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All right. Welcome in. My name is Andy Lack. This is the 2022 Masters Betting and DFS Preview. We have made it.
It's Masters Week. If you are new, welcome. This podcast is presented by RickRungood.com. All of the stats and tools, all of my written content can be found over at RickRungood.com. I would highly recommend signing up for the weekly pass this week. It's only $7 and you can get complete...
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So masters week is huge. Obviously, obviously it's a, it's really the, the best window I have to grow the show, which I'm naturally reluctant to do. Shout out 90 minute John Mayer podcasts. Um, so, but I am giving away free money this week at the masters. I, I,
I have some cool golf stuff, like clothing and stuff from cool golf clubs, but I figure most people probably would just rather have money. So I will be PayPal-ing. It has to be PayPal. $200. Probably going to do this
I don't know, maybe four times a year, if that, at the Masters. But literally all you have to do is leave a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. That's it. Just a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. You do have to leave your email address or Twitter handle in the review so I know how to contact you. And I'm not going to tweet this out or anything. I genuinely want this to be for people that actually listen to the show. So...
Even if you've done it before, even if you've left a review before, do it again. I'm only using the ones for this week and the deadline is Sunday. So I will announce the winner on next week's show, but all you have to do five-star review on Apple podcasts. It takes literally two seconds. If you have Twitter and you also retweet the show and follow inside golf podcasts on Twitter, you,
That's not going to hurt your chances. I will say that. I want to get that Twitter account up to like 5,000 followers. There should be as many followers to that account as there are listeners. So five-star review, Apple podcast literally takes two seconds and you will be entered into the draw. Make sure to leave your email address or Twitter handle, like I said, so I know how to contact you.
I rarely ever do this stuff, as you know, but it's Masters Week and JJ Spahn at 210 to one is going to win tomorrow. Anyway, that's a joke. I mean, I haven't watched one second of this golf tournament. So, I mean, I like the position that he's in, but I've been so locked into my Masters prep, obviously, but I actually have...
Low-key good Valero week so far. We might be percolating at the right time. I've got five guys, including JJ, who's tied for the lead, within four strokes heading into tomorrow. What could go wrong? All above 40-1, by the way. So randomly good Valero week. I think we might be heating up at the right time. Honestly, it would be pretty criminal to spend...
any more time talking about that tournament. Um,
Who cares at the end of the day? Because we're already in the swing of things with the Masters. All right. So let's talk about Juice Reel real quick, and then we'll dive into the Masters. All right. Juice Reel. So essentially, anywhere you bet, whether it's DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, Barstool, whatever, even Offshores, you can sink it too. All of your bets and your bet history automatically load into this app in seconds.
So you can keep track of all of your bets in one place without having to manually type them in or keep them in spreadsheets like I had been doing. It gets better though. You can get all of your analytics. You can see your historical profits and losses, how you've done on straight bets versus parlays and teasers, even like what your worst teams or players are. So if you want to find out how much money you've lost betting on the Knicks, you
You can do that. If you want to find out like, Hey, are these parlays that I keep doing? Are they actually working?
Juice Reel also crowdsources Insights. It syncs all of the other users into the app. So like for an NFL game, for example, you can see what side the best performing users are on. You could see what side the worst performing users are on. So it actually takes like the public betting charts that they have even a step further where you can actually get to see, okay, this is the side that the right people are on. This is the side that the wrong people are on. And
It's also a great place to line shop. Juicereal shows you how lines vary across different books. There's arbitrage opportunities where sometimes the lines at different sports books will vary and you can find instances where you can bet certain amounts on the same bet at different books to guarantee profit. And then there's
I think the coolest thing that I liked the most was they have this live value tracker where once you place a bet and the game is underway, you could actually watch the value of your bet fluctuate with every play. It's literally like you've got that real time stock for portfolio ask feature that you can't get anywhere else. And it is incredibly useful for figuring out if it's the right time to hedge the whole app, uh,
is basically just designed to give you a million different tools to help you as a better and make you more informed and smarter. It's really cool. I'm really proud to partner with them and it is completely and entirely 100% free. So check out Juicereal in the app store. I'm usually pretty picky about these partnerships. I'm not ever going to promote something that I don't actually use. I just...
I think people can see right through that and it comes off as inauthentic, but I felt this one was incredibly smart, incredibly aligned with the stuff that I talk about every week. So download Juice Reel on the app store and boom, all of these insights into your betting habits and how to become a better bettor. All right, let's get back to the show. Okay, the masters. Here's the thing. I think this is probably the hardest episode ever.
to do of the year for me, because a, I think people already know what the deal is with Augusta national is probably the most recognizable and overanalyzed golf course on the face of the planet. So you're going to hear a ton of things this week, and it's pretty much going to be everyone repeating themselves over and over again with the same stuff. And that's not to say that that stuff isn't correct or useful or important because it is, but
But I tried to think, okay, how can I approach this from a little bit of a different angle and talk about some things that I don't think people are going to talk about as it pertains to this golf course? Because what happens in a week like this is there's 10 times more content this week than in a given week, maybe more. 10 could be light.
and that revs up the groupthink angle even more. And ownership is really going to condense around a couple guys. People are going to bet the same people. And to me, I think that creates opportunity. So I'm taking a pretty big stand this week. There's a narrative that I'm going to run with, and probably about 80% of the guys that I'm playing this week
fit this criteria. And if I'm wrong, that's fine. Would not be the first time, but I'm going to take an angle and run with it and maybe try and present some information that
Uh, that hasn't been talked about a ton yet. Um, but first let's talk about the basics, uh, and give the broader picture here. So let's, let's start with the former winners. Last year, we had a decky 45 to one. If you remember who Jackie was not playing the best golf coming in here, 2020, we had, uh, the November masters were DJ one at 20 under par. He was nine to one.
He was playing great 2019. Who could forget was Tiger Woods. You could find him all over the place, but I think he closed at 16 to one 2018. Patrick Reed was 55 to one 2017. Sergio Garcia, 45 to one.
2016, Danny Willett, 66-1. 2015, Jordan Spieth, 12-1. 2014, Bubba Watson, 28-1. 2013, Adam Scott, 28-1. 2012, Bubba Watson, 58-1. So the biggest thing that stood out to me, so over the last 10 years, only one player above 66-1 has won the Masters, and it was Danny Willett. And I think the perception of Willett is that
Willett was some crazy long shot, but Willett was playing some really good golf. He had just won on the European tour. He just finished third at a WGC. It would be like the equivalent of Tyrell Hatton or Matt Fitzpatrick, who you'll probably be able to find at some places at 66 to one or higher this week winning, right? Like, which would be
A surprise, right? But they're still top 30 players in the world. Will was a top 30 player in the world at the time. And he was the biggest surprise of the past 10 years. And it hasn't been a lot of favorites either. DJ was 9-1. Spieth was 12-1. Tiger was 16-1. And that price was obviously inflated. But seven of the last 10 years, the winner has come from between 20 and 70-1.
So that middle tier. And each of the last 10 winners have ranked inside the top 30 in the official world golf ranking. So like I've already said about the Masters, there's going to be a lot of top 30 players in the world this week that you're going to be able to get between 20 and 60 and 70 to one. And historically, at least recently, those are the players that have been winning the Masters.
All right, let's dive into some of the basics of the golf course. Augusta National Golf Club was designed by Alistair McKenzie and Bobby Jones in 1933 with multiple redesign tinkering efforts. There was some stuff done by Fazio in 2008. Fazio kind of oversees a lot of the changes. There was some more stuff that was done this year. We'll talk about all of it.
But it's a par 72. Now it measures 7,510 yards. Water comes into play on five holes. The fairways are ryegrass. The rough, which is pretty much non-existent, is 1.38 inches ryegrass. So nothing really. The greens are 6,486 square feet on average with pure bentgrass. First time we see bentgrass all year.
And they run 14 miles per hour on the step, making them probably the fastest green set players we'll see all year outside of maybe the U S open. So, uh,
Over time, you look at the scoring average of the last couple of years and even throwing out the November Masters, it's gotten a little bit easier, right? Last year, it was 73.06. So that was a little bit harder than the past three years, which was in the high 71s and the 72s. It's...
It's got, it's changed a lot, right? This, the masters has changed, changed a lot over the years. So there are a lot of, uh, changes that happened this year that I want to highlight. So let's start there. Um, I think this is important and I, uh,
It's getting talked about, obviously, by the fried eggs of the world. But I don't know how much this is going to get talked about on gambling or DFS podcast. But I actually think it has an impact. Not a huge impact, but it's a piece of the puzzle. And it's part of the angle that I'm taking on how you want to handicap this tournament. So the 11th, the 15th, and the 18th holes have changed.
Um, the 11th hole was changed from 505 to 520 yards long. The tee was moved back 15 yards and to the golfers left, the fairway was recontoured and several trees were removed on the right side. So basically you're going to have more room off the tee. It's going to be a wider landing area for your tee shot, but you're going to have a longer approach shot in. So Rory visited the property last week and,
And he said he was hitting a four iron and a six iron in now to the par four 11th. And Rory is one of the longest players on tour. So that hole is going to be a beast. And you saw guys like Rory hitting seven and eight iron there last year. And even the longest players are going to have a mid to long iron in. Here's what Rory had to say.
It's obviously a longer hole. The fairway is much wider. So even if you miss right, you still have a chance to hit the green. The green complexes are the same, but the surrounds of the green are much more penal so that the bailout right is a much more difficult shot than it used to be. Overall, I think it's going to play tougher than it has in the previous year. And it was already one of the toughest holes on the course. So that hole is going to play longer and more difficult.
The 15th has been extended from 530 to 550 yards. So that's the par five, which now this hole might be a little bit more difficult to reach into now. Probably not for the longer hitters. And some of the longest hitters were hitting like seven iron into this hole. They made it a little bit longer. And then the 18th.
got lengthened also by 13 yards. And they also made modifications to the third, 13th, and 17th greens. And they took out a lot more rough too. So there's more shaved areas around the greens. So what does this all mean? I think that distance off the team matters even more now. I think that you're going to have a longer approach shot into 11.
The 15th hole is going to be a little bit harder to reach in two if you don't hit a good drive. And the 15th green is that green. It's going to be hard to hold if you don't have a high ball flight with a long iron. I think you're going to have a harder time holding that green in two. You're going to have a little bit of a longer approach shot on 18-2. So just looking at those changes, I'm already saying to myself, okay,
Maybe distance and long iron play matters just a little bit more this year. Now let's talk about the weather. This is the other big thing that I think you have to factor in. I'm recording this on Saturday. A lot can change. I realize that. So check back later in the week in my Wednesday article where we will absolutely have more information at our disposal. But where things stand now, so this area of Georgia,
has gotten a ton of rain in the past month. And I was pre-recording something with Bamford earlier on Friday morning, and he told me Augusta had gotten 5.27 inches of rain in March, which is the most rain that they've gotten since 2014. And on Tuesday and Wednesday of Master's Week,
There's an 80 to 90% chance of rain from 2 p.m. Tuesday to 2 a.m. Wednesday morning. So, you know, the grounds crew does an excellent job here. They work their ass off to get this course playing firm and fast. But I will say I had a very much incorrect view of sub air in my head leading into the players.
totally hand up on that one. Definitely man enough here to admit when I'm wrong. And I made some new friends that week and learned a lot more about the machinations of how it actually works. And I am definitely done overrating subair. It absolutely has its limitations. It also can work really well at drying out a course overnight, but it's
as what I was underrating at the players, if you're going to have consecutive rainfall, if you're going to have 12 hours of consecutive rainfall, Tuesday night of tournament week, uh,
There's only so much it can do. And even if it does help firm up the greens, which my prediction is that they will start off pretty receptive on Thursday and Friday. And then on Saturday and Sunday, they start to firm up. And by Sunday, they're perfect, which is kind of what we saw in the 2019 Masters game.
When Tiger won and the 2017 with Sergio, where it was pretty receptive and soft on Thursday and Friday, and then it firmed up over the weekend. And that's what I think is going to happen this year too. But the big thing here is that even if the greens are able to firm up a little bit as the week goes on,
The fairways are going to stay soft this week. And the way that they mow the grass at Augusta is another good one. I learned from Steve yesterday. They mow the grass in the opposite direction to already limit the rollout. So what does this all mean? What is this all sort of adding up to? I think it means this course is going to play really fucking long. And I know like the apex distance thing is kind of like a bit, uh,
Um, I get it, but I really think you want to have guys with a high ball fight this week because I think this course is going to play longer than it ever has. I mean, that's a certainty obviously, because they went in some holes, but we've gotten more rain than we have in nearly a decade. Right. And we're getting a ton of rainfall the week of masters. So how the, how the hell are they going to dry out these fairways?
There's no way. So when you combine the changes with the softness of the fairways, and if you get into a situation where the greens do firm up a little bit over the weekend, and now you have soft fairways and firm greens and some wind, that's going to be fucking awesome. Like that's going to be a ton of fun. So let's talk about the wind too. Let's look at the actual weather for when the tournament starts. And I realized this could change. I'm recording this on Saturday.
But Thursday, 21 mile per hour wind gusts with scattered thunderstorms. So a little more rain, soft golf course. We might have a weather delay in there on Thursday, right? A little bit more rain and kind of windy. Friday, no more rain. That's the end of the rain for the week. 66 degrees, but wind gusts up to 32 miles per hour with an average of 12 miles per hour.
I think this is when Friday afternoon is probably when the course will start firming up a little bit. And it's going to be windy on Friday. The windiest day will be Friday. Saturday, 68 and sunny, wind gusts up to 28 miles per hour, average of nine miles per hour. So still pretty windy. And then on Sunday, Sunday will be pristine. But the greens will also be the firmest that they've been all week. But it will be the least windy day.
So why am I saying all this? Why am I spending any time at this? Well, when did Augusta ask any player is really tough for players to figure out. And apparently there's a westerly wind this week, which my friend Twitter list, Steve told me creates the toughest conditions and you read all the player quotes. They talk about how tricky it is to judge the wind at the masters because there's all those trees and the wind swirls and the
You see it every single year on 12 where the wind picks up and suddenly you're raised creek and it dies down and suddenly you're in that bunker. Again, why do I think any of this is important? Well, here's my takeaway from this very elite course changes and weather report of my 20 person player pool and draft Kings, probably 17 or 18 of them will hit the ball really long and high.
I just think that the combination of the colder weather, the course changes, the soft fairways, this course is going to play closer to 7,800 yards or 7,900 yards than it will to 7,400 or 7,500 yards. It already does under normal conditions because the way they mow the fairways. I think this is going to be the longest this course has ever played. So this week I'm going really heavy on guys who hit the ball far.
I'm going heavier on guys who hit the ball high. I'm going heavy on guys who hit the ball, hit their long irons really well. And I'm going really heavy on experience too, because in my opinion, when the wind kicks up on 12, I want guys that have experienced that at Augusta and understand, okay, this is what a westerly wind means. This is how it's going to affect my ball. So yeah, it's probably...
It's probably not going to get talked about in many other podcasts this week about these wind and turf conditions. But I think the turf conditions really matter this week. But that's just me. I'm not a tout. I don't sell picks.
I don't care what you do. This is simply my interpretation of how the weather is going to affect play and the turf conditions are going to affect play. You can do whatever the hell you want with that. It's an aggressive angle that I'm taking. And if I'm right, I'm going to have a really good week. And if I'm wrong, that's fine too. But that's what I'm doing long and high.
Right. That's that's all I'm doing this week. All right. So let's talk about some of the stats and what I'm looking for this week. OK, so first thing that I want to talk about, the first myth that I want to dispel. Do you need to be in good form to win the Masters? So 2007 to 2010, Zach Johnson, Trevor Immelman, Angel Cabrera, Phil Mickelson really weren't playing that well.
And same with Hideki last year. Hideki was not playing that well heading into the Masters. He miscut at the players, group stage exit at the match play, 30th at the Vuelo Texas Open. But outside of Hideki, basically every single player who won the Masters between 2020, between, sorry, 2010 and 2020,
Had been playing really fucking well. So 2020 DJ had three wins already that year. 2019 Tiger just finished fifth at the match play 10th at a WGC. That's another thing that is driving me crazy.
If you are comparing what Tiger did in 2019 as an argument for why he's going to play well this week, you are Looney Tunes. Tiger was playing great in 2019. He won the tour championship in September. He just gained eight strokes on approach at a WGC like two weeks prior. He hasn't played a competitive round in 17 months this time and had another major surgery. It's different.
You can't compare them. Anyway, Reed went second at Innisbrook, seventh at Bay Hill, ninth at the match play. Sergio won in Dubai. Willett won in Dubai. Spieth won at Innisbrook, had two runner-ups and six top tens that season. Spieth was on fire. Bubba was on fire. Bubba won at Riviera, second at Scottsdale, second at Doral.
Adam Scott was third at Doral. He was playing great. Bubba in 2012 was playing great. Fifth at Scottsdale, second at Doral, fourth at Bay Hill. And Carl Schwarzl just won the Joburg Open and had two other top tens. So 10 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 30 at least one of their two starts before arriving in Augusta.
And nine of the last 10 had a top 15 in a stroke play event in the two months leading into the Masters. So I'm not a let's eliminate someone because they don't fit a trend guy. But I think it's worth noting that lead in form is really important at the Masters. So my verdict is Hideki was a bit of an anomaly there.
Like six of the last 10 winners of the masters already had a win this season. So I really think you want to look at someone that is coming in playing great golf. Another mini myth. Do you have to have good major form? So this would apply to guys like can't lay, I guess, and Sam Burns and Victor Hovland a little bit who haven't really done it in majors yet. Nine of the last 10 winners, uh,
have posted a top six in another major in the previous two seasons. Even Danny Willett, six at the British Open the previous year. So I think you want to look at guys who have played well in major championships in general. It's just a different vibe this week. So I'm looking at total major resume, not just at Augusta, but in general.
One thing I looked at this week was major form in general, right? Like how have players done at US Opens recently, at British Opens recently, at PGA Championships recently? I think it's a hell of a lot easier to have never been good in a major before and then suddenly pop off at the PGA Championship than it is at the Masters.
And we'll get to the course experience stuff in a second. So let's run through what else I think is really important at Augusta. So let's talk about off the tee here. So I already alluded to the fact that I'm taking a stand with driving distance here. And I am not going to look at regular strokes gain off the tee at all this week. I don't think it matters this week. Why? Because it's really fucking easy to hit the fairways here.
Augusta ranked 26th out of 40th in strokes gained difficulty off the tee. It has the third-widest fairways on the PGA Tour. Driving accuracy is almost 70%.
And we had four guys in the top 10 last year, Leishman, Reed, and Finau that didn't even finish in the top 35 in strokes gained off the tee. So I don't care if you're a super accurate driver of the ball. I think that skill is somewhat mitigated here. I do care if you are long and hit it really high.
And we have this debate about distance at Augusta every year, right? Where who can forget Zach Johnson winning in 2007 by never hitting any of the par fives into. And then we have Bryson come along and say, it's a par 67. And I don't think either of those examples are really the best, right? Like Bryson shot himself in the foot and,
And from a ball striking perspective, Bryson should be able to dominate this course. And he kind of low key has like he gained four strokes off the T last year without even playing well, could not chip or putt. And with Zach, there's always going to be some exceptions to the rule where you're just going to have a guy that has a magical wedge and putter week. Maybe it's bizayden out. Maybe it's Kevin Na this week.
Maybe it's Kevin Kisner. Maybe it's Brian Harbin. Maybe it's Patrick Reed. Maybe it's Jordan Spieth. Right. And how did Patrick Reed win the masters? Well,
Patrick Reed won the masters the same way that he won at Torrey Pines in Doral, which are also massive golf courses. He made a bajillion putts and chipped in. Same with Spieth, who also won the U.S. Open at a 7,500-yard Chambers bet. It's not undoable if you aren't long off the tee, but you're fooling yourself if you think it doesn't help to be long, specifically this year. Like in a normal year,
if Georgia hadn't gotten a ton of rain and the fairways were firm and like players talk about this all the time to answer, just talked about this on a podcast where if courses have firm fairways game on, let's go for answer. But when it's soft, my path is so much harder, right? So, um,
I'm not at the point where I'm looking like super heavy into apex stats. I think that's a statistic that has its limitations, but like Bamford mentioned this too, we've got like 10 years of data where these guys that win the masters also rate out highly in distance to apex. And I think this year with all the rain and the lengthening of the course, we're,
I'm just going to take a stand with this narrative and 80% of the guys that I play are going to check this box for me. All right, approach. So how many times are we going to hear this week? Augusta is a second shot golf course. I cannot argue with that. I already alluded to how driving accuracy is not important to me this week. A lot of players are going to be able to keep the ball and play off the tee here, which is going to place the emphasis on the second shot.
Um, so this course ranks six out of 40th in strokes, gain difficulty on approach greens and regulation percents here, 60% compared to the tour average of 66% 10th hardest greens to hit last year. Uh, and it's definitely a mid to long iron course. I think more so this year than years past, but last year, 23% of approaches came from one 50 to one 75, 21% came from one 75 to 200, uh,
31 came from 200 plus. So again, I'm really heavy on mid to long iron play this week. I really think you need to be able to hit those long irons well. Around the green, kind of feel like short game's almost underrated here where everyone talks so much about approach. I am basically just as heavy on around the greens as I am on approach this week. This course ranks number one in strokes gain difficulty around the green on the PGA Tour, number one.
It ranks number one in strokes gained around the green difficulty from the fairway. So these tightly mown areas, there's nothing harder than chipping out of these tightly mown areas. And guess what you're going to have to do more of this year? You're going to have to chip more out of these tightly mown areas because with the changes, they took away even more rough.
and it also ranks sixth in around the green difficulty from the bunkers. So Augusta's bunkers are very deep as well. You're going to need to be a good bunker player here. And you look at the leaderboard last year, Hideki was fourth around the green. Spieth was third around the green. Zandra was third around the green. Leishman was seventh. Rahm was ninth. The top 10 players in around the green last year were
finished third, 10th, third, first, 21st, 18th, 5th, 10th, 5th, 12th. So yeah, I think it's safe to say that short game really fucking matters. There were actually more guys in the top 10 last year popping around the green than they were on approach. You've got to have a killer short game here. Like Hovland, I'm out. I'm just out right now. And Hovland even
fits the narrative that I'm looking for perfectly with the high ball flight, right? And bombs it off the tee and good long iron player. But guess what? There are a bunch of other guys like Rory, like John Rom, like Brooks, like Dustin Johnson, even JT and can't lay hit the ball plenty long. All those guys have way better fucking short games in Hovland. So why would I play this guy that has this massive liability and,
when he's now traveling to the number one most difficult around the green course on the PGA Tour. Why would I do that? That's not to say he can't play well here. You know, how he is able to contend in golf tournaments overcoming this massive liability in his game is honestly fucking remarkable. But yeah, you can overcome a shitty short game at Mykova. Hell, you can even overcome a shitty short game at TPC Sawgrass.
A little bit harder, as we saw, to overcome a shitty short game at Bay Hill. That really nailed him down the stretch. I mean, he would have won at Bay Hill by five if he had any semblance of a short game. So I don't know if he can overcome it here. If he's like 6%, yeah, maybe I'll have a little. But as of now, he's a cross off. Those tightly mown chip shots and deep bunkers into fast undulating greens. Like, no thanks. I'm out.
putting. So Augusta has probably the coolest and most interesting green complexes that we're going to see all year. I could do a whole other podcast on these green complexes alone. I've had the joy of playing two original Alistair McKenzie courses over the last couple of months. And these greens, they are like nothing these guys are going to see anywhere else. They are super fast, super undulating. And yet...
I'm not sold that you have to be an awesome putter to win the Masters. Obviously, you don't because look at Sergio and look at Hideki and look at Adam Scott. Now, last year, it did rank fourth in strokes gain putting difficulty and six in difficulty from five to 15 feet and second in difficulty from 15 feet and above. Probably the most difficult course in terms of lag putting on the PGA Tour. So three putt avoidance is a good one this week.
But honestly, I think the reason why it rates out that highly is I just think that's because Augusta is so much harder than every other PGA Tour course at everything. So yeah, the greens are, except off the tee. So yeah, the greens are tricky at Augusta. But I think if you like bent grass and guys like Hideki and Adam Scott have always been a little bit better in bent grass, then
I think guys can figure it out. So I'm going to look a little bit at bent grass putting, a little bit at three putt avoidance, and a little bit at fast green putting because these greens are uber fast. But I actually think the best metric you have for measuring if you are going to putt well at Augusta is actually course experience. These greens are so incredibly nuanced. They're so incredibly nuanced. They are singular. And there's so many good quotes about this too.
But I actually don't think how you are as a putter is super predictive of how you are going to putt at Augusta. What do I mean by this? These greens get described as like this. I don't know. It's weird the way players talk about these greens. You have to almost learn them. You can never master them, but you have to learn them over time.
So yeah, I'll look a little bit at backgrass putting and fast green putting and three-putt avoidance. But at the end of the day, the best way that I would describe putting at Augusta National and how you want to maybe look at putting at Augusta National, and this is an extreme example, I guess. But if you asked me who's more likely to putt well at the Masters, Denny McCarthy, who is the best putter on the PGA Tour statistically,
but has never played the masters before. And he's not, he's not in the field this week. I'm just using this as an example or Hideki who is objectively a bad putter, but has played the masters like 10 times. I'd probably take Hideki if that makes sense. Right? So I think the best way to predict putting at the masters is experience, right? It's, it's,
The first time putting on these greens, like you don't, you don't know. You can look at back grass a little bit and fast green putting and three putt avoidance and, and help us get a picture, but we just don't know. A couple other things about the course before I tell you who's going to win. Fourth hardest par threes on tour last year. Second hardest par fours on tour. 22nd hardest par fives on tour. So one thing that you're going to hear a lot about this week is how you've got to score on the par fives. And yes, the,
To a certain extent, that's true. I will be looking at par five scoring, but it's really more so about surviving on the par fours and avoiding bogeys on the par fours. And my guy Bamford had a great stat about par four birdie or better percentage and how that was correlated. And I generally have a pretty hard time rectifying par four scoring as a useful stat. There's just, there's too much variance for me, but yeah,
Maybe there's something to that here. Maybe it's not as much about the par fives. Maybe you want to spend more time looking at like general bogey avoidance and try and identify the players that are just really good at avoiding mistakes. So I've got a little par five scoring, but I'm also looking more so at bogey avoidance. And then finally, course history. Another thing that you will hear a million times, Augusta has the most predictive course history. Yes, that is true.
Um, we haven't had a first time winner at the masters since fuzzy Zoller in 1979. I think that's going to change at some point. The game has gotten so much more competitive and how talented some of these young guys are. I mean, Zalator's almost pulled it off last year, but for the most part, you probably want to find guys that have been here at least a couple of times. So eight of the last 10 winners have played in at least three masters and
Spieth in 2015, who was just playing at such an insane level, and Willett in 2016, both won on their second appearance, which is very rare. And seven of the last 10 winners had posted a previous top 10 at the Masters. Nine of the last 10 winners had posted a previous top five. Willett was the lone exception. He was 38th in his first appearance. But I will say this, there is going to be someone
Maybe it's Cameron Young or Seamus Power or Sam Burns or Taylor Gooch that shows up for the first time here and finishes top 20. Maybe top five. Maybe wins. I doubt it. But maybe top five. Definitely top 20. Probably multiple guys top 20. And that guy is going to go super under-owned because he's a debutante. So one thing that I was looking at
I think there are a couple of courses that even if you haven't played well at Augusta yet, or you haven't played Augusta at all, I think there are a couple of courses we can look at that may be able to help us identify lower price guys. So how you've done at Kapalua, how you've done at Riviera and how you've done at Muirfield village, uh,
There's a lot of crossover there in terms of the guys that have popped up at both courses. Kapalua is another course where distance is heavily favored over accuracy. Cam Smith, John Rahm, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Xander Shoffley, Adam Scott. Those guys have been awesome at Kapalua and obviously awesome at Augusta.
Same thing with Muirfield Village, which Jack Nicklaus has talked about how he took inspiration from Augusta. And Muirfield Village has really wide fairways. And there's more of an emphasis on mid to long iron play and short game. And you look at the guys that have been the best at Muirfield Village. Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Patrick Reed's even been great at Muirfield. Xander, Rory, Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Mark Leishman.
Same thing with Riviera. More difficult scoring conditions. Probably helps if you hit the ball a long way. Mid to long irons. Difficult around the greens. And you look at the guys that have played well at Riviera. Adam Scott. Bubba Watson. DJ. Rory. Xander. Rom. Justin Rose again. Mark Leishman again. Finau again. Cam Smith again. What do you know? Those guys, all awesome at Augusta. So...
I think a good example for this is what about someone like Joaquin Neiman, who just won at Riviera and finished top five at Kapalua, but has only played Augusta twice and went miscut 40th. Maybe that's a sign that good stuff is to come for Neiman at Augusta in the future. Same with Max Homa, right? Only been to Augusta twice, two miscuts, but again,
Max Homa has been awesome at Riviera. Same with Morikawa. Morikawa has been great at Riviera. Morikawa has been great at Kapalua. Hasn't really done a ton yet at Augusta. Only played there twice, but maybe it's a sign that Augusta is a better fit for him than he may get credit for.
What about Cameron Young, right? Who has no course history at Augusta, but just finished second at Riviera, right? So I think maybe just looking a little bit at those three courses, the parallels you'll find are pretty distinctive. All right. So I threw all of this together. And for the full model breakdown and inputs, check out the Monday article on rickrungood.com, coupon code Andy. But I decided to be really aggressive this week on distance and long iron play.
Right. And I'm not telling you to do that. Right. Do whatever you want. This is just what I'm doing. But I think distance, long arm play, course history and short game. That's it. I don't I'm willing to forgive anything else pretty much. And by the way, there's only two players in this entire field. Only two, which is a little surprising, but.
that are top 20 in the distance metric that I created, the course experience metric that I created, the weighted short game category that I have, and my weighted long iron play category. Those two players are Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy. And those two players are the two players at the top of the model for me this week. Number one, Justin Thomas. Number two, Rory McIlroy. Number three, Jon Rahm. Four, Cameron Smith.
five Scotty Scheffler, six Taylor Gooch, who we'll talk about. He's interesting to me because he's so mispriced in DraftKings, but might be like 3%. Patrick Cantlay, number seven, Daniel Berger, number eight, Xander Schauffele, number nine, Adam Scott, 10, Hideki Matsuyama, 11, Sam Burns, 12, Paul Casey, 13,
Louis Ustaz in 14. Will Zalatorre's 15. Shane Lowry, 16. Luke List, 17. Dustin Johnson, 18. Harold Varner, 19. And who did I have as 20? It was actually Harris English who withdrew. Joaquin Neiman. Okay. All right. Early leans. And we have pricing and we have odds.
So I have bet one player to win the Masters. It was not a futures bet. I bet him on Friday morning. And it is the same player that I said is going to win the Masters in December. And it's the same player that is number one in my model this week. And that's Justin Thomas. And I think Justin Thomas is going to win the Masters. Now, Justin Thomas has been good at the Masters.
He's made the cut every single year. He's got five top 25 finishes with a fourth in 2020. I bet Justin Thomas at the Masters last year, too. I thought that bet was looking great. And then we hit a weather delay. And Justin Thomas, who was two strokes off the lead, making a charge. Suddenly, it's fucking invasion of the body snatchers. And he makes an eight on his first golf hole out of the weather delay.
and loses all of his momentum so i don't know you know i think his 21st place finish last year maybe a little bit misleading he was he was right there people were people were saying like oh just like here comes jt and then the weather delay happened and hideki went apeshit but jt is the number one guy in my model this week he's long off the t he's plenty long off the t
And what's the one thing we worry about Justin Thomas that he gets a little wild. I think that's fine here. He's still one of the best iron players in the world. Um, specifically from 150 yards plus there might not be a better mid to long iron player in this entire field than Justin Thomas. When we factor in long irons, because JT is a little bit better from like 200 to 25 plus even the more calla.
He's got a great short game that I trust. He's good out of the bunkers. He takes advantage of par fives. And yes, if we're picking knits, it's obviously the putters, but he's actually been a really good lag putter and he's putted okay at the masters before. So he's coming off the group stage exit at the match play, which I hoped would maybe affect his betting number and his ownership.
It doesn't look like it's going to do that. He's going to be 20% at least. And with Rory and Spieth playing like shit and the injury concerns around Hideki and Bryson playing like shit and the injury concerns around him, you needed one of those guys to really pop at the Valero to maybe get some drift on JT.
And that's going to hurt everyone because now they're just going to put Hideki at like 45 to one if Hideki even plays. And they're just going to put Bryson at 45 to one if Bryson even plays. And, you know, maybe that 22 on DJ or that 26 on Cantlay or that 30 or 35 on Xander. The fact that all those guys fucking tanked at Valero doesn't help.
But I bet Justin Thomas at 14 to one and that may get better. I'm usually pretty good at predicting where this goes. I'm sure maybe somewhere at 16 will pop up and that's fine with me. I talked to, I did a pre-recording thing with Ben Coley on Friday morning. And as soon as he said, he's my guy too, I knew that,
He wasn't going to be a guy that was going to draft. And, you know, my friend, John PGA tout, I did a pre-recording thing with him. He likes Justin Thomas a lot too. He's got, he's not fucking sneaking up on anyone. Right. And I think it's for good reason, right? We've had some, we've had some pretty obvious masters winners come in here that were playing great golf DJ in 2020. And I look at what JT is doing in six stroke play starts this season and
He's made every cut with no finish worse than 33rd. He's gained on approach in every single start and gained over two strokes off the tee in five of six starts. Over his last 10 starts, he's gained strokes in all four major categories. He's starting to putt more consistently. The game is starting to become more well-rounded, and he's still showing us that he's got the elite upside with the irons. So where I sit here on Saturday evening, I'm
I fully believe that Justin Thomas is going to win the Masters. And I have felt this way pretty much since December. I said he was going to win the Masters on my preview pod in December. I felt good about it then. I feel better about it now. I think it's all coming together for him.
I do not care about how popular he is. I do not care who else is betting him. I do not care what the chatter is around him this week. I do not care that Tiger Woods is playing. I do not care if he gets paired with Tiger. I do not care if he gets cursed. I do not care if he's 25% on DraftKings, which he won't be, but he might be like 22. I do not care if other players have better or worse odds. I do not care if other players drift. I do not care what other people are doing. I don't care about any noise.
I'm all in on it. And I'm not budging on this one. It's the strongest I felt about a take in as long as I can remember. I think Justin Thomas is winning the Masters. All right. If Justin Thomas doesn't win the Masters, I mean, so we have DraftKings pricing out already. So, you know, I can talk about who I'm playing. So I...
I have one more. I'm not fucking around with guys this week. I'm not. Like, it's two people. I'm betting two people this week. And Justin Thomas is one of them at 14-1. And the other one is going to be either Dustin Johnson or Patrick Cantlay. Now, I haven't decided yet. I like both of them a lot. I like both of those guys a lot in DraftKings, too. I'm basically playing in DraftKings. I'm playing JT, Rom...
DJ, and Cantlay. I undecided on Xander, but I'm not going to bet Rom, although I do think Rom is going to have an amazing week. And I have a little bit of a theory about this that I'll briefly state. So first of all, the short game in putting, it's getting better. I tracked him closely at the match play and
I thought he outplayed Brooks that day. I thought he looked good. It wasn't his best ball striking performance, but I thought he looked, he was playing good golf and the putter and short game looked better. He made a lot of putts on those first two days, missed the key one to beat Brooks, but I've never been of the belief that his putter short game is broken. The other positive is that
I don't think that Rahm, well, listen, anything under 20 on Rahm is good in my opinion. I think he'll be like 18% this week. And here's a positive with him. He's still the best pure ball striker on the PGA Tour. And I think my best theory to explain why Rahm has maybe been bad with the putter this year, why he's been so bad as kind, he's been really bad with the putter this year,
is maybe that he was somebody who really, really relied on the greens readings books. And when those got banned this year, he struggled. But now he goes to Augusta, a place that he's putted really well at in the past. And now no one has the green reading books. But Rahm, so maybe the playing field's a little bit level. But Rahm knows these greens and he's putted well on these greens before.
And like I said, I think that's almost more indicative than recent putting form. You know, I'd have no interest in betting him unless he was 16 to 1. He's an easy pass for me in the betting market. I could definitely see him winning, but under 14 to 1 on ROM, it's an easy pass for me in the betting market. He's not good enough to be 9 to 1 in this field right now. He's not good enough.
The 14 to one on ramen up. I'm in, um, I bet him at 14 to one the last two weeks. Uh, but I don't, I don't see that. I don't, I don't see him creeping up this week. I don't think he'll be talked about a ton or picked a crazy amount. It's going to be a lot of Brooks. It's going to be a lot of JT, uh,
So I think the ownership will be like 18-ish percent, but I don't think we're going to see a 14-1 or a 16-1 on Rom this week. So a pass in the betting market, but I'm heavy on him in DraftKings. And then Cantlay's the guy that I just think is... If it's not JT, I think Cantlay might win. And there...
He there there's one key trend thing that I think is going to throw people off where he doesn't have that top 30 finish. But man, I mean, you go back just a little bit. And when I say a little bit, we're talking like four starts ago, under three months ago. Like this is not a guy who he's not playing worse than how a deck he was playing entering the Masters.
Here's how Patrick Cantlay started the season. Fourth at Century, ninth at the Amex, fourth at Pebble, playoff loss in Phoenix. And that was coming off back-to-back wins to end the season at the BMW and Tour Championship. He's a great bunker player. I trust his short game. He's plenty long off the tee. His long irons are fine, and he's good at bogey avoidance. He hits the ball high, too. He can control it, but he can hit it high when he needs to.
And he's an excellent putter, excellent on back grass. And he's been excellent. He gained 15 strokes last time he was on back grass. He's won the Memorial twice on back grass. And like I said, I think the Memorial, you have to do a lot of the same things and he's, he's not going to be forgotten. I'm not saying forgotten, but he's going to, he's right next to Brooks. Who's
14% and Xander, I mean, he's going to be 14% and Brooks is going to be higher than that. Brooks is going to be way higher than Cantlay. And Xander is the, Xander's the funny one because Xander is, Xander is not going to sneak up. I looked at some of the early ownership stuff. Xander's over 20, which is shocking to me.
Because he was a community play at the match play. And if you watch the match play, he did not look good. And people think he can't win. But that's the tricky one. I'm not going to play... You guys know how much I love Xander. Cantlay's a better play at that ownership. Cantlay should not... Xander should not be 22%. And Cantlay should not be 13%. Cantlay's a better play at that ownership. And...
I I'm not playing Xander if he's 22% because I'm eating the JT chalk. And I, I think DJ is going to be the type of guy Rory kills this, right? Because now I have a decision to make about Rory and I haven't made that decision, but if Rory just plays fine,
He's 20%. Now he's not. Now Rory's probably going to be lower owned than, than DJ. And I, I love DJ here and I might bet DJ. If I can find a 20 on DJ, I will bet DJ it's, it's between can't lay in and DJ for me. Maybe if Xander's like 32, he enters that conversation, but I'm waiting to see what happens on can't lane DJ. I have my fingers crossed. I,
I think DJ will be moderately owned and moderately talked about. I think he will be between 14 and 18%. Maybe he turns into the guy where people start saying, ah, no one's playing DJ. No one's talking about DJ. He'll be in the DJs in the mix here. And I think DJ is a good play. Now,
I think the guys that people aren't going to play are Scheffler because Scheffler is 11K and he's the most expensive golfer. And if they put Scheffler at even 10.3, it'd be a different conversation. Scheffler at like 7, 8%. I'm not going to fault anyone for doing that. I can't get there. If Scheffler wins the Masters...
This conversation, if Scheffler wins the masters, this conversation changes from, okay, Scheffler is on this crazy hot run to maybe Scheffler is, Scheffler is on pace to be like a historically great golfer. If he wins the fucking masters and wins four out of his last six and a WGC all under the age of 25, that changes everything.
That really changes the conversation with Scheffler. And I don't know if he's that guy. I love Colin Murakawa. I don't think he's long enough. And I don't think his short game's good enough. And I'm firm on that. And I don't think Hovland's short game's good enough. But those guys might go under-owned. I'm playing 0% Cam Smith. 0% Cam Smith. He's going to have to beat me with that magic on a 7,800-yard golf course. And he's going to be popular.
If Cam Smith wasn't popular, I think he's the... I think Cam Smith has a way better chance of winning than Jordan Spieth this week. But Cam Smith... Both of them are going to be super popular and I'm not playing either of them. I'm not going to play Zalatoris either. I just can't. Right? There's too many guys above 9K that I like. I'm playing Rahm and Thomas. And I'm playing Cantlay. And I'm probably playing DJ too. So I'm not playing Zalatoris. And then...
I expect JT to be popular and I expect DG ROM to be popular too. So I, I, I'm not getting much quote unquote leverage up there. So I'm going to get, I'm going to get weird at the bottom, right? I'm going to do some, some different stuff. Fleetwood is one guy that I'm playing for sure. And like I mentioned with Taylor Gooch, right? So I,
Taylor Gooch is ridiculously mispriced, ridiculously mispriced. I don't know if Taylor Gooch would be high owned if he was 7.5K, but Gooch is going to be 2%. I get it. It's a bad misprice. It is a stupid misprice that he's 8.7. But I'll say this about Taylor Gooch. If I was building a golf course for Taylor Gooch, I'd probably build Augusta.
Because what's the one thing that Taylor Gooch struggles with? Off the tee in terms of accuracy, right? He's plenty long, but he sprays it. He's a lot like Justin Thomas, Taylor Gooch is. A worse version of Justin Thomas. Justin Thomas is like a transcendently great iron player. Poor, poor, poor man's Justin Thomas. But you look at the skill set with Gooch...
He's a really good iron player, really good mid to long iron player, but he's also got this awesome fucking short game. He's got an awesome fucking short game and he's the number one lag putter in this field. He's the number five bent grass putter in this field. He's been awesome on bent grass. So, you know, we'll see. I have no take on Tiger. I don't fucking care. I just, I'm, I have to do, uh,
I don't know, four, six, maybe. It's like I counted. I have to do like 13 more hours of content this coming week. And I'm going to have to talk about Tiger a lot. This podcast, I'm not going to talk about him. It's not for me. If you want to play him, that's fine. That's fine. It's not for me. I'm not like...
actively seeking to fade him in matchups. I just, I don't care. It's not for me. I'm rooting for him. I hope he plays great. I don't need money on him to root for Tiger Woods to play well. It's I'm not, it's not for me.
If you want to do it, that's fine. I'm not saying you're stupid. If you play him, I'm not going down that route. It's there's no, there's no way to have a negative take on tiger this these days. It's like what's turned into with LeBron. There's no point in doubting tiger because if you're right and you're super critical of tiger, then you're just an asshole and no one wants to hear that dude. But if you're wrong, then,
then you're going to get fucking dunked on because everyone's like, oh, never doubt Tiger. So it's pointless. I don't care. I don't have a take on him. I'm not playing him. If you want to play him, that's fine. Not going to give away all the guys now, and we're done here. I'm going to have a concerning amount of Thomas Peters this week, and I don't play Thomas Peters ever. He is not one of my guys. I really like Thomas Peters this week. I really like Thomas Peters this week.
I really like Fleetwood. All right, that's it. Okay. So, um, you know, a lot of content this week that I got to do. So I'm going to run through all of it. So this major report thing, I got to be honest on this one. Like I deserve zero credit for this. Joe did absolutely everything, everything. He brought me on like at the 11th hour asking to be his cohost, but he made the entire guest list. He reached out to every single one of those people, uh,
talked to them, sold them on it. He's doing all the producing. He figured out all the stream yard stuff and did the logos and the graphics and everything. This is Joe's baby. He literally just asked me to be his co-host. And I said, sure, absolutely, buddy. I'm happy to do it. And we've already prerecorded some stuff with Bamford and Coley and Steve Hennessey.
Um, and PGA tout John Hasselbauer is really good. So I think you're going to, I think you're going to enjoy it. And listen, if it doesn't work out, that's fine too. Okay. I got people are so, so critical of when people want to try something new. And Joe had this idea and he's thinking outside of the box and props to him. He's doing something more creative than most people who want to criticize him are thinking of. Right. So, um,
I think it's going to be fun. And if you want to watch it, that's great. And if you don't want to watch it, that's totally fine too. Um, what is going to happen though, is because that is a three and a half hour, that's a three hour show. Um, there's no conceivable way for me to do a show with a guest this week, which was going to be Bamford as he, what he just was for the players and will be for, will be for the majors. And, um,
I just, I don't, I don't see a roadmap how I do that also with all the other stuff that I have to do this week. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to release the major report part one and part two. I'm going to release that audio on this podcast feed. So if you don't want to watch it live on YouTube or whatever, you'll get the audio part one on Tuesday morning and part two on Wednesday morning.
So you can just you'll get the audio in here. I'm also doing what is likely going to be a three hour odyssey of a podcast with Boston Capper and Twitterless Steve and Nagels. And that's going to be fucking electric because we have a really good camaraderie between those four guys.
And that is probably going to be like a three hour podcast. And so normally what I, my normal schedule would be Nagel's DFS for the majors, extra show Bamford betting. But because I'm going to do the, this giant DFS show with Nagel's and Twitterless, Steve and Boston capper on their feed, there's no point in me doing an extra show with Nagel's on my feet. So I'm,
Check that podcast out. We're recording it Monday night on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. It's going to be fucking electric. I'm really excited for that. It's the first time the four of us have done it together. I'm really fucking excited for that. Outside of that, I'm going to be back on San Diego local television doing those hits. Those are really fun.
I'm doing more local radio hits for – I'm doing like Kansas City radio on Monday. I'll tweet all this stuff. I'm still doing all the Odds Checker articles. The course preview will be on RickRunggood.com on Monday.
Uh, the final ownership, uh, DFS final thoughts will also be on Rick run good on Wednesday. Um, the scramble Tuesdays and Fridays we're doing that. And then also I'm going on the first cut, the CBS show first cut, which is how I originally discovered Rick. If you don't, uh, if you don't listen to the first cut, check the first cut out. It's awesome.
and I will be doing like a live Q and a on the first cut on Wednesday and then like a live, like watch along on Thursday too. So it's, it's a lot, it's a fucking lot, but it's, I get by job, I'm getting paid. So I, you know, it's fucking the Superbowl, right? It's, it's master's week. So you're going to have ample opportunities to find me wherever you look. Um, I'm,
Probably going to be everywhere this week. So anyway, that's it. You know, an hour 13, and I feel like I gave a pretty comprehensive breakdown. I feel pretty good about this. Hopefully going to be my most listened to show ever. So I would really, really appreciate it if you shared the show around. That'd mean a lot on Twitter. Told a friend, maybe, you know, there are a lot of people that have friends that,
only bet the masters for, you know, only bet the masters, tell them to check it out. Right. Um, that's it. That is it. So one last time, great time to sign up for Rick run good.com coupon code. Andy, you can get the whole week for seven bucks. I will be there in the Slack chat. Any questions you need, uh, premium DFS content, all that stuff, all the tools, um, ownership projections, uh,
Uh, my core full course breakdown with it is even more nerdy than this podcast. It's all there. And then giving away $200 free, literally free money, free money for taking five seconds to write a review on Apple podcast takes literally two seconds and you'll be entered into a draw. Remember, leave your Twitter handle or email address in that review.
That is it. Go Duke tonight. Go JJ Spahn. Happy Masters Week and we'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Drinking and driving is a decision that could change your whole world. Things will never be the same if you ever get a DUI because legal fees and time in court are
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