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Xander was shooting a 65. I got distracted, and I just wanted a little extra time to give you everything I had on the 3M Open. So congrats to Colin Morikawa. Not a very popular pick, but I want to give two shout-outs real quick. First to Jeff, listener of the show. He hit Morikawa. That's a hell of a hit. And then to Mark, who you know because I think he's been on the show a
three times now, probably my closest right-hand man when it comes to talking golf betting off camera, he hit Morikawa too. Of course we talked about Morikawa in depth and I said, no thanks, but you should probably give him a follow. That's golf bets 101 because he does really good work, obviously. And you will be able to catch him on this podcast all the time. We actually did an introduction to golf betting today.
podcast together a couple months ago. It's on this feed. It's actually one of the first episodes that I ever did. So I would encourage you to check that out if you hadn't already. That was a whole lot of fun. And, you know, he's a very smart guy. So we shared some really good tips if you're just starting to get into this stuff. As far as the open goes, I'll share more of my thoughts tomorrow. I've got Eric Patterson coming on. We'll do a open recap at the top.
But before we get to the 3M, I just want to say one quick thing about the course. I can't help myself. I don't want to turn into huge course killer, complainer guy, because you guys know I didn't love Torrey either. That was for completely different reasons, though. I think that's different. Torrey's fine. If the US Open is at Torrey Pines once every 8 to 10 years, it's fine. I love San Diego. This situation...
And I promise to keep it brief. The no laying up guys do a really good job, in my opinion, of discussing this stuff. So there's no need to rehash everything. This has nothing to do with Royal St. George's from an architectural standpoint. Royal St. George's is an architectural marvel. It is an incredible open venue that should be on the Rota forever. Paul Larson, though, you guys know Paul Larson from this week, the guy with the crazy hair that sets up the course.
I've got a bone to pick with him. Paul, why, why, why, why, why did you water the fairways? Paul, that was the greenest looking Lynx golf course I've ever seen. We played TPC deer run last week, Paul.
Paul sold, I made this joke on Twitter, Paul looks like he sold his last brain cell to a man he met in a public restroom named Houdini for a hit of acid in 1974. What are we doing here? And if you think that, well, it's not their fault, there was no wind, what are they supposed to do? Well, actually, some of this was under your control. They made an active decision to water these fairways and to water these greens and to
And I thought that was a huge mistake. I thought that was a huge mistake. Even if it's not windy, guess what? If this course is firm and fast, it's still going to be a pretty good test. At the halfway mark, there were over 50 players under par. I think around 45 players finished under par at the end of the tournament. Come on!
Come on. We get that every week on the PGA Tour. Every week. Just for context, this played easier than the Traveler's Championship? Come on. It's not a major. We get four of these a year where we get to see the best in the world get truly tested. I just want four weeks, okay, in a year. I don't think it's too much to ask.
You know, I made a joke about how all of the players that are playing well have also played well at the John Deere Classic. Spieth, Morikawa, Fratelli. And I think a lot of people didn't realize that the joke that I was making was that the John Deere Classic and the way that Royal St. George's is currently set up is
They require the same skill set and thus the same players are playing well at both courses. Get stupid hot with your irons and make a bunch of putts. This did not play like a links course at all. I'm surprised my picks did fine. Luckily, because this was not
the British Open that I think any of us expected. This was target golf. This was a soft golf course. This was fire at pins, hit your wedges. Who's hitting your irons the best? Who has the best proximity from 150 yards and in? I talked about this on my DFS show with Nagels where I said, here's my reasoning for playing Paul Casey. What if it's not that hard?
Because if it's not that hard, then this just turns into an iron fest. Like almost every single course we see every week on the PGA Tour. And that's what happened. All of these guys, Morikawa, Spieth, Corey Connors, Berger, Rahm, Paul Casey, Griot, Hovland, Sergio. It's not Lynx golf specialists.
It's not grinders and scramblers and open specialists. It's all the best iron players. It's all the best iron players. And Morikawa was right there for the taking. I thought there was a chance that this would happen.
I didn't think it would be this extreme. But note to self, next time the groundskeeper tells you in his pre-tournament interviews that the rough is thicker than they want, so they're going to water the fairways and greens more, so balls don't run into that all the time, maybe I should pay a little bit more attention next time.
Where was the strategy on this golf course? Where was the quirkiness? I didn't see the quirkiness and the weird bounces that everyone was talking about. It didn't exist. It wasn't there.
And I just want to say one more time, Royal St. George's when playing firm and fast is awesome. It's one of the best golf courses in the world, in my opinion. As part of my preparation, I watched all of the open films from the past decade plus. Royal St. George's is awesome when it's playing firm and fast. Okay. It's certainly one of the best on the open rota. Just watch how it played in 2011 and 2003.
I get the wind thing. This has nothing to do with the wind, but it's quirky. It's weird. All of the things that you heard about this course, the magic bean stuff, that's what it's like when it's playing firm and fast. And they didn't get rain. It was hot. They could have baked this out. And that's how weird stuff happens. And we didn't get that this week.
Guys weren't even making big numbers. They were staying in the fairways. And guess what? When these fairways are soft, those nasty bunkers, they become a whole lot smaller. When this course is playing firm and fast, those bunkers get a whole lot bigger. The no laying up guys, they tweeted this today. They were like, yeah, it feels like every single drive has somehow missed a fairway bunker all week. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That's what happens. That's, that's the point. That's what happens when we do this. Okay. It was still fun to watch. All I'm saying, my only criticism is I think the decision that they made to water these fairways, I think that was a big mistake. That's it. That's my only qualm. Okay. Three, I'm open. Let's talk three. I'm open. Um,
3M Open. This is the third edition of this tournament. It was an event on the Champions Tour for years before getting the bump up to the PGA Tour. Former winners of this event, we've only had two. This course is only, this tournament has only been around on the PGA Tour for two years.
2020, Michael Thompson won at 19 under. 2019, Matthew Wolfe won at 21 under over Bryson and Colin Morikawa. The field this week, we already had Kokrak withdraw. We already had Brandon Grace withdraw. Dustin is probably the headliner along with Louie. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe they play. We'll see.
But those are probably the two biggest guys in the field. Then you get into Finau. Patrick Reid is playing as well. So Finau, Patrick Reid, I guess. Ricky Fowler, I guess, is also in the field. Guys like Bubba and, I don't know, Keegan. Yeah, I mean, that's probably...
That's about it. Oh, Matthew Wolfe. Matthew Wolfe, of course, is back to defend his title. Gary Woodland, I guess. I forgot about Gary Woodland. So not great. I think a little bit better of better than the John Deere, but not great. I think we'll have to see whether or not DJ withdraws or not. And same with Louis. But yeah, not a great field. Let's get to the course. Let's get to the course. TPC Twin Cities.
It is a par 71 measuring 7,413 yards in Blaine, Minnesota. It was designed by Arnold Palmer in 2000. Tim Herron and Tom Lehman completed a renovation in 2018.
Other Arnold Palmer courses on tour that you may want to look at, Bay Hill, obviously, although I don't love that comp, and TPC Boston. I like that one a lot better, actually. 14 water hazards come into play on this course. The fairways are bentgrass. The greens are bentgrass. They measure 6,500 square feet on average. That's pretty large. Nothing crazy, but pretty large greens here. It has ranked as one of the easiest courses on
on tour both years over the past two years, 38 yard wide fairways. Um, those are some of the largest fairways on tour for context, Detroit golf club and mere field village with book, which both have large fairways. Those are 34 yard wide fairways on average. So three M O R TPC twin cities, even larger than that. It's a TPC course. I talk about this all the time.
But TPC courses, they feature a lot of the same elements. This course was specifically commissioned by the PGA Tour for the direct purpose of tournament play. There's a lot of water on these courses, a lot of birdie opportunities, risk reward holes, pretty gimmicky, all things considered. And these courses just produce a
Similar outcomes every single time, which is a winning score that falls somewhere between 15 under and 25 under. TPC Sawgrass is a little bit of an outlier to that. But this course reminds me a lot of TPC Louisiana, where they had the team event.
It reminds me of TPC Scottsdale a little bit. Um, I think it's a little bit easier than that. TPC Scottsdale actually has a little bit more teeth. I think TPC deer run is a good one. The one that we literally just saw, that's a, uh,
Bent Grass TPC course, a little bit shorter. TPC Craig Ranch, definitely in the same ballpark here. And then TPC Boston as well, the other TPC Arnold Palmer design that I mentioned. I think looking at players who perform well on TPC courses makes a whole lot of sense. And I can give you some of those players when I go over the stats, but...
I guess it feels like a little bit more like a Florida course. You know, there's a lot of water. Obviously, it's not Bermuda. It's not a classical layout. There are some elevation to this golf course. So the ball flies a little bit further here than we are used to. We can get into whether or not I think distance really matters here when I go over the stats.
But the par fives, they're actually kind of long and the set of par threes and par fours are pretty damn easy. Top 10 finishers are gaining over triple what they gain on the par threes and over double what they gain on the par fours.
Um, for the par five. So you really have to score on those par fives. And like I said, since they're pretty long, I think that's where some distance and, um, long iron proximity might really help some guys out here. Um, okay. So what's going to be important.
Iron play. Shocker. Shocker. Absolute shocker. Top 10 finishers here have gained an average of 4.5 strokes on approach. That is double what they have gained off the tee. It is 22 times what they have gained around the green. I'm going to say that one more time. Top 10 finishers have gained 22 times on average on
with their irons, uh, than what they have around the green. I have never seen anything like that. I know it's only two years of sample size, uh, but still, wow. Um, I guess it makes sense. Like you, Michael Thompson, he won this tournament by losing strokes off the tee, losing strokes around the green and gaining 7.4 strokes on approach and 7.3 strokes putting. So, um,
Four of the top 10 guys last year lost strokes around the green last year's leaders in around the green finished 64th miscut, 46 53rd. So I, again, small sample size, but this is probably the smallest weight on around the green play I've ever put in my model. I think Thompson gave us the formula pretty well. All of these guys, uh,
They're gaining a little bit off the tee, a ton with their irons and a fair amount with their putter. Like in 2019, you see Matthew Wolfe and Bryson at the top of the leaderboard. And we had the same thing at Rocket Mortgage, which was fantastic.
big time on putting. You think off the tee domination when you see Matthew Wolfe and Bryson at the top of leaderboard. Not the case. Matthew Wolfe gained two strokes off the tee and 9.5 strokes on approach. Bryson gained more strokes on approach than he did off the tee that week. He gained 4.3 strokes on approach and three strokes off the tee. Morikawa, who also finished second, he gained Jesus.
He gained almost 11 strokes on approach that week. So actually Morikawa and Wolf finished one, two in 2019, both gaining under one stroke putting and just going absolutely nuclear with their irons.
And I think you can do that here. Like only three of the players in the top 30 lost strokes on approach in 2019. Only two players in the top 30 lost strokes on approach in 2020. So I know I say this every week, but this is more of a pronounced iron week than we have seen recently. I think it's
Fairly straightforward, like these greens are easy to hit, but there was a strong correlation between greens and regulation gained and high finishers. What that basically just tells me is despite these greens being easy to hit,
theoretically, you are losing so much to the field if you are off with your irons. It's really, really hard to compete here. We haven't seen anyone do it yet. I know you could say that about a lot of courses, but this is one of the most pronounced differences, like I've mentioned, that I've seen. I like to look through the leaderboards and see how players got there. And
And there's always at a lot of courses, there's always like an ulterior roadmap to success where some guy just chips, chips and putts his ass off, um, to get close to the top. That hasn't happened here yet. Well, not yet. At least it's, it's all been irons. Um, and I mean, if you're not gaining a ton of strokes on approach, uh, or at least,
Pretty solid with your putter as well. We haven't seen a roadmap be accomplished yet. Now, only two years of data. So who knows? But I'm just going off what I have here. Going back to some of the proximity distances.
Didn't really look at them last week. It's a bit of a longer course. So the two ranges that are higher here than tour average that you want to look at are 200 yards plus and 175 to 200. Both are higher, like I mentioned, than tour average. I'm looking at both. You'll have wedges here too, but
not abnormally more where I felt the need to actively seek out wedge play in my model. I think strokes gain approach and a little greens and regulation gain will cover that adequately and kind of encapsulate all the approach territories that I need. I can throw in a little extra on that main range, which is basically 170 yard plus. I think that's going to be really important this week.
I mentioned I do have a little bit of a small weight on driving distance because I look at this course and know Bryson and Wolf finishing one and two. They are. It's not why they played well here was because they were super long. I mentioned it was because their irons that week were absolutely electric. But at the same time,
I think it helped because these fairways are really wide and they're really easy to hit and drivers just going to be in your hands a lot. So I do think that you can bomb away here at will. And the par fives are really long. And so I don't actually think that everyone is going to be able to reach them every day. All the par fives are over 590 yards. I mean, maybe everyone can reach them. I don't remember, but.
I know that they have proven to be really important here. And I think that you will possess a huge advantage over the field if you can get to them in two. It's a very conservatively small weight, and I would not use it as a defining factor to put me on or off a player. Shorter hitters can actually
absolutely compete here. Michael Thompson, Colin Morikawa, Cameron Tringale is not long. Alex Noren, all those guys, not necessarily long at all, but you also have your Finaus, your Wolfs, your Brysons, your Cam Davises, your Wyndham Clarks. So
Small weight on that. And then as is the case with all birdie fest opportunities gained birdies are better gained strokes, gain easy scoring conditions, love them all. I want guys that are comfortable going low that embrace it, that love themselves at birdie fast and strokes, gain ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. Um,
uh always worth looking at um although i don't think this course really plays a whole lot longer than 7400 yards especially because of the elevation if anything i think it plays a little bit shorter so not something i'm going to weigh super heavily here um where i think that if you haven't performed well on long courses you can't compete here uh and then strokes gain tpc courses
Like I mentioned, a lot of the same players, they always pop up here. My model is going to cover that because whenever I have a TPC course, I'm kind of inherently looking at birdies are better gained and opportunities gained. So it's not huge. I don't think that if somebody hasn't done well on TPC courses, it's enough to put me on or off a player. But those are kind of the main things that I think you want to look at here. So, okay, in a vacuum,
I'm pretty out if you aren't good with your irons. I'm probably going to take some form of a stand on that. So you got to be good on approach. Love some birdies. It's comfortable going low. Maybe some prior success on TBC courses. That would be great. Don't think course history matters here a ton at a place like this. But if you've had success here, great. If you haven't, not going to hold it against you. I tend to overrate.
This stuff. But I'm going to monitor...
if someone made the cut at the open. I'm not suggesting that the open was like some grueling test. I just spent 10 minutes at the top talking about how it played like a regular PGA tour course. But you know, the time difference thing again, I don't know if that will be enough to put me on or off someone. Like if somebody played well at the open and I want to play them, I'm just going to play them. But again,
that's basically it. So iron players, birdie makers in theory, this is not a difficult week. Um,
It's an easy course. So that brings the whole field basically into play. But I feel like the formula here is pretty straightforward. I think a lot of people this week will probably gravitate towards the same players, like the best ball strikers in the field. And, you know, guys like Hank Labiotta and Seamus Powers, your flavors of the week, who are just
justifiably so, playing really, really well right now. So I'm not going to try and get too cute, but I'm also going to try and dig a little bit and differentiate to find some guys that I think could work here. Early leans. Let's do it. Everyone's favorite, early leans. Oh, I just wanted to share real quick, top 10 in my model. Number one, Kokrak. I guess he withdrew. So number one, the new number one would be Griot.
Number two, Keegan. Number three, Louie. Number four, Cameron Davis. Number five, DJ. Number six, Stuart Sink. Number seven, Hank Labiotta. Number eight, Patton Kazire.
Number nine, Cameron Tringali. Number 10, Jonathan Vegas. And then I ran kind of a separate model where I just looked at who does well on birdie fests, who's a good bent grass putter, who does well on TPC courses, and who is a good ball striker on long courses to just kind of get a feel for the type of player that would fit well at this course.
Number one is Tringale. I gave Tringale a really hard time last week on my open podcast, and he ended up having a really, really good open. He was...
He was really high in the model, and I made a joke about how it's a mistake. He's a fraud. He's got something on the Fantasy National guys, and I think he finished top 20 at the Open. So I apologize, Cameron Tringale. You are right there in my models once again, and I still can't guarantee that I will play you, but
good job at the open good job um Patton Keziah number two he is pops all over the place for me here Dustin Johnson Cameron Davis Charles Howell uh Patrick Reed Jonathan Vegas Troy Mayer Ryan Moore um okay so here's what I think um Matthew Wolfe real quick I talked to some of the oak tree guys and uh
From what I've heard, Matthew Wolfe was on the course practicing all weekend at Oak Tree. He was absolutely flushing it. Shout out the Sullivans. My buddy Dan Sullivan played in the group right after Matthew Wolfe on Saturday at Oak Tree. And he said he asked his caddy why.
why Matthew Wolfe didn't play in the Open. And his caddie was like, it had nothing to do with the mental stuff, the reason why he took some time off earlier in the season. He just didn't want to deal with the COVID bullshit, according to his caddie. Now...
I don't see why the caddy would feel a need to lie to some random member that doesn't bet on golf or he's just a random member at a golf course. This is a very small private golf course in the middle of nowhere, Oklahoma. So,
According to that, Matthew Wolf is hitting the ball unbelievably right now. And he is in like a great place mentally. He was laughing, smiling, eating in the clubhouse with everyone, shooting the shit. And he just didn't want to deal with the COVID bullshit like a couple of other players. Okay. So I don't think that that is a unreasonable thing to assume that, you know, he just didn't, he didn't want to do that. He didn't want to make the trip. Although,
you know, the other side of me says, well, if his game was really that good, wouldn't he be like, fuck it. I can win this tournament. It is a major. Um, and it's kind of a shame too, because the way that the open played this year, I think it would have set up great for Matthew Wolf, uh, based on his skillset. So do with that information, what you want. Uh, I don't know if
I don't know if I'm going to be able to get there, but Wolf is interesting. I'm going to have to think about that one a little bit more. The guy that I really like, actually, there's a couple. I'm going to talk about a few guys real quick. I really like Bubba here. And, you know, he missed the cut in his only appearance here, but he lost 3.3 strokes short game in putting and gained 3.4 strokes ball strength. So he hit the ball really well here. I think this is a Bubba course here.
He does really well on classical golf courses like Riviera and Augusta, but he also does really well at the Travelers, and he does really well in Phoenix. Both of those are TPC courses that have a lot of the same tricks that...
that TPC Twin Cities does. He's been making a ton of birdies recently. He's fourth in this field in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. Number one in birdies or better gained over his last 24 rounds. The main thing with Bubba
uh even more so than the course fit he's just hitting the ball really well right now and obviously he's always going to be good off the tee uh he's been exceptionally good recently he gained over two strokes off the tee and six straight starts but the approach has really really started to come around like he gained 5.3 strokes on approach in his most recent start at the rocket mortgage that is his best approach week since october
Um, when he went on that unbelievable iron run for a couple of starts, which it looks like he might be on the precipice of again. Um, he's starting to putt well again. He's, he's doing everything well right now. He's playing good. He's playing good golf. He's made seven cuts in a row. He has four top twenties. Um,
during that time as well, including a 19th at the Travelers where he contended and a six at the Rocket Mortgage. So he's doing it right now. I don't know how popular he's going to be. He should be popular because he's playing really well right now. But I think Bubba is a very sound play. I think this is a spot where if Keegan is going to parlay a really good season into a win, this might be the place for it.
I look at Morikawa and Wolfe in 2019, and both of them were absolutely electric with their irons, and they finished 1-2, gaining under a stroke putting. I always talk about this with Keegan. That is good news for Keegan Bradley. At the Rocket Mortgage, at some of the other birdie fests,
You weren't getting that. You needed to be stronger with your putter. I think this is an exception of one of those birdie fests where it's a little bit easier to go nuts on approach and you might not have to rely on your putter as much as
as you would have had to at the John Deere, the rocket mortgage. Um, I think that's good news for Keegan. Um, he's played this course once in 2019 finished 46. It feels perfect for him. Um, he missed a cup by a stroke at the open. I don't have stats from that, but whatever. I, I think it could be a decent spot for him. Um, you know, five and a half strokes on approach at the rocket mortgage, 4.3 at the travelers. Um,
It's just he's got a bankable skill set that I can trust. And I like the narrative that I'm building. And I think this could be this. This feels like the most logical spot for Keegan to break through if he is going to win this year. I like this course for him a lot. I might go right back to Johnny Vegas.
I feel like this is a great course for him too. He missed a cut here in 2020, whatever. He wasn't playing well and he lost 3.6 strokes putting. He gained 4.9 strokes ball striking here because it's a perfect Johnny Vegas course.
He's playing really, really well. He just finished 11th at the John Deere where he gained five on approach and 3.2 putting actually his best putting week since the summer of 2020. And he's, he's not a great putter, but when he gets going, he tends to stay hot with the putter for a couple of starts there. And then it can go ice cold.
This might be the start of a nice little Johnny Vegas run here. Um, the irons have just been absolutely on fire. Um,
Off the tee has been incredible. His driver's awesome. I think he should be able to bomb away here. Third in this field in average strokes gained per round in easy scoring conditions. Six in this field in strokes gained, ball striking on courses over 7,400 yards. He's just been good. He's made 12 of 14 cuts this season. He's got two runner-up finishes both times I was on him. Yeah.
in those runner-up finishes. He's a good player. He's really talented. I don't think he's some random grinder. He's got three wins on the PGA Tour. That's a lot. There are a ton of guys in this field that can't say that, and I feel like he's knocking on the door right now, and this is a good spot for him. Doug Gimm, I like a lot. I like Doug Gimm here. He finished 18th at the 3M Open in his first start. He's
Unbelievable with his irons. Fourth in strokes gained approach. First in proximity from 175 to 200 yards. Ninth in opportunities gained and first in greens and regulation gained. Hitting the ball unbelievably well right now. And like I mentioned with Keegan, historically in a somewhat limited sample size,
This seems to be a course where you could get away with winning this tournament by just going crazy with your irons and not gaining a ton of strokes putting. He just gained almost eight strokes on approach at the John Deere. That is his best iron week ever by two and a half strokes. Has he found something with the irons and maybe even just leveled up with the irons right before our eyes? Maybe. Yeah.
Will the irons regress? Yeah, maybe that could happen too. But he's getting a whole lot better off the tee as well. So, you know, he had his best off the tee week since the Valero Texas Open in April. The putting is totally hit or miss. But again, you know, we've seen Matt Wolfe win this tournament gaining .8 strokes putting and just going crazy on approach. Can Doug Gimm do that? I think so.
Um, so that's it. Let's get out of here. Um, I'll give you a couple guys. There are a couple guys that I haven't dug into yet because I want their full Barbasol metrics, but there are a couple guys that I think are playable here. Uh, some lower guys that,
top 40 for me and DFS that I'll just run through real quickly. I'll just tell you who they are. I'm not going to give you everything on them. I've got more podcasts coming this week, a bunch of different articles, all that stuff. But I think Keith Mitchell is playable here. I liked Keith Mitchell when I dug into him. I liked what I saw with Scott Brown when I dug into him. I think Scott Brown is playable. Matthew Neesmith is playable. He was like the fantasy darling and now, you know,
I think a lot of people are off his tail, but he could be fine here with the irons. I'm okay with Neesmith here. I think Russell Knox is very playable here. Ryan Moore also is playable here. And I think Kyle Stanley...
And Scott Stallings are also guys that are playable here. I liked a lot of those guys, not a lot of them, but I like some of those guys at the John Deere. And like I said, I don't think that that's a terrible comp. Um, I think a lot of the same players and skill sets will be able to succeed at both courses, but that's it for me guys. I think, um,
Yeah, there's a couple more players that I want to dig into after we get the Barbasol stuff and the Open just ended. So...
I haven't done a ton on the guys that made the cut at the open, like, uh, a Dustin or a female or a Louie, um, or a griot, obviously who had the number one spot in my model. I suspect griot will be incredibly popular this week. Tringale as well, I assume will be incredibly popular this week. I bet Luke list will be really popular this week. Um,
Shank is playing really well. Brian Harmon, all these guys, Seamus Power, all these guys. So I have a little bit. I have a couple more guys to dig into. But the guys I liked at the top, I like Bubba. I like Keegan. I like Vegas and I like Doug Gimm.
Those are some guys I like on first glance. That's it. That's it. We're done. Okay. This show will be back Tuesday morning with Eric Patterson, Peck's,
And yeah, that's it. That's all we got. Rotoballer article up tomorrow. If you haven't already, please like, rate and review and subscribe to this podcast. Tell your friends if they like betting golf. I don't do this enough. I'm not great at self-advertising or self-promotion. I forget everything.
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