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All right, welcome in Inside Golf Podcast. My name is Andy Lack, RBC Heritage, betting and DFS preview, and a little Masters recap and some thoughts at the top. We are recording early on a Sunday morning, so the Masters isn't over yet. It's ripe just as guys are starting to get out on the course on Sunday. I have a lot of takes about the Masters.
Let's start here, though. This podcast is presented by RickRungGood.com. A lot of cool things you can do on RickRungGood.com. A lot of data that I'm going to talk about today. You can find that all on RickRungGood.com. Get asked a lot. Where do you get your numbers? You can get them all here on RickRungGood.com. So check out RickRungGood.com. Coupon code slash Andy. It's only $7 for a week.
Type in that coupon code, Andy, see if you like it, and hopefully you'll stick around and stay. All right. What else do I have in my notes here? Massive thanks to everyone that left a review on Apple Podcasts. I was shocked. We got almost 200 reviews. That's still like a very small fraction of who listened, but I'm not complaining. I feel like that's pretty good.
And I will run it back for the PGA championship, maybe with more money, maybe with more winners. If that many people are actually going to do it, then I will give more people an opportunity to win. The guy who did win, shout out SteadyMobbin6 on Twitter. I've already DM'd you and sent you your money. Cheers. Thanks for supporting the show.
What else? Thanks to all others who supported all of the content that I did this week. I know it was a lot. I was really busy. I finally learned the word no around Wednesday afternoon, but we tried some stuff. I enjoyed the major report. Seems like others enjoyed the major report. I'm proud of Joe for...
commandeering that. And I hope you enjoyed it as well. Maybe we'll do it again. Maybe we won't. Not really up to me. But whether you listen to me on here, on the First Cup podcast, on the Sports Gambling podcast, on Tap and Birdie, on Jump the Sharp, on The Fan, on San Diego Local News, The Scramble,
Whatever. Just wanted to say thank you. Got a lot of encouraging messages. Really means a lot. One more thing that I have in my notes is dunk on Jon Rahm. You knew it was coming, especially the ones that have been here from day one. God, that guy is a disaster. And I listened to his press conference on Tuesday and I was like, you know what? That might've been the best press conference I've heard all week.
That was thoughtful, insightful, funny, focused, deliberate. You guys know I'm a big quotes guy. I was like, man, that kind of sounds like a guy who's about to win the Masters. Maybe I'm being a little too hard on this guy. Nope. One day, he's the one man in the entire Masters field blaming his poor play on mud balls.
John, I will play devil's advocate and say that you did get four mud balls. Do not know how that explains the shitty putting. Do not know how that explains the shitty around the green play and how this was one of your worst off the tee performances of the season. Pretty sure you get to clean the ball off before you put it on the tee. You really think Augusta National is going to do preferred lies? Just take some fucking accountability, dude.
That's all we asked for. It's golf. You weren't playing a different course than the 89 other players in the field that weren't complaining. Maybe try playing better. And all this does, in my opinion, because I was worried about him this week. I played him like I play him every week. I thought, I kind of feel like Jon Rahm might win. He gave the best press conference, in my opinion,
He was fully aware of Scottie taking his number one ranking. The stats still looked good. The course history was immaculate. He wasn't getting talked up much. And I just felt like, all right, I kind of feel like we're going to get a statement from him.
Too many mud balls, unfortunately, for John to play well this week. Look, all this does is it ends a really, really stupid conversation that I thought was really dumb back in December. That he was miles ahead of everyone else and he was going to go out there and be world number one for, I don't know, longer than three months.
into the season. I think a lot of people reached the point weeks ago that he was not the best player in the world that I had reached in December. But I still thought, ah, I still think he's dangerous at Augusta. Let's just see. Let's just see what happens at the Masters.
But it's done. That discussion is over. There's no argument. There's no debate. Even the data golf stuff has caught up. Last six months in true strokes gained. Now he's behind Cam Smith, Justin Thomas, Scotty Scheffler, Victor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, and...
That gap probably widens by a healthy margin when either Cam Smith or Scotty Scheffler wins the Masters today. So we can stop having that conversation, which is a relief to me because it's not a conversation I think we should have been having in the first place. I'm not dumb enough to stick a fork in the guy, but let's put this conversation on layaway. Let's put the conversation on layaway. He wins at Southern Hills today.
Okay, let's talk. Hell, he wins fucking anything. Quail Hollow, anything. We can start talking about it again. I'm happy to have that conversation again, but it's done for now. It's not a relevant conversation to have anymore. He's not as good as you thought he was, and that's fine. That could still change, but we got to wait and see. Speaking of not being good,
You thought I was going to be super biased about this one, but I'm going to throw you a curveball. Xander Shoffley's performance at the 2022 Masters, I thought was far more of an embarrassment than Jon Rahm. And I don't understand how you have any other take on it as somebody who watched every shot he hit and went back and watched it again to see if I missed anything. He made one birdie here.
on the 17th hole when he was already not going to make the cut. I liked the turf conditions for him this week. I liked the pairing that he had. I liked his tee time. Obviously, I like this course for him. He's finished top 10 in 50% of the majors that he's played in. This is clearly the type of atmosphere that he gets up for, that he cares about, that he attempts to peak for. He wasn't cursed. He wasn't too popular.
There's not an excuse in the world for Xander Shoffley this week. It's pathetic. I thought it was, like I said, I thought this was way more embarrassing than what Rom did. And to be honest with you, he doesn't deserve to be talked about in the same conversation with Rom. So again, there's no bias here. I felt like this week was an inflection point for both of them and it was bad. So I'm already just a naturally incredibly pessimistic person.
sports fan, being a Knicks fan my whole life. But what a shit performance in the biggest tournament of the year. It's disappointing. I would say the panic meter is at like 7.5. We've got three more majors, but man, this was a good spot for him. And he's got to make something happen, but I got to call it like I see it. And
Just like I kept saying that Rom had zero business ever being 8-1 or 9-1, I don't think Xander's got any business being 18 or 20-1 right now. And you could probably make that argument for a while. You probably could have been making that argument for a long time. So the criticism is fair, most of it. The he will never win crowd. No, we're not there yet. I'm not there yet.
But 95% of the rationale, sane criticism of Xander, I can't defend. I don't think I can defend. So I'm not going to go on here and shit all over Rom without acknowledging what's happening right now with Xander. I don't think that's a credible or fair argument.
take to have as somebody who is a fan of golf and a fan of certain players, but also somebody who gets paid to talk and write about it objectively, despite whoever you root for. Okay, last thing in my notes, I'm going to do a full Masters recap with Powers on the Tuesday show. We'll talk about Scotty. We'll talk about Cam. We'll talk about Tiger. We'll talk about all those things.
I want to get to the heritage in this podcast, but last thing I want to say, I did not have a good DraftKings week. Hand up on that one. 15 lineups, 0 6 of 6s, which is hard to do when 50 out of the 90 players make the cut and about 10 to 12 of them are obviously not going to make the cut.
And I did that, mind you, while playing zero Brooks Koepka and zero Jordan Spieth. I avoided both of those guys and I still got wrecked. 30% Thomas Peters. We'll do that to you. 30% Gary Woodland. Adios. Dead. See ya. Other two guys I really liked in the sixes. Ryan Palmer, EVR, Sayonara. You know, the top core...
was meh, but at least they made the cut. Rom, DJ, Rory, can't lay a fee now. Fleetwood was a good call, I guess. I had Fleetwood everywhere. But I just got the bottom completely wrong. Peters, that guy is just a Nazi. I mean, he'll murder you. And he made it quick and easy too, which I kind of appreciate actually. Woodland...
on Friday made it seem like he was going to make the cut when he eagled nine. Peters at least just made it quick and easy and said, I'm done here. I'm done here on Thursday afternoon. I don't actually think that my strategy with the Bombers was incorrect. I went back and back checked this. I just picked the wrong ones. Like I'm looking at the leaderboard. I'm looking at the top 20 heading into Sunday.
Uh, Scheffler was in my top 20 distance metric. Obviously I played Rahm and said Fleetwood. Yes. Rory. Yes. DJ. Yes. Co-crack. Yes. Zalatorris. Yes. Cam champ. Yes. That was the one I'm kicking myself for. That was the one that I played EVR instead of cam champ. And that was dumb.
Leishman, yes. Even Hudson Swofford and J.J. Spahn, who bombed the shit out of it. And I knew that. I played Palmer and EVR and Peters instead. And Woodland instead. Even Schwartzel, sneaky long. I guess the two guys, and I'll say three, because Sung Jae too, who's fine in distance. But the two guys that I was never going to play...
was chalk Cam Smith and chalk Corey Connors. I was never going to play those guys. And you had to, obviously. I didn't really listen to any other podcasts until after the tournament started. I was just behind and I had a lot going on. But I still kind of wanted to hear...
one or two of the ones I like. And the guy on Golflandia, the one that I actually don't know personally, I believe circling the drain on Twitter, said something that I kind of wish I thought about a little bit more where he was like, yeah, you know, chalk seems to come through a little bit more at the Masters because we have all this information on the course and
And we have enough of a sample size now this year where we kind of know where everyone's game is at. And it's like, yeah, he's kind of right. Sometimes you just have to eat it at the Masters and not try and be the smartest guy in the room with a 4% Abe Anser and a 5% Webb and Sergio. Webb and Sergio were actually good plays, but those were...
Those were all the guys that I said, okay, I'd rather take a chance on any of these guys than play 28% Corey Connors because that's not ever how I play DraftKings. But I think sometimes at the Masters, something I have in my notebook for next year is worry about ownership a little bit less. I don't think you can say, oh,
This guy is just a slam dunk. Play this guy no matter what at whatever ownership. Like Cam Smith, for example. Cam Smith seems super, super obvious after the fact. Like, oh yeah, Cam Smith playing well. You got to play Cam Smith at Augusta. But couldn't you say that about Rom too? Don't you have to play Rom in Augusta? I mean, look at what Rom's done at Augusta. The numbers are insane. What about Jordan Spieth?
Don't you have to play Jordan Spieth at Augusta too, right? What about Brooks? Don't you have to play Brooks at majors? So if any of those three guys were in the position that Cam was in, Rahm, Brooks, or Spieth, we'd be saying the exact same thing. Like, oh, you guys are morons. It's Brooks at a major. It's Rahm at Augusta. It's Spieth at Augusta. Well, none of those guys panned out.
but Smith did. So nothing's ever a slam dunk, but I think I'm going to try and be a little less cute next year. There was, there was a little too much like pivoting. I felt like just for the sake of pivoting, which is never a good road to go down. Just way too much, way too much squeamish niche with some of the builds I was creating. Um,
But that's all I got in my notes. I will talk more with Powers on Monday night when the tournament is actually over. All right. BC Heritage has been held since 1969.
And outside of 2020 and 2011, it is traditionally played the week after the Masters. And the venue for its entire existence has been Harbortown, which is widely considered one of Pete Dye's best work, best designs, which I would agree with. Former winners here, Stuart Sink, 19 under. He was 125 to 1.
He kind of ran away with it. 2020, remember that was in June, the second week after a long COVID layoff, was won by Webb Simpson. Very different turf conditions that year. He won at 22 under at 30 to 1. 2019, CT Pan, 160 to 1. 2018, Satoshi Kodaira, 250 to 1. Shout out BK.
2017, Wesley Bryan, 80-1. 2016, Brandon Grace, 40-1. 2015, Jim Furyk, 25-1. 2014, Matt Kuchar, 18-1. 2013, Graham McDowell, 40-1. 2012, Carl Peterson, 55-1. So I think you can almost throw out the 2020 year. It was, as I mentioned, the second tournament coming back from the COVID layoff.
And it was in June, so the greens weren't overseeded, and it was really wet. So that's why you saw those super, super low scores. Outside of that year, the winning score has really ranged from, you know, 9 to 19 under. Sink won at 19 last year, but he kind of won running away with it. And, you know, it really just comes down to the wind and the turf conditions. The last couple of years, it's been trending in the easier direction.
But by no means is Harbortown a total birdie fest. It ranked right around tour average last year in difficulty, which is what I would expect to see again this year as well. The cool thing about this tournament is that every single player in the field can compete here. And that's why I think a lot of people really enjoy this tournament. We
actually have an awesome field. There are like 14 guys, um, more Kawa, JT, can't lay DJ Connors, web Lowry, Neiman, burger, Fitzpatrick, et cetera. Probably forgetting some speeds playing answers playing. Um, but most of those guys made the cut at the masters. Um,
And I want to see how things play out today before I really take a stand on them. But you're going to get some pretty damn good numbers on a bunch of mid-tier guys because you're going to have to put Morikawa and JT and Cantlay and Webb and Berger and Lowry. Those guys all have to be below 25, especially with Lowry down.
Probably going to finish top 10 at the Masters and has great course history here. And Webb is now returning to a Webb course that he's won at before and is number one in strokes gained total. And he's actually starting to find some form. Like Webb's had a good week at the Masters. But it will be interesting to see where people go with this because yes, it's a good field, but the way that this course is set up,
A Wesley Bryan, a Satoshi Godaira, a CT Pan can win here, right? Four of the last five years, the winner has been over 80 to one. Another interesting thing to note. So outside of 2011, 2020, this tournament is always played the week after the Masters and 11 of the last 15 champions have
have played the week before in the Masters. Wesley Bryan, Tsitsipan, Carl Peterson were the lone exceptions in the past decade. So you'd think normally, okay, letdown spot coming off of such an emotional experience of playing the Masters. Not really the case, right? Historically, it's actually been the players that did play
the Masters who have won here. Now, the players that have played the Masters are also usually the best players in this field. I get it. But Stu Sink played the Masters and won. Same with Kadira, played the Masters and won. Same with Brandon Grace, played the Masters and won. Same with Graham McDowell. And those guys were all guys that played in the Masters, but entered this week 40 to 1.
So you'll have some opportunities there. Just something to consider. All right, let's talk about the course. Harbortown Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina, designed by Pete Dye with some help from Jack Nicklaus in 1969. It's a par 71 measuring 7,121 yards, is the fourth shortest course on tour last year, 18 individual water hazards, uh,
But a lot of the time they don't really come into play. The fairways are Celebration Bermuda grass overseeded with perennial ryegrass measuring 29 yards wide on average. Some of those narrow on the PGA Tour. The rough is Celebration Bermuda grass overseeded with perennial ryegrass 7.75 inches wide.
not even a foot. So no real rough to worry about here. The greens are 37 square feet, Bermuda grass overseeded with Poetrivialis running 11 to 11.5 on the stimp. We are
in April. So we're still going to get that same POA overseed that we get at TPC Sawgrass, Innisbrook, TPC Scottsdale, TPC San Antonio, PGA West, and Austin Country Club that we have been seeing the last couple of months. And I think we know the deal at Harbortown, right? It's a lesson driver course.
It's all about positioning yourself off the tee and setting up the right angle to approach the greens. And, you know, I ran my model a little bit differently this week where I was more concerned with identifying players that have had really good history on the short positional golf courses. There's just...
This is like a certain style of golf on the PGA Tour, and Harbortown is probably the most exaggerated version of this. But your Sony Opens, your Sedgefields, your Colonials, your RSMs, right? These events...
that are all less than driver courses, small greens, usually Bermuda grass, all about positioning yourself off the tee and all about wedge play. And the same guys pop up over and over again because this is just one of the weeks of the year that Kevin Kisner feels like he has just as good of a chance to win this week as Dustin Johnson.
And I really do think that the Webb Simpson types and the Kisner types and the Kevin Na types and the Matt Kuchar types, I really do think those guys are licking their chops this week. We talk about all the time how there's some tournaments where a DJ or a ROM or a Bryson or a Rory start on second base before the tournament even starts. They have such a built-in advantage because of the course that they are playing.
And that's not the case this week. So I went pretty heavy looking at course history and corollary course history, because I think that there are just a certain subsect of players that really get up for these weeks and their stats are never going to look as good because they're forced to play too many long courses that don't really fit their game.
So I spent a lot of time looking at these corollary courses and what players always seem to play well on these lesson driver courses. I want to give you guys some quotes because I think it helps illustrate the point that I'm making. This is from Webb Simpson.
I think you've really got to shape it off the tee. Any hole could be two or three clubs off the tee. I love small greens. I love small targets. Paul said that I'm the worst driver of the ball with a really open fairway and one of the best with a really tight fairway. So example A of why I think it's useless to look at
regular off the tee stats this week. I think you want to be looking at how players perform off the tee on less than driver courses. How accurate you are with a driver at Harbortown doesn't really matter because you don't even have to bring driver if you don't want to hear. Here's one from Jason Day.
This course shows that you don't really need length to make a golf course difficult. For me personally, there's a lot of irons, long irons off the tee, and a lot of three and five woods. There's only maybe four or five drivers out there. There you go. Wesley Bryant, you have to work the ball both ways off the tee.
You have to work the ball both ways going into the green. And it's just one of those courses on tour where you'll see that you have to play every single shot in your bag. Brandon Grace, I like this place. It's completely different. It's short and fiddly.
It doesn't matter if you miss a couple of fairways, a couple of greens. You can kind of get your way around here. Matt Kuchar, it's so unique with tree-lined fairways and the ability to basically recall and remember every hole. You have to play chess around this golf course and position yourself off the tee. If you are offline, it's not that your ball is necessarily in a hazard.
you have a recovery shot, but you will have to be creative. The greens are basically on the same level of the fairway. They're not perched up with bunkers everywhere. You can actually run them up on the greens. They're very small greens. And finally, Jim Furyk. I think it's all about working the golf ball. There's a lot of strategy involved, but
but you have to be able to control the golf ball. You have to hit high shots, low shots, curve it to the right, left to right. It's about hitting the proper side of the fairway. And that may depend day to day with pin placements. So there you go. It's a different style of golf and all the...
All the pros will tell you the same thing. All right, let's run through the stats. Off the tee. So I've already alluded to this. Driving distance here, 267.8 yards historically compared to the tour average of 283. That is comically low. Providing that most players aren't hitting a ton of driver here. Fourth lowest driving distance last year. Every single season has ranked inside the top five historically.
in lowest driving distance. Driving accuracy percentage is still just slightly higher than tour average because despite these fairways being narrow to hit, most players are not hitting a lot of drivers on this course. And every single year,
Harbor Town actually ranks top five in strokes gain off the tee difficulty because, as I've mentioned so many times, it's all about angles and you can't really overpower this course. So you're not going to be able to gain off the tee as easily as you would have just by having distance. You don't have that advantage of being long here. And the other key thing
is that it's not even necessarily about being in the fairway at Harbortown. So don't get too caught up in driving accuracy fairway percentage metrics here and how many fairways guys hit here. This course ranked dead last in average distance of score between fairway drives and non-fairway drives.
And that's because the rough is not an issue whatsoever here. It's really more about being on the correct side of the hole to give yourself the best angle in. So there are going to be times when you're in the rough and you have a much easier angle approaching the green than you would if you were in the fairway on the wrong side of the hole.
Harbor Town ranked 38th in average difference of score from drives in the rough versus drives in the fairway. So it's all about positioning. And so the two things that I'm going to be looking at this week are good drives gained and strokes gained off the tee on less than driver courses.
I want to see who performs well off the tee on those shorter courses. Approach, greens and regulation percentage at Harbortown, well below tour average. It had the 12th hardest greens to hit on tour last year. And in 2019, 2016, it had the hardest greens to hit because along with Pebble, Harbortown has got the smallest greens on tour. So despite the fact that you are not going to have to hit a lot of
long irons on this course, you're still going to miss some greens here too.
Harbortown ranked eighth out of 40 courses in strokes gained approach difficulty last season. In 2019, it ranked first. So because these greens are so small and domed, you have to be really precise with your iron play. 16.6% of approach outs come from 120 to 150, which is above tour average. 20% of approach outs come from 150 to 175, which is above tour average.
And 26.9% of approach shots come from 175 to 200, which is well above tour average. So almost two thirds of all approach shots come from between 125 and 200 yards. So it's a short to middle iron course, right? Not going to hit a ton of long irons here, except off the seat. So you probably want to look most at players that are really good with their short to middle irons.
around the green. So...
Any course with a low greens and regulation percentage, players are going to have to rely on their short game. With that being said, we talked about this with Innesbrook, the actual degree of difficulty of the shots that you will have to face around the green in Harbortown, not very difficult. Last year, it ranked 39th out of 40 courses in strokes gained around the green difficulty. So yes, that's
You will have to rely on your short game here, but this is the polar opposite of Augusta, where the degree of difficulty of the chipping is just so incredibly tough. Harbortown ranked 38th
out of 40 courses last year in difficulty of getting up and down from the fairway 39th out of 40 courses last year in difficulty of getting up and down from the rough and 27th out of 40 courses in difficulty of getting up and down from the bunkers. So again, it's really easy around the greens here. Uh,
But you will have to rely on your short game because the greens and regulation percentage is low. But the degree of difficulty of the chip shots here are not difficult at all. So I'm not really spending a ton of time trying to identify players who are elite around the greens. In terms of putting, Harbortown ranks right around tour average in strokes gained putting difficulty. It ranks right around tour average in difficulty inside 15 feet and above 15 feet.
Honestly, nothing really jumps out to me here. These greens aren't crazy undulating or crazy fast. They're just really small. So if you hit the green, good chance you're going to have a makeable birdie putt. You don't really have to worry a whole lot about lag putting here like you did last week at Augusta. I just think the thing you probably just want to keep looking at is guys who've performed well on these overseeded surfaces. Yeah.
And then I'm not really looking at any scoring stats here. There's only two par fives on this course. It's not a pure birdie fast. It's a technical golf course that you have to work your way around. I did find a large correlation in bogeys avoided, but I would not call this course like a grind fest. So I'm not really going to be looking at scoring stats.
And then calm courses, course history. I think this is the big one. I think for this week, I think identifying these players that always play well in, in this type of golf, right? So outside of Augusta national Bay Hill, TPC Scottsdale, YY, and yeah, that's it. Outside of Augusta Bay Hill, TPC Scottsdale and YY, Harbortown has some of the most predictive course history out of any course on the PGA tour.
And outside of just looking at history at Harbortown, I really want to identify the courses and the players that thrive in this type of golf. So here are the types of courses that I'm looking at. Austin Country Club really comes to mind as another short positional Pete Dye course with similar agronomy. Now, we don't really have...
from the match play. But I think it's one worth keeping in the back of your head. Innisbrook is another good one in terms of its tree-line nature. Same agronomy, not super difficult around the greens. It plays a little bit longer than Harbortown, and you're going to have to hit some more long irons, but that's probably the biggest difference. And via my friend Steve Bamford, eight of the last 12 winners were
at Harbortown all had finished top 10 at Innisbrook. Wiley is another short positional golf course with a lot of crossover on the leaderboards where the same types of players seem to pop year after year, right? Kisner's, Kuchar's, Henley's, all those guys.
And then Sea Island is another really good one. Carolina, short, can get a little bit of wind. Same types of players always seem to pop up at both. And then Colonial is another really good one. Short, positional golf course, that one's bent grass, but that's okay. Still a ton of crossover between those leaderboards. And then TPC Sawgrass as well.
is the interesting one because on paper, that one should almost be the best. It's shorter, positional, peat dye course with the same agronomy. The issue with sawgrass is that water is so incredibly prevalent at sawgrass that there's just a lot of variance. But there's still some crossover there, especially in terms of
the sight lines and the hole shapes that Pete Dye uses. Like visually, if you look at, if you go through hole by hole with sawgrass and how some of those tee shots set up, chances are you're, if you like the way that sets up and fits your eyes, probably you're probably going to be comfortable at Harbortown too. So honestly, 30% of my model is looking at performance on these shorter positional golf courses. And I just think that,
This is such a different type of test. And there are certain types of players that just love these short,
you know, strategic, often Bermuda courses, and they really kind of mark their calendars and say, okay, here's one of the weeks I can compete. So I went a little bit lower on recent form. I'm obviously not ignoring it, but I'm giving a little more leeway to players with a solid long-term baseline on these types of courses this week. Okay. Model. Here's who we came up with. So I put all this stuff together. This was a...
I packed a lot in here. I looked at a lot of different courses, a lot of different putting metrics. Feeling good about this one. All right. Top 20. Number one was Daniel Berger, which is not a huge surprise to me. Number two is Webb Simpson. Also not a huge surprise to me. Number three is Russell Henley. Four is Shane Lowry. Five is Justin Thomas. Six is Joaquin Neiman.
seven Cameron Smith, eight Kevin Na, nine Abraham answer, 10 Tom Hoagie, 11 Patrick Cantlay, 12 Russell Knox, 13 Corey Connors, 14 Joel Damon, 15 Sungjae M, 16 Dustin Johnson, 17 Colin Murakawa, 18 Adam Hadwin, 19 Jim Furyk, 20 Chris Kirk. So I think,
at a course like this, a lot of people are going to all like the same guys, right? I think the Burgers, the Webs, the Russell Henley will be popular again. Shane Lowry will be popular again. Neiman will be popular. Like all these guys, JT, Cameron Smith, Connors,
Morikawa is a perfect course for Morikawa. Even going down the board a little bit, your Chris Kirk types. You can pick. You can kind of pick and choose. There are a lot of really good options, and I think...
At the top, I want to see where ownership shakes out because I think there will be a guy that fits this course really well that maybe does get forgotten a little bit. Maybe that guy ends up being Cantlay. Maybe it ends up being DJ. I'm not sure. Maybe it ends up being Berger, who I probably like the most as of now and hasn't had the best masters. But I'll talk about a couple guys that...
I have that haven't played the masters. I should say that I I'm really eyeing. So Adam Hadwin is, is an interesting case this week because he, I think he might be, he might be mega chalk because he has finished ninth at the players, seventh foul spar, fourth Valero. And at the Valero, he gained 2.8 off the C 4.3 and approach 2.8 around the green loss. One play, two strokes putting.
Uh, so my guess is that he's going to be incredibly popular coming off three top tens in a row. All of these top tens coming on these types of greens and similar courses, uh,
and you're going to have to make a decision on him. He might just be a great play. As I mentioned, I went way too contrarian at the Masters, and it really bit me in the ass. So we'll have to see. But Hadwin's got three straight top 10s, and he's doing it with his ball striking. So you can expect to hear a lot out of him this week. By the way, he was 17% at the Valero at 8,900, and he finished 4th.
losing strokes putting. So you do the math on that one. Maverick McNeely is another guy that people love, but there's so many good options this week that maybe he gets passed to the wayside a little bit. I'm probably going to bet Maverick McNeely this week. He's coming off a 35th at the Valero where he gained 3.9 off the tee, 4.5 on approach, lost 2.8 around the green and 1.9 putting.
I do think this is a good spot for Mav to get his first win. He finished fourth year last year. The recent form is a little bit stronger when you dive into the numbers than the results, I should say, suggest. And he's hitting it so well right now. He's gained over 1.5 off the tee and 3.5 on approach in his last two starts. Even played well at the match play too. So I think he's most likely going to be a bad player.
Uh, we'll have to see what, what price and ownership looks like on draft Kings. I didn't play Chris Kirk at, uh, his mega chalk week at Valero. Uh, he kind of disappointed, I guess. I mean, he was fine. He finished like 35th. I kind of like him more here. I think the ownership will be lower. I think the price will be better. He hit the ball fine at the Valero, just lost 2.9 strokes putting. Um, so I'm curious to see how many people go back to him here. And then, uh,
Kind of two guys, actually a couple guys that popped out to me statistically that are probably going to be a little farther down the board.
Joel Damon was the big surprise to me here in terms of how he rated out for me. He's unbelievable off the tee on these lesson driver courses, incredibly accurate driver of the ball. The irons have been good too. And he's certainly above average middle iron player. The short game is not great, but as I've mentioned, this course is pretty damn easy around the greens.
So I can't say I'm super concerned about that. Uh, he's had some nice success putting on these overseeded Bermuda greens. Um,
And he's had some nice success on some of the comp courses too. So I think he is a guy that you want on these types of courses. And he's coming off a 39th at the Valspar where he gained 1.1 off the tee, 2.2 on approach, lost 2.9 putting. The off the tee got better. The approach got better. The around the green got better as well. And Dahman just kind of fits that JJ spawn bill from two weeks ago where it's like, why is...
Why do I see Domin's name keep popping up? He's been fine this year, but...
I think my number suggests that Dobbin is a really good play this week. So he'll absolutely be a DraftKings play. Maybe a bet as well if I can find the right number. A couple other guys that popped out to me. I'm going to play Denny McCarthy here. He's actually been hitting the ball really well. 1.2 off the tee, 3.3 on approach at the Valero. Got better off the tee, got better on approach. This was actually his best ball striking week.
since the 2020 Wyndham Championship. And he's been trending this way for quite some time too. Quietly, Denny McCarthy, last 12 starts for Denny. This is dating back to the fall swing. 11 cuts, six top 25s, right? So he's been hovering a lot. Now, can he win?
He'd probably need a plus five or a plus six putting week, which he's certainly capable of. But now he's actually starting to be a marginal gainer with his ball striking, and we know what he can do with the putter. This is probably... He can putt well anywhere. This is probably still my favorite surface for him. He has been...
Maybe the best putter in this entire field on these types of greens per round. And he's 14th in courses under 7,200 yards too, right? Eighth at the RSM, ninth at the Wyndham, ninth at the Valspar, 10th at the RSM. So I think this is a good spot for him. Charles Howell is another guy who he finished fourth at the Valero and he gained...
Nine strokes ball striking, lost 1.8 putting. Same with Hadwin. Both these guys, Howell and Hadwin, finished top five at the Valero, losing strokes putting, which is an interesting situation to monitor with these guys that had these peak ball striking weeks. So in his two-decade-long-plus career, Charles Howell, this was his fifth best tee-to-green performance ever.
you know, is he likely to regress? Certainly. Or are we going to have a JJ spawn situation where JJ spawn had the best ball striking week of his career the week before he won the Valero, right? So maybe we are able to identify these players that something clicks from a ball striking perspective. Yet the result isn't as good as you would think because they don't pop or chip well. And maybe those guys found something. Um,
So Howell is a play for me. He's quietly had a good season to six top 40 finishes and eight starts. So I do think at the very least you can trust him in draft Kings and I might look to bet him too, but I think that's it. There are a lot of guys that are playing Augusta on Sunday that I want to take a deeper look at, um,
Obviously, in terms of the top of the board, but that will do it for me. So enjoy your Master Sunday. I would love if Scotty Scheffler wins. I love Scotty Scheffler. I've been banging the Scheffler drum forever, but I also hope that we see
We get some excitement coming down the stretch. So you can find me later this week. I'll give way more thoughts on the Masters with Powers on Tuesday.
And we'll do Scramble Tuesday and Fridays, Odds Checker articles Tuesdays and Fridays. You can find all of my other written work, a more in-depth course breakdown on rickrungood.com will be posted first thing tomorrow morning. So check it out, rickrungood.com, promo code ANDY.
And I hope everyone has a wonderful master Sunday. Good luck. If you're sweating anything, good luck with your bets and we'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same. If you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
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