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This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by Rumpure Sports, the best tools, projections, ownership, all of my in-depth written articles, and of course, the best community you can find at RumpureSports.com. I did not do a Sunday podcast this week. I was traveling, but I have a lot of info to share, some caddy stuff, some boots on the ground.
From a DFS perspective, this is some of the most egregious, incorrect pricing I've seen in quite some time. So to pick my brain on that, to join that community, to join the 24-7 golf chat where we are tilting, yelling, breaking things down, hanging out, having a good time, you can go to runpuresports.com, promo code ANDY for 15% off.
That is the important part. If you want to get that discount, I always say try for a week. Uh, you can get a better deal if you commit for a longer period of time, but let us prove it to you. This has been, uh, the best thing I've ever done in my career. It's brought out the best in me from a data interpretation, from a writing standpoint, from a content standpoint, from a
How can I be the best version of myself to interact and help the most people and create the strongest community? It's been a slam dunk. So rumpiersports.com, promo code Andy to get you 15% off. You can get all sports or you can just do the golf-only option at a discounted rate. And we would love to have you as part of that community. All right, coming up on this podcast, a first-time guest but somebody I have been –
chatting with quite a bit, both behind the scenes, mainly behind the scenes over at Betts Burts Golf. Andy Molitor, also the co-host of one of my favorite NFL pods and the director of content for Betts Burts. So we talk a little NFL at the top, but then mainly get into the Cognizant Classic. Like I said, I didn't get to do
a Sunday podcast. So I'm chomping at the bit with takes. We break down the whole betting board, a lot on the golf course, some rabbit hole stuff. Try not to hit you with too much advertising anymore, but of course got to tease some of this stuff. We've got cooking over there as well. So without further ado, let's bring on Andy.
All right. Andy Molitor is here. Betzpert's Golf. He's also the co-host of my favorite NFL pod. He wears a number of hats. I would get boss, collaborator, coworker now with Betzpert's, but excited and very happy and grateful to have you on the Inside Golf Podcast for the first time, my friend.
Yeah. Excited to join you. Talk. We've already called it the Honda. So I think we're just probably stick with that because cognizant doesn't exactly roll off the tongue of the same, but yeah, it's a, it's a fun stretch here. I like the Florida golf. Well, I mentioned, cause we've obviously been talking a ton off air with the whole rabbit hole, that spurts thing, which I'm sure we can get into a little bit as well, but I told you to, um,
The podcast that you do with Drew Dinsick, is that right? Drew Dinsick's the last name. Yeah. I got to message him because I want to have him come on this podcast at some point too. But I am so in the weeds with golf every single week that I have such a difficult time consuming any more golf content than all of the golf content that I have to do week to week because I am...
Now at this point up to like, I think seven shows per week and six articles. So all of the podcasts that I end up listening to are NFL and NBA. Like I cannot tell, and I don't watch any NBA until the playoffs. So I listened to so many podcasts.
I cannot tell you the amount of NFL and NBA pods I listen to every single week. That's like my entire feed. And the pod you do with Drew has quietly over the last year become like my favorite NFL pod that I do. So if anyone, I don't, this is like the worst time to plug an NFL podcast, but
But if anyone's looking for, I don't even know if you're doing content during the off season schedule, but that NFL pod that you do with Drew is like my favorite NFL pod that I discovered this year.
we kind of go off script. We just do whatever we want. We're going to do some interviews. We have some, just some random things that you can bet on that are, you know, revolve around certain people that we like to follow. We like their content. We like their Twitter that we want to do some interviews. We love doing interviews in the off season, but we'll, as you know, the draft content is kind of ramped up over the last few years, especially from the betting side, we'll be touching on the draft a lot. Um,
I'm actually going to the combine tomorrow. I'm heading down to Indy.
So I'm going to try to catch up real quick. I hate doing the whole evaluating these college players because I've never been good at it. I don't think anybody is actually really good at it, truthfully. Even some of these people that work for teams. How many times do teams miss on players and find players that aren't the best fit? So it's fun, but I'd rather spend my time trying to read the tea leaves of
who's going where and betting on it and trying to predict like this guy is going to be the best. Cause I was a big Josh Rosen guy. And I think, I think, I think that was maybe that was the turning point. That was a bit of an inflection point for like, Oh, well you're never getting a job as a scout. Are you? And I mean, it is such a crap shoot, but it's going to be fun. I'd never been down there before to, to the combine going to just,
Watch the underwear Olympics for a few days. Yeah. I was going to say is who are you most excited to see? Because for me and I haven't dove into NFL draft stuff a whole lot yet, but I'm a massive New York giants fan and we need a quarterback. So I'm, I'm more invested in how this quarterback market shakes out and
than I have been in the last... I mean, I've been out on Daniel Jones since the beginning, so I've always wanted a quarterback, but I feel like we're kind of at the point this year with them sitting at six. I'm worried that we're just going to get the worst remaining of who's ever laughed for us at six, but who are you most excited to see? I mean, the quarterback market, I feel like is right now the most exciting aspect of the NFL draft because...
I could see a scenario where like five quarterbacks, four or five quarterbacks get drafted in the top 12. Yeah. That's what's, that's the thing about the giants. They might be kind of having their hand forced into not taking someone if they don't trade up because it does look like it just goes, it just goes one, two, three, but I am kind of excited to, uh,
you know, that secondary tertiary, that whole chunk of quarterbacks is I think, you know, we've been picking apart Caleb Williams for the better part of the year. Almost the same with Drake may once Jaden Daniels transferred and he became, you know, exciting again, especially this year that started to, but like even, you know, panics and Nick,
They were on bigger stages because of where they were in the RIP Pac-12 later in the season. So they got a lot of love, and I guess McCarthy too. But the guys beyond that, Pratt, I mean, even McCarthy. I'm excited for the other quarterbacks when it comes to not only the combine, but pro days too, basically.
Because that's the thing. All the news starts coming out now like, hey, this guy's going to be an indie, but he ain't doing anything. He's just going there for interviews. He's going to go do some positional drills. That's becoming more and more common, too, especially some of these guys who've had some injuries. Like, he's not going to run the 40, which
but it is such a big business decision for these young men where they have to decide like, what's going to be best for me as far as, you know, testing and, and, you know, what should I be doing here? What should I be doing at pro days? Because man, the millions that you can make, I mean, think about what Anthony Richardson did last year. Just,
And we expected, everybody expected him to be this physical freak. And it's almost like, well, it surprised us that we were right. And suddenly, boom, his draft stock kind of popped up. So make a lot of money down in Indy. And there's always going to be that guy that is kind of hovering around the 20s. And even like, there'll be a couple of guys that are hovering around, you know, on all the mock drafts prior to the compound draft.
you know, third round, fourth round, fifth round guy. And then he's going to do something crazy at the compound and people are going to completely overreact to it. Who do you, who's your favorite? Have you developed a favorite yet of like the Cale Williams, Drake May, Jaden Daniels tier? It's almost like people, we call it talking your book. You know, when, when you make a bet on a,
on a player for an award. And then when you, you do content or you just are an existence on Twitter, suddenly like all you can do is highlight the good stuff that person's doing. And you, you kind of ignore all the bad stuff. So it's funny. You can just tell from the content that people put out about Caleb Williams, like how they feel about him, because there's the ones that make excuses for the bad play. And I mean, that was a,
I don't follow college football as much as I should, but it feels like that was a historically bad defense at times. And this guy, he's got to go put up these numbers because the defense is just giving up gobs. It's kind of a fun team to watch. So I'm kind of in on him just because of the big plays he's been able to make. And I mean, the scouts can't be all that wrong, even though I just, you know.
kind of took a dump all over him about five minutes ago. So I'm in on him as far as a prospect.
If you were the Bears, would you roll with him over fields? Yeah. I mean, just resetting that rookie contract thing is such a big deal, too, for opening up any sort of window. And just the fact that he worked with some of these coaches that have produced some high-end quarterbacks in the NFL. I mean, not just the head coach, but Cliff, too. You get so many touch points with guys who produced –
NFL quarterbacks have gone on to play at decently high levels. So I'm probably in on him just being one. I think the people that are trying to make cases for anyone else are,
Probably just trying to put contact out there to get, get the clicks. Like that's, that's what you get with some of the really early mock drafts. Like, but you know, you don't know, you know, you're just, you're just kind of throwing out your best guess. And then you throw in a couple of squirrely ones to, to make people like, Oh, look where, look where he has this guy. That's crazy. Like how you get people talking. Okay. Last quick NFL question. And then we're going to change gears to golf as a, as a biking fans. You think you think you guys are going to keep Kirk? Do you want to keep Kirk? Yeah.
It feels prudent. He's quietly a pretty consistent top-end quarterback. He's just not one of the top three guys. He's fallen in that 5-6, kind of in that range for the last few years. Coming off the injuries is a little tough, but I think maybe that helps you get a discount because with what the DAC contract is going to be and some of these other NFL high-end quarterback contracts that we're going to see over the next few years with the raised cap,
If you can get them for like $40 million, it's crazy to say like $40 million for Kirk Cousins is like a pretty decent price, which is silly. But what are your other options for a team that's going to draft where they're drafting? That's the issue. It's so tough because on one hand, you say, okay –
look what the 49ers were able to do. You're basically, if you're not going to have one of those super elite quarterbacks, if you're not going to have Mahomes or Burrow, or I guess you put Stroud and even Lamar and Josh Allen in this mix are still having a difficult time with Mahomes. If you're going to have a guy in slightly that next tier, think about the roster that you need to surround him with to even have a chance, right? And then the counterpoint to that would be,
okay, like Kirk's pretty good. If Brock party can get you to a super bowl, if you get a great roster around Kirk, Kirk can definitely get you to a super bowl. Would you rather play roulette with starting over? You know, Kirk's probably a top eight to 12 guy and,
You could surround him with an awesome roster and have a chance, or you can try and pray roulette to get an elite guy. But how often is that going to end up working out for you? It's turned out to be a pretty good offensive line. And just kind of last point on them is Flores didn't have a very good defense to work with Brian Flores, the D.C.
And he still made some pretty decent improvements over the course of the year with a real no-name defense at times. So if you get him a few more pieces, fill in a spot here or there, it's a strong enough team to compete, obviously, in the NFC, which is a little top-heavy at this point. It doesn't take that much to be like, oh, you're a top-four team in the NFC right now.
Okay. Let's change gears to golf. Here's my first golf question for you. What is the biggest story in golf this week? The bigger story in golf this week? Is it the match, which is happening right now? Is it Anthony Kim returning to...
Professional golf, competitive golf, whatever you want to call it, exhibition golf, if you want to call it that. Is it Anthony Kim making his return in Live Jetta, or is it anything that could possibly happen at the Cognizant Classic?
I'm going to hit that right back with a question. What did you think of the video? The Anthony Kim video? That was kind of weird. It was kind of, it was a little over the top. Like we saw that and it's like, what is it? It's some redemption. He got injured. He just kind of lost the, you know, lost the ambition to play after that. And it's a fun comeback story. It's a, you know, for people of our age who watched him when you're younger, like it's exciting, but man, they, they made it,
It seems like he's coming back from like a 10 year stint in prison or he died or something. It's it's, it was a little over the top. I'm still excited about that. But like we were talking about off the air, it's going to be kind of hard to watch that tournament with the, you know, the, the time difference there as well. So I'm going to watch some of that until late, I suppose, and keep up with it.
Cognizant could be, you know, it's a fun event. It's a tough course. And the field isn't as bad as I thought it might be. You know, just with the way it's surrounded by some other events and with API coming up and that's signature, correct? Yeah. We have a good three-week stretch here. We have Cognizant into API into the players. So somebody like Rory, most of these top-end guys are going to be playing three weeks in a row.
Yeah. It's nice. It's nice to see some of the bigger names that aren't just skipping this and going right into the, you know, double dipping into the huge purses that we'll see the next two weeks. But I think guys like the challenge of this course and it is a crazy difficult course. I'm surprised. I don't know. What's, what's your opinion on having a major here sometime again? I don't know. I have, they've had a Ryder cup here, right? Yeah. It was actually designed for Ryder cup. Um,
Back in 1981. And I did have a Ryder Cup. I would say, I think you get into a...
Tricky time of year. Oh, it'd be hot. Right. That's the thing. I'm kind of good on Florida. I guess you could do a PGA. I don't really think I want to go to Florida in June for a US Open. It'd be sticky. Yeah. I mean, my issue, just to take a somewhat nerdy architecture stance, is...
People get this wrong all the time and think, oh, water induces strategy. It actually does the opposite. Water does not incentivize strategic golf whatsoever. It kind of is –
the, uh, the token way that we would describe like penal architecture and target golf, right? So Honda national is Honda classic, whatever cognizant classic PGA national. This golf course is all about, Hey, if you hit it here, you're going to be fine. And if you don't hit it here, you're
You're not going to be fine. You're going to be in the water and you're going to pay a big price. Now, that style of golf has a role on the PGA Tour. That style of golf should exist on the PGA Tour, right? But part of the beauty, part of the reason why people love the Masters, part of the reason why people love –
some of these golf courses that host British Opens like St. Andrews. Part of the reason why I love the golf course like LACC for the US Open is because it induces a lot of strategy and options due to its width, right? And the creativity that a golf course like that brings out and you see it every year and the creativity that Augusta will bring out and players hitting different shots from different lies.
Honda kind of does the opposite of that. It like squeezes everybody. It jams you're really into a box and it's like, okay, if you can hit to this specific point in the fairway, then you're going to be good. But it's not, there's no question of what club you're hitting. Cause if you hit any other club than this club, you're going to be in a water hazard. Um,
The counterpoint to that is once in a while on a PGA tour, that feels very increasingly driver wedge, bomb and gouge. A golf course where there are landmines on like every turn, I think is actually pretty fun change of pace as a pure execution test.
Yeah. No, I was just kind of setting you up to see if you would just dog on Nicholas as a designer. I can. Because it is terrible. It is flat. There's not a lot of, you know, if it weren't for the water, it would be kind of an easy, obviously it's easy to say, like, take out all the water of a Florida course. But yeah, it is the water. It is the wind. And you bring up a good point that's wind.
When it is, I mean, it's the word forced in forced layup. Right. When you say forced layup, you're taking away the decision, which is this decision of what strategy you would be using. Like when everybody's laying up or everyone has to lay up on, I don't know, like, I'm just thinking of some of the holes. Like even, you know, just like...
I almost said seven, 16, 16, 16 is the four in the middle of the bear trap. Like you just, this is the shot you hit. Like here's the shot you hit. Yeah. And then you need to try to score from there or just get out of, you know, get out of life alive at that point. It is a fun ending stretch, obviously with the bear trap. And I do love a par five at the end.
Where guys who are willing to, it's fun to see a guy who knows he needs it and goes for it. But it sucks with that one a little because if the wind is in their face, it's just not reachable for the most part. Right. And again, the counterpoint to what I was saying originally is that wind is
is really fun to watch, right? Like wind induces strategy and decision-making more so than any external factor that you can think of. And typically we see a lot of wind at this golf course. Now, last year, we actually didn't as much, right? Last year was the first time that it played outside of the top 15 in difficulty in the last decade. Now looking at the early wind forecast,
It looks like we're going to get something, at least on Friday and Saturday. I got a lot of boots on the ground that are in that area that say it's been pretty dry and firm and fast. Now, the score to par is going to be lower than we have seen because they turned the 10th hole from a long par 4 into a short par 5. So you're going to see players probably shoot...
I would say last year Kirk got there at minus 14. I would say with the par five change, even with we see a little more wind, I think you'll probably get mid-teens this week. Hopefully. I would love to see more carnage, but it's a better field than years past. These guys are just so damn good these days. Yeah.
Yeah. If the wind is lesser and they give you that, I mean, they give you an extra stroke because it's my understanding. The hole isn't changed a whole lot. They added 10 yards and it changes a little bit of the character of the hole. Like it's going to emphasize power even more. So like, I'm going to, I'm going to rerun my model on the rabbit hole after, because I, the first model run through, I do on Friday night after,
after hearing this, getting a little more lay of the land with the weather and stuff, there's some things I want to tweak a little bit, but like, I will say that whole now being a par five, um,
There is a bunker that is going to be squarely in the landing area with the new back T that they use. So if you want to give like a... We're very in the weeds here. But if you want to give like a small bump to power, I think this is one specific hole where power off the T is actually going to be a lot more advantageous. Sure. I mean, it makes sense too in a spot where you could...
It almost turns it into a scoring hole.
And it's funny, I think it was like one, about one in a, not two, like 1.15 over par on average. So it's funny, you give them a full stroke and it's still been a course that played, you know, over par on average. Sure. It's still going to be, you know, like you said, there's some top golfers here that are going to put up some good scores here and there, especially if the wind is, you know, medium paced at best, but there's still going to be a lot of carnage, you know, through the middle and the lower end of the field because, you
I mean, it's just sometimes they don't come off the club the right way. And with this much water...
I mean, it's not a great course, but it's my course. It's my PGA event. That's my favorite part. That's my favorite part of the 3M. It's just watching some people hit some absolute stupid shots. Well, that's the beauty of the 3M, too. What were you doing? What were you doing? There's so much water, you guys. That's the beauty of the 3M, too, is you know that the 3M... I'm sure you're very familiar with this because it's local to you, but the 3M's the same deal. The 3M has...
one of like the strongest correlate, like it's, there's water everywhere. It's, it ranks in the top 10 and penalty strokes per round every single year. And I don't know if you've noticed this, but have you picked up on the correlation between guys who play well at the three M and guys who play well at PGA national? Like, have you picked up on the Michael Thompson thing, the Lee Hodges thing, the Johnny Vegas thing, um,
Who are some of the other guys? Lee Hodges was the one that came to mind. Champ won up there. Finau has played well up there, but it's always just been of like he's playing well during the summer because he doesn't always strike me as a guy who can play
less than aggressive at points. And that's the thing. Like Keith Mitchell is another one. Yeah. Keith is one down here. There there's quotes. It's like, Hey, par is fine. Like, this is a tough course. Like you have to know when you just have to grind it and don't be aggressive. Don't get nuts. Don't go full, you know, speed pissing off Greller and doing silly stuff. Like there's, there's a bunch of holes where it's like, if I want to win this event, I'm
I just need to get out of here with my four. Just need to move on to the next goal. And I think some of these...
Even though we say, you know, some of the decision-making, the positional golf, it's not a big part of it. You still need smart golfers as far as making their decisions. And just like tough golfers that don't really get dismayed. It's okay to make. I know I want Patrick Reed here. I know. I want my grinders. I want some of the, some of the guys that aren't available, but yeah, it is, it is smart golf. And somebody else said that too, is like, and granted the scores have been a little lower and maybe we'll be again this year, but they said like,
events like this where the winning score is 10-12 under, it feels like you're one good day away from just launching yourself up there. Whereas some of these other events we've seen, from a viewing standpoint, I like that a lot as well. Because some of these events where it's like, ah, there's a couple guys that are starting to break from the pack and the guys I'm cheering on are like eight strokes back. Just ain't happening. I guess unless you had Matsuyama that week.
Yeah. The other fun thing about this, why I think it's a good viewing event too, is because of the high ejection rate possibility, right? Like you can never really feel safe tracking your golfer, particularly, um,
When they're playing the back nine, just knowing that you have 15, 16, 17 coming up, like it's highly possible that your golfer is looking great. And then he goes five over through a three hole stretch on 15, 16, 17, 18. Did you hear that Ryan Palmer stat? Ryan Palmer's like 40 over par through the bear trap. And he just, just total masochist. He just keeps coming here every single year and putting himself through it. Yeah.
Yeah, Ron had a stat about that in his article. And I'm probably quoting it wrong. It said, here it is. I found it. I had it highlighted because it bugged me.
It says 89% of golfers that have played PGA national have a career scoring average over par on the bear trap. Yeah. And two years ago, every single player in the field had at least one bogey on those holes. That's kind of nuts. I didn't know. It's nuts. I, and I, I am a sucker for stretches of holes that are named like that. Yeah.
What's the best? I'm trying to think of the, yeah. Horrible Horseshoe is good. Horrible Horseshoe, Snake Pit. Obviously, probably Amen Corner's got the belt. Amen Corner is just, yeah, wins by default just because of where it's at. But I'm a sucker for things like that. I think more holes need names. You have to wonder why Pebble hasn't trademarked 789. That's just sitting there for them.
There's some, yeah. The Monterey mile. Yeah. Some of the unofficial ones. Yeah. All right. So let's talk about the sods board.
I see Rory at the top of the market at 7-1. We're recording this a little bit towards the tail end of the match, so we didn't get to get our eyes too much on what Rory's up to in the match, how much of an indication that would be for how he's going to perform this week at PGA National. But you have this pretty big gap after Rory, and DFS pricing reflects the same thing, where there's a bit of a stand here, where the books are basically saying it's Rory and then...
We're going to put a couple guys in the 20s, and then we're going to put a ton of guys from 30 to 50, just a grab bag of guys that I typically love to bet. And then it goes so on and so forth after that. But starting at the top, I mean, I personally have a difficult time
Stomaching some of the higher priced players from a betting standpoint, particularly Rory, I could definitely get down with some of these guys in the 20s. But on such a high variance golf course, it's like, you know.
Rory doesn't have that super high floor that Scheffler does. Rory just finished 66 out of 74 guys at Pebble Beach, right? And so if Rory has two bad holes, two blow-up holes, it is so quickly to draw dead on a 7-1 bet. And I think that's kind of...
The challenge that you enter this week is like, this is a golf course that has
So much water is so high variance. It's so easy for good golfers to eject in the DFS streets. This is a golf course where chalk has historically really struggled. So like, how do you navigate the betting board from a strategic standpoint, knowing that you're playing a golf course that induces so much more variance than the average PGA tour course?
Yeah, as silly as it sounds, I guess, because this has been the recurring theme for the year. Like, you can play some bombs here. For sure. There's plenty of guys. You know, you say, like, oh, the field is a lot better than maybe we thought it would be. Well, that's just probably giving a few guys that have a good game for this some longer odds. Like you said, all the guys in, like, that 30 to 50 range. Yeah.
It's like they saw me coming. That's such an area I love to attack every single week. So there's going to be a bunch of guys in there that I'll probably be looking at. Obviously, the whole world loves Eric Cole. Why wouldn't you? Maybe a little bit of rest for him. Yeah. He'll come up. But yeah, 30, 32, you're not going to get a great price on him. Yeah.
seen some benny on love a lot of benny i've i've bet him i'm surprised i'm looking at a book right now where he's shorter than eric cole i'm not so sure i can get there uh somebody somebody in the the further end of that range should be daniel burger and i guess wanted your opinion on him obviously it's tough it's so tough because it's not like an nba nfl where we have
I mean, how many accounts are there now that just like every time somebody pulls a hammy, they're like doing slow-mo recaps on the injury and, oh, this is going to be three to four weeks, five to six at the most, you know, with golf injuries, just,
It's kind of a lot of hearsay and stuff. Nobody ever really knows exactly how these guys are feeling, even during the tournaments. Remember when Hideki was having his back problems and somebody had found it in the Japanese newspaper that he might pull out. So I'm not super sure on how I feel, but I was happy with the performance in Phoenix is kind of where I'm at. Well, just a quick aside on this, because...
You got me thinking this literally happened last week. I get a text on one of the guys in our discord messages me and says, Hey, I'm in a group chat with some of Chris Goddard ups like buddies from high school.
Chris got her ups hooked up to an IV right now with food poisoning. I said, what are you talking about? His tea times in an hour. And he said, yeah, don't play him in showdown. He's hooked up to an IV. He, I mean, he could barely move right now. He's in the hospital. It's like, well, I'm looking on PGA tour.com. He's, he's supposed to play golf in a PGA tour tournament in an hour. What do you know? He withdraws like 45 minutes later. And it's like,
I don't know. I feel like if this was the NFL and it was game day and somebody was on an IV, like we'd know. And then all the guys that played Goddard up in showdown that day are just screwed. And, you know, I get this random tip from a guy who's in like a secondhand group chat with some of his high school buddies. And it turns out to be true. Well, who is it? The Falcons. Do you remember that? The.
The big snafu over injury reports with them where he wasn't on the Friday injury report. Now he's not going to play Sunday. And I mean, people were talking, there was people on Twitter saying that they should lose draft picks and they should be fine and stuff. We become so accustomed to being spoon fed exactly who's playing or not. Whereas golf, like you said, if you don't, if you don't know somebody who knows him, you have no idea. He might not even play. Yeah. That blows up.
I mean, depending how many lineups you play, a big chunk of yours. Yeah. You're not winning in showdown with withdrawal. So no, but, but on burger. So I've only made two bats. So today, so I've got, I've got some room. I've got some decisions to make. I'm happy to talk through it with you. And like I said, I want to tweak a couple of things on my model and rerun it. But one of the bets I did make was burger out 45 to one. And I,
The case for Berger, the reason why I bet Berger is it feels a little whiffs of Zalatoris at Riviera to me, where you have this guy coming back from injury. And like you mentioned, we don't have a ton of information or data on it. And so with both Berger and Zalatoris, I proceeded with a lot of caution, right? And then you have Zalatoris coming
play well at a golf course like Torrey Pines, which is a Zalatorris golf course. And I watched him that week at Torrey Pines and he worked very strong. And so the next coming week, he is going to what he has said is his favorite golf course on tour, a perfect Zalatorris fit and
And he was still at 55 to one. And we said, okay, you know, this is Zalator's favorite golf course on tour. I don't know if he's totally ready to win yet, but he showed us some signs of life and he's only going to get to play his favorite course once. So it's either now or never. And you're getting a big number on that.
There's whiffs of that with Berger this week, right? Where I don't know if he's totally ready, right? And it could very well end in a Zalator's fashion where he's like highly relevant and gives us a taste, but might not be ready to be the last man standing yet. But he looked really good in Phoenix. And-
This is the golf course that you want to play Berger on. The Southeastern, water-heavy, Bermuda golf courses, driving accuracy, middle irons. There's a million rabbit hole stats that you could pull up on Daniel Berger in terms of he's the number one player in the state of Florida over the last three years. He's top five in the Southeast over the last three years. He's won twice in Memphis.
which is a very highly correlated comp course that has a ton of water and is southeastern Bermuda and emphasizes accuracy off the tee and middle iron play. So I'm just kind of at the point with Berger where it's like, I don't know if he's ready to win yet, but I don't think we're going to see 45 to ones, 50 to ones on Berger for the rest of the year, potentially. And this is,
the place that you bet Berger. So whether he's ready or not, I think you could make a lot worse bets than 45 to one on him this week. Yeah. He's probably going to make my card. We look, we were looking at him a little more for one and done. Yeah. I don't, I don't think it's, I don't think it's somebody I'm going to probably use at a signature event or a major down the road, but I love them in a spot here where I can use them. Like you said, and Ryan, Ryan in his first look noon and,
um ryan's a very common first name guys but noonan uh did his first look yesterday and i think he highlighted like florida courses over the last couple years obviously like he said burger was high he highlighted water danger he highlighted just like uh less than driver courses and yeah burger's gonna pop high in any of that obviously if you look at a big enough sample before before he was missing some time so i like him a lot as one and done i like him in uh
probably a positional bet too. If I bet him outright, I'll probably have a top 20 as well because like you said, I feel like he's close, but it's going to be disappointing because we just don't have the each-way betting as much over on the seventh pond. We need to move to Europe and bet golf. Just do these eight-way, those European punters. Like, oh, we got another second place. You know how mad I get about second places? I know. I don't have that stuff. I'd love some of that positional stuff.
Well, they have Bat 365 and Bat Rivers. I don't know what's the- Oh, 365 does. I have to get down to Iowa. 365 does that. I don't know what the landscape's like in Minnesota. I'm just drawing dead completely. Thank God I have so many friends in New York and New Jersey, but California, we have nothing.
Yeah, it'll be a while. We're still non-legal too, but I'm about 20 minutes from the Iowa border. I need to get down there more. I have a really nice DraftKings account that's just never hit a golf winner. So they still love me down there. Yeah, for the most part, I am forced to lay it off with other people or use offshore sports books. Stinks because we're fighting the same battle up here. It'll be a little while before legalization hits Minnesota.
So have you made any other moves in this middle tier in terms of bets that you've made on Monday morning? We're recording this Monday evening. So your answer could be no. I've only made two, and I already mentioned one of them. I'm looking at Lowry, who's a guy I faded a little. When he first came over off of playing Crest Pond, and then I'm just a sucker for Stephen Yager.
Yeah. Like, and they're both right around 50 to one. Like I said, that's going to be kind of a wheelhouse for me this week.
another one that's going to pop high in some of those, those same stats that I just mentioned before with burger. Like if you look at, you know, Florida, if you look at some of the clubbing down courses, if you look at water danger courses, he's played well. And then Jaeger is just a guy of kind of what does Calhoun call it? Just a tax. Like eventually, like I'm just going to have to add on my card every week and wait until he finally pops one for me. Well,
Well, I was actually – because I'm close on both of those guys as well. Both of those guys are on my short list. I'm actually surprised the Jaeger number is as high as it is coming off a third in Mexico. I know it was a somewhat non-relevant third in Mexico where it never really felt like he had a chance to win. But now he's gone third Torrey Pines, third Mexico, and –
And he finished 14th at this golf course last year, gaining nine strokes, ball striking. So I would actually argue that Jaeger, I saw 45s. I think he's down to 40, even 40. I would argue that Jaeger number is pretty darn good comparatively speaking to a lot of the other guys in this range. Yeah, for sure. Like you said, the
it does get lost a little in the, in the shuffle when you have a, I call it like a Rory third. Yeah. You know, like, Hey, Rory was like second at this, uh, major. Well, it was never going to win it. Yeah. But, uh, it is the same kind of thing where we had, you know, uh, the two guys at the top kind of pulling away and yeah, it was just sitting there four strokes back the whole time. But,
But it's still, like you said, two pretty nice finishes so far and 50 to one when some of, you know, 45, I'm going to have to look, maybe I can find a 50 if I pop around enough, but 45, 50 to one is a pretty good price when you have some other guys. Like, I know we love Keith Mitchell here, but I'm not betting Keith Mitchell at like 35 when I can get Jaeger at 45.
Right. No. And even like Benny on who was 40 now, Benny on like 22 to one in some places, which is such a different Benny on conversation than 40 to one kind of kicking myself that I missed the that 40 on Benny because I actually do like him here. I have a friend that I have a friend that's randomly like very close to Benny on in the Benny on camp. He is amazing.
I don't know if he's the owner, but one of Benion's big sponsors, this guy started that company or is a co-founder of this company. And he told me before Riviera, like, Benion is flushing it, okay? And the broomstick switch that he's made with the putter is going to be a complete game changer, but he hates Poa. So, you know, I played him at Riviera like,
This guy is obviously hitting the ball incredibly well. If we can get anything like a neutral putter, he's going to be fine. Kind of what happened, right? Like he was, he hit the ball great at Riviera. I think he lost a couple on the greens, finished like T20, was a very solid, profitable DFS play for me.
Now, he's like, Benny loves Bermuda. Benny loves grainy Bermuda. So I think that there is a lot to love with Benny this week. How much I love him at 22 to 1, 28 to 1 remains to be seen. But I feel pretty comfortable that –
that on is going to have is going to hopefully play. It's hard to say that on a golf course with this much water, because there's going to be some shocking miscuts this week. I can guarantee that. But I'm, we're a pro Benny on this podcast, at least for me as of now. And we haven't talked about the greens really, but a little bit of a switcheroo here. Yeah. Bermuda, grainy Bermuda, grainy Bermuda, but
Slightly different, but yeah, Benny was great in Hawaii, if I remember. Back-to-back top five. He's like, Benny's flushing it this year. He's hitting the ball better than... He's one of the best ball strikers right now. Trying to pull it up now. Yeah, gained... I mean, obviously, his tee to green was elite at both of those, but he gained...
what, six strokes in the green combined at those two. So he's putting well. On Bermuda, right? Yeah, on Bermuda. Those are Bermuda, yeah. Especially when you look at some of the other ones where he's losing at Phoenix, he's losing at the Genesis. So, I mean, if he can be just on the level on the greens here, his ball striking, his tee to green play, if he stays out of trouble, knock on wood, he will, yeah, he's a guy I like. And like you said, the odds have plummeted.
Another one too, Russell Hanley. He's a guy I like to bet on. Checks all those Daniel Berger Southeastern Bermuda boxes. That's middle iron play driving accuracy. Yeah, it's just the numbers is kind of low for me as well.
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Um, have you going a little bit farther down? The only other bet that I made is 55, but is there anyone else you want to mention before we get into the longer shots to finish up?
Just looking at it, it's kind of my starting list before I get too deep. I haven't really dug into the longer shots as much. If you want to get a real nasty one, I have a really big number on somebody. Oh, I have a 500 to 1 bet that I have made this week, which we can get to at the end. But I'll go with...
Go ahead. I'd love to hear the 55-to-1 because I think that's kind of it for my short list in the reasonable range. Yeah, I want to talk about this 55-to-1 guy first. And then we can talk about some of the guys longer down. Because Adam Svensson at 55-to-1 has been somebody I have been riding so hard this year, every single week. And it is...
been kind of good for middling results, right? And it finally started to pay dividends for me at Revere where he finished 10th at like 6.6 K had a big top 20 on him. Huge part of my draft Kings lineups, right? But,
Every single year or every single event this year, my numbers have been so much higher on Adam Svensson than market. And they continue to be this week. He's like top five in my model. Again, he's checking a tremendous amount of boxes on these Southeastern Florida, Bermuda courses, a week driving accuracy, great middle iron player. He's got a ninth place finisher as well. He also actually a little nugget too. They used to hold the web.com.
qualifying tournament here. They're now the Corn Furry Tour finals. At this golf course, Svensson won at this golf course back in 2016. He won that Corn Furry Tour or previously the web.com Tour qualifying tournament. And he's coming off a 10th at Riviera in a much stronger field
where he gained, I believe, over eight strokes from tee to green. He finished top 10 at Riviera, losing strokes putting in a much better field on a very demanding golf course that emphasizes ball striking and particularly middle to long iron player. Now you get him back on Bermuda on a golf course he's had a lot of success at the past. I cannot say enough good things about Svensson for me this week. How was the sell?
He sold me and I did just because I thought I saw him in Ryan's
rabbit hole model that he made for, he does one live on that, that Monday show. I swore he was high on that one too. And that's, that's the one I was referencing earlier with Berger and Lowry. I kind of took what he did and built a little of my own closer, close to what Ryan did. But like you said, it was the Florida courses, what he waited, the less than driver, the water danger, the average to short and Svensson came up 10th in his model as well too. So that's,
And again, you're getting a pretty decent price on a guy. That was one. I feel like it was kind of right when he was starting to become a regular. I'd bet some top 40s, top 20s on him and were able to cash. It's always the annoying thing about that is when you place a top 40 and the guy gets sixth. It's like, oh, I should have been way more aggressive on this. I'm happy with cash, but this guy's playing really well. I know. Well, Svensson, I feel like has... I mean, I...
Like him in all markets this week, obviously. I think 55-1 is pretty interesting because you get these clearly bigger-name players sub-50 in the 30-50 range. And I don't know if Svensson...
gets talked about with the guys like Berger and Connors and Mitchell and Yeager and even Straka and even people like Bo Hosser that are right below him. But I found it pretty indicative as well that he opened at 50 because I can't imagine that I'm the only person that's seeing these things with him. And I think that number is safe too because I would still be pretty shocked if –
And Svensson, he opened low. He opened lower than I thought. And I don't think Svensson's going to get that into the 40s in this field. So I think that number is pretty – I bet him at 55-55.
It's 50, 55 everywhere there. So I think that's fair on him. Anyone else? Anyone else as we get farther down, you want to throw out there before I give you my 500 to one bet? No, I'll do my long shot. Seemed like a long shot until you kind of came over the top there standing in the lane. You dunked right over me. But and this is one for sure.
that i will place like a small bet but also top 20 top 40 tyler duncan yeah i like that 220 he's a guy who played well here go look go just cherry pick spot because he's spotty he's gonna miss a lot of cuts he's not a you know a top tier golfer he played horrible in mexico
But go pick out some of these places where he putted well. RSM. And yes, the field at the RSM is quite a bit lower, but it's Bermuda. Both the courses out there. So he gained six strokes on the greens. He got third here last year. He's played well at some of these other, you know, the courses are going to be a lot easier. Like let's not compare PGA National to Corrales Punta Cana, but, you know, similar part of the world. I think that one's actually Paspalum.
But he has played well in some of these Bermuda courses. He's played well here. And it's just a massive number for a guy who does check some of those same boxes, obviously to a lesser extent than like Shane Lowry. So I'll probably have a tickle at a huge number because I'd feel bad not betting him after I talked about him. But it's mostly going to be pay Tyler Duncan top 20.
Well, there's the, you talked about RSM, there's the Svensson RSM correlation there as well, because you've had Svensson wins and finishes top five at RSM. Duncan wins and finishes top five again at RSM this past year. And also both of them have top tens at the Honda classic.
So they're both these, I know RSM is a lot easier, but they're both these water heavy Southeastern Bermuda golf courses. And actually, if you look at like, even if you go into the Henley's and the Chris Kirk's,
Like all there's, there's even a stronger correlation because Henley and Chris Kirk have both won the Honda and the RSM as well. So I, Duncan was already on my radar. You're pushing the choir here. The only guy that I was going to add, and my friend Kyle joked, joked this to me a couple of minutes before we were doing the podcast. And I finally just said, okay, fine. You sold me. But, but,
Parker Cootie is 500 to one. Okay. Now, Parker Cootie, if you're not familiar with his game, you're welcome to say, sir, I'm not familiar with your game when it comes to Parker Cootie. But this is a guy who was a stud at Texas, hits the ball a mile, very decorated collegiate career at Texas. He is a twin brother of
Named Pearson. Now, uh, don't make this mistake. And I think a lot of DraftKings players are going to make this mistake because DraftKings actually decided to price these guys the exact same price this week. So Parker Cootie and Pearson Cootie are both 5,100, which makes zero sense to me because Parker's playing way better than Pearson right now. Like Parker was, um,
$1,000 more expensive than Pearson last week, finished E24, and Pearson finished almost DFL. I think he ended up withdrawing. And then DraftKings says, let's just make them the same price this week, which makes zero sense to me. So make sure you play Parker, not Pearson. But he has...
25th, 24th at the farmer's insurance open and the Mexico open gained over seven strokes, ball striking at Torrey pines over 4.5 on approach. That's a big boy golf course, a golf course that really emphasizes ball striking came back the next week at the Mexico open made an Eagle on the 18th hole to make the cut and then played great worked his way up the leaderboard over the weekend, gained 2.8 strokes on approach, uh,
He just shouldn't be 500 to one. And you see what happens with these guys so quickly now on the PGA tour, where it's like Jake Knapp, he's 500 to one, and then he's 200 to one, and then he's 40 to one, and then he wins. Okay. And Parker Cootie Pavone, same thing. It's like Pavone 300 to one, one good start, 150 to one, then he wins.
Parker Cootie's good. I know that Parker Cootie's good. I feel very comfortable saying that Parker Cootie's good. I don't know if this is the week where Parker Cootie being really good comes to fruition, but 500 to one is an egregious, egregious mispriced. So throw $10 on it, Andy.
I don't hate it. I'll have to play it. I'm going to just, I'm going to make sure I get the right one in my head. In my head. I'm like, all right, so this is the one who's like better right now. I had to go look it up, but yeah, a couple of nice finishes in a row. And he's a guy who won, like you said, he won at the collegiate level that I think they had a, like a team championship when he was there. I, I think he's won. Oh, what is he? What's the Canadian tour called now?
whatever whatever the hell that is ega tour canada yeah just i feel like the manitoba open he took that one down at 27 under yeah there was there's you know when you get these young players you get these articles on them and i have it up now he won i don't know what the tailor-made pg tailor-made pebble beach invitational is but that wasn't too long ago like a guy who's won
The guy's been able to play under some duress. I like that, especially in a huge number. So yeah, I could put a few bucks on him. He's the older brother. He is the older brother. Yeah. Watch now. It's going to be hilarious when Pearson kicks his ass this week. Their grandfather, I'm just on his Wikipedia page now. Their grandfather won the 1971 Masters. Charles Cootie.
You know, I, that sent me, you sent me down a rabbit hole earlier too. When I was, I love, I love, maybe this is what, this is what I waste the most time with during the week is Wikipedia pages for golfers for tournaments. Like I started to dig so hard in like the Bob Hope classic logos one day because it just sent me, it just made me laugh. But yeah,
It was the 83 Ryder Cup they had here. Yeah. And there's a person on that team who scored four points for his team that day, that week, that weekend, who made the cut in the Masters only a few years ago. It's crazy, as I'm betting on Stephen Yeager.
Maybe it's the longevity of the people that are there. Charles Cootie, the grandfather, he beats Johnny Miller and Jack Nicklaus in the 1971 Masters. It's one of only three PGA Tour wins. I guess this is like the...
it would be kind of the on hell Cabrera corollary, right. Where, you know, he wins three times and one's a U S open and one's the masters, but this guy, Charles Cuddy, their grandfather, um,
TCU, Texas guy. He wins three times. One of them's the masters. And then his grandkids are now battling it out on the PGA tour. TCU, God, you bet hoagie. God, the thing. Yeah, right. The things you learn on Wikipedia. All right, Andy, any closing thoughts before we get out of here? I'm on my, this is my third of the day. I got one more coming up after this. Mondays, Mondays, man.
No. Well, like I said, if you get a hot tick and you have some time, maybe this is when people can finally dig into some live events now that we have some
I think that's what kept me off betting them so much last year. It's like, I don't know anything about this course. I don't know anything about some of these golfers. Like it's going to be fun to actually spend a little time on that. And obviously starting to dig into some of these long shots. That's the biggest thing is that, you know, it's a short price is never due.
A short price is going to come in because that's what short prices do. But just because we haven't had a favorite win doesn't mean like, hey, you should bet Rory and you can't bet long shots. The volatility of this course is still very open to some long shots doing very well here. So definitely don't let all the long shots that have come in already deter you from looking down the board and betting your 500 to 1s.
There you go. Do you have anything to plug this week too, that you guys have got going on? I mean, I've talked extensively about the rabbit hole at this point as well. Everybody go sign up code inside golf to get you 25% off. That's a big discount. I
I don't know if we've emphasized that enough. As somebody that has been doing this now for four years and have worked with a lot of different places, have done a lot of affiliate deals in my past, I'm sure you have as well being in the industry longer than I have. 25% off on a product that is already best in the market for prices is
I don't know how long that's going to last. We're making a lot of changes behind the scenes to make this thing the best in every way possible. So I would, I would sign up now before, I mean, we're adding things to it pretty much every week. So I'd sign up now before that, that goes up.
Yeah, a little foreshadowing. There may be price increases at some point during the 2024 season because we started with a low price because we were unknown and we felt like we had to be selling on price to earn some people's trust. But we're very happy with the product. We're very happy to have you using it.
And over the next six weeks leading into the bigger tournament they have done in Georgia, mid-April, there will be several new additions to various things on the site. I don't want to give away too much on that, but I will say there's a very decent chance that what Andy said about getting signed up sooner than later is better because I'm pretty sure I'll be able to talk to my bosses and the people that run all the purse strings and grandfather prices in.
As in like sign up and stay signed up and you're not going to get hit with the price increases. We're going to reward people who were early adopters. So check it out. Like you said, inside golf promo codes, 25% off. Yeah. For an RGC product. 50 bucks off a year. That's pretty solid. 150 for the whole year. It's crazy. I really believe on that too. Just,
conceptually of like if the price goes up on something but somebody buys it with the old price i think that's a good i think that's a good business concept and role to live by as well just generally i think that's i that that one i that makes a lot of sense to me as well so i like that quite a bit so yeah check it out at betsportsgolf.com and best of luck to you in
All of you in your betting DFS, one and done, pick them contests, whatever it is you're doing this week. Yeah. Enjoy the Honda Classic. All right, Andy. Hopefully the first of many, my friend. Excited to be working with you over at Betzberts. This has been a blast. We'll do it again soon, buddy.
All right. That's it for the podcast. Special thanks to Andy. Special thanks to Rumpier Sports. Special thanks to Betts Burts Golf. You can, as I mentioned at the end of the show, go to BettsBurtsGolf.com promo code INSIDEGOLF to get 25% off.
That price is going up. We are adding a lot to the site in the next couple of weeks. So I would lock that down now. 25% off on an already market low in price. You're not going to get a better deal than that. So betsbertsgolf.com, code INSIDEGOLF. All right. Best of luck with your bets this week, and we will see you next time. Cheers.
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