Can California Regulate A.I.? + Silicon Valley’s Super Babies + System Update!
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Okay, see, we have some news about the show to start the show with this week. Yeah, but first I want na tell you a parable how .

guy love stories is getting.

So imagine for a second that you were a coffee during. I know you're a teaching her ballets. Imagine that you're more of a coffee guy and every week you go into your favorite coffee shop and you order a coffee and they say this ones on us, mr.

Noon, nice. And you do this weeks, maybe years go by and then they're just giving you free coffee. And then one day you show up and they say, you know, this coffee, uh, we love giving IT to you, but IT does cost us something to make.

And we have to pay our rent in their salaries for the employees. And so we actually want you to chip in a little bit for the coffee, but that only seems very Kevin, yes. So uh, that is a very approximation of what is happening with this podcast and with all yorker's podcasts. So the time is creating a brand new audio subscription. Uh, this is a way to support what we do here on hartford and what our colleagues do on shows like the daily, the as client show run up and many others.

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to subscribe if you want to sort of trace our journey as pod casters as we learn how to do that. yes.

So actually this is actually a Better deal than the parable I told you about the coffee shop because there if we were to sort of apply the same logic to the coffee shop parable IT would be like, well, you can have a free cup of coffee but if you want the the coffee that's like, oh, you're going na have to pay for that and who wants old coffee? No, not me, certainly. Yeah yeah. So if you want to support the work we do and the work that ah my colleagues at the new york times do on all our great shows, you can go to anyone times that come slash podcast to learn more about this new audio subscription.

Now I am having a little bit of a domestic uh, issue with technology in my hand, so I am testing a new robot vacuum cleaner.

Now, is this a Bruce?

Ruis Bruce. So this robot vacuum cleaner has uh some A I features built into IT including like a voice activation feature where you can basically say to the robot vacuum like start cleaning or go clean the living room and I will go do that. But the the wake word, the kind of activation word that the company has given IT is rocky that that's the alexa of this particular vacuum.

And I have a dog named Roger, and sometimes when i'm calling my dog, the robot vacuum will think that i'm saying rock and will sort of activate. And I asked the company, as I can, you can change the name of the vacuum so that it's not like accidentally going off when I call my dog Roger. And they're like, no, you what? You can change the name. So now i'm faced with the choice, which is, do I just continue to put up with these like accidentally activating a robot vacuum, or do you shoot your dog? I was going to propose changing my dog's name, but yeah, that that's another .

potential solution. What do you think I should do? The rocky, I think you should get a different robot vacuum with a different wake work.

You know, yeah.

that reminds me, you know, one of my friend group's favorite past times is I just like making up drag names. And so my boyfriend recently suggested as a drag name, alex, a play us setae. Just knowing that saying that that lab could cause havoc and you know, thousands of listener's .

homes brings me great joy. I mean, yes, if you are a listener, listen to this and you have one of these devices. You are now no longer listening to the podcast.

You are listening to deficit to I think we should just mess with our listeners. Smart home devices every week. Rocky, clean the living likes to turn .

the lights off.

I'm Kevin. The tech is in new ork times. I.

C, from platformer. And this is hard work. This week, the eight new laws california just passed to regulate A I at one big build at the governor vetoed.

Then the information. July, a black on some big new advancements in fertility technology and why silicon valley is going baby crazy. Finally, side for a system.

Something you and I care a lot about is how will artificial intelligence get regulated? Yes, we know that it's getting Better very quickly. And the very people building us have said was from the beginning, hey, if we're not careful, this stuff could get out of control in a hurry.

And I heard a lot of people. And a second thing that we know, Kevin, is that our federal government typically does not like to pass laws that regulate the tech industry. In fact, since twenty seventeen, the only major law that they have passed to regulate the techsters is you try to ban tiktok, and it's not actually clear that they will be a good with that.

Is that true? That's the only .

major technical nothing that has been signed into the individual houses of past to bill here or there. But in terms was been signed into law, no major regulation. But fortunately, Kevin, and I don't know if you remember this from your high school service class, the united states, we have fifty laboratories of democracy and their called states.

yes. And in these states, laws are passed. And Kevin, what if I told you that right here in the state of california, where many of the biggest A I innovations are taking place, lawmakers take a heart look at IT this session and he said, we're to do something about this.

Yeah, this is a really interesting story to follow because IT seems like what the federal government is sort of mulling and debating and they have this executive order now from the biden White house singly we're gona do something about regulating AI and we're directing about agencies to study at california, just went ahead and said.

let's let's start regulating yeah they said, why weight? And of course, in california, democrats have total control over the legislature and the governors office. And so legislature just tends to move pretty quickly through the the process here.

And today, I want to talk about IT because there were a ton of, I think, pretty important AI regulations that did pass and one very important regulation that didn't. And I want to get all your thoughts about IT. alright. So if you've heard anything about A I regulation in california over the past a few weeks, IT is probably that on sunday, Gavin newson vetoed a bill that has been very controversial called S P ten forty seven. And we're going to talk all about that. But before we do, I want to talk about the bills that newsom actually did sign because there were eighteen of them, and I think they go a long way toward addressing some of the most immediate concerns that people have about ways that I could go wrong. These the ones they .

didn't get all the attention, but may end up being important in long, long. So what did newsome sign law?

So i'm not going to go into all eighteen, but here are some of the the key plains of the legislation that he did sign over the past one. There is a bill that makes IT illegal to create or distribute sexually explicit images of a real person that appear authentic if they are intended to cause emotional distress. So these are basically what is sometimes called revenge porn that is augmented with general AI that is now explicitly illegal.

Now, uh, newsome also expanded ed, our existing child sexual abuse material statutes to luc m. That is created or altered using general vice. You cannot use these systems to create or altered C M.

Um there is a law that prohibits replicating performers, voices and likenesses in audio visual work without their consent, including after they have died. So the movie studios cannot just clone actors faces and voices and use them to make new movies without paying someone for that. There's a law that requires A I companies to post information about the training data they use, which of course, has been a big question for .

us for a couple years now. Yes, this is one that actually caught my eye. This was called A B twenty thirteen, and this one actually feels like I could be a pretty big deal. So starting in twenty twenty six, on january first, twenty twenty six companies in california that want to make an A I system publicly available will have to basically tell people where they got the data to train that system.

And why have they're been telling .

us that so are of, well, you know, people have lots of sources for this data, including some that they probably shouldn't be used. So if you are a company that maybe you scrape youtube for data to train your model, you are now going to have to disclose that when you release that model. And that could be a pretty big deal.

But I freaking out because I ve been training this huge model. Secondly, data that I scrape from the new york times, I heard that you guys are real .

stickler about that. I'll get layers attention on that.

Ah so that's a big one. There is another law that will require water marketing for A I images. The idea here is that if you are um seeing these images out there, you should have a way to tell that they were created with generate A I.

There is a law that will require the disclosure of general AI when it's used in a health care setting. There is one that will make robo calls, disclose when they are A I. I also think this is important, right? So if you got ta call from know, you're a business and you get to call from what you think is a person that's placing in order or something, my understanding IT is now going to say hate.

By the way, I am automated tool. And then finally, last way I wanted bring up, they really want to fight against A I miss information and deep fake election content. They are going to ban deceptive ads that are created with generate A I, and there are going to require platforms to label a election content that is created with or altered by generate a. So there's obviously a lot in there are. And i'm curious, in addition to that, the training, if anything in there stands out as, oh yeah, that actually seems important.

useful IT all seems sort of margin important. I think so much is gna come down to enforcement and like what happens to uh, companies or people who actually do use generate AI in these ways that are now prohibited in california. And we will see, I guess, as these laws start to come under the books.

I mean, this seems like the theme of the bills that governor knew some did sign into law is basically, if you are using A I for something important, you have to tell people that you're using A I for something important. And that seems like A A good sort of relatively uncontroversial type of regulation to pass. It's not saying you for most these things is not thing you can do A A I in health care or a in in robot calls, is just saying you have to identify that it's A I yeah.

And I think that, that is a good idea because there can be a lot of upside in the use of generate A I I think for created projects and particular, whether that's maybe you do you want to make some kind of art with IT or you want to use IT to create and add. I think that's okay. But there are just many cases where we want people to actively be disclosing that.

yeah. And I think we should also back up a step and say why we care about the regulations that are being passed at the state level in california because most people listening to this probably don't live in california. This laws won't apply to them right away.

But I think there's this feeling and reality that you are in the absence of strong federal regulation on A I. It's going to be the case that the laws that get passed in california and and other sort of early jurisdictions will sort of set the template for how A I will be regulated more broadly. All of these A I can you many of them Operate in california, are based in california.

Many of their employees live in california, many of their customers in california. And so in the same way that california's vehicle emission standards kind of became the national standard because you didn't want to be selling one type of car in california and another type of car on the other states. I think the fact that california is such a huge market for A I kind of mix, their state regulations, kind of the defective federal regulations.

that's right. There's so raising the floor for all of the regulations here. And so IT really does matter what gets passed here, all right?

So that's the stuff that actually did get past. And again, I think this goes the harms that we are likeliest to see right now. You know, we're in an election right now, right?

So there's a lot of stuff that I think the status wanted to deal with as these arms are starting to come into view. But then there was senate bill ten forty seven, and I think it's safe, Kevin. This was the most controversial A I bill that we saw this year, probably in any state.

Yes, this was the big one. S P. Ten forty seven was all I could hear about for several months this year. People in the AI industry were really worked up about IT. IT was sort of the subject of furious lobbying and posting and attempts to sort of sway the the state lawmakers and governor knew them on this.

IT has been such a big controversy inside the AI industry because unlike these other bills, which sort of regulate the use of A I, this was a bill that attempted to say, what should the regulations be on models themselves at the model layer of A I? So casey, for people who have not been following, uh, the sort of inter action drama of california state legislation, what is or was S P ten forty seven. So the main .

requirements of this bill, Kevin, were that one IT required safety task for models that had a development cost north of a hundred million dollars and used a ton of computing power and create some level of legal liability for these models if they were used to create harm.

right, and harms. In this bill, works are defined pretty specifically as things that would like cause no more than five hundred million dollars of damages or include, like loss of life. So we're not talking about like a model that's like giving people the wrong answers on their homework. This is like things that would really create catastrophes, harms out in society.

We've seen a lot of AI catastrophes the past couple years, like the launch of google, german I, but the fill would not have covered that. So look, after this bill got introduced IT then got water down. Cbt, you know, like initially there was a plan to create a new state agency to over.

They got rid of that. The liability requirements were actually a lot higher in the first version of this bill. In fact, there was even at one point a requirement that derivative models would be part of the liability regime here so that you took a matters llama and you fine tuned IT. I did something wrong with that meta would be liable for what you had done with the derivative model.

Yeah and people got really worked up about that, especially in the open source AI community. They basically said this bill would kill open source AI because who in the right mind would create an open source model and released the weight to the public if they could be held liable if someone down the road took that model and did a huge cyber attack with IT or something like that? So look, I think a lot of those fears will serve giant up for the purposes of rallying opposition to this bill. If you actually look at the bill, the version that was sort of voted through was much gentler when I came to these sort of derivative models. But that that was a big sticking point for a lot of AI companies and investors who didn't like the bill.

So that bill then pass the state assembly and the state senate in August. And IT went to gain newsom, who took a few weeks to think about IT. But this past sunday, on select twenty nine, he.

we do the bill. yeah. And that was not shocking. If you had heard what governor newson had been so saying about. He had been so tentative whenever he was asked about whether he was gonna n IT or not. So many people expected him to veto IT, but there was still sort of a glimmer of hope among some of the A I safety folks that I talk to that he would sort of realized that this bill and baLance was a good thing and was signed into line. And we would have some regulation of these huge AI models.

right? And and based on the pressure that he had been getting, you might have assumed that when he veto the bill, he would have said what the companies lobbing him said, which is this bill goes too far. But in fact, that was nobody said .

no there was this very strange statement ah that he put out after a vetoing this bill that basically made the claim that what was wrong with S P ten forty seven was that IT wasn't restrictive enough. He basically said this model IT would only apply to the biggest AI models, and IT wouldn't apply to smaller models, and smaller models can be just as harmful as big models. Sometimes I, I should say that basically no one believes him on this.

Lack of the folks are talking to their like this is not actually why government news of veto this bill. He vetoed IT because he was getting pressure from all these big companies and lobbies and he didn't want to like do anything that could hurt the tech economy of california. But that is what he claimed, uh, which is that the bill did not go far enough .

right and but you know, we should say that he also said we are not done with A I regulation in this state. He put together a group of people, including faa. Lee, who is an early pioneer, a eye search along with in A I eth, says a dean at U.

C. Berkeley and said they're going to work together to continue coming up with new guard rails for A I. I believe he also encourage lawmakers to bring him another similar improved bill in the next session. So I understand a lot of a safety folks are really disappointed right now. But at the same time ah, I fully believe that california will pass more AI regulations next year yeah.

I think so too. I actually so right now, people in the AI industry, many of them are celebrating having sort of successfully killed this bill that would have applied some regulations. I think you know a lot of the way that they killed the bill was by misleading people about what was actually in the bill.

If you actually look at IT, IT sort of wasn't as as tough. IT was much more leight previous versions of the bill. And know, I think IT actually was sort of a light touch way of regulating these huge AI models. But put that aside for a second, I think there's a potential that the tech industry will regret having killed this bill.

Why is so?

I think there are two reasons. One of them is, you know, we talk about these are two approaches to regulating A I, either at the model level or at the application level. And what has happened in this most recent legislative session is the california past, a bunch of use based laws about how AI models can be used.

And IT did not pass government to son veto the one bill that would have applied at the kind of foundational model level. And that is what the tech industry, the AI industry wanted, 呃， for the most part. But I actually think there's a world in which the u sped regulation of A I becomes much more annoying for them to deal with because this is what we've seen happen in europe, right? Europe did take the kind of used based a approach to regulating A I with their A I X.

And now all of the american A I companies hate doing business in europe because it's a patchwork of different regulations. There are forty different rules that might apply based on how you're using your a eye e system. You need to hire a bunch of compliance people and lawyers to sort of review everything that goes out to make sure it's not violating any of those dozens of different rules.

And I think there may be a point where the AI industry wishes that what I had gotten, instead of this patch ork of little use based regulations, was sort of one or a handful big, broad regulations that applied to the only the companies that are have the most money in the most resources and the most compliance people in the most lawyers to serve. Sign off on all this stuff. That's one argument.

The other argument for why I think killing sb ten forty seven, maybe something of an own goal for the tech industry, is that regulations around new and emerging technologies are typically written in the wake of crisis, right? There is something that happens where, you know, people die or there are catastrophic harms. And lawmakers rush to write some bills.

The quality of those bills is generally not super high. But that's because what lawmakers are trying to do in those moments of crisis. I just put a stop to the crisis.

I think the tech industry had in S. P. Ten forty seven was a chance to create regulation and rules for a new technology.

When there was no crisis that they were dealing with, there was nothing sort of immediate. They had months to kind of work out their objections to propose amendments. IT was sort of a peaceful time regulation.

And I think what may happen now is that we will get a broad A I regulation that applies to A I companies training these huge models, but we will get IT at a time that is much less favorable to them because these A I systems will improve. Something will go wrong theyll be some huge cyber er attack or some huge incident involving one of these AI systems. Lawmakers will scramble to get some regulations on the books. And I think the AI industry will be much less happy with the regulations .

that come out of this process. Yeah, I I think that, that is a really smart and interesting point. I have to say that I have been a mixed mind about this bill because on one thing, and I do want to see harms stopped before they come to pass. And on the other hand, i'm not convinced that california lawmakers really knew what harms they were solving for here because I still don't know that we have a very clear line of sight from the models we have today to the catastrophies that, that everyone is predicting at the same time. Kevin, as I mentioned at the top of the segment from the beginning, the founders have seduce these models that we are making.

Can we think eventually cause great harm? And if that is the case, if you take them at their word, when lawmakers come along and say, okay, we're going to believe you and we're going to hold you legally liable if you cause great harm and they thrown up their hands and they say, well, know what, we hold on a second. Let lets not get Carried away here.

There is something that I think damages their credibility about that. And I sort of feel like both things can be true, right? Is what i've saying here, right?

yeah. And I think in this weird way, the fight over sb ten forty seven has exposed something really important and and kind of counter intuitive, which is that a lot of the people who will say i'm an AI optimists are also the people saying, this stuff will never get so powerful that IT poses any threat to human life, or to society, or any these catastrophic harm that people are worried about. IT is actually the dumas who are saying that this technology is going to be incredibly powerful and useful and may be scary because IT is improving at such fast rates. So you have kind of this interesting um you know arrangement where the people who are the most optimistic about the actual capabilities of the technology are also the people who are taking the risks more seriously.

absolutely.

I want to make one more point, which is that I think that we've sort of been handed a false choice here, which is a well, do we regulate the um the the uses of A I or do we regulate the models themselves and I think in practice the answer is going to be both because we do this all the time, right? We regulate guns very lightly in this country and we regulate the uses of those guns, right? And I think something similar is just inevitably going to happen with these models. And so to your point, yes, the industry should be thinking about what reasonable liability awt we have in a situation where these models are is only powerful because they're never going to get away with only regulating IT at the level of the application.

Yeah I think that like regulation is coming. A I is just too powerful and we regulate every other industry that has that kind of power. Um and so A I is enable be going to be regulator. I think the question for the industries is how much regulation can they live with? I was at a an event last week with a bunch of serve lawyers and compliance .

people at the goals of fair.

No, not that one. This was an event of berkeley. And their point was basically, whatever happens, we would like for IT to happen at the federal level because you at least if you regulate A I at the federal level, then there's a sort of one law or one set of laws that companies have to follow.

They have clearly, they know, like I can use the same AI in california as I can, in texas as I can in florida, and they don't have to sort of you hire a bunch of people to know, cross check all of the various state laws. And so there ask was basically. Whatever happens on AI regulation, IT should happen at the federal level.

And I think that's something that I support to. I think what we're talking about now is a world in which the federal government does not do anything about AI regulation. And so it's up to the states like california to do IT yeah.

that's the world we live IT, let let me end done. Which thing do you think made a safer from AI the regulations that governor use them signed in the law in california over the past month or the fact that people just keep leaving OpenAI all the time, leaving IT in a parent to array.

I mean, look, I think that if you are a person who worries that AI is moving too quickly and you wanted to slow down, you probably don't mind all of this drama that is going on inside the A I industry because I think probably one effective that is that, that does actually slow things down if you're constantly losing co founders and research leads. And so maybe that's a good thing. Maybe it's may be it's the OpenAI people leaving.

I think that that's a true I think that over the past year and feels like the main innovation in A I and silicon valley has just been people leaving OpenAI to start A I companies and then IT just takes time. Yes, you know, IT takes time to wrap those companies up and do you're hiring and you know create your little wicky dog and notion for everything. So ah anyways, Kevin is a fascinating discussions.

Am sure we will have a lot more to say. But in the meantime, if you're going to make to fix they are in california. When we come back, we're having a baby, or least we would if the technology was good enough and it's not it's getting there.

What's talk about the latest infertility tech?

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Casey, we're onna talk today about something that has been a very hot topic and silicon valley recently, which is babies.

Can I don't know if i'm ready, have a baby with you. I'd really prefer to take a little more slowly.

Where are the forecast? That's true. That's our baby. No, we are talking today about fatlings technology because this has become a big topic within the tech world. Four years there has been this conversation in the tech world about what's being called pro natal ism, which is this belief spread by elon mask and others that declining birthrates, uh, in the us and elsewhere are a big threat to the future of civilization and we should all be having way more children than we are. And people aren't serve taking this banner in the tech industry and saying, well, maybe some .

technology can help us here well. And also just info link is a huge problem for a lot of people, right? Of people to have babies and cannot you know my boyfriend have been trying to get premium for many months just getting absolutely nowhere. So i'm excited that that silicon valley is finally you know, paying attention to this issue.

Yeah I mean, this has been an area where investors, uh, tech founders, startups are just spending an an ordinary amount of time recently. Um investors support s of millions of dollars into startups working on technology to help people conceive and have children. These are things like very specific types of genetic testing that contest a whole embryo s genome rather than just for a few sort of specific things, sperm freezing and even sort of these longer term moonshots like artificial womb, and something called I vg, which would basically allow you to make a amid from non reproductive cells to basically take some other cells of body and use that to create a child.

which, among other things, would let some x couples create a child.

You know, as we know, fertility and babies and birthrates, they are not a topic of conversation. Silicon valley, they are also playing a role in the presidential election as people debate, you know, what kinds of restrictions and laws there should be about women's reproductive rights and health. So to talk about this subject, I wanted to bring in Julia black.

Julia is a reporter for the information. And SHE went a great piece a few months ago called dawn of the silicon valley super baby, which was about sort of all this investment and energy going into fertility technology right now. And what that would mean for the pro natal ism movement and what that would mean for fertility as a whole. What's bringing in.

July black, welcome to hard fork.

Thank you so much for having me. I'm a big fan.

Oh, thanks so much. So can you just start by telling us how you got interested in this world of fertility attack?

Yeah, this started for me in a sort of unexpected way. Um in twenty twenty two I got a tip that kind of change my life which was that you on must have more kids than the public realized and some of them were with people who had not been previously disclosed.

So I went out searching and found some secret twins that he'd had with one of his employees of Angel as, and that just kind of sent me down this rabbit hole for the last couple years where I ve learned about. So gali is interested in fertility tack, in particular. And then i've learned about some of the technologies that are coming out of that interest.

IT looks try to sketch out that interest of bits if you are A A pro natalist. What is concerning to you about declining birthrates?

So I think a lot of economists would agree that there is some concern around the fact that the majority of developed countries now or below what's called the replacement rate. And when you structure that into an economy, something happens that they call the the flip demographic pyramid. So you've got more old people, fewer Young people.

And Young people are the people who drive the economy, who are putting into social security, who are taking the jobs. And all people are more of a weight on society. So that's the general concern. That is most basic. I think a lot of people take this and some pretty wicky and sometimes the injured reactions, the weight you premises movement has become particularly interested in these demographic shifts. And some people, I think, would argue that it's not just that we all need to have more babies, that certain types of people should be having more babies, which translates to White, educated, well off people, right?

So there's like this very billa version of this, which is like having babies is good for the economy, is good for economic growth. It's good to make sure that there are workers to take care of us as we age. And then there is a sort of more racist, more uga ics oriented version of IT. Um and and yes, so it's other a lot in here.

Yeah definitely I think that this fertility tack as a field has gone from this totally ignored um under developed ROM of technology to something that finally attracting investor interest and yeah is also attracting some weird ideological interest. So there's a few different elements funded up in there.

There was a quote in your piece uh that was so attributed to A A anonymous meta engineer who said something like no one is having children naturally anymore. That's obviously not true. Some people are still having children n naturally. But IT did not give a sense of like how pervasive this has become in the barrier where we live in in the tech world more broadly totally.

And you know the information where I write our audience is also look on valley all the time. So when you're talking about our small niche world, that's actually really true.

And that's the reason we put that quote in the story because IT really kind of exemplified what we're hearing across the board, which is like this is like, you know, the way that a trendy purse like takes off within a certain nh group of people like fertility tech is taking off. Like these people are going to dinner parties. They're telling their friends, oh, we use this new preimplantation genetic testing service. You've tt a try IT and they're trying IT and then they're telling their friends and it's like within this very small and non representative community, yeah, he really has taken off. Yes.

your piece made at a point that I hadn't seen before about the fact that crypto entrepreneurs, people who are interested in crypto currency, seem especially interested in fertility attack. Brian armstrong, the C E O of coin base h has invested in orkid e one of these that is doing embro genetic screening. The tea butter in the cofounder of the theory um has also invested in orchid. So what is the crypto fertility connection?

Oh my god, this has been like such a head scratcher and obsession of mine. And i've been trying to figure that out. The best understanding I can come to is that the cyntia world is also really interested in something called decentralized science.

D. C. It's kind of taking off in places like cement ceco in new york, but also in special economic zones like hondas and soa.

Have a couple of these prosper where people are experimenting with new scientific techniques that uh might not pass muster with fda regulation. There is like a big backlash to the fda in this crowd. So that my best guess is that, like this is a world that overlaps very much with that kind of bryan Johnson longevity obsession.

He, the guy does that the blueprint method.

Yeah, yeah. He's invested. Basically the all of his energy and money goes into the agent himself.

right? exactly. So I think that another particularity about this kind of solon valley audience, and and maybe more so, the cypher crowd, is like they just want the best of the best technology now.

They want to live in the future now. And so they hear about these technologies that might be possible but might feel far off. And you know they're going going to do everything they can to optimize and you know, optimizing their own fertility. Your reproductive process is like, why not? So I think especially with the genomic stuff and especially as A I has helped geno makes really advances quite quickly in last couple years, that particular crowd is quite drawn to these very futuristic possibilities.

I mean, I kind of get IT like, but I was telling casey before we start the interview, my wife and I have gone through fertility treatment and IT seems like IT should be A A way to sort of bring precision and control to the sort of random process of conceiving a child. But there is so much about IT that is still a kind of guesswork. And lets try this thing and see if IT impacts this thing. And like it's frustratingly in the exact and I can see if you are a person who spent your whole career trying to sort of optimize systems and eliminate chance and kind of program things like this technology would seem like a way to or bring or to what could otherwise be a pretty frustrating in chaotic process.

yeah. And I think i'd also note that there's a whole gaming of new face link related technologies that are coming to market .

is like gammy pen that you just did.

I I did have game to my notes here. I was going to talk about them later. I was just going to say that there's this like spectrum of um types of technology and some of them are really far out there, really advanced like artificial womb and to something that a company called conception is working on to try to make gams uh out of stem cells which means like two men could in theory take skin cells um use them to create an egg and sperm and reproduce using those cells like it's really far out there. That stuff is nowhere in you're possible at the moment. But i'm just saying like you you are seeing people in silent valley working across the board on you know current possible things first is like totally out there futuristic technologies yeah and it's not it's .

sort of far out there in the sense of this stuff does not exist in any form that consumers can use, right? But there are serious people investing in IT like saale man is someone who has invested in this kind of what are calling iv g this serve using, uh, non reproductive cells to especially grow babies, right?

yeah. And I think another name I would bring up is George church. He is an absolute pioneer of the genomics field. And he's got a hand in a lot of these companies. And I had the chance, talked to him and and he's is actually the one who kind of hinted to me the artificial whom which he is currently developing for his other company, cosso, which they're trying to bring .

back the William exactly .

exactly which you know you can scratch your hand your like what's the market value of bringing about the willing meth but then going to .

try to command an army of them and and to take over some small nation.

I'm sure you land mask could be interested.

So july, let's talk about these actual tools. H that you wrote about, uh, some of the fertility tech is on the market or will soon be on the market. Talk to us about or yeah so orkid .

is a company I read about in july with my colleague margin call and they're doing something called P G D P which is preimplantation genetic testing for polygenic disorders. This is not totally new uh, to the scientific gram. In fact, we've been testing for things like downs' drome, which is a pretty simple disorder that's easily detectable early on.

And we also have done testing for monogenic disorders that things like cystic fight process. But now polygamic disorders start to get really complex. This is stuff like schizophrenia, a bipolar diabetes.

And so whether claiming to detect war is the risk factor for these diseases, there is some speculation in the scientific community about how much of this is really possible. And yet this company has got a lot of investment and has now reached a lot of consumers. And his expanding actually to be nationwide. They have some partnerships with nationally clinics.

So yeah, is the cost to get your embryo tested this way?

IT costs twenty five hundred dollars in embro.

and that's on top of what you're already paying for. iva. This is not something that sort of like mass accessible yet, exactly.

But IT is part of the core american competency of making health care more expensive for everyone at all time. We've got actually coming for the Price of a mid range macbook pro. You could know everything about the genetic previous position of your new child seems like a small .

Price .

to so well of one number. And course, you're not just looking at one.

The many embryos are your land planting in a typical situation.

Well, you provide is going to implant one, but the ideas that you, anna, test arrange, so let's say a couple during the area process creates 8 viable embrace。 So then this company is offering to test each of those for twenty five hundred dollars pop. So what is up? yes.

So then they're gona look at those test and start to compare them and say, okay, this one is more prety disposed. They're not in that these kids gna have this disease, but more likely to have type one diabetes, or is this kid maybe is more likely to have bipolar disorder? So IT gives you this like chart, which is supposed to be this risk picture of your child's teacher.

So actual like babies have been born using this. Pre implantation to in that creamy that this is not theoretical. There are children out in the world today who were born after being tested this way.

correct? So as umbras they were tested and then they were the embro selected to be implanted.

How many babies has this been performed on? Like how widespread is this? Orkid wouldn't give us a number.

but no, I think a lot of parents are especially interested in this when they have genetic disorders that run in their families. A one really one is the rocket gen, which is responsible for breast and varian cancer in many cases. You know that's one use case example selling else we did discover through this piece is that elon and chivo, the parents who originally covered two years ago, did use this.

I don't know if they were using IT to test for um complex editor disorders. I did be with a few customers as I mark on my colleague, who did tell us that I Q testing was something that they had been offered by the company. The company did not confirm this themselves, but this is something we said we heard .

from a what does that mean? Like you can you there are some sort of gene that if it's present, you're likely to have a higher I Q as as an adult then in embro without that gene.

So remember apart when I said the scientific community is very skeptical in some of these claims um that would be the chief one I think the idea that you can detect intelligence and an embro um from what is a very complex picture of accommodation of many genes yeah that's very much up for debate.

So I can understand why parents you and have that history with cancer that you just mentioned, would want to know if if there are future title was going to be at risk for that and would be willing to, you know, pay A A high Price to try to avoid that.

At the same time, I imagine that there are other more kind of nice to have, uh, features that these parents might be testing for or things that sort of straight a little bit closer to the the line that we were talking about the top of the interview. So how all of these services able to sort of go in a in a bit of a dark ker or more concerning direction? Or or what have you heard about, you know maybe potential misuses of the screening technology?

yeah. I mean, I do want to be really clear if you go to orchids website right now, they lay out very clearly the services that they claim to offer. I think it's something like thirteen factors.

And again, it's things like diabetes, bipolar risk. They are not claiming publicly to detect I Q for whatever reason. Several different customers brought that to us and said that he was part of the package they received. yes.

So I do think a lot of people, a lot of bioethicists would argue that we enter this slippery slope territory um where you know it's it's one thing, as you say, to make sure that your child doesn't die of some horrific rare disorder. It's another thing when you start to get into the realm of you know characteristics of their appearance or their intelligence or behavioral traits. And I think that even something like bipolar k zohn a is inching more towards like behavioral traits.

Um in fact, when I wrote a piece two years ago about a different company called genomic prediction, I spoke with this cup also most american Collins, who again, we're doing some of this decentralized science D I White stuff. They were taking the data that they got from one company, plugging IT into another genetics company that was actually not supposed to be for embrace, but they were able to upload the data if IT was a person. And they showed me their spirit sheets, and like IT really was just wild, how many factors they clam to be detecting. They were tagged things like brain fog and propensity for headaches and mood disorders of various kinds and and so yes, some people are starting to inch more and more into that territory of like these fair complex um characteristics that make up who we are as human beings. And yeah, you would hate to see IT fall into the hands of someone who wanted to detect for blunter and blue eyes.

Are they able to detect the propensity an embryo to .

start a podcast .

later in life?

Yeah, I gentle. So I just have a question about the politics of all this, right? Because this is in a moment where there's a lot of discussion on the national political stage about reproductive rights and abortion rights. Uh there are some republicans um who don't even think that we should be doing I V F that that sort of a bridge too far.

How do the people who are pushing for this kind of investment in fertility attack square, uh their belief that this technology should be able to exist and be able to help people have more children, with the very real possibility that some elected officials want to make this kind of thing illegal. And thinking in particular about elon mosque is backing republicans who would make IT much harder for women to access reproduction health care of all kinds, but also wants there to be this population boom, because people are able to have more children. So how do they square that belief?

Ah, I think we're watching that play out before our eyes right now. I mean, a phrase I think of a lot in covering silone valleys kind of move towards the I is strange bed fellows like you are getting these alliances that in so many ways don't make any sense.

Um a couple weeks ago I was at a conference as I conference and services go and they had the heritage oundle like up there with these A I founders and like they did in fact half a panel on fertility, surprise, surprise and there are just so many incompatible abilities that I I really don't know how they're to scare them. The ivf question is um of course, the main one that is going to come up in terms of very tangible policy very soon. Yeah I don't have much to something like that. They're gna been for a rude weakening, I think.

Yeah the the question that a lot of people have about this topic is like how far are we actually from the kind of science fiction gatica scenic? We're like, you are a well off person. You want to have a child.

You kind of go into the fertility clinic and you just kind of get like a menu and it's like, well, do you want your child to be six feet tall? Do you want your child to have a high I Q? Like that'll be another five hundred dollars. Like how far are we from this scenario in which people, at least you know wealthy people, with access to good reproductive health care and will have the ability to kind of select traits for their offspring?

yeah. So again, I think this comes down to two questions. One is, one, the technology gna get there, and I think a lot of people in this field would argue sooner than you think. And then the other is one of society going to get there. Two place where we actually want that and where lawmakers actually make that possible.

And already IT IT seems like it's starting to become a bit of A A status symbol like I think your story gets at this where it's like friends love bragging to their friends that they just spent twenty thousand dollars on genetic screening for their embryos and ah what you didn't do that for your embryos, you know so to me I feel like part of that gatica world has actually already arrived here, Kevin, in at least some fashion totally well.

And I think what people don't maybe realized unless you've gone through this kind of fertility process is like there is already a kind of report card that you get back when you when you have embryos. And they also tell you, like this embro has this grade. There's already a lot of choice on the frontiers of fertility today.

But what we're talking about here is sort of a very different possible future in which is not just screening out sort of the most debilitating and in harmful genetic conditions, but it's truly are getting down to the level of like how tall do you want your child to be? Do you want them to have a higher risk of bipolar? Something like that feels just different fundamentally from what exists today. But maybe people, you know, twenty years ago, we're saying the same thing about the testing that now seems pretty commonplace today.

I mean, I we will say this women's baddies have always been this political battle ground that attracts controversy kind of no matter what, there have been ethical debates are where everything from ibf to epidermis. Um so you know on one hand, like if it's gona have to do with women and reproduction, it's going to be controversial.

On the other hand, there are some very real ethical concerns here that should be addressed and should be regulated very thoughtfully. And I I fear that like with so many things happening with tech, like with AI, as we've all seen, the regulators are right behind on this, are probably not working at the same speed as silicon valley innovators. So yeah they they probably to do some catch up yeah well.

Julia, thank you so much. This is really fascinating and it's a story I hope will keep track of um as IT continues to develop.

Was great to to meet you yeah thank you so much.

When we come back open a big fund race, another big updates from the past week and technology news.

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from time to time. We like to update our listeners on some stories that we've covered in the past that have had some new developments in a segment we call system update.

What's happening in the news, Kevin?

So the first system update is that OpenAI, a company we've talked about once or twice on the show, has just completed a six point six billion dollar fundraising deal that nearly doubles the companies evaluation from just nine months ago. The new round was LED by thrive capital, lots of other participants in the fund raising round microsoft in video soft bank M G X which is the sovereign alth fund of the united arab emeritus um but notably not apple, which backed away and declining to invest in open the eyes most recent round, according to reports.

Yeah and you know there are many reasons why the companies decide not to invest in things like this. Maybe they didn't like the financials, maybe they had concerns about the product road map. But of course, you can help but wonder whether apple looked at the steady stream of departures out of open eye over the past year and that maybe we don't want to put our eggs in that basket.

Okay, you've been covering text startup s and fundraising for a long time. How does six point point six billion dollars in fund raising at a one hundred and fifty seven billion dollar valuation compared to what .

other startups are raising? So that is, we believe, the largest venture capital funded rays of all time opening. I had previously raised ten billion dollars, but that was a sort of multi year commitment. So it's thought of somewhat differently and it's a huge amount of money at the same time.

Kevin, your colleagues, my iie and and griffin at the times reported last week that OpenAI is expecting about three point seven billion dollars in sales this year and eleven point six billion dollars next year. So assuming that is the case, that is an insanely high growth rate and IT really only values the company at around fifteen times or so it's forward earnings. And believe in or not in silicon companies often have much crazy multiples, right? They're raising at a fifty or one hundred x multiple on their expected revenues. So as big as a fundraise as this is, it's weirdly kind of in line with typical silicon valley projection. yeah.

I mean, I think the more relevant that year about OpenAI finances is this company, despite having had huge successful ChatGPT and making billions of dollars in revenue, is still burning through cash at just a phenomenal rates. So they're projected to lose something like five billion dollars this year. And that's in large part because it's just so damn expensive to keep building and training these models and paying all the people to do that.

Yeah and you know, I went to a press preview for their developer day this week, Kevin, and they had some pretty lavish shark tary boards that they had set out for us, a variety beverages and some macrones, which I say were delicious.

So with six point six billion dollars, uh, now in the bank, I guess they will be able to afford, uh, much Better and bigger shark tory boards.

They can also probably afford a much larger settlement with the .

new york times. I I almost forgot to disclose our Mandatory disclosures, which is that the new york times company is suing OpenAI and microsoft over copyright issues related to the training their models.

But um you know this is sort of goes to one of the big questions swing around this company right now, which is, is all of this growth ultimately going to result in big profits for their investors? Um or are they just kind of burning cash until they can get any more cash? Um you we've seen companies before that have been unprofitable for a huge stretches of time. Think about amazon or uber or recently, which was unprofitable for most of its existence, and then you kind of found ways to become more profitable over time? Or is OpenAI the kind of company that will just keep burning cash until they run out clear that .

they have found some real consumer demand and have been able to answer that with products that people really like, right? Like ChatGPT is probably the most successful new consumer brand launched on the internet since tiktok, I would say. And more and more corporations are signing up to use its a and custom enterprise versions of its software to perform various task, some which can save those companies a lot of money. So there is something very real here. And we know that while general AI is extremely expensive to run their big computing cost, energy costs and so on, the growth rate suggests that at some point these numbers will pencil out or at least that I think.

yeah, I I think so too. And I think one other thing that we should talk about in relationship to this fundraising deal is that open a eyes, apparently telling employees that they may now be able to do aid, what's called a tender offer a for their a stakes in the company.

That's where they make you an offer. But they say, in a really nice, gentle baby, what if we just give you a few dollars for those sweet.

sweet are exactly what a tender offer. A tender offer um also means that employees could potentially cash out their a employee shares in this company. And as we know, OpenAI and A I companies sometimes pay people phenomenal amounts of money to work there. And so a tender offer IT could be pretty meaningful. alright.

Well, that's enough of an update about open a what in the news, Kevin.

So this next system update is about redit, a company we talked about in the context of last year's big protests by moderators. As you may remember, there were some changes to read its pricing structure for developers. Moderators got very upset about this. A bunch of them took the subway, its private, in protest of the company's decisions. IT sort of threatened to hurt the site as a whole. And as of this week, redit moderators, according to these new rules, will not be able to change the public or private status of their subject without first submitting a request to a redit admin uh this policy will apply to all community types on redit and IT is basically trying to take away one of the ways that uh users and moderators were able to stage a protest against the company last year, right?

If all of a sudden most of the redit are private, IT drives traffic away from reddit, which means less advertising revenue for them. And so this was a really novel form of protest, I think, that editors essentially invented and the company has now gotten around to saying, ah yeah, we hate that and you can do that anymore but you know I love about this story so much, Kevin, is that in a way this like mirrors the um history of free speech in amErica which was like at first it's like go ahead, stage your protest, gather anywhere, say whatever you want and now it's like, oh yeah you can have a protest but you do need to apply down at city hall and actually gona put you in the designated free speech zone. Pull you with tomatoes while you hold up your protest side so red if is just sort of finally getting around to the same idea that many american municipalities of that which is that despite what IT says in the first amendment, we hate free speed in this country .

ah despite all your rage for editors, you are still just a rat in a cage that's actually a .

kind of catchy lyric have ever thought about you that music?

I'll keep IT in consideration. okay. Next item on our system update. This one is about deep fix and is from a story in the new york times with the title deep fake collar poses as ukrainian official in exchange with key senator. This is a story about something that happened to senator Benjamin carton, who is the chairman of the senate foreign tions committee. And IT is a wild story.

Oh my god, yes. Like this is sort of like if if I mission impossible movie came out today, this is the sort of scene that you would expect to open IT. So this story .

was first reported by punched news h, but the times learned about IT from an email that was sent, send IT security to lawmakers offices, and started to piece together some of what happened here. Senator carden gotten email from someone claiming to be the metro co. Labor, ukraine's former minister of foreign affairs, asking him to meet over zoom.

He got on. Zoom took this meeting and saw someone who looked and sounded like the metro co labor, but this person started asking weird questions, like, do you support long range missiles into russian territory? The senator reportedly ended this call and reported that to state department authorities, who confirmed that this was indeed a deep fake and not really the former ukrainian .

foreign minister. So you know, this is something that people have a later about for years is written size I about. But look, I think we're getting to a point now Kevin, we're like with the of the family members in your life are like close business associates.

It's actually time to come up with a code word totally like have a code word and if you get invited to a to assume and the conversation takes a sort of suspicious turn and you know certainly, if ever any, my friends asked me about long range into russian territory, I would get suspicious. And that's what you say, what's the code word? And if they don't know that, well, you know that you've ep fake. But IT is pretty wild to think that we have already arrived at that point where now U. S editors need to be on the look .

at for this sort of thing. Yeah, I thought we would probably had another year too before this would start to happen because the among other reasons, like the video deep technology for like a real time video conferences just isn't that good. yes.

But you know, as we know, people sort of pay flitting attention to zoom calls. May be you're doing something in another window, maybe are not looking super closely at the lips and the mouth of the person you're chatting with. And so this might just totally a full you, even if you are someone sophisticated or who knows that this thread is out there.

And let me throw something else into the mix. One of the things that OpenAI announce at their developer day is the availability of the A P. I. For their real time voice tool that made such a splash earlier this year when, of course, you'll remember that people thought that sounded a little bit too much like scarlets johanson. Well, now other companies are going to be able to come and use those voices for their own purposes.

All you need in addition to that is some of the voice cloning technology that, that companies like eleven labs are working on all of a sudden and you're gona have extremely plausible phone calls that can do this exact sort of thing with the added bonus that you don't have to create sort of uh, realistic like visual depiction of the person. So I just want to make sure that we keep paying attention to this stuff because. People are already running all sorts of scams with this.

and I just seems like it's going to keep any worse. Yeah, next system update. So nose has a plan to earn back your trust. And here IT is, this is from the verge. H, as you will remember, uh, back in may, sonos got into a lot of trouble because IT replaced uh, its APP which allowed you to control your internet connected speakers with a new and much worse APP that basically user said was impossible to use a among the features that were either missing or broken were things like local library support alarms, q management, whatever that is, and even some accessibility options. Cue management is .

like the order of the songs that are playing, which is huge, important and constantly adJusting. My well know, sometimes you want to hear a song a little earlier.

someone hear later. So i'm not a sono guy, but this was a big deal for you because you are a sonus guy. And this was A A big change that you did not like.

I have made A A massive investment. And Kevin, and when I heard they had a plan to earn back my trust, the first thing I thought was, did you think I trust to do? Because I never trust to do so.

Now i've had my eye knew for a long time, you know, the rolled out of this APP. Kevin also sort of made me giggle a little bit because, well, everyone else was complaining about the new APP and the features that have. I was like, the old APP never works for me either, like these people.

Here's a thing, they make wonderful hardware. And when everything is firing on all cylinders, and when you actually manage to connect the sonos, spotify and your houses is rocking, there's nothing like IT. The problem is IT is a very inconsistent system. And everyone been hoping that eventually they get their act together and highly bring all the pieces together, and then we could just enjoy the very good hard.

Whether they did IT does not seem like IT should be something that takes like years of work and many talented engineers to do, like make a speaker that connects to the internet in your house and place the songs from your spotify. Like that seems like a track to the technology problem. But IT appears to have thrown this company into a state of chaos.

IT does. But, you know, look, I do think that there are real technical chAllenges with synchronizing. The audio across multiple speakers actually think this is where sonus gets into.

The most trouble is if you're in a relatively large space, you have a limited wifi connection, you have a stream of music, and you need to route IT to let say, five, six, seven speakers. And all of the music has to be in sync at all times. That is a technical chAllenge and they have made some strides in fixing IT. But then along comes this after buckle. And well, they they have been having a terrible year.

but you and other sonus users will be pleased to hear that sonos has a seven point plan to earn back your trust. And let me just read some of these points to you. Uh, point number one is unfaithful focus on .

customer experience. You know, I was I was so sad to see that focus waivers over the past year that we will no longer be waivers.

Point two, increasing the stringency of prelaunch testing seems like a good idea. Point three, approaching change with humility.

These have you university so far? All these are fake changes like. None of these are real thing.

None of these are fixed. The dam APP exactly. But they also say they're na commit to relentless APP improvement and also extending our homes speaker warranties.

Now that is actually a real thing, yes. So if you have a homeless aker that you bought from sonus over the past year, so they will extend the warranty for another year. And that actually does seem like a nize even though, by the way, the problem is not that the speakers stopped working, so extending the warranty like doesn't actually really do anything. But you know, I guess that is something nice.

So we got out of all this. My favorite ite changed that they propose actually in the seven point plan is is number four, which says that they are going to appoint a quality ubud z person, which is tech company. I speak for a person that people can yell when their speakers start to male function. And I got ta say, this sounds like the worst job in america.

I don't know if, like, I got you a direct like email line to patrol pense the C E O of songs, and you could just sort of afford him all complaints that you, if that actually this sounds kind of fun, i'd be interested in that job, honest. I like Patrick, by the way, another four hundred emails from people who can get spotify to work that would be fun to do.

This journalism thing doesn't pan out. They are hiring.

I want to be part of the solution.

And, uh, the company also said that they .

are hugging in, oh my god, wait, why did we save this for the .

end of the segment.

kay, we got a breaking news. Send out a new york times push alert. Sotos is packing its.

Wow, I really step to that one. Wow.

just when they had a plan to earn back my trust, talk about an unwavering focus on the customer experience. What are to use? Yeah this is staying ah what I was trying to say is that .

the company is demonstrated its commitment to these changes by pegging executive bonuses to improving the quality of the APP and rebuilding customer trust. But now I almost don't want to say that because what is proceed this for something .

glad because the number one thing I ve been thinking this whole time is how our executive bonus is being affected by because in these people are not properly incentivised getting to maintain their unwavering ing focus on the customer experience. I don't know how we're ever gonna lay this.

I think we should implement equality on bud's person .

for the hard fork podcast. sure. Come at me, bro. Yeah, yeah. I think we like you.

Well, look, love to say we do read the emails that are set to us and we're hearing the feedback later, which is that you would rather be listening to a different back. I don't know why you email ed that to us, but you did. So thank you.

We did get one email this week that I thought was very nice, which was from a person. He said no, because we did that whole as thing on the show last week about the hot Kevin roose from the netflix documentary. There was someone who wrote in, said a very nice thing, which was that actually the real Kevin's is the hot Kevin and .

I appreciate that that is very nice.

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