Chapters
Shownotes Transcript
We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.
Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the
better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash blue wire.
Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed.
This episode of Inside Golf Podcast is brought to you by The Rabbit Hole on BetsBurstGolf.com. This is where I make my models. This is where I go to aggregate and accumulate all my data. It is a very helpful resource if you are serious about betting and playing DFS golf. It has been for me at least. I credit it as a
crucial piece in any of the success that I've been able to have. So if you want full access to the model that I make, Betzbert's golf is where you want to go. And as always, the discount that you want is inside golf, inside golf. Uh, my model for the open championship is in there. Uh, and the edge that we get this week from all of the unique data filters that we have on the rabbit hole, um, I think is, uh,
I think it's one of the biggest ones we'll see all season, right? We're the only data site with actual data from the Scottish Open. We're the only data site with a true links golf filter. We're the only data site with a heavily curated and correct wind filter. We are the only data site that actually has data.
putting strokes gain data from some of these fescue grass courses. So the edge is as important as ever. Once we get to open championship season, this tool is absolutely essential to have if you are serious about making money in golf betting and DFS. So betsportsgolf.com code inside golf for a whopping 25% off discount. All right, I'm recording this
On a Sunday morning, 10 a.m. Eastern time, Alcaraz just won the first set 6-2. The leaders at the Scottish Open tee off in about 25-30 minutes. I wanted to wait to record my Open Championship preview as long as possible to buy myself enough time to figure out who the hell I'm going to bet this week. And I do have a much clearer idea of where I'm going next.
As I sit here recording this on Sunday morning versus Friday morning, when I recorded the course preview podcast with Steve Bamford, which was excellent. You can check that out on the feed as well. If you want some more detailed thoughts on what I think about the golf course in terms of Royal Troon and the specific type of skill set that we should be looking for this week. But, you know, I still got to be transparent. I haven't really made a real judgment call yet.
on where I'm going at the top. I have a really good sense of the players that I like farther down the board, um, as some long shot plays, but in terms of my guy to win this tournament, I'm really excited to talk through it. Uh, and the one thing I could say definitively is that I'm not betting Scheffler. I'm not betting Rory. Although I gotta say, I've been kind of surprised. There's a lot more Rory love this week, uh,
than I honestly expected to see, which is interesting. We can talk about the pros and cons of Rory's actual golf course fit here. Obviously, it's a very good chance to contend, but I've been able to find some real counter arguments based on the actual course fit that would make me tell you that
This is not like St. Andrews or Quail Hollow or even Pinehurst for him where his specific skill set is going to necessarily be heavily accentuated. Like,
He is going to need to do some things very well at Royal Troon that he does not always do very well. He is going to need to, if he is going to win this open championship, he is going to need to have a very accurate driving week. He is going to need to have a very responsible and sensible game plan, which he has had in fairness at some of these recent major championships where
And he's going to need to have a very good wedge week. And he's absolutely capable of that. I think his...
lack of elite wedge play often gets overblown sometimes it's just relative to the field it's it's not as much of a strength for him in terms of a skill separator as like his his power off the tee or his long iron play um murray is a good wedge player he's just not it's just not like an edge for him the way that some of these other aspects of his game are and
That aspect of his game is going to need to be working this week. And both of those things in terms of accuracy and restraint and measurement off the tee, which he's done before at Royal Troon in 2016, and wedge play, particularly on the front nine...
are just going to be really, really important for his success this week. And I'm not running to the window to bet anyone at 8-1 unless I think it is a damn near perfect course fit. And I think this is a good Rory McIlroy golf course and course fit. I think it is very far from a perfect one. And I think as far as major championships go,
He's going to be a phenomenal course fit at close to every single major championship, particularly U.S. Opens, that we go to from a skill set standpoint because of his long iron play and his power off the tee, which typically tend to be the two most heavily correlated skill sets that you need in modern major championships. And I would argue that Royal Troon, specifically, compared to other major championships, is
is going to highlight that skill set of long iron play and power off the tee probably far less than, than other major venues. Just in the sense that this is, this is not a golf course that is,
necessarily endorses a very power-heavy approach, particularly because of the Miss Fairway penalty that I think we're looking at this week. And it's not a golf course that is anything close to a pure long iron test either. So, I mean, I guess we did the Rory thing at the top now, but the point being,
The things that I do know with certainty as we sit here on Sunday morning, I'm not betting Scheffler. I'm not betting Rory. Although I got to say, I actually, and I touched on this a little bit in the podcast that I do with Bamford. I actually like Scheffler's course fit far more than I like Rory's. And I would say that based on the conversations that I'm having, based on the stuff that I'm listening to,
I am far more worried about Scotty Scheffler at this golf course than consensus. And I kind of understand why there's a, there's a touch of Scheffler malaise, relatively speaking compared to, to other majors recently where, you know, we all kind of just penciled Scheffler in at the U S open myself included. And he burned a lot of people and showed a lot of people that, Hey,
His floor might not actually be a top 10 finish. His floor is a top 40, you know, a 40th place finish, and he could still easily lose six strokes putting on any given week. I understand why people may have a bit of a bad taste in their mouth still from Pinehurst, even though he came back and won the next week. But,
I love this golf course for Scotty Scheffler. I really do. And I think for whatever reason, Scheffler will be lower owned this week than he is typically at major championships. You know, we'll see how ownership shakes out, but I may be heavily, heavily invested in Scheffler from a DK standpoint. And, you know, in,
I understand it's not very much of a hot take to say that Scheffler wins. I'm just saying relative to expectation from an ownership standpoint, from a narrative standpoint, we are not seeing the Scheffler love or anything close to it than we saw at Pinehurst. And I think that's unwise. I think it should be at least...
our feelings about Scheffler on this golf course should at least be very similar to how we felt about him at Pinehurst, in my opinion. But I'm not betting Bryson. I'm not betting Xander. I'm not betting Ludwig. So at the top, you know, my favorite from a drafting standpoint is definitely Scheffler. And I could talk more about why, you know, I think the pendulum has swung way too far and,
with him and from an actual golf course fit standpoint. But once you get past those five guys at the top that I'm not betting, Scheffler, Zander, Rory, Ludwig, Bryson, it's about as wide open for me in terms of a major as I felt in a long time.
I'm just not going to do it with the top five guys. And I'm very, very worried about Scheffler. Um, but I, I'm maybe not as worried as I should be about Bryson Ludwig, Xander Rory, you know, uh, Rory is always its own separate conversation for me personally. But, um,
Outside of Scheffler and Scheffler's number is far too low really still for me to even consider, despite my love for his course fit. It's a pretty easy pass from a betting standpoint on the top of the board at this major championship. And the two bets that I have made are 50 and 125. There's a chance that I bet no one under 30 to one this week. We're going to talk about some of the players I'm swimming around, but I'm
I think this one's pretty wide open. Um, and if you go back and look, I, I don't think that that's a completely unwise strategy, you know, over the last decade, there's only been three players to win an open championship under 25 to one. Um,
30 percent. Three out of the last 10 years, it's been under 25 to one. And seven out of the last 10 years, it's been 25 to one or higher. You had Jordan Spieth at Birkdale, 12 to one. Rory at Liverpool, 12 to one. Phil Mickelson at Muirfield, 16 to one. So this has actually been a very kind major over the last decade to players in the
25 to 1 to 75 to 1 range. Harmon was even as high as 150 last year. Zach Johnson was 100. Shane Lowry was 80. Molinari was 25. Cam Smith, 25. Like seven of the last 10 open winners have been 25 to 1 or higher, which is a higher average over the last decade than the other three majors. So anyway, we'll talk about it. I'm...
I'm feeling good about this one, despite the fact that I like I'm feeling really good about how I'm seeing the board and seeing the golf course, despite me not having like a clear favorite to win. Still, I'm having an awesome Scottish Open DraftKings week. I had such a great start to the DraftKings season. And then.
Since a big week at the Heritage, I haven't really had a big sweat in the last one and a half, two months. But if Wyndham Clark, who got out to an insane start this morning, EVR, Bobby Mack, Adam Scott, Nikolai, and Ludvig all play well today, it was just one of those weeks where I
The flyers I took on Adam Scott and EVR really look like they're going to pay off. So it could be an amazing DK week for me. We got the Davis Thompson outright home at the John Deere. We had a plus eight unit betting week at the John Deere, have some sweats at the Scottish open. So yeah,
After what, you know, for me, for my standards, felt like a little bit of a cold month and a half between post-PGA championship, which was good, to Rocket Mortgage, which was bad by my standards. I'm feeling great. We're heating up at the right time. I feel like I have a really good sense of the golf course when it comes to Royal Troon, and yet I cannot...
figure out who the hell is actually going to be my official pick to win, which is not a position that I'm typically in on Sunday mornings prior to a major championship. So I'm excited to talk through it. We'll give a quick weather update, talk about some historical trends and angles.
And my models and the players that I'm really swimming around from a betting perspective. Again, if you want a far more extensive breakdown of the golf course, I'm not going to do a lot of golf course talk outside of just some trends and angles and a little bit on the weather aspect.
Um, and some overview stuff, like I'm mainly going to talk about the players. Uh, you can check out my course preview podcast with Bamford. Uh, again, this is more going to be talking about talking through the betting board and who we think can and can't win. So, you know, I mentioned some of the former winners. We'll touch on this briefly and the weather, but you know, do not freak out if the scoring is lower this week. Um,
I'm optimistic about the weather being at least, you know, somewhat conducive to more challenging conditions, but...
We've only had two single-digit winners under par in the Open Championship in the last 10 years. And in the last 10 years, we've had five winners at minus 15 or better. So the Modern Open Championship is a tournament that is traditionally won at double digits under par. That is just what the Modern Open Championship is. And close to 50% of the time now, over a decade-long sample size,
this golf tournament has won at 15 under par or better. For context, there have been just four winners at 15 under par or better from 1860 to 2014. So in 156 years, we've had four winners above 15 under par. And in the last 10 years, we've had five winners under 15 under par. So you know,
Listen, we cannot expect anymore for to be able to consistently rely on wild weather conditions to challenge the modern player anymore in an open championship. The last real carnage inducing open championship where, you know, we had a winner at three under par and just one guy under par was back in 2013 at Muirfield, um,
If you are not pro rollback at this point, you're just stupid. I don't know how else to put it. In terms of the modern professional game, and I'm not going to do a whole thing on this, but I had an interesting recent visit to maybe the best inland golf course in America that the only reason why it cannot host golf
Major champ, you know, the one of the most historic venues in America, the oldest 18 hole golf course in America that was in serious, serious conversations to host a major championship, a U.S. Open.
And we ultimately in a major metropolitan area, right, 25 minutes from downtown Chicago, a top five biggest population and Gulf Star City in the U.S. And the only reason why we couldn't host a United States Open is.
At the oldest 18-hole golf course in America that also happens to be an architectural masterpiece and a historic landmark 25 minutes outside of freaking Chicago, the only reason that we can't have a United States open our national championship at that golf course is because ball go too far now. Okay, that's it.
That's the only reason why we can't do it there. And these beloved 1860 Open Championship venues, it's 15 under par or better unless you get crazy weather these days. Roll the fucking ball back. Preserve the game. Okay.
Um, let's talk about some trends and angles. Uh, so, you know, on average, the previous 11 winners of the open had appeared in 10 open championships prior to their victory. Obviously Morikawa broke that mold as a debutant. Um,
Cameron Smith and Jordan Spieth won an open on their fourth appearance. Ernie Els represents the opposite end of the spectrum, winning the 2014 open in his 21st appearance. So, you know, it's, I would still say that open championship experience, you're, you're,
Obviously going to have your Morikawa that's in the range of outcomes, but this is typically a tournament won by a player that's played in between four and 12 Open Championships, right? 10 of the last Open Champions had a previous Open Top 10. Again, Morikawa is really the outlier, but previous Open success remains unquestionably important.
Eight of the last 10 winners had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two majors. Recent major form remains crucial. That might not spell the best for like a John Rahm or a Brooks Koepka, but you know, a lot of the time, 80% of the time over the last decade, it's guys that are playing well in the majors this year. Like at least that have, uh,
you know, pop their head out a little bit in, in some of the majors this year already every and, and, you know, far more so historically as well. Every single one of the last 10 finishers had recorded a previous top two in a major in their career.
And then, of course, I know that the Open Championship probably gets talked about as the most wide open major, comparatively speaking, to the other majors. And that's true to a certain extent in the sense that this is typically outside of like St. Andrews. This is typically the major that
accentuates power off the tee the most. And most of the best players in the world hit the ball really far now. And most of the best players in the world are really great long iron players. And this major in particular, you know, add in the fact of some weird weather at times is the least, you know, particularly compared to Augusta, particularly compared to
a lot of your modern U S open and PGA championship venues. This is absolutely the major that least accentuates that modern skillset, that modern major championship skill set of power off the tee and long iron play. And so, you know, from that standpoint, it, it allows a wider range of players to win and,
But at the end of the day, and we can talk about like some of the lead in trends and the commonalities that we saw between players such as Shane Lowry and Brian Harmon and Zach Johnson.
Recent form is still incredibly important at the Open Championship. It is incredibly unlikely that a struggling player is going to find their game on a Lynx golf course. And eight of the last 10 Open Champions recorded a top 10 in one of their previous three starts. And so, you know, while it seemed like Brian Harmon was some massive surprise at 150 to one,
We were there for that week. We remember that week well, right? Like Brian Harmon was one of the highest owned players in the low 7K range in DK. We had many of our friends and colleagues. Shout out Brian Kershner. We're on Brian's shout out Tom Jacobs. We're all on Brian Harmon at 125 to one at 150 to one. He was playing some incredible lead in golf, right? I understand he's Brian Harmon, but he's
He did not come out of left field. This guy just finished second at the Travelers, his signature event, ninth at the Rocket Mortgage, twelfth at the Scottish Open, third heading into Sunday. And even with such strong lead in form, Harmon was the largest price of an open winner since Zach Johnson in 2015 and the highest price of a major winner since Phil Mickelson at the PGA Championship in 2021.
So at the end of the day, like...
You could be looking and swimming in that range of like, who is a guy at longer odds that may not be thought of as an elite player. It seems like Aaron Rye is probably a very strong contender for like the Brian Harmon, Zach Johnson award this year of just a guy who is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball, who is not thought of necessarily as an elite player, but is just like
on the first page of every single leaderboard, like that guy can win the open championship, right? It is just, it is really, really important to be playing good golf. And we have this really strong president, like this, just looking through the similarities of like,
What happened with Zach Johnson in 2015? What happened with Brian Harmon last year? What happened with Colin Morikawa in 2021? What happened with Shane Lowry in 2019? There's a strong historical precedent at Open Championships of finding a guy who...
may not check every single box, right? Zach Johnson certainly didn't check every single box in 2015. Brian Harmon certainly didn't check every single box last year. Morikawa certainly didn't check every single box in 2021. Neither did Shane Lowry in 2019. But like,
Who is an incredibly accurate player off the tee? All those guys, Morikawa, Lowry, Molinari, Stenson, Zach Johnson, Brian Harmon. Who is an incredibly accurate player off the tee?
who is playing great golf, right? So who will be that Brian Harmon, Zach Johnson, Colin Markawa, Shane Lowry this year? I mentioned kind of your Aaron Rye on the longer end of the spectrum, but I think because this has been a major that we've seen,
These guys that, again, may not check every single box, but the one commonality that we've seen to find over the last 10 years is that you have to be a very straight driver of the ball. And obviously St. Andrews being the outlier because that was such a different type of open than what we're going to see this week, what we saw at Liverpool, what we saw at Port Rush, what we saw even at St. George's in terms of like
Just bomb the ball off the tee and it's a putting contest. You could drive like six screens and what do you know, you have the longest driver in the field in Cameron Young and Rory McIlroy and the best putter in the field and Cameron Young at the top of the leaderboard because that tournament is all power off the tee and lag putting.
That's an outlier. Historically, the open championship is accuracy off the tee reset form approach play. Right. And, you know, I think the conclusion that I've come to is like identify your Morikawa Stetson or Molinari like.
very accurate drivers and elite approach players who are just having the best season or find your harman or johnson a more unheralded player who also checks the box of elite form and elite driving accuracy and that's why like i legitimately think that russell henley is super freaking live this week i really do i legitimately think that
Akshay Bhatia and the parallels that Akshay has in terms of his driving accuracy and
you know, in terms of a lot of the stuff that we saw with Akshay, similarly with Morikawa. And in terms of the, a lot of the stuff that we're seeing with Russell Henley, that we also saw with Brian Harmon, that we also saw with Zach Johnson, a lot of the stuff that we saw with Aaron Rye, that we also saw with Harmon, that we also saw with Zach Johnson. Like, I think those guys are incredibly, incredibly live this week. Um, and, um,
Yeah, I think I'm probably good on anything else I need to talk about with the golf course. We're just going to get right into the players. Oh, real quick, just a little weather update as we sit here on Sunday. So we're five days away from tee off. The conditions appear fine. Okay. Like I think a little bit less than yesterday.
in terms of wind than what we saw in 2016. Now, I think that will balance out because this is a rare instance, in my opinion, and I'm hesitant to say this because the safest bet whenever talking about golf courses in the modern area is just assume it's going to play easier than you expect.
But running through the changes that they made, that Martin Ebert and McKenzie made ahead of the 2024 Open, they made some real changes based on the specific yardages that they added to certain holes and allowing the rough to grow up on certain spots and narrowing the fairways on certain spots and how deep some of these pop bunkers are like.
They did a good job of making the golf course harder. Like this was not a TPC river Highlands renovation where we're going to change like four holes and try and act like we made the golf course harder, but we didn't actually do anything to make the golf course harder. They did some real things here. Like the specific yardages that they added to certain holes actually changed the strategy on, on really some of the holes, like an example of this for, uh,
to just give one, one hole that I think the back tee is going to change the strategy of the hole. Like the final par five, 16, moving that tee back to require players to maybe have to lay up now and make that a three shot hole that really changes the complexion of that entire hole. Like the added yardage on six, like that makes that a real par five now. Um,
Even the extra 40 yards on four, which was such a gimme par five in the past, it's still going to probably play as one of the easiest, if not one of the easiest holes on the course. They actually made changes that will have a legitimate impact on scoring. Now,
The golf course is going to see a little bit of rain on Wednesday afternoon evening and not really have an adequate time to dry out. The rain is going to continue a little bit into Thursday morning and the wind doesn't really appear to kick up until Thursday afternoon. Friday looks pretty calm, consistent wind speeds, not even over 10 miles per hour. So, you know, a lot could change over the next few days and be sure to check the discord for updates, but
it appears that I'm seeing right now, like maybe a bit of an AM PM advantage. Thursday afternoon is like the really only windy segment across Thursday and Friday. And then conditions remain pretty calm on Saturday and Sunday again. And we are getting both a soft golf course with not that much rain or wind. And I think, um,
I think Mickelson and Henrik Stenson, who account for two of the best major championship performances over the last decade, getting to 17 and 20 under par is a little bit of a misnomer. I mean, Mickelson was like 11 shots clear of third place. Royal Troon played like over a stroke over par every single day. It was pretty tough in 2016. And I think that
It's, you know, we're going to see maybe a little bit less wind and a little bit less rain than we saw in 2016. But the golf course definitely made some changes to get more difficult. Again, I think we're really swimming in that 15 under range.
And when I say 15 under, I think a couple guys will left and separate and get to 15 under. Last year we saw Brian Harmon get to 13 under par and win by six and really not that many players shoot under par. This is probably now with the changes as tough as a golf course on paper as Royal Liverpool is, but
the wind forecast is, is not as, as, uh, as bad as Liverpool was. So, you know, I think like if you, if you made me guess, I think this is harder than St. George's and St. Andrews, but maybe a little bit easier than, uh, Liverpool, right? Like that, that feels right, right about now. Like I said, on the Bamford pod, I think 17 under, um,
I think my range would be like 13 to 17. Sounds about right. I think is kind of what we could plan for this week. And again, like in summary, Royal Troon is far more similar of a golf course to Royal Liverpool than it is St. Andrews. Liverpool was you go back and look at the stats. We have all the data on Liverpool now.
Liverpool was all about accuracy off the tee, middle to long iron play and short game skill. And St. Andrews the prior year was like the opposite. St. Andrews was all about power and lag putting.
And Troon is so much more closely aligned with the Liverpool skill set, right? It features some of the narrowest fairways and the smallest greens of any course on the open Rota. Troon's greens measure just a quarter of the size of those at St. Andrews. And it's not a golf course that can be dominated with power off the tee. In fact, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson both,
Both deployed an incredibly measured approach, right? Mickelson laid back off the tee on nearly every par four in order to find the short grass. And, you know, similar to Liverpool, Troon should feature one of the highest Miss Fairway penalties on tour. The fairway pop bunkers and surrounding gorse are menacing.
And as we saw at Liverpool, accurate drivers such as Brian Harmon, Sepp Straka, Tom Kim, all those guys possessed a tremendous, tremendous advantage. So while there are many holes on the front nine where players can club down and play for position and still have wedges into the green,
this golf course is long enough now where players will still need to thread the needle on the back nine with driver. And I think a conservative strategy proved optimal with Stenson and Mickelson. You pair that with a lead approach play and a deaf touch around the greens. Like Trun is going to feature a much lower greens and regulation percentage at St. Andrews. And it is by no means a golf course that devalue short game skill. Um,
You know, we're not going to see players putting from 40 yards out the way that we saw last
St. Andrews. This golf course is soft enough and guarded in front of some of these greens by pop bunkers that players are really still going to need to rely on a deft touch around the greens. And, you know, I am primarily this week looking for players with a strong, well-rounded combination of total driving with an increased weight on accuracy and
wedges, long-arm play, and short game skill. So let's take a quick break and then dive right into the model. Okay, so...
We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast.
Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the
better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com slash blue wire.
Just go to Indeed.com slash BlueWire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash BlueWire. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Ryan Reynolds here from Intmobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down.
So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless. I'm going to get 30, 30, I'm going to get 30, I'm going to get 20, 20, 20, I'm going to get 20, 20, I'm going to get 15, 15, 15, 15, just 15 bucks a month. Sold! Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. $45 upfront payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three-month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speeds lower above 40 gigabytes each detail.
Well, I put all of this together in my model, which you can find on the rabbit hole code inside golf. If you want to see all of the inputs or in my article over at rub pure sports.com, um, lot of driving accuracy and total driving, a lot of different proximity ranges on the shorter side with
A lot of high leverage wedge shots that you're going to have to hit, particularly on the front nine of this golf course, coupled with some pretty important long iron shots coming down the stretch. A lot of lengths and wind stuff that I've been looking at particularly. But as I just mentioned, I mean, to me, you're really looking for
accurate total drivers and great approach players that are playing some great golf at the current moment. Not really the pure power and long iron tasks that you see typically at US and PGA venues. You're looking for a little bit more craftiness and short game expertise and short iron play and accuracy off the tee. So let's run through it.
Scotty Scheffler, number one. As I've mentioned, I think the fact that hitting the ball straight and a golf course with a super high missed fairway penalty, I think this actually plays into Scotty Scheffler's skill set far more than some of the US Open venues that have a lower missed fairway penalty. I think one of the mistakes that
I'm not going to say mistake because I kind of got onto this like later in the week by, um, by Wednesday where Pinehurst really that, that missed fairway penalty that I was expecting, uh,
And that pure approach test wasn't as much there. And it was a little bit more about power off the tee and short game and putting, which actually doesn't play into Scottie's hands as much as I believe this golf course will in terms of Pinehurst.
I am 100% certain that this is a better driving golf course for Scottie Scheffler than many of the major championships that he will come to, including Augusta, because Scottie Scheffler has his biggest edge on golf courses off the tee like Bay Hill, like TPC Sawgrass, what I thought would be Pinehurst. And still, generally on paper, probably was Pinehurst. He just didn't execute.
Um, but you know, these golf courses like Mirafield village and TPC sawgrass and Bay Hill, that it's not just pure power off the tee. It's a lot more total driving. It's a lot more accuracy, particularly in the case of Mirafield village that I, you know, I think is, um,
a lot more about accuracy than power and, and it's just such a perfect golf course for Scotty chef or skillset TPC sawgrass to a certain extent as well. These golf courses with a higher miss fairway penalty where you can't just hit the ball long. You need a combination of long and straight. That is true. And, and I, I think Scotty too,
Again, a golf course like St. Andrews was so much more about lag putting than it was about short game skill. I think that's one of the reasons why Cameron Young and Victor Hovland played so well at St. Andrews is that
That golf course was so firm and the par fours were so short that it completely devalued approach play. And it became so conducive to power off the tee and lag putting from inside 30 yards, uh, where so many of those shorter par fours, you could just drive it up there, get it really close to the green. And then, you know, how good are you in terms of power and putting from inside a hundred yards? Um,
This golf course, in my opinion, far more accentuates actual short game skill than it does lag putting. And I think that
I still think lag putting is going to be a good skill at, at any open championship venue. But a lot of these greens are kind of wider in the back than they are in the front. And a lot of the times you're, you're not going to be able to putt from 20, 30 yards out or 120 feet out from off the green, because the pin is going to be in a place that is tucked behind a pot bunker in front of the green. And you're really going to have to display some short game expertise and
All of those things play into Scotty Scheffler's hands. Like you look at you look at Scotty Scheffler's wedge numbers. And I think this is one of the reasons why, you know, I'm starting to realize that I played him at the Travelers, but like I didn't I wasn't half as worried about him at the Travelers than I really should have been. And I think this is one of the reasons also why.
We expect Scheffler to win the Masters, and we expect Scheffler to play well at Muirfield Village, and we expect Scheffler to play well at Bay Hill. RBC Heritage and TPC River Highlands are supposed to be the golf courses where Scotty Scheffler loses a lot of his advantage because those are the golf courses that are bringing your Brian Harmon types far more into play.
I think part of the reason why Scotty Scheffler is performing just as well at TPC River Highlands and RBC Heritage as he is at Muirfield Village and Bay Hill is because Scotty Scheffler's wedge play is
It is so unbelievable right now. Like the advantage that Scotty Scheffler has from 75 yards to 125 yards is just as strong right now as the advantage that Scotty Scheffler has from 200 yards plus. And I spent more time looking at some wedge stuff this week because there's just a bunch of really important wedge shots on the front nine at Royal Troon.
Sky Shelver is the best wedge player in this field. It's not particularly close. He is so good from inside 125 yards. And I think that he is going to have just as much of an advantage scoring on those front nine holes with a wedge in his hands than he is hanging on for dear life on the back nine with a long iron in his hands. And so to me, I mean,
Scheffler is the clear number one course fit and we should be just as afraid of him at this major championship than we have been at any major championship this year. This is
This is a far better golf. Royal Troon is, on paper, is a far better golf course fit than Valhalla for Scottie Scheffler. That's not particularly close. I mean, Valhalla, power off the tee and putting, right? You want Scottie Scheffler on short game skill golf courses and accuracy off the tee total driving golf courses, and that's what we have at Royal Troon. So enough about Scheffler. I'm not betting him, but I just—
Favorite guy in terms of course right at the top. And I hope the Scheffler conversation revs up because it feels like in the early couple of pieces of content that I've listened to, there doesn't seem to be as much fear in him. And that feels a mistake to me. Number two, Rory McIlroy, as we mentioned. I think there's a lot of... He's course-proof, right? I think that Rory McIlroy is...
by far the second most likely player in this field to play well and contend. Um, I don't love it as, as much as I do with Sheffler because Rory is just not remotely close to the wedge player that, that Sheffler is. Um, and he's not as accurate as Sheffler either, but, um,
He knows how to execute a good game plan in these major championships outside of maybe Sunday afternoon. The decisions that he has made at Pinehurst recently, at Los Angeles Country Club recently. I know he didn't really contend at Liverpool last year.
Rory McIlroy took a really good game plan into Liverpool and finished sixth there really without his best stuff, hitting a lot less than driver off the tee. And I think that
We should, you know, completely trust Rory to execute a strong game plan at Royal Troon. He was pretty measured in 2016 for the most part, right? Like he laid back and took a very conservative approach on a lot of the holes at 2016. If you're asking me, though, what's a better bet between Scheffler plus 460 and Rory 8-1? It's kind of tough. I...
I almost argue based on course fit. Scheffler up plus four 60 is the better bet than Rory eight to one. Um, Tony fee now number three in my model. I think he's going to get a lot of love this week. And for good reason, I bet him at 50 to one. Uh, it's a bet for me. And I just look at the open championship resume for Tony fee. Now, um,
18th at Royal Troon in his debut appearance, ninth at Carnoustie, third at Portrush, 15th at St. George's. You know, these are all golf courses that are a lot less like a St. Andrews or a lot more of accuracy off the tee was super important at Portrush. And you look at what he's doing with his irons right now.
it's damn near close to the second best approach player in this field outside of Scotty Schaeffler. Um, Tony Finau is a phenomenal wedge player. Um, and he is a phenomenal long iron player. He's fourth in proximity from 200 yards plus he's fifth in proximity inside 125 yards. Um, he is hitting his irons so incredibly well at the moment. And I think if we can trust Finau to keep the ball in play off the tee, um,
I have...
slight concerns sometimes still about his driving accuracy. But if we can trust Finau to keep the ball in play off the tee, he is chipping and putting the ball so well right now. He is chipping and putting the ball absolutely well enough to win a major championship. He gained four strokes around the green in his last start and 2.4 strokes putting. He's now gained over two and a half strokes on approach in five straight starts. And he's gained over a stroke and a half putting in three straight starts and
So if you're looking at who's a guy in the 50 to 1 range that is displaying a lot of traits in terms of just recent form,
um, and approach play. And overall, this guy's gaining in all four major categories, hitting his driver really well, chipping and putting really well, has played well in the past at open championships. Um, Finau checks every box for me. And I, and I just think 50 to one is far too great of a number. He's even checks the recent major forum. Like you want to play somebody that,
has played well recently in majors. He was very much in the mix at Pinehurst all the way until the very end. So Fienau 50 to one, one of the two bets that I've made this week. Number four, Tyrell Hatton.
In close consideration for me, I think the number's a little low. I think the number's always going to be inflated at Open Championships on your Tyrell Hattons and your Tommy Fleetwoods based on the fact that they're Bretts. But Tyrell Hatton, I think, is a wonderful golf course for him. He finished fifth at Royal Troon in 2016. He is in strong consideration for my betting card. Number five, Xander Shoffley. Yeah, it's fine. What more are you going to say about Xander Shoffley? He's not winning another major this year. He'll probably finish T12 next.
Number six, Tommy Fleetwood. He played great on. It just kind of felt like, you know, Fleetwood had it really going there on Saturday at the Scottish Open. And then he made a double on 18 and kind of is doing nothing this Sunday morning. It's just if I think he is going to play well, I think it is a really big ask to win this golf tournament at 22 to one.
But we'll see. We'll see. I need to look over some of the ball striking stats at the Genesis. He's certainly playing good golf, and it's an excellent course fit in terms of his accuracy off the tee, short game skill, and short iron play. Number seven, Colin Morikawa, who I think might make the most sense to me on paper. Like, I think if I was operating just from my head,
I think Colin should be in heavy consideration for anyone this week. Colin's playing phenomenal golf right now. He is gaining strokes in all four major categories. He's playing well once again at the Scottish Open. We'll see what he does again on Sunday. I don't think that Royal Troon is the perfect comp to Royal St. George's, but...
St. George is a far better comp than St. Andrews. Like I would far rather you look at St. George's as an indication of what you're going to see at Troon than I would St. Andrews. And particularly if we don't get the wind kicking up and you want to talk about strong recent form, strong form in the majors this year, already an open championship winner, a ton of accuracy off the tee, who's chipping and putting the ball beautifully at the moment.
What bad thing can you say about Colin Morikawa? I would say for me personally, in terms of like the guys I'm swimming in the most at the top, it's, and I have room to bet both of them is probably Morikawa and Hatton. Eight, John Rahm, who I really like on Lenks golf courses. I think that John Rahm will win an open championship in his career, but
I just don't know really what to do with the guy at this point. I finally kind of took a break on him at, at Piners, but was pretty heavy on him at, at the masters and Valhalla. And obviously that was from a DraftKings standpoint. And obviously that was fairly disappointing. I like this golf course fit for Rom. Like I, I, I love him on total driving golf courses, just like Muirfield village and Bay Hill, like that, that total driving fit.
That is the reason that you see Scottie Scheffler play so well at Mirafield Village and Bay Hill is the same reason why Rahm has such a big edge at those golf courses and why Rahm hypothetically should have such a big edge on a golf course like this. You got to start having a conversation with Rahm. What's going on with the guy in terms of majors? I think this is a big one for him. I think there's going to be a lot of...
uh, discussion about buyer's remorse and, and what the heck is going on with the guy. If he wastes one of the prime years of his career, um, without contending in a major. And I say that basically from the, the mind view of like, this guy has the potential to be one of the top 15 golfers of all time, right? Like I talked about that in the podcast I just did with Kyle Porter. So the only reason why I'm saying, um,
god what a disappointment it will be if we don't see rom show up to this one is because i i truly think he's that good and i think people have forgotten just how good that he is so um i don't know i i got some time to spend on the live stuff i i haven't gotten a chance to watch much of valderrama i've got some cute valderrama research to do on sunday night but um
I don't know. I really like this golf course for John Rahm. I just don't know if he's sharp enough to win a major. Number nine, Cantlay, is somebody I'm seriously, seriously considering really based on the number. I think Cantlay, who's 45-1 right now on FanDuel,
That's just too high for Cantlay. He's got back-to-back top five finishes, one of them at the U.S. Open. He checks the box of recent major form. When he's at his best, he's an incredibly accurate driver of the ball. The irons are starting to look a lot better. The short game and putting obviously is working for him very well right now as well. He's kind of had a decent resume at Open Championships. Not great, but nothing to the point that's so concerning where...
You think that he can't do it here. Can't lay at 45 to one is just a damn good number and one that I'm going to think about pretty seriously over the next couple of days. 10 Hideki, 11 Corey Connors. These are accuracy off the tee and iron players. 12 Benny Ahn.
13 Max Homa, 14 Shane Lowry, 15 Christian Bazadenhout, 16 Justin Thomas, 17 Ludwig Gobert, 18 Jordan Spieth, 19 Victor Hovland, 20 Russell Henley. And Russell Henley is the second bet that I have made this week at 125 to 1. I bet Russell Henley. And I think that Russell Henley...
is the strongest candidate for the accuracy off the tee approach play. Statistical Darling has played very well in majors before. He's coming off a 10th at Pinehurst this year, checks the box of recent form, checks the box of wedge play, checks the box of accuracy off the tee, checks the box of this Statistical Darling that's basically living in the top 10 of the data golf rankings overall.
all year he's got a phenomenal short game russell henley is the number one bunker player in this field i i trust him to get out of these pop bunkers and not make a mess you look at his wedge numbers inside 100 yards i think he's the type of guy that can get hot and and score on these first couple of holes with his wedges i he's a good enough long iron player and a good enough scrambler and and
good enough at bogey avoidance in difficult conditions, good enough in windy conditions to hang on for dear life on the back nine if the conditions get tougher. I think Russell Henley is live as hell this week. And considering I don't have an official pick to win this week in terms of, I would say, my two favorites this
at the top to bat are, I think Scotty Shaffer, obviously not a hot take. Like I'm just higher on him than consensus this week. I think he is the best. Yeah. I think he is who you should be starting your draft Kings lineups with. I think from a betting perspective, my two favorite guys, um, you know, in the 20 to 35 to one zone range are probably more Akawa and Hatton. And I think my two favorite guys in the mid range are, um,
um, Finau and Cantlay. Russell Henley may just be my, my favorite. Um, I don't think he's more likely to win the golf tournament than Hatton, Morikawa, Finau or Cantlay. That's why their odds are a quarter or half the price. But, um,
Henley is that guy for me. If you're looking for the Brian Harmon of this year, if you're looking for the Zach Johnson of this year, Russell Henley checks all those boxes for me. I talked about Jason Day already as like a
A sneaky play that I may be in on. I'm going to wait for that number. I think he can get to 150 to one. I talked about Akshay already as a guy that checks a lot of the accuracy off the tee recent form Morikawa boxes that I just think this modern player has.
You're going to have some guys break the mold this week, right? Like the top of the leaderboard, there's going to be guys that don't have good open resumes this week. I can just tell you that straight up, particularly if we don't see a ton of wind, right? And it is, you know, I don't agree just because that there have been some more American winners at Royal Troon that this is like a completely Americanized open championship venue. You know, there's a lot of
quark to this golf course. It is a very old school Scottish style golf course. But the way that modern technology has been optimized to this point, the lack of wind that we may potentially get.
there are going to be guys without great open resumes, like Henley, for example, who doesn't have the best open resume, like Akshay, who doesn't really have much experience on golf courses whatsoever that are still going to play very well this week. You can mark my words on that. So Day, Akshay,
I love Siwoo Kim too, who's off to an incredible start on this Sunday at the Scottish open is like,
I know he doesn't have the best open resume, but you want to talk about a guy who's got a great short game, is a great wedge player, is an incredibly accurate driver of the ball, who has just been having the Brian Armans. He's just making every single cut, living in the top 30, very accurate driver of the ball. Oh, another T-17 for Siwoo Kim.
He's kind of been that guy this year. Um, I think he's going to have a very good Royal true. Um, Corey Connors, I still worry about the short game a little bit, but like Corey Connors played well at, at St. George's, um,
I think there's a lot of arrows pointing in the Corey Connors direction in terms of like, oh, this guy just hits every single fairway, is a great short iron and long iron player, and has been playing some really great golf this year. And again, has that top 10 at the U.S. Open in terms of he's starting to play well at major championships and starting to chip and putt a little bit better too and playing well again at the Scottish Open and is good on slow greens like...
I think these guys are alive. I really think these guys are alive. I, not your us open at Beth page or winged foot where you think that five guys can win. Um, so that will do it for me. We will be back tomorrow evening, probably post this on Tuesday morning, uh,
Your Open Championship DraftKings preview with my guy Kobe DeBose. I cannot wait for that podcast. I cannot wait to probably argue with him about Sheffler this week. He definitely won the Sheffler battle with me at Pinehurst. So it'll be fun to dive back into that with him on this one. We haven't even really talked about
uh, Rory post Pinehurst on a podcast, uh, Kobe being the biggest Rory guy you'll ever meet. So that will be a ton of fun. Um, run pure sports this week. Uh, that's the best place to reach me. Um, I'll be living in the discord this week. Um, I got a bunch of people I'm talking to that are, that are in Scotland on the grounds, weather updates, um,
answering questions about specific players, just a great golf chat all around. All of my plays and my pools for Daily Fantasy, my in-depth course preview article, runpearsports.com, code Andy, sign up for the week. It's a perfect week to do it. It's, I think, less than $15 for the week with my code Andy. So, yeah.
It's a perfect week to do it. Give us a shot. I promise you on these major weeks, you'll get your money's worth. Rumpuresports.com. Code Andy if you want to join the discussion on the final major championship of the year. I really appreciate all the support this year, guys. It means a lot. It's been my biggest year in terms of growth and podcast listeners. So it really means a lot that you continue to sit here and listen to me talk.
uh talk about agronomy solo and into a microphone for an hour um thank you very much as always uh big things ahead if you have the ability to get this show around to share to more people if if this helped you in any way in terms of your course breakdown of royal troon in terms of the players that you're targeting on the odds board um it means so much more than you know on these
on these major weeks, even as simple as a five-star review on Apple Podcasts or a retweet on Twitter or just telling a friend. So good luck with your Scottish Open. Enjoy the rest of Wimbledon. Enjoy the rest of the Scottish Open.
Hopefully Ludwig and EVR and Bobby Mack and Adam Scott and our guys in Scotland could get us a nice little bankroll heading into the Open Championship. And it's going to be a phenomenal week. So until then, until next time, enjoy your Sunday. Enjoy the rest of this great summer weekend. And we will see you back on this podcast feed tomorrow. Cheers.
Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI. Because legal fees and time in court are just the beginning. Getting into a crash is another way that your world can be turned upside down. Your vehicle may not be the only thing that gets damaged in that crash. You can face a life altering injury
or even death. But you're not the only one that can face those consequences. Your decision to drink and drive can permanently impact not just your world, but someone else's world as well. Whether you injure them or leave their loved ones grieving. The next time you're out drinking, call a ride share, a taxi, a sober friend,
or a designated sober driver. The only decision that will change your world for the better is the decision to call for a sober ride. Drive sober or get pulled over. Paid for by NHTSA.