2022 Mexico Championship Betting & DFS Preview
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All right, welcome in Inside Golf Podcast, Mexico Championship, betting and DFS preview. I think that's what it's called. We'll get there in a second. But first, this podcast is presented by rickrungood.com. It's a fantastic time to sign up because he is actually working on adding a bunch of new stuff. We're doing a huge database update.

And there are going to be a bunch of new tools in the upcoming weeks. So head on over to rickrungood.com, coupon code ANDY. You can also get, also at rickrungood.com, you can get access to all my written work where I wrote passionately this week about the disrespect on the Cantlay-Shawley team from an ownership perspective. There's also an active Slack channel.

Our guy Cody is in there who is on the run of a lifetime. Our guy James, who I hope you know now from listening to that strategy podcast that I put out on Friday. A lot of very smart people in there and you can reach me there for anything you need as well. So there you go. All right. Want to give a huge thanks to

To the listeners of this podcast, I was blown away by the amount of people that listened to the John Mayer podcast. You guys are crazy. That made no sense to me, but I will take it and I'm super grateful and it's encouraging to see that I have not totally pigeonholed myself into somebody that you only want to hear agronomy takes from. My hope was always to put out really different podcasts

and interesting stuff. That's always been my goal from the start. Honestly, there seems like there's a new golf podcast every week.

Um, so I really make a concerted effort to try and always bring something different to the table. You can get picks anywhere. You can get picks for free. You can, you can buy picks. Um, right. So I try and bring something a little bit different. And that was the same kind of idea with the

the DFS strategy pod. I'm glad everyone enjoyed that. That was super humbling, the feedback that we got off of that. And to be honest, both of us after the podcast said,

where we both kind of felt like, oh man, I forgot to talk about this. I had this point that I wanted to make that we didn't get to. So all that's to say, maybe there will be a part two, something along those lines. We'll see. I got a bunch of cool stuff lined up. Going to give a huge tease here. We might have Willie Wilcox on soon. We might. He's a busy guy, but we've been talking a bit because we've got a lot in common.

And his story really meant something to me and resonated with me. If you haven't read that article, I would highly encourage you to check that out. I think it was written by Mark Baldwin. I believe it's on the Fire Pit Collective. It's just really well done. And even if you can't relate at all to his experience, I still think there will be something there for you. I still think you will find some sort of

uh, inspiration from it. Uh, it's, I just think it's really important to tell stories like that. So we'll see monitor the space. I have not watched a minute of this golf tournament. Uh, the Zurich classic is what I'm referring to, uh, until this afternoon. I'm recording this by the way, on Saturday evening.

I will be honest. I was not excited for this week. I, of course, had to meet my obligations for my articles with Rick, my articles for Odds Checker, but it was not really something that I cared about covering on this feed. I will be completely honest about this. I had zero interest in betting this event.

I was not planning on betting this event until probably Wednesday midday where I made one bet on Cantlay Shoffley, essentially out of spite because I was so confused with how little chatter there was about him. Everyone was so excited about Billy Ho and Burns and Colin and Victor and

and Zala Torres and Davis Riley and Guch and Homa and Team Chile, of course. I was even seeing a little Fleetwood Sergio buzz. And it's like, are we really not going to acknowledge these guys because Xander had a bad Masters and can't lay shuffles his feet too much for people? I mean, they were the lowest owned team under 10K, at least in the contest that I played in. That's a fucking joke.

And yeah, I get it. Hindsight is 20-20. Well, I've never wavered on this one, right? You've got two top 12 players in the world. One of them is coming off a playoff loss at the Heritage where he gained over eight strokes on approach, whose games complement each other perfectly, who makes a lot of birdies and should be good in this format.

who are not volatile and are good putters, which matters a ton this week, and play mistake-free golf, who just went 2-0 in alternate shot at the fucking Ryder Cup, who, oh, by the way, are best fucking friends and vacation together and play practice rounds together every single week and know each other's games like the back of their hands. You can find all this stuff online. They like...

They met on like the plane to the president's cup and they played cards for like eight hours and have played practice rounds together every week ever, ever since you, you don't think that stuff fucking matters in this event. Colin and Victor even told us they were trying this out for the first time. They're not playing practice rounds together every week. They're not playing in Ryder cup matches together and neither of them are great putters either.

And I get that Cantlay and Xander are boring. They're not cracking the pip anytime soon. But everyone kept talking about chemistry this week. And the team with the best chemistry, that vacation together, and win Ryder Cups together, and President's Cups together, and play cards with each other, and play golf with each other, and drink wine with each other, and their wives know each other, and their caddies know each other. They're just sitting there. It was right there. So...

I don't really know what else can't lay. I've been talking about this for a couple of weeks now. I don't really know what else can't lay has to prove to show people he's a top five player in the world. I mean, I said the same thing last week at the heritage when he was 12% owned. And if you want to say, ah, I was concerned about Zander's form. Like that's fine. I can get that, but I don't know what it is with can't lay. Um, I, I, I think people just don't like the feet shuffling and he's slow. Um,

I don't like slow play. I don't like watching him either. He's not somebody like I actively root for when I don't have money on him, but he's fucking ice, man. And it's a Pete Dye golf course. And I told you that the Irons came back at the Masters and he's flushed everything since. He's flushed everything since. I don't know if they're going to win tomorrow. I think they're up by five. I think they're up by six on...

Billy Burns, which is the team I... The only team I see as the real threat. I don't really care. Like I said, the bet was made out of spite and principle. So I have no expectation. I had no expectation for it to work out. I'm not going to watch. I wish them the best. And listen, if Xander wins... People are asking if I'm...

This doesn't mean a thing to me. I'm not that dumb and I don't hold other players that I like to different standards. This is not something I'm going to use in arguments about Xander if they close the door tomorrow. I don't care about it one bit. It was just nice to see him play well. And just based on pure eye test, only watching him on Saturday, I

It was like, okay, this is encouraging because as you know, I was very discouraged after the match play and the masters. And when I did my masters recap pod with powers, I was like, I, I wish I had a do over on my December pick that Xander would win at Southern Hills. And powers is like, no, we're riding with Xander. So Xander,

I don't think we should take much from this golf event in general, but it was just nice to see him having fun on the golf course again. Because for a couple weeks there, it just kind of looked hard. I was talking about how much it felt like he was practicing and tinkering at the Masters. It just kind of felt like work.

And at least today when I watched him, it looks like he always had a big smile on his face, which is easy to do when you're shooting 60 and winning a tournament by five strokes. I get it.

But it just looked like there was a pep in his step again. And he actually said this too before the tournament started. Again, I always read the quotes. How much you want to put in the quotes? And we can have that debate on a different podcast. But one thing that I thought was interesting to me about what Xander said, he said, I wanted to use this event to kind of reignite my season because Cantlay brings out the best in me.

And they have so many good memories together playing well together. And sometimes that's actually what it, all it takes when you're in a bit of a rut or a slump is just like remembering how to have fun again. Right. And regardless of outcome tomorrow, I'm glad they had a blast this week. That is what this event is for. Nothing more, nothing less.

All right. I think that's it at the top. Let's talk a little Mexico. So the Mexico open, which dates back to 1944 and is considered Mexico's national championship will appear on the PGA tour schedule for the first time. It's an official FedEx cup of that 500 FedEx cup points to the winner purse of 7.3 million, 132 players in the field, uh,

sponsored by Grupo Salinas. Terrible field, right? A lot of people already making jokes on Twitter about the field, about how, you know, Jon Rahm is...

It's John Rom's to lose and we should just pack it up and head over to the Wells Fargo because John Rom's the best player in this field by a wide margin. Okay, well, how'd that work out for you at the Amex? How'd that work out for you at the Fortnite? How'd that work out for you at the Byron Nelson? Yeah, this guy totally fucking steps on everyone's throats when he's six to one. Give me a fucking break.

I think it's a marvel. It's fantastic that we have him in the field because it will, you know, it'll do what it always does. It'll drop other people's numbers. And can he win? Of course he can win. But guess what, John? You're gonna have to putt here, buddy.

So that might be a problem for you. We know how much you like these courses that weed out the best ball strikers from the worst ones. You know, major championship conditions, Torrey Pines, Memorial. What else? I mean, Augusta to a certain extent, even though he didn't play that well there this year. I don't know about this one. This one is a little bit more...

resort vibes, although I'll talk about, I think it seems like they're making an effort to, to, to beef it up a little bit. So it's called Vedanta Viarta in Mexico. It's a par 71 measuring 7,456 yards.

It was designed by Greg Norman, who's getting a lot of run recently. If you haven't seen the documentary on ESPN+, I think it's called Shark. It's pretty good. Regardless of how you feel about Norman and the Saudi stuff, it doesn't have anything to do with that. It's actually just about his master's meltdown in 86. And I actually thought he came off as...

I don't know if likable is the right word, but I would recommend the documentary. I think it was good. I think you guys should check it out. Vedanta has past pollen fairways and greens, which are a very slow and sticky surface if you're unfamiliar with them. It's a grass that we often see in Mexico, in Puerto Rico, in the Dominican Republic because it's a grass that can withstand the heat very well.

And, uh, VDonta has over a hundred bunkers. Uh, Norman tends to over bunkers courses. So I can't say this as a surprise. It has six lakes. I went through Google earth. It looks like water comes into play on holes. Number one, three, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 14, 15, and 17.

So water looks to be a prominent feature on 11 of 18 holes. And Vedanta has four par fives ranging from 548 to 637 and five par threes ranging from 174 to 226. Five par fours are over 450 yards and three par fours are over 500 yards. So right off the top,

It's a pretty long course. It has a couple short par threes and one drivable par four, but it has a lot of really long holes. So right off the bat, I'm immediately thinking distance off the tee, par five scoring, and long iron play. And you're not getting as much elevation as you got at Chipotle Pack.

And you're not going to get a lot of run out from past Palm either. It's not going to play firm and fast. So I do think it's going to play pretty long. A couple other things to point out. It does seem like they are making a concerted effort to make this course play a little bit harder, which is actually a sign to me that it's not really going to end up playing that hard.

Uh, because they're having to try so hard and all they're using is just length, which again, as always is not what makes courses difficult for PGA tour pros generally. Um, I think it depends a lot on the wind. So I should always caveat with the weather.

But for resort guests, this is a par 73 for the PGA tour. They changed it to a par 71 hole four, which was a par five change to five, a 520 yard par four. That's going to be a beast hole 16, which was a par five got changed to a 505 yard par four, nine holes were lengthened. It was previously 7,287 yards and,

And it will now be played at 7,456 yards. This is all on their website. Of course, their website is in Spanish, so I had to use Google Translate to figure this out. The reason why I say I think it's still going to play pretty easy because I remember hand up on this one. I always admit what I'm wrong. I remember...

BMW that caves Valley events. Um, and I remember looking at the scorecard and the length of the course and the hole by hole images and being like, ah, like this looks kind of hard. Like this looks, this looks kind of tough. And it was one at like 26 under par.

right? So it was, that was another example of a new course that we haven't seen before that you look at the scorecard and you say, ah, there's a lot of long holes on this course, right? But what happened with caves Valley? It was soft. It didn't play firm and fast, right? And it turned into target golf and a putting contest. And so,

I think caves Valley can't lay our guy. Um, I think he won at like 24 or 25 under maybe 26 under, I don't know about that this week again, because I think this course is, is going to be more exposed to the wind than caves Valley. Um, but we'll see, there's some stuff that you can find online about this course. Um,

I was reading a review of the course in Lynx Magazine. Shout out Twitterless Steve for sending that one to me. And the guy talked about how it has extremely wide fairways and a lot of bunkers and waste areas, which you could probably pick up if you just Google pictures of the course. And if you use...

Google Translate on the website, like I said, which I wouldn't recommend doing. That's why I do it for you for the podcast. It's not worth it. But you get a little bit more of a sense. I think I know what I'm getting here. I think it's going to be a lot like the other tropical past palm golf courses that we see. So Cocoa Beach.

which is Puerto Rico open and Corrales Putacana, which both of those courses are over 7,400 yards. They're wide open off the tee, very visually similar, a lot of bunkers, pass palm, um,

I don't think that this is much like my Coba, which I think is the obvious comp, right? Because that's the other past Palm Greg Norman course. That seems like the obvious course, right? But my Coba is less than 7,000 yards. It's like 6,800 yards. It's really narrow. Actually, you don't have to hit driver there at all. And there's actually like a big penalty for inaccuracy off the tee. Whereas I don't, I don't see that here. This course, I think you can bomb away, right?

Um, I've talked to one or two people that have played the course and they said, yes, there's water, but the fairways are still really wide. The greens are pretty large. Um, it was a resort course. So it was, I mean, it is a resort. So it was designed for 15 handicaps, not PGA tour pros. A lot of these courses, a lot of the TPC courses, like they designed them for tournament play. This was designed for resort play. Um,

And you can't really speed up past Palm. I mean, you can try, you could speed it a little bit, you know, maybe you can get them to 11 or 12 max. Um, and there are certain places that you can put pins and stuff on parts of the green that have more slope, but, um,

All you can really do to make this not a resort course is beef up the distance and change the pars, which they have done. And that will certainly prevent this from being one at 25 or 30 under par. But like I said, with the caves Valley example, uh,

It seems like just sheer length and the potential of wind is really the biggest defense that this course has. There is some water. There are a lot of bunkers. But that's, again, that's not really what challenges PGA Tour Pro. So I'll give you another example of this. PGA West, the stadium course.

Pete Dye course has water on every hole and a ton of bunkers. I think at one point, Golf Digest named it like the hardest course in America. And that course would be an absolute fucking nightmare for a 15 handicap. But pros routinely shoot 63 there because it's just asking you a similar question over and over again. Can you hit...

a high draw to a certain spot. And that's what pros can do. And amateurs obviously can't pros get challenged in different ways, right? They get, they get challenged when they lose control over their golf ball, not when they know what they need to do with their golf ball and how to pros lose control with their golf ball. They, they lose it by when the ball hits the ground and rolls from firm and fast conditions. So again, that's a different podcast, but I think you probably want to be looking for players who,

that hit the ball a long way off the tee. I think those players have an advantage because this will be a driver-heavy course. I think long iron play because this course is, you know, there's still a lot of long holes. Good bunker player. There's a ton of sand. They redid all the bunkers. Guys that make a lot of birdies and thrive in easy scoring conditions.

And guys that have some good experience putting on past palm greens or slow greens. And, you know, it's Mexico. Like who needs this one? I think the best argument that you can make for ROM this week is that I think he's fucking pissed off. I will say that. I think he wants a win pretty badly. I mean, he's quote unquote down to three in the world. Um,

So, you know, how do we measure motivation? We don't. But, you know, it's Mexico. So maybe try and think like who's the type of guy that is really gearing up to win this event. But that's pretty much the formula, which is pretty much the same formula at Corrales and Cocoa Beach, by the way. I will say this, you know, just to hedge my bets a little bit.

They talk a lot on the whole descriptions about the wind and how certain crosswinds affect certain holes. I think there's probably universe where this course could become really fucking hard. If there's a ton of wind, I'm not necessarily planning for that and how I handicap the course, but check back, check the weather as the week goes on. I will talk extensively about it in my Wednesday DFS article and,

But if we get a lot of wins, that's really the only scenario that I could see this course playing hard. I feel pretty comfortable that I know how to model this place out, providing we don't get some crazy weather. Okay, let's run through the stats quickly. Okay, off the tee. So as I mentioned, I don't really think driving accuracy matters a whole lot here. I'd rather just look at pure distance off the tee. I do think you can hit driver here a lot.

And I do think you will have an advantage if you can carry the ball a long way because you're not going to get a ton of rollout on past pollen because a lot of these holes are already pretty long to begin with. None of this is to say that shorter players can't compete here, but there are certain courses on the PGA Tour where I'll say...

Okay, some of these longer guys might be starting on second base this week. I think at the very least, distance is going to help. Approach. So when we get very wide fairways...

That places more emphasis on the second shot, right? So I think mid to long iron play here is going to be pretty huge. So we've got five par threes that all measure above 170 yards, five par fours over 450 yards, three par fours over 500 yards, and at least three of the par fives are reachable. So what does that tell us?

you're just going to have a very large plurality of shots over 175 yards. So I think you want to look at those long-term proximity guys, those long-term long iron players that are really, really good from 170 yards plus. In terms of around the green, I don't expect there to be a low greens and regulation percentage this week. The greens look pretty large. I would expect players...

not to have to rely on their short game a lot here if they are having to rely on their short game a lot uh they probably aren't playing very well and guess what when you have slow greens that actually makes chipping easier too right just ask victor hovland the prince of pos palm how easy it is to chip when you don't have to worry about undulation and speed as much

So slow greens are going to remove an element of touch from the equation. That's how it always works with slower greens. There's less touch involved. So I'm not really looking at strokes gain around the green at all. I do think it's worth taking a peek at sand saves. There are a ton of bunkers on this course and, and,

Most of the time, if you miss a green here just slightly, you are probably going to be in a bunker. So sand saves would really be the only short game metric that I think is worth looking at. Putting. So when I was in Mexico over Christmas, I played golf there every day on slow pass palm. I was not a fan of that surface because...

The course that I played 90% of my rounds at my course in California has these rock hard, super fast bent grass greens, which I absolutely love. And that's what I'm used to. So when you get on these slow, sticky past column where you feel like you just have to ram every putt is just, it's really different. You almost have to like change your putting stroke a little bit to adapt. And if you are,

a far more of a die putter like myself, it always feels like you have to ram it a little bit. So I don't really like it. Some people do. I've heard people say it's a lot easier to putt on past palm greens than

And again, I don't love it personally, but I'm sure there are definitely some players that aren't very good putters on fast greens and view fast greens as a million times harder, and they feel a lot more comfortable and love slow greens. I think at the PGA Tour level, it's probably just a preference. I think the reason why you maybe see more bad putters play well on past palm is really less about the speed and probably more about the fact that

Most past palm greens are pretty flat. Um, but Augusta has the most undulating greens on the PGA tour and we see bad putters do well there all the time. Like I said, I think it's just a personal preference thing. So how can we identify the players that seem to like slow greens, uh, more? Well, we don't have any specific metrics on these past palm courses, but, uh,

I wanted to identify players that performed better than their baseline on slower greens. So that can be courses like Kapalua. The British Open rotation generally has slower greens. The previous Mexico event that they had, Chapultepec. So those were kind of the players that I was looking for. That putt kind of, that seemed about better on slower green courses. Scoring stats. I have a pretty...

I have a pretty heavy weight on this category. So I think the par fives are going to be really important. I want to find players that can score on the par fives. I'm looking pretty heavily at birdies are better gained and players that perform well in easy scoring conditions. Like I said, barring something strange with the weather, I think you're going to have to get to 18, 20 under here. So I want to identify the guys that

love these types of weeks, um, that love these types of easier golf courses where you have to go out and make a bunch of birdies. Um, probably some of the corn fairy tour guys, um, they're probably a little bit more used to this because these, this is set up similar to what more of the, the corn fairy tour events look like. And then I was looking a little bit too at how players have performed on long golf courses, because like I've said, um,

The sheer length of this course is probably its biggest defense. And then in terms of comp courses, so I mentioned Corrales Punta Cana, host of the Corrales Punta Cana Championship, and Coco Beach, host of the Puerto Rico Open since 2008. They're both over 7,400 yards, wide open off the tee, past palm courses with generous fairways and slow grades. I think that's what you want to be looking at.

TPC Koala Lampur, I will throw out there as well. That was the host of the CIMB Simb Classic from 2013 to 2018. It's another past palm course that favors distance over accuracy. I like that one a little bit less, especially if we get wind this week. Corrales

has been uh one over the past five years at 18 under and coco beach is usually between 15 and 20 under the reason why i like koala and pearl a little bit less um first of all it's a lot shorter uh it's

barely over 7,000 for 7,000 yards. Um, and that one can get like, that one can get up to like 26, 27 under, and it's, it's more guarded against the wind. And like I said, much shorter than the others, um, like Cocoa beach and Corrales are, you know, you even look at like some of the hole by hole distances and it's, it's just very similar to what you're seeing here. Um,

So that's probably what you're looking at this week. And my guess is it's probably going to play pretty similar. I think you're probably going to have to get to 18 to 20 under here. Again, check back later in the week for weather. That could change, of course. And then if you want to look at some more...

I didn't really do this, but I think it maybe is a helpful tiebreaker if you're kind of deciding between guys. If you want to look at more longish but really wide open and easy golf courses like Detroit Golf Club, TPC Deer Run, TPC Craig Ranch,

Those courses are all like really easy driver heavy courses. You know, I think I probably have that covered by just looking at easy scoring conditions in general. But, you know, I've got no problem if you want to go there as well. All right. Model. OK, so I plugged all this stuff in together and here's who is shot out. This is pretty disgusting. John Rahm, number one, Gary Woodland, number two. Gary Woodland's in the field this week.

Daniel Berger, number three. Lanto Griffin, number four. Tony Finau, number five. Cameron Strangoli, number six. Kevin Na, seven. Chris Kirk, eight. Von Taylor, nine. Pat Perez, 10. He always pops up at these resort courses. Chad Ramey, 11, who just won Corrales Punta Cana and I think finished fifth in Puerto Rico.

I may have that backwards, but he's like the king of these courses. Chad Ramey is Mark Hubbard. Of course, who's an autoplay anytime he's in the field. Um, look at Mark Hubbard withstanding the fact that I'm weighing distance pretty heavily to still pop up as number 12 autoplay. Every time you see Mark cover in the field, um, Aaron wise, uh, who I think will be very popular this week. Um,

I think people like Aaron Wise a lot to begin with. He was high on people's radar preseason, and he's starting to show some signs of life. I could see that being a very popular bet this week. Matt Jones, number 14. My guy, Danny Lee, number 15, who might lead the field in approach. He also might withdraw after two holes. Wesley Bryan, 16, who's...

been popping up a little bit more, I guess. Aaron Rye, 17. Charles Howell, 18, who kind of killed me a little bit at Valero. Alex Smalley, my guy, number 19, who finished second at Corrales Punta Cana. Shout out Duke. And Patrick Rogers, number 20. So...

That's Abraham answer, by the way, for all those asking, you know, he's got the Mexico thing. He was 21. I don't love this course for Abe. I don't, I don't think I love this spot for Abe. All right. It's tough this week. I need to, I'm going to find some great guys. This is a week I should slam. I think I understand this golf course. I know what to expect. It's a lot of guys that people don't know about.

And haven't heard about like, this is a, this is a good setup for me. I like these weeks. Um, I can't say I have like a ton of confidence in anyone right off the bat. Um, I will say this. I think Cameron champ is a situation worth monitoring. Um, this was the best that Cameron champ rated out for me in quite some time.

Now he has one giant weapon here. He's the longest player in the field. And I talked about how I do think you can bomb and gouge this course. He's also the best long iron player in the field outside of ROM, which is not necessarily because champ's a good iron player. It's just because, you know, a 200 yard shot for him is, you know, like an eight iron compared to a five iron for other guys. And he dominates on par fives. So right off the bat,

He's checking like the three major things that I kind of am looking for. Now he out of nowhere, well, some would say out of nowhere because he has played well at the masters before, but in terms of his lead in form out of nowhere, he gained 3.3 off the tee, 3.4 on approach, lost 0.5 around the green, gained 1.2 putting. So he gained 3.

Like 6.7 ball striking at the Masters. Just about what Cantlay did, right? Now, he has been a, before that, before the Masters, he's been objectively terrible with, he's got outside of the Masters, zero top 40 finishes and eight starts this season. But then out of nowhere, he finishes 10th at the Masters and gained 6.7 strokes ball striking in one of the best fields of the year. It's his best ball striking performance since the 2020 CJ Cup.

It's like, whoa, Cameron Champ, where the fuck did you come from? And the reason why I think it's scary, or I guess enticing, I should say, is because you look at Cameron Champ's career, like you look at his lead in form into his wins, and he's terrible. Like he's just objectively bad at golf for 90% of the tournaments that he plays in. And then what will happen is,

It only takes one like decent start for him to get his footing. Like last year, he missed four cuts in a row and was looking like objectively terrible. And then he finishes 11th at the John Deere. What do you know? Gained 6.5 ball striking, same amount ball striking as he did the Masters. And then wins the next week at the 3M Open on a pretty wide open course with, you know, water and length being the only hazard.

It's just, it's very eerily, eerily similar. And same thing in 2019. He was absolutely terrible, terrible. And then he has one start where he gains over five strokes ball striking. And then boom, he wins the Fortinet. And he wins these crappy field birdie fests where you can hit driver everywhere. It's just, it's a situation worth monitoring. I will say that.

in terms of other guys, like I, you know, I like Svensson this week. I think Svensson might be, might be kind of popular. Um, I mentioned how Lanto was number four in, uh, in the model that I ran. That's probably just going to be like a pure numbers play for me. Um,

there was something about Lonto for me this week. And, you know, I'd be curious to talk to some other people if, if they're kind of seeing the, the same stuff with Lonto as I was, I don't really have a great explanation other of why he is so high for me, other than it's a shitty field and he doesn't really have any weaknesses, but we're still talking about a guy who has gone miscut, miscut 53rd miscut in his last four starts. So quick,

Clearly the numbers are suggesting that he might be doing something a little bit better than his results are. And that's always like a, a perfect buy situation for me. And then, you know, getting down to the bottom Hubbard, Smalley, it's looking at Vince Whaley a little bit. I was looking at Brandon Wu a little bit. I was looking at Smotherman a little bit, Michael Thompson, and,

Trey Mullinex. It's tough. It's ugly. I could give you guys a lot of names, but I need a little more time to consolidate because like I said, I think it's a fantastic opportunity this week to get a little squeamish, which I love doing anyway. But I think there are, you know, what are they going to put Rahm at? They're going to put him at like 12.8%.

Is he going to be 30% owned? I don't know. Maybe I'll play him. I don't know. I haven't made a decision yet. It kind of depends because that's why it's a little harder for me to take stands because the field is so bad that I'm worried that my price projections are off and I'm worried that I'm going to look at the prices when they come out and some guy that I thought was going to be 7K is going to be 9K.

or vice versa, or some guy that I thought is going to be 8K is 6.9K, right? I know how I rate these guys. I don't know how DraftKings in the betting market is going to rate these guys. Usually, we're pretty similar, but it gets tougher when there's so many unknowns and there's so many no-brand players. So anyway, that will do it for me.

in and out there short podcast. Um, later this week, uh, I'm going to do a little more, uh, we're going to talk a lot more Mexico. Don't worry. And of course I, I talk all that stuff on the scramble with Rick Tuesdays and Fridays. Um, we're going to stick with the, um, like the DFS at a broader, from a broader picture standpoint thing. I'm going to bring on, um, the guy from fan share, uh,

Michael is his first name. His last name starts with a K and it's quite long. It's like Cavalunas, something like that. He does ownership projections, which is something that I am working at myself. And I wanted to pick his brain a little bit. I wanted to ask him about how he does his projections because he does his projections for fan chair and he's really good at them. And I think fan chairs are really good site.

I'm not sponsored by them at all. In fact, for ownership projections, they're even a competitor for rec, rec run good. But,

I think he's a really smart dude. And so we'll talk some Mexico. But I also will ask him to share, and maybe he doesn't want to share a ton, but he'll definitely share some stuff about how he calculates ownership projections, which I think could be really helpful, right? If we had a better sense of...

of kind of learning how those work. I, at least for me, I, I would find it very helpful and judging by some of the responses that we got from, uh, from the podcast with James, I think maybe, maybe some other people would find it helpful too. So very much looking forward to that. Um, yeah. Odds checker articles, my, my course preview, you know, I, I,

These are the weeks where I really shine, right? This is these were the weeks where this podcast kind of took off a little bit where I would these courses that no one we'd never seen before. And I would just spend the time doing the legwork for them that those were kind of.

Back in the day, what were some of the bigger growth episodes for me? So I cover a lot more of like the nerdy stuff about this course in my article on Monday. I think you got a lot of it though. I think I did a pretty good job breaking it down. It's pretty cut and dry, right? It's resort golf. There's some nuance to it and some stuff that I talked about that I think can be a potentially different angle. But if you want like the...

you know, the more of the stat stuff and, you know, the whole by whole stuff, you can check out my course, uh, breakdown article, which will be posted Monday morning on Rick run good.com.

That's it. Best of luck with your bets this weekend and have a fantastic Sunday and we'll talk to you soon. See you next time. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are

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