Buying/Selling PGA Championship Narratives & Wells Fargo Picks with Geoff Fienberg
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If I ventured in the slipstream. This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by Run Pure Sports. This is the place to find all of my content. We're coming off another amazing week at the Byron Nelson. I have been so close. Yet another top 10 in the $100 single entry. My fourth of the season in that contest. This year's been my best ROI year to date in DFS by any means.

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Let us prove it to you. And this is certainly a good week to do it because the PGA Championship is on the horizon. I've already dove pretty deep into Valhalla, speaking to some caddies. We'll have some boots on the ground. So it is an amazing week to join the community. RunPureSports.com. Code Andy for 15% off. We'd love to have you as part of the team. All right, coming up on this podcast...

Bringing on my good friend, Jeff Feinberg of Mayo Media Network, my co-host on The Drive, an odd shaker video we do every week to play buy, sell, hold for the biggest narratives and storylines entering the 2024 PGA Championship.

So we talk everything. We talk Scotty. We talk Brooks. We talk Rory. We talk Ludwig. We actually live react to Ludwig withdrawing from the Wells Fargo. There's some Bryson talk, some Hovland talk. Well, can't lie talk. We pretty much go through all the big names state of their games heading into the season second major. So very fun golf discussion as always without further ado. Let's bring on Jeff.

All right, Jeff Feinberger's here, my co-host on The Drive. We do a weekly video for Oddshaker. He also pops on this podcast a couple times a year. It's been a while since we've done this. Buddy, how are we doing today on this Monday morning? I am doing well. Not really a Monday morning. I don't know why I said that. It's 4.30 for you. Yeah, good old Monday afternoon. No, I'm doing good. Right in the sort of what feels like the middle of a long golf season, but...

We're about to start a run of some extended quality events. So I'm good. Hope to just bet them responsibly. Are you ready for another major? Do you like how bunched up it feels like it is this year? It's basically just major, three weeks, major, three weeks, major for the next nine weeks. I'm not going to lie. I don't think I mind it.

Yeah, I don't know. There's not really a ton else to be that excited about week to week in golf. NBA, NFL playoffs, I guess the only thing if you're into that, if that's your cup of tea. Yeah, no, I just mean in the golf landscape, right? There's not a ton. And I enjoy the less... As golf fans, those lower tier events, watching Taylor play Coles as an example, there's charm to that.

I could argue there's more drama in that than outside of majors. But this week when say Patrick Cantley is going up against, you know, Rory for the win, I would make the case that like Penderth V. Coles is like way more drama. Like what are those two playing for more money? Yeah. There's no legacy guys are playing to the signature vets, which was kind of always the hole in the PGA tour argument of staying on the PGA tour of like a

I'm staying for a legacy, which I actually don't think was like, I think that was more of a talking point than something PGA tour players actually believed. I thought there are, there were really good reasons for staying on the PGA tour. I don't think that like building your legacy in the game happens though, by how many times you win quail hollow, contrary to what, what Rory may believe. Yeah. I would say, I mean, unfortunately, uh,

I'd say what the division in golf has kind of done, sadly, is it's really sort of ripped the bloom off the rose on events like this week, like Quail Hollow, like Bay Hill. Like, oh, they're just...

And maybe like we're young, dumb and naive to ever believe that they meant more anyway. But no, nothing really matters. I feel like four majors and if you're into the Olympics, I will get into the Olympics. I think it's going to be fun this year. Yeah, four majors in the Olympics. That's what the golf calendar is. I felt like winning Riviera and Bay Hill and Muirfield Village was

used to mean something in fairness. Like I didn't feel like it always used to be this way, but to me, it's now more of just a barometer of like, when I'm watching a signature of that for quail hollow this week, we're in quail hollow week, which is a good event. Like one of the more premier golf courses on the PGA tour to me this week is more about

Everything is through the prism of the PGA championship. Right. So like everything is through, it's not about winning quail hollow that I care about. It is about watching the guys who are in the best shape to perform the next week. Right. And I don't think that's,

The PGA tour's goal is to put on events that simply feel like placeholders and precursors. But I think that's kind of where we're at right now. Like I'm watching this week. I'm more curious to watch guys that I have interest in and Valhalla, how they perform than I would be in necessarily maybe the outcome of this tour, the actual tournament as, as it pertains to like a golfer. Yeah, I totally agree.

And there's just so many people. Which is, by the way, the same reason I watch Lev, right? Like, I don't care who wins the web tournaments or what happens. But the reason I watch Lev is to see who's turning it up before a major. You know, that's all very fair. And let's be honest. Like, a lot of people are just going to tune in on Sunday at dinnertime because they know it's evergreen. That golf's going to be on Sunday at dinnertime, just like the sun rises and just like, you know, the evening news comes on.

They probably don't even know that Valhalla is next week. They'll find out Valhalla is next week, like next week. Probably right. Yeah. And it's not like the masters where it's, you set your calendar plan, everything around it. It's kind of running a hundred days out, like commercials and stuff. No, for the P and listen, I'll say this, the PGA championship, Andy, since it's made this move to this two spot on the major calendar, it's been awesome.

Since I started being a part of this golf podcast ecosystem, no major has delivered better courses, better leaderboards, winners. Yeah. Check, check, check. They're best in show. I truly mean that in terms of...

the majors that have a rotating course circuit. They've hit home run after home run, and we don't sort of expect, we're not as snobby about the PGA Championship as we are the US Open. It's a good point. Our standards for it are a bit lower. If the scoring gets a bit silly, we don't lose our mind like we do what happened last year at LA Country Club. Right.

Right. You know, they, but they've done a great job of getting a leaderboard exact, not exactly, but a leaderboard where golf fans are going to be happy on Sunday, regardless on these great challenging days.

And they've managed to not have runaway scores without the reputation that the U S open has of like, we're going to kill these guys or try to kill them or something like, right. And then when they fall short, it's like they deserve criticism because they're

That's how you're marketing your tournament. Yeah. So we almost have give more wiggle room to the PGA championship. Maybe our expectations are lower, but there's a potpourri of reasons where I truly believe it is. It has consistently been the best in and on the calendar year in and

year out. So they'll probably do it again. They'll probably do it again next week. Cause I love Val Holland. What's Val Holland given us Rory and tiger. So I don't know. I mean, just it's probably bad news for anyone who likes someone who's not a superstar. Well, okay. So that's, that's a good transition to what I want to talk about and we'll weave in some Wells Fargo talk here and there. If you want us, if you want to hear us get a lot more deep on Wells Fargo, we just did an odds checker video. It's on their YouTube page. Um,

for giving out our best bets for that. But we'll weave in some Wells Fargo talk, but I wanted to, as it pertains to PGA, because I wanted to do a little gimmick, a little buy, sell, hold for PGA narratives, Jeff. So I'm going to give you a couple of big narratives that I'm watching next week. And I want you to tell me if you're buying the narrative, selling it, if you think it's a bad take or hold. Like,

Yeah, I'm not there yet, but I'm not ruling it out. Go. Okay. Number one, Brooks Koepka winning live Singapore is a very strong car binger and he should be maybe the second at worst, the third favorite into Valhalla. And we are on official Brooks number six watch.

buying it. Brooks, as he said himself, he knows how to defend a championship. He's still working on the three-peat, but he knows how to defend a championship, Andy. I already said this to Pat Mayo earlier today. At the Masters, he was popular. So a lot of people wanted to bet him a 22-1. I even saw the books not budging on the number. I even saw books offering to boost the number, baiting the Brooks money out of Gustav.

You know what I'm not expecting to see next week? The books trying to truly bait you into betting Brooks. You mentioned where he slotted. I, yeah. I mean, maybe with Rory doesn't play really well this week. I can see a case where he is maybe tied with Rory or a pointer to behind Rory on next week's board. So I will buy. I'm not saying I'm betting, but I'm buying exactly what you just said. Yeah. Got to.

I'm going to hold only because I think that Pinehurst is a better fit for him than Valhalla. And I kind of, at the beginning of the year, when I was previewing the mention, uh, the majors had him penciled in as, uh,

I don't know if Brooks is going to win a major this year. Getting to six is some pretty wild company to be in, but I think there's a very high likelihood that he is going to be relevant in at least one major this year. And when I say relevant, I mean this guy is there in the mix on the weekend at a major. If you're asking me to draft my top picks for what majors it would be, I would put Pinehurst first.

Valhalla second and the open championship third. So, you know, I like this golf course for Brooks, right? Like there's a lot of Oak Hill and Valhalla. I just prefer Pinehurst a little bit more and kind of my, my preconceived understandings of Pinehurst Valhalla. The only reason why I'm holding is just because like in my head, I've kind of always had him penciled in for that Pinehurst spot, but I could be wrong. He could be peaking too early. He could, or not too early, but he could be peaking right now.

Yeah, I don't know when he wins a week before. Like, I know there's not the total sample size, but on live. That's what happened at the mass, right? That's what I mean. Yeah. Okay. The lead in like, oh, yeah, I'm telling you. And here's the other part of it. I'll be honest to God. True. And I don't think I'm saying anything controversial or honestly something we weren't saying before the Masters.

I like a lot of these guys near the top. You know, that'll be under 25 to one, 30 to one. But I actually trust so few of them. Yeah. Which is an indictment that it's like shit. Like I ended up on living so much because I don't trust the other guys. I just don't. Brooks, you can actually trust. So, yeah. I'm...

I'm buying despite not betting. It's like the safest bet on the board, right? What's the counter argument to 18 to one on Brooks or 20 to one on Brooks? It's like a trump card. Somebody says they're betting Brooks at a majors, particularly PGA or US Open. It's like, what are you going to say? When is that a bad bet? Exactly. What number is it a bad bet at? Why is he...

18 and Rory's eight, right? That will never make sense to anyone. That's a good lead into our next buy. So hold, where are you at on the Rory hype train? Saw the ball go through the hoop at Zurich, but it was a team event and he was our last winner at Valhalla. So it feels like you can set your clock to every single year. There is going to be a major that Rory has previous ties to that.

can catapult the Rory machine, right? Last year at Ocala's West from Rochester. Okay.

Royal, uh, Liverpool. He won a major at Royal Liverpool in 2014. We're back at Valhalla where Rory won the last PGA championship held at Valhalla in 2014. And he's coming off a win at, at the Zurich where I watched a fair amount of the Zurich. Like he looked amazing. Like he definitely put Shane on his back in that event. And now he's going to quail hollow where he's the favorite and he's won three times. It can probably pencil him in for another, uh,

Strong finish. Counterpoint hasn't won a major in 10 years. A lot of people, probably me as well at this point, as I mentioned on my master's recap show, just kind of done with his shit at majors. So where are you? Are you buying, selling or holding the Rory McIlroy hype machine at the site of his former win at Valhalla in 2014? Yeah, I'm buying it because I think he's going to play great at Quail Hollow.

And as you mentioned, every year Rory comes into a major that there are course ties to. Like, he's been doing these majors for so long, and even though he hasn't won in a while, he's performed at them for so long that you joke, like, there's not... I don't know what you take anymore. Like, there's a...

There is a sample for every sort of way he can enter a major. Like we've seen him enter a major on fire winning. We've seen him enter majors cold. We just like everything, like everything around a major. We can like say, oh, that's the time Rory did that. That's the time Rory like stayed away. The sample size is there with him at this point for every. Yeah. There's just so many, you know, it's like hard to quote like Rory, his form entering a major. Like we've seen the whole gamut.

Like we have, I'm set. Like I I'm selling in the sense that like, I'm just not going to bet him to win. There's just a lot of noise in between here. It's not the master sort of noise for him, but I'll be, I'm all, I really want it to happen, but I'm not betting. I'm not financially investing in it, but I do believe it could. So I'll say hold, but yeah, I'm not betting it.

No chance, but yeah, that hype will be there. Cause I'm expecting him to have a great four days in Charlotte. Totally exactly the same page. I talked about Rory extensively on, on my master's recap on multiple shows where I'm just like, I'm going to miss it. I've tried, I've tried it so many times and I'm going to miss it. And a lot of the times I've said that it was time. I was really damn close. Like there hasn't been a lot of majors where,

where I think the worst performance that he's had at a major that I've bet him at in the last three years was this year's masters. But I had my heart ripped out at LACC. I had my heart ripped out at St. Andrews. I'm just going to miss it. And that's okay. Okay. Next one. Buy, sell, hold the narrative that the baby is a reason to fade. Scotty. Are you so hold that the, okay. I've done this. Yeah.

I am selling. Yeah. And I will just tell you guys why I don't think it's like, how do you put this by selling means? Like, I mean, it won't affect him. Right. Correct. Because I think I'm trying to think of like what people are going to be saying heading into these majors. That's why I'll tell you what I'm going to be saying.

Meredith is a champ and Meredith probably deep down is a killer and Meredith ain't going to let this thing like he's going to, he's so it goes both ways. Like when shitty, not shitty players, when players like who haven't won or I desperately want to see get over the line,

I referenced like baby swag. It's like, okay, you struggle to make that eight footer. Well, now you have that eight footer with like, I don't care if I make or miss, I'm going home to a baby who doesn't care if I make or miss, it's going to look at me the same, whether I make or miss there's like, um, yes. Ricky Fowler said, yeah, there's an, but I, there's like an afterglow that you just have, right. As someone who's been a father of three, like even doing, it's just a bit of an afterglow and I'm not trying to hit the putts the next day, but yeah,

I don't know. I think we're all trying to quantify Scotty having this baby as if it's like our world. And it's not our world. It's a different world. As if it's never happened before, too. Right? No, but I'm also like...

You know, they don't have babies like you or I. I'm not saying there's going to be a team of nannies because he's going to want to be a little heads on. But there's going to be a night nurse. There's going to be nannies in the morning. There's going to be nannies at the evening. I don't know. I'm selling. Like, I don't think it's going to stop him. If anything, the afterglow is only going to make him better.

more invincible. That would honestly be my lean. I don't know when the baby's been born. Like maybe you just hope it just takes a long time and it happens like the two days before. Yeah. But if that thing comes out this weekend or something, nah, I think he's going to be golden. Yeah. I truly mean that. Yeah. So I, I'm selling like you, the idea that the baby is,

Is the reason to fade Scotty Scheffler. But I would...

I would argue for a different reason that this is the major that I actually think that he's the least likely to win of the upcoming three. I think Pinehurst is the one that he's most likely to win because that's a really cerebral golf course like Augusta that is really challenging around the greens and is really firm and fast and is going to allow him to separate based on his skill set the same way that he was able to separate at the Masters. I think Pinehurst is going to play a lot harder.

than Valhalla this year. I know that last year, LACC and Oak Hill played similar. I don't think that's going to be the case. I think Valhalla is going to be one of the easier PGA championship venues. And I think that we've seen over the last five years. And I think that Pinehurst is going to be one of the harder PGA championship venues that we've seen over the last five years. And I think the harder the golf course, the easier it is for Scottie Scheffler to separate. I think that

you know, forgive me for repeating myself, but I, I, so I'll keep it brief, but I think you want to play Scotty on really cerebral golf courses where decision-making matters. And I think there's an element of Valhalla where you can kind of just turn your brain off and murder the ball off the tee like Rory. And that's why I think Bryson's going to win next week. So I'm like you, I'm selling the idea that the baby is the reason that

To fade Scotty, but I do think that I am significantly less afraid of Scheffler this week than I am at Pinehurst. But that is more golf course related than baby related, if that makes sense. I mean, like long term, you hope he wants to be the world's greatest dad.

Because if he's just interested in being like an okay dad, then we're fucked. Then everyone is screwed. Then everyone is screwed. But yeah, I'm not afraid. No, I don't think it's in his DNA though. I think he's, I think he wants to, to be very hands-on from every. Okay, fine. But it's still like one kid and you know, he pairs it.

I don't want to say it. I know when you're having your first kid, it's the biggest thing in the world. But then you look back and you're going to laugh. Like, oh my God, first kid? We had me. We had my wife. We had our parents. Our sisters. There were like 14 hands for this one baby. Like, Scottie's going to be... I don't think it's going to stop him. That's an interesting take that Valhalla might...

open up the board a bit because it's easier which could let like deeper relatively speaking like in the prism of of pinehurst and augusta if that makes sense like i still think you're going to see an incredible leaderboard of alhalla of the best players but i don't think that scotty is going to have the same there's levels to it right i just don't think that scotty is going to have

If I was building a golf course for Scotty Scheffler, it'd be Pinehurst, right? So I don't think Scotty is going to have the same type of advantage that he does at Pinehurst, but like he'll have more of an advantage over the field at Valhalla than he would at Harbortown. And he smoked the field at Harbortown. So it's all relative. That makes sense. Yeah. Jeez. Hey, well, maybe Scotty four to one.

Those country club dads, if they just put 25 K on Scottie at four to one, they can pay for the money. They wasted sending their kid to Ivy league this year. So try to get it. I was at a wedding last weekend and a lot of my friends that I haven't seen in a while, uh,

I obviously know that I work in golf, right? And these are all very, some of them really big sports fans, but most of them very casual golf fans. And they were just like Scotty at the Masters, easy money. It's like the easiest bet I've ever made. I'm like, Howard, you should be doing my job. I was the one overthinking that one, weren't I? Yeah.

But I said it, Andy, like the analogy was perfect because I don't know anything about college basketball. And how did I, I bet you can't four to one to win the title. Everyone said that was easy money. And I watched the games. I was like, well, that was easy money. That's the easiest money. And I bet you the Scheffler bros, you know, not like, well, that probably felt the exact same way. And then he won again at Harbortown. So, um,

I expect the books to have tons of liability on, on him. Like, how could they not? How are the casuals? Even at four to one, I'd say, uh, go bet Scotty at four and Brooks at 16. And there's your two man sweat. You'll be fine. Like you should be good. If nothing else, you're sweating Sunday. I promise. Uh, but me is like a golf guy wants to build a card. You know, we're just, we're going to build a, build a card.

But yeah, I don't know. It's NBA playoffs. I'm not doing it, but I'm sure if you're a sharp, there's got to be a baseball game, a basketball game, a NHL playoff game. You try to take Scotty to eight to one. Good. I mean, I don't know. I don't, I'm not watching enough to try to do that, but maybe. I think those are like the biggest narratives that I want to hit on. So the next thing,

tier that I'm going to go into is more like either or where I'm going to give you two players that I think are really fascinating at the PGA. And I'm excited to watch this week. And you're going to tell me better chance to win more likely you are to get behind them. Okay. Ready? Here's the first one. Rom or Ludwig at Valhalla.

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. For

$45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. Don't do this to me. I'm letting it 100 to 1. Okay?

But honestly, if ROM gets like, has that, by the way, is that the best CLV you've gotten in your life? Like in the golf market, has there ever been, maybe there's been times where you've bet a guy at one 50 and he closed at 80. Like, have you ever seen a guy get from a hundred to 12?

It's the best CLV you've ever, on a bet you've ever made in your life. It's the best ticket you've ever held in your life, probably. Yeah. Because 100 to 12 is way more significant than a guy going from 150 to 60. And I had 100 at the Masters too, Andy, but this Valhalla ticket I made before the Masters because the Master, I felt like you can get into the PGA, like you didn't need to win to get into the PGA Championships.

There was a point where like, I don't know if Ludwig would get into as great as he was last summer. There was still a bit of an unknown. Like, can he get into the masters? I mean, he wasn't on the rider. He was still two months away from a rider cup team, but Valhalla, not only like the course type for what his skillset was, but that was the one that I hit first because his entry into that tournament felt like it was way more open than getting into the masters category.

During last summer. So yeah, maybe it is. There's a chance I bet ROM next week. If that number keeps going up, despite me, I kind of like, I'm a, I'm a live neutral, maybe like below neutral. Like I don't, you know, and I can kind of maybe enjoy this narrative of like ROM, not winning on live, but that's unrealistic and not going to last very long. From's number keeps going up. I could be interested in next week. I'll say that, you know what? I will say ROM.

Crazy enough, but I've got Ludwig in the pocket, so that's a cop-out. So I'll say Rob. I love Ludwig next week at Valhalla, and I still think...

is slightly more likely to win this golf tournament. Yeah. Yeah. I still think, and I was really heavy on ROM at the masters. I didn't bet him, but I played him a lot in DFS and was just really disappointed by his performance. He's actually coming off his worst live performance of the season, which is a 10th, believe it or not, which kind of just shows what his floor is in these love events. And,

And I still think at the end of the day. I don't know, what do you quantify your live floor event? Like when you're a Jon Rahm, how do you quantify live floor? Because I just want to put this out there. And again, I said I could bet him next week, but now I'm going to take a chance to pick on him. All those guys like one on like Dustin, Cam,

Brooks has won four times on live now, right? And Brooks doesn't even care about non-majors to the extent that, that Ron probably does. I don't like, I'm talking about truly like the highest end of that tour. Like the super, the guys that have at some point flirted with super elites didn't really struggle to find their win there. Now, Ron's acknowledged. It's a bit of a,

Yeah. Total like culture shock in many ways. For sure. And I'm not debate like he's freaking awesome. Yeah. And if you're a long time fan of mine, like anytime we had to pick from the big three a year ago or the last like handful of years, like I'd always default to Rob. I love him. I'm sad to see him go. Yeah. I, you know, I'm sure people heard me say this on Mayo today and have seen me tweet it before.

I do not care. Like I look at live still Andy, like I'm a spoiled brat child and live. They, they ruined my, they ruined my parents' marriage. And I don't care if the marriage wasn't perfect. They were my parents and I loved it. And I'm not calling you a fucking mom ever because you're ruined something I really liked.

So, yeah, I'm just, I'm yeah, that's my, that's my look on, on live still. That being said, like John Rom wins next week and I bet him I'll call your mom. Yeah. Yeah. I'm not sounding the alarm bells that Rom hasn't won on live yet. I think there's,

been clearly a bit of an adjustment period. And what there's been ROMs played in five live events. Like what, what do you want him to win at? You know, if he goes the whole season without winning on live, I sure think that would, that would surprise me and be fairly alarming, but who cares what ROM does on live? Like if ROM finishes, uh,

20th on live every year but continues to win majors like isn't that what we should care about right no who cares who cares yeah so he i like brooke i mean yes brooks had lead in wins he played well at the masters so it's unfair to be like brooks won the pga last year off of live but

rom is so super talented i can in some ways hold them to the same standards in some way as for sure like i like if you were asking me before the season do what i have expected rom to have won on live by now i would have told you yes like i thought there was a universe where rom was the greatest most dominant live player in history like i thought it was in play i thought it

in a parallel universe, it was in play that ROM, you know, was winning all of these. Right. So I, a little bit surprised for sure, but I'm not sounding the alarm, but I think a lot of people would answer Ludwig to that question though, Jeff, to be honest with you, I really do. I may put a Twitter poll on that out later, but I think we're probably a little bit higher on, like, you know, I said, this is the odds checker video.

Unless Ludwig is not good at Wells Fargo, and this points to a lot of people at Wells Fargo, I'd be shocked if Rahm closes lower than him. I would be. Right now, it's Rahm 16, Ludwig 14, something like that, or Rahm 14, Ludwig 12. I think that would flip. I wouldn't be surprised if that would flip. Or yeah, it's Rahm 14-14.

Ludwig 16. I think that flips. Like, I don't think ROM's getting to 20, but I think it closes like ROM 17, Ludwig 13, unless he drops the ball at Wells. ROM is, and again, I got Ludwig in my pocket with the CLV. I'll brag about ROM. I think is going to be the under 20 to one player. I'm going to want to bet next week. Like as of right now, we're still a week away. I don't have to make that decision yet.

I, I, again, I, I see, I feel like I saw 16 today and I'm like, that is, you know, you don't need to watch him in the way. Like you'll watch other guys who are playing this week. Worried the number's going to drop, but yeah, I mean, ROM has my full attention for next week. I could be on that wagon big time, big time. Can I give you another, another either or yeah. Xander can't lie more likely to win the PGA.

Like this is a, I don't know what your answer is, but can I ask you, did you feel like, is it very close or you are very confident in an answer? Because my answer would be like 52, 48, like one side. I am. And it may surprise you. I know you're going to say can't lay that. I am because I have penciled. I think that this is a phenomenal course fit for can't lay. I think that this golf course is a lot like Mirafield village and

It's the right agronomy for him. It's the right scoring conditions from him. I am very likely, unless I see something completely alarming at Wells, I'm very likely to start my card Bryson Cantlay. I have a straighter. I really like Cantlay at Valhalla. And I will say this.

Buddy, if you're not showing up at this one, I don't know when you're showing up at the majors. Because like I said, and you can make this argument for Hovland, that was my December card.

Hovland, Cantlay, Bryson. But if Cantlay isn't showing up at this one, I don't know what major he's showing up on because I think that the Jack Nicklaus of this all, the back grass of this all, he's starting to hit his irons great again. I think this is such a good spot for Cantlay and he better show up. What number is Bryson for next week? I have 35 to one, but he's down to 28. I don't mind...

I see a can. I have a streeter that has Cantley at 33. That's for next week. I'd probably bet that I would. I'm the only reason I would. I just want to see what happens at Wells Fargo. Yeah, no, I haven't bet it, but I like this. Like they could pull these at any moment, probably when play starts. And it only has my attention because, you know, I saw that Ben Cooley picked him to win this week.

which I I'm not doing, but clearly if he plays well this week, he will be back in his like low 20 staple major spot. Right. Yeah. And I think it's put up or shut up time for him. Like I get the, this is kind of my final stand on can't lay at majors. I understand that there are a lot of people that have validly quit on him at majors already, even though his major record is like,

a lot better than you would think. Like he has kind of become a top 20 machine in these things without really ever really sniffing a real chance to win over the weekend. He's just been a few minor details off, but you know, I kind of had that experience with Rory at the masters where I just, I needed to go through that one more time before I let him go. And that's, this is probably it for me with can't lay at majors if, if it doesn't work out, but yeah,

I think he's a phenomenal golf course for Cantlay. So I would go Cantlay over Xander, even though Xander has been objectively better than him this year. Like Xander has been just in terms of consistency, the second best player in the world to Sheffler from a strokes gain standpoint this year. And even if you want to say Ludwig and Wyndham are better golfers than Xander right now, which I'd agree with at worst Xander has been a top five golfer in the world this season in terms of his play.

He's finishing top 10 of us every week. A lot of guys haven't showed up for school. Xander showed up for school this year. He just hasn't, he hasn't had that, that ACE victory, but like a lot of guys just didn't show up. Can't lay, didn't really show up for a lot of this year. Mark. Can't leave showed up. Like he had a lot of great first rounds and then, you know, but like, come on, dude, come on, Pat. Like,

And I am really aware a lot of those guys have left. Like can't lay. I think there's almost just an argument that can't lay an even better player than Xander. Like show up for work, man. There's three players. There's three higher end players that I think I'm really keeping an eye on at Wells Fargo. We discussed Victor in our OC video. Obviously we'd love to see life. If you don't mind discussing again, he was my next guy. Yeah, no, we will. But I was also going to say, can't lay.

Like, I'm like, he played really well at the heritage. He's always T5 at the heritage. So I want to see him play really well again at Wells Fargo to actually think like, okay, he's fine. He's playing like Cantley again. Not just, oh, that was the one off on the course. He seems to like more than any other course, you know, heritage and Mirfield village seem to be like the highest level.

Kentley results courses consistently. I could be forgetting others because he plays well so many places. So he's a guy that I'm closely watching as is Hideki. Like if those, if we see that pre masters ball striking again, I think he could totally be in play, but yeah, I'm full eyes on.

I'm expecting Xander to be Xander, but I want Cantley to get back to that consistency and I could back him next week. Maybe. Okay. I've got about three to four more quicker ones from you that will, will rep through Hovland or Neiman.

And the reason I paired these two guys up together is because I do think there are a lot of similarities in these players. They're similar ages. Neiman's actually a little bit younger. Neiman's been playing a hell of a lot better than Hovland this year.

And it's a phenomenal course fit for Neiman too. Like they do a lot of the same things very well when they're on and Neiman has a way better short game than Hovland and the ball striking has been better than Hovland. I think we're both probably going to say Hovland's more likely to win just because we've penciled in Valhalla, uh, Hovland for Valhalla forever. But like, if you're going to argue that Neiman's more likely to win the PGA than Hovland, like I, I can't really agree.

Can't really fault you for that take. It's pretty sound. Yeah, I don't even, I honestly could say Neiman because I'm pretty sure two years ago, I asked the sports books, like no one, as a joke, but like, I will sign a eight-year contract of this guy, like betting this guy in every PGA championship for the next eight years because he seems like he's perfect for them. And he's playing better in this moment.

And I mean, when I don't think there's a chance Hovland gives us no warning that he goes from broken to fixed without a warning sign. But I don't know. It is more likely we do see a bit of an uptick first. And while that could happen at Wells Fargo, and I'll be closely watching for it and hoping it happens. Andy, I'm going to tell you Neiman. Yeah. Can't disagree. I mean, that's why Hovland's like,

the player i'm most interested to watch this week at at wells oh because he looks good at wells yeah i would be right yeah i think you should have your thumb quick like if you see those signs of life right that he's unbroken although maybe you would have thought that during the first round of the masters that he unbroke himself but um

He's Humpty Dumpty. He's falling off the wall. Let's hope the pieces are getting put back together. Right. Like if there's a 28 right now and he starts off hot, I mean, that's, that's a goner. And I think a lot of people are like holding Hovland 25 futures, which is, uh,

Kind of what he's at right now. So you're kind of in an interesting spot where if he stinks again... Yeah, I'm one of those people. I got Valhalla Futures. What number? 25? 30? Yeah, probably 30. 28? 30? I mean, he's stunk all year and he's still at that number. Yeah, but we'll see. He stinks again after a little bit of a layoff. That's going to balloon to 40, 50. Agreed. Agreed. Okay, here's an interesting one. I kind of like the live PGA ones. These guys...

I don't know how many career parallels there are, but they're right next to each other on the odds board. Homa or Cam Smith. I'm going to say Homa because of the golf course. I think Cam Smith is, I may bet Cam Smith at Pinehurst. I think Cam Smith is, is going to be a dirty, dirty dog at Pinehurst, but I like this golf course for home and more. Yeah. Cam's coming around a couple of second places on live in the last little bit. He was good at, at, uh, yeah, he's kind of like a self-admitted, uh,

He gets to play on a tour that has an actual off season. And he's kind of self-admitted that like he likes having an off season and really enjoys it and almost uses the start of the season to like warm up for summer. Looks like he's starting to warm up.

I, uh, Eileen can, that's a tough one. I don't love max as much as the world does. Yeah. I can't fault you for saying cam. I mean, cam's a guy that has consistently shown up in majors way more than, than max it just more of a course fit for thing for me. Zalator's cam young. That is a couple, couple cams on the PGA tour. Oh my God. Ludwig just withdrew from the Wells Fargo breaking news. Shut up. Dead serious.

I mean, sources, Brian Kirschner. I'm checking Twitter right now. No, no, it's real. Yeah. Knee. Oh my God. Now I'm just worried about those hundos. Now he's injured. The dream futures. Oh, okay. Whatever. Why did he, I, I didn't, why did he withdraw this week? Maybe he's a little banged up. He just wants to be a hundred percent for next week. Yeah, I suppose. Okay. Well, that'll save me some money. Okay. Whatever.

Newest member of the Bay golf club replacing. Oh yeah. Yeah. Newest member of the Bay. Who did you ask about there? I asked about cam young versus wills all tours. I can start if you want me to. Yeah, I don't know. That's a toss. I'm going cam young again, golf course related. I think they have similar fits, but I think that Zalataurus is going to shine at Pinehurst. Um,

You know, Zal is, it's close. Zal is a totally acceptable answer because just confirming this with this caddy, this is what he lives for. These are his four weeks of the year. This is, this is what he cares about more than anything else. I think he is going to be a bonafide, continue to raise his baseline in majors. And he's really good at understanding how to peak for these weeks. Like,

I watched him on Tuesday in a practice round at the masters and he looked so comfortable and so relaxed. And that, that caused me to bet him 45 to one at the masters. And that obviously didn't come through, but he played great. And I think he's going to continue to play great at majors. I just, I kind of haven't penciled in for Pinehurst. And I think Cam Young Valhalla is far more of a bomber track than Pinehurst. And I,

cam young still hits the ball a lot farther than zelotor's particularly coming off that injury and i think valhalla is a very much turn your brain off and mash the ball off the tee and i think the the road map that cam young has at valhalla is very similar to the one that we saw deployed by rory in 2014 but i think you're splitting hairs either is acceptable you're not sure of course of course fed i give the slight edge to cam young

Trust in terms of like being the last man standing, you probably give a little bit of the edge to Sal Torres. So it's close. Yeah, I actually, I would agree with your total, your full assessment there, but real close for me. All right. I'm going to give you a fun one. This we're wrapping up though. Taylor Gooch or Jordan Spieth. Taylor Gooch.

But speed going for the grand slam. Why doesn't that get like any place? Cause he's just a guy, man. Is he? Okay. Sure. It's just a guy. Doesn't play good enough golf with has to matter at some point. I, I, I, I'm going to still, I'm going to still say Spieth has a better chance to win a major than Taylor Gooch, but I don't, it's an acceptable answer. Okay, fine. You're right. In terms of when you're right. Winner speed. But if you made me better head to head,

I bet Gooch. Yeah. Yeah. I got to dive into the left stats on Gooch and like, you know, all my knowledge of Gooch is anecdotally, he's the best arm player of the last 25 years, but it should be a better golf course for Gooch.

I mean, Spieth actually, one of the one things he's been doing well this season has been driving. Spieth's been driving the ball pretty well this season, and his irons have been substandard. What do you think Rory's number goes to now that Ludwig is at? At Wells? Yeah. Seven, seven, six, 6.5. I mean, I don't know if a lot of people are going to bet Rory, right? I think the numbers that get hit are...

You know, Wyndham, I think, will maybe take a bit of a dive with Ludwig withdrawing and maybe some of the guys in the 20s, too. Your your Cantlays and Hovlands and Maracalas and Homas. Maybe those. Yeah. And those guys that like 30 might drop to like 28 or something. Yeah. OK. Last one at Valhalla. Hideki Justin Thomas. Hideki.

Yeah, I like JT a lot more than you do, I think. Maybe. I don't know. I'm in this. Sure. I don't not like JT. I guess like framing it that I don't. I just so good. Louisville guy. So get the, you know. Yeah, I don't know that that helps hurt. Yeah, could actually hurt the home game in a major. And Justin, he like hears the noise.

Right. So I don't know that that's a checkmark help, but Hideki had a bad first round at the masters. I don't know that he's had many bad rounds in like, and that's a guy who I'm really, if I see that he's hitting it on an arrow, I'll go, I'll just get him up. You know, he had too much hype for them. I going into the masters, that hype calm, it quiets a bit, which might not, if he plays great at quail, but these are two guys I'm actually interested in how they both play.

perform and like you yeah i'm watching to see uh what i might want to do next week okay just rapid fire just give me a name of many of you like just a few final ones phenol fleetwood you're like putting you're you're like yeah i'm good i'm i'm i'm good at this game yeah you know your audience yeah you put us in a pretzel i'm trying to get real pairings that are you know

I don't know if they're all going to be consistent at majors, but like the female get female, you say, close your eyes and rip snort full send. Yeah. He now can up that swing speed to the moon. Yeah. So yeah, you know what? Be now, be now. No, it's not actually that hard. Despite me always having the, yeah. Based on course fit. Be now for me, Tommy at the open and, and Pinehurst. If you're asking me that same question, Patrick Reed, Ricky Fowler.

Patrick Reed. Yeah, I agree with that. Fowler was second here, if you remember, back in the day. Last one. Saheth, Matt Fitzpatrick. It's another toughie, huh? Yeah, I honestly think Saheth.

I think so too. I think so too. Let me ask Matt's one, the major. Yeah. So I was looking, I see. So it was like what? 60, 70 to one next week. Yeah. It's a good, fair number. It's a, and he's 30 to one this week. And I would say that's one of the bigger gaps in terms of guys, guys who are around 30 to one this week. Most of them are probably like 40 next week. So it's all the way like 66, 70 next week. Yeah. So have,

Okay, Jeff Feinberg, that's all I got for you, buddy. Any closing thoughts? You happy with the draft? Yeah, I'm happy. It's a new way. Like, it's just where we're, it's like, we're going to try to play some meat and potatoes football, Andy. I joked last year. We talked chargers ball. My motto was fun and sadness. Like the games were probably going to be fun. We're going to throw the ball a lot and lose. Not because I'm blaming the quarterback. I think it's just going to be like,

It's going to be less fun, but I hope to win more. What do you think the ceiling is? What's the ceiling like 10 and seven? Yeah, that's probably the ceiling. I fully expect them to compete for a playoff spot. Yeah, I don't. I think the like, I don't think they're going to be bad. I think they're going to be middling. It's going to be hard. Yeah. If they have a great offensive line.

You know, Herbert doesn't have many. His like turnover worthy throw stat is like one or two in the league. Like he does not throw many balls out of his hand or as it gets to the DB or like that should have been a pick. So if they have a really good offensive line, they don't turn the ball over. They should be fine. My expectation is compete for the playoffs. Like we're not where Kansas City is. That's an unfair even thing to even think

Get that. But I just mean, you look at last year, like Pittsburgh made the playoffs. Indy had a one and done game to make the playoffs. Like shitty teams compete for that seven seed. I would, I need to compete for that spot or I'll be really disappointed. Sounds about right. I ran my first NFL model, which has in the past had more success for me sometimes in golf models. And I have them.

Post-draft 20th out of 32 teams, which puts them seven and 10 in the seven and 10, eight and nine zone. Yeah. With room on either side. I think the over under for wins this year is probably eight, right? Yeah, no, it's actually higher. And if you ask me the day when totals came out, I would say like charges are inflated. You know, there's a bit of hype surrounding coach and all that. So it's an inflated, it is an inflated, um,

They do have the second easiest schedule in the league though. Yeah, that makes a huge difference. So maybe they can, we like, maybe there's wins. There's just going to be some wins. But what are the, that that's tough. Like the second easiest schedule in the league based on last year's records.

I seen it based on last year's records and someone did a thing based on like wind total for this year. All our, all our opponents expected wind total numbers. We come in second. Okay. See, that's what I'd be looking at is the wind totals for this year. That's encouraging then. Yeah. So, and I get, listen, they, they finished, they were horrible. They have the last place schedule or sorry, they now have a last place schedule and,

So their crossover games are against shitty teams, but hey, maybe they are one of those shitty teams. I'm just hoping there's a coach, there's a quarterback. Let's go. I don't know. I'm pretty... For a team...

Yeah. I'm up like we, we, they spend money on the coach, so I'm a little optimistic, but it'll end in sadness. It always does. Okay. Jeffrey, this is a blast, my friend. Pleasure as always. And I'll talk to you. I'll talk to you next week for the PGA buddy. Thanks for doing this. Always. And you, you rip man, you, you, I'm going to like leave this. I'm still in a pretzel from some of those, like one V ones you gave me.

I'll be thinking about them like lying in bed tonight again. So yeah, we'll see, but always a good time, Andy. Anytime you need me boss. All right. Thanks buddy. Talk soon, my friend. All right. That's it for the podcast. Special. Thanks to Jeff. Special. Thanks to run pure sports. Special. Thanks to bet spurts, golf and the rabbit hole. And we'll be back later on this podcast feed later this week with a lot more, a lot more PGA championship content until then. Best of luck.

with your bets this weekend, and we will see you next time. Cheers.

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