2022 Mega Season Preview Part 3 (Taylor’s Version): U.S. Open/Open Championship
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Lost in translation, baby, I...

Nagels and I recorded for three hours. We split it up into two parts. So as soon as this intro finishes, no pleasantries at all. We jump right into breaking down the U.S. Open. If you haven't checked out part one yet, where we preview the Masters and the PGA Championship, I would encourage you to do so. The feedback on that one has been great. And I think this one's even better. So without further ado, let's get to the show.

Okay, so U.S. Open, we're going to the Country Club this year at Brookline. This course was designed in 1895 by Willie and Alex Campbell. It's a par 70. It's going to measure 7,264 yards. So the Country Club, it's got 27 holes. It has three separate nine-hole courses. It's got the Clyde, the Squirrel, and the Primrose. The Clyde and the Squirrel 9s.

They previously made up the championship course for events. The 2022 routing is going to be different, though. The par 3 12th hole, it's a short downhill par 3 with a tabletop green guarded by four bunkers. That one was recently renovated by Gil Hance.

And that's going to be in the U S open too. So that's going to be fun. They're going to have whole number 12 is going to be like a little flip wedge to this tabletop green surrounded by bunkers. So that should be fun, but the new route, the new routing allows the course to stretch 70, 7,264 yards. So it's,

It's going to be one of the shorter U.S. Open venues that we've seen. It's in that Pebble Beach, Olympic Club, Marion type thing. And we've seen a little bit of this course before, but not in quite some time. It hosted the 2013 U.S. Amateur. You remember who won that? You know, it was in the show notes, but I don't remember because there was a list of about 15 guys that played in it. Yeah.

Matthew Fitzpatrick won the 2013 amateur. Yeah. And so we had the 1999 Ryder Cup and the 1988 US Open and the 1963 US Open. And then the 1913 won the famous one US Open by Francis. Greatest game ever played. Exactly. So this is a core. I love this stuff. You know, I nerd out on the architecture and the history stuff. And this is a

really cool golf course that is steeped in tradition. It's actually one of the five founding clubs of the USGA. So I think the USGA is going to be very excited and very proud. Can you name the other four? I'm not going to do that to you.

No, because I don't even know what the question was. I was thinking about something. Shinnecock, Chicago Golf Club, Newport Country Club, and St. Andrews Golf Club, not the Scottish one. Those are the five other founding members of the USGA. Anyway, so the only thing we have... Stop laughing. The only thing we have is this 2013 US Amateur. And I'm going to give you...

So I'm going to give you all the guys right now that played that are probably going to be in the U S open. So Matt Fitzpatrick won the U S amateur here in 2013, Scotty Scheffler at 17 years old, little Scotty Scheffler quarterfinals of the U S am at Brookline. Xander Shoffley. I've heard of him third round, third round of the U S M in 2013. So,

Bryson, this is a small Bryson back then. He was in the second round. There's a bunch of guys in the second round that I don't think like Brandon Hagee and Adam Shank and Mattias Schwab. We're not going to talk about them, but Taylor Gooch missed the cut. Justin Thomas missed the cut. Harry Higgs missed the cut. Max Homa missed the cut. Will Zalatoris missed the cut. Aaron Wise missed the cut. So basically,

The guys that are at least familiar with this property, like Fitzpatrick's been here before. Scheffler's been here before. Zander's been here before. Bryson's been here before. Gooch has been here before. JT, Max Homo, Will Zaltorz, those guys have all been here before.

You know, normally I'm going to cut you off. Normally I would say, come on, Andy, it's freaking, it's seven years ago, right? 2014. Yeah. Seven years ago. There's no way like this. They're not going to have, they're not going to know anything. They're not going to remember anything like that. That's foolish. But I go back. I was talking to,

I'm not plugging myself. I'm just, I'm laughing at myself that I was talking to Andy Pope the other night and he was talking about when he played in the Tampa Bay open and like 2015 or 16 or something, the Valspar and he's going hole by hole of what he made on every shot. Yeah. It's unbelievable. I'm like, dude, that was like,

That was like eight years ago. How do you remember that? That's impossible. It's like, nah, man, I'm trying to get better. I can do that for like every round I play. I don't know if that's like normal for golfers or whatever, but yeah,

So, yeah, maybe there is something to it. You're hearing these things. Maybe Fitzpatrick has a leg up on the competition because he's familiar with the golfers. I'm not sure. But anyway, I cut you off. Continue. Well, yeah, and I kind of use it more so to highlight the type of players. Fitzpatrick is, I think, the prototypical country club guy. But...

Let me run through the stuff I have on the country club and then let's get, and then I want to, well, I'll ask, I'll bring you in about it, but I got a bunch of stuff. So the first thing that stood out to me about the country, I think the biggest thing that stood out to me about the country club, the greens are tiny, like not even just by tour standards, but by any standards, they are notoriously small greens.

And there are a lot of blind shots. Most holes, you can't see the green from the tee. Sometimes you can't see the green from parts of the fairway. It's a really quirky, it's really claustrophobic. Southern Hills and Augusta are these big, regal, sprawling golf courses with elevated greens and a lot of slope and undulation. The Country Club is...

and claustrophobic and really tree lined. And to be honest with you, I have no idea how the fuck they're going to fit everyone in there. I heard it was a nightmare at the Ryder cup, but it's there's, there's only two holes in the entire course that play in a straight line from T to green. So it's a lot of dog legs and a lot of small greens and tight driving areas. And every hole is kind of curving in, in some direction. And,

I think this pod's important because it's just the polar opposite of what we saw at Torrey Pines last year. And that's awesome. It's a placement course through and through. That's why you've seen guys like Julius Boros win here and Curtis Strange win here. I'll give you an example of what these guys are going to be negotiating. So number four is a drivable par four, for example. And that greens 2,000 square feet, which is maybe the smallest green I've ever seen in

Like that's going to be a really fun hole. And 17, it's this really weird, like double plateau green where they're probably going to put the pin on Sunday on this top tier. That's like 600 square feet wide. It's absurd. And the, the, but it makes sense because it's a short course. So you have to think, how are they going to defend parts and,

It's going to be because of stuff like this. The greens are microscopic. And the 12th green, this little downhill par three, it's called the Redan hole. It's not a Redan hole. The green's too small for it to play like a Redan hole, but it's only 2,000 square feet. And that's going to be a really fun hole to watch. So you have to have a lot of creativity here. You can't overpower this course. You remember the 2013 U.S. Open at Marriott that Justin Rose won? Vaguely, yes. I...

I like that as a comp. I like Marion as a comp a lot. This course definitely reminds me the most of Marion, where it's really short.

But it doesn't matter that it's really short because there are a lot of holes that you can hit driver, which by the way, Marion played as one of the hardest us opens in the past decade. And it was barely over 7,000 yards on the scorecard. So distance really means nothing. If you have interesting architecture and Justin Rose won that us open at plus one. And you look at the rest of the leaderboard at Marion and it's,

Jason Duffner and Billy Horschel and Luke Donald and Steve Stricker. Those guys are at the top of the leaderboard. And even Phil Mickelson, who really should have won, he's maybe the most creative player in the history of golf. So I know people think of Mickelson as a bomber, but I've always kind of liked him on

you know some of these quirkier courses courses with small greens or difficult green complexes because he's so creative around the greens and when he's given options like good architecture tends to do it's you know it's again this is not a place where you can just execute the same shot over and over again i like you had it tori i think kind of those shot makers kind of like

It kind of reminds me of like, it's like a way, way, way harder version of Harbor town, but Harbor town meets like Marion meets like winged foot because the rough is going to be really penal like wing foot. I just, it's claustrophobic and I don't think you're going to be able to overpower it. And you're going to be blocked out by trees in a lot of places and you're

the greens are tiny. So to sum everything up, there's two angles that you could go here. Now, the obvious angle is iron players, right? Because this is definitely a second shot golf course and you need to be really, really precise here. But,

The other angle that you could go Nagels is, well, if these greens are so freaking tiny, then even Morikawa and the best arm players are going to miss some of them. And I expect there to be a very, very low greens and regulation percentage. So that's going to place a huge emphasis on short game. So I could see it going one of two ways. Nagels, this is basically how I would break it down. I think it's either going to be a Jordan Spieth, a Patrick Reed, a Cam Smith type or

Or Morikawa's going to win by a literal touchdown. That is how I see it playing out. By 15 strokes. I think you could go both directions, and I'm fine with either. All right. I have a couple things I need to ask you, if you don't mind. Please. Did you mention the green type? They're bent also. Yeah.

Sorry. Sorry for that. That's a huge oversight for me. That's really important. No, no. Okay. Well, I know the TBC Boston is like bent poa. You're in the Northeast. There might be some poa in the mix there. But okay. But they're bent grass greens. To my knowledge, yes. When you mentioned Marion and Phil Mickelson, thick rough, does the US Open at Pebble Beach have any...

Yeah. I have any relevance. Yes. Yes. Your boy, Gary Woodward happened to win that. I would say Pebble beach. And do you remember Olympic club in 2012, that web one, that's another golf course that I've played before. And the Olympic club is very similar. It's a,

tight golf course with canted fairways and a classical design so yeah i like marion i like olympic club i like winged foot a little bit i mean it's winged foot's a lot longer but you know it's gonna it's gonna you're not gonna be able to you're not gonna be able to do with this you're not gonna be able to do what bryson did to winged foot at this course so that was my next question you were talking about the golf course and the um uh harbor town everything else like

So hypothetically, well, not hypothetically, but what do you think? How is Bryson going to play at this golf course? Or can he play? Can Bryson play at this golf course? Well, I mean, Bryson almost won the players. Like he can, he's doesn't get enough credit for how creative he is. And I don't, I don't think short answer. I do not think that he'll be able to do to winged foot what Bryson

I don't think he'll be able to do that. Is it flat? Is it a flat golf course? It's flat. Country club? Yeah. It's very flat. It's not a super interesting piece of land. At Augusta and Southern Hills, you have this big rolling terrain with a lot of elevation changes. The country club is like this. It's a tight property. It's a tight property, and there are some elevation changes, but it's pretty flat.

Okay. It's small. I think that's relevant. I really do. Especially if you're thinking about Bryson, I think the flatness, he plays well in Florida. You just mentioned the players and obviously great at Bay Hill, Florida, not a lot of Hills in Florida. Bryson is going to be a great zag because no one's going to, no one's going to think this is a great course for Bryson. So he'll have a great zag.

Yeah. So I'm probably going to go to Boston that week. I have family up there. I'll probably go see our boy, Charlie. Hopefully my new friend, the anti-Pope is qualified. I'll be there too. Nagels. I I'll get to cover it for work. I believe.

Well, let's go. Let's fucking go. Let's go. I mean, great. We're going to Boston. All right. I'm, I'm hoping to, I think I'm going to be able to go to every major outs. I outside of Augusta and San Diego. So I don't know why I said that two or four majors. I think I'm going to go. I think I'm going to go to the PGA and the U S open. All right. Well, yeah. All right. Great. So we'll, we'll talk about that. But I was talking to Charlie. I, I,

I asked him, he's a Boston guy. I asked him because we talked about this last year after Torrey Pines. He, yeah, he said it's a shorter golf course, small, tiny greens, like you said, hard to hit and very thick, rough around the greens. And just remembering that, it was like, oh boy, that sounds, that sounds a little, that sounds a little speezy. Yeah. And if you look at the odds right now, oh, I don't have, wait, oh,

Sorry, excuse me. U.S. Open 2022. He's sitting at 18 to 1. Same as Xander, same as JT. And I think there could be a lot of value there. You didn't say anything.

If his iron play is under control, then he can be accurate, which, you know, it was quite a year for Spieth trying to get things straightened out. I mean, he might be the best version of that type of player that we have right now. If short is going to be such a premium. I could be wrong about that. I guess you can argue there's a lot of them are really good. But Spieth, you know, I just I put him there.

I put him near the top of the list. No, you're right. I mean, who, what's the other guy in that? Who are the other guys in that discussion? Patrick Reed. I mean, John Rahm has a really good short game, but like, yeah, can't wait. You know, he's, he's pretty good. Yeah. But yeah, you're Patrick Reed types, but he's not, he's 30. He's double the odds. You know, he's 35 to one. So yeah, I just, I, you know, listen, it's December. I don't have to pick a winner right now, but yeah,

based on everything that we're talking about. But, yeah, you're right, man. Freaking Morikawa. He might win by a touchdown. It's tough. But he can't –

I can't say Morikawa is going to win two or three majors. Yeah, it's the easy answer. I mean, he's a cheat code right now with his irons. But I just, you know, not every U.S. Open course is going to set up perfectly for Morikawa, and this one happens to.

Like this just happens to be a year where the courses are a little bit more nuanced. And, you know, it's a very stark contrast from last year where Torrey Pines was a bit of a bomber's course and the ocean course, you could kind of spray it a little bit off the tee. It's a lot different this year. Yeah, absolutely. So, yeah, I didn't have...

Of all the four majors and all the odds that I looked at and all the course information that I took in, my number one draft pick would be Spieth at the U.S. Open at Country Club of Boston. And I've been on it for basically a year. So – or since June. Since I left Torrey Pines and started talking about Boston with Charlie, I said, boy, that sounds really Spieth-y. And I think he's going to –

I that that would be my pick more so than Morikawa at the Masters or Brooks at PGA or whatever. I like that a lot. So that being said, when I when I have a thing like that, when I have a feeling like this.

I usually don't like bet against my own conviction. So I didn't do a lot of a deep dive in at the end of the board because it's like, well, it doesn't matter because speed's going to win. So why am I betting against myself? So there's some guys that I thought the numbers were interesting. I'll just jump into it. Uh, Cam Smith is 50 to one again, you know, same type of, same type of deal that we've talked about. Let me see. You can, you give a guy and I'll look to see if there's somebody else. Can I talk about Patrick Reed for a second?

Of course. So I really went, like you mentioned reads 35 to one. Yeah. I think, I think there's a chance those might get a little bit better because he really doesn't seem to have it right now. Um, I'm actually surprised that he's this, I mean, he, he was 50 to one at certain places. Um, not at majors, obviously I get it, but he,

he's just not playing well right now, but I really like him on this course. I think you probably should hold out on him. His stock is pretty low right now, as I said, and I do think it does have the chance to maybe even drop a little bit more just because he's a player that books seem not to take a ton of action on, but you know, like he's a guy where they'll hang numbers on him if he's not in good form, like he'll drop if he's not in good form and he's not in good form right now. With that being said,

the early schedule is really good for him. Like here are all the tournaments that he's won that happened before the U S open Torrey Pines, the masters, the tournament of champions and the Amex. So he does a lot of good work early in the year. So if you want to grab read at 35 to one, uh,

I don't hate that because I think it is such a good golf course for him. And if you're in the mold of Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed, you mentioned Cam Smith. I love Cam Smith too. I think that's a good narrative to play into. I think you could do a lot worse than Patrick Reed at this spot. You know what?

Okay, I agree with you, but I disagree too. If Patrick Reed is not playing well right now, you can kind of gamble that maybe that form comes into the new year a little bit. If you wait it out, maybe Reed will drop to 50 with a

With a Webb Simpson or a Thomas Lee. Some of these guys will. People will draft. If you like Patrick Reed for the U.S. Open, which is a good bet, I think 35 is actually a bad number. If you're going to bet Reed, you're going to want to get him at least 45, 40.

Yeah, that's fair. If he doesn't win Torrey or something like that, or Valspar or something beforehand, his number is going to drift. So wait out. And if he does win a tournament, I don't see a tournament that high. Yeah, if he does win a tournament, you're betting him at...

28 or 30 to 1. I mean, the narrative will... People are going to realize a lot of the stuff that we're saying, people are going to realize that it's not like...

We're talking about it first, but people are going to talk about Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth and Cam Smith and Webb Simpson and Matthew Fitzpatrick at the US Open this year. I'm pretty confident about that. I agree with you. Who else did you have? I actually have a lot of guys that I want to mention really quickly.

Okay. See, Wolfe is 50-1 at this tournament, but he's 80 at the Masters. That's weird. That doesn't make sense to me. Yeah, that's a little weird. Maybe because of Wingfoot, but that doesn't match up. Yeah, it's not. Wingfoot is a – there's definitely some similarities to Wingfoot, but I wouldn't go hanging your hat on. This is a ton like Wingfoot. To be honest with you, I thought Wolfe would be the lowest at the PGA because of the Oklahoma thing.

Yeah, well, maybe they don't know that he's from Oklahoma. All right. No, I don't have Abe Anser 65. That could be an Abe Anser golf course, buddy. It could. Abe Anser 65. Will he make enough putts? Who knows? But he's like, I mean, if he's not a short course player,

He's 65. If Abe Anser like wins the players or something, which he's totally capable of doing. He's good at a lot of those Florida courses, right? Like he's good. He's going to be in the mix at the Valspar. He's good at the Amex. Like, yeah. Yeah. I wouldn't be against that Abe Anser 65 at the US Open only because of where it's being played.

I wouldn't be for an Abe answer at 65 at Augusta, although Abe answer played well at, at the ocean course. He played well at wing foot. So, but I'm not wing foot, uh, uh, quail hollow. So I, it may not matter. The size of the golf course may not matter. Abe answer is a pretty good golfer and we need to start putting a little respect on his name. All right. I'm sorry. Go ahead. What do you got? What do you got? Well, I mean, uh,

Cam Smith, you already mentioned. I think that one's pretty self-explanatory given the fact that I really like Jordan Spieth and Patrick Reed. I just think Cam Smith's really good. I definitely think he's good enough to win a major, and I like the way this course sets up for him. It's going to take driver out of his hands. He's really going to be able to rely on his short game, and his iron play has been much improved towards the end of last year. Matthew Fitzpatrick's also 50-1. Like I said, he won the USAM here in 2013, so

you know, obviously he likes this course and it really checks out what the type of game he has. He is in the same vein as your reads and speech and cam Smith style of player, but,

I like Webb Simpson too. I think maybe one is the correct number of majors for Webb in his career, but I think this is probably the best spot for Webb Simpson to pick up another one. He won the US Open at Olympic Club. Like I said, I played that course. It's a tree line, short, tight, classical design with things

with thick rough and canted fairways. And these are the type of major venues that Webb really has a chance at. I like Justin Rose too at 60 to one, he's starting to find some form. And then, I mean, like I'm going to play Bizayden out in DraftKings. He's 125 to one. And then one more, I'll give you one more. I understand that Billy Horschel has been terrible in majors.

But the one time that he contended at a major was Marion and Billy Horschel is like the 33rd ranked player in the world. And he's 140 to one with like Lee Westwood and camp champ. Who's like hurt. So I think Horschel at 140 to one might be, might be someone. And then I'm going to give you, I'm going to give you, I want to see if you can guess this one. I'm going to give you a player who contended out last year's us open and

is a top five iron player in the world over the course of the last season and can be found as high as 175 to one. Can you guess what I'm talking about? 175 to one. Contended at last year's US Open, top five iron player in the world last season. Top five iron player in the world last season. 175 to one.

Matt Wallace? Mm-mm. Okay, no. Who do you got? Russell Henley. Oh, wait, wait, wait. Who was the guy you played him at Torrey that nobody else was on and you were so like, oh, you were so happy with yourself that you played him and who else did? Molinari? Molinari?

Yeah. Was it Molinari? Yeah. He's not a top five player. T13. Oh, wait. Molinari, T13. Won me a lot of money on DraftKings that week for the US Open. Is that who you're talking about? I played Fleetwood and Molinari at the US. I played people. No, it was Molinari. That's who I'm talking about. They were so happy. Yeah. They played Molinari at Torrey Pines. No, but who's the top five player, 175, that you're talking about? Russell Henley. Yeah, he's 130 here.

I, yeah. Well, you should mention him. I don't think he's going to win the U S open, but he, I'm just, he contended at the U S open. And if you want to take the Morikawa route with the tiny greens, I think it's interesting. I think it's interesting too. That's fine. I have no, that's a, that's a player narrative that fits. We'll also add 130 to one and he was on my list.

how about we'll see who Kim shaking that ass at 130 to one. If we're talking claustrophobic, narrow, short game might be a little value there. Guy was one of the players. Guy was one wind them. Guys played well in heritage. I like, no, that's good stuff. No, no, I like, I like, yeah, that's good. That's why I'm good at this. Yeah. Maybe he shakes that ass a little bit up in Boston. I, I,

Yeah, that was the only name that I saw, now versus later. You know, if he goes out and he wins the Heritage or he goes out and wins the Players again or the, what do we call it, the Career Bill, the American Express. If he wins that, you know, see who can pop up at any time. He's 131 right now. So might be something to take a look at.

He fits the course. I think you can bet Billy Ho at 140-1. And I think you can bet Russell Henley. He's anywhere between 130 and 175. Both of those guys play really well in Florida. Henley's probably going to play really well at the Sony Open. He's probably going to play well at the Honda. He might play well at the Valspar. And everyone's going to look at the iron stats too. I'm telling you right now, the narrative come U.S. Open week, it's going to be...

It's the argument is going to be like iron player short game, because that's what it's all about. Cause these greens are really tiny. And I think, you know, with Russell Henley, he, people are going to look at the iron stats and I don't know if Russell, I mean, he's,

He was leading the U.S. Open last year on Saturday, and I think early on Sunday too, which is weird. So I don't hate that. And same with Billy. Billy's kind of been a lot better at some of the later season events, so maybe that's one you could...

You can wait on, but it's not like 141. 140 to one is a bad number if you're betting guys that high to win the U.S. Open. No, that number will drop under 100 if Horschel. God damn it. Freaking devil's losing a shootout all the time. Sorry. You're good. Unbelievable. They're the worst shootout team since the invention of the shootout.

They suck. God, so frustrating. Anyway, that just came over the wire. I saw they lost in a shootout. Sorry about that. You're good, buddy. I think that Billy Horsha will win again before this happens. He's been playing a lot better. He won over in Europe.

I think, yeah, if you can get a number that high, that's not bad. Both of those guys. Henley's, yeah, all those tournaments you mentioned, Henley's always a very popular pick. He's live at those tournaments, and yeah, that's not bad. Get that now. I like that. Very good, Andy Wack. Anyone else before we get into St. Andrews?

No, no, I got no Spieth Smith. See, whoo. That's all I got. I got the questions. I want an answer. No, it's good. Good stuff. Let's go to, let's talk about the St. Andrews. Okay. So the old course Nagels, this is the birthplace of golf. Did you know that it was established in 1552? This is where golf was. This is where golf was first played ever. Yeah, that's great. Yeah. The home of golf.

So, so as you can imagine, a lot of changes have been made since 1552 St. Andrews now stretches to 7,305 yards and plays as a par 72. Now the British open has been played here 29 times. Um,

Um, most recently it was won by Zach Johnson who beat Louie youth station and Mark Leishman in a four hole playoff at 15 under in 2015. Prior to that, Louie youth season one in 2010 at 16 under par tiger woods one here at 14 under par in 2005 tiger woods also won in 2000 at 19 under par. And that year he won by eight strokes. That was the tiger slam year. So, um,

Prior to that, it was daily at 600 par in 95 and faldo at 1800 in 1990. So even as far as 1990, I promise I have a point with all this. Even as far as 1990, the signs were there that this is a property that was maybe going to struggle to adapt to modern technology.

And I kind of went through it with how long these guys hit it these days. This is kind of the main thing that I want to talk about with St. Andrews, because I think it's very different from the other two venues that we have. Like there could be six drivable par fours at St. Andrews, six legitimate holes where players could drive the green. And if we do not get wins, uh,

I think this course is going to play really easy. I really do. And contrary to Southern Hills and the Country Club, which I think both will be quite hard, St. Andrews, it doesn't really stand up to modern technology, which is fine. That doesn't mean it should be changed, but I'm expecting at least 20 under unless it's really blowing is kind of my first takeaway. Yeah. I mean, this major more than any other...

is so dependent on the draw and the weather. And it's really hard to feel confident in a futures bet for the open when if there is weather and your guy's stuck on the wrong side of the draw and you bet this guy in December, you're screwed. So it's really, I think that of all the tournaments, this is the one that it's not really prudent to

Go crazy into majors unless are into futures. Unless of course you have a, just you see a number that you just think is ridiculous. And then you just take your chances, but you don't go, you don't bet the mortgage on it because like I said, you get stuck on the wrong side of the draw. You know, you could be, you could be dead on arrival. And then again, even if you aren't dead on arrival, you still have to beat 130 of the best golfers in the world. So yeah, yeah.

Yeah, if they, I mean, why can't they, the RNA should just play this as like a par 65. So the winning score isn't 22 under par, 28 under par or whatever it is. And it looks like the Sony Open or the Tournament of Champions. I have a hotter take. I think that the British Open should be played with Hickories every year.

Okay. That would work too. Seriously. It sucks. St. Andrews is the greatest golf course in the world. Like it's, it's going to suck to watch these guys. It's going to suck to watch Bryce and shoot 35 under. Is it flat? No, I mean, it's no, it's, it's, there's a lot of, yeah, there's a lot of undulation. Well, he's never played well at the open, right?

No, no, he's never, he's, I mean, he made the cut last year, but no, he hasn't finished like top 25 or anything. No, I want, I want Bryson on a flat golf course. I don't like, uh, yeah. So none of the odds of the top guys really jump out at me. Well, wait, I want to do a little bit. I want to touch a little bit more on the course. I want to touch a little bit. I want to know the, no, the, the, I just want to touch on the easier thing. Um,

a little bit more. So, you know, like any British Open, like you mentioned, it's going to be the wind. Like last year with the British Open, many people, including myself, handicapped that course with the assumption that we were going to get a lot of wind. And obviously we didn't get that wind and the course played way differently than what we would have thought if it was windy. So it's kind of a fool's errand to predict because we just don't know about the wind. But I want to talk about

what I think will happen if the wind doesn't blow that much. So St. Andrews is some of the widest fairways that you're going to find anywhere. Of course, there's still a ton of strategy off the tee because you want to attack the hole from the correct angle, but still the way that I talked about Southern Hills and country club, aren't really driver courses. Like you can hit driver on pretty much every hole you want to at St. Andrews. So like when they played the Dunhill links here, I mean,

they didn't get a ton of wind that week and players were almost shooting 59. And it's not like the RNA isn't aware of this. Like Martin slumbers, who's the CEO has, he's talked about this before, but there's really like not much that you can do after a certain point. Like the 17th tee is now like in a random field, like right of the 16th fairway. There's some tee boxes that you're now having to travel over a thousand yards from the previous green. Like they have massive,

max this place out. And even with those changes, it hasn't made the course a whole lot harder and it's not even worth tricking up anymore. And the RNA understands that because at a certain point, it's not going to be St. Andrews anymore. And none of the shit that I'm saying is breaking news, by the way. People have been talking about this with St. Andrews for years. In fact,

There's a really good golf digest piece back in 2018 that talks about this very issue and how easy the course played in 2015.

Now, fast forward seven years later, just in those seven years from 2015 to 2022, average driving distance on tour has already increased by eight more yards. And that's a lot. And so I talked about that. I'm pretty confident that you can't overpower Southern Hills and especially the country club because of kind of the renovations that Gil Hans did. And

Again, it's not possible at St. Andrews without completely losing the integrity of the architecture. Like I said, I think if there's a major where Bryson is going to shoot 35 under par, or anyone for that matter, this would be my candidate. I think that if we don't get wins, I think some of the bombers are going to be able to

have themselves a time here at St. Andrews. Okay. I like it. Well, I don't like it, but I appreciate everything that you're giving. I agree with you. It's all going to be dependent on the weather, I guess, for the sake of this. So since we don't know what it's going to be doing, anything that jumps out on the odds board is something that I wrote down that I thought might be interesting. Of course, if the weather is going to be bad that week, then

then you can really start taking looks at guys in the triple figures that hit it a long way that might have open championship experience. I still think that that's relevant, but yeah, I mean the top 20 players in the world, almost all of them hit it a really long way. Yeah. It might just be, it might just be a contest of who hits it the farthest. We'll see. But yeah,

Did anything stand out to you? I know you mentioned Bryson, but did anything or anyone stand out to you as, oh boy, loser? Well, the other thing about St. Andrews too is I think like Augusta, it's a reps course. There's actually like a really interesting corollary between the guys who have played well at St. Andrews and played well at Augusta. And I think...

that's because they're both courses where it really helps to have some experience. There's a million different hole locations that you can put out here. And some of the hole locations completely change the way that the hole is being played. Number two,

If you have the pin on the left at number two, like you have to come in from the right because of the undulations and that hole could play as one of the hardest on the course. If the pin is in a certain place and it could play as one of the easiest holes on the course, if the pin is in another place. So one thing that I was kind of looking at a little bit is, um,

is they did have the open here in 2010 and 2015. And there's 19 guys that are probably going to be in the field that played here in both 2010 and 2015. I'm not going to list all of them, but just some of the guys that have had no... Like, Louie won in 2010 and lost in a playoff in 2015. That's why he's fucking 20-1. Westwood...

Second here, Paul Casey, third here. Fowler has finished top 30 both years. Adam Scott has finished top 30 both years. Sergio has finished top 15 both years.

Both years here, but you know, when I was kind of at the top, like I like Rory here. I mean, I think everyone is talking about him at the masters. I think this is just as good of a spot for him. He finished T3 at St. Andrews as an amateur in 2010. That was kind of his coming out party when he was 20 years old. He finished T3 here. Um, that was like his hello world moment. And then, um,

You know, the other guy that I haven't talked about a ton on this podcast is I like Brooks here a lot. I know he's been a little bit worse at the British Open than he has at the U.S. and the PGA, but I love Brooks at St. Andrews. I mean, he was T10 here in 2015. And I guess the only other, the guy that I mentioned is I think there's a universe where

works out for Bryson. I think this is the best venue for him of the four. So at the top, the guys that really stick out to me here are Rory Brooks and Bryce. And I think, I just think they're going to be able to hit a lot of drivers and really be able to pick this course apart with their power off the team. None of them have good odds right now. And I expect at least one of them to drift. So there's no urgency to go back.

Bet Rory at 14 to one or Brooks at 14 to one, or even pricing at 18 to one. I think you can wait, but those are kind of the guys at the top that I'm looking at. Okay. Well, Xander's 22. Yeah. That's odd to me that Xander's 22 and Rory's 12. A lot of the euros are priced a lot lower. I know it's the open championship, but Hatton's 22. Hatton and Xander are 22. We were just talking about Hatton at 50 to one at the U S open.

It's weird. Yeah. It's weird. What's Fleetwood like 35 to one. Exactly. Yeah. This is why you're good. Yeah. So Shane Larry. So it's Paul Casey. So it's Fitzpatrick. Hoblin's 25. Rose is 40. Bob McIntyre is 40 to one.

You know what's weird about that whole thing too is like the if you faded that narrative last year you made a lot of money because it was because here's the thing about British Opens if the wind doesn't blow that it's going to play a lot more like a PGA Tour course like obviously if the wind does blow it's going to

play like a link style British course that those guys grew up playing. But guess what? If the wind doesn't blow, it's going to play just like we saw last year where it's, it's target golf and the best iron player in the world wins. Well, Tony Finau is 40 to one. I like that. That jumped out at me. Yeah. It's a good find. Same odds as Brandon, Brandon grace, same odds as Rob McIntyre, same odds as Rose Finau, 40 to one.

And this type of, if it's, you know, if it's calm and it's just going to be making a lot of birdies. And that sounds like, I think I'm getting like a bit of an edge if I'm getting Finau at 40 and, you know, Louie is 20. Yeah. Not saying Louie and not saying Finau is a better player than Louie, but yeah.

I'm getting double the odds and basically the same chance, you know? Yeah. Does that make sense? Do I sound like an idiot? No, you don't sound. I understand completely what you're saying. Yeah. Louie's 20 and Finau's 40, and they're both trying to do the same thing. And I just don't think it's Louie's twice as likely to win just because he's won in there before and for the second. Anyway, so Finau at 40 jumped out at me. I know him as Xander Homer, but him at 22, he's,

jumped out at me when all the other, all the other top five, top 10 players are all 12, 14,

That was odd. Xander has played well in an open championship before. That's a great course for Xander. I mean, I think what the thing that I found interesting is the place that I'm actually worried about the most for him is the country club because his short game's gotten better, but still he would be the first to admit it's

probably the weakest part of his game. So like I was, I initially had him penciled in for the country club and then I kind of shifted and now I kind of like him more at the other places. I love him at St. Andrews. Xander could tear this place apart. Well, he could contend.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves. I'm having a hard time saying he's tearing places apart. He can contend, and we'll hope for the best. We'll talk about Xander a little bit. We'll talk about him soon. Yeah. So that jumped out at me. You asked for guys like 50 to one or higher. I have Adam Scott written down. You just mentioned him. Top 30 both years. I have Sergio written down. You just mentioned him. Sergio's a 50.

And I just talked about all those euros that are 25, 35 to one. And Sergio's 50. It's the same thing like Finau versus Louis. If I'm going to get, I feel like I have like an odds advantage, but it's very similar type, very similar chance to win. But I'm going to take the better number. And Sergio 50, I think is better than Terrell Hatton at 22.

at an open championship at St. Andrews where experience matters. Yes, absolutely. So yeah, I, I looked, I looked at Scott, Adam Scott at 50, Sergio at 50. If Adam Scott's going to win another major, I know you, we mentioned him for the masters. I just think maybe the open championship, he's always played, almost always has played well there. And that's, he should have won it at least once. And you know,

maybe if half the field is eliminated with a bad draw and Adam Scott's on the right side of the draw, then you got a live one there. So you need a lot of things to work out, but he certainly don't have to worry about distance off the tee or anything like that. He could, I like that. I like Adam Scott there in that regard. So those were my 50 to my 50 to one guys. There's a bunch of, there's a bunch of names. It's the usual names that we were talking about before, but yeah,

again it's so hard to with all the all these great players at the top it's so hard to feel really great about anybody that are long shots that's where that's when like DraftKings comes into play you know but we're following out right now so it's a little different I think there's I'll give you one guy that I think is going to be pretty popular for good reason and and then I'll give you just a

Crazy one, but I don't think I'm going out on too much of a whim here because he lost in a playoff at St. Andrews in 2015, but...

I think this sets up very, very well for Mark Leishman. He hits it really far. He can control his ball flight really well, especially with his long irons. He's had good success in the wind before. He's the type of player that if the conditions are hard, you feel okay about him. And if the conditions are easy, you feel okay about him. His inaccuracy off the tee shouldn't hurt him too much here. I think he is,

I think he's a good enough player to win a major. He's won pretty solid events over good fields on good golf courses like Bay Hill and Torrey Pines and a FedEx Cup playoff event. I just trust him on Sundays, and I think he makes a ton of sense here. He's 66-1 right now is the best you can find. And again, I think he'll probably be pretty popular because he...

lost in a playoff in 2015, but I think it's justified. So I have no problem with Leishman, and if you want to bet him now, I definitely understand that too because he tends to play pretty well on a lot of those courses that you see early in the season. And then this guy, I mean, it's a flimsy case, but listen, I think Dylan Fratelli is like...

I didn't expect that. I think he's a phenomenal candidate for the Angel Cabrera Award, where at the end of his career, he has three wins and two of them are majors. If you're just...

You need a different award, man. I don't know how Cabrera is in a prison somewhere. You don't want to be – you need a different award. Okay, Ben Curtis, where it's like, oh, my God, is this guy actually going to win this thing? He's walking up Swillicon Bridge with his glasses on. So here's the thing about Fratelli. So last year –

He had two top 15 finishes and both of them only two all season. And both of them were top fives, actually fifth at the masters fifth at the British open. And I love St. Andrews for like, he's picked up a ton of distance. I think players are going to hit a lot of drivers on that course. And he's a really good wind player went to UT and,

So, you know, he's 300 to one. I don't imagine this number really moving. So you can wait, but if you want to have some fun and maybe play into the mindset that once in a while we're due for a weird one, which we are, by the way, like we'll get to our picks at in a second, but it's not going to be for elite guys. I'm telling you that right now for Telly,

I think St. Andrews is a place that makes more sense for him than it should. Okay. Top five at the British Open and the Masters. Yeah. I like that. I like Dylan Fratelli. I always have this thing because I heard him do an interview once with the laying up guys or with the other with Tron on the trap draw. Trap draw, yeah.

that he likes Pete Dye golf courses. If I were going to play Dylan Fratelli in a major, I'd probably play him at the Country Club of Boston in the U.S. Open, more so than St. Andrews. I always played Dylan. I like Fratelli in the match play or at the players. I played him in the team event at the Zurich, you know, at Pete Dye golf courses just because he said that. And it was like, oh, I have this inside information that I heard Fratelli talk about.

So, or the heritage, I play him there too. So anyway, but yes, he does. He, he has picked up a lot of distance. Maybe that's why his finishes are so sporadic and he wasn't so great at the Pete Dye golf courses. And maybe he needs to dial it back and keep his freaking ball in the fairway. But anyway,

Yeah, man. I mean, you got a dart that big? Yeah, go ahead. I'm not going to text you on Thursday and say goodbye. Fratelli, what a terrible bet. I have a couple holes. We'll let it play out, and we'll see what happens. I'm not a bad guy. So I like that. Sam Burns, I see, is 101. Again, he has a monster spring like he's certainly capable of, and it's going to be a bomber's thing.

Yes, experience matters, but then again, experience might not if you're driving six par fours. So Sam Burns can light it up. He's 101 right now. That would be interesting. But if he gets the wrong side of the draw, yeah, you might get screwed, but then again, you might not. So I kind of like that. That's the only thing. But yeah, I like Leishman.

He's a guy that said that if he was going to win a major, he loves the Open Championship more than any other major. It sets up well for him. And that near miss really has stuck with him over the years. Yeah, he's in that. I think I saw him at 50-1. He's right in that mix that I was looking at with Sergio and Adam Scott and a lot of veterans there that have experience and can certainly –

Certainly compete. You got Westy there, Sergio. Yeah, they're all there. Webb's there. Cam Smith, Leishman. Abe Anser sitting at 65-1. If you like Abe Anser, the win may be. I think it's so funny how...

You and I both have like hated the Abe answer thing where everyone's betting him at 15 to one to win the travelers. And then you play him in Memphis for the first time ever. And he wins. And now you're like an answer guy.

I am not an answer guy, but it's the numbers. It's the narratives. It's the, and yeah, but because I wanted Abe answer to show me something and he finally showed me something. It's not because I didn't have a huge bet on Abe answer. He was like the third pick on my draft Kings team. It was a great play. I had somebody, I don't remember who it was, but I'd have to look back, but I thought somebody else was going to win. And yeah, Abe answer happened to win in a playoff. Good for him. But yeah,

Abe answer came into that week. He was like 8%. Oh, nobody was talking about him. He was the darling. So yeah, that was a great week to play. They have answered. Yes. He happened to win, but I'm not taking, but I mean, if he's 65, if he's a top 20 player and his odds are above 50 to one, I think it is worth mentioning because that win and, and Memphis might be a stepping stone and he might win.

In Hawaii, or he might win in California. He might win in Florida. And then all of a sudden that number has disappeared because it's wrong. And he's a top 20 player. And there's a couple of examples of that. And that's why we're doing this multiple hour podcast, telling you all these guys that have higher odds than they might have at the time of kickoff. So yeah,

That's what we're doing. And I am not an A-mancer guy. How dare you? And I also think like, as you mentioned, this is probably the least logical market to bet into early because there's just so much stuff up in the air with the weather and stuff like that. But it's

To kind of put a bow on it, like I mentioned that I was kind of no think I'm going to play Brooks, Bryson or Rory at the other majors. And I think one of those guys is going to drift at some point during the season. I don't know who it's going to be, but all three of those guys are 18 to one or lower right now. And I don't think they close that way, especially with

Rahm and Spieth is going to be low at the British Open and Morikawa and JT and Xander. And you have to put Louis at under 30 to one at St. Andrews. And Reed is always going to get some steam at British Open. So I think that there's going to be a 20 or maybe even a 25 next to a really big name. And between those three guys of

Rory Brooks, Bryson, they're kind of on my short list for St. Andrews. I think one of them out, I think at least one of them is going to drift into the 2020s. So that's kind of the only thing that I would be monitoring and look like if Leishman, uh,

hits 100-1 at some point in the early schedule, which I think is possible because of how volatile a player is, then I would definitely be there. But that's kind of it for me on the British. Okay. I like it. I have no issue with that. I think, based on everything we're talking about, I think the only...

I don't know if this is something that you want to talk about, but I think the only major I would be interested in Bryson in would be at the U.S. Open. That's a huge zag. I love it. Wingsfoot. People didn't like him at Wingsfoot either. Yeah, that was a bad miss. I remember thinking about that. That wasn't in June. That was in the fall when I was after the playoff. I was mad at myself for missing that because that seemed –

That was there. That was there for the taking. Anyway, whatchamacallit. I'm on this thing now with Bryson with flat golf courses. Like he'll be great. He might be great at the players and at Bay Hill or anywhere like in Florida or somewhere in Texas or something where it's flat. But I don't know if I like him with a lot of undulation and him having all the same length irons and all his wedges and everything.

I that if I'm going to consider Bryson for a tournament, I need to consider the lay of the land. That's going to be one of my things for 2022. But yeah, I don't have you know, I talked about at the beginning of the show. I talked about five guys that I liked basically for all four, all four majors.

I don't see – that was something I wanted to ask you. I don't know if you want to have like a little head-to-head contest here. We got four majors. I was thinking that we each pick five guys for the four majors and see how it goes. Not like a draft. Like we can have carryover, but I didn't mention this to you beforehand, so you don't have to do it right now. But if you got four majors and you could pick five guys and see how many –

See how many you can get, so to say. And it's just however much money they make combined? Yeah, or if you get two of them win or against one. No, I know what you're saying. I'm down. I'm always down. Maybe money could be a tiebreaker, but I got to put Brooksy in there, Spieth, Collin, JT, and Xander. And I got no DJ. I got no Rob. I got no –

I got no Bryson, no Victor. I got, you know, I don't know if there was, there was anybody else that you guys for the four majors would, would those be your five? Uh, I would pick Justin Thomas, Xander Shoffley, Jordan Spieth, Brooks Koepka, and, uh,

Probably Rory Mackle. Oh, Colin and Colin. Those are my five. Yeah. I mean, yeah. All right. No head to head on that. No head to head on that. But all right. Well, well, okay. So I want to do, let's do what I want to do a little rapid fire with you real quick. And then I want to talk a little bit about Xander and I want to talk a little bit about Taylor Swift. Um,

I'm here for it. Let's do this first. Let's go through our predictions. You have to do one guy for each of these things, just rapid fire back and forth. Masters, one guy. Who wins the Masters? Kyle Morikawa. Okay. I'll go Justin Thomas. PGA Championship. Brooks Koepka. I'll go Xander there. U.S. Open. Jordan Spieth. Jordan Spieth. British Open.

I like Finau. I really do. I was going to go Dylan Fratelli. No, I'll go Leishman. I'm telling you right now, I have JT Masters, Xander PGA, Spieth open. It's not going to be for guys. There's going to be one...

middle tier guy. People forget with Hideki, like Hideki was at, obviously Phil was fucking 300 to one, but Hideki was like kind of off the radar. I think he was as high as 50 and he wasn't playing well at all. So I know Hideki is a better player than Mark. I had Hideki at the master's list. I know you did. That was, I think it was the first time I watched your show.

Hey, making an impression. Well, Finau's one of those guys. 100%. Yeah, no, if you're like taking the easy way out is picking Colin and Rom at every one. I think that's, I like the Finau play. Who wins the players? Oh, Jesus. Oh,

I wasn't ready for that. Who wins the players? Abe answer. We'll call back. I want to give something that I want to give something. I am probably Bryson. Be honest with you. Okay. Who wins the FedEx cup? Who cares? Eastlake. I knew who you got. I'll go. I'll go Rory. Cause I'm not giving him a major.

So he's going to win the FedEx Cup without winning a major? And player of the year, because that's how it works now. You don't have to win a major. You just win the FedEx Cup and you're player of the year. In fact, if you're Patrick Cantlay, you don't even have to finish top 10 in a major. I know. I remember. That was, I know. That's funny. Jesus. All right. FedEx Cup. Hold on. These are rapid fire. It doesn't matter. You don't have to. I don't care who wins the FedEx Cup. Yeah, who cares? I love the tour championship, though. I know you do. It's my favorite.

JT wins the FedEx Cup. Okay, rookie of the year, last one. Oh, you know who's supposed to be really good? It's that Ramey kid. Yeah. Is that his name, Chad Ramey? Does that sound right? Yeah, yeah, I like that. That's a good pick. Yeah, well, that's probably pretty squarish, but I... No, the squarish pick is Mito, but I think Mito is the best pick. I think he is the best rookie.

We'll see. Yeah, we'll see. You're right. Okay. Oh, you know what? I'm just going to handle this now. Listen, we didn't talk about Jon Rahm at all. People are... Shout out our friend Boston Capper. Like, here's my thing with Jon Rahm, just real quick. Hit me. He's like...

This happens with NBA players and football players all the time, where when analytics first got going, I remember in the NBA when PR and analytics really got going and John Hollinger would come on ESPN and write these long articles and be like, you know who's a top five player in the NBA? Rudy Gobert. And I

Everyone was like, yeah, yeah, you're right. Like, wow. Like, look at that efficiency. Like, look at his, look at his PR. And then the pendulum swings like really far in the other direction. And suddenly everyone's voting for Rudy Gobert for MVP and he still can't get his team out of the first round of the playoffs.

And I just think the pendulum with John Rahm, it's same thing happened with, with Russell Wilson too, where it's like everyone would go on first take and be like, you know, who doesn't get enough credit? Russell Wilson.

Like, you know who's underrated? Russell Wilson. And it's like, no, Russell Wilson, like he's very properly rated. Like no one thinks Russell Wilson is bad. He's very properly rated. And that's how I think about Rahm. I think the data golf generation has opened up this world to Rahm where there was a narrative that he is like, has created separation as the best player in the world. And I think obviously that has proven not to be

true, obviously, at this point. I think he's unbelievable, and I think he's in the conversation for the best player in the world, but

I don't have him winning a major this year and I wouldn't be shocked. I think he is, there's 12 guys. I talked about in this, the Twitter spaces with Rick Gabin, where it's like, there's 12 guys where if they win three times and we're doing this next year and Patrick can't lays the number one player in the world. Like I'm not shocked at all. And so with ROM, like,

I couldn't fit him in for maybe he wins the players. Maybe that's a good spot for him, and he certainly could win a major. But the only thing with Rahm I push back on him is that there's a gap. And maybe I'm arguing against myself. Maybe no one actually thinks there's a gap, but there was this John Rahm is underrated thing that I never quite understood. John Rahm is very properly rated. No one thinks John Rahm sucks. I think John Rahm sucks. Oh.

When you had this conversation, I clicked on for like 20 seconds, and I heard you talking to Rick. I don't know what you were ranking or whatever, but did you bring this Rom thing up to him? Because I'm curious to know what he would have said about that.

Do you want to share that? He is a numbers guy. He is a data golf guy, more or less. I am too. I'm the biggest numbers data golf guy, but you can't stare at a data golf. You have to watch the golf too. And like, you can't, I test it and say that ROM's best day is like that much better than Colin's best day. You're preaching to the fucking four-year-old choir right now. Believe me when I tell you, I know. Okay. I understand. Yeah.

I get so much shit for being like the most anti-Rom. Come on, he hasn't done anything yet. I, people think I'm an idiot and that's fine. I'm mostly an idiot. You put on the, you put on the show sheet, your bold prediction for 2022. And my bold prediction for 2022 is that Jon Rahm is not going to win a PGA Tour event this year. That's my bold prediction for 2022. Now it's a bold prediction.

it's probably, he'll probably win something, but it can't be some bullshit Spanish open or, you know, I guess. Hold on. He, he can't, I mean, he can't even break 80 in those. So listen, I'm just saying, and the Zura classic doesn't count either, by the way, but, but,

That was my bold prediction. But, yeah, listen, he's really good, and he won the U.S. Open, and he's won Memorial, and he's good. He's good. He's a pain in the ass. I'm glad that I have Kyle Morikawa. I don't like Jon Rahm, mostly because I had a take fucking four years ago or three years ago, and people don't let me live it down. Years later, to this day.

So they a little coming at me. Anytime Ron does anything, he just head up.

People are coming at me. Oh, how do you like Jon Rahm now? Oh, is he overrated now? Yeah, I'm fine. I can take it. So, yeah, you don't have to tell me anything negative. You're fine. Let's just see how it plays out. He's good. He's going to be around for a while. It's annoying. I have to deal with it. But, hey, you said something the other day on Twitter that I wanted to ask you about because I didn't know quite what it meant.

Because I also have this like real big dislike for Adele. And you said Rom is like the Adele of golf. That's a great one. Yeah, that's exactly what I said. What does that mean? What does that mean? I don't, I don't, I don't quite know yet. I think Rom's the type of guy that he'll get a residency in Vegas and just end up disappointing everyone. I hate Adele.

I hate Adele more than I hate Jon Rahm. Save it for the Taylor talk. I will. But I didn't know if that was a shot at Rahm. I don't know if you're taking shots at Adele. I'm like, what is this Andy Lack guy doing? He's taking...

We can't have the same brain. I was, I was, I was making, I was making, I was making a joke because I know you hate Adele and I'm, and I don't, I don't have an opinion on Adele. I'm not just like, I don't have an opinion on John Rahm. I think John Rahm is properly rated.

By most people. I think what I think, I know what you're talking about. Cause I think it was Kyle Porter or somebody said, name and name a golfer. That's underrated or over or name a golfer. That's underrated. And he answered John rock saying that he's so good that people don't even understand how good he is.

And yeah, that's like a little, you know, and the, the, there was like a unanimous player of the year crowd. You know what I mean? There was like a, this isn't a discussion. You know what I mean? I think you don't care about, but okay. I know.

Yeah. Who cares if you're one player of the year? It doesn't matter. I thought you made a very compelling case for Colin Markow. Thank you. It was good. It was a solid take going forward. You know, it's fine. It's fine. There's so many good players, and it's golf, and let's just enjoy it. You already did your bullet prediction. I was going to say...

Oh man. Like I'm just, I just, I do think that we're due for a really weird major. Like we've been getting a lot of 50 to one and below guys this fall. And, and,

the majors wise too. And outside of Phil, it's been a lot of pretty elite players winning majors, even Phil, like as shocking as that was, like he's top 10 golfer of all time, just extending his window way longer than anyone thought. But I feel like we're kind of due for a Lucas Glover or a Ben Curtis or a Y Yang or a Danny Willett or Jimmy Walker. So I'll say, I think we get three elite major winners this year and one absolute shocker.

That's my bold prediction. And for the guy, I'll say it's Dylan Fratelli at St. Andrews. That would be, that would be fucking epic. I'd be so happy. I'd be so happy for you. That'd be great. Go back to this. I just think there's so many good players now. Yeah. That's why it's like, it's, it's so hard. Like there's so many guys we didn't even talk about. 15, 20 years ago, you just had to be Tiger or you're going to be Tiger and Phil and Ernie and,

That was like, those are the guys you had to beat. Now there's so many of them. It sucks. It's hard, but they're all making a lot of money. So it's fine. But if you want to win, you want a legacy, you really got to earn it. So-

That's my take on that. But, yeah, Phil's at all-time great, and he wasn't spooked by Brooks Koepka or Louie, and he just went and he won. So good for him. But, yeah, I could see that happening. You know, it could be weather-related. It could be, you know, it won't –

Yeah. A lot of that has to do with the venue and everything. Yeah. It's a good take. It's a great take. Right. Great take. I want to talk about, you said under the radar guy wins this season. Yeah. One guy. Give me, give me an under radar guy.

Now, he might not be under the radar to you or me or a lot of people listening, but this is a guy like my dad has no idea who this guy is. That was my measuring stick. Yeah, that's fine. But my dad knows who this guy is. And if he does, then he's not under the radar. But if he doesn't know, then, yeah, he's under the radar. I think Matt McNeely is going to finally get a win. That's my under the radar guy. That's a good way. I actually –

I had him written down. I like Mac McNeely. That's a good one. I'll go Gary Woodland. Is Gary Woodland under the radar? No. When the US opened, like two years ago. Yeah, but everyone thinks he sucks now. He's not under the radar. I like Saheeth Tagala a lot. He's a guy I'm really high on. I could see him winning the Barracuda.

Okay, that doesn't really count. Since you won't let me do Justin Rose. But I think Saheith is going to make some noise this year. I think...

Again, I don't think he's the best rookie yet. He's still really young. He's a lot younger than Mito, but I think he's going to make some noise this year and play well on harder goals. I always get Sagawa confused with the other guy. No, not him. Did Sagawa go to Pepperdine? Yeah, he was unbelievable in college. Yeah, he was unbelievable in college. Yeah, I know that. Yeah, he's good.

Yeah. I'm not going to – no, it's not Akshay Bhatia. It's somebody else. But, yeah, that's a good pick. But, yeah, I like McNeil. I think he's going to grab one of those California events. We'll see.

All right. This is probably the part of the, I mean, it's already been almost two and a half hours. This is probably the part of the podcast where you can turn off. We're done talking about the majors. We're going to, we're going to do a little, we're going to talk a little bit about Xander and we're going to talk a little bit about Taylor Swift, but that's, that's all our talk for the majors. Two of my favorite people. Do you have any closing thoughts? I feel like we gave, we went through our predictions, uh,

Anything else that you want to mention? I just want to say, thank you for having me on. There's a lot of very good golf people that you could have had on. Also some very bad golf people that you could have had on, but you, you had me on and I appreciate it. This has been a lot of fun and yeah, just thanks for, thanks for having me.

And good luck to everybody with their futures bets if you're going to be doing it. And I'll see everybody at the country club up in Boston. Shout out to Charlie. Shout out to Charlie. All right, let's talk about Xander just a little bit. You have a take that... Can we talk about the Ricky comparison? Because I just think you're so wrong on that. We can absolutely talk about whatever you want. I'm here to answer any question that you may have.

I just have concerns. I am not making any definitive statements. I am concerned. My radar is up. I'm in defense mode because I can see the bullshit already, and I hear it, and I see it, and I'm a little concerned about

If anybody doesn't know what Andy's talking about, I was talking about Xander the other day with Andy Pope, and I said I see like Rocky III vibes coming where Xander's kind of – he reached top five player in the world. He won a gold medal, and I just concerned about him going – either being stagnant or going backwards or –

and not taking that next leap, which we've been waiting for for the last couple of years. And I just, I'm just concerned. So what is your concern about my concerns?

Well, no, the way that you just framed it was very eloquent. And I share those same concerns. I've even told you, like, I remember during the Zozo, I texted you and I was like, did we hitch our rag into the wrong guy? Because he was just so lost out there at a tournament that he was seven to one. And I actually really thought that he was going to win. So the way you just framed that, like, yeah, I have my concerns about Xander there too. I was speaking more to the take of

I thought you were kind of going in a direction of he's like sold out a little bit and his heart's not in it. And he's becoming like a Ricky Fowler where he's more about the media stuff and the commercials than he is about winning. And he's also becoming viewed as Ricky in the same way, which that's the part that I don't agree with. A, well, can I just say one last piece on why I don't? Yes, please.

The reason why the Ricky thing, I think, is not even a conversation. The reason why Ricky became a little bit of a joke to some people is because you have these fucking 12-year-olds that wear orange to every golf tournament for three years in a row. At the end of the day, I think the Olympics really helped Xander's stock, and I think the Ryder Cup really helped Xander's stock, but...

he's not even close to that stratosphere, man. Like he's not even, and I've watched Xander. I followed Xander for like four tournaments this year. And he's just, he's not even close to that stratosphere. All right. You got to stop. You got to stop. I can't take it anymore. Listen to me, Andy. I love you. I'm not, I'm not making that much of a reach. Okay. What I mean is what I'm trying to say, the word you use was Ricky being like a joke, right?

I don't want Xander to become a joke, to become a punchline. I don't want him to be over-marketed as this gold medal winner and this Ryder Cup hero who

And this great American and everybody chant and USA down every fairway around every green after every putt, which we saw with our own ears and eyes. We heard it. We saw it. And I said to you then, I said, boy, I really don't like this. I liked Xander when he was under the radar, when my dad didn't know if he was going to even play in the masters. And he was ranked seventh in the world when nobody knew who he was. And he had a goofy name. And that was my guy.

Now, holy shit, he's one of the biggest stars in the world. He's a gold medal winner, which apparently is a big deal to fucking everybody in the world except me. And I'm just concerned that he will become – he is getting levels of adulation that he hasn't earned yet in my eyes. And I just – I want –

I want to stay on a trajectory. Now, if he's peaked and he can't get higher than three in the world,

I'm okay with that. Just go out there and fucking fight. But that doesn't mean that you're a gold medalist and you're a Ryder cupper and you're one of the best Americans and you're going to be a staple in USA and USA and Xander and he's got galleries and he's got crowds and everybody loves Xander Shofflin. Get the fuck off my island. I love Xander Shofflin more than you had any idea who he was. Not you, Andy Lack. People. So,

I'm a little like, I'm just mad that he's so popular yet. He hasn't done anything yet. That's my point. And you say he's not that popular. Bullshit. I don't buy it. He's the guy. He's a guy. He's there. He's made it. He's a guy and he's mainstream. He's not some under the radar type of guy anymore. And why? Cause he won a freaking gold medal and against a shit field. Who cares?

Who cares? Give the medal to your dad and go get a jacket. Go get a real trophy. That's what I want. And I'm scared. I'm nervous that...

If it's just more of the same, he's just going to be a joke, like you said, like Ricky is. And when I say Ricky, Ricky was close in majors, and he's won a couple of times, and he won a players, and he's got the tattoo of the fucking Olympics on his arm, and he's marketable. And I just don't want those comparisons to be made. I'm getting out ahead of it. I'm getting in front of it because if that happens, I need to be prepared for it.

So I'm not yelling at you. I'm just yelling. But that's where I stand. Now, I hate the fact that he's playing in Saudi Arabia. Why, Xander? Why are you playing in Saudi Arabia? You don't need to travel all the way across the world to go play in that tournament. That's a bad sign. I hate that. That's not what I want. I am not rooting for that.

That's going to fuck up your Torrey Pines schedule and waste management and Riviera. What are you doing flying to Saudi Arabia? That fucking kills me. So I don't like that. It's just, it's there. I see it. I see it before it's happening. I could be wrong. And God, I hope I'm wrong. And I hope he wins Phoenix. Or I hope he wins Torrey. And I hope he comes to the Masters with...

or he wins a match. I hope he wins. I think he might win like twice this year. That would be great. But I just, I'm putting up my defense because that's my guy and I've been rude for him and I've become friendly with like his caddy, like more of a kind of sort of, and I'm in the mix. Like I,

And I just, I see this fucking crowd of people chanting USA. We know nothing about them other than he won a gold medal. They don't know the pain and heartache I've been going through and all these second place finishes over the years. So,

Of course I'm rooting for him. I am not giving up on my guy. Talking about Colin Moore, Colin, I love. Whatever. I just want Xander to not have Clubber Lang come in and kick his ass, and he needs to be woken up. I need him to just go. Just keep going. I want him to feel like he hasn't accomplished anything yet. Because he hasn't accomplished anything yet. So when he accomplishes something, I'll feel better. And that's all I've ever wanted was him to accomplish something. He needs to win a major.

So go win a fucking major. And then you're not Ricky Fowler and you're not a punchline and you're not a joke and everything else is warranted. I don't want him to get anything unwarranted, which is everything that he's getting right now. And I hate, again, I hate that he's playing a Saturday Ravens.

God, that sucks. You sound like the guy that lives in Venice or Aspen and buys a locals only t-shirt and gets really, really angry when tourists come into town. Don't hassle me. I'm local. Yeah. It's a very get off my lawn take.

But does it make sense? Do you understand what I'm saying? A little bit. Can I ask you a follow-up question? Do you think Xander finished in the top 10 of the pep? What the fuck? I don't care. Who cares? That isn't the foundation of your argument that he's becoming a guy. I'm telling you, isn't part of it that he's picking up all this steam and

You know, all that, all the Ricky stuff. And I'm just asking you, it's like, do you think Xander is one of the 10 most marketable players in this game of golf? Do you think he's one of the 10 biggest names in the game of golf? 10? Yeah. Five? No, I don't think, I don't know if he's top 15. Oh, come on. Okay. Nagels. I'm going to play a game with you. Let's play a game. Who has more Twitter followers, Xander or X?

I'm going to ask you the first one. Who has more, who has more Twitter Xander or a X, Y, Z player. I'm going to ask you the first one. Who has more Twitter followers, Xander Shoffley or Terrell Hatton? I don't know.

They have the same. It doesn't matter though. I don't like that. Like what world are you living in? Like I'm trying to give you like, like actual society. Nobody knows who Terrell Hatton is. Yes. The same amount of Twitter followers than Xander Shoffley. I don't think that's a metric of what's popular. It's a way. Yeah, it kind of is.

No, it's – come on. Ask Jim Nance. Ask, like, my dad. Ask old people that watch golf. Not –

Give me a break. I'm not playing this game with you because that's not metric. You're such a get off my lawn guy. I'm telling you, here's like hard data that we can talk about, about Xander's popularity. And you're like, ask my dad. That's such bullshit data. Terrell Hatton. It's not even, it's not close. Who do you think has more? Who do you think has more Twitter followers? Max Homa or Xander Shoffley?

Max Homa because he's a Twitter guy. Max Homa has three times more Twitter followers than Xander Shoffley. That's his whole brand. Max Homa. He's good on Twitter. Who has more Twitter followers, Matthew Fitzpatrick or Xander Shoffley? I don't know. Xander by 10K. Who has more Twitter followers, Kevin Kisner or Xander Shoffley? I don't know. Kisner by a lot. Who has more Twitter followers, Tony Finau or Xander Shoffley?

I don't know, which I think you're getting a theme. Xander does not have a Twitter account.

It's his team. It's Ross playing with the buttons. He's not active. He doesn't respond to fans. He's not an active Twitter person. None of these. Okay, Max. He doesn't have a lot of followers because he doesn't engage because that's not his game. Max Homa, fine. I'll give you that. But you could say the same thing about Finau and all these guys that I'm giving you. Hatton. Who has more Twitter followers, Keegan Bradley or Xander Shoffley?

I don't know. Keegan Bradley has four times the amount of Twitter followers as Xander Shoffley. Great for Keegan Bradley. He's clearly more popular than Xander is. No, I think the reason why I bring it up is only, I just think that you have, I think Xander still, he's not like. You still think Xander's under the radar, Andy Lack? That's a terrible take. He's not on the radar. He's a top five American golfer. He won the gold medal.

Everyone knows who he is. Once my Aunt Judy knows about Xander Shoffley, game over. He's mainstream. He's mainstream. He won the gold medal. That changed everything. You think it changed things in a positive, and I'm telling you, it's a fucking negative. Or it could be a negative. It could be a negative if his career doesn't continue to project the way we had hoped it was in 2017 and 18 when we found this guy.

I think that when I say under the radar, I don't think that he is a top 10 to 12 to maybe 15 golfer in terms of popularity and public recognition. But that is, I mean, if your aunt Judy knows who he is now, then maybe I'm wrong. I think he has,

raised his stock a lot, but I still don't think that he is cracking the top 10 of Pip. I still don't think that the PGA Tour is looking at Xander the way that they look at someone like Jordan Spieth. Of course not. Jordan Spieth's like number three. It's Tiger. It's Phil. It's Spieth. It's JT. It's Bryson. It's Brooks.

And then Ricky, for some reason. And then it's Xander. Colin Mark Howard. Like I said, not top five, but probably top ten. And I don't want to make it seem like I'm arguing this. I'm not making a pip argument. I can't tell you how much I don't give a shit about the pip and marketing and all that. I want to win fucking jackets. I want trophies. That's what I care about.

The fact that other people give a shit about all this other bullshit makes me, that's what aggravates me. Because it doesn't matter. Win. It's golf. It's an individual sport. There's no teams. Go out and fucking win. Beat that guy. Beat that guy. Be the best. Show it. That's why I like golf. Because it's manning it. Just go.

Beat that guy. And, yeah, I just don't want him to become a fucking sideshow. And I don't think it's a horrible take. My favorite player by a million miles. I'm in the mix. That's my guy. I just don't want it to go the wrong way. Rocky III, man. Rocky III. Lose that eye to Tiger. I don't want him to lose that eye to Tiger.

Listen, we're on the same page with that. I was speaking to the point that I think the public perception of him and his place in the macro golf world is...

I tend to differ a little bit from you in terms of that, but we're on the same page about what we want for him and what we think is an important next step for him. So what's your official prediction for Xander this year? I don't think you had him as a major. You didn't have him when I listed, when I asked you, you didn't have him, right? Yeah. When you rapid fired me, I didn't list Xander. Yeah, but I would take him in like all four of them. I don't think that... You might be right about that.

U.S. Open, but he always plays well in the U.S. Open, man. I don't think it matters. It's not like his short game's bad. He's fine at the country club. He was pretty good at Pebble. He was pretty good at Pebble. He was almost there. But

So if that's like, if that's the one tournament out of the four majors that we don't like the golf course, the way it sets up for him, well, it's the U S opens. Andrew's been pretty good in the U S open. Yeah. In his career. So that's, that's a good sign. I just want him. I don't know if he can get over the hump. So yeah, I'm leery. I'm just, I'm leery. That's all I'm saying.

I think he might win like twice. But you're going to see, because that Olympics was in July. And then, yeah, there were the playoffs and everything else. But golf season was basically over. And Xander was out of gas. And he didn't play well in the playoffs. And he was flying to Japan. And they went back to Japan. And he needs some time off. And he's getting that. Fine, great. But you're going to see the marketing machine in the spring. And if he plays well with Torrey and he plays well at Phoenix, he's

Fuck, man. They're just going to dial it up. So, yeah, he might not be what you're saying right now, but I really think it's coming. I really do. But, God, I just want him to stay the fuck under the radar. It's not going to happen because he's winning stupid gold medals. I knew he was going to win that medal in screaming. I knew it. It doesn't matter how it affects my life, Andy. All right.

All right, that's it. That's all I got on Xander. Okay. All right, well, let's move on. All right, I'm going to just clear out and set picks for you on this one. Give me 90 seconds on Taylor Swift. What do you think of the new album? Okay, 90 seconds. We can go longer than that, but start the dialogue. All right, well, I should be full disclosure. I should tell you that I'm not like a...

I don't care. I got off my one. I don't care that Taylor is like redoing all her albums or whatever. And I don't get into that whole thing with Scooter and I don't care. Taylor's made a lot of money. She's going to make a lot more. I don't know what, I don't know what's going on with this whole thing with wanting to own her own stuff and like, whatever. I don't know. It's Taylor's version. Like I don't give a shit, but that's,

it shouldn't be understated the impact that that 10 minute version of all too well had on me. All right. That, that version of that song, which was my favorite song before this and the Saturday night live performance. We, we touched on it earlier, but yeah,

The yeah, I listen to that song basically almost every other like all the time because I have like a 12-minute commute to work and it's perfect I pop it in the car and I'm screaming every day driving either to work or home from work or whatever I can't believe that that song got better. That is the one thing that I can't it's unbelievable and

That saw got better because there's so many great lines in the original. And then you add in like there's like another...

Six in the new version. You're listening to the song, you're four minutes in and you're going crazy. This is the greatest song ever. And then there's six minutes left in the song. Song's 10 minutes long. You look at the clock in my car, I'm like, oh my God, there's like six minutes left in the song. I can't get over that. So that is like sensory overload for me, but it's all positive. And I love it so much.

The other, I don't care about, everything else is kind of nonsense to me as far as the new, the Taylor's version. And I don't, that's, that's not a thing for me. There's a couple of songs. I, you sent me the one song and I heard that.

That had like a real country music feel to it. And I know Taylor has the country music roots and everything else. I'm not stupid, but I'm not really a country music guy. Although there are some songs that I like. I just, the, the, the new version of red with the 10 minute version of all too well, which is the greatest song I think she's ever written. That's her masterpiece. It really gets me. So yeah,

Back to you, Andy. So I don't claim to be the level of Taylor fan that you are, but I'm definitely in on Taylor. So I feel like slightly less biased. I thought the album was phenomenal. I mean, I don't want to be hyperbolic about it and say it was like the best album of the last 10 years or it was even her best album. But I found that they were maybe two or three songs that I wasn't that into and the rest were

bangers. And there were, there were a couple of really good ones that stood out to me that I hadn't heard before. I thought I almost do as unbelievable. Like I told you, I think that song is really underrated. I liked, I liked Ronan. I loved better man, which I hadn't heard before. I thought better man was awesome. And yeah,

I'm sorry. I know it's kind of poppy and maybe not her most interesting song lyrically, but I think the very first night is also an absolute banger. So those are my highlights from Red Taylor's version. That's a lot. That's a lot, Andy. I listened to it in the gym, which may sound odd to people, but I find it pretty soothing. My relationship with Taylor is very... Maybe it's not unique, but...

And people give me shit, 45 years old, and why, how am I such a Swifty? Can I try to set the record straight here? Because I wasn't into Taylor when she was on the rise, when she was a kid. This is relatively new to me.

I was going through my divorce and I was over at my sister's house. I obviously knew who Taylor Swift was. In fact, when I went to one taping of a live of Saturday Night Live in the studio and Taylor Swift, that was, I think it was the first time that she hosted. She was the host and the musical guest. So I'm like, oh, Taylor Swift. All right, that'll be, that'll be fine. That had no impact on me. Like, oh my God, Taylor Swift. I didn't care. Like I wasn't that.

That was a long time ago. But I just want to say that I was at my sister's house and my sister's got two young kids at the time and they were playing Blank Space and my sister's got the music freaking cranked and she's dancing with the kids. And I was like, oh, who sings this song? I said, oh, it's Taylor Swift. I'm like, oh, I know Taylor Swift. You know what? I like that Love Story song. I always liked that one. So this was on the new album or whatever. And

And I start hearing, start looking into Taylor and hearing all these songs and Reputation, I think, had just come out.

And bad blood and look what you made me do. And all these songs that are just like, made me think of what I was going through with my ex-wife and look what she fucking made me do. And yeah, we do have bad blood. And I was just like, man, Taylor, she freaking gets me. This girl is unbelievable. I just got, just went into it more and more and went back to old albums. And then I hear all too well. And I was just like, holy shit.

this is unbelievable. I can't believe there's one person wrote all this stuff. This is like everything that I'm going through that I felt that I've been like, I've been through all that stuff. So it just always resonated with me on a level that no one has ever like,

I've never had that before. I've been a big, huge Dave Matthews fan since I was in college, going back 20 years and 25 years. And Dave always has these special lyrics, and they're so meaningful to a lot of people. And yeah, there's a lot of good stuff about life and happiness and seizing the day and all that stuff. But nothing like romantic...

I'm a hopeless romantic, Andy Lack, and I've had women that have loved me that I didn't care for, or women I loved that didn't care for me, and I just know that, I know that feeling. I know that pain, and it resonates with me, and I just, I can't believe that somebody gets it, and wrote about it, and put it to music, and the rest is history. And I just, I fucking love her. I'm so thankful that she exists.

And I'm happy for her and her personal life. I don't care who she's dating. I don't care who she dated. That's not what it's about. I don't think she's some like hot chick. I'm in love with her. No, this is on a macro level. Like we talk about that. I can't believe that she had those feelings inside her that she put the paper and it's almost identical to what I went through in my life.

And I feel that. And that's all it is. And, but holy shit on Saturday night live boy, she looked good. That might've been the first time I looked at her and be like, Oh my God, she is fucking beautiful. But yeah, she's 30 years old now. She's not 14. So no, I didn't have a thing for her since she was a kid. Cause I'm, that's not me either. So anyway,

Thank you for the time. That's all my Taylor stuff. I love her. I love all too well. I want to see her in concert, a real concert. I was going to go up to Boston in 2020. It got freaking canceled, and I'm waiting to go see Taylor at MetLife Stadium or wherever I can because I need to experience that, and I'm looking forward to it. So that's that story.

Thanks for listening, Andy. I appreciate it. That was beautiful. I have, I have, uh, I have nothing else to add. That's a, that's a great way to end. That'll do it. All right, buddy. What do you got to plug in January for the, uh, tournament of champions? I'll be back Wednesday nights at eight o'clock on the old Twitter.

Or on YouTube, Nagels Bagels. You can find me. And we're going to do our – we're going to break down our DraftKings lineup. We're going to break down the golf courses and things in the past. We're going to start up the Listener League again, which is really hard to win. And we're going to start the – get ready for the one and done. All the things that we're all going to do every week. We're going to start the grind from January all the way to the freaking FedEx Cup and the wonderful Tour Championship.

And just come along for the journey. People seem to like the show. So let's have some fun. Jeff Nagels. Good to see you, my friend.

All right, that will do it. That is my final podcast of the year. Once again, I'm so grateful for all the support, the ratings, the reviews, the retweets, the quote tweets, the individual messages. I cannot tell you guys how much that means to me and how much it helps when you share the show. So thank you. And I hope you have a wonderful holidays. Enjoy the break from golf. I may pop up

as a guest at a couple places but for the most part you won't hear from me at least on this podcast feed till that first week of january we're coming back with the bang i'm hoping to do the solo previews every week and i've got a bunch of great guests all the classics already lined up to get the season started until then happy holidays enjoy the football enjoy this time with your family and we'll see you soon cheers

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