2024 Byron Nelson Preview
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How I build my models where you can build your own models or just use mine, which is up there every single week. And we are running a free promo this week. So I've got a code for you that they gave me. Andy free is the code and it's good for this week. You just have to sign up before the tournament starts, but it's free for the week. So you can head on over to bets, spurts, golf.com promo code, Andy free promo.

Sign up for the week. Give the modeling a chance. This is one of the biggest reasons I've been able to have so much success in the golf world.

Betting in DFS space, I would be lost without it. And there is a ton of bad data out there. So I cannot emphasize enough how important it is to align yourself with the place actually auditing and giving you the right course conditions. That's why I aligned with who I aligned with because you go to other sites, you click the filter for

easy scoring conditions or poet putting. And then you actually look at the golf courses that are on there and it's just not accurate. It's not leading you down the right path. Plus we have stuff like miss fairway penalty, which is really the most leverageable thing that you could look at when measuring off the T performance, as well as a number of other metrics, uh, completely exclusive to the rabbit hole, like going for the green birdie or better percentage, tremendously important on, on weeks like this. So, uh,

Betzbertsgolf.com. Go sign up for the week. You got to type in code Andy free and enjoy the week on us from the gang over at Betzberts. All right, coming up on this podcast, the CJ Cup honoring Byron Nelson. Now, I think this is the worst golf course on the PGA Tour, TPC Craig Ranch. When you combine architectural integrity and variety of holes, conditions, scenery, everything

visuals, memorability of holes, and of course, most importantly, the tests that it provides for professional golfers. TPC Craig Ranch is the worst golf course on the PGA Tour. I will stand by that. I think there are a couple strong nominations that you could throw in there that I would accept as other candidates, but this is my number one draft pick. I think it's worse than TPC Deer Run. I think it's less entertaining than TPC Twin Cities. It's worse than Detroit Golf Club.

TPC Louisiana is up there, but I don't really count that one because no one really watches the Zurich. I've been watching it like a crazy person because I have a singular one really good DFS lineup. I only played five in fairness and an outright sweat. But as far as individual stroke play events, I think the tour should be ashamed of this one. And yeah,

I think we can separate the fact that it may be a good venue for sponsors, although they did lose AT&T. So who knows? It may be a convenient venue for, for tour pros, uh,

living in Dallas. It's clearly why Zalatorris is playing this event. Clearly why Spieth is playing this event. Clearly why Tom Kim is playing this event. So maybe if you have it in another Wocow that's not Dallas, you don't get those guys. Although there are about eight golf courses in Dallas, I would choose above this. And I'm sure that it does a lot for the community. I am just talking about

For fans watching on television, getting to see the best players being tested, this is about as banal, as depraved, as vapid in terms of creating a unique identity and testing professional golfers at the highest level. This is the bottom of the barrel. And with all of that being said, I'm still excited for this event. I will caveat this.

I'm not going to watch a second of this event. One of my best friends from high school is getting married on a small island in the Bahamas, and I will be there all week. I'm leaving on Tuesday morning, getting back on Sunday night, so I'll not get to watch one second of this event. And it's a whole other podcast. But Jake, I love you if you're listening. I can't wait to watch the beautiful matrimony between you and your lovely wife, who I have so much love for. But the pendulum...

has swung way too far on destination weddings. It has. It just has. These four-day welcome party, beach party, rehearsal dinner. Hey, you got to fly to Nassau and then take a ferry to Eleuthera and then take a seaplane to Harbor Island and you got to rent a golf cart because that's the only way to get around. There's no taxis. By the way, the only hotel that we offer is like $600 a night.

It's just, it's too much. It's too much. And you know, it's going to be a wonderful weekend and one that I'll, I'll probably remember for the rest of my life for a very long time. We, I went to a boarding school in Northwest Connecticut with no cell service and no social media. So the bond that I have with those friends from high school is impenetrable. You know, it's different than any other friendship I have with,

Because when you're spending your developmental years stuck in this tiny town and in the middle of nowhere with, with no cell phones, you obviously remember that experience for the rest of your life with the, the dudes that you went through that with. I mean, the girl that I put on mirrorings from that boarding school as well. So, um,

And those are some of the best four years of my life. So point being, it's going to be a great week. But I think we need a state of the union on what's going on with these destination weddings. So I won't get to watch the Byron Nelson, but I'm really excited to bet it. One week away from individual stroke play. And, you know, I've had a really good Zurich week having a six of six game.

At the Zurich is like fishing with dynamite. Unless something goes horribly wrong tomorrow, it will be another good week, potentially a great week if Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin get over the line. But the no shot tracker, the lack of juice, the TPC Louisiana of it all. I don't even care that that TPC Craig Ranch is a bad golf course. Just get me back to individual stroke play that I can track on my cell phone.

So let's talk about the golf course. We've been coming here for three years. Jason Day won last year at 16 to one. Although I remember that being as much of a surprise as it could be for a 16 to one golfer. But Jason Day won at 23 under par. And then the prior two years, KHLA won at 26 under and 25 under 170 to one and 115 to one.

The golf course, as I've mentioned, is TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. It was designed by Tom Wisecop in 2004. It is a par 71. They've made the switch to a par 71 after it being a par 72 for the first two years. How that actually affected scoring, they changed the 12th hole from a short par 5 to a long par 4 score.

Didn't really affect too much how the golf course played. Water comes into play on 13 holes. A little, a little world with our definition of, of how into play that actually comes. But the fairways are Zoysia. The rough is, is a very negligible two and a half inch Bermuda grass. And the greens are back grass measuring 6,778 square feet on average running 11.5 yards.

on the stem. So you get the rare Zoysia fairways, Bermuda rough, Beck grass greens. I think, uh, Craig ranch has gone through a bit of an identity crisis itself. Although I, I D these greens are, are wonderful. They're not undulating or interesting or well-designed by any means, but in terms of the way they roll, um, I'm glad to get some, some more back grass into the mix. I'm far more of a bat guy than a, than a Bermuda guy. Um,

And it is straight up probably the second to third easiest golf course on tour, I would say. In 2022, it played almost three strokes under par per round.

Last year, they changed a par five, as I mentioned, to a par four, and it still played two point three strokes under par. And, you know, it got easier as the week went on. It played on Sunday almost four strokes under par in round four. In year one, it ranked as the second easiest course on tour. In year two, it ranked as the third easiest course on tour. And in year three, it ranked as the fourth easiest course on tour.

And it bears a lot in common with what it reminds me a lot of Vedanta Vallarta in this way. If you remember the Mexico Open that we had, I believe at the end of February, in that the only way that TPC Craig Ranch tests pro golfers is with sheer length. And the golf course still measures over 7,400 yards.

It does feature seven par fours that measure over 450 yards. Three of the par threes measure over 200 yards. And for this reason, a whopping 35.7% of all approach shots come from over 200 yards.

But the actual degree of difficulty on these long iron shots is incredibly low. There's very little trouble off the tee on this golf course, very low miss fairway penalty. And that allows players to, to bomb away with driver with reckless abandon. Uh, and while players will have some longer clubs in the greens are large feature, very little undulation, um,

It will be largely an echo in many ways of what I was looking for at Villadanta Vallarta, which is power off the tee, long irons, and putting. And that's really it. I mean, the name of the game at TPC Craig Ranch is long irons and putting. Distance is more of a luxury than a prerequisite, but this is the definition of a driver-heavy golf course, and there's really nothing in the form of rough golf

or missed fairway penalty preventing players from from pulling driver on every hole you know due to the unsophistication of the green complexes and the homogeneity of of the strategy off the tee you know i think tpc craig ranch truly represents the worst that the pga tour has to offer in terms of shot selection and variety it's basically driver on every hole

You have one drivable par four that everybody goes for three par fives that are reachable for, for everyone. And the other holes are just a bunch of long par fours. You have the 17th hole is a short her par three that they have a stadium set up to mimic TPC Scottsdale. There are a lot of TPC Scottsdale parallels here. You know, Tom Weiskopf,

was uh the designer of both golf courses this event gets a little bit rowdy at least it's trying to it's it's generally pretty well attended in dallas and so they've attempted to create this stadium atmosphere on the short par 3 the 17th which is is really a nothing hole very uninteresting green for the type of golf hole that they are trying to make it

And, you know, it falls kind of flat to me. I think nothing can really replicate Scottsdale and the event that they bring out for Scottsdale. And maybe that's a good thing. I do commend this golf course for actually trying. But the problem with trying to manufacture entertainment on the PGA Tour is that you need an interesting setting.

And this golf course just doesn't play well on TV. There's not enough excitement around the finish. Like I said, that 17th hole is really a nothing par three. It's just 150 yard shot for guys. Maybe you're in the bunker short, right? Maybe you're on the green. Some, some will stick it to a front pin, but you know, there's really nothing about this golf course that

I think is going to create an entertaining product. That's not to say that we couldn't get a, an interesting leaderboard down the stretch, but the problem with golf courses, when you have such a high greens and regulation percentage, and it's so easy and it doesn't really separate the,

the good ball strikers from the poor Paul strikers. Like the handicap here is incredibly simple. You just select the best long iron players and putters and hope you get lucky on the green. Because like I said, with a high greens and regulation percentage that equals more putting variants. And that means it's one of the toughest tournaments on tour to predict. You just basically have,

Got to take the best long iron players and guys who spike on the greens and really hope you get lucky. But it's really about the polar opposite of the masters, which, you know, conversely allows the best ball strikers to separate due to the challenge of the T to green test. But still coming off Zurich week,

I'm fired up to roll the dice in an individual stroke play event. Been a bit of a quiet Zurich weekend, so I actually have...

Like four to five guys that I am absolutely firing on when odds drop on Monday morning. So I'm going to do a little bit on the golf course. There's really not too much to talk about on this specific golf course. I'll go a little bit more in depth in terms of, I think the things you want to be looking for on this golf course, because some people might not.

get the handicap wrong in terms of when you get a golf course that is so specified like this, when the formula here is so clear. And then I will run through my model, my rabbit hole model and the players that I really like, because I do feel pretty confident in a couple guys that I've already identified that I'll talk about in a couple of minutes here, but let's take a quick break and then we will get back to the pod.

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Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my 100th Mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I mean, honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry.

I'm sorry. I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at mid mobile.com slash save whenever you're ready. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only taxes and fees extra speeds lower above 40 gigabytes. See details. All right. So as I mentioned, the formula here is very simple. It's long irons and putting, but I do think that powerhouse,

Power off the tee helps a lot. I think that's a good ancillary skill to look at here. Driving distance at this golf course, 295.1 yards, 3.7% above tour average. Driving accuracy, 60.6%. So again, any time you get a golf course with a driving accuracy above 60% and a greens and regulation above 68%, it's going to be a lot of putting.

And it has very wide fairways. So despite the fact that players are hitting driver on every single hole, you're still going to hit a lot of fairways here. They're wide. Like I mentioned, 37.1 is wide.

up there I think it's the ninth widest fairways on the PGA tour 37th out of 45 courses and strokes gain off the tee difficulty I mean it's really a joke here because you know your golf course is problematic in terms of the test that it provides and I don't mind birdie fest I should say that every once in a while when the golf course is kind of interesting I don't mind Kapalua I don't

I don't love Kapalua as much as some others like Kapalua. I think that golf course actually does have the opportunity to be great if they did make it a little bit more challenging in some spots or, I mean, it's just hard to get golf courses super firm and fast in Hawaii. But I mean, this is, this is in a completely different league than, than Kapalua in terms of

how poorly it's going to look on, on television. It, it ranks top five easiest in every single category here, approach off the tee putting and short game. So there's not one aspect of this golf course that is,

not one of the easiest that you will find on the PGA tour. The greens are flat. It's an easy putting course short game. You don't need to look at it all here because if you're missing greens, you're, you're most likely not even remotely in contention to win this golf tournament to begin with. I wouldn't spend any time looking at short game. The fact that you have so many long irons on this golf course,

and it's still one of the easiest approach courses on the PGA tour speaks to how straightforward these long iron shots are. Uh, I mean, there's very little trouble around these screens. There's very little trouble off the tee 33rd out of 45 courses and miss fairway penalty 32nd out of 45 courses and rough penalty. Um,

And, you know, we only have a three-year data set here, but the first two years approach was far more correlated to success than off the tee. But last year, the top 10 finishers gained just as many strokes off the tee as they did on approach. And of the top 20 finishers, they actually gained...

On average, more off the tee than they did on approach, which is very surprising to me and still feels like a bit of an anomaly compared to the last two years. Because the previous year, the top seven finishers and off the tee, only one of them finished in the top 10 on the leaderboard. So, you know, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle, right? 19 last year, 19 of the top 22 finishers.

gain to the field and driving distance nine out of the top 10 gained in driving distance. But in 2022, it was far less correlated. Cagely is not a bomber of the ball. And that's why I said distance should be viewed as a luxury here. It, it absolutely helps the,

But again, with a three-year data set, it's still a bit incomplete distance in general off the T play had very little correlation to success in the first two years. But last year, the correlation shot up and that's why a three-year sample needs to be taken with a bit of a grain of salt. I think, like I said, the answer probably falls somewhere in the middle. If we just think about this logically, you

distance obviously makes a ton of sense given the fact that this golf course is wide open off the tee does not penalize Mrs. Strongly and thus the emphasis falls squarely on the second shot and what you do on the greens and speaking of the second shot this is about as high of a long iron percentage that you're going to get and

The only golf course that I found that has a higher percentage of long irons of shots from 200 yards plus, as I mentioned, Vedanta Vallarta, which I think is a wonderful handicap template for this golf course. If you're looking at play, like a lot of the guys that played well at Vedanta Vallarta, I think deserve a look here.

I think there's a great golf course for Stefan Jaeger. I don't know if Jaeger's a two win guy or if Jaeger's going to win twice in this short of a period of time. I mean, I'm incredibly high on Stefan Jaeger. That's why I, uh, bet him at the Houston open and have bet him many times this year. I just think he's really good. He is the only guy to beat Scotty Scheffler over the last month for what it's worth. Uh,

But the fact that he played well at Houston, the fact that he played well at Vedanta Viarta, that spells really well for this golf course. Patrick Rogers, Jake Knapp, you know, both those guys, Torrey Pines, Vedanta Viarta guys, um,

I think those, those are some good looks as well, because it's really just send the ball as far as you can off the tee. And you're going to have a fair amount of long irons coming into the par fives, a couple of par fours over 500 yards. Um,

A couple longer par threes as well. Three of the par threes measure over 200 yards. So while the degree of difficulty on these approach shots is very low, simply due to volume, players can gain a massive advantage with elite long iron play. If you need a tiebreaker this week on any player decision, my advice would be to roll with the better long iron player.

Right. I think if you're distilling this down to two things, right, can they get hot with the putter or can they hit their long irons? Well, I think those are really the two main things that you want to look at here. And I actually broke this down. I'm going to give you here the players that rank top.

we will say in putting back grass, putting long-term back grass, putting and long iron play. Because I, I do think at the end of the day, those are really the two most important things. I try and,

dumb these down, you know, get a lot of the, if you really want the hardcore data, you can read my articles on run pure sports with the podcast. I'm just going to try and distill it down to the few most important things that I think you really want to pay attention to on this golf course. And then talk about the players that I think are going to play well. But if we just look at those two major skill sets of back grass, putting and long iron play,

The players that rank top 30 in both. Gosh, there's only two of them. Actually, there's only three of them. There's four of them. Wow. Not the names you'd expect. The only four players in this field, and I like these guys a lot. The last name is one that surprised me a little bit. Keith Mitchell, who is a bet for me. I love Keith Mitchell this week. I think Keith Mitchell or Benny on is going to win this golf tournament. Adam Shank.

Tom Kim and Justin Suh. Justin Suh, who broke my heart at the Zurich. I really thought him and Rico Hoey could have put together a little bit of a better week down in New Orleans. But Tom Kim, Adam Shank, Justin Suh, Keith Mitchell. If you combine long iron play and back grass putting, those are the guys. One of those players absolutely is a bet for me. And I think Tom Kim might have turned the corner a little bit. I played him at the Heritage.

I liked what I saw for the most part. I don't, he's not going to be a bet for me this week, but I think he'll be a solid daily fantasy cup play, you know, sleeping in his own bed in Dallas for what it's worth. So a couple of the other things you want to look at, I mentioned going for the green birdie or better percentage. You need to be aggressive on this golf course between the three par fives,

The drivable par four, that is a stat exclusive to the rabbit hole. Birdies are better gained. Obviously, strokes gain total in easy scoring conditions. So who are the guys that raise their baseline the most when you filter out easy scoring conditions, which I like the rabbit holes definition of easy scoring conditions better than any other definition of easy scoring conditions. I can certainly tell you that. You know who the guys, the top five guys in easy scoring conditions are?

A little surprising because you'd think that a lot of these guys are great putters, and some of them are. Sungjae, this is over the last three years. Sungjae, who again, he was in a big lineup for me at the Heritage.

And the one that's so close on the $100 single entry, Sung Jae and JT were a huge part of that. So I think it's another good spot to deploy Sung Jae. I think him and Tom Kim have both kind of turned the corner. Tom Kim, as I mentioned, there Tom Kim is popping up again. Tom Hoagie, who is the number one iron player in this field, going to be interested. And the number one player in my model for what it's worth, spoiler alert, Ben Griffin.

Doug Gim, Taylor Pendrith, Stefan Jaeger, my guy Davis Thompson, Alex Noren, Patrick Rogers, Seamus Power, right? Those are your guys in easier scoring conditions. Makes sense, right? Those guys seem like they go low a lot. A lot of them are great putters or great iron players or both. But that's about it. I mean, back grasp. The only other thing that I would mention too is that

You know, KH Lee winning in back-to-back years, I think is likely to throw people on the course history set, uh,

I would disagree. I would not agree that course history here is highly relevant or predictive. TPC's Craig Ranch is one of the most strategically bland golf courses on tour, and through its three-year history, it features, along with Vedanta Vallarta, the least predictive course history on tour ever.

In 2022, four of the top 10 finishers did not play in 2021. In 2023, Austin Eckro finished runner-up on debut. CT Pan finished fourth on debut. Four of the top seven on last year's leaderboard were first-timers. Kevin Tway missed back-to-back cuts before catching fire with the flat stick and finishing 11th.

Siwoo Kim went 55th missed cut before finishing second. Jason Day before he won went missed cut 51st. So, you know, it doesn't really matter how you play here in the past. We have all of these indicators of these guys stinking here, largely because they didn't putt and then they start putting and

They played just fine. Even KH Lee came back to earth last year with a cold putter and finished 50th. So in terms of the other comp courses, I mentioned Vedanta Viarta. I think it's just a very similar skillset driver, heavy, low miss fairway penalty, wide fairways, big greens with little undulation, massive plurality of long irons. Only real defense is the potential for wind and,

TPC Deer Run, another strong comp course. DA Wybring, in fact, was a consultant for both courses. Both courses pretty wide open off the tee. Bentgrass Greens, not as many long irons and a few more elevation changes at TPC Deer Run, but both courses feature incredibly easy scoring conditions and regularity.

require elite approach play and spike putting should not come as a surprise. You know, Spieth and Vegas and Berger, Patton Kazire, Christian Bazaidenhout, Seamus Power have all been great at both courses. TPC Scottsdale a little bit because of the Tom Weiskopf connection, but that one's pretty imperfect. Scottsdale's a lot more challenging and visually intimidating off the tee with a larger penalty for inaccuracy. You know, going through hole by hole, I can certainly see the similarities in what

Wise cough was attempting to accomplish it at both tracks. And then Detroit golf club was the only other course that I identified as a worthwhile comp. It, it also features incredibly easy scoring conditions, a low miss fairway penalty and receptive bank grass greens. All right. So top 10, top 20 players in my model this week, number one,

And this makes sense given the way that he's been putting and given his iron play is Tom Hoagie, who is coming off a miscut, disappointing miscut at the Zurich with his partner, Maverick McNeely, who I also like a lot this week as well. Number two is Keith Mitchell, who is a bet for me this week. Number three is Mark Hubbard, who I also like a ton this week. Great iron player can putt again.

You know, distance is a luxury here. I'm not afraid to play shorter hitters on this golf course if they're great long iron players, which Mark Hubbard is, which Tom Hoagie is. Stefan Jaeger, I mean, Vedanta Vallarta, Memorial Park in Texas, Torrey Pines, these driver-heavy golf courses with a lot of long irons. Just play Stefan Jaeger. Number five, Christian Bazadin out. He's playing great right now.

The irons have been great. Bazadenhout can get crazy hot on the greens. He's been great on these birdie fats like the Amex. He's played well at TPC Craig Ranch before. Six, Justin Lauer, who I love as a long shot this week. He's playing well in Zurich, made the cut with, I believe, Dylan Wu, one of the Wu brothers. And Lauer is a tremendous back grass putter and has had a ton of success at

you know, these rocket mortgages, Barbasol, these back grass birdie fast. You play Justin Lauer, Jordan Spieth, number seven, probably the most perplexing golfer to me in this field. I, um, I played him at the heritage. I played him pretty heavily at the heritage. I said to myself, Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth are widely undervalued at the heritage. And one of these guys is going to pop.

JT ended up being the guy that popped and Spieth ended up being incredibly disappointed again, which is now you're starting to get to the point with Spieth where, you know, Spieth, there are going to be golf courses every year on the PGA Tour that Spieth doesn't play well at. But now we're starting to get to the golf courses that

Spieth always plays well at him not playing well at, aka the Heritage, aka the Masters. I know he finished 10th at Valero, but he's usually in the mix to win Valero every year. So I think these next—I don't think he has a shot in hell at Valhalla. He may have a shot at Pinehurst. But Colonial, this event, it's going to be really fascinating to watch where Spieth is at. I think—

The deterioration of Jordan Spieth from a superstar to, you know, shout out Andy from the fried egg and shotgun start for coining the term, but the deterioration for, for Spieth being, uh,

you know, on pace, you know, three majors before the age of 25 to, to really being just a guy. I mean, whatever you want to say about Rory, the guy hasn't left the top 10 in the world for over a decade. Rory's not just a guy. He's a highly relevant golfer. Even if he disappoints in the biggest moments, Spieth really is just a guy. And when he becomes just a guy, if he starts to become just a guy at these golf courses too, in Texas, he's,

I don't know. I think he's really going to pop one of these weeks, but I'm just fascinated to see where the ownership and such comes in at because I watched him pretty, I tracked him pretty closely at the heritage and, and that was not it. He was really all over the place. And I worry about him a little bit. Like I actually think right now, this is going to sound odd, but I actually think right now, if Jordan Spieth is going to play well, he's going to play well on the,

I think a harder golf course where you can scramble because what Jordan Spieth is doing right now, and he did this at the heritage and the heritage played easier this year. So it was not the right way to play the heritage, but Spieth is still really good at recovery shots and getting out of trouble and making easy holes hard and hard holes easy. But on a golf course where it's just like,

Long irons. It's all out in front of you that the guys that just hit every fairway and green and get lucky on the greens and just score and go super low and shoot 61, 62. I think, you know, speed is just going to make some miraculous pars on this golf course when, when everyone's making birdie. And I, I,

I don't know. I'll play anybody's particularly great, great talented players at low ownership, but don't really know what to do with speed these days. I avoided at the masters, but I gave it a real, a real shot at heritage and wasn't great. Adam Scott, number eight. I really like Adam Scott on this golf course. I don't know. Is Adam Scott done winning? I've kind of stopped betting him over. I used to bet him a lot. I kind of stopped betting him over the last year and a half, but

I think if Scott's going to win again, it's going to be on a golf course like this, kind of like the Jason Day corollary, right? Where nobody really thought that this was the right Jason Day golf course because when Jason Day was great, he was winning at golf courses like Whistling Straits, but Jason Day was playing good. And so in an easy field, he just ended up winning a random birdie fest. Could I see...

Adam Scott doing a similar thing, just picking off one more in an event where, you know, the best players in this field are Jordan Spieth and Will Zalatouris. Jordan Spieth, obviously a lot of questions, as I mentioned around this game. I don't like this golf course for Will Zalatouris. I don't think he's going to be able to make enough putts to win.

I've got some interest in Adam Scott. Number nine, Peter quest. That's a bet. Um, said this to multiple group chats. You got to bet Peter quest this week. I'll break down quickly why you have to bet Peter quest this week. You got to bet Peter quest this week. Tom Kim, number 10, again, mentioned a lot of reasons why I like Tom Kim here, Alex Noren, uh,

Taylor Pendrith, Detroit Golf Club, Bomber, Beckgrass. Taylor Pendrith makes a ton of sense. Nate Lashley, again, Detroit Golf Club, Long Irons. Love Nate Lashley here. Benny Ahn, I love this spot for Benny Ahn. You know, that was the one of the things I talked about this to some of the RPS subs in some of those shows, but when I watch Benny Ahn at the Masters,

I gained a real respect based on the eye test for Benny on Benny on both Benny on his ball flight off. The T is pretty fucking majestic. Like when you watch Benny on drive the ball, his ball flights, like Rory, like Benny on hits a towering high draw. And I didn't play him at, at heritage. Cause that's like the one golf course where a towering high draw doesn't work. Um,

But after what I saw at the Masters, I walked away and I have a friend in L.A. that works with Benny and is quite close to Benny. He's been consistently telling me he's close, he's close, he's close, he's close, he's close. I'm going to bet Benny this week. He can whale away off the tee. He's hitting his irons really well right now.

I have major concerns about him making enough putts on this golf course. And if you want to say no Benny for me, based on the fact that I don't think he can make enough putts, I hear you. I think that's a, that's a fine argument, but keep in mind, even with a bulky, bulky putter, uh,

He's top five in this field and birdies are better gained and he finished top five at century shot 25 under a century. So, you know, if he can shoot 25 under a century and finish top five, I think he can do it here as well. Very similar style of golf course. 15 Charlie Hoffman.

who popped up out of the blue at Corrales, 16, Aaron Rye, 17, Maverick McNeely. I like Mav a lot. 18, Jonathan Vegas, great Jonathan Vegas, golf course, 19, Will Zalatoris. Of course he can play well here. He's a great long iron player, but I don't love it. I also just speaking to his caddy. I, I,

I don't really understand why he was playing this week outside of the fact that he lives in Dallas, which don't get me wrong is a perfectly good reason to, to play an event, get more tournament reps. But I don't know if Zalator's needs more tournament reps ahead of like he clearly the one thing that was clear to me after having a couple of conversations with this caddy is like, it is majors or bust for him. And this is not,

Prepare. Well, actually kind of, I, you could argue it is preparing you for Valhalla a little bit in terms of the long irons and driver, but the guy is going masters heritage Zurich Byron. And then is he going to take quail off? I mean, that's a lot of money elevated event. Yeah.

So Zalator's, is that the only guy in golf that's playing every single week in between the masters and the, and the PGA? I just, I don't know. And then 20 Kevin you. So that's the top 20 of my model. I alluded to some of the guys I like, and there's about four to five guys that I love that are, are absolutely going to be bets for me on Monday morning. So let's talk about them. First guy that I want to talk about is let's see.

Let's go Keith Mitchell first because actually let's go. Yeah, let's go Keith Mitchell first. So 26 and 76 and two appearances here. Not great.

But he hit the ball okay and putted pretty well the year that he finished 26. I think the big thing with Mitchell this year is that he's developed into a great long iron player. So this year, Mitchell is the only guy in this entire field, top five off the tee, top five in approach, top 25 proximity, 200 yards plus. And he's actually a great back grass putter too. So Mitchell was the proverbial driver putter guy, right?

which works on this golf course, right? And, you know, don't get me wrong. Driver putter is a great skill set on this golf course, although I would prefer long irons putter on this golf course. And Mitchell has always been a good back grass putter. He's had some great performances on back grass over the year. But the fact that Mitchell has developed into one of the best long iron players in this field while maintaining a good

putting baseline and still being able to bomb the ball off the tee. I mean, the one thing that Mitchell has been terrible at this year is around the green play. If there's one golf course where you don't need around the green play at all, it's this one. I has an incredible spot for Mitchell, you know, seventh, seventh John Deere in the past ninth Amex 10th at the wise Phoenix open wise cough CJ cup in Vegas, which is another bomber heavy spot.

golf course a little wide open off the tee low miss fairway penalty hit a bunch of greens and make some putts I love Keith Mitchell I did not like what I saw at the Valspar in terms of him choking that one away so Keith Mitchell may just be a total loser when he gets into the mix and contention but he has won the Honda before and I just think

This addition of long iron play as a skill for him is going to prove tremendous dividends for him this year. I talked about prior to the season, how I thought it was going to, I always think it's going to be a big year for Keith Mitchell, but I think the addition of the long irons is going to prove map, prove massive dividends for him this year. And I think there's a perfect golf course for him. So Keith Mitchell, definitely on the card. Next guy I want to talk about Benny on who, you know, I mentioned, uh,

I was tremendously impressed by what I saw from him at Augusta. His driver is an absolute weapon. Fourth in driving distance. Benion bombs the ball, hits the ball high. Great approach player. Solid long iron player. Makes a ton of birdies. First in this field of the last 50 rounds in birdies.

Good and easy scoring conditions despite the putter coming and going. And that's really it. I think this is a perfect golf course for him if he can just make enough putts, which write that on my tombstone with these golfers that I seem to select every week. But he finished 14th here already in his one appearance. He gained strokes in all three tee to green categories except putting.

Honestly, that feels like a very likely outcome for Benny on this week, gaining across the board T to green and losing putting. But I think the upside is so strong with the ball striking right now. I mean, it was disastrous putting in short game and heritage lost 4.1 around the green 7.5 putting a lot of that was in a final round where it seemed like he kind of just gave up.

But, you know, he still hit the ball great. And that was not a good golf course for him. I think that golf course created major limitations for him off the tee. And, you know, you saw what he did at Augusta. You saw what he did at Kapalua. And this is Augusta Kapalua in terms of send the ball off the tee.

Um, so, you know, Jason day still won this event gaining 2.5 putting. Um, so if Benny can get to two strokes putting, I think there's a very high likelihood he's in the mix to win this event. The other guy that I want to talk about, um, I'll mention two more guys real quick is Maverick McNeely.

And Maverick McNeely is another great driver putter guy. The irons worry me a little bit. McNeely is not the iron player that Benny on is. He is not the iron player that Keith Mitchell is, but yeah,

He has been hitting his irons better this year. In his last stroke play event, he gained 1.6 on approach at the Valero. He's driving the ball great right now. He is a tremendous bent grass putter. He's had a lot of sneaky success in Texas, actually. He's played well at Memorial Park. He's

Pebble is a very low missed fairway golf course where it's just about irons and putting to easy scoring condition. Sixth at the wise cop design Phoenix open eighth at the rocket mortgage, bank grass, birdie fest, 10th at the Shriners bank grass, birdie fest 13th at VD on to Viarto. Again, wide open off the T low miss fairway penalty, irons and putting. Yeah.

If he can finish top 15 at all those golf courses like Rocket Mortgage, Shriners, and Vedanta Vallarta, it's a good spot for Maverick McNeely. I think with every single golfer I've—and this is what you're going to get in a tournament where the strength of field is so low and there's no truly elite golfers—

Like if Maverick McNeely can just gain a stroke on approach, I think he's right there. If Benny on can just gain a stroke putting, I think he's right there. If Keith Mitchell cannot lose five strokes around the green, I think he's there. Um, but you're just looking to find guys that give you a chance because you

The guy who wins this tournament, it's generally going to be a lot of putting and you're going to get a lot of randos up there. Now, not a bit, but the guy that I think is the best bet that I have seen in quite a long time. I'm saying that without knowing what his number is, but I can't imagine he will be under 100 to 1. I mean, he should be.

I don't know, maybe 150. We'll see on this guy. Maybe who knows? I don't know what the market thinks of him. Maybe he's 300 to one. Maybe he's a hundred to one Peter quest. Um, I've been on this block before. I'm a huge quest guy, Kyle, Brian, all huge quest guys, just like we were huge Jaeger guys. This guy is Stefan Jaeger. Okay. And he finished 14th here. Um,

Gaining 6.3 off the tee and 4.9 putting. So one appearance at TPC Craig Ranch finished 14th. Peter Quest, probably the longest driver of the ball in this entire field. Okay. Peter Quest absolutely sends the golf ball off the tee. Him and Benny on are right there. Great long iron player. Sixth in proximity, 200 yards plus.

back grass putting, what do you know? Limited sample size is two best putting performances have come on back grass. Ninth and easy scoring condition. Seventh and birdie or better gained. He racks it up. He just loves to make birdies. He loves to bomb the ball off the tee. And you look at his best finishes. It's a fourth at the rocket mortgage, back grass, birdie fest, low miss fairway penalty. Ninth at the Corrales.

Bomb it off the tee. Long irons. Low miss fairway penalty. Tenth at the Valero.

Long iron 17th at the John Deere bedgrass birdie fest. Okay. And he's coming off a ninth at the Corrales. Uh, and prior to that, he finished 10th at the Valero Texas open where he gained 2.6 off the T 0.7 on approach neutral around the green and gain 3.9 putting. And I think the reason why Peter quest is a lot like Jaeger is the fact that he is a good putter. Um, and you know, like you,

Jaeger was able to end up finally winning in Houston because he had that ability to get hot with the putter and quest is a good putter as well, particularly in best grass. So he's not just a, a bomber long iron player that can't put quest can actually heat up on the greens. Now he's played a lot on the corn fairy tour this year and he hasn't played well. Um,

But he randomly got the call up at the Valero, finished 10th after missing a bunch of cuts on the Corn Fairy Tour, and then followed it up with a 9th at the Corrales. So I don't know if he's in a situation where he's just...

Gotta keep finishing top 10 to stay playing on the PGA tour, but that serves him well because he, he he's played way better on the PGA tour against tougher competition that he has on the corn fairy tour this year. Um, ninth and 10th and his last two appearances, Corral, Corral, Corral, and the Valero Texas open. And,

He might be the longest player in this entire field. He's a really good putter. He raises his baseline in birdie fast. Best finish on the PGA Tour is a fourth at the Rocket Mortgage. Great long iron player, and he's playing great golf at the moment. So I don't know how that one can go wrong, other than the fact he's Peter Quest. But the guy makes too much sense. I think you've got to bet it. I think you've got to bet it if you're a podcast listener. Probably top 10. I don't think...

is Peter quest going to win and crazier things have certainly happened. I don't think he's like dramatically different from Jake Knapp where, you know, Hey, where'd this Jake Knapp kid come from? And then Jake Knapp has the same type of Peter quest. We all said, I just think, um, the guys that can hit the ball a long way on the PGA tour right now and get hot with the putter. That is slowly what the PGA tour is being reduced to. You know, that's why, uh,

I, you know, we like guys like Jake Knapp is a great PGA tour golfer.

Peter Quest has that skill set, so I'm buying. I'm just buying those guys on the PGA Tour going forward because I think the strategy and homogeneity of Test is it's either a major championship and it's going to be guys like Scotty Scheffler, right, who are great ball strikers and just get the ball in the hole, have unbelievable short games, and

on these regular PGA tour events, you know, outside of really Harbor town is one of the last of a dying breed, you know, these guys that possess the skillset and this week you will see it in spades. This is why I also like Patrick Rogers a lot this week. Um, but these Vedanta Viarta Memorial park, uh,

Torrey Pines, John Deere, Rocket Mortgage, you know, back grass, low miss fairway penalty, driver heavy, long irons. That's it. That's it. Hubbard, too. I wanted to mention he's playing pretty well in the team event right now.

Kind of putting Ryan Brehm on his back. And he's a tremendous long iron player. And you look at some of his finishes. Runner-up Houston, 6th John Deere, 9th Colonial, 9th Phoenix. Played a lot of good golf in Texas. He's been solid at this golf course in the past. And he is just the long irons in putting.

uh, version of this, right? So Hubbard is the, if he can just be neutral off the tee and not get himself too far behind the eight ball off the tee, if we can just get a neutral off the tee performance from Hubbard, I think the, the long irons and the potting is, is going to be strong enough for, for Hubbard to find his way into the mix. That is about all I can do on, uh, the CJ cup honoring Byron Nelson.

We'll not be doing an individual podcast next week, unfortunately, for the Wells Fargo. As I mentioned, I do have that wedding scheduled.

But coming up right around the pipe Valhalla I've already dug pretty deep into Valhalla I think that golf course has a very specific skill set and formula the the caddy that I played with at stream song a couple weeks ago he's a caddy at Valhalla he's a Kentucky guy would probably get him on the pot to talk more about Valhalla we were talking we've been talking about it a bunch.

It's going to be an interesting one. I'm feeling pretty good about my Bryson ticket, but that one's coming up right around the corner. And we will be back on this podcast feed. We'll do another betting preview on this podcast feed for Byron Nelson. We'll talk some more Byron Nelson on Monday, but no quail hollow the following week, but you can find all of my stuff on rumpuresports.com this week as always.

One last reminder as well. The rabbit hole is free this week. So, you know, if you just want to copy and paste my model, use my model. It's been working out incredibly well. This is by far the best DFS season that I've ever had with an ROI hovering above 60% in DFS this year. Obviously, betting has been great. They're not quite the more like a 30% ROI in betting, but it's been the best golf year I've ever had. And so if you just want to follow DFS,

the numbers with me, my breakdown of the stuff, head on over to BettsBertsGolf.com.

free Andy. Actually, let me double check that I got that right. It might be Andy free. Yeah, it's Andy free. Make sure, make sure you type in Andy free, not free Andy, free Andy from these destination weddings maybe, but Andy free is the code to get you on over at bats, spurts, golf.com. It's a completely free week. Just type in Andy free in the coupon code section. When you sign up,

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