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Okay, welcome in inside golf podcast. My name is Andy Lack Honda classic betting and DFS preview want to welcome anyone who's new I have been Really humbled by how quickly this podcast has grown in a very short period of time the nature of what I talk about is
at least on the Sunday show, on the surface can be very dull. I'm deep diving a golf course. I'm talking about agronomy. I'm talking about obscure stats. So I really try and do my best to make it not boring despite the subject matter I'm dealing with.
Uh, being somewhat boring. I mean, it's not boring to me, but I think it would be to most people. Um, but I think anyone who listens to this Sunday show is listening because they care about trying to make money in draft Kings and betting. So if I can help in that regard, um,
That makes me really happy. I love when people tell me that the show helped them win sometimes life-changing money. That is really fulfilling to me. And the fact that high-stakes DraftKings players and bettors, spoiler alert, I am not a high-stakes DraftKings player, use and respect my information is meaningful to me because I've said this 100 times. I will say it again. I am not a talent...
I am not a handicapper. I am not interested in selling picks. Yes, I do well for myself in betting and DraftKings, but at the end of the day, I really just like golf courses. Trust me, if I thought that the interest in golf architecture had the legs that I think golf DraftKings and golf betting has, I'd talk about that.
But the purpose of this show has always been for the listeners to use the information I'm providing and make their own decisions. Because while my information is good, I do not always make the best decisions with that information. Our guy, Cody, however, who won 100K last week,
Back in the mix again. He's lurking, just hanging around in the mix for another huge score. And I'm recording this very early on Sunday morning, so I don't know what's going to happen at Riviera.
I have a couple sweats going on. I did not have Joaquin Neiman outright. I played him in DraftKings. I also played Matthew Fitzpatrick in DraftKings, who didn't play in the tournament. I did not wake up in time. The funny part about it is I do have some pretty good Fitzpatrick 5 of 6s because I did play Neiman. I played a lot of Spieth and a lot of Xander. A little too much Rom, though, too. Speaking of that...
My God, that dude was such a fucking nightmare to watch at Riviera. He is such a fucking asshole. I don't know. Maybe it's because, um, my dad had a temper problem and a really short fuse and yelled a lot. Um,
But I continue to not understand how his behavior is endearing in any way, shape or form. How we've turned this into he's fiery, he's passionate. I do not understand it. I spent my whole childhood playing junior golf tournaments and worshiping these guys.
Like, fuck that. Fuck acting like that in front of kids, man. It's such a fucking bummer. And I think you really need to watch up close because as a couple of people have pointed out to me, the TV just drops it. The TV just drops the audio and turns the camera away when he starts losing his shit. So no one sees it unless you're there following him, which I have the past
Two of the past three weeks. The TV guys are pros. They know what they're doing. And he's been doing the same shit his whole career. So they know what to do. But...
Whatever. Listen, I really like John Rahm as a golfer. I think he's really good. I think that one side of him is pretty abhorrent, but I also think there are some really good sides of him too. I really admire the way that he has put his foot in the ground and committed to the PGA Tour.
I hope we don't reach the point where we start handing out medals for players that don't go to Saudi. Like my favorite players, Xander, Scotty Scheffler, they're not fucking going to Scouty, but I don't think they need to be praised for that. However, I will say with Rob, I do think it matters that a guy like him, the number one player in the world, goes out and takes a stand. He is a bigger star than Xander. He just is. And Scotty Scheffler.
by a fair amount. And if one of him or Morikawa or Rory or Spieth or JT left, that would be a huge domino. And thankfully, none of those guys are going to leave. But like I've always said with Rob, I think he's really thoughtful. I love him in interviews. I think he cares about the right things. He really cares about building a legacy and competing and the history of the game. And
I respect the hell out of that. I just think that there's one aspect of his character that is pretty reprehensible. But just like I said with my dad, that's 5% of him that really sucks. The other 95% is incredible and someone I completely look up to and respect more than any other person in the world. Right? So these things can be mutually exclusive. You can be critical of an aspect of someone's character, right?
and still like him and still like the other parts of him. I just don't think that there are a lot of people that put themselves out there and are like, yeah, that's bullshit the way he's acting. Not necessarily even just with Rom, just in general. I think people are very afraid of the pushback, very afraid of the trolls, and I completely get it. But I know there are also a lot of people that
really appreciate and respect my honesty. So I'm always going to call it like I see it for better or worse. And I know people are just going to be like, oh, you hate Rom. And it's like, no, you're really missing the point. I actually really don't hate Rom. I'm just being honest about a part of him that I think is pretty shitty. And I'm sure he's a great guy off the course. I'm sure there are players that are great role models on the course, but shitty people off the course too.
I don't know. I'm only speaking for myself, what I have observed personally and seen. That is it. Speaking of Saudi, I think this shit is absolutely mind boggling. I have a ton of takes. I could talk about this thing for hours. I don't think this podcast is the right forum for it. Trust me, we are going to get into Honda in a second. But later this week, Rick and I are going to record on his podcast feed,
a very extensive deep dive on the Saudi stuff. We're going to try and do our best to explain it. We're going to talk about how this is going to affect
TV rights and sponsorships. There's so much meat on this bone. With that being said, I'm not sure how many golf fans actually give a shit or want to know what's happening. And the reason why I'm going to save it for that podcast is that I know the vast majority of people tuning into this show are here for my Honda stuff. So look out for that podcast with Rick should be out sometimes sometime late next week,
on his podcast feed 300 yards to unknown officially part of the blue wire podcast network. And I'm also going to be back on San Diego local television with my boy, Paul, to talk about Phil.
Because Paul loves Phil. And Phil is a San Diego guy. Actually, I think he's moving to Jupiter for tax reasons. Very predictable. But yeah, I'll do a TV hit on Phil for them. Love talking to my man, Paul. Local San Diego legend. Okay, enough of that. Let's dig into Honda. I think that's everything I wanted to talk about at the time. Honda Classic. First stop on the Florida swing.
This tournament was founded in 1972. It went through a bunch of title changes and course changes, but we've been going to the champions course at PGA national since 2007, which is in Palm beach gardens, Florida. Great area. Uh, we got Joe down there. My beloved Seminole is right down the road. And a lot of PGA tour players live in that Palm beach gardens area. Um,
Jupiter is close, which is also in Palm Beach County. So you'll get the home bed narrative going. I wrote down because I know some people care about this. All of the players in the field I could find that I know live in Palm Beach Gardens. I'm sure I'm missing a few.
Berger, Luke Donald, who actually plays a lot of golf with Michael Jordan, I found out. Ricky, Brooks, Shane Lowry, Danny, Neiman lives in Jupiter, although wouldn't be super shocked if Neiman withdrew if he goes on to win Riviera. Noren lives in Jupiter. He's a Bears club guy. Louie lives in Jupiter. Patrick Rogers, Cameron Tringale, Camille Vajegas, Aaron Wise, Gary Woodland, who's actually in Delray Beach, too.
Um, so I've played some golf down there. My old coach used to be at a club called old Marsh in the winter time, which is, um, one of the clubs down there. Most of these guys, many of them practice out of medalist, uh, the bears club, Isleworth, the Grove, which is Michael Jordan's new course. Um, they all play seminal too, obviously burgers out of dye preserve. I know, but, uh,
A lot of guys practice on this surface on courses like this, and a lot of them will be sleeping in their own bed this week. How much stock you want to put into that, totally up to you, but I thought it was worth mentioning. Okay, four more winners of this event.
Last year, Matt Jones won at 12 under par. He was 70 to one over Brandon Hagee by five strokes. 2020 Sungjae M six under par over Mackenzie Hughes. 2019 Keith Mitchell nine under par over Ricky Fowler and Brooks Koepka. 2018 Justin Thomas 12 to one over Luke List in a playoff.
2017 Ricky Fowler was 16 to one over Morgan Hoffman. Who's living down in Costa Rica now. Uh, and my guy, Gary Woodland, um,
They both shot eight under. So 2016, Adam Scott over Sergio 2015, Patrick Harrington over Daniel Berger in a playoff 2014, Russell Henley over Russell Knox and Rory McIlroy and Ryan Palmer all finished second that year, 2013, Michael Thompson over Jeff Ogilvie, 2012, Rory McIlroy over Tom Gillis and Tiger Woods. This is the last 10 years. So the biggest thing that stood out to me is,
Four of the last 10 winners have been below 20 to one. So the favorites for the last 10 years, the favorites basically have won. And four of the last 10 years, the winners have been above 300 to one. So eight of the last 10 years, the winner has either been a favorite or a complete long shot.
The only two guys that didn't fit this criteria were oddly enough, the last two years, Matt Jones was like 70 to one and see who Kim or sorry, Sungjae M was 35 to one. So we've had a couple of situations where essentially the favorite Justin Thomas, Ricky Fowler, Adam Scott, Roy McIlroy have gone on to win. And then we've also had some absolute shockers. What does that mean?
Honestly, nothing, in my opinion. I think anyone can win this tournament. That's not necessarily because it's a putting contest. In fact, this tournament plays more like a US Open than pretty much any other course on the schedule, which...
you would say normally, okay, because this course is so difficult, it's always going to weed out the best players. And that's often the case. I mean, just looking at the leaderboards, the best players in this field do tend to play well here. The issue is this tournament doesn't always get great feels. So on years when...
Rory and JT and Tiger aren't playing and the favorites are like Sungjae and Berger no shots to either of them but those guys aren't on the same class as Rory and Tiger and JT where they are more likely to blow out a bad field without their a game and you have a situation where you
You know, anyone can really win if they keep it out of the water and putt because it's not a field with a ton of great players that are going to blow the field away. And the years that we do have great players, those guys usually win. So even though this course should weed out the best players, this isn't really a tournament historically with players.
elite players, which of course opens the door for guys at longer odds. And even the guys that have won here at longer odds, it's often guys that are pretty good players. Maybe not yet at the time, but have turned into pretty good players. Like it's just kind of before they've had a really big breakout. Like Russell Henley won here at 30 at 300 to one in 2014. Right.
Russell Henley is a good player. I can guarantee you that was the last time Russell Henry will ever be 300 to one ever again. He would be 30 to one in this field this week, maybe even shorter. Another example, Patrick Harrington went out 400 to one. Yes, he was in bad form, but he's also like the 43rd best golfer of all time.
Um, and even Keith Mitchell who won at 300 to one, like Keith Mitchell's pretty good. He's like a 70 to one golfer most weeks now, unless it's a really good field. So moral of the story, I think you can structure this however you want. If you want to go super top heavy and bet one or two guys in the twenties and thirties, I think that's a reasonable strategy. Um, if you want to go bombs away and bet a bunch of guys above a hundred to one, I think there's an argument for that strategy as well.
I haven't really decided what I'm going to do yet. Um, we shall see. Um, and we'll get into it a little bit later when we talk about some of the players, but let's talk about the golf course first. So PGA national was designed in 1981 by George and Tom Fazio with Nicholas redesigns in 1990 and 2013, all my least favorite designers collaborating together on one project Riviera. It was fun while it lasted. Um,
So PGA National is a par 70 measuring 7,125 yards. So it's not very long. Water comes into play on 15 holes. However, there is water everywhere.
Bermuda fairways, two inch Bermuda rough, 7,000 foot square foot on average, Tiff Eagle, Bermuda greens that run a pretty quick 11.5 on the stamp. And nearly every single year, this course ranks as one of the hardest courses on tour. Every single year it plays over par, sometimes two strokes over par. So expect some carnage. It's a very typical Florida course where it's extremely flat,
Not very interesting architecture, which isn't really always the fault of the architect. There just isn't really a lot of interesting topography or elevation changes in that part of the country. Ton of water hazards, though. Sticky Bermuda rough and really difficult bunkers. It's often very windy at this course, too. Holes 15 through 17 are nicknamed the bear trap, right?
which is one of the hardest stretches you will find on the PGA tour. There's over a 15% bogey rate on all three of those holes. And they aren't even the hardest holes on the course. Like number six is almost like a par four and a half. It has a stroke average of 4.35.
30% of players make bogey there. 7% make double. So that's just a brutal hole. Hole number 10 has a 28% bogey rate and 14 also has a 22% bogey rate. So,
There's some really hard golf holes on this course and all of the par threes here are extremely hard. All of them play well over par. The two on the front nine are both over 210 yards. The two on the back nine, which are part of the bear trap 15 and 17 are a lot shorter. They're only 175 ish yards, but both of those holes play even harder than the front nine longer par fives, despite being 40 yards shorter because they're,
They are all over water and I guess more exposed to the winds. But this course often plays as the toughest major non-major par 70 on the PGA Tour. We we have not had a winning score here.
better than minus 12 in the last 10 years. This course is hard in calm conditions. So when the wind is blowing, which it usually does, it genuinely has the possibility to be more of a difficult test than some of the major venues. At least it has been historically. It's probably going to play a lot harder than how Riviera played last week. So Jack Nicklaus, like I've mentioned, not my favorite architect. He has also designed...
PGA West, where they play part of the American Express. He designed Muirfield Village, by far his best course by an absolute mile. Glen Abbey, which used to host the Canadian Open. Montreux, which used to host the Barracuda Championship. I don't think any of these courses are very good comps for PGA National.
At all. Not Muirfield Village. At all. This is just a flat, windy, really difficult Florida course. So you're probably better suited looking at
I don't know, Bay Hill. The one thing I will say about Jack Nicklaus is he's a very lazy designer. So he thinks that putting water everywhere makes holes more interesting. And he tends to design golf courses that consistently favor a fade. Now, a lot of guys...
that have played well here do primarily play a fade. Justin Thomas, Brooks, Sung Jae. There are also a lot of guys who hit a draw who have been good here. Rory, for example. Ryan Palmer is a huge drawer of the golf ball. So...
I don't really think anything Jack Nicholas related matters a ton here. Uh, but I do think maybe you want to look at players that hit the ball lower, right? Players that can control their trajectory and are good in the wind. I'll talk a little bit about that later. Cause I've, I have some thoughts on that. Um,
Nicholas did do a renovation in 2019. He did change a fair amount. So keep that in mind when looking at, you know, course history before 2019, he made the green complexes a lot bigger. He reseeded them with a better strain of grass, which made the greens more true, but also firmer and, um, faster and, uh,
What I thought was funny was 99% of the time in renovations, they will make the course longer to keep up with modern technology. Nicholas actually made it slightly shorter because he knew how hard it already was and it didn't need to be made any harder.
which I thought was funny. And like many Florida courses, there are a lot of bunkers. I will absolutely be looking at sand saves this week. And there are 26 individual water hazards. Water comes into play on 15 different holes, often on both the tee shot and the approach shot. Course experience certainly can matter here, but we've also seen players like
Daniel Berger, Tommy Fleetwood, and Alex Noren across the last couple of years contend in their first visit. So if you haven't played this course, I would not call it a deal breaker. Let's look at some of the quotes. So Sung Jae talks about the bunkers a lot. He went out of his way to mention the bunkers as something that was really key to his success. So keep that in mind. Look at bunker play this week. Keith Mitchell talks about how you have to stay patient.
which makes sense on a harder golf course, right? Two weeks ago in Phoenix, I talked about how I wanted really aggressive players like Scotty Scheffler, who hits a ton of drivers and goes for the green a lot on par fives.
I don't know if that's what I'm looking for this week. I think you kind of got to pick your spots here a little bit more. I think about guys like Luke Donald and Adam Scott and Patrick Harrington that have all been good here. Tiger, obviously, too, is actually one of the most conservative players you'll ever find if you actually watch how he plays and hear him talk about golf.
So there might be something to that. Keith Mitchell also talked about the trickiness of the grain here. And this course does have a ton of putts missed inside 10 feet, as I mentioned. So one thing to maybe look out for here is guys that play a lot of golf in this area in Florida that live in Florida. What do I'll give you a couple of guys that have played really well here. What do Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Ricky Fowler have in common?
The answer to that question is hashtag jupe life, right? So maybe those guys have a bit of a leg up on this type of Bermuda, just a theory. And Justin Thomas talked about how you have to keep the ball in play off the tee and you're cooked. If you're driving it bad, you're going to rack up a million penalty strokes. Just looking through some of the visuals of the course, um,
It looks like there's a fair amount of visually intimidating tee shots, like pretty tight landing areas that are guarded by bunkers and water on both sides. He also said, JT also said that these greens aren't very Bermuda-like. So maybe that throws a wrench in my previous theory. I have no idea how to interpret that. And I say that as someone that spends way too much time
digesting agronomy. My guess is that he's saying there's less grain because Bermuda is a grainy surface and maybe, and maybe they roll a little bit more true, uh, post renovation. I don't know. I think you should still just like a Bermuda putting JT on all matters. Putting right now can't be trusted, um, cannot be trusted. And Russell Henley, last one.
I think it might have something to do with getting back to the Bermuda grass. I feel like whenever I play Riviera, I'm uncomfortable. Those West Coast tournaments are brutal. I feel like those greens are really hard to put on. When I come over here to some Bermuda grass, I get a little more comfortable. So for all the people that say that grass type doesn't matter, just listen to what the players fucking say because it's so abundantly obvious that it does fucking matter.
Okay, let's go through the stack categories. Off the tee, top 10 finishers have gained 0.45 strokes off the tee per round. That's about 45% of what they gain on approach and putting, which is kind of middling, I would say. Driving accuracy here is slightly below tour average. Driving distance here is
is also well below tour average, 273 compared to 283, which tells me that players aren't always hitting driver on this course. I think that makes sense because there's a lot of trouble off the tee and the course itself is not extremely long. Last year, 11 of the top 12 on the leaderboard did gain off the tee. There was a little bit less of a correlation in off the tee the year before.
I don't think you need to be dominant off the tee here. I just think that you need to be good at keeping the ball in play. And if you are wild off the tee, that's an absolute disaster. The fairways are pretty narrow here, 29 yards wide on average at the 250 mark, and they get even narrower from 300 yards.
300 to 350. So again, that explains why maybe a couple less players are taking driver because that and the length of the course and how much water that comes into play on every hole. Um, I don't really view this as a course where players are going to be hitting a ton of drivers. I think like I look at the top 12 in fairways gains and in good drives gains and, um,
All of them gained, right? So you have to be accurate. But the year prior, there wasn't really a huge correlation in fairways gained or good drives gained. That year was all irons and putting, which I think is probably what you really want to be looking at. The year before, Keith Mitchell won all.
losing in fairways gained and Fowler finished second, losing as well. So I am looking a bit off the tee. I don't think you need to be deadly accurate or dominant off the tee. I just think you need to stay out of the trouble. For whatever reason, I have noticed that
Bombers do play well here. Matt Jones last year, plenty long off the tee. Brandon Hayes, who finished second, super long off the tee. Keith Mitchell hits it a long way. Justin Thomas ranked first in driving distance the week that he won. Um,
Ricky Fowler back in the day before everyone really started chasing distance had above average distance. He ranked 12th in distance a year that he won. Same with Adam Scott. Same with Rory, obviously. I don't necessarily think this is because you can bomb away with driver here. I think it's more because there's...
This course has so many hazards. There's a ton of hazards off the tee that longer hitters can hit four or five irons off the tee and really make sure they aren't in a hazard and still have reasonable approaches coming in. Whereas shorter hazards, shorter hitters, if you're clubbing down, you are going to still have some long and tough approaches. There are
Still some pretty long par fours here and some shorter ones that are going to play into the wind. I will say that this course definitely does play longer than its yardage. Courses with a ton of water and hazards always play longer than its yardage because courses like that, courses that dictate where you can and can't hit it, tend to play longer. And PGA National has that in spades. But what was interesting to me
is that you don't have to be super deadly accurate, right? Keith Mitchell, 54th in driving accuracy the year he won, but he was second in scrambling. JT, 60th in driving accuracy the year that he won, first in scrambling. Patrick Harrington, 52nd in driving accuracy, but sixth in scrambling. Rory McIlroy, 32nd
36 and driving accuracy first and scrambling. So as you can see, you don't have to be super accurate here and you don't have to be super long here either. There are still plenty examples of shorter hitters competing here. You really just have to keep the ball in play off the tee. I can't emphasize this enough. Um,
This course is really about being able to scramble and get up and down and save par because you're going to hit it in the water. Sometimes you're going to miss greens. Like I mentioned, I did notice that longer players have had a fair amount of success here, but I don't really know if there's enough evidence of that for me to really like way want to weigh driving distance. Just
because it's not even a course where you need to hit driver all the time at all, or a course where you can bomb away aimlessly. But I did think it was interesting to note. All that is to say that I have an average weight on off the tee. But I also did look at good drives gained because you need to be able to keep the ball in play. That is what is hugely important. So that is a stat that can help me identify players that are able to position themselves to hit greens in regulation.
Okay. Irons, um, top 10 finishers have gained 1.03 on approach per round. Uh, that's right around average. It's a lot. Um, there was a positive correlation in greens and regulation gains greens in regulation percentage here is 59% compared to the tour average of 66%. So, um,
Well below tour average, 17% of approach shots come from 125 to 150, which is right around tour average. 23% of approach shots come from between 150 to 175, which is above the tour average of 20%. 26% of approach shots come from 175 to 200, which is well above the tour average of 26%.
And nine of the top 12 last year gained on approach in 2020. It was far more of an approach. We 14 of the top 16 finishers gained over three strokes on approach. So PGA national, uh,
kind of similar to what we saw in Phoenix a couple of weeks ago is a mid iron course, right? It's not a wedge course like pebble and it's not a long iron course like Torrey. Um, two thirds of all approach shots are going to be between 125 and 200 yards. Again, I know that sounds like a big range, but it's really just about identifying the players who are best with like a nine to six iron because
because you are going to have a lot of those shots. I'm a little bit lower on iron play this week than my average, not because there was less of a correlation between iron play and success necessarily, just more so because I wanted to be so heavy on stuff like difficult scoring conditions and scrambling and bogey avoidance and stuff like that. All right, around the green. Top 10 finishers have gained significantly
0.32 around the green per round. That's a little bit more than you usually see for around the green play. I definitely found a positive correlation with sand saves. That's going to be hugely important this week. And scrambling percentage here is well below tour average, 54% compared to 57%.
21 of the top 24 gained around the greens, uh, last year, which you rarely ever see the year before in 2020 Sungjae one and gained 3.6 around the green Hughes finished second and gained 6.4 around the green. Um, so I do think short game matters here. I think anytime you have a low greens and regulation percentage, you should probably be looking a little bit at short game. Even good iron players are going to miss here because of the winds. Uh,
Now, sometimes if you miss a green, you're just going to be in the water. But I still found a huge correlation between sand saves and obviously between scrambling here as well. The entire top of the leaderboards...
It's just a ton of scrambling. I already read off the ranks to you earlier. I just really want guys that can save par guys that if they hit their tee shot in the water, they can make bogey instead of double bogey. So I have a pretty heavy weight this week on a little bit on stroke, skate around the green, but much more on scrambling bogey avoidance sand saves. I'm looking at all that stuff this week, by the way,
Top 10 guys in scrambling over a large sample size. Bazadenhout, who I'm sure you'll hear a lot about this week. Patrick Reed, Kevin Strillman, Stephan Jaeger, Keith Mitchell, Kevin Tway, Louie, Mackenzie Hughes, Robert Streb, Brian Harmon. Those are the best scramblers over a large sample size. Okay, putting. Tops and finishers have gained 0.88%.
putting per round. That's right around where it normally is. All 12 of last year's top 12 finishers gained over a stroke and a half putting. And you don't always see that either. So I do think this is a bit of a more variable event. It's
Not a putting contest, though. It's a hard golf course. T to green really matters. So I have a little bit of a smaller weight on putting than I usually do, which is often the case at harder golf courses. But I'm also looking at short putting over a large sample size putting inside 10 feet.
Okay. I've noticed that that has been a little bit of a struggle here. I don't necessarily think that's because these greens are super, super tricky necessarily. Uh, they're definitely more true than POA. My hypothesis is that, uh, that just, the fact has more to do with the wind, uh, because putting in the wind is really hard. And so I just really want to try and identify guys that are automatic, uh,
um, over a five footer for par in the wind. So here are the best short putters in this field over a two year sample size. Alex Noren that checks out McKenzie Hughes that checks out. Billy Horschel checks out Zach Johnson. Yup. Tommy Fleetwood. Um, he's actually a really underrated putter and he's been good here. Denny McCarthy, of course, Chris Kirk, Matthew Wolf, interesting. Bo Hoss or Mito Pereira. Um,
Those guys have shown over a pretty large sample size to be really automatic. Um, and tour pros miss those putts so much more than you would think the amount of people that think that their golfer is an absolute loser for missing an eight foot putt. Um, when that's about a 50, 50 proposition at best, um,
Does not make sense to me. Mark Brody, who invented Strokes Gain, actually has a great article on putting inside 10 feet. It's somewhere. It might be Golf Digest, might be golf.com, somewhere like that. Just Google Mark Brody putting inside 10 feet. There's some really good stuff in there. Okay, what other ancillary stuff do I think you want to look at?
Let's talk about the scoring stats. So I'm not looking at guys that can make it center birdies this week. I'd rather look at bogey avoidance. I actually found a stronger correlation amongst top 10 finishers in bogey avoidance than birdies gains. Same with the year before every single player in the top 20 gained in bogey avoidance, right? This is a grinder's course and you need to survive. And again,
I'm not really looking at any comp courses, although I really understand if you want to look at Bay Hill. I really understand looking at the Valspar, I guess, too. Those are both difficult Bermuda courses that play firm and fast and have some wind, especially the API. I just personally wanted to go really heavy on stuff like scrambling and bogey avoidance that...
I just didn't have enough room to weigh course history at Bay Hill. And I have a pretty heavy weight on strokes gained in difficult scoring conditions, which I think basically...
covers a lot of the comp course angle for me, because that will help me identify all the guys who really tend to thrive on harder courses. There is a bit of a U S open connection here that my guy, Steve Bamford pointed out, obviously Fowler, Patrick Harrington and Rory have been great at us opens, but even guys like Michael Thompson and Mackenzie Hughes, um,
Sneaky good US Open guys. So I do think being able to identify players that have been the best over a large sample size in harder scoring conditions is really going to help. Just to list the top 10 players in this field in difficult scoring conditions so you can get a sense of these players too. Patrick Reed, Louis Oosthuizen, Cameron Strangale, Daniel Berger, Russell Knox, Chad Ramey, Kevin Strillman, Aaron Wise, Joaquin Neiman, Shane Lowry, Brooks Koepka.
checks out, right? I think for the most part, those are all players I do tend to think of in more difficult scoring conditions for the most part. Um, I have a 4% weight on moderate to windy conditions. Uh,
When does matter here? It will be windy. However, I think when stats are very wonky just because there are a lot of variables at play. So I would not live and die by these by any means. And if you are going to look at when stats, look at them over a two year sample size because short term when stats are
There's just a lot of randomness involved there. Over a large sample size, though, you can maybe find some trends or some big picture stuff to look at. I still don't totally trust wind stats, which is why I have such a small weight on it. But here are the 10 best guys in this field in moderate to windy conditions over the last couple of years.
Berger, Sungjae, Tringale, Reed, Neiman, Vegas, Wolf, Kirk, Matt Jones, Brian Harmon, Tommy Fleetwood. That kind of checks out to me, honestly. Like I do think of Neiman and Matt Jones and Chris Kirk and Fleetwood as good wind players. They've played well on a lot of coastal courses before. I mean, Fleetwood almost won at Shinnecock. Yeah.
So maybe I do need to give a little more credit to win stats. Maybe they aren't so bad at all. I'm still going to proceed with caution and not really make any major decisions based on my perceived understanding of players in the win, though. One thing that you are also going to hear a lot of this week, sorry, excuse me, scarfing down water over here. Oh, this guy has a low ball flight, so he should be good in the wins.
I guarantee you, you are going to hear that with Neiman. And I just want to throw this out there. I would say about 99.99999% of PGA Tour players have a relatively easy time controlling their trajectory. So a player like Rory, who has an absolutely towering ball flight, you don't fucking think he knows how to hit a knockdown shot growing up in Ireland? Come on. All these guys stand on the tee box and understand how to play in the wind.
They know that their ball is going to balloon in the wind, and most of them can adapt. Now, some are better than others. I look at someone like Shane Lowry. I think he probably has an easier time doing that than, I don't know, Brendan Todd, who hits kind of a wipey fade. But if somebody says, oh, this guy has a low ball flight, he's really good in the winds, it's anecdotal, right? It's sometimes maybe something you noticed and picked up while watching golf, but there are a lot of players that...
really like hitting the ball high, but when they need to hit the ball low, they have no problem hitting the ball low. And, um, you know, a bunch of these guys that hit the ball high that you see on coverage, guess what? They're hitting it high for a reason because most golf courses on the PGA tour are set up for target golf and a high ball flight. Um,
A few guys that do come to mind that just naturally hit the ball pretty low based again on just all the hours I've spent watching golf. I'm sure I'm leaving guys off here that are perfectly capable of a low ball flight, but Chris Kirk hits a low draw. He actually can work it both ways nicely. Brian Harmon hits the ball pretty well. I mentioned Shane Lowry, Gary Woodland, just some really provocative stuff from a trajectory standpoint, but again,
A guy like Brooks, who every time you watch on TV, you'll notice, man, like Brooks hits this towering high fade that kind of drops out of the sky. But is Brooks capable of keeping it under the wind if he needs to? Like, yeah, of course. He won at fucking Shinnecock. He's fine. Okay.
Okay, so that's my rant on win stuff. Bogey avoidance, difficult scoring conditions, little bit of wins, and then a little bit of course history. I'm lower on course history than I usually am. Not by much. I just found more examples here than at, say, Riviera of players finding success on their first appearance and success.
With how many PGA Tour players reside in Florida these days, chances are that even if they haven't played this tournament before, they are playing clubs every day like Jupiter Hills or the Bears Club or Isleworth that have similar greens and water everywhere. Like I'm not worried about Mito coming over and being like, wow, golf in Florida is such a mindfuck.
Like anyone can show up here and be fine. It's a Jack Nicklaus course. We're not talking about Alistair McKenzie greens. Okay. Let's get into the model. Let's get into the model. Okay. Off the tee weighted combination of strokes, get off the tee. Good drives gain 13% approach, 28% weighted combination of strokes, gain approach and proximity one 25 to 200 around the green 16%.
Weighted combination of strokes gained around the green, sand saves, and scrambling, which you could put scrambling in another category too. Putting, 17%. Weighted combination of strokes gained putting on Bermuda and putting inside 10 feet. And then scoring stats, 20%. This is a weighted combination of bogey avoidance, difficult scoring conditions, and a little bit of wind play. And then 6% for course history.
So here were the top 20. A couple surprises, but, you know, Daniel Berger, number one. That makes a lot of sense. Louis Eustace in number two. Christian Bezadenhout, who I think is going to be really popular this week, number three. Sung Jae Im, number four, as you would expect. Joaquin Neiman, number five. Denny McCarthy, number six. Chris Kirk, number seven. Shane Lowry, number eight. Mito Pereira, number nine.
Ian Poulter, 10. And then you have Tringale, Knox, Hughes, Billy Horschel, Mark Hubbard, Jonathan Vegas, Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harmon, Patrick Reed, Brendan Todd.
So, you know, I think the best players in this field, the best player in this field right now, I mean, it's really by world ranking points, it's really Louie, but Berger and Louie and Sungjae and Neiman, especially if he wins today, are kind of in this top tier. And then it's going to be interesting to see where they price guys like Lowry and Fleetwood, who I both really like. And Billy Horschel, I'm sure, will be very popular because he's playing really well right now as well.
Um, let's get into early leads. Okay. There's four guys that I want to talk about pretty quickly. I'm going to give you the guy that I think is going to win this tournament first. Let's talk about Louie. You say, cause I think Louie says it's going to win this week. Um,
I think he's going to break his spell of never winning on U.S. soil. So in four appearances here, Louie's two missed cuts, 24th and a 21st. He rates out immaculately here. I think this course is perfect for Louie's season. He's solid off the tee. He's got a wheat accuracy too. I'm not worried about him hitting in a bunch of hazards. He's one of the best iron players in this field, although he is not particularly deadly with those short irons. He's actually...
kind of a better long iron player than he is a short iron player, but elite short game, one of the best bunker players in this field and one of the best scramblers in this entire field as well. He's also one of the best Bermuda putters in this field and I trust him over five footers in the winds. He is the number two player in this entire field in bogey avoidance as well. He's also at the top of this field in difficult scoring conditions and he's
We know his track record on difficult courses and at majors. It's all pretty good. He's good in the wind as well. So to me, this is a perfect course for Louie. He's coming off a 14th in Phoenix where he gained 2.1 off the tee and 1.4 on approach. He actually gained over a stroke in all four major categories. That's exactly what I like to see. And this was Louie's first start since withdrawing from the RSM Classic and
It honestly didn't look like he missed a beat. Like I said, he gained over a stroke in all four categories in a really good field. And now he goes to a field where I believe he is the best player in this field, depending on how you feel about Daniel Berger. I think you can make an argument for both, but it's a really difficult golf course that he does have some experience at. I don't know. I don't know what Louie's odds are going to be. I could tell you one thing. I'm not going to bet Louie at 14-1 in this field, but...
But if Louie is like 20, I bet Louie at 20 to one in this field, I favorites win on this course. It's really hard. And Louie is good in hard conditions. I think Louie,
I think he's going to win the Honda Classic. I really do. It's just a gut feeling. I really feel that way. He's really high up in the model, right? Like, it's really just Berger that's kind of in that stratosphere. Bazaydenhout, I guess, and Sungjae are there too. But I don't know. I look at the other guys at the top that Louis has to beat. I don't know. Billy Horschel. Like, it just... They didn't scare me as much. So I think this is...
I think this is a good spot for Louie. I think it might be Louie's time. So first guy I want to talk about that I really like, Louie Uceza. Number might be too low for me, but if Louie's in the 20s, I'd bet Louie. Next guy I want to talk about that I absolutely love this week is Brian Harmon. I love Brian Harmon this week. I think Brian Harmon is a great play. Harmon has made...
six cuts and nine appearances here, two top 15s. Um, so he hasn't really been that great here, um, which I hope deflates his price a little bit, but Harmon actually rates out really well here. Um, he's not great off the tee, but he's really accurate. He does what I'm looking for where he just, he keeps it in play. Um,
He's nothing special with those mid-irons, but he's got an excellent short game. He's an elite scrambler, one of the best Bermuda putters in this field, and one of the best short putters in this field as well. Surprisingly, also one of the best players in this field in difficult scoring conditions and in windy conditions. So I really like the way that Hartman sets up for this course. And he's coming off a 14th in Phoenix where he gained 2.5 off the tee and 3.2 on approach and actually lost
half a stroke putting. So Harmon coming into Phoenix, he had essentially been like a pretty terrible ball striker for the last six months. But like basically since the U S open, he's been really bad. But since the Amex where he gained 4.6 on approach, he's,
he's really starting to show some signs of life. The 5.7 that he gained ball striking Phoenix, that was his best ball striking performance in about 18 months since August of 2020. He actually hit it better last week in Phoenix than he did when he went on that nice run last year, kind of at this time of year, actually. Third at the Players, 12th at the Masters, 13th Heritage, 18th Wells Fargo, 8th Charles Schwab, 19th US Open, 5th Travelers.
The only difference is that he was putting that and he has putted well recently. He is starting to putt well again. He gained 4.7 at Sony, 2.8 at the MX and 4.
He's a really good putter and he's really good specifically on Bermuda. So I trust that the pumper putter can continue to improve. Um, and when Brian Harmon is hitting the ball this way, um, I'm going to play Brian Harmon. So I love Brian Harmon this week. He's most likely a bet for me. Two more guys I want to talk about real quickly. I think Keith Mitchell could win this tournament again. Um, in four appearances here, Mitchell's gone miscut when miscut 53rd. Um,
And the year that he won here, he gained 12 strokes from T to green. So it definitely wasn't a fluke when, uh, he rates out well here, obviously great driver of the ball long and straight. And that can definitely help on this course, even if it's not a course where you need to hit a ton of drivers, uh,
Irons are definitely a weakness for him. He's not a very good iron player and specifically not good from 125 to 175, but he does have a really good short game and he's a lead out of the bunkers and an elite scrambler. Same with bogey avoidance too. He rates out incredibly high in all those categories. So it does make some sense that he's been good recently.
on harder courses, right? Despite a so-so ranking in that category. I definitely believe the fact that he's long and accurate and has a really good short game is
part of the reason this is such a good fit for him. And he's had a ton of success on Bermuda. Um, so I like Keith Mitchell a lot. He's coming. He's just, he's playing really good golf right now. Um, and I, I think Keith Mitchell's good. Like I look at what he's doing. 12th at the RSM 4.6 ball striking seventh at the Sony 3.6 ball striking miscut at the farmers 12th at pebble beach 4.7 ball striking 10th at Phoenix 6.9 ball striking. Um,
So he gained 4.9 off the tee and two on approach in Phoenix. Um, and he was cursed that week. So it's even more impressive. So the ball striking just keeps getting better. Um, often see has become such a weapon for him. He's now gained off the tee and 13 starts. The irons are far to finally starting to come around. He's gave it over two strokes on approach and back to back starts. Um, all he needs to do is putt and he's not even putting poorly right now. He's just putting to field average. Um,
But Keith Mitchell is a really good putter, or I should say a volatile putter. In his last 13 starts, he's had five times where he's gained over 3.5 putting. Every other time, he's lost strokes putting. And that is exactly what you want.
when you're trying to pick winners, right? That is the exact type of volatility that you want to be looking for a player where when he putts well, he really puts well. Um, so I think Mitchell can win this tournament again. Um, I actually think he's a guy that's going to win a couple of times on the PGA tour. I think he's a really good player, um, just because of how good he is off the tee and how good his short game is. So unless a number is super inflated, um, which it might be, he's won here before and he's playing well. Um,
There's a decent chance in this field that they put Keith Mitchell in the low 30s with how he's been playing. So I really have to see where the buzz is when odds come out. But I really like Keith Mitchell. If I can fit Louie, Keith Mitchell, and Brian Harmon, and this last guy that I'm going to talk about, I'll be very happy riding with that four-man team. Last guy I want to talk about, Chris Kirk.
I like Chris Kirk here in 10 appearances here. He's made six cuts with two top 25. So not great here, but he just checked a lot of boxes for me. He's been good off the tee. The irons are fine. He's very solid from 125 to 175. Decent short game and okay out of the bunkers. Not going to hurt you in anything. Just very well-rounded.
which I think matters on this course. Good putter on Bermuda, and he's one of the best short putters in this entire field. Really good in bogey avoidance, and he actually rates out okay in difficult scoring conditions and in the wins. I haven't played Chris Kirk in a while. I did play him a ton this time of year last year, and I think it's time to go back. Between January and April of last year,
So this time last year, Chris Kirk played nine times. He made eight cuts with seven top 25s, four top 10s. Uh, and the courses on that schedule, Sony, Phoenix, Honda, API heritage. Like this is where Chris Kirk makes all of his money. Uh,
And he finally starts to get it going again in Phoenix 14th at the waste management game strokes in all four major categories, which is what Chris Kirk should be doing. Right. If he wants to win 2.9 off the tee 1.8 approach like that's what you want from Chris Kirk. Like Chris Kirk can win a tournament gaining 3%.
three balls, three approach, three off the tee and like four putting like that's the formula for Chris and like two or three around the green, right? That's the formula for Chris Kirk. So,
I do wish his course history was a little bit better, but it's not terrible. And maybe they will keep him a little bit more under the radar. Although people really like Chris Kirk and it's really easy to make a case for him this week. But outside of his 14th at Phoenix, he hasn't really been that good since this time last year. So I do think the price will be okay. Louie is kind of my first priority, but if Chris Kirk is...
I don't know. I hope Chris Kirk is somewhere in like the sixties or seventies. Um, I definitely would bet him. So the four guys that I really have my attention on right now, Louie, Keith Mitchell, Brian Harmon, and Chris Kirk. Now I want to wrap up there. I'll mention a couple other guys that I like in draft Kings. Um,
I'm definitely going to play. I mean, Louie at the top, the other guys I'm going to play, I'm definitely going to play Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood at the top. Probably not going to play Billy Horschel. Haven't decided on Sungjae. Haven't decided on Berger either. Um, but I'm definitely playing Louie, Shane Lowry and Fleetwood. I can tell you that much.
Uh, in that midter tier, we talked about Keith Mitchell. We talked about Brian Harmon. We talked about Chris Kirk, other guys, um, the Zaden how it might be trouble this week. I could see busy and how being like, I don't know, 8.3 and 20% owned. Um, so I like busy and how to, we'll have to see. Um,
I kind of like Ian Poulter just as much to be completely honest with you. And I like Mackenzie Hughes too. And then some of the lower guys that I was looking at always Mark Hubbard, always Mark Hubbard. Uh, when Mark Hubbard plays, I play Mark Hubbard. He was very kind to me at Pebble beach. Um, I like Kramer Hickok a lot. Kramer Hickok's playing some pretty good golf, Denny McCarthy for sure. Um,
like Denny McCarthy a lot this week. And then Luke Donald, um, who's hitting his irons really well and has played well at this course before. I think Luke Donald can play well here too. Um,
Still got to look at some of the guys from Riviera on Sunday. But that's it for now. So the main guys I'm focused on that are probably going to be bets, Louis, unless his odds are super low, Brian Harmon, Keith Mitchell, Chris Kirk, top 40 on Mark Hubbard. And there's still a couple of guys that are playing at Riviera that I want to dig into, but that will do it for me this week. Okay.
This show, which will come out Tuesday, Inside Golf Podcast on this podcast feed with Twitter list Steve Honda Classic and Scramble 12 p.m. Eastern Tuesdays and Fridays. Love doing that show with Rick. Really pleased at the reception that one's gotten so far. And again, look out for that longer form podcast.
Saudi deep dive with Rick later in the week on his podcast feed. If you're, if you're interested in that type of stuff and, uh,
MITB hit on San Diego local television with my boy Paul to talking about Phil and then odd checker articles and Tuesdays and Saturdays. And I think that's it. So I hope everyone has a fantastic Sunday. Congratulations. If you have walking Neiman or I guess Cameron Young and have a great rest of your day and we'll catch you next time. Cheers.
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