kentucky bluegrass, perennial ryegrass. The greens are polanna, bent grass measuring 5,600 square feet on average and running 13 on the stem. These greens are super, super fast. I've watched a lot of videos on Castle Pines and I think these greens are going to play super fast. Not to mention the fact that

that the superintendent at Castle Pines came from Muirfield Village. That's a worthy comp to look at this week. There are some big differences between this and Muirfield Village, but not only are both Jack Nicklaus designed golf courses, but the superintendent also came from Muirfield Village. So I would expect this golf course to

from a conditioning standpoint, to be really top of the line in terms of its conditioning, its difficulty, not necessarily its difficulty. We'll talk about what I think the winning score will be and its difficulty. But in terms of the speed of the greens and the conditioning, this is going to be super, super, super first rate. So

Let's talk about the actual golf course and how this golf course is actually going to play. Because I think a lot of people are looking at this golf course and saying 8,000 yards, bomber off the tee, long irons. And I agree with some of that, but I'm not totally sure I agree with all of it. So Castle Pines was founded in 1979 by oil and gas magnate Jack Vickers and commissioned to be

The Rocky Mountain version of Augusta National. The course plays at 6,000 feet above sea level. It features 400 feet of elevation change. It was once an annual stop on the PGA Tour as the host of the International. We have not seen the golf course host a men's professional golf event since 2006.

There's very little that we can gleam from prior international events as no player in the field has ever played in that tournament. We'll be competing this week, and that also featured Stableford scoring. Even more so, the entire course has been renovated since 2006. There were

500 yards added to the scorecard, new bunkers, rebuilt tees and greens, and renovated water hazards. So, you know, the best reference point, honestly, and it kind of pains me to say this because I'm not really a huge fan of their work generally, but there's a two and a half hour video of

the good, good guys playing this golf course with Wyndham Clark that came out just a week ago. And again, as much as that type of content generally is not for me and YouTube golf really in general is not really my bag, I devoured that video and I found it really, really informative.

in terms of figuring out how Castle Pines will play and watching what clubs Wyndham Clark hit off the tee and approaching the greens. And before we dive into the nitty-gritty of the golf course, I think my largest takeaway was the effect that altitude had on the way that the golf course played. So I've played some golf in altitude, not much to be honest with you. I play...

99% of my golf in New York and California. The last time I played golf in altitude was

two or three years ago but it is it is so clear from this video that it is an entirely different style of golf that players are going to have to adjust to on the fly and i think those who are more familiar playing thousands of feet above sea level may possess a significant advantage so

Just a quick altitude primer that I just want to run through before people talk about, you know, how long this golf course is just to get the math down. So just in general, the golf ball flies further in high altitude because essentially the changes in air density, right? And that decreases as elevation increases, right? So that's,

basically the thinner air that you have, there's going to be less drag force on the golf ball. Um, and the golf move, the golf ball is going to move more easily through the air and it's not going to slow down as quickly as it flies, which is going to result in greater distance. Right. And we're able to calculate the distance gain by multiplying elevation by

0.0016. So for example, if we're playing at 6,000 feet, the increase is about six to 8%, right? So if a player normally drives the ball 300 yards at sea level, they're going to drive it 320 to 325 yards at Castle Pines. That's a massive difference. Okay. So the yardage is incredibly misleading and the golf course really plays, I would say closer to like 7,300 yards.

Um, maybe 74, but I would even say less than that because it also features a few holes that play dramatically downhill. Um, and the golf ball also, the other key point that I would make about this, the golf ball does not spin any less at high elevation, but because of the, the, the air is less dense. The lift force is going to be lower. Um,

Not to do a full science corner here, but I wanted to read a lot about this to make sure that I had this stuff down because what I was watching in that video, I was shocked by how much of an impact the setting of this golf course had on the yardages and the clubs that players were hitting and the shot shape as well. And so I dove into this a little bit and I

are going to have a flatter trajectory on longer shots too, right? So there's going to be a much more shallow angle of descent and more rollout also. Like this, it's not that long of a golf course. So not only is the ball going to roll farther, um,

it's going to have a flatter trajectory, right? So the ball is not going to slice as hook as much. It will be harder to shape shots, right? So this is maybe the anti-creativity golf course. Not really, because I think that you need to be like really smart about figuring out your yardages and your ball flight and stuff like that. But

Players that like to see their ball curve are going to have a more challenging time working the ball in both directions. So, for example, a very high spin player that hits a massive hook or a massive slice, Wyndham Clark, for example.

is going to see their golf ball travel straighter at altitude. Now, you know, there's some real trouble off the fairway at Castle Pines, but it's going to be a lot easier to drive the ball straight on this golf course due to the flatter trajectory.

And the course will play even shorter than the expected yardage due to greater rollout. So, you know, welcome to the land of 400-yard drives. In the Good Good video, Wyndham Clark had driver 9-iron into a 545-yard par 4. So he hit his 155-yard club after a 390-yard drive.

Finally, the shorter the shot and the slower a ball moves through the air, the altitude is going to have less of an effect on golf ball aerodynamics. So essentially, the high speed, high spin shots, your driver, your long irons, your fairway woods,

These are going to have weight. You're going to hit your wedges the way you always hit your wedges. You're going to hit your shots around the green the way you always hit your shots around the greens. It's really the driving and the long iron plays where it's really going to make a massive, massive difference. Even shots from 100 to 150 yards, you're going to be having to take –

six to 8% off of those. So when we actually break down in 8,100 yard golf course at altitude, you know, the, the, the actual yardage is incredibly misleading. And that was my greatest takeaway from, from the good, good video. Um, but that, that just because the golf course isn't going to play as long as, as maybe people think that doesn't mean that

It's not difficult because, you know, both Wyndham Clark, who, you know, has clearly some experience at Castle Pines. He's a Denver guy. I think he'll be a very popular bet this week. He's definitely played at altitude a lot more than probably some of the other guys in this field. With that being said, he made it very clear in that video that he does not practice at altitude anymore at all. I think he is a...

I want to say that he's either an Arizona – I don't think he's a Jupiter guy, and I don't think that he's a Vegas guy. So he might be an Arizona guy. So he plays Arizona courses, which are maybe 1,000 feet above sea level.

But, you know, both him and the good, good crew struggled immensely calculating distances. And I would not be surprised if the scoring is just naturally higher this week due to players making the occasional distance calculation error. I think there's going to be a lot of good, you know, good golf shot, bad result for some of these guys that just you're going to see a lot of hands on the hips like, you

god i thought i hit that perfectly it's 30 yards long or god i thought i hit that perfectly it's 15 yards short but in terms of the actual golf course not a single par four measures under 435 yards but there were multiple par fours where wyndham and all the good good guys had an approach shot inside 100 yards and so i'm not just talking about wyndham here who you know is one of the longer drivers on the pga tour like

All of these good, good guys, and I know the good, good guys are really good golfers. Those guys are really good. They're not PGA Tour level, but they certainly hit it as far as some PGA Tour players, and those guys had a ton of shots inside 100 yards. I mapped out the golf course really extensively, like Google Earth, all the videos, and I factored in all the altitude. I factored in all the elevation changes, and

I watched all the clubs that Wyndham hit and also the good guys hit. I counted up to seven wet shots on this golf course and

you know, players are still going to have long iron approaches on like 45% of their holes. That pales in comparison to other Jack Nicklaus courses that are pure long iron tests like Valhalla and Muirfield Village. Like Valhalla had 59% of approach shots from 175 yards plus. You're not going to get that this week. And I guess the best way that I would describe Castle Pines is that

this is Valhalla on a much more interesting and better piece of land. Think of Valhalla style architecture and a Valhalla style breakdown with Augusta terrain. And listen, Valhalla kind of on the record, not my favorite golf course in the world. Augusta,

Maybe my favorite golf course to watch every single year on the PGA tour. If we get some of Valhalla and some of Augusta in Castle Pines, that's a net positive, right? And I've kind of always, a lot of my criticism at Valhalla was not as that Valhalla is a Valhalla is a fine FedEx cup playoff event or PGA tour event. It's just not major worthy. And again,

Castle Pines, I wouldn't even be mad if they had a major here. This is a much...

better golf course than Valhalla, largely because the land is so good. The land is so extreme and fun and you have dramatic elevation changes. Um, and even if the architecture is Jack Nicklaus, which is, there's not a lot of strategic value. The greens are pretty flat. There's not a lot of intrigue to the greens. There's not a lot of subtle internal contouring. Um,

I think the golf course is going to play beautifully on television. And I think it's going to be an awesome tournament venue. And, you know, in terms of the difficulty, which is, I think, what everyone cares about and wants to know, there's a fair amount of room off the tee, not dissimilar to Valhalla or Muirfield Village. But there's a pretty high Miss Fairway penalty. Like the rough is on the thicker side. It's not quite Muirfield Village thick, but

but it's Valhalla thick and there are a fair amount of trees bordering the fairway. Um, I'm definitely taken distance over accuracy here. Like this is the first time in the last month where I would say distance matters more than accuracy, but this is not bombs away. Vidanta, Viarta, TPC, Craig ranch, no miss fairway penalty bomb away with reckless abandon. Um,

There's going to be a higher Miss fairway penalty on this golf course. Um, and Wyndham laid up off the tee on, on a number of par fours, like on, on the, of the 10 par fours, Wyndham hit driver on seven, seven of them. And even mentioned that there was an argument to hit driver on, on five of them, right? Like he played a little bit more aggressively than I think maybe some PGA tour pros were going, are going to play in, in a tournament. Um,

It's still, you know, you hit driver on the four par fives, but of the 10 par fours, not all of these are pure driver holes. And there's some thicker rough and trees bordering the fairways, some pretty provocative fairway bunkering. There's a lot of fairway bunkers on this golf course. And on paper, to get back to the difficulty thing, this is a harder golf course than Valhalla.

And it does require some real thought and creativity, and the greens are lightening quick. With that being said, there's an extra par five. And Castle Pines is not going to play remotely as long as Valhalla, right? Valhalla featured a long iron approach on 59% of the holes. Castle Pines will be closer to 45%. But I think that's the

I think that's the reference point, right? Is this is Valhalla with Augusta terrain. And you look at Valhalla in difficulty, 25th out of 33 courses, off the tee difficulty, 28th in approach difficulty, 12th in around the green difficulty, and 24th in putting difficulty. And so at the end of the day, Valhalla required a fairly balanced skill set of

total driving with an emphasis on distance over accuracy and long iron play. And my model is

similar this week, right? My biggest difference between Valhalla and Castle Pines would be shifting some of the emphasis away from pure long irons to wedges too, as well as an added emphasis on par five scoring. And these greens are super fast, right? It's like some fast green putting on there. So

Valhalla, I think Xander ended up getting to 20 under. You take away, you add an extra par five at Castle Pines, but a couple miscalculation errors on the distances and some really dramatic elevation changes and a lot faster greens because

The greens aren't, you know, Valhalla was super wet. So this golf course is going to play. You're getting a little bit of rain, but it's going to play firmer Valhalla. I think somebody could get to 20 under here. It wouldn't be my prediction. I think my prediction, and I'll talk to some of the guys on the grounds this week. So I'll be updating that.

what I think about in the discord all week and think things could change. I'm recording this on Saturday evening, you know, stay tuned in the discord for updates because, you know, a lot of the times I talk to the folks that are there and I, I get some, I hear some different things about the rough. I hear some different things about the firmness. I hear some different things about the strategy. You know, I hear some different things about how players are playing in practice rounds and my opinion can change, but I think you even out like the,

the extra par five here with being a little bit of a harder golf course than Valhalla in terms of the firmness of, of the greens and the elevation changes and probably like 17 under gets it done this week. Um, right. It's a harder golf course than Valhalla with an extra par five and more dramatic terrain, right? That that's, that's what we're working with this week. So, um,

Let's do a, let's do, I got a, I got a long road ahead of me tomorrow in terms of the drive that I have and the breaking down of Memphis that I will have to do on Sunday night. So let's do a quick run through of the top 25 or the top 20 of, of my model.

And then I'll give a quick early lean. And I'll give a lot. We'll talk a lot more about the golf course and the players on the Monday pod. We'll do a full Monday pod. I'll talk about if any of my opinions on the golf course have changed at all. But let's take a very quick break and then run through the top 20 of my model and some early lean.

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So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile, unlimited premium wireless. How did they get 30, 30, how did they get 30, how did they get 20, 20, 20, how did they get 20, 20, how did they get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month? Sold! Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes in detail. Okay, number one, not Scotty Scheffler.

Xander Shoffley. Scotty Scheffler is number two, of course. But I actually think for the first time in a month, right, I actually think that this is a better golf course for Xander Shoffley than it is for Scotty Scheffler. Not by like a significant margin, but...

But, you know, you want to play Scottie on these golf courses where accuracy is more important than distance with a super high missed fairway penalty. This golf course will still have a

high-ish miss fairway penalty, but I would still take distance over accuracy here, certainly. Xander has much higher ball speed than Scottie Scheffler. Xander hits the ball longer than Scottie Scheffler. And Xander won at Valhalla, right? And Xander...

is a much better putter than Scottie Scheffler as well. And I think if we look at the Valhalla roadmap, a lot of that golf course was because you had kind of a standard greens and regulation percentage, a great way to win at Valhalla, just ask, you know, Xander or Bryson kind of came close doing a similar thing.

you know, power off the tee and putting. And in both putting, because it's a golf course where I really think you can get hot on the greens and really compete here with your putters. I do think there'll be a couple of players that aren't necessarily, you know, super, super,

great drivers of the ball and great ball strikers that you'll be able to get away with going nuclear on the greens here and making a ton of putts like we did see at Valhalla. Xander is better at those two things than Scottie by my numbers, by a fairly significant margin in terms of the putting. And he's not like that much longer than Scottie, but he has higher ball speeds overall.

And I think some of the worry that I have about Xander on golf courses with a higher Miss Fairway penalty and him overhooking the ball, you know, the big over smother hook may be mitigated at this golf course with lower air density. So.

I haven't dove too much into what Scottie and Xander are up to this week. It looks like both are doing their thing. Both are playing great and probably at their 50th percentile outcome where they're a mainstay in the top 10, but you're not getting the peak performance required to win the golf tournament. I don't personally really think that either will be

next week. But if you're asking me which I would rather bet, I would definitely go with Xander.

you know, and Xander probably, I would say Xander Scott, you know, 50 man field, the odds are going to be terrible. Xander, uh, Scotty, maybe three to one plus three 50 and Xander, maybe six to one plus six 50. I, I, I'm not single bulleting Xander here. Um, but I, I do lean to him over Scotty on this particular golf course. I think Scotty, um,

famous last words, right? Because any Scottie criticism is a bit nitpicky. But if you're attempting to make a counter Scottie Scheffler argument, I think I would start with the fact that I think he likes a lack of variables. I think Scottie likes very predictable outcomes, and he doesn't like adding new variables into the mix.

I don't think he loved it in Scotland when things got really weird at the Open Championship and the wind kept changing direction. He told us that he didn't love it at Pinehurst where you never knew what type of lie that you were going to get if you missed a fairway. And, you know, if you're building a case of why not to bet Scotty Scheffler this week or why Scotty Scheffler won't win because that's the zone that we are in right now,

With Scottie, where you kind of have to almost ask yourself, is there any conceivable outcome where he doesn't win this tournament? Let's see how he reacts to altitude. That's a variable that we haven't seen him really come across professionally. You get a little bit of altitude in Phoenix, but absolutely nothing like this. So I'll go on the record, I guess, and say...

I don't think Scottie is winning this golf tournament. Again, I know not hot take the not Scottie market to win would be like minus 400 probably. I like Xander a little bit better than I like Scottie here on Golf Course Fit. Number three, Rory McIlroy. Man, your guess is as good as mine. On paper, as a phenomenal golf course for Rory.

has a lot of staples of the Rory golf course that I like, kind of that Jack Nicklaus, Tom Fazio-esque architecture. But he's looked pretty broken this week in Memphis. So I'm not sure what to do there. Number four, Tony Finau.

who I think will be kind of a buzzy pick this week. Why? Because Tony Finau is from Utah, right? So he plays some more golf at altitude than a lot of folks, a lot of PGA Tour players. And your mileage may vary on how an unquantifiable narrative such as that is going to matter.

But it's something, and I think just based on course fit alone, it's a really great Tony Finau golf course, right? He played well at Valhalla. He played well at Muirfield Village in Augusta. Some of these other kind of wild terrain, massive elevation changes, Jack Nicklaus architecture, power off the tee, back on back grass greens.

Tony's a strong early lean here for me as the number four player in my model this week. I'm very curious to see how his numbers look at the end of the week. I think he's T9 right now, playing well, not hitting his irons all that well. But I get it with Tony Finau. Put it this way. I don't know if I'm going to bet Tony Finau, but if Tony Finau is most tipped,

I don't have an issue with it. I understand the love for Tony Finau on this golf course. And by the way, my model is not baking in the fact that Tony Finau is from Utah. This is just pure numbers and course fit. And I have Tony Finau as the fourth guy behind Rory, Scotty, and Xander. Number five is Ludwig O'Beir.

Kind of a disappointing performance for him. I wasn't on Ludwig this week in Memphis, but kind of just a disappointing performance for Ludwig.

Maybe a decent bounce back spot for him. I kind of like Ludwig on golf courses that nobody has seen before, right? Because I think that it neutralizes a little bit of the course history advantage that some of these guys have on him at a lot of the regular PGA Tour stops. Number six, Patrick Cantlay. Poof. I...

I don't know. I guess he kind of turned out to be, you know, maybe the guy on my betting card that I got least wrong this week in terms of he's like T20 now and has the opportunity to backdoor a top 10. And he really just shot one terrible round on Thursday and has played some really good golf over the last two days. Let's see what he does on Sunday. It would take a, it's a good golf course for can't light, but I'm not sure if he's,

quite there yet to win a golf tournament. He's played great at the BMW in the past. Is Cantlay going to win the BMW three of the last four years and just be a BMW specialist at all these different golf courses?

Who knows? He's a good fit for Castle Pines. Number seven, I have Victor Hovland in there because as it stands now on Sunday, he has a 92% chance of making the BMW Championship. He's currently T4. He does need to play well tomorrow to make the BMW Championship. He can't just free fall down the leaderboard.

But at a 92% shot, it's looking pretty damn good. And I think Victor is coming around. Victor is playing some really good golf this week. I never thought that he was as far away as maybe his results would suggest. And, you know, you look at Victor's numbers this week, it's a ball-striking display, man. He's fourth in approach play, fifth in off the tee.

30 second in around the green play, kind of all you need with Victor and 23rd and putting that is the stat line of good Victor Hovland of like average around the green play, slightly above average putting a lead approach, a lead off the tee. Like that is peak Victor Hovland. If he gets in, that's a pretty solid look. I'll run through the rest of these a little faster and

eight Justin Thomas, nine Sung Jae Im, 10 Corey Connors, 11 Colin Morikawa. I'm going to put this Sung Jae, Connors, Morikawa crew in the same bucket here where these guys are all still going to rate out quite well for me just because they've been playing so well lately. But I think Memphis was their best opportunity. And man,

a very classic Morikawa outcome would be winning this event, which he could. I don't think this is as good of a golf course for him as La Golf National or Memphis, but he's won at Muirfield Village. He plays well at Augusta. He played very well at Valhalla. This is by no means a bad Colin Morikawa golf course, but he's hit his irons terribly this week. He's

Kind of a true you-got-me situation if Morikawa hits his irons unbelievably well, and then the week that I bet him, he sucks, and then I don't bet him because he looked terrible, and then he magically plays great again. 50% of me doesn't want to overreact to how poorly Colin has looked this week, and I

50% of me wants to slap myself in the face if I go near him again this week. A golf course that I still think is a good fit for him, not quite as good of a fit for him as the past two weeks. 12, Sahitha Gala, 13, Adam Scott, 14, Hideki Matsuyama, 15, Benny Ahn, 16, Tommy Fleetwood, 17, Tom Kim, 18, Aaron Ride, 19, Sam Birds, 20, Keegan Bradley.

Gosh, and I think as it sits there right now, I think the numbers are going to be bad. 50-man field. But Finau, I guess, the strongest look. Are we doing that? Is Tony Finau going to be a community win? I don't think so. I'm going to try and...

calculate ways over the next 24 hours of why I shouldn't bet Tony Finau. But I guess the problem I have with the anti-Finau case is that if I don't bet Finau, then I'm concocting arguments for why I should bet Patrick Cantlay or why I should bet Victor Hovland, who

You know, I love Victor Hovland, but I think beware of the, this guy has been bad for a while and then plays great. He just wins. I think beware of that. I am kind of at the point with Hovland where it's like, I think we're going to see. My prediction was that he was going to have a strong finish to the season. I still don't know if he just gets a win or

But he could. It's a good golf course for him to do it at. So I guess kind of the guys I'm swimming around, if not Finau, it's kind of like Ludwig Cantlay-Havlund. I do think a big name is going to win this event. There are a couple guys farther down the board that I think are good sleepers. I think this is a good Bob McIntyre golf course.

But, you know, these FedExCup playoff events, once you get into, you know, the last couple of years, BMW Championship, it's 25 to 1 or lower every single time. Okay? So these BMW Championships, they're 1, you know, Justin Thomas 15 to 1, Rahm 10 to 1, Cantlay 25 to 1, Cantlay 16 to 1, Hovland 16 to 1.

So I do believe that this is going to be won by somebody under 25 to one. And I guess it's a maybe Finau, maybe Cantlay, maybe Hovland, maybe Ludwig week for me. We'll see. I'm excited to dive into this golf course further and dive into the numbers.

For Memphis on Sunday evening. When I return from this trip. You can find all of my updated thoughts. On the golf course. My full written breakdown. Of the golf course. Where I go way more in depth. On the science of altitude. And everything in between. Breakdown all of the skill categories. And the full breakdown of my model. At runpuresports.com. Code ANDY.

Check it out for a week. This is a fun week to do it because we'll have a bunch of good info from the grounds, from Castle Pines. A couple buddies that'll be there. I'll be...

Diving deep into the golf course as the week progresses based on the information that I get. Hopefully it's a good edge week for us because I feel very good about my Castle Pines breakdown. And I wouldn't be surprised if some narratives get a little bit more overwrought at this golf course than they deserve. And generally in those situations, that means opportunity for us. So

Let's get back up off the horse this week and rebound from Memphis. I'm, you know, feeling dangerous as after a poor showing in Memphis, I always bounce back strong. And prior to this week, it's been an incredible run for us the last couple of weeks. So feeling good about Castle Pines. I'm excited for this golf course.

It's way better. I think people are going to really like it. I think people are really going to respond to this golf course because, again, it's not going to win any architectural rewards, but it's

You can't argue with how fun this is going to be on television. And I think it's going to play with the elevation changes, and I think you're going to watch players slip up in altitude and make calculation errors. I think we're going to get a good leaderboard. I think it's going to be not hard, but hard enough where people aren't mad at it. The BMW championship has kind of settled in this –

15 under 20 under range. It's not a golf tournament. That's like necessarily supposed to be hard. It's never tried to be hard outside of that one crazy firm year at Olympia fields. Um,

So I think we're going to get some birdies, and I think it's going to be fun, and I think we're going to get a phenomenal leaderboard. That is my heavily optimistic spin on Castle Pines this week after I know that I was a little bit of a Debbie Downer this week on TPC Southwind, and I paid the price for it as TPC Southwind bit me back.

So that will do it for me. Best of luck with your bets this week on Sunday in Memphis. If you have Hideki, shout out to you. That was a good pick.

Hopefully we don't get too much of a snoozer tomorrow, though, and we see some good golf down the stretch, and we will be back on this podcast feed on Monday evening, diving deeper into the betting board for the BMW Championship. Until then, enjoy the rest of your weekend. Cheers!