In Moscow's Shadows 175: 'In a dangerous world, strike first' - Russian strategic culture

2024/11/17

In Moscow's Shadows

Mark Gagliotti

本播客探讨了俄罗斯独特的战略文化，其根源可以追溯到中世纪，并持续至今。这种战略文化并非一成不变，但它深刻地影响了俄罗斯历代统治者的决策，包括普京。该文化基于三个核心假设：专制集权、侵略性防御和非对称性假设。专制集权是为了应对俄罗斯长期面临的贫困和外部威胁，通过最大化税收和压制反抗来维持稳定。侵略性防御源于俄罗斯缺乏天然边界，以及对其领土安全的担忧，导致其倾向于扩张领土和先发制人。非对称性假设则反映了俄罗斯在面对更强大的对手时，会采取模仿、学习和改变战斗方式等策略。普京的统治充分体现了这种战略文化，他的对内专制和对外侵略都与之密切相关。乌克兰战争是这种战略文化在现代的体现，普京的决策受到其对外部威胁的感知以及上述三个假设的影响。尽管战略文化会随着时间推移而变化，但其基本特征依然存在，对理解俄罗斯的决策至关重要。

Deep Dive

Chapters

This chapter explores the concept of strategic culture and how it applies to Russia. It examines the historical context of Russia's strategic culture, including its geography, size, and economic challenges, and how these factors have shaped its strategic choices.

Russia's strategic culture is deeply rooted in its history and geography.
Its vast size and lack of natural borders have made it vulnerable to invasion, shaping its approach to security.
Russia's relative poverty has limited its resources and necessitated a focus on military strength.

Shownotes Transcript

'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions and threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choices, and Russia's has been strikingly continuous for centuries. As I discuss, it reflects the underlying circumstances and challenges of the country, and while not a straightjacket -- Gorbachev and Brezhnev were products of the same culture -- it helps explain Putin's own decisions. The entry page for the Conducttr online crisis exercise on Russian sabotage I mentioned is @ https://www.conducttr.com/russian-sabotageThe podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr), which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows), and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials including the (almost-) weekly Govorit Moskva news briefing right here).

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