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All right. Inside Golf Podcast. Welcome in. Phenomenal off the rail show today with the great Boston Capper of the Golf Gambling Podcast, who we'll bring on in a second to talk some Valero Texas Open.
But first, this podcast is presented by RickRungood.com. You can find all of my written work, all of the data and tools that I will be referencing in this pod over at RickRungood.com, promo code Andy. That is promo code Andy. I know I teased the mayor pod on my Sunday show. Honestly shocked from the mayor groundswell that I've received today. Uh,
That was not a Venn diagram that I expected to have much overlap. So I'm going to put that one out. I am going to put that one out when the time is right, probably right after the Masters if I survive. I've said yes to a concerning amount of things that week. So I'll probably want to take it super easy the next week, which I believe is the heritage. So maybe I'll just drop it then. Who can say? Monitor the space is all I can say, but I think that's it at the top.
So let's bring in Boston Capper. All right. Boston Capper is here of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. How's it going, buddy? How are you? I know you've been jumping around a lot. You just recorded with my boy Kirshner. What's going on? How are you feeling? I'm good, man. It's Monday. It's a new week. It's nice and warm in Florida, unlike where you're at. It's the Valero, right? Everybody's excited about next week.
I don't know. Like, I'm still excited about it. Look, there's still opportunity money to be made here. But yeah, I mean, look, it's everybody's looking forward to next week. There's all different types of storylines we can talk about.
yeah i mean look i'm in a good spot man like i'm happy with it like the match play did not go well for me at all i was all over hat and thought hatton was going to be the band and then he you know what he made it through the first round and then petered out and you know what he said on his interview he was like after he finished out uh the not uh the first round he was like i'm gonna go back and drink some hazies and relax and i was like that my bet's dead and my dad was dead
My bet was absolutely dead. So, you know, we'll, we'll, we'll talk some masters too. I mean, why not? We could do a little match play too. I mean, other than touched on it a little bit, but what'd you think of the tournament on a whole? So I love match play. I didn't do well this year, but I like the format and it's a nice change of pace. I could use two of those a year too.
I could use two. Yeah, I definitely could. I could definitely use two a year because, I mean, that's how we play without buddies, right? And so, like, the average golf fan likes to see that, right? Like, you put pressure on your buddy. You needle him about his drive. You know what I mean? Like, maybe you walk up a little slower, take a little longer for your putt. Like, it's fun. Like, I really do enjoy it. And listen, man, it's good to see the best golfers out there doing it. And, yeah, whatever, man. It's fun. It's good. Like, they make a shit ton of money. And it's still amazing to me.
how bad the coverage can be. Yeah. When there's so few golfers on the course. I don't, I don't understand it. Like, I still don't understand how they don't understand what their top target demographic is. It's younger guys, right? You, not me. Right. With money coming up, like, like who want to bet and play golf. Like,
give us the shots give us what we want espn plus is doing it great and you go and it switches to the golf network at like two o'clock and i'm like there goes my viewing experience it's over the streams on espn plus kind of shut off once it goes to golf channel right yeah they just they just die at two i'm watching a matchup and they're like fucking 13 holes through and now i just gotta wait nope back to shot tracker on pga app
Yeah, they haven't figured that one out. This one is still NBC, right? And then we get back to CBS for the Masters, right? Correct. All right, so only one more week of Azinger. One more week. Oh, my God.
That guy. The funniest thing about Azinger is that he's in love with Corey Connors' putting and chipping. I find that to be the funniest thing about Azinger. It's like he's never watched him play. Everybody who's bet or had Corey Connors in DFS golf, when they see a shot link and it says, Corey Connors for four feet, everyone is nervous. Everyone, except for Azinger. He's not always going to make it. He's one of the best players on tour. What are you talking about? No, he's not. Stop it. Stop it.
Stop it. I don't even think you need to be like a stats nerd or somebody like us that's betting and playing DFS every week to know that with Connors. I think you could just see that based on the eye test. Oh, God. Yeah, but maybe Azinger just like, I don't know. Who knows, man? He's old. Maybe he's like sipping his tea and he's not paying attention until they cut to him and he's like, oh, Corey Connors from four feet. Oh, he made that one. It's great. Who knows? Like, I don't know. Like, who knows, man? Like...
I'm excited for the fucking Masters. I'm glad the WGC is behind me. It's always like fantasy football season, right? I love building my teams and drafting. And then once the season starts, I'm like, hey, it's fine. All right, move on to the next week. Well, we'll talk some Masters too, but hang on. Before we get past match play, there's a new world number one. There is. And listen, I just want to say,
There was a rant that I did on your podcast in January. Do you remember what I'm talking about? Oh, sir. It was a beautiful thing. It was literally the first meme thing I've ever made. It took me, I don't know, three hours, but I figured it out. And yeah, I got the Andy Lack rant on Jon Rahm, and it was beautiful. And everything is coming up Andy, bro. Everything is coming up Andy. So-
I get a lot of things wrong. I'm not going to do a huge victory lap here just because I actually think Rob's probably pretty dangerous at the Masters too. He is. He is. Right. I will say this. The main thesis of my argument was this guy is not going to run away with it. There's no gap. This shit's a revolving motherfucking door. All these guys are not separated by a lot. And if you had asked me during that rant,
like who I thought was going to take it. Scheffler probably would have been like the 13th guy I would have gone to. I know, dude. No, it wasn't. I mean, I've always been high on Scheffler. I fucking love Scotty Scheffler. Yeah, he's a great kid. But I wasn't sitting here saying Rom's going to get overtaken by Scheffler. I was just saying Rom's going to get overtaken by someone. Yeah, it's that recency bias, right? Like that this...
this culture right now is yeah we gotta find the next next goat patrick mahomes wins one super bowl oh he's the next brady he's won one pump the fucking brakes like pump the brakes like it's it's it's insane how we just try to fill the void for the next tiger in this sport we might not never see it we might not ever see another time ever
And the, I agree. I don't think we are going to, and the pendulum thing swings so fucking quickly too, because now, now people are, now people are saying, or like, ah, Ron fucking sucks. And it's like, all right, hold on. I'm not saying that like, like chill out. Like Rob's still dangerous or shit. Like at worst, he's like a top five player in the world. Right. But this happens. We're going to go through so many cycles with this guy. Remember what, remember when camp
everyone's freaking out about Cantlay and Cantlay was like 14 and 12 to one. Like, can't always going to be the forgotten elite at the masters. The way things are trending right now. Like who the fuck's betting? Everyone's cocks hard for Brooks right now. JT's JT. Rom is still wrong. I still think he's dangerous as shit. You got Sheffler and cam and, and fucking Rory, obviously. And Jackie. And it's like this guy that was nine to one at some places. And everyone was talking about Cantlay. Like,
He might be 26, 27 to one.
No, no way. You don't think so? No. You think... Wait. Kalen. Oh, Kalen. No, Rom. No, Rom will stick at 14. I think Rom will be 14 max. He didn't play bad enough at the match play to really get... He didn't play bad enough to get the narrative really going. He played just well enough. Honestly, dude, I thought he outplayed Brooks in that match. He missed an...
uphill straightaway eight footer to win that match and yet everyone walked away from that match going crazy over brooks yeah but i feel like that's just like the brooks contingent does that make sense like yeah i think i'm friends with a lot of those people though yeah no no it's so much like so much look i'll bet i'll the same guy who's like wait brooks with 35 to one like it is what it is like i mean yeah you probably could eat
Yeah, I mean, he should have been able to beat him. Well, our boy Nagel's got his wish, right? Xander sucks, huh? Oh, my God, dude. Yeah, Nagel's must be so fucking happy right now. Like, he's through the moon with his...
How'd you say it? I don't know. But I say his beautiful mind, his little chart, like, all right, if this happens and that happens, and he keeps calling it my masters. And I'm like, oh, dude, I'm just going to mush this fucking guy to death. Like, what are we doing? Like, if you really want this to happen, you can't speak. I just yelled at BK on the last part. He was like, this guy's on a – he did it twice. He hasn't missed a cut in 14. He hasn't missed a cut in 13. I'm like, well, fuck.
we made a side bet on Cagely now to miss the cut because I think he mushed Cagely. He's going to miss the cut this week. That's the bet. We got a charity bet on Cagely missing the cut. And yeah, it's so mushable. Like,
I don't know. I don't know what he's doing. If he really wants this to happen and look, I hope Xander drifts. I do. I think he will, man. I, he, so he was a very popular bet last week. Did you bet him? A lot, a lot of people did. Yeah. So I bet him too. And a lot of people that don't typically bet Xander, uh,
Bet Xander and we saw how he played. Actually, he looked great against Finau, to be honest with you. Finau just made eight birdies that day. He made so many birdies. That's somebody who we're going to talk about later. Cause I need you to take on it. Cause I know I chirped you on Twitter earlier with it, but I looked into it a little bit. It's not that bad, right? Yeah, it's really not. And like, if you look at like the strength of the field,
It's something you're right. He was just rolling them in. But you know, what's funny is, so I had, I had Herbert over Xander in that matchup, but I had Xander to come out of the pod because I thought, I thought he, I thought he would have lost to him, but beat the other two and been fine. Cause Herbert would have fucked up somewhere else. So I don't know. Xander is such a,
I don't know. I know he's your boy, right? I know he's not. Yeah, but you also know that I'm very logical about it. Oh, absolutely. Yeah, no, no, I know you are. I'm not like a crazy delusional fan. Well, I don't think Niggles is delusional about Xander either. Listen, man, I'm not going down this road.
I besmirch him on a pod and I get fucking killed. I get drive-bys left and right. Dude, he didn't talk to me for like two months for something. It's fine. Like, it is what it is. I'm not trying to drag you down that road. It's fine. I think that...
a lot of the criticism on Xander is fair. You know, the one thing that I always defend Xander on is that I think the Olympic win is underrated. Yeah. I think that's really underrated. Um, and I just don't think that we have a relationship to the Olympics yet, but I think that that win is going to age well as we go along. And I think what happens with his dad really means something, but I get it with Xander, right? Like I have, I have my concerns about him too, but,
I think it's going to be an interesting situation, right? Because this is my official prediction for what's going to happen. Master's week. Okay. So if Xander is like 28 to one, no one, no, hold on. Listen to me. I think it could go lower than that. I don't think people are going to bet Xander at 25 or 28 to one at the masters. I don't think so. I,
I really don't. I think there are too many good options. I think the Brooks love is too strong. I think JT will be popular. I think Rory will be popular. I think tiger will play and people will bet tiger. I, it, what if Bryson shows signs of right? Tiger at fucking 40 to one. Oh, you wait. Fucking squares. I don't care about those people. I don't care about those people. Good. I hope that moves better. Golfers numbers better. Like you have to be out of your fucking mind to,
to bet tiger at fucking 40 to one. Okay. I'm with you. I'm speaking for the general public. I know. I know. I know. Do you think the general public listens to the show, Andy? I think the, I think the average listener of the snow is, is very smart. Like I think most people that listen to this show are absolutely are very serious, but I do think that there are people that are listening to the show that are going to bet tiger masters week.
100%. 100%. How about this? I'm Boston underscore capper on Twitter. I will take all of your action. All of it.
Listen, I'm with you. I'm not going to play him. I'm not going to play him in DraftKings. It's not for me this week. But I'm telling you right now, he will be popular. The narrative is already building and he's not even in the field. Let me get back to the point I was making at Xander because at some point we have to talk about this tournament. But I think that if Xander...
is like 25 to 28 he will not be popular i really think that we're going to get some drift with some of these guys but i think if zander is 35 he will be incredibly popular i think that's how small like the radius is with him right like i think it got yeah yeah dude look what happened to
Look at Finau, for example, this week. I don't think anyone was considering Finau at 33-1, but at 45 and at 50, I think a lot of people are interested, right? And I think that even gets smaller as it decreases. I'll give you another example. If Rom was 9-1, I don't think you'd get one person talking about betting Rom, but if Rom's 14-1, I think he'll get action, right? And I think Xander...
I think Xander has the legitimate potential to be in the mid thirties. And I think if he is in the mid thirties, people will bet it. And I think if he is in the mid twenties, people will not bet it. So that is, and I'm not sure where he's going to fall. So that's the only point I'm making. Man, but I would love to be able to get a 28 to one on Xander at the Masters. As much as I always break balls about like, he's never at the right number, like 28 to one at the Masters.
Yeah. All day. Like all day. Let me ask you this. I'm not a Xander guy. Hang on. Let me ask you this question. Would you rather bet Xander at 28 or Cantlay at 26? Xander at 28. Okay. Would you rather bet Xander at 28 or DJ at 24? DJ at 24. Okay. Would you rather bet Xander at 28 or Berger at 40?
I'm telling you, people are going to fucking come out of the woodwork this week because all these books, I was talking to Feinberg on the phone about this this morning. These books are coming out, like there's all these bonuses and they're competing for everyone's money. And with the boom of legal sports betting and the Masters is different, like guys are going to get boosted and shit. Like I think you're going to, there's going to be some appealing prices. I really believe that.
There's so many guys under fucking 25 for one right now. They can't all stay there. 100%. And listen, who's getting the drift? What happens if Bryson plays well this week? What happens if a decky plays well this week? What happens if Rory plays well this week? There's just somebody, somebody, somebody has to fall is my, is my only point. And I think the perception on Xander is negative right now. And I think a lot of that is justified.
Is it really justified? Are you taking that much away from the match play? No, I'm not taking that much away from the match play, but I'm considering all of the factors here, which is,
Xander's lead in form was good heading into the match play. Like you look at the way Xander hit the ball at Riviera and at the Valspar, it was really good. But there's a certain point where it's like he hasn't won in so long. And now you have guys that weren't really winning like your Shefflers and your Cam Smiths and your Sam Burns that are winning a lot.
Right. And even the elites that haven't been winning as much like Brooks and DJ, like no one's making those and Rory, I guess a little bit and ROM, I guess a little bit like no one's making those arguments that those guys can't win golf tournaments. People are making arguments that like Xander, like legitimately can't win golf tournaments, which I know you and I both don't believe, but you know, there people are saying that. And I, whether I think it's fair or not, like part of it's fair, but
I can't argue with all of it. He hasn't won in three years, right? Other than the Olympics, right? No, Fowler's won more recently than him. Jason Day's won more recently than him. Fowler might win this week, too. Stop it. Listen, stop it. Fowler's not winning this week. He's not winning this week. You see my point, though. Yeah, no, you're right. So could we get a three in front of Xander? Huh?
100%. Yes, I think so. That would be very nice. I think so. All right, let's talk about this tournament in Texas we got this week. Yes, let's do it. Valero Texas Open, in my opinion, and I already gave a pretty full breakdown on the course, but it's a pretty standard, down-the-middle, stock PGA Tour golf course, in my opinion. It's a par 72, 7,400 yards. It's really straightforward, in my opinion. It's kind of all out in front of you. I don't think...
Greg Norman is, you know, he's not Alistair McKenzie or CB McDonald out there where there's a ton of fucking nuance.
It's a solid test. I don't think it's like putting piece of shit putting contest. I think it's a solid T to green test that will reward the best players. But to me, it's like, can you keep the ball and play off the T? Can you hit your middle irons? Well, can you score on the par fives? Have you putted well on these types of greens? And ideally, are you not playing the masters in my opinion? But that's, that's kind of it for me. What about you?
Yeah, no. So definitely the par fives. I want somebody who's good on a sand and I want somebody who's good from around the green. I forgot to mention that you're right. Bunker plays big. And I should have mentioned that too. Yeah, it's definitely big out of the sand. And so let me ask you this, right? So because I don't, I rely on guys like you and Steve for like the breakdown of stats and things like that. Do you say sand saves? If you hit a fairway bunker?
Does that count as a sand safe? No, it's around the creek. No, it doesn't, right? No, it's around the creek. It's just around. And there's a shit ton of bunkers that are mean along the fairway here. Yeah. So...
I don't know. I know Steve did his Michael Jordan game today. Like I said, he's got the stomach flow. And he did a quick 20-minute pod where he sounded like he was fucking dying on his lunch break today. And he was talking about they put new sand in there that might have made a difference, but he doesn't really know. I don't know. Definitely the sand saves. Definitely par 5 scoring.
So when you say mid irons, I'm thinking like one 50 to one 75. Yeah. I'm thinking like one 50 to 200. Okay. All right. So, so I cut it down a little bit. So I think that's a longer, I mean, it's just my golf game. So yeah, man, like, like it's,
And you're right, it is a straight-and-front-hand golf course. There's a couple decent holes on the back nine, but the front nine is boring as shit. 17 is a drivable par four. That hole's pretty cool. Yeah, that hole's cool, and 11's cool. Yeah, I mean, that's the same shit we look at every week, man, really, if you think about it. Other than, I feel like the greens are hard to hit here. It doesn't really matter what you do off the tee, right? Because, like you said, the rough isn't that penal. Yeah. Yeah, I mean...
It's the same shit we look at all the time. But I really do feel like sand is a big thing here. I do too. I highlighted that a ton both in my Sunday preview show and in my article with Rick. I think one thing I noticed, just to put some stats to back up to what you're saying, around the green here, it's really, really easy. I don't have the stats in front of me now. But one thing that I noticed was
getting up and down from the rough around the greens, one of the easiest on tour, but getting up and down from the bunkers around the green, one of the hardest on tour. So you're right. These bunkers are very deep and there's a low greens and regulation percentage. You're not going to be hitting all these greens and you're going to have to have a strong bunker play. I'm with you on that one. Yeah. And so what, what makes a rat? So if,
If the rough isn't that penal around here, right? And you miss the green, what around the green is just that they have those closely shaven like runoff areas, right? Yeah. So there's this really cool tool that you can see where it actually measures up and down percentage from shaved areas or like the fairway.
uh, the rough and bunkers. And you could see how it regs on other courses versus how this one is to how hard it is to get up and down. So yeah, that was one thing I noticed, but anyway, let's do the odds. All right. So are you betting any favorites this week? I'm looking at the guys under 25 to one Rory Spieth, Hideki Connors, Bryson answer. Any of those guys have your attention. Bryson only because the number of scenes wrong.
Yeah, what are you saying? Like 28? 28. Dude, I got a 30. I don't want to pull the trigger, but at the same point, he's 28-1 to win the Masters next week. Yeah. The fucking Masters. And I know future betting is garbage, but at the same point, man, 28-1, if he goes out and torches his fucking field because it doesn't matter what he does off the tee and the rough is a penal and he can somehow putt, like...
I don't know. I haven't pulled the trigger on it yet. I don't see it moving anywhere. He doesn't seem to catch anything in his team. Did you watch him at the match play? Yeah, he just looked rusty. I thought he looked better than Spieth. Yeah, he definitely did. So the Spieth swing routine thing that you pointed out. Now you're trying to trigger Nagels because this is what we were arguing about last week. Listen, this doesn't matter about Jeff. It doesn't. His swing routine is fucked.
There was a rando on the golf course. It looked like a cart girl behind him was like, what the hell is he doing? They zoomed in on her and she was giving him a side eye. It looks like when I have a friend that is just...
picking up golf for the first time. And they do the pre-swing routine where they take it back way farther than most people take it back because they're really trying to feel the motion and the position of the club. I don't claim to be an expert on this stuff. I don't also think that you need to be a rocket scientist to look at that and see that. Yeah, it doesn't look good. Listen, even if you don't watch golf,
And you want to take the mindset of, I'm not going to try and play swing doctor on this guy. The stats aren't good either. Like the eye it's eye test and stats, but I will say this. I ran into this problem with Spieth a couple of weeks ago or a couple of months ago at a pebble. And I thought he worked horrible. I think he looks just as bad now, if not worse. I mean, the routine is terrible.
morphed. I don't know if it's better or worse, but it was still weird before Pebble. And I think there are courses where it doesn't matter that much with Spieth. I really do. Now, I don't know if this is one of those courses. He's been, he's outside of his win here. He's still been good, but he hasn't been like insane. I think he's going to play well this week. I do think he's going to make the cut, but I'm not considering betting any of these guys.
No, no, I'm with you. Like even, even in, even at DFS, I was like, I'm just going to skip this whole fucking range. Like, yeah, I mean, that's it. Like you're out on all those guys in DFS. I put answer in DFS. No. So BK said the same fucking thing, man. And I don't know. I just need to be popular.
I mean, no, I mean, not relative to the field. I just don't trust what. Who's just to shift it to DFS for a second. Cause I haven't looked at ownership at all. Who's like the leverage guy. Oh, no, no. The leverage guy, the leverage guy, I guess technically is Bryson.
Bryson's sub 10. Everybody else is north of 10. People are still going to play Hideki with the injury concerns? Yeah, man. Everybody forgets. All right. No, I'm with you. My pool is a lot of guys in the nines, but I was just curious. But is it answer just he's just so bad around the greens? Yes, that is a concern. That is a very fair concern. He also lives in San Antonio and has a chipping green at his house.
a home course narrative, you know, sleeping in his own bed. I mean, listen, it worked for Cam Smith, right? So fucking, I guess, you know, I hate that shit. I know. Yeah. I mean, look, and he had a big contingent out at the match play. They were really loud, right? Like every time I answered me, something fucking seemed like he kicked more call his ass. He did. He did. He made everything. That's another guy. See, we had a whole conversation about,
about Masters odds. And we even fucking mentioned Colin Markle. Do you even fucking mention him? Which I think illustrates both of our points, right? Anyway. Yeah. But okay. All right. That's fair. I mean, I'm not betting any of these guys either. Any other... Do you have any take on Connors? Like, I'm not playing Connors this week. I just... So, I'm not playing him in DFS. He's going to be chalky. And look... Yeah. I don't know, man. It's a good enough reason for me. Yeah. It's a good enough reason for me too. And I'm a Connors guy. I actually think
I bet him. Yeah, I definitely bet him when he won here, when he money qualified was that, that was here, right? When he money qualified. Yeah. And so I bet him played with DFS just because he was super cheap and fucking I'm a degenerate. And, um, and like, that's when Connors became one of my guys and he played really well over the weekend, uh,
You know, I mean, dude, he played a lot of fucking golf and he's still going to be chalky. And this is a guy who competed at the masters, man. He's already proven he can be at the masters. He's, this is a, this is a look ahead spot for him too. He's not old court corners. Like he doesn't really give a shit about winning this. He's coming here. Cause he used to be a champion and he's,
I'm going to pass, especially at that fucking short number. Short number. Like, how do you bet that? Yeah, I would love for him to play poorly this week, and then I would like to bet him at the Masters. Dude, I would 100% bet him at the Masters. 100%. Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's move down a little bit. So this 30 to 60 range, I'm not going to list all these guys specifically,
There's some guys in here. I made some bets. You want me to start off? Yeah, go ahead. I got two, and then I got one guy who I need you to convince me on. Okay, so I bet Siwoo Kim at 40-1. He's the... You know...
I like Siwoo here, man. And I kind of was breaking my narrative a little bit with him and Finau where those are the two guys that I bet that are in the Masters. But I think with Siwoo, you know, he's gone fourth and 23rd here the past two years. And both of those were the week before last.
I don't think he really gives a fuck. And I think he's just going to pop at certain places. And the other thing about Siwu that I liked, I bet him last week too, he was fucking awesome at the match play. Dude, he was so nuts. Yeah, he kicked Bazaydenhout's ass, he beat Berger, and he lost on the last hole to Hatton. I'm telling you right now, Capper, if he was in Xander's group, he would have gone 3-0. Oh, yeah, absolutely. If he was in Bryson's group, he would have gone 3-0. If he was in Spieth's group, I think he would have gone 3-0.
I said it last week when they put him in the same pod. I was like, this is like Sophie's choice for me, Hatton and Sioux. Those are the two of my guys. I didn't know what to do. I went Hatton, and it worked out for an extra round. But dude, Sioux was fucking... He was locked in, man. I love Sioux. I also bet Sioux. I didn't get the 40. I got 36 to one. That's fine. That's solid. I don't care about four points. Yeah. No, that's solid. And then like...
The other two guys that I was in between was my boy, Gary Woodlands and Tony Finau. And, uh,
I was seeing 33s and I saw a rogue 50 on fee now. And I bet fee now. Okay. He made eight birdies in his final match against Sander. And listen, man, the case isn't great. So just let me make it. It's not good. Have at it. Have at it. I wouldn't even interrupt. Go ahead. We've got had, first of all, this is the guy I want you to make a case for. Okay. So, okay. Here's the thing. Here's a principle thing.
We've got Hadwin in the low 30s, which by the way, I love Adam Hadwin. Hadwin's number one in my model this week. Keegan Bradley in the low 30s. Matt McNeely in the low 30s. Chris Kirk is as low as 25 to 1. It's just a pure what are we doing here play with Finau. And I think that he is probably going to be... I think people will bet the 50. I know Jeff was like, I'm going to bet the 50. And so I imagine he probably talked about it with Mayo.
I, it's just a number play, dude. He's 50 to one. And you look at the guys that are 25 to one and it's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. So I took the 50 on fee now. All right. So I can still get a 45 on. Well, who else are you considering? I already bet Woodland at 37.
I like it, dude. I really do. Dude, he looked good on the Florida swing, man. He looked good on the Florida swing. I went fucking buck wild above like 70 to one. So I just, I don't have a room for Woodland, but I'll probably going to play him in one and done and DFS, you know, he's my fucking guy. I love Woodland. And I just, I went off script when I saw the feet, how 50.
Yeah. And listen, I guess I probably would have too. And so when I saw it was 45, I just looked down and I said 40. So it's already getting steamed down. So now I might not even, I don't know, whatever, I guess 40 to 50. Listen, if it gets down to like the high 30s, I think that makes your decision a lot easier. I would agree. And yeah, I mean-
Listen, I was on Woodland early in the year. Like, just like... Like, he's on... I do this random, like, year-long fantasy shit. He's on all my teams. Like, I just feel like he was a bounce-back candidate. Yeah, me too. Yeah, he's on my team still. Yeah, like... And...
Winners are better field. Because he's not in the Masters, so if he wins, he's in. I think he's in the Masters. Is he? How's he in the Masters? I was surprised, too. He's on the website. If he's on the website, it's true. I'm not even breaking any balls. The only reason why I know this is because everyone's fucking screenshotting Tiger Woods, and guess whose name is right next to Woodland. It's the only reason I know.
Yeah. All right. Well, fucking whatever. I don't care. I still bet CU and he's qualified too. Like, man, I really thought Woodley wasn't qualified though. I don't give a shit, dude. He's a major winner and he is down here with these guys. Six last year. Six place here last year. Yeah. Good Florida swing. Like, yeah.
Give it to me. And if it wasn't for that, he couldn't get out of that goddamn bunker, which is a problem in my brain. That's fair. Yeah. Like it could, I talked about that with person. I was like, listen, it's a bad last image of him not being able to get out of that fucking bunker when he had contention to win. When I'm just telling everybody, I'm like, you need to be good out of the Santhia. But I don't give a shit. Like it's a good number for a good golfer. He looks like himself. Like, yeah, dude, listen, give me, give me what, like this number should be way shorter.
way short anyone else in this like there's a couple guys like i was looking at there's a vegas 60 it's not bad it's not bad right he just finished fourth in putacana um i don't i don't love him at like 40 which i've seen him at but i had access to a 60 this morning and i was eyeing that pretty closely
Yeah. So Vegas has always been one of my guys. And I think it's because I watched him drain that wicked long putt at TPC in person. Yeah. And, and like, he's just been one of my guys since then. Like he's always a first round lead at bat for me. I'll definitely always sprinkle. And look, he's, he's a monster off the tee. He's another one who's not good around the green. I know he,
He does everything. There are a lot of guys this week where they check like three out of the four buckets and Vegas is another guy where he dominates par fives. Great driver of the ball. Great mid-arm player. Bad short game. Yeah. And at that short of a number, I'd rather just take somebody else who checks three or four boxes at fucking double the odds.
So who, like anyone else in this range, before I start talking about some of these guys between 70 and one or between 60 and 100, the numbers, the numbers are all across the map. Yeah. Yeah. That's pretty much talk about anyone. Yeah, exactly. So can you explain to me why Davis Riley is like 66 to 75 to one? Did you know capper? It was circulating around Twitter this morning that he won a corn fairy tour event on this golf course.
But wasn't that not the same course? Is there multiple courses there? I actually know this was this course. I believe that it was the Oaks. I'm being like semi facetious. I have no interest in Davis Riley. But I think the fact that, you know, he was in the mix at the Valspar and he has won at this course before.
I guess. I don't know. No, absolutely not. So I like Russell Knox. That's another guy who I bet. I got him at 70. Okay. And if the wind's going to be up, it all depends on the tee time breaks too, right? And we're a couple of days away. Who the fuck knows? But it looks like the wind's going to be better for a AM PM stack. Shit. Have you looked yet? Yeah, I already looked.
Is it going to be another one of those fucking weeks? I generally like, I don't even want to stress myself out with the weather until like midday Tuesday. So me too, but I know I was coming on here tonight, so I had to have my ducks in a row, right? So,
I texted Steve because I don't do all that. Fuck. I'm like, Steve, tell me what, tell me, Steve, Steve, Steve, what does this wind to the north mean? And then he breaks it down for me. And, and, and so AM PM stacks because both afternoon waves are going to get wind, but the second day of wind will actually help the golfers based on the holes they're playing. According to Steve. So, yeah, my,
My problem with that is like the way that I, the way that I bet is I hunt the numbers that I think are going to move early on in the morning. And I generally have a pretty good sense of what numbers are going to move. Um, and I can't, I like, I can't factor in wins, but it plays a massive role in, in DraftKings.
Yeah, but even on a betting, even on betting, you're right on Monday. I know, but my betting card's done by Monday at 10 a.m. is what I'm saying. So you've got to give yourself wiggle room. Listen to the fucking numbers I have when we get down here. Fine.
fine. I have guys that like double the number that they're at right now. And trust me, it's not me moving those numbers. Cause I don't bet pick. So I just, I'm telling you, I have a pretty good beat on where these numbers are going to go. Okay. You have to be early. And so the way that I, and my investment to DFS is just as much as my investment to betting. So I always figure my strategy is like, okay, I'm just going to bet the guys that I want to bet. And then in draft games, I'm going to,
I'm going to go crazy on, on the weather drops. Okay. That makes sense. So my, so I used to be heavier DFS, less betting. I have gone the opposite way. I am. Yeah. I am heavier on betting than I am on the DFS. I feel like, and I feel like it's just because like, I'm not MME in tournaments. Like I'm not like, like it's about like contest selection for me. And like, yeah,
Certain tournaments where I feel comfortable with or I feel like I can get a beat on that I'll go a little heavier on. But I grind matchups. Yeah, me too. You know what I mean? Finishing positions, yeah. That's where I make all my money. Really, me too. It's the matchups for me and it's...
So in a DFS to me, it's just such a fucking crap shoot, man. Like it's tough. You're not winning the GPP. Like, unless you're, I hate to, I'm not one of those guys who cries about the fucking, the MME, like you get 150, you still got to get the fucking combo. Right. You know what I mean? But I'm just not, I'm just not willing. I'm not willing to put myself out there for that. Like, I just know what a shit show golf is to begin with. Like I'll do like some single entry higher dollar tournaments and that's it. Like whatever, like where you can, where you can afford to make a mistake and still cash.
I'm with you. I think we probably play a lot of this same contest. I have a very similar philosophy with that. All right. So who else in this range? Do you want me to give you one? I'll give you a guy. Give me one. Come on.
I like Pat and desire a lot this week. So really, really hold on. Like, come on. What are we talking about here? I've been running around all day. You got to give me the, the low down. Is he, is he a popular guy? Cause I've been talking, I've been talking to people and he's not popular to the guys that I talk golf with. So fucking he's,
He's all over Twitter. He's like, I don't know. He's anywhere between 15% to 20% owned in DFS. And BK, it was one of BK's plays. Well, I know it's one of BK's plays. I know what BK is doing, okay? But I didn't think that. All right. Okay. Well, listen. Look, the reasons are fine. The reasons are good. It's 60 to 1. It's fine. Like, who cares? It's 60 to 1. Yeah. Yeah.
It's a great number that you caught a book sleeping at. And if, listen, the golf community as a whole has gotten much sharper. You know what I'm saying? Like, we look at stuff. How many community wins have we had in the last fucking year? Yeah. No, I know. I'm not, listen, no. I'm not scared of that. I'm just surprised. I didn't, I thought that,
Not to say that I was going to be sneaking up on anyone with that pick, but I didn't. I thought I would think that more people in this range, to be honest with you, would be all over Charlie Hoffman, Luke List, even Brendan Steele, who I also like, Jonathan Vegas, right? Like even as we go down. That's why I was a little bit surprised about Kazire, but you're right. I mean, if people are on Kazire, good for them because I think he's going to play great.
So I'm looking at my offshore right now because I has been steamed down to 50. Yeah. Makes sense. He's 50 on he's 50 like Vandal DraftKings too. Yeah. I mean, look, he's got good Florida swing, like good player, like everything, all the boxes that we, you want to talk about, he checks at least three of them.
Yeah. And then all these other, like, so for example, like I bet Brendan Steele at 80, I'm seeing him at 50 now. I bet Saheet the Gala at 100. I'm seeing him at 50 now. I bet Kevin Streeleman at 75. I'm seeing him at 42 now. Yeah. It's, and it's, it is funny, man. I think we talked about this the last time we did one of these and it's just like,
It is a Twitter echo chamber, but at the same point, so if everybody who is in the Twitter echo chamber is betting the same shit, the number is going to be steamed to fuck down. Like it's just going to happen. Right? So, and you're right. So you're a hundred percent right. Listen, bet my guys early. So I typically do like,
I do four outrights. I try not to do more than five because I want to talk to Steve. I want to listen to what you have to say. Like, I want to see somebody who I'm missing and I don't give a shit if I missed 10 points because you know what to me, money is money. Like, I don't care. Oh, you got them at 35. I got them at 25. I don't give a fuck. Guess what? Still money in my account. I don't care. Yeah.
You know what I mean? Yes, I do. 100%. So I like to give myself some wiggle room on the carpet because before I was doing the podcast, I'm a complete degenerate. I just bet. I had no fucking thing about it. I just bet. No rules, capper. No rules. No rules. I had no rules. And
And I've made – you know what I mean? Like I just went nuts. I was like, oh, hold on. How much do I have in fucking a golf outright this weekend? What am I doing? So you start to learn how to do it. So I try to make myself – I try never to go more than six. Sometimes I'll stretch to eight. It all depends on how much money you're putting in. Well, yeah. It also depends on the numbers. Like the people that –
I have nine guys this week, and the people that are like, oh, you're betting all these outrights. You're a fucking idiot. I bet three guys last week, and the math works out the exact same in terms of exposure to win rate from three guys versus nine guys. It's just that all my guys are over 50 to one. People don't get that. I bet three guys last week, and one of them was 14 to one. It's basically just a math equation. Yeah, but
I agree with you. I think that this is probably a week, right, where I'm just taking a lot more shots down the board. I think the narrative... And that's perfectly fine. I think the Masters... I think it's a real fair narrative. And you know me. I'm very numbers-based. I'm not a narrative guy. But I...
I would prefer them not to be in the masters and I would prefer them to, you know, you know what I mean? But that's okay because the numbers back that up for the most part. Like guys who win. Seven of the last nine. Yeah. Is it really seven of the last nine? Yeah. Seven of the last nine, the week before the masters haven't been in the masters. And also I believe seven of the last 10 winners here have been above a hundred to one.
Yeah. So, and so I'm the same way. So like when we try to break it down, like we had questions and I slack channel, like, Hey, how do you build your cat? And I'm like, listen, everybody's different. And it just depends on your bankroll and this and that. Like I'll pick a number that I want to hit for the week. And that's how I do my outrights. Like if it's, if, if Woodland's 35 to one, I'll bet whatever, fucking 50 bucks to fucking make 1500. Right. I know the math's not right on that. Right. But then I'll also bet.
fucking $13 on Svensson. I'm not putting $15. I'm not putting $15 on Svensson to win because I don't think the odds are the same. So it's a balance. You're right. It's a balance thing. And you can have a bigger car, the smallest car as you want, man. Like when we talked about it a couple of weeks ago with Rahm and the football bet, it's like, dude, what do I got to do? Now that Hideki's out, I got one spot. Do I just football bet Rahm or do I...
Just kind of wait. You're probably in a pretty dark place if you're spending a lot of time criticizing other people's cards on Twitter. Who does that, by the way? You'd be surprised. No, I know. That's what I'm saying. Who are these fucking people? They're the worst. They're the worst. Okay, so real quick. We're going to divulge real quick. All right, so I want your take on the slap, and then I'm going to ask you
a question on top of the slap. The slap last night. Did you watch it? Yeah, I did. I'm a big movies guy. I like watching it live. I was watching it live. Yeah. I watch it live. I like, I like the Oscars. I watched it every year. I love the Oscars. I bet on it. I hit Coda. Dude, I hit Coda too. I do Coda. Listen,
I don't give a shit That movie was one of the most teary movies It was good So good It wasn't my favorite of the year But I liked it a lot What was your favorite movie of the year?
I'm a Paul Thomas Anderson guy. I fucking love the licorice pizza. That's fine. I love Paul Thomas Anderson. Boogie Nights is like my favorite movie of all time. I'm just totally in the tank for that guy. Yes. So I haven't seen it yet, but I like Paul Thomas Anderson too. Oh, it's good. You'll like it. Yeah. So, all right. So you wanted that to win, but Koda, it was- No, but I bet Koda because talk about getting steam. Like I got Koda at like five to one. Some people got Koda at like eight to one. What? What?
What? CODA was like 30 to 1 a couple months ago. Yeah, man. It had a late... There was a big ground swell with CODA last minute. And the reason that everyone was talking about CODA... I can't believe we're doing this right now. But the way that Oscars work with preferential balloting is that the Oscar voters have to rank...
The movies from like one to five. Yeah. And so a lot of people, a lot of the Oscar, I listen to movie podcasts and a lot of the movie podcasts and a lot of the podcasts that I was listening to were saying like,
people really like Coda. They may not love Coda, but they really like Coda. So a lot of people are going to put Coda at two or three. And a lot of people fell asleep during power of the dog. Like myself, I nickname it power of the nap. Um, if you got, I hate,
If you got through longer than 27 minutes of that movie without falling asleep, there's cocaine in your system. There's no way that a person can get through more than 27 minutes of that movie without taking a nice nap. And it was a fantastic nap. I woke up around the hour 40 mark and really enjoyed the final sequence. The final minutes. Nice.
but that was enough for me to say, Oh, that's a really good point on Coda is that the second and third place finishes are going to add up. Yeah. So I, I didn't even get five to one, dude. I got fucking like three to one. Cause I'm always late with the shit anyway, but I mean, it was, it's, it's about like diversity and everything else with the Oscars to push. And it was a great feel good story. Like, I mean, not really, I guess, but it was like you, I do. I like, it was just such a,
It was such a touching movie that you can't watch that movie and not be touched. You are soulless if you don't watch that movie and you're touched. And the other crop of movies this year, I just, I think there were- Oh, I like Belfast. Belfast was awesome. I love Belfast.
You know, I didn't see that one yet. It's on my list. It's like $40 on fucking Amazon. Yeah. It's like the only one that's not streaming. Right. Yeah. I haven't, I haven't seen, I usually try and knock out all the movies before the show and I couldn't this time, but I'm Belfast is absolutely on my list. So the slap, the slap real quick before we get back to this.
I don't think it was staged. I guess. It's definitely not staged. People were saying it was staged. I didn't see that. Those people smoke crack. Fucking my, my, my, I want your take on like how bad, how bad does Will Smith look and how, what a consummate professional Chris Rock was. He took a fucking slap that looked like, Oh, you're taking that angle with it. I feel like Will Smith, like, I think he raised his stock. Oh,
Oh, fuck Will Smith. He couldn't think of fucking joke. Are you serious? His wife's been getting banged by half of Hollywood fucking for the last 20 years. And, and Chris rock, one of the greatest comedians of our generation or my generation fucking came up and made a GI Jane joke. And that's what he chose to do it. And he fucking laughed at the joke at first. He,
He laughed at it and then turned to his wife and he saw that she rolled her eyes. It was even a playful roll of his eyes. And now Mr. Will Smith fucking, I have to figure out how to act like a real man. What would a real man do? Oh, I guess I'm going to get up there and slap him. You can see Chris Rock was even like, oh no, oh no. Like he thought it was a bit. And this dude suck a slap, this dude on stage while he's getting paid to perform because he couldn't take a fucking joke. Are you fucking kidding me? Like he is the biggest, biggest,
Pussy bitch. Like, I, I, I'm fucking believable. And he got to go sit back down. He didn't get escorted out. He just assaulted somebody on stage and Chris Rock literally took the slap and
You could tell he was a little shook up and just kept it as a consummate professional and kept the fucking show going while Meltdown Will is mad because fucking he's a cuckold. And that somehow is the breaking point for him. A G.I. Jane 2 joke. Fuck you, Will Smith.
Oh, dude, like just the balls on him to get up and slap another comedian who's getting he's not another comedian, but a comedian who's up there. And it was such a mild joke. And you can even see Chris Rock at the end go, I could have. And, you know, he was just like the backstory about how his wife's been really public about. I'm not saying I disagree with you. I'm just saying that you under you know, the context. Right. I'm not. That's why that's why I said, like, listen, you're mad about half of Hollywood banging your wife.
and everybody making fun of you for it. And now the GI Jane joke is your breaking point? And you're gonna go up and slap this dude? - Do you think he maybe looked over at his wife and saw that she was really visibly upset? - Well, she wasn't really visibly upset. She did one of those like fake- - Oh, we don't know that.
She did one of those fake eye roll, like white things. And even if she wasn't, it doesn't matter. You can't get up there and do that. Don't be body language guy. We don't- Fine, fair enough. Fair enough. I hear what you're saying and I'm not saying I disagree with you by any means. I think the whole thing was funny and I don't really have a take other than I don't, I don't think it was staged. I thought it- No, definitely not staged. Definitely not staged. Definitely not staged. My whole thing was just like,
I couldn't believe how well Chris Rock handled the whole situation. It was amazing to me. And that Will Smith is a fucking baby. And what'd you think of his speech after? It was fucking insane. It was weird. It was so rambling and made no sense at all. The Williams sisters were like, what the fuck is happening? He possibly could have ruined his career on the best night of his career.
Yeah, because it was like this meta moment where he was like talking about it and apologizing without really apologizing. And he tried to relate it back to the character that he played about protecting his family. Defending my family. Oh, yeah. From a shitty joke from somebody who was made jokes, worse jokes about your wife and you in front of you prior to that. And now you're going to get slapped. No, I'm with you. I feel like a lot of people walked away. Think like.
High on Will Smith though Those people I don't think it hurt his career Yes the most normal people in the world Are like this guy is the worst And he gets up there and crying talking about I want to be a vessel of love after he just walked up And slapped somebody because he couldn't take a fucking joke
I'm with you. I'm not yelling at you. No, no, no. My only pushback would be, I think people fucking love Will Smith because a lot of the movie podcasts that I was listening to, they were talking about ratings this year at the Oscars. And they're like, the only reason that a lot of people are tuning into the Oscars is because they want to see Will Smith win an Oscar. That was a big talking point heading into the night was that, okay, Will Smith is finally going to win an Oscar.
I haven't seen King Richard or whatever. It's fine. You'll like it. It's fine. He should have got it for Ali. Maybe it's a makeup. There's a million makeups with the Oscars. I don't know. I thought Will Smith came off like a bitch and can't take a joke. He slapped one of the best comedians ever.
In the world. And he made it. It was such a playful joke, too. Like, he doesn't. Even if she has alopecia, who gives a fuck? Like, it doesn't matter. Like, all the jokes everybody makes about stuff. Like, I don't know. It just gets bad. All right. So my follow-up question before we get off on the tangent. So because of the slap, if you could slap one group of people on Twitter,
there are a lot of good answers for this i think there are a lot of subsects of golf twitter that i just have no interest in when it gets into like a where did it cross thing like when people were people were like arguing about like the burger situation i just i've got i'm out i just i don't give a fuck like i just have no interest in that shit um
DraftKings is unfair. I just don't give a fuck. Arguing about how we fixed the system of withdrawals. I'm just out. I'm just out on those conversations. So that'd be who you slap?
I don't know if I'd slap them. I'm not, that's the point of figurative slap. Yeah. I just like, we don't put out, we don't put out violence on the inside. I don't know. Is there, is there a better answer? Am I missing it off? Oh, you think maybe like,
Card economy Twitter. NFT Twitter. That is a better answer. That's a good answer. That is the worst. Even if I liked your product, you are the most obnoxious salespeople in the entire world. I don't want to buy your product anymore. End of story. With the people like blank.eth, Ethereum, which listen, I'm sure there's people that are listening that are huge into NFTs. I just don't get it. I think if I was early to...
to the party and somebody really explained it to me and I took the time to learn it and I really saw an opportunity to be profitable, I'm sure I'd love it, but I just missed the boat on that one. So now I just don't care. Didn't get it just like I didn't get top shot. And I was like, nope, not doing that either. Like no idea what this is about. Nope. Can't do it. One guy that I didn't get for a while that I kind of get now is Mito Pereira, who is
Oh, I fucking caught some of the professional. How's that? Yeah, he's, he's, I got him at 75 to one. I've seen him as low as 50. Um, I'm like firmly anti-mito at 50 to one and below, but listen, above 50, you know, I talked about him a little bit on my Sunday show, so I'm not going to belabor the point, but I think he is just the perfect example of, um,
The stats are way better than the results are so far. And if you are of the belief that the results will catch up with the stats, then I think he's a good bet at 75 to one. He rated out really fucking well for me at this course. He does a lot of the shit that I'm looking for. And he just played well at the bounce bar, but not quite well enough that he's going to be super steamy. So I like the 75 on Mito. If his name is,
was Chris Clifford. Would you still be so in love with Mito Pereira? Well, I've never been one of those guys that I always push back on the Mito love to begin with. I've hopped in when the original Mito lover started packing out. Yes. So I know, I don't know what it is about Mito. I don't, it's gotta be the name and the stats and,
I don't know. Is he charismatic? Has anyone heard him give an interview before? Dude, if I fell over him tomorrow, I would have no idea. Yeah, I saw him on the putting green at Riviera. He seems just like a dude. Like a normal guy. Yeah, normal guy. What about you? Who else in this range before we give some absolute bombs? I think that's it for me as far as in this range. Like I said, I like Knox. Good wind player. Really good form. There's really nobody else in
Like I almost like skipped over this range. It was just, it was just knocks it at 70. That was it. And then I just went to bombs. All right. I'm with you. Let's talk about these 100 to one plus guys. Um, well, I already met, I didn't really talk about Saheeth. I got Saheeth at a 100 to one. He's 50 to one. Now I love Saheeth. It's just a pure talent play. Um, I don't think you should be a hundred to one in this tournament. And obviously that got corrected. I think he's talented. I like the course fit. Um,
I actually like TPC Scottsdale as a comp. I think that a lot of the same things that you have to do here, you have to do at TPC Scottsdale. And there's a lot of crossover on that leaderboard. Same agronomy on the greens. Yeah, same greens. And he almost won at Scottsdale. So I like to heat that 100 plus. And then I have like two or three guys that I want to mention. But you go first.
so i wish i could have got to eat that honor i would have absolutely bet that yeah absolutely bet that like what a great story i had no skin in the game on him pretty sure i had somebody who was in the hunt by the way for listeners out there like if you still have access to like an 80 like i absolutely endorse that yeah no no thanks on the 50 but like 75 plus fuck yeah yeah fuck yeah all day um so my my bombs are b smith who we already talked about um
We talked about this, but I think you talked about it on your other podcast. I don't have anything to say about me, Smith. So it needs to be like a good form. I don't know, man. It's back to back, man. So so needs to play good, man. Like he's been fine. And dude, he's 125 to one. We pull it up. That's the wrong one. That's Spenson. We'll just go to Spenson then.
the, uh, so Spencer, Spencer, Spencer at one 25 to one. Uh, I mean, look, he's a decent form. Not great. He just missed the cut at Corrales, but who knows like top 10 at the top 10 at the Honda. He missed the card at the API, you know, top 40 at bounce bar. He's a good long iron player. He's good out of the sand. He's talented. Yeah. He's talented. He's, he's, he's another one who's bad around the green. Just worries me here. Um, but yeah, I like him at that. Um,
I want your opinion on Hickok. He should be good. I know he should be good here, but he's not. Yeah, you know, I saw that too with the course history was he like missed both of his cuts. You know, I liked he was huge at the Valspar, right? Like everyone was hammering him at the Valspar. And I guess he finished like middle of the pack. Nah, there's other guys like he's, what are you seeing him at?
So I got him at 150 right now. That's good. I was looking at him at a hundred. Yeah. So 150, like, man, I just feel like he should be, I feel like he should be good here and he's not like, it just, it's,
And he's been lurking lately. Like he's been, he's been lurking. And like, I wanted this kid to win since he lost the, I call him the goober Harris English. Like, like I, like I just want, I want it. I was rooting so hard for him because that guy needed the victory more than Harris English did. You know what I mean? So I don't know. I guess he's like one of the, probably a soft spot for me. Somebody tweeted today.
Harris English is really working hard to make a comeback for the Masters. I laughed. I was just like, who is this for? Who is monitoring this situation? No one. No one is. No one is. Absolutely no one. All right. So I was talking about Nismith, right? So he's kind of steamy on DK. But third at the Valspar,
uh bad draw uh on the players 25th at the honda 55th at genesis like listen you can you can do worse at 150 to one like it's good you know what i mean 150 to one how is a guy who's been in this type of form 150 to one no i endorse it i endorse it 150 all right let me give you i have two more that i really want to actually three more quickly
So I'm probably going to parlay Alex Smalley 100-1 with Duke to win the title. Oh, yeah.
You're just, you're going off. You're, you're leading a hundred percent into this now. Yeah. I'm leaning a hundred percent. Yeah. Fuck. Yeah, I am dude. I'm sorry. Like what the fuck? Sorry. You're, you're a Duke alum. You're a Duke alum. So here's the thing with Alex Smalley. I'm going to get Alex Smalley on the pod too. Um, he's, he seems like a good guy. He's good, man. He just, he almost just won in, in Puerto Rico. Yeah. Yeah.
It's a limited sample size, but one thing I noticed about Smalley, super, super accurate off the tee. He keeps the ball in play. He's already had some nice success putting on these overseeded Bermuda greens. By the way, I think the Duke course gets overseeded at this time of year. I think it does. I could double check on that when we get off, but I would imagine that it gets overseeded in the spring.
But Smalley's good, man. I like Smalley a lot. I'm like semi-joking on the Duke thing, but they're going to win the title. We all know that. First of all, it's crazy. Duke and UNC for the first time ever? Yeah. It's weird. Are you like a conspiracy theorist? Because I was hearing a lot. I mean, people just love to shit on Duke, but I was hearing a lot of ref involvement.
Listen, man, I can't. As a Patriots fan, I can't even almost get involved in this conversation because everybody cried about the Pats for the rest for so long. We're the Duke of the NFL. So I can't. I feel like the Cowboys are now. No. What the fuck was it? Cowboys did anything. Fucking 93. Fuck off. No, I hear you. Yeah. When you start blaming the refs, it's a loser's lament. That's it.
By the way, are you guys allergic to spending money this year? What's the deal? I don't want to talk about it. Does Belichick just have years where it's like, the Rams are out here fucking paying everyone. Here's your extension. Here's your extension, Jalen Ramsey. Bro, we don't even have an offensive or defensive coordinator. He's not naming an offensive or defensive coordinator. We brought back fucking Matt Patricia and fucking Joe Judge.
What are we doing? What? Belichick still thinks he could do it. Like, Oh, it was all me. You just didn't happen to have the greatest quarterback of all time on your team that was able to hang up with your band-aids and like make up for all your shitty GM decisions and your terrible fucking drafting and your bad free agent signings. Like it's bad. It's bad. It's bad for the Patriots. Listen,
Whatever, man. I root for the laundry. It is what it is. But Belichick is really wearing me fucking thin. The Dolphins are out here like, hey, guys, here's Tyreek Hill. The Patriots are out here like, hey, guys, here's Ty Montgomery. He could be a good kick returner. He'll be fine. He'll be fine. Special teams are very important, Andy. I don't know if you knew that or not. They did. They sunk the Packership this year. Aaron Rodgers sunk the Packership because he's a fucking loser.
All right. What? Okay. Who else do we have to talk about? I'll give you one guy. I think JJ spawn. I bet JJ spawn at 210 to one to 10. Yeah. You have my interest at two 10. How's that? Why would you bet? So why would you bet someone to 10? Have you looked at his numbers with JJ spawn? Do you, do you think I looked at JJ spawn?
I don't know if he popped for you at all, but so he gained like 8.7 strokes ball striking at the Valspar. It's the best ball striking week of his career. And I look at how he's... Sounds like a good time to get on him. Yeah. And I don't think it was an anomaly. Like he's been playing sneaky well for a while. He's 123rd out of 100 and how many people are in this out of sand saves. And he's 92nd around the green.
Okay, what sample size are you looking at? Like how many rounds? 24 probably. All right. 50, 50, 50. Yeah, well, 50. That's a lot. All right. I mean, let me see what I have on that.
Yeah, okay. I have him at 90th and 93rd. But, hey, when you're 16th in greens and regulation gain, 16th in good drives gain, 11th in par 5 scoring, and top 30 in approach, and top 30 in all the proximity shit that I'm looking at, and you've been good at Phoenix, and you've been good at TPC Summerlin, and you've made the cut here before, and you're 210 to 1? Why not? Listen, like...
You can't shit on somebody's 210 to one pick. It's 210 to one. If you hit it, you get the lap. Like, who cares? And if it misses, you're like, it's 210 to one. Who cares? Yeah. So that was the only guy that I bet down here. I like Martin Laird a lot. I always like Martin Laird. I play Martin Laird every week. So I'm going to continue to play Martin Laird. Hasn't he won here? Yep. And he's won at Summerlin. And he's been fucking awesome at Scottsdale. He's a good play.
He was 100. I just couldn't fit him because I went... I just didn't have room for him. And when I saw the Saheith 100, I couldn't fit him. Yeah, Saheith 100 is money. I'm going to play Laird in DraftKings. In DraftKings. And then the only other guys I talk about, I'm not going to... I don't have room to bet these guys. I mean, they're super, super long, so you can always...
say that you do have room, but Danny Lee, I'm going to keep playing in draft. What's with you and Danny Lee, bro? He's good, man. That guy is this fucking complete psycho. Well, you're a first round leader guy, right? Yeah. Oh, I love Danny Lee first round leader, but for this week, take it this week. All right. I'm telling you right now. All right. I'll take it. Just take it this week. Have you seen Danny Lee play golf recently? Do you know that he's trying to do the Bryson thing?
He's swinging out of his fucking shoes right now. Is he really? Yeah. You'd have to like research videos of like Danny Lee playing golf to like confirm this, but I you'll catch him on PGA tour live, like once in a blue moon. And he started to do this when he was in contention at Bermuda was the first time that I noticed it in the fall. He's trying to, he's picked up a fuck ton of distance, but this is, this is a guy who's just to me, like,
I feel like I played him the time he like eight putted on a fucking green and just picked up and walked off the fucking course. Yeah. He withdrew from the players with like two holes left in the middle of the round. He's sick. I'm out. And he had gained like nine strokes on approach and lost 12 strokes putting. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Like in draft Kings, here's the thing. Like I'm playing, uh,
I'm playing to win like big contests. So I know that Danny, we can finish top five. He almost just won the Bermuda. And I also know that he can finish dead fucking last and no one else is going to play him. So I'm going to play that guy. I think, and I think other people will take safer routes. Like I don't play Luke Donald too, who I don't think has half the upside, but I think Donald's safer play. Yeah. Yeah. All right. I don't have anyone else.
Did I say, I already talked about Matt Jones, right? 101. Not really, but I like that. Especially if it gets windy. Yeah. It gets windy. Matt Jones, man. Let's go. Yeah. Matt Jones played good. Fucking dude. He almost, I mean, he almost beat Cam Smith. Like what? That was eight weeks ago at this point, but whatever. So played well. 101. Decent course history. Yeah. Wait, did he fucking win here? No. Second. Second. He didn't win, but he, he can win. He pops up. Was it, what was his best finish? It was the second.
It doesn't matter at this point. This pot is running off the fucking rails. All right. What else? Do you have any match-ups you want to give me real quick before we get out of here? What book do you have that has match-ups out yet? I don't, but I know you love them. Yeah, but there's nothing out yet. No, you're right. We got to get the fuck out of here. I got to walk my dog. I don't know how this got so long. Dude, this is such a...
bad omen for the Nagels pod. That's going to be four fucking hours. It's going to be four hours. Easy. Easy. Because I'm supposed to be the referee.
Oh, good luck with that. Maybe we'll make Steve the referee. Let me make Steve. Steve's probably a better referee. The good thing about Nagels, though, that I will say is like if we start talking about the Oscars, he'll just be like, fuck this. I don't care. Yeah, that's true. You know what I mean? So like he won't get like that sidetracked with us in that sense. Maybe we should do an Oscars pod next year, though.
though dude i would be so down i'm not even kidding i should have done it this year dude i'm 100 down so i i was an only child who smoked a lot of weed so i watched a lot of movies i love movies i love the oscars you know what and i think people would like that i did a i recorded a john mayer pod yeah where's the john mayer release the mayor pod yeah so so like my prediction was that
Three fucking people would actually want to hear this. I got like 16 DMs today and a couple of tweets that were like, we want to hear the mayor pod. I was like, oh shit. All right. So there's how your mom got hit on by John Mayer. That's a fucking great. That was a good tease, huh? Yeah. So, so, so I think if there's a appetite for John Mayer and in the golf world, there probably will be one for after the master's week though, after the master's week.
Yeah. Oh, no, no, no. Yeah. I'm going to drop it after mass this week. Yeah. All right. Capper. We're going to be talking very soon. I'm going to be on your podcast next week. What do you have to plug before we get out of here? Nothing. That's a golf game on podcast. You find me on Boston underscore capper. Go to sports game podcast.com for my partner, Steve's all his write-ups and that person writes there too. So yeah, just what's your podcast with Kershner come out. I don't know. Probably dropped while we were on the phone. All right.
All right. All right, buddy. It's good to see you. We'll talk soon, my friend. You too, brother. All right. That's it for the show. Special thanks to Boston Capper. Special thanks to RickRungGood.com. Special thanks to Juice Reel. You can find me on The Scramble Tuesdays and Fridays on the Rick Rung Good YouTube channel. Odd Checker articles Wednesdays and Saturday mornings. And then back on this podcast feed Sunday morning of Valero Texas Open Week doing a master's preview. It's a big one coming up. All right.
Good luck with the Valera this week, and we'll see you next time. Cheers.
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