Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Can we just acknowledge how refreshing it is to see a president of the United States at an event that doesn't begin with a bailiff saying all rise? All rise!
Okay, Hector Ruse, that was comedian from Saturday Night Live, Colin Jost. Am I pronouncing his name right, Gibbs? Good comic, working the worst gig in comedy. That is the deadest room you can possibly do it. Room has buried more careers than I can think of, but I thought he did an admirable job at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
Murphy, it's actually pronounced Mr. Scarlett Johansson. It's an alternative pronunciation to just. I got you. I got you. I thought he did pretty well. I boycotted that event since the mid-90s. I'm a grumpy old bastard. But it was a fun comic performance. But we were full of dark comedy this week and every dimension of American politics and
Joining me, the one and only, the great Robert Z. Gibbs, my podcasting partner this week. And, you know, to understand the bizarro nature of this, we had to bring in somebody who understands both the sacred and the profane, the politics of the high and the low, the one and only, our pal, you introduce him.
The one and only Paul Begala, who I, you know, he can tell us, but I have a feeling that Paul has written more than a few lines for a White House Correspondents Dinner, be it a president speaking or somebody else. Pundit extraordinaire, campaign guru, Paul Begala. Paul, tell us, you've written a few lines, haven't you? A few back when I worked for President Clinton, and it was a different time. Those were fun.
They're cathartic to write those things, aren't they? Exactly. It was. I haven't been and won't go again because I peaked in 2011. I was a few feet from Barack Obama when he eviscerated Donald Trump. It was the dadgum to sing. I absolutely destroyed him. And we now know that was the night that he had given the go order to kill bin Laden.
It was the most extraordinary performance I've ever seen. He was hilarious. I don't remember who the comic was. By the way, during that dinner, I'm sitting at the CNN table and Barbara Starr, our Pentagon reporter, comes over to me. She says something's going on. I think or I heard she says this is from memory, so I'm probably getting it wrong. She says, I heard that we've captured Saddam's kids, Uday Kusek.
And I see Leon Panetta sitting two, three tables over. I said, well, I'll go ask Leon. Leon's running the CIA for the president. I go over and ask Leon. And Leon, I've known him a long time. He's very transparent. He's very emotional. You know, he's an Italian guy. Absolutely impassive. He said, no, no, we don't have nothing going on. Nothing to see here. It was one of the most amazing nights of my life. Later, I look back and to see the cool and the calm and the mastery that President Obama showed. I mean, it was just, it was like, I'm never going again. That's it. I'm done.
It was also a big tell because, you know, Obama had his 20 minutes of dynamite on Trump, made money the old-fashioned way, inherited it, etc. And Trump was there stone-faced, you know, the same thing with Charlie Manson. They just don't have a big sense of humor about themselves.
And it was a real tell of who Donald Trump is that I wish the country had even taken a little more seriously. Well, speaking of sitting stone-faced, while people will say less than nice things about you in this case...
The former publisher of the National Enquirer testifying about your new catch and kill. Donald Trump's new sitcom is four days a week on a cable channel near you, Murphy, inside of a courtroom.
in famed New York City. What did you take away from the first week of the trial, and were there any catch-and-kill stories that involved you that you need to confess to on this podcast?
Oh, I've been knocking stuff down forever. Are you kidding? You know, don't even get me started. I'm here in New York right now checking in. All you got to do, particularly if you're a Democrat, is call the New York Times and say spike it. You know, that's how the media works. Oh, yeah, that's definitely how it works. You've never read a critical story of Democrats. We can get to, by the way, a little back and forth with the New York Times and I think what produced one of Joe Biden's better lines as well.
Yeah, no, no. That's one of the big things that White House Correspondents Dinner is about, is the president being able to take a few shots at particularly the New York Times, which every White House hates. And there was a big piece, I think, I can't remember the organ it was in, about the current war between the two. Politico. Yeah, we can get to that. Yeah, Politico. We should probably talk about that down the road. Well, let me talk about the trial for a minute. I'm curious what you characters think about it. I have...
What was a contrarian opinion, but now I think is spreading, so I'm worried. If conventional wisdom accepts it, I know I'm wrong. But I never thought the outcome of the trial, other than maybe a hung jury or, God forbid, an acquittal, which I think is highly unlikely, that would give Trump a reset, that would have a big outcome. But other than that, half the country thinks Trump ought to be in jail without a trial.
And the other half thinks it's all rigged because Hillary and Hunter Biden, they're not behind bars. So the whole thing's set up and you get into all the partisanship. So the outcome, I think, is slightly bad for Trump. But here's what I think is really, really bad for Trump. The optics of this, the pictures, because Mr. Tough Guy, Mr. Strong Man, Mr. Super Dude in Charge now looks like a mangy old caged ass.
ex-Pride Chief lion tangled up in a tent looking for one last sip of water before it goes up to the Lion Kingdom in the sky. Trump looks weak and beaten and crazy and old. So I think just the
the optics of this, the platform of it, is conveying things about Trump that are true, but that are kryptonite for his kind of manufactured image. So in that way, I think it's been quite bad for him and will continue to be bad. But Gala, what's your take on the courtroom scene in New York and its political impact? Yeah, spot on. Trump...
My side always gets it wrong when we attack Trump for being a bully, a strong man, etc. Right. Every time we do that, it just makes Trump look strong, which is his brand. Right. Helps him. I think Murph's exactly right. He looks weak, old, tired, sleepy, gassy, silent, crushed. It is. Your metaphor is perfect, Murph. For many years, my mama lived in Florence, Alabama.
Gibbs country. And that's the home of the University of North Alabama. And back in the day, they had Leo the lion who was in a cage, you know, about yay big. He could barely fit in. And he was just that way. He paced back and forth. I think he probably, you know, blew a circuit. And that is kind of what Trump.
Looks like kind of a pathetic old circus lion covered in mange once roared fearlessly. Now he's just, just a loser, just fat, old, weak, gassy, sleepy. These are not attributes wanting their present loser. What's the practical implication to Murphy is you've got a guy who is, is like I said, busy four days a week.
There's no court on Wednesday. I think there's a rally planned somewhere in this great country on Wednesday for Trump because it's... Waukesha, Wisconsin. There you go. One of the seven places you'll see presidential candidates spend an inordinate amount of time this year. But, you know, practically speaking...
uh you know he's left to sort of how mutedly uh on true social uh and pop up either on a wednesday or sometime in the weekend they tried to do the rally in north carolina a few weeks ago and uh let's just say stormy weather uh prevented oh put me down for a long groan stormy weather kind of canceled the rally so what the practical impact too is you have not just a guy that's defanged
Monday through Friday, but somebody who's also practically just not on the trail in a way that I think most candidates are itching to be out.
His signature event is him thundering away in a, you know, tier B hockey arena to 2000 people. Now he's like the old, you know, we've used the metaphor to death here, but the old broken guy, it's like watching Superman hobbling in asking for a trust. You know, it's just everything about it isn't working. And he has denied the one platform where we can look strong thundering to a crowd of acolytes.
So it's great. I mean, it's, and I, my theory though, we were going to talk about this CNN poll, um, is that whichever one of these characters is kind of in the weekly spotlight tends to do a little worse than the pulse. You know, when, when, when the lights really on Trump, uh, in a, in a defensive situation like this, he tends to sag a little, uh,
when the light's really on Biden, it's not always been so good for Biden. You know, I would argue maybe State of the Union would be an example of the opposite. But generally, neither of them do particularly great on stage with the microphone. So half the strategy becomes make sure it's about the other guy this week.
And so I think that's what's been happening. And the only thing that could really work for Trump, and I think there's a decent chance of this, is it's a hung jury. There's somebody there who just digs in. And then, you know, in the legal system, that does mean you're innocent. It means kind of a tie. But Trump will declare, I've been, you know, vindicated. It's over. And I think, and Axelrod's talked about this, and I agree with him.
legally, and send all your angry mail to Robert Gibbs at Hacks on Tap. But legally, and believe me, I'm one of the half of the country that would rather see Trump in leg irons without a trial. I think guilty as sin ought to be a Secret Service code name.
But he this is legally the trickiest one because it's a carom shot. It's kind of a little bit weaker. So the chance of a hung jury, which he will spin as free at last, free at last and get a little comeback that that that real lion is lurking in the political narrative woods, I think.
um but i the outcome to me isn't as important as just as long as he can be sitting there manacled to a chair falling asleep and burping and drooling i think it's i think it's a gift to the biden campaign well murphy though you bring up an an important point loath as i am to admit it um this may well be well one this is the trickiest prosecution right but secondly uh based on our our uh
I don't think probably people were asleep when we when when we changed Supreme Court's and the otherwise originalist conservative majority sought to greatly expand Article three of our Constitution and provide innumerably more powers to the chief executive by protecting him through.
some likely decision on immunity, Paul, there's not likely to be another trial in calendar year 2024, certainly not before the election. And whether there's not in 2025 almost certainly depends exclusively on what happens on election day. Well, I think it's definitely right. The court, the Trump court, it's not the Supreme Court, it's the Trump court. At every turn, they are going to do whatever it is they need to do to help Trump.
Right. Now, back in the day, they expedited the election decision on Bush versus Gore so they could install George Bush, despite the fact that he got fewer votes than the other guy. Yeah.
Now they're delaying, delaying, delaying on everything. And courts are very good. So I think that's right. I have been like y'all a skeptic about this Alvin Bragg case in New York for the reasons that Mike states. It's a misdemeanor business records offense that's ratcheted up into a felony because the allegation is he he falsified business records in order to to manipulate the election and to violate campaign finance laws.
And I was kind of skeptical also because it seemed to me to rest in the testimony of Michael Cohen, a convicted perjurer. And so they opened with David Pecker, who not a very attractive human being, if you ask me, not very appealing. And they got Cohen. But then right before the trial, bragging out something that
made me stand up take notice hope hicks yes this is the interesting trash mr pecker for being a national inquirer guy and and probably should you could trash michael cohen for being a convicted perjurer and a liar you can trash stormy daniels because she made her living in the adult film business fine hope hicks is a trump loyalist she's never been found to be guilty of anything much less the kind of serious crimes that michael cohen went to prison for and if she is in fact confirming
The allegations and that could really, really hurt Trump. I mean, really hurt him because you can't the Trump people can't. They will try. They can't trash her. She's just not. So if she who knows what she's going to testify. But my guess is the D.A.
has already taken her to the grand jury. And so they know quite well what she's going to say because she's already been under it. If I'm Trump, that's the moment where your sphincter puckers, man. It's like, I can handle Michael Cohen, but I don't, what do you do about Hope Hicks? So I think that's, she's going to be the star witness in this case. I agree with that. It also opens the door that
To the whole narrative, everybody who's worked for Trump says, whatever you do, America, don't put this psychopath back in the Oval. I mean, you know, it's sort of amazing that if you look at a poll, the highest Biden crosstrap in terms of total support is former Trump. You know, White House employees, they're 99 to 1 percent for him, only Barr holding out.
So it's interesting and hope will be good TV. So I agree with that. And I'll just put in the disclaimer, you two commie left-wing Democrat pinkos, that the fine Supreme Court is to me not a complete rubber stamp court for Trump, nor, by the way, will this save him on this immunity thing.
Because he basically asked for a 007 license to do whatever he wants. That's basically. And normally in our legal system, we have two outcomes, guilty and innocent. I mean, on that appeal, legally, the only legal outcome is, you know, you're shitting me.
because it's just an impossible ask. Now, they might taper it on the edges. And Paul, I know you've been disbarred in many states. You've actually got a law degree. So you might have a view on that. But I don't think there's a lot they can do because they can't, that blank check that he wants of immunity because everything he does is a rule of God on earth, I think is impossible, won't happen, even with this court if you take a really dim view of it. He's still cooked. The problem is next year.
Because the stronger cases, the next 30 seconds is based on never having gone to law school. But but I play a lawyer on TV. But look, Mike, what they're doing. I mean, first of all, they they they talked in.
They talked about some larger theory of presidential immunity in a world that didn't exist. One, that's not what they're being asked to decide. They're being asked to decide the immunity of somebody who did what Trump is has been charged with.
And so what they decided to do was to start listing things that might cause them grief. Paul, you might have gotten a bit of a chuckle out of Justice Kavanaugh being deeply concerned, Murphy, write this down, deeply concerned about the runway prosecutorial efforts.
uh, desires of an independent council for our less savvy listeners. Brett Kavanaugh was part of the Ken star team that bedeviled, uh, but Gala's, uh, friends in the white house for years, uh, before producing, um,
bit of a dud in terms of a report. So I'm a little nervous at what the Supreme Court is going to do. And look, the reality is, if all they do is pick up the football and move it to next year, that in and of itself is as big a check as you can almost write. I listen to the order of organs, and I do have a lot of green. I have very expensive law books on my shelf.
I was struck really by just what you're saying, Robert. Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, particularly, Trump appointees, were saying, Gorsuch used this phrase, we're writing for the ages. No, you're not. No, you're not. That's the Congress's job. You're legislating from the bench when you say that. You're supposed to resolve a case in controversy brought before you. Justice Jackson, who Mr. Biden, President Biden appointed,
She just dismantled this because she asked Trump's lawyer each of the charges that
and asked him, was this in his official capacity as president, or was this outside official conduct as president? And the first question was, you know, when, I don't remember even which is the case here, but let's just say he calls the Secretary of State of Georgia and says, find me 11,000 votes. Is that official act as president, or is that, you know, in office, or is that the office seeker? And he said, well, we dispute all those facts. She said, granted, right, absolutely. You dispute them, you should litigate them, you should defend your client.
Was that allegation conduct within the purview of your office or not? Each one, he said, well, no, that's outside the office. That's outside the office. That's outside the office. So the court could very quickly say the conduct alleged in this case.
is outside the scope of presidential conduct, clearly outside. Even his own lawyer says so. So this is an easy case. We're going to resolve it. You certainly don't have immunity when you're acting way outside your case. This is not a case of President Obama ordering a drone strike against a terrorist in Iraq. So they could easily do that. And Justice Jackson really showed that. And Kavanaugh and Gorsuch basically said,
We're not going to decide the case in front of us. We're going to make grand policy as if we were a super Congress. This is exactly what they did in Dobbs. Dobbs case was a narrow case about a Mississippi set of restrictions on abortion.
Does Mississippi have the right to restrict abortion? I think after 15 weeks or something like that, maybe six. They didn't resolve that. They said, oh, we're going to step back throughout 49 years of constitutional jurisprudence. I'm sorry. My respect for the Supreme Court would not fill a thimble.
They're hacks of the worst sort. We ought to invite them on. I was going to say, Murphy, we may need to get Alito on next week. Oh, I'd love it. I'd love it. It would be great to straighten you guys out. My favorite, just for 10 seconds, is the theory that if we say we could prosecute presidents, they would be less likely to leave office easily and without some threat or some act involved.
And to your point, Paul, the newest justice who's a shining star already, you know, said, wouldn't it be the other way around? I'm still reading Alito and not understanding his reasoning there. Oh, you think you got problems now? Wait till Trump wins and Judge Judy is on the court. Stay tuned. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors.
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it was kind of the proverbial turd in the punch bowl because Biden's had a little bit of a recovery, at least in the national polls. And one of our off repeated maximums here on hacks on tap is careful on the national polling. They don't predict things the way they used to do because the electoral college doesn't correlate to the popular vote. Like it used to only five times American history of the diverge, but now twice since 2000, then didn't happen for a hundred years. So again,
Watch the six and Gibbs will argue seven because of the DNC spin about North Carolina, which might be true, by the way, with the crazy Republican gubernatorial candidate there. Nonetheless, CNN, this poll is.
struck me as interesting and noteworthy, but I'm suspicious because it's a variant from the others. It shows Trump six points ahead in the national poll. I think if Trump wins, the odds are still pretty good that Biden would win the popular vote. It would purely be an electoral college move. Second,
It says that 55% of Americans think Trump did a good job. And it has Biden's job approval at 60% new high unfavorable, where most of the polls roll him in the low 50s. Still trouble.
But on every dimension, this thing is like four points to the side of other polling. Now, that happens once in a while. Polling is hard to do. It's hard to get people in the modern era to do a phone interview or generally it's text online. But what's our take on this? Do we think this is signal or noise as to what's been happening? Because most of the other polls have tightened a little bit.
And I had a whole unified field theory I went through before that whoever's in front of the cameras tends to be doing a little worse because people don't like either one of them. I joke it's the first quantum election where
where one thing, the electorate, can have two diverging opinions at the same time. You know, I don't like either one of them, but you have to vote for somebody. So what do we think about that? I'm curious for your take as longtime poll observers. I do work for CNN, so everything they do is perfect in every way. Of course. That said, it is literally an outlier. It's different from all the other polls. We don't know yet whether it's different because it's ahead of the curve and it's more right.
or it's wrong. As a strategist, that's as an analyst, okay? As a strategist, I would embrace it because this is the thing I think that President Biden has not got in his head. There is not a pro-Biden majority in America, but there is an anti-Trump majority. So when you go to your voters, all those leftists pissing and moaning that somehow Biden is not Che Guevara,
go to them and say, yeah, well, the other guy's going to win. Oh my God. Oh my God. Right? Fear is a wonderful motivator and frankly, a better motivator than love. And so stop trying to get everybody to love you, Mr. President. Just get them to fear and hate the other guy, which is
Boy, is that a that Clinton would call it? That's a bird's nest on the ground. I mean, you just had to bend over and pick that up. Every decent person hates and fears Donald Trump. So I would embrace it. You know, you go to your doctor and she says, well, you know, your triglycerides are elevated and your bad cholesterol, your good cholesterol is down. Do you say no?
Yeah, but you know, I had sausage for dinner last night and that might've really spiked it just a one day thing. Or do you say, all right, doc, I guess I got to, you know, eat more broccoli. Right. So this is just correct your habits anyway, even if the poll's wrong.
I think it's useful to motivate your base. I'm still struggling with birdcage on the ground. What do you do with the bird's nest? You just reach down and pick it up. So then he'd eat the nest, right? Well, it's metaphorically Europe. Yeah, southern thing. Yeah.
So, Gibbs, what do you think? I think the only problem with that, because I agree with Paul, when in doubt, terrify your supporters into action. That's a good tested strategy. But this damn poll says 55. The best number in the poll is 55% say Trump was a good president, essentially, or did a good job as president, which is, you know, I think six points higher than his ballot at 49, which is still six.
ahead of Biden. So either America's moving or this poll forgot to call African Americans. It's like one or the other. A million people who probably thought poorly of the Trump presidency died in the Trump presidency because he mishandled COVID. So there's that. That might change the stats a little bit, just so
The fact that a million people are dead because he told us to shoot bleach up our butts. Okay. I'm going to let, even as a Trump hater, I'm going to let that one slide over to Gibbs here, the arbiter of all things good and tasteful. Go, go ahead, Robert.
Well, I agree with Paul on using it to get your base excited or to scare the shit out of them and get them to get moving. I also think it's a good point that we don't know whether this is the beginning of a trend or an outlier. And we'll know that in sort of a...
I mean, my great, I have two cautions about on, on national polling Murphy. Cause I feel like we have to say it again, even though you sort of said this in the beginning, which is one and you're going to, you're starting to see this already stories about this voting group and this age group and all this sort of stuff. And boy, let me tell you when they start doing samples of like 18 to 35 year old men in the United States, uh,
off of a seven or 800 person poll. You're talking about making these grandiose sweeping thoughts about 40 people that answered, uh, answered the phone to do the poll. So just be really careful about that. Um, two, the other thing is, look, I love national polls because I'm a poll addict. Like everybody is that listens to this. We don't elect presidents nationally. If we did the last few years might've been last 25 years would be different. Um,
So watch state polls, and I've got a point on that in a second. Look, the challenge Biden has, and if you look even back at the Better New York Times poll, there were those numbers of people have, and you guys have talked about this when I haven't been on, but people have a view of the economy, not during the pandemic, but pre-pandemic for Trump and post-pandemic for Biden,
That hasn't redounded well to the president simply because of one thing, and that's inflation. And so even in the Times poll that, again, was better for Biden, there's still a hangover of people having a better view of the Trump presidency than I think most people do. Or most people should, if I should say that, because they clearly have—he comes out better in terms of—
mental fitness. He comes out better in terms of the economy than Biden does. And so, look, that's a serious problem for this White House. I think, and there's a long interview out, or a long story out this morning from Time magazine. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, it still exists, time.com. But they did two interviews with Trump. I'm going to build off what Paul said. They did two interviews with Trump on what would he do if he won.
And let's just say there's scary stuff in there. Yeah, dark fantasy. And boy, I would use...
I would use a lot of that, too, to motivate both my base but also swing voters to say, look, this is not a test. This is real. This isn't some liberal whacked-out journalist saying, I've read a website and I can see. This is Donald Trump giving an, first of all, why the hell you would do an interview about this? I have no idea. He did an interview and it goes to it. The other thing is to build off of what both of you two are saying. Murphy, you started this, too.
Usually, as a challenger, you want this race to be entirely about the incumbent. We have a challenger who can't let that happen for ego reasons, right? We know that he's not capable of just making this about Joe Biden. He has to make this about him. And that will help Joe Biden in the end.
Because he is a challenger that has the ability to make the race not about the incumbent, which he should, but about himself. And that's an opening for Joe Biden. Yeah, that is a tool for Biden. The problem is they've just been so bad at fixing Biden on the economy, and inflation is such a problem. Paul and I were working a conference in Cambridge in the U.K.,
Not long ago, we brought the average IQ of people on the stage at the Watson Creek
genome center down by about 780%. But Paul had the greatest analogy for inflation I've ever heard. So I'm going to tee him up again, which is, and I've seen he's looking at me quizzically like, what the hell is Murphy pulling out of thin air here? No, I'm just thinking it probably wasn't original with me. All my best stuff I've stolen probably from Carmel. But when you see groceries go through and your paycheck,
You know, inflation works on both ends, right? So when your wages go up, it's because you're working harder and you're smarter, right? You don't think my wages went up because inflation or my wages went up because of Biden. No, you earned a raise.
When the cost of living goes up, that's because of Biden. So you kind of get it on both ends if you're the incumbent president during inflation. It is. It's a presidency killer. Ask Jimmy Carter. Murphy, I wanted to ask you about this. And I forget exactly where Kennedy was in this CNN poll. I think he was at 16, which I have a really hard time imagining when we get to November that
one-sixth of the country is literally going to vote for a person that has the same chances.
either of the three of us being elected president of the United States in November. I don't know. I feel support building for me. I'll tell you, I had an Uber driver the other day. I'm just saying there could be a surge. I'm waiting for CNN to put me at 23. It's going to take more than a nice tip and a five-star rating to move most of this country to the Murphy aisle, to the Murphy comp. But I thought it was interesting. I think it was a Michigan poll that for the first time showed that
And this, I think, builds on your larger question about the national poll. But the first time showed RFK taking more from Trump than from Biden. Right. So entering entering RFK into that state equation, he's pulling. I forget the race. Just it changed a bit in terms of numbers. My theory and I think a lot of people's theory is if you go back to those national numbers improving numbers,
Some disaffected Democrats have started to come home as a result of what Paul's talking about, what I think what President Trump has told Time magazine. Like there isn't there is not a larger cohort that's like willing to say, yeah, you know what? I need I need to make perfect the enemy of the really good. And so all of a sudden.
Some of these voters, and maybe they're Haley voters, who are willing to participate in the election but not vote for Trump. I think it will be interesting to see. And look, both of these guys clearly playing a lot of base politics right now, right? Yeah. First of all, I think Michigan is the first important state where RFK Jr. looks like he's on the ballot of the Big Seven. Yes. So this is the first moment where...
Nevada, too, I think. I'm not sure on Nevada. So anyway, first of all, red bells should go off. Second, there are going to be a lot of these polls. It takes more from this, takes more from that. First of all, these independent candidacies generally melt in October because people get tired of the summer fling with, I'm going to show politics, I'm going to vote for the crazy person.
And then, so we're going to have all these grand theories of who he takes votes from. The other thing is he always starts out better because of his last name.
And then they meet the real guy, you know, and then then they're like, it's not Frank Sinatra. It's Eldolf Sinatra. And, you know, all of a sudden the records don't sell. So I think it's hard to model the Kennedy thing. If I were Biden, I just wouldn't want him on the ballot because any escape valve where people who can't vote for Trump but don't want to vote for Biden, because for a lot of voters, it's like, all right.
You've been out in the desert for 10 days. You have to drink water. We've got a cup of urine and we've got a cup of cyanide. Pick one. And if somebody shows up with, hi, I've got some rotten pomegranate juice, they'll take that, as unappealing as it might be. So I just don't believe in giving them choices. And I think a lot of this early polling based on half-baked analogy I use is it's like, here, have some flour, sugar, an apple, and a stick of butter and tell me what you think of my apple pie. Well, it's not cooked yet.
So, you know, I'm wary of all this. I think the thing that counts, the material factor is RFK is now on the Michigan ballot and Michigan's one of those seven states that are along with whatever happens in Florida, which could be kind of a polling guard with this abortion war are going to decide the election. And, you know, if I were Biden, I wouldn't like it. All right. Hold that thought. We're going to take a short break and now a word from our sponsors.
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six models. Paul, I'm interested in what you said. And you've been in these races. You've traveled with these candidates. You've helped plan what they're going to go out and kind of try to, if you will, drive the day with if that's possible anymore. But if you're sitting in Wilmington, Delaware, and you're thinking about sort of the next
two to three weeks or next two to three months really of Biden. Walk us through sort of what you, what would, what would you be doing? What would you be telling them? I mean, obviously we know where you'd be doing it, but walk us through sort of what do you think are the real kind of
pinch points here that the president needs to drive and that sting the former president in changing a bit of the electoral calculator. It would be this. The two most important functions of campaign are time and money. So you've got roughly 188 days, I think, today, and you have a lot more money than the other guy.
Even though you have a day job, Mr. President, you have kind of more time because you're not in manacles in a courtroom in Manhattan. You have more time. You don't have armed bailiffs between you and the campaign trail. Right. Right. So you got more time. You got more money. Use it. I would bear. And let's start with the money advertised in those key seven states.
and destroy Trump. Destroy him. Stop bragging about your precious accomplishments. Start introducing the threat. You know, Clinton didn't get credit for the economy until Gingrich shut it down.
the government. Obama didn't get credit for Obamacare until the Republicans tried to repeal it. When you introduce a threat, right, you don't know what you got till it's gone, said Joni Mitchell. So I would advertise really, as Rahm would say, unrelentlessly on the threat that Trump poses. You have him on tape on CNBC saying he wants to cut Medicare and Social Security.
run that tape. He is a threat to your social security. He is a threat to you. What's the most popular thing Biden has done? Lower insulin costs, capping insulin costs and lower prescription drugs. Guess what? Trump wants to repeal them. You want to get credit for it? Introduce the threat. So I would just run threat, threat, threat, threat, threat to your abortion rights. God knows I'd stay away from character and criminality and get to your life. Yeah, not his.
And so I would just bury him and I'd go around the country to using my big, beautiful plane. And I think I do think they're a little too careful about protecting him. The president, the gaffes are baked in. And he, as you know, Robert, you served with him in the White House. Gaffes were always a part of his persona as they were for Reagan and Bush Jr.,
who each won the presidency twice. You know, it's not a career ender to pluff up. Yeah, but the thing is, when you're a gaffe machine, flood the zone with gaffes so they're devalued. They're boring. They happen every day. Big deal. Ford tripped over furniture. Do it all the time. Make it a lovable thing and have good self-deprecating lives, which he's finally starting to do. And I agree. This, if the Dems are smart, they make this the takeaway election.
Americans are not used to the Supreme Court taking away rights. So you get to have a huge fight about that. Well, OK, if taking away your rights is going to be a cornerstone, triple the category. Oh, not only that, take away your insulin, as Paul says. That's a take away or this take away or that. Get it back to middle class economics and fix one thing about Biden.
Stop telling people they're wrong about the economy. We've done the hard work. We're making progress. Job's not done. The question is, who do you want on the steering wheel? Me, because I'm about you, or Trump, because he's about himself? Right. Cost of living is a real issue. And I think they can make the case that Trump will make your cost of living higher. He'll make the cost of your health insurance premiums higher, cost your insulin higher. He's making sweetheart deals with the Saudis on his stupid golf tournaments higher.
that's going to raise the price of gasoline. I mean, just every, everything about cost of living. He's got all the wrong friends. The other thing is unleash the cabinet. He's got a whole generation worth of really good stars there. And they're all hidden in a cloak. I can't tell you if you ran a meter test audience sets where we hook people up to jumper cables and make them watch stuff to see, you know, how it communicates and how to improve it for advertising or whatever on that Gina Raimondo. Yes. My glamor gal, Gina Raimondo is,
On that 60 Minutes profile, the thing would do 85%. And so they got a cabinet Elvis there. Same with Mayor Pete. Same with Mitch Landry. And he has Jennifer Granholm. Granholm. Who ought to be president, but she was born in Canada. She's the most talented person I've ever met. By the way, successful. I mean, I was against her. I'm a Republican, a long history in Michigan. But she was the most successful Dem governor they've had there since Whitmer.
And I hear on the gossip report here, so let me just say this is unverified, but I believe it. She has been heard muttering to friends that it kind of amazes me that nobody in the Biden campaign has ever really called me about what to do in Michigan.
You know, I know they're talking to Gretchen, who's a first rate Paul, but I would not keep a good player on the bench. And the same for the other ones, because Trump doesn't have a bench. His bench is a legal defense team, you know, and they're all they're all working on plea deals. So the last thing I do just tactically, if the election is going to have a big abortion war and in most places that works for Biden and you're dripping in money, set Florida on fire.
Just to pull Trump resources he doesn't have and create a problem. You know, throw a match. Florida is a pro-choice state. And you've got money.
And it's still Trump doesn't have a complete lock on it. He has an advantage. But God, you can create a lot of trouble for him there. And it'll cost him money he can't afford. And remember, for all his multiple choice position of, well, I'm for abortion on demand in Manhattan, but I'm for abortion police locking up doctors in Alabama. I'm you know, let the people decide he's a Florida voter. He's got to vote on that statewide abortion thing.
So anyway, I think there's a great opportunity in Florida to kind of do a dam busters thing and try to flood the roar. Won't win you the war, but it'll be a huge headache for, uh, for the Donald. But just, I want to say one quick thing, all if, um, if you didn't, uh, if somebody didn't already brief you on this every time, uh,
Murphy brings up Gina Raimondo. You need to go find a beer in your house and shotgun it really quick. You see Murphy's already, he's taking a long drink right now on the video. I think he says it sometimes, right? Cheers. America's greatest Democratic governor, Rhode Island. The one thing I would say just before we get off this topic, Murphy, I want to give kudos to the comms team. Not just the bank shot of getting the New York Times is a good one. But
Joe Biden spent an hour this week on the Howard Stern show, which I will say... Yeah, smart. I didn't have it on my bingo card. That's reaching voters that aren't watching the news or are watching the news in a very different way. It's a demographic, to your point, Murphy, that he needs to talk to about inflation. He needs to talk to, to Paul's point, about cost of living, all of those things. Give them great credit.
it. I went into a meeting in early 2009, and the schedulers told me, Alyssa Mastromonica said, we've just added a trip to Los Angeles for the president. And I said, we should do Jay Leno. And Paul, had I suggested invading several countries, the reaction would have been less than suggesting a
And then, you know, you can't do that. You can't, you know, you can't do that. And obviously, you know, the later Obama years took that even further with Sue Ferns and YouTube shows. But kudos to the White House. He did Marc Maron's podcast in his garage in L.A. later. Yeah. It was great. It really blew up Maron, too, and made his thing a big deal it became. Yeah. And I think so. Kudos to them for looking for places where junkies...
that listen to this podcast are getting their news from 48 different outlets. Which they don't need. They have us. Right. It's often wrong factually. Because you guys know how hard it is in a presidential operation to do anything. Because somebody says, oh, that's risky. Howard might start making old jokes. I learned the power of Howard Stern when I was working for Whitman, Christy Whitman running for governor against Florio in 93.
Uh, and we put her on and she kind of had this Mrs. Hathaway reputation, you know, not really true. She's a lot of fun, but, Oh, but she did it. We offered to name a turnpike after him and it, it hit a chord with, with an audience. On the other hand, quick white house story. I've been saving from my memoirs. So it's the Bush reelect George HW, who I loved. And I'm like, uh, on the media team with a bunch of other people and,
and Johnny Carson was going off, you know, finishing his run. So I thought, why doesn't Bush do a walk-on on the last show? So I'd send the idea up. I'd send a feeler out to the Carson people. Of course, they loved the idea. So it went to the White House, you know, the meeting, and it came back, no, we can't do it. It's going to be the biggest TV moment of the year, and you can't, you know, walk on, do a five-minute thank you. No, we don't have a riot message for L.A. because it was post-Rodney King.
And I'm like, no, no, we own a plane the size of a small subdivision. We fly it there.
We land in Burbank. We go to the studio. We do five minutes of love in front of 100 million people. And then we come home. We don't have to go have a riot, you know, but they were looking at me like I'm an alien. I had a bumpy time there and we didn't do it. And I thought it was one of the huge missed opportunities of the campaign. But boy, when I said Jay Leno in Rahm's office, there were audible gasps. Well, can I make a go ahead? Go ahead. Make a strategic point.
It's one of the best books I've read in the last couple of years. Ron Chernow's biography of Grant. Ulysses S. Grant was the greatest military mind in American history. But good militaries around the world still study General Grant. And the thing, I don't know anything about the military. I didn't finish the Boy Scouts. Okay. But what I think I learned about Grant was always on attack. We have no idea how Grant was in a defensive posture because in a four-year war, he never assumed one.
He was chasing, chasing, chasing. He had a pro-action bias. And all of you who are listening, one day you will be where Gibbs and Murph and I have been. You'll be in the White House and you'll suggest something. Go on Howard Stern. Go on Mark Maron. Go on Johnny Carson. Something. And they will say to you, these bad things can happen. And you say, yes, they can do it anyway.
So any enterprise that punishes unsuccessful risk-taking more than it rewards successful risk-taking will fail. Yeah, it's doomed. Yeah, that is the truer words that have never been spoken. So anyway, that's a larger strategic point. Be Ulysses S. Grant. Paralysis by analysis. This happens in that building too much. You know, it's funny. I'm doing some bipartisan political reform stuff, Dems, and I love them.
But the Dem campaign culture is often big circle, a lot of talking. We should focus group the tie, the data. And I'm like, you know, we dumbass Republicans. Here's what we're trained for third grade. Stop thinking, pick up the biggest object you can, grab it and attack. You know, they knock you on the ass, grab a broomstick, sharpen it, attack. You know, it's very simple core programming. And sometimes the Dems are the party of the pearl clutch and the defensive overthinker.
Stay tuned as we pay some bills and you listen to some ads.
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America's dogs are pissed off, guys, and I wonder why. Apparently, there's a puppy slayer on the loose in South Dakota who's trying to...
Puppy slay her way, Governor Kristi Noem, to the Trump vice presidential ticket. I have noticed on social media, and we speak of Cricket, the puppy that apparently got a death sentence from the governor, that she bragged about in her memoirs. By the way, I don't know about you, but I'm the staff guy. You know, well, we read the memoirs, ma'am. What a story of leadership and courage this is. But chapter 12, where you talk about the gravel pit and the puppy, I don't know if we need to really put that in the book.
But she did, got famous for it, and now I can't open social media without seeing a Democratic politician, often somewhat awkwardly, grabbing the schnauzer they adopted that morning with a picture up on their social media. But I think this is one of those street issues that's going to last for a while.
What do you two known dog haters think about this? Somewhere along in that gravel pit, Governor Noem's vice presidential aspirations were executed as well. First of all, it's just hard to read that story. It really is. I mean, it is hard to read that story and think to yourself, this woman who told this story in this book to demonstrate some level of strength.
has just shot a puppy for being a puppy, right? Which is just, it's breathtaking, just to be honest with you. And then secondly, to your point, Murphy, how in the ever-living hell did somebody think writing this down and giving it to the world was a good idea? My accomplishments, chapter eight, cricket, got out of line. I was reminded last night that
Both Noam and Romney, when you go back to the Romney hitching his dog on the roof to vacation. I'm going to defend him on that, but go ahead. Robert, I knew that dog. That dog was a friend of mine. Both of those stories were offered not through some interesting information.
investigative series, but by the two politicians themselves. And I don't want to get into Romney's dog. Let me just give him, because I believe he was slandered by this. There were two great Romney slanders. One was Plouffe's He Has No Core. I think he's put that to rest. And I think if I were David, I'd apologize now in the fullness of time. The second one, so he had a bunch of hyper sons. Remember, there are about 100 Romney's sons.
And in the old school, we all remember they get stuffed in the station wagon, go on trips. And what, what do kids do when stuffed with a, a dog in the back of a car? They play with the dog. There's a point where the dog wants to kill one of the kids, right?
write their memoir, run for governor in South Dakota. So they built this kennel box thing on the roof to protect the dog from the back. And you know, so Romney thought he was talking about family life, but it came off. I totally agree. The PR disaster that Mitt had built a dog jail on the roof with tie downs and duct tape when it was actually rather luxurious and cheap carpet ventilation holes. But, but anyway, so, um,
I take your point, and any dog thing catches immediate fire. But I think, again, the short term is... First of all, how on earth this is a... I mean, let's just say this. If you're in danger of being the vice president and you're a sitting governor of one of the 50 United States, and this...
This is your proof point on making tough decisions. It's your, your whole car. Surely there's a file somewhere of tougher decisions that have larger impacts on people's lives than executing a puppy for being a puppy. Oh, I'm sure there is. There's a missing kitten, by the way, I'm waiting for the sequel. Well, and what, what she will say it was, she is saying, I think is, Oh, all you cosmopolitan city people don't. Well, look,
I have had the pleasure, and it's a rare, wonderful pleasure, of hunting pheasants over dogs in South Dakota. I highly recommend it. It's a beautiful state, great pheasant country.
I know that culture. My son has he trains bird dogs. OK, and she shot that dog because she was a crap dog handler. Yeah, that's it. It's not the dog. That dog was trainable. Every dog is to shoot a dog because you can't control her. You give her away then.
Okay. Worst case, if you're that terrible at handling dogs, I mean, it is as a hunter, it is so appalling that someone would shoot a bird dog because they, they, they were, they were, you know, now the bird dog also killed a bunch of chickens, which they'll do if you don't train them. Exactly. Anyway, it's just, it really is upsetting and appalling. And don't let her America, don't let governor know con you into thinking that somehow you
Your love for your dog means that you're some kind of urban cosmopolitan sophisticate who doesn't understand rural life. It is Governor Noem who doesn't respect and understand hunting life.
Well said, my friend. Well said. This is, you can't say something right about South Dakota. The greatest, I lost it. The greatest tourism promotion slogan ever. I go up there and I go to Mitchell, South Dakota, where there's a corn palace. And by the way, home of George McGovern, war hero. Way out, we're hunting way out in the middle of nowhere. But in Mitchell, there's a little tourist shop.
And I got the coffee cup with a big rooster peasant on it, big, beautiful peasant. And it says, South Dakota, big cock country. Without irony. That's how they refer to their rooster peasant. Of course not. It's a wonderful state. I've worked there. I love South Dakota. Yeah, I did a Senate race there. Got somebody reelected, the great Larry Pressler.
on the instructions of Senator Dole. This is your year. You do it. But I fell in love with South Dakota. It is a beautiful state and wonderful people. And damn it, they're dog lovers and they know how to handle their hounds. Murphy, I'm just going to add, I worked one of my first races was Fritz Hollings. And he once, a young operative walked into the office with some really fancy, very nice brown shoes. And Fritz Hollings did not, he never missed an opportunity.
to find some reason to poke at you and to, to sort of Paul's point, he, all of a sudden now he was the, he was the, he was the big dog in the room. And, uh, friend of mine walked in in these fancy shoes and Fred Sollings went, Ooh, you got you some Larry Presler shoes, don't you? Yeah.
Well, that was the love and affection Larry had among his colleagues. There you go. We're out of time for the mailbag this week. It's my fault. I got to go rush and get a plane, but we're trying to fit an extra one or two in next week. You can also do more of this because we like to hear your voices out there. You can even use the prison pay phone and we will pay the reverse charges. Especially if you're a former president.
Right. No, yes, we will have a 1-800-JALBIRD line for you, Mr. President. Happy to get a question for you. But bottom line, the number is so hard to remember because we put Axelrod in charge of it. Let's just say technology and, you know, 000 numbers, not his forte. Call the number. Give us a question. Not forever. 30 seconds. Use your name. But we love hearing your voices.
And here's the number. 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. Paul Begala, thank you for your wit and your wisdom. I want to say this. I hope there's some listening out there among those planning these campaigns.
to what you talked about in terms of getting Biden out there and punching hard. I know he's doing a bunch of it. I know we'd all love to see more of it. Murphy, travel safe, and here's hoping that TSA doesn't make you take those Larry Pressler shoes off to get through the metal detector, my friend. My fancy duds, absolutely. All right, guys, great to have you up there. Pauly Gibbs, as always, and Hacker Roos, we'll be back next week. ♪
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