2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Preview
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This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by The Rabbit Hole on BetSportsGolf.com. This is where I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It is a very helpful resource if you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf. It has been for me at least. I credit it as a crucial piece of

in any of the success that I've been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make, it's a real D-Gen one this week for the Rocket Mortgage. Betzbert's Golf is where you want to go. And I have just been given word as well that we are running a summer promo. That's right, 50% off a monthly or weekly pass. So the promo code is INSIDEGOLF50.

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with that code insidegolf50. So take advantage of it now insidegolf50 at betsbertsgolf.com. We would love to have you as part of that community. All right, coming up on this podcast, this one is for the real ones. We're going to talk some rocket mortgage. Listen, we're kind of in the dog days of summer.

These next two weeks are rough. Rocket Mortgage and John Deere before we get into a nice little stretch with the Scottish Open and Open Championship. I understand if interest level is not that high over the next two weeks. It's a really good time to go on vacation.

It's a really good time to go outside and play golf. I've been playing a ton of golf. I'm currently in the midst of a big golf travel stretch where I'm a little bit all over the place myself. I'm going to check out some different courses almost every day in these next two weeks. But hey, I still come home at the end of a long golf day today.

and grind some rocket mortgage because I do believe that there is a very distinct edge to be found on these weeks for those that are willing to do the legwork. I almost didn't do a podcast for this one because it is pretty bleak, and I definitely will not be doing one next week for the John Deere. I will be on the road and unavailable to do that one, but I figured...

It's Sunday morning. I shot out of bed this morning, not because I was so excited to record a Rocket Mortgage podcast, but I'm going to play maybe my favorite golf course in America this afternoon. I didn't say best golf course in America, although it is one of the best two, but probably my favorite golf course in America for some sentimental reasons in there as well.

And, uh, so again, I jumped out of bed this morning and I said, well, I've already done the research. I've already written the article. Let's bang out a quick rocket mortgage pod for the OGs. Um, I think in some ways this is one of the hardest tournaments to predict on the PGA tour because, um,

It is just the most extreme version of a putting contest that I think you may see all year. But again, in some ways that could provide an interesting edge for DFS purposes. So let's dive in. 2019, this tournament started, replaced the Quicken Loans National on the schedule. And I got to say, I'm still kind of left scratching my head in terms of what the PGA Tour was trying to accomplish with this golf tournament.

I've harped on this many times in the past. I've

said this, gosh, countless times on podcasts. So forgive me if I'm repeating it myself, but there are just too many golf tournaments on the PGA tour that do not have a distinctive identity, right? And like, what do I mean by identity? When I think of golf, regular golf tournaments on the PGA tour with an identity, I think of the waste management, right? And

That is not by any means a world-class golf course, but it is an incredibly entertaining tournament with a personality, with a distinct feel to that. When you get to Waste Management Week...

you know it's a different type of week. It's going to be a little bit more rowdy. The back nine is super exciting with some pretty big high leverage holes. The players treat it differently. The fans treat it differently. That's a golf tournament that doesn't need to have some elite field to feel like a distinctive week on the PGA Tour, right? That

players and fans alike can look forward to and know that it has some meaning and

outside of its historical significance, right? Because what is history and signal historical significance look like on the PGA tour in 2024 anymore? Nothing really, right? Like who knows what it even means to win Riviera or Bay Hill or the Memorial anymore. The way that you define your career is performance in major championships, right? So what PGA tour golf tournaments should be shooting for is, uh,

How do we get fans to this tournament? How do we get great players to this tournament? How do we get butts in seats in front of televisions? And the way to do that is

to be different, separate yourself from all of the other banal golf courses and tournaments on the PGA Tour. And I don't really know what the end game is for a tournament like this. You know, Detroit is a fine city and the event seems to be decently well attended, but it is neither a sports starved city. Like golf is not

the main thing that people think about in Detroit in terms of it being a golf crazy town, right? Detroit Golf Club is...

It's a great historic Donald Ross golf course that unfortunately has completely given way to technology. It was once a quaint and challenging course with some real intrigue, but none of the character of that golf course can be realized anymore with how far the golf ball travels. So none of the angles matter on this golf course. None of the

undulations and contouring to the greens matter on this golf course because they can never get it firm enough. And I think the PGA tour's

failure to realize that this is just not a golf course that is suitable for professional golf is borderline offensive to fans, in my opinion. Like putting out, trotting out a golf course like this year after year, it's only getting easier. Last year, we've had this tournament for five years. Pretty much each year, it's gotten easier. Last year is the easiest that it's ever played. I think that record would probably be broken this year. Don't get me started on...

The PGA tour spending millions of dollars to quote unquote make money.

uh, TPC river Highlands again, quote unquote, less obsolete and challenging. Gosh, that was a ruthless waste of money. Um, and, and I cannot blame anyone who wishes to take a week off. I will not be taking a week off because again, I still think there's money to be made on weeks like this. This is my job. I still love the grind of, um, breaking down every single one of these golf tournaments from January to August. Uh,

But I will, in short, pretty much keep the podcast pretty brief. The formula here is very simple. Make a ton of putts. And this fact inherently brings a ton of randomness into play. This style of tournament can be fun on occasion. I am not necessarily, although I really like watching the Travelers yesterday afternoon when I got back from golf. I really have found that

Just in a vacuum, I don't like birdie fests at all. I find it very difficult as a golf viewer in terms of the things that I'm looking for to find intrigue in these types of tournaments where the focus is so much on who is going to make the most putts inside 15 feet and you never feel like stepping onto a golf hole like there's

real ability for a player to completely move backwards or, or eject. I, I just, that to me is,

is not the type of golf that I find super interesting. But I understand that there's a place for these types of tournaments on the PGA Tour and that not every tournament should be Memorial or Bay Hill or even Torrey Pines. I just think that we've kind of lost the plot in terms of Birdie Fest. Like, a Birdie Fest on the PGA Tour used to be 18-under, right? And now...

a standard event on that PGA Tour, a mid-scoring event on the PGA Tour is probably 15 to 18 under. And gosh, maybe to be honest, like Valhalla was 21 under. I guess I would call Valhalla a birdie fest. Valhalla is more of a mid-scoring PGA Tour tournament by today's standards. And that was one at

21 under, this is going to be higher. I think this will probably be in your 23, 24, 25 under range. And I can't say I'm surprised that many of the best PGA Tour players view this as a natural week off as well. I can't really, I know that these guys are

kind of starting to get themselves in open championship mode over the next couple of weeks. And I, I don't know if I could possibly think of a golf course that would be less indicative of the types of shots and the style of play that you're going to have overseas at Royal Troon in a couple of weeks. So I can't really blame many of the PGA tours, best players for viewing this as a natural week off as well. Rick,

Ricky Fowler last year, 24 under Nate Lashley, 25. He won this tournament as a, an alternate. He got in, I believe on a Monday. I don't even think he was in the draft Kings pricing. Um,

which displays a lot of the inherent randomness in this tournament. Then you did have Bryson win this tournament at 7-1 when he completely destroyed this golf course off the tee. We'll talk about the bomb and gouge nature of this golf course. Cam Davis, 150-1 at 18 under par in a playoff over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Neiman.

Tony Finau, 26 over par, five-stroke victory over Patrick Cantlay, Taylor Pendrith, and Cameron Young. I remember having Taylor Pendrith and Cam Young that year, and Tony just went absolutely whites out on the back nine. So, you know, it's pretty plain and simple this week. Detroit Golf Club,

simply cannot keep up with modern technology. And we will see this golf course once again, get torn to shreds. Last year, the Donald Ross design ranked 40th out of 45 courses and scoring average. It was one of the five easiest golf courses on the PGA tour and all five years that it is hosted at this event. It has played as one of the top 10 easiest golf courses on the PGA tour last year. It played even easier than in years past and,

The golf course itself is a standard classical tree-lined, bent grass, parklands course that is fairly wide open off the tee and devoid of any real hazards. The rough is generally pretty thick and lush, but the golf course is so short and there's no penalty for massive misses that players can pretty much wail away with reckless abandon and still find themselves with

a very high degree of short iron approach shots. This golf course actually has the highest percentage of approach shots in 100 yards. So there's four par fours under the,

400 yards that players are, that aren't even really layup holes. Like players are just going to hit driver on these 380 yard par fours and have 50 yards. And, and like any Donald Ross golf course, the greens still feature some tricky undulations and contouring, but they are generally so soft and receptive that elite players are not challenged. This golf course could be,

quote unquote, could be pretty cool if it played firm and fast, but the area often received some rain and tournament organizers over water the golf course anyway. That just turns into a joke. And any golf course with four par fives,

is going to provide plentiful scoring opportunities, and three of them are reachable by nearly all players in the field. Even the 630-yard fourth hole features a 28% birdie rate of the 10 par 4s. Only two of them measure over 460 yards, and for some of the best players in the world these days, a 470-yard average.

par four is still driver nine iron, um, driver pitching wedge. Uh, and four, as I mentioned, measure below 400 yards, every single hole except the 11th features over a 12% birdie rate. But unlike a golf course, such as TPC twin cities, for example, uh,

There's no real blowout potential. Only two holes feature over a 20% bogey rate, and only one hole features over a 2% double bogey rate. I remember watching Cam Davis here play the back nine. I guess this was the 2020 year that Cam Davis won, and I remember watching

cam davis play the back nine with a small lead this is kind of the the way i felt watching valhalla and he was absolutely dying to give this golf tournament away i mean he was hitting some incredibly loose shots off the tee on this golf course over the final couple of holes and as hard as cam davis tried

It was just too darn difficult to make bogeys, particularly when you hit the ball as long as him. And so these wayward drives, he would have 80 yards in with a wedge out of the rough and a pretty clean and clear angle to the green. And even, you know, he just hit it to 40 feet and just to putt.

There was absolutely zero penalization for bad shots. And that is simply the nature of this golf course under receptive conditions. Think fall hollow with even wider fairways and shorter. There are putting contests. And then there is the rocket mortgage where you can get away with murder and still shoot a good score. If you get hot from 20 feet in and for DFS purposes, you,

I actually believe that this is an incredibly conducive setup to fading chalk, in my opinion. For example, your model slash recent form might tell you that player A is at 20% in a DFS contest, is a far superior ball striker than player B at 5%.

And if player A and player B were playing Bay Hill or Muirfield Village, I would tell you, yeah, be careful pivoting on to player B because player B is likely going to get exposed from tee to green at a demanding golf course from tee to green that creates separation like Bay Hill or Muirfield Village. Yet on this golf course, player A's superior ball striking is

Just isn't going to take them as far, right? So putting is far too important a part of the equation. And we're going to see countless examples this week of inferior ball strikers catching fire on the greens and outperforming superior ball strikers. And that's why, in my opinion, I think it's a good week to fade chalk every single week because I don't know how many more examples there

of this every single golf tournament we need for DFS players to understand game theory, but particularly on a week like this, no matter what recent forum tell you, no matter what your models tell you, the difference on this golf course between the,

Player a and player B shrinks because player a does not have the ability to separate the way that player B does, uh, the way that he would on a great golf course that, you know, test you from T to green. And so no matter how much red you see on that screen with that 5% player B, um,

If there's any golf course where he's going to be able to figure it out and make a bunch of 15 footers and outperform player a, this is the venue for him to do it at. This is the golf course that is going to allow maybe more than any other golf course on the PGA tour, him to outperform player a with his putter. So while randomness can be frustrating, uh,

It can still be very profitable, these types of tournaments, for those who are willing to embrace the variance, as I like to say. So what else with the golf course? Actually, we'll do a couple more quick things on the golf course that I want to address. But first, let's take a quick break.

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Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much?

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So let's start with off the tee. Last year, Detroit Golf Club featured an average driving distance of 296.8 yards, 5.3 yards above tour average and a driving accuracy percentage of 67.9.

point zero, 8.5% above tour average with fairways measuring 35.6 yards wide. It ranked 40th out of 45 courses in strokes, came off the T difficulty in each of the last five years. It is ranked inside the top 10 easiest golf courses in off the T difficulty. So, uh,

It's not necessarily that the rough isn't thick here, but the golf course is so short and the greens are so receptive that those who miss fairways will still be able to hack wedges out of the rough with a little penalty. It features some of the highest driving distance on tour. So players are pulling driver here with reckless abandon and the fairways are

are incredibly easy to hit as well. It featured the 12th widest fairways to hit on tour and the fourth easiest fairways to hit. It ranked 37th out of 45 courses in missed fairway penalty, 21st out of 45 courses in rough penalty, 40th out of 45 courses in non-rough penalty, and 42nd out of 45 courses in fraction of missed fairways that result in a penalty stroke. So the question becomes,

Can you bomb and gouge Detroit Golf Club? How much does distance matter here? And the answer objectively is yes. I go back to a Bryson quote in 2020 where he said, I think there's a lot of bunkers that are around 290. So hopefully I'll be able to clear those and those are out of play.

This is still Bryson talking. So sorry, Mr. Ross, but you know, it is what it is. I'm trying to be the casino and give myself the best opportunity to win. Having nine iron into these par fives, it's definitely nice to be able to attack the

par five flags rather than kind of just move away from them. There's a couple holes where I can get it up close to the green and just chip it on there and make a putt. I've just got to keep hitting my driver good and getting more comfortable with the driver. And if that happens, it's going to be a fun week. So

I don't know how much more of a bomb and gouge quote that you need. But again, I think Bryson, what Bryson could do with the driver back then, what he can still do now for that matter, I think is a little bit different than what most players can do. Right. So if you actually dive into the numbers, like how much of an advantage can you really gain from being super long?

Surprisingly, statistically, it's not as much as you'd think. And if you actually go back and look at it, Bryson created way more separation when he won in 2020 with his putter than he did with his driver. And I think the reason for that, the difference between this golf course and another bomb and gouge golf course like, say, Winged Foot.

is that the fairways are so wide here and the golf course is so short that short and inaccurate drivers are not penalized, right? So like the classic golf course where distance is incredibly meaningful is the winged foot model where not only can the longest players have

you know, hack wedges out of the rough, but there needs to be a massive penalization for short players as well.

And yeah, the longest players at Detroit golf club can hack wedges out of the rough, but there isn't a penalization here for the shorter players that miss fairways as much as they're remote. Like you can't even compete at some of these longer narrow fairway golf courses like winged foot. If you're short and inaccurate, you can actually still compete at this golf course if you're short and inaccurate. And that's why distance at the end of the day is,

It's more of a luxury than a necessity. You want to really, really favor distance at the golf courses, not necessarily where distance helps. This is some good words of wisdom in terms of breaking down golf courses. You really want to favor distance.

distance at the golf courses, not necessarily again, where distance helps because distance helps at every golf course. You want to really favor distance at the golf courses where not having distance really kills you. And this is not one of those golf courses where not having distance kills you at all. Shorter and accurate players still have the opportunity to compete with Bryson. If they catch fire on the greens, like Adam had one drove the ball,

horrendously last year. Like he lost almost four strokes off the tee and still found himself in a playoff. He was short and he was not hitting fairways and he almost won the golf tournament because he had an amazing putting performance. And if you look at it last year, only nine of the top 20 gained to the field and driving distance and 10 of the top 20 gained in accuracy. So again, the fairways were so wide, there wasn't a penalty for missing that.

It really wasn't a golf course where like distance or accuracy was highly, highly correlated. Right. And in 2019, seven of the top 12 lost in driving distance. And in 2020, when Bryson and Matt Wolf finished first and second, they lost.

Kevin Kisner, Ryan Armour, Adam Hadwin, Tyrell Hatton, Troy Merritt, they all still finish top 12 while losing to the field in driving distance. And so while distance is undeniably a bonus at Detroit Golf Club, players who really struggle in this area are not really as behind the eight ball as you would think. Like at the end of the day, success at this event simply comes down to a few high leverage long iron shots on the par threes and par fives.

And of course, putting, um, each of the last year, five years, actually distance has been below average compared to other tour courses in terms of its correlation with success. So while I'd rather have a player be hyper long than hyper straight, I mean, elite accuracy here does next to nothing. Um, I'm not significantly downgrading anyone with below average distance. And, um,

If you go into approach play, it's one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA Tour, right? Like it ranked 36 out of 45 courses in approach difficulty. And each of the last five years, it is ranked as one of the easiest approach courses on tour. Last year, and this is why this is like the ultimate putting contest,

73% greens in regulation percentage. Okay. 8.5% above tour average. It ranked as the fifth easiest greens to hit on tour last year. And, you know, while there are some difficult high leverage iron shots, long iron shots, Detroit golf club, 41st out of 45 courses in approach difficulty inside 150 yards featuring some of the easiest short iron course, short iron shots on tour.

And it's really a wedges and long iron golf course. Um, the four, there are four par fours that measure under 400 yards and a par five that is not reachable by all players. So Detroit golf club features amongst the highest percentage of approach shots inside a hundred yards, a true pitch and putt. It's just really offensive that they're rolling this golf course out year after year. Um,

Due to the fact that two of the par threes measure over 200 yards and one par four measures over 475 yards and three of the par fives are reachable, players are still going to need to hit a few good long iron shots. Not that the degree of difficulty on those long iron shots is anything crazy, but that's really the formula. Take advantage of the par fives, nail the longer par threes with your long irons, and then really stick those wedges close. There are very few...

true middle iron holes on this golf course. And,

It really just completely comes down to putting like putting is both the most important aspect at Detroit golf club and the hardest aspect of Detroit golf club. Like it ranked 15th out of 45 courses and putting difficulty. So it's like one of the easiest, uh, T to green around the green golf courses on the PGA tour, but it's still a somewhat challenging putting course. There's still Donald Ross greens. That's by far the biggest defense of the golf course is that the

It's still a pretty tough golf course inside 10 feet to make putts. That's really it. So skill inside 10 to 15 feet is going to be incredibly, incredibly important this week. If I'm dumbing things down, what is the most important thing that you want to look at at Detroit Golf Club, probably outside of performance and easy scoring conditions? It is putting from 3 to 15 feet.

Okay. That's it. And these are the same Poa-Bent, Poa blend that we've seen at the Travelers last week. They kind of play more like bent grass. It's that northeastern Poa-Bent blend. You see it at Winged Foot 2, TPC River Highlands, as I just mentioned. It plays a lot more like bent grass than it does like Poa, but...

You really, really want to get the rabbit hole in a week like this because other data sites are going to be pulling you in a crazy different direction with its putting metrics. And I just can't emphasize this enough. The easiest way to create separation from the field at Detroit Golf Club is with your putter. Many think that players...

such as Bryson and Matt Wolf and Taylor Pendrith and Cameron Young and Tony Finau. You look at those names and you think, okay, this is just bomber paradise. Dominate this golf course with your driver.

Every single one of those bombers gained over three strokes putting. And on average, they gained far more with their putter than they did with their driver. You have to putt. Last year, every single player in the top 13 gained over two strokes putting. The prior year, only three players in the top 20 lost strokes putting, and every player in the top five gained over three and a half strokes putting. There has historically been

zero roadmap to contending at Detroit golf club without having at bare minimum, a good putting week. Okay. So as you can imagine, this is an interesting model to create. It's like the highest I've, I've waited a lot of different putting metrics, um, performance and easy scoring conditions, wedge play. Uh, it's an ugly one, but I actually think I've

may have a huge edge this week. So let's run through the top 20 of the model and I will discuss some of the players that I think have the best chance quickly to win this golf tournament, as wild as that may sound.

Okay, number one in my model, never thought I'd see the day, never thought I'd have to utter this on a podcast. I don't know whether this is a reflection of me or the PGA Tour, probably a little bit of both. Number one in my model this week is Maverick McNeely, who I think is going to win this golf tournament, and I'll tell you why in a second. Number two is Alex Noren. Gosh, what are we looking at? An 18-1 Alex Noren this week.

I know he's played well here. That one smells not so great to me. I think he's, you look at some of the recent ball striking stuff and he's starting to head in a little bit of the wrong direction. I think he's a decent candidate for being on the wrong side of a good run. But with that being said, I certainly understand it, right? Like it's not comparing Ricky to Alex Norin, but there's a little bit of Ricky in the sense that like, okay,

Who's a guy that's been playing really well all year and now it's time if they're going to pick off a win in a really bad field. This is kind of the one Alex Norton has been playing really, really well this year. This has been his best season by far. I suppose there are little Ricky vibes of like, OK, now if you're going to pick one off, if you're going to make good on all the good golf that you've played this season, this is the week to do it.

Number three, Taylor Pendrith, who's played great at this golf course. Love Taylor Pendrith. Number four, Tom Kim, who, depending on what happens on Sunday at the Travelers, I don't know why Tom Kim is playing this event. Tom Kim played the Canadian Open. So Tom Kim played Canada Memorial, the U.S. Open, Travelers, and now he's going to go to Detroit and...

Just be on the lookout on Monday morning. Get your bets in early. I know exactly who I'm going to fire on. Hopefully this podcast helps in terms of like fire some bets in early because I can't understand, like especially if he wins next week at the Travelers, I can't understand for the life of me why Tom Kim is playing this event. Number five, Mark Hubbard, always a model darling, always seems to disappoint. Number six, Keith Mitchell, always

Another guy that is just hitting the ball unbelievably from tee to green. Can he make enough putts to win this tournament? Number seven, Justin Lauer. Phenomenal Justin Lauer course. Number eight, my guy, Matt Wallace, your potential winner at the Rocket Mortgage. Number nine, former champion of the Rocket Mortgage, Cam Davis. Number 10, elite putter, S.H. Kim.

Number 11, Ben Griffin. Number 12, Aaron Rye. Number 13, Nate Lashley. Number 14, Sam Ryder. Number 15, Adam Shank. Number 16, Mr. 59, Cameron Young.

Number 17, Thorbjorn Olesen, who I actually love this week. Number 18, Robert McIntyre. Number 19, Nick Dunlap. And number 20, my guy Chesson Hadley. Loves himself a birdie fest. Loves himself a putting contest. Okay, so I think...

The thing that I'm looking for this week, again, to dumb it down to an elementary level is I am just absolutely not betting on a player unless they have at least shown a lead upside with the putter, right? Like you do not have any chance in hell to win this golf tournament unless you are capable of gaining like at bare minimum two and a half strokes on the green. I would tell you three, like I,

at least you got to gain three to be in contention here. I think you could finish top 10, maybe top five gaining two. So yeah,

I'm looking for great wedge players who play well in easy scoring conditions and are elite putters inside 15 feet that have that ability to spike with the flat stick. So I suppose that would be the biggest concern with Keith Mitchell. Keith Mitchell has been playing amazing golf this year. He's been hitting the ball unbelievably. This has been his best performance.

ball striking season of his career by a healthy margin particularly with his irons he has that ability to really take advantage of this golf course with his driver like Bryson he is top 10 player and distance in this field not really one performance this year in like 15 starts where he's had a really good putting week right and and you just need that at this golf course but

Maverick McNeely, number one in the model. Here's the case. Okay, here's the case for McNeely. So he's played here three times, miscut 21st eighth. Didn't play this event last year, but every single time that he's played here, he's putted really well. He likes these greens. He loves betpoa greens. He's putted well at the Travelers before. He's putted very well on Northeastern Bent before. He's just an elite putter. I actually think like,

I don't know. There are a lot of candidates for this. Taylor Montgomery is definitely in the mix, but pound for pound in this field. So I'm not... Brendan Todd's in this mix too. I'm not counting Denny or Cam Smith in this. I really think Matt McNeely is maybe the best putter in this field, pound for pound, by my numbers. He is absolutely...

electric from three to 15 feet. He makes so many five to 15 footers. And that is the name of the game on this golf course, because there are so many holes that you are going to have an opportunity to hit an approach shot to 15 feet. Like there's so many holes on this golf course where you will have a scoring club in your hands.

And the guy who makes the most 5-15 footers is generally the player that has the best opportunity to win. McNeely ranks 10th in easy scoring conditions, 13th in birdie or better percentage in easy scoring conditions. He does a great job taking advantage of par 5s.

He's played well at some of the similar golf courses that I'm looking at like TPC Craig Ranch and John Deere. He is coming off a seventh at the Canadian Open where he lost four strokes off the tee, gained 2.5 on approach, gained 4.1. That is exactly what I am looking for. The approach is trending in the right direction. He's now gained over two strokes ball striking in four straight starts.

And we know that the short game, not that that really matters here, but particularly the putting, which matters tremendously here, can get incredibly hot. So I love Matt McNeely. It is a perfect breakthrough spot for him to win. I'll briefly touch on some of the other players that I really love this week.

huge Matt Wallace guy this week Matt Wallace is playing the KLM open right now in Denmark I guess the best case against him is maybe some jet lag although those guys like Matt Wallace that hop around the DP and PGA Tour are very much used to it he's having a good performance at the KLM kind of falling back a little bit on Sunday I actually like that I don't you know I don't want any of the

I don't think you're going to, I don't know. Wallace can catch some steam. I'm spending, I'm spending a lot of time talking about guys like this and I don't know how much content there's going to be this week. It could be pretty lazy, but, um,

12th and 10th in two appearances at the rocket mortgage. He's played great at this golf course, gaining strokes in all four major categories in both of his first two appearances. He always putts. Well, he's a very sneaky, good short iron player, right? Very. He has the ability to spike on approach. He is a well above average putter. He's had a bunch of success on these types of greens in the past, but,

Um, he's actually, uh, putted great at Beth page, uh, as well, which is the same type of green grass as well. Um, takes advantage of par fives. He's got two top 12 finishes and three pin appearances here. As I mentioned, he also has a fourth at TPC Craig ranch, which is another golf course with Beck grass greens, where you actually have some more long irons, um,

Um, he has a fourth this year at that golf course 27th at the Canadian open where he gained 5.6 on approach loss, 1.3 putting the approach got way better for him. Uh, but he's just sneakily played some really good golf this year in birdie fest, particularly, um, can get hot with the putter can get hot with his wedges. He is exactly the type of player that I am looking for this week. Uh,

Matt McNeely, Matt Wallace, absolute locks on the card. A couple guys that are also under consideration. This guy may be a little bit more popular, but I really like Davis Thompson this week. I don't know if—I do have some concerns about his putter. Davis Thompson does not, like some of the other players in this field that I just mentioned, like Davis Thompson is not as great of a putter as—

Matt Wallace or Maverick McNeely, for example. But he's coming off a ninth at the U.S. Open where he gained 7.1 around the green and 2.3 putting. So he still gained a stroke in both ball striking categories, but it was a little bit of a smoke and mirror performance where he gained a bunch around the green and putting to finish top 10 at the U.S. Open still like

If you gain 7.1 around the green at Pinehurst, first of all, you're putting a lot of those. Like if you gain 7.1 around the green at Pinehurst, that tells me that not only are you a great chipper, you're also a great lag putter because a lot of those lag putts from off the green, that's going to be counted in your around the green stats.

So he does have that ability with the putter. Like he does fall in the category of a player that has had a bunch of poor putting weeks this season, but he's also had some really, really good putting weeks this season. Like he does have the ability to spike with his putter. Like I said, he gained 2.3 putting at the U S open. Um, I don't think that's going to get it done to, to win this golf tournament, but if he can get that number to

I don't know, 2.8 to 3.5. I think based on the way that he's hitting his irons right now, he is very, very live. He's got a second place finish this year, Myrtle beach. He's played well at this golf course before he is a 24th place finish here. Um,

I love Davis Thompson. Love, love, love Davis Thompson this week. Plays well on par fives, plays well in easy scoring conditions. He might be more of like a southeastern Bermuda guy. Like the Wyndham might be the real spot for Davis Thompson, but I absolutely think he's live here. And then final guy I want to mention,

Thorb, Jordan, Oleson, old Thunder Bear playing some sneaky great golf like Thorb, Jordan, Oleson sneakily has the resume and the type of game that I am looking for.

He is a really great short iron player, really good inside 125 yards, sneaky good long iron player as well. I trust him on those few crucial long iron shots on this golf course. He's also a great putter. He ranks 18th in bet, pull up putting 21st and reset putting really, really good inside 15 feet. Like one of the most trust, one of the more trustable players in this field inside 15 feet.

It's his first appearance at this golf course. I don't, this is one of the, by my numbers, one of the least predictive golf courses in terms of course history, because there are so much variance at play with the putter. Like this is not a week where I would significantly dock players for not playing this golf course before. Two years ago, five of the top seven,

had never played this golf course before and finished seventh. Like you have Colin first appearance finishing rut, you know, in a playoff the prior year can't lay and Taylor Penderith hadn't played the golf course before and they finished second. He's coming off a 27th at the Canadian open where he gained 3.9 on approach and 4.4 putting like that's, that's the formula. You, you, you tread water off the tee. You tread water around the greens and you,

you do your work on approach and with the putting, and that's the stat profile that I'm looking for this week. He has that, um, he's won this year, uh, on an easier golf course. Like I know it was overseas, but I do think he is the type of player, uh,

that has some winning pedigree in a field where that is severely lacking and has the skill set that I'm looking for. So Thunder Bear, Davis Thompson, Matt Wallace, Matt McNeely. The final guy that I want to mention is my guy Chandler Phillips. He is coming off back to back two top 12 finishes at the Canadian Open and Colonial, both on kind of bent adjacent greens. And you look at

You look at how he got to that 10th at that Canadian open, and it is the exact way that I expect him to get to the top of the leaderboard at the rocket mortgage. He gained five strokes on approach, gained five putting. That's the formula. Like you are in the mix at the rocket mortgage. If you're gaining five on approach and five with the putter, that is the exact type of profile that I'm looking for. He's contended this year. He's seen the heat of the battle.

He played well at the Valspar, almost won the Valspar 10th at the Canadian Open. As I mentioned, a 12th at Colonial. He's playing some great golf. His irons, he's gained over two on approach in three straight starts. He can get hot on the greens as well. Watch out for Chandler Phillips this week. Again, these guys that have the perfect profile that I'm looking for.

Great wedge players, elite putters, elite inside 15 feet. Can you spike with your putter? Can you spike on approach? That is the rocket mortgage. That's it, man. Matt McNeely, Matt Wallace, Chandler Phillips, Thorpe Jordan-Oleson, Davis Thompson. It's a pretty damn disgusting card that I have way too much confidence in. So if you listen to this podcast, if you found time for this podcast on a Sunday morning,

I salute you. You guys are the real ones, the OGs. Let's crush the Rocket Mortgage. I think it'll, like I said, be a lazy week for good reason. I completely understand it. It's getting beautiful out here. Good time to go outside and play golf, but

I still think there's opportunity to be had. So best of luck with your bets the rest of this weekend. Enjoy the final round of the Travelers, and we will see you back on this podcast feed tomorrow. Cheers.

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