The Trap (with David Plouffe)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Because they want to get him good and strong. So a little before debate time, he gets a shot in the ass. They want to strengthen him up. So he comes out. He'll come out. Okay. Okay.

I say he'll come out all jacked up, right? All jacked up. So there you have it, Murphy, Shecky Trump warming up for the debate.

I'm for the shot in the ass. If Dr. Landry's still around, I say wake him up and get live on everything out of Biden that can possibly be because we're fighting evil here. And by the way, I think Trump gets a daily shot in the ass of some sort of orange dye. I mean, he is in a glass house as far as that sort of stuff is concerned. But

What a debate. And to explain it to us, an old compadre of yours, David, you want to introduce him? Yes, I do, because he is my old partner and the greatest campaign manager of our generation. Actually, my generation is a little older than your generations. But David Plouffe, David.

who is also the co-host of, is it still called The Campaign Manager? It is, yes. The Campaign Manager podcast with Kellyanne Conway. So he's ready for sharp repartee.

But, Plouffe, the thing that is so hilarious is the degree to which Republicans are scrambling around now after spending five years telling people that Biden was old, decrepit, incompetent, couldn't tie his own shoes and so on. And now he's a debate behemoth. He's going to come in all doped up and, you know, ready for bear. I heard Doug Burgum, the

the campaigning for vice president, Doug Burgum on CNN this weekend saying, you know, he's been debating since the Nixon and, you know, he's been in all these national debate and, you know, he's going to be really, really good. So Murphy, this is a head spinning turn. It turns out that Biden is is a behemoth out there astride the debate.

Yeah, I, you know, my, my navigation compass in politics doesn't head to the Doug Burgum high lantern very often because it clearly is not in a fixed position. This guy's taking Faust pills, anything to VBP. Uh,

But they're all doing it. That's the talking point. Yeah, well, of course. You know, it is the venerable sport of saying, well, the other guy's Pericles, and I'll just be lucky to find the hall. But they're both working with limited debating skills here. Let's just say this is kind of a fair fight. They're both old.

Neither of them are in their prime as communicators. But sure, the Trump people are trying to build the Biden thing up. I think this debate is kind of spin proof.

Because it's going to be so self-evident. It's also, there's no crazy Roman circus audience. That is a big factor. It's going to be the camera on both of them, naked on a rock, as I said last week, to fill up your dream journal. And I think all the spin won't matter in the end, you know? The naked on the rock thing is disturbing. I don't want to think about it. Under the lights. Plouffe, how much is this going to mean?

You know, there are people who say, well, it's a June debate. There's plenty of time and so on. But there are negative narratives about both these guys out there that they need to defeat in this debate, starting with the president. Well, Axe, you and I know now we did go five and one. The one loss was pretty, pretty bad. Yes.

But presidential campaigns have always mattered. They don't matter much for Senate anymore, governor, mayor. They matter a lot. And so I agree with Murphy. This one's been through. First of all, listen, Trump and the Republicans two weeks ago were doing the opposite of what they're doing now. They were saying Biden won't be able to stand. He's horrible. Right. That was really stupid. So now they're trying to do this drug thing.

By the way, they had a pretty big needle that would have to, you know, Murphy, penetrate Trump's posterior every week. It's a veterinary supply house that's volunteered to help. But I think it's been proof because, A, you're going to have a lot of both original audience and everyone who doesn't watch it will see it on social media within a few hours, right? So you're going to see it, number one. And number two, we know from the polling out there, voters are being asked, like, their expectations and their expectations for Biden are really low.

So what's fascinating to me, Axe, is they both have Biden's challenge here is doable because he just needs to be better, more aggressive, more with it, more concise than people are expecting to have the stamina. Trump, on the other hand, I don't think he's capable of doing this. If he basically just said, hey, inflation is too high, the border is out of control and here's what I'm going to do about it. Like.

you know, he would pass a threshold. I don't think he's capable of doing that. So, but this is an enormously important debate because right now the reason, and listen, the New York times came out today. We're talking on Tuesday with their first of what's going to be a daily, you know, model, uh, in the battleground States and Trump's winning all of them.

Now those are polls. It's a model, but I think that's where the race stands. Biden can win this race, but he won't do it unless some healthy percentage of people right now who say they're concerned about his vitality and age get over that. And this is his best opportunity to, it's his best. I don't want to say it's his last because we have one more debate, but I think this is by far as maybe, yeah, maybe exactly. We shouldn't count on it. Yeah. David or plop. I'm going to switch the pluff and X here. Cause we got two Davids. You make the, you make the key point. The,

The dependent veritable in this race isn't Trump. You can make him worse, but he's already in trouble. People know he's a horrible orangutan. That is that's done. It's the Biden number. Can Biden convince people he's not a doddering old guy who doesn't get it on the economy? And if Biden can move the Biden needle, he's going to do great. If Biden goes off on a wander about the economy is better than you think. I brought a few statistics here. Get your pens out at home. Write them down.

And Trump gets the Dr. Landry shot and can try to just

hammer a few things and I agree with that's going to be hard. Then it'll be Trump's night. I think he would have need a different cocktail. I mean, if you were, if you guys were briefing, if you guys were coaching Trump, you'd probably be, you'd be looking at those numbers and their own numbers and you'd be saying, you know what? We can win this freaking thing. And all you have to do is behave like a human being. All you have to do is not do what you did in that first debate and

four years ago where you scared the hell out of everybody and acted like a petulant school child, you know, and that's what's standing between you and really taking a big step forward here. Mike Tyson said, you know, everybody has a plan until they're punched in the face. The question is when he gets a provocative question or when Biden says something that sticks in his craw, which Biden will,

Does he does he keep his shit together? Right. And your Tyson quote, so important. The three of us have prepared a lot of people for debates. And let's say let's say that Trump agrees with that strategy and his team does. Let's say that's what they're practicing.

These are human beings and they get on stage and you don't know where the hell the debate's going to go. And I think it's highly unlikely, even if Trump agrees, he's going to be more docile. Trump, he's going to be more issue focused. Trump, he's going to just hammer the border, hammer immigration. You know, once Biden gets under his cross, I know that. And I think with Biden, I think, Mike, there's two things Biden has to accomplish. One is, you know, he's got to surprise people, I think, a little bit with his vitality. If he enters and leaves under his own power.

That is the bar is so low. I don't think it's enough, but, you know, just staying on his feet and being engaged for 90 minutes will be will be helpful. Hard. But but the other thing and I'm sure the Biden team are are counseling.

aim, Mike, not to make the mistake you talked about, which is get into stat land and tell people who don't think the economy is good, but not to defend your record. And this is right. Right, right. Yeah. It's very hard, particularly grumpy old Irish incumbent. Pluff and pluff knows this. We,

spent i literally we we had the date of the first debate in 2012 circled in red because we knew the history of presidents in the first debates they haven't debated they're not used to people being in their grill they know too much and they're inclined to defend their record rather than deliver message and go on the attack and set up a contrast because you don't want even if even an

You know, it's very rare when you want the election to be a referendum on you. You want to turn it into a contrast. Biden's inclination is to want to defend his record. He wants to extol his record. And the question is, can he park all of that and just land his lines that set up a contrast? No.

I don't think he can. You know, you're right. But I think, look, I think this is going to disintegrate quickly because they're going to get under each other's skin. Is it about the podcast or the debate? Well, we've already disintegrated here. It's our tactic. But no, Trump's going to say, well, Biden's going to poke Trump and Trump's going to go right to Hunter Biden. How's your jailbird son doing?

And then Biden's going to get pissed and it's going to be this mano a mano thing. It's going to kind of be like the old Adam Sandler, Bob Barker golf fight. You know, I was just thinking that, you know, except to Bob Barker's.

And it is going to, I mean, I hope it doesn't for Biden's sake, but I think they both have big red buttons on their forehead. And, you know, it's not hard to get under Biden's skin. And Biden's been probably waiting years to get his verbal hands on Trump. And Trump's just a...

you know, a blowhard who's good at poking and Trump will say anything. So I think it's going to be a train wreck on that getting under Biden's skin thing. You know, I've been of the mind that if I'm Trump, I'm not going to attack anybody.

him on the there is a there is an attack which i'll mention in a second on hunter biden that is undoubtedly coming but on this gun conviction the republicans have been reluctant to attack because they don't like the gun law but i could see him turning to biden saying i can't that was a bullshit and conviction i can't believe you wouldn't pardon your own kid you're not gonna help your son who's been in this case not in the other case but in this case you know

treated what i think is even unfairly you wouldn't do that i just don't understand that i think he will but handled properly that is a huge moment it is if he does handle it right i thought you'd ask me to pardon you right uh to say listen it's my son i love him dearly but i trust the justice department i trust the rule of law i'm not gonna part i mean to me i'm not sure that i would i'm not

sure that I would go there at all. I think I would say, I would say, listen, man, I love my son and you know, you'd stay out of my relationship with my son, but you want to talk about pardons. Let's talk about your promise to pardon the hundreds and hundreds of people who invaded the Capitol. Let's talk about your promise to pardon yourself. Uh,

Or to vacate your own cases. I'll worry about my family, but people should worry about their democracy. I think this is all three-dimensional chess for these guys. But yeah, I think maybe Biden will be adroit at that pivot stuff. I think they're going to tell him to be Mount Rushmore.

which is solid, full speed ahead. I'm on your side. He's on his side. And not try any pirouettes, because I don't know if the Biden toolbox has that. Yeah. Well, you're right that I think one of the goals here has to keep the playlist short. This can't be like a complex series of maneuvers. You've got to give him a theme. And so let's talk about, I think they're actually circling around the right one, which is

I'm out there fighting for you and fighting for your future. He's fighting every day for himself, and he's consumed by his past and vengeance and retribution. How's that going to help your life? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I have a plan for the middle class. He has an enemies list. Yes, yeah, Murphy, you ought to do this for a living. Yeah, well, when you look at the list of attribute polling and issue polling, it's kind of all red for Biden except for

Who will fight for people like you? Biden still has an example there. And so I think you've got to basically lean into that and paint the picture of, you know, acts. This is one of the things we did back in 12 and Romney was twisted in knots because of how he won the primary. But we were going to say what's not going to help us recover more economically is to fight about health care.

right? He wants to revisit the Affordable Care Act, Obamacare that was built on Romneycare. So for Biden to paint that picture, which is, you know, I've been focused on rounding up Republican votes to, you know, build roads and bridges and chips. He's going to be focused on rounding up Democrats to put them in jail and investigate. They're not going to help you. Like, I actually think that he can profit from

that. But Mike, I agree with you. I mean, he's not going to do like a triple axel, but there has to be a few moments where he tangles with Trump. He would win the race if he could. I brought my skates tonight. That would really start the shot in the ass thing. But basically, Biden has to be precise. Trump doesn't have to be. That's not his debating style. Like whether it's Roe v. Wade, whether it's this exchange with Hunter, whether it's painting the picture about Trump's not going to be focused on your problems.

It's got to be precise. It's got to be slowed down. It's got to land because both were the original audience. But let's not forget, there's going to be a whole bunch of people critical of this election that aren't going to watch the debate, but we'll see clips.

And you got to make sure you have enough of those, right? You just have to. I mean, I totally agree with this because Trump's story is mad spray. Biden's got to nail a few things. But what the thing David and I were, all of us were talking about the mode of contrast, that also gives Biden a way to do something he hasn't done that he has to do badly, which is what do you get in a second term? Right now, Biden's selling his offer. His offer is you don't get Trump.

Right. Well, that's not enough. Right. You know, because Trump equals better economy. It's also you look at a guy part of the antidote to an 81 year old guy is a guy who's talking about the future and not just the past. And so absolutely, absolutely. He has to do that. Plus, I want to ask you, you do work in the social media industry. It seems to me that one of the.

here is that the people who you most need to reach who are hanging out there in this election probably aren't going to be watching this debate. They're less engaged. They don't get their information from newscasts and traditional news outlets.

sources. And they'll probably get a lot of it on TikTok, on Instagram, on YouTube. And so, like, I guess one of the interesting things to watch is what's getting clipped and sent out there and going viral, even during the debate and after the debate. This is key. Now, listen, I think there will be some younger voters that tune in and they'll probably tune out because it's going to be pretty hard to watch. But what we do... Unless he does a triple axel.

Right. There will be probably tens of millions of people who are going to be decisive in this election that are only going to experience the debate in 48 hours afterwards. So here's what we know will go viral is if one of them has a senior moment, one of them makes a mistake. We know that.

The campaigns have control about what they're going to be pushing through these platforms, right? So if they think they have a good moment, you know, they can put money behind it, not on TikTok, but the other, you know, platforms allow advertising. So that is going to be kind of the game within the game, which is, yes, there's how did the debate go? And as you guys know, both campaigns are going to have, you know,

swing voters sitting there with dials and assessing every word that these guys say. So the campaigns have a pretty good sense for people to watch the debate, but how people witness it afterwards. So there's two things. There's going to be those clips. And then as you guys know, historically, sometimes the, the, the meme or the story coming out on debate night shifts over time.

And so there is a battle to see what was the debate about, not just Thursday night, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. And so this is absolutely essential. And I think that, you know, the Biden campaign, I think, is being very sophisticated about YouTube, about Instagram, which is great. Trump is obviously on TikTok himself. He's got seven million people. So I think that's something I'm going to watch carefully is what is the Trump team doing on TikTok? Because they have the ability to reach a bigger audience right now. And more friends in China.

You know, an old trick I used to do a lot. You're offending Trump because he is a consultant over there. Yeah, useful idiot, as Vladimir Ilyich used to say. An old trick I used to do a lot in statewide debates when it counted was the next three

Three days, I would buy 100 radio spots. I mean, a massive buy. And I would cut up voices on the street thing the night after the debate. Who won the debate? Oh, God, he was crazy. I couldn't believe it. That guy's going to raise my tax. It's the worst. Always worked. Now, the modern version of that is flood tic-tac with people reacting.

Right. Echoing what you want. And I hope the Biden guys are on top of that because you're right. This thing is a lump of clay for, you know, 48 to 72 hours. Well, Mike, the radio thing's brilliant. I think what you want is so what you can control, you control. You've got influencers that you're talking to pushing something. But then what you really hope is organically a bunch of young people on TikTok and YouTube say, hey,

you know what? He was better than I thought. That's all they have to say. Then you amplify the hell out of them. Right. That's all you have to say. And I believe, Plouffe, that one of the things both campaigns are doing is activating their network of influencers who will go out and say those things. I mean, there's a very sophisticated game going on underneath. You know, all of us troglodytes from a different century are going to be analyzing the full debate

And it'll be important. I mean, there's no doubt about it because there will be a lot of echoes of it. But this game within the game is going to be really, really important. The other thing I think the Biden people, and it'll be hard with Biden, the nonverbal is important because that's what feeds the image moments that then get amplified and re-edited in social media. I mean, Biden's got a smile. If Biden looks like he's having a good time, that is worth a lot.

Because Trump always is dour and pissed off and looks constipated. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

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That's L-U-M-E-N dot M-E slash hacks. And if you can't remember that, you've got metabolism problems and you need a Lumen. So go to L-U-M-E-N dot M-E slash hacks for 15% off your purchase. Thank you, Lumen, for sponsoring this episode. Mike, I went back and watched the two debates from last time, and they were pretty striking. First of all, it was striking.

Because I think in retrospect, Biden did really well in those debates. I mean, he counterpunched. He was confident. He knew when to pivot to camera and talk to the American people. He knew when to give Trump a big blow-off line. You know, he really held his own in those debates. If he could do anything like that in these debates, it's going to go really well. But it's also the trap.

Because they're going to compare him this time to the time. Ooh, what happened to the old Biden? This is the new old can't do it Biden. He does not look exactly like he looked four years ago. He doesn't speak exactly like he spoke four years ago. This is a problem. But to your point about one of the things he did very well was, you know, he laughed, he smiled when Trump was outrageous and shook his head. I mean, he had all those moves down and I'm sure they were working on him

and probably showing him that tape. It's risky, but I'd be tempted to make the first TikTok video

coach ploy in the history of the world, which is just smile and do the old hand circle by the year thing. Because it would own TikTok, a cut against Trump. Well, maybe they could do that with an AI Biden. They probably should. That's true. I think that's brilliant, Murphy. That is brilliant. I mean, it would go forever. And it's easy to do. I think Biden could do it. Easy to do. I mean, the visual point is to him, particularly in this format, which is just a news studio. But I think Axe

you know, this is the added degree of difficulty for Biden. Cause I, I also watched the debates and I was reminded, you know, that he was strong. I actually think the other moment when he told Trump that we, you just shut up, man. Like that was a good moment. Not about policy, by the way, showing strength. And he also basically was saying what the American people think. Right, right. But he does look a lot different. He sounds different. And there's nothing you can do about that. You just got to price that into the equation that, that basically getting enough people to say, okay,

You know, he he didn't make a mistake or he was stronger than I thought, or he had a few good lines. I love your crazy visual, Murphy, but but that's what you want. And the bar is so exceedingly low. Right. Yeah. If Biden gets a great moment off, it'll be rocket fuel for him. Yes, but it is also 90 minutes. And the thing is, even if the audience dwindles a little bit, if you have a shitty moment in the last five minutes, that can dominate the after game.

And so you've got to run through the tape here in a way. But I think the way you've got to think about these debates is, okay, so let's say Trump attacks Biden on whatever the issue is, and Biden's then going to respond for two minutes. It's got to be 10 seconds of defense.

that's not true. Here's what I did. Then it's got to be like almost all the rest contrast. Then to your point, Axe, which is what I want to do in my next term is focus on X, Y, and Z. The formula is not hard. And the contrast, and the contrast, you know, you can pick any issue and there's a good contrast to be struck. And even on those issues of vulnerability, even on those issues of vulnerability, like immigration, he should turn very quickly to the fact that

We helped negotiate the toughest...

ever on border security. And we did it with the most conservative member of the Senate. And this guy killed it. And he was very honest about it. And him being honest is something to note. He was very honest about it. And he said, I don't want that because Biden will get credit. Let's wait and we'll deal with it later. No, no. I totally agree with this. If he can do it. Here's the one. If I, you know, if the great God of debate prep landed in his flying saucer and said, all right.

You get one thing, Murphy. I would say we got... Biden's got to have... Biden is going to hear...

10 times in this debate. Just remember, the economy was better when I was president. Stuff cost less. Now it costs more. How are you four years ago? Were you better off? It's going to hear that 100 times. And every time that's going to bait Biden to say, well, I just brought my statistics along. And I know we talked about this for a minute, but Biden needs welded into his head a pivot out of that or they're going to bait him into bad Biden. Yeah.

That's the one thing I think if they can avoid, that'll get them halfway there. Well, and I think you guys mentioned the litany of stuff that he can turn to, you know, health care, pharmaceutical prices, you know. Insulin, yeah. You know, there's a bunch of stuff he can turn to where Trump has signaled he wants to repeal the bill that lowered the insulin. He wants to destroy the Affordable Care Act.

You know, he wants to hand to the he said to the oil industry, give me a billion dollars. You can write your own rules. How's that going to work for you? You know, I mean, he can he can. There's a litany of stuff that he can go to and every one should be punctuated by. Just remember, he's out for himself. OK, I'm fighting for you. You know, I may not land it every time.

But you know that I'm thinking about the guy in Scranton and Claymont, and he's thinking about the guy in Mar-a-Lago. Here's one for you guys. I think, again, it might be a bit adroit for the toolbox, but Trump's also going to do world in disarray. We're not respected. We're weak and everything. I think there's a good flip for Biden in that, which is it is a dangerous world. You can see it every day on the news.

But if you enter the Oval, we're going to fight our friends and suck up to our enemies. It's going to be more dangerous chaos in the world. Your idea of strength is blowing up NATO, our strongest allies. Your idea of strength is sucking up to Vladimir Putin and the murdering genocidal dictator North Korea, who's your love bro. Yada, yada, yada. And try to kind of double down on the fact people think the world's going to hell to raise the stakes with Trump.

or too tricky because I think he needs an answer on that other than defensiveness of, well, actually we have a nine-point plan and Tony Blinken's a great guy and a million air miles.

In watching that debate, particularly the beginning, I don't know whether it was the first or second debate, but Trump, it was a second debate, you know, and COVID came up right away. And Trump was like, well, you know, the whole world is dealing with this, not just us. And we're dealing with it better than the rest of the world. And we're on the way back and this and that. And honestly, it sounded like Biden's answers on inflation. And it just it was bad for Trump.

you know, because he did. He wasn't hooking up with the reality that people were living. If I were if I were Biden's folks, I'd show them that answer from Trump and say he was the incumbent. This is how he handled the situation. And it actually hurt him. So you don't want to do that when it comes to the economy. You want to go on the you want to go on the pivot and go on the attack or on these other issues, as you point out.

point out Murphy. Yeah. I mean, he's just, this is such a big test for Biden, whether he can resist that impulse to go forth, to take the bait and, uh, try and, uh,

And and persuade people of that, that, you know, of things that they don't believe. Listen, on this issue, one exchange they had last time that I thought was promising for Biden to raise here was on the issue of abortion. Yeah, I don't know you guys, because Trump stood up there and said, you know, Biden said Roe v. Wade is on the ballot. Trump said, I don't know what you're talking about.

You don't even know how these judges are going to vote and this and that. And so now I don't know, you know, it's not good. And it's like, what an opportunity to say he stood on this stage four years ago and he lied to you.

He lied to you. And where are we now? And then just go to town on, you know, all these horrible. This is a place where statistics help about what's happened as a result of that. And and he said, and rest assured, whatever he says here, he's going to go with his base because he does what's good for Donald Trump, not for the women. Let me pitch something about this. Donald, you're a coward on abortion.

You're for any state's position because you're afraid to take one. What are you going to do in Florida where you vote? You're for or against? I'll tell you where I am. I'm going to defend boom, boom. I think you're a gutless coward and you're acting like a politician. You're a weathervane. Get some backbone, pal. Take a side. What are you afraid of? That's good.

Yeah, but this Roe v. Wade moment is key and it will require precision. Like Biden will have to say, you know what you ought to say in the first debate on this date in 2020, you said this, you lied. Now you're saying your proudest accomplishment is getting rid of Roe v. Wade. You're probably going to have two more Supreme Court justices, whoever wins. Let's talk about IVF. Let's talk about contraception. Let's talk about all the hells that have been done.

So I think Murphy, you can either go, he's a coward and he'll tell you what you want to hear, or you try and lay this, you know, all on him. I'd probably vote for the latter, but this is a key moment. Like, Axe, I remember the first debate. I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. No, they're not. They're not. Because, you know...

You open with you're a coward on abortion, you won't take a stand, I dare you, and then you go to the second punch is everything else. So this is one where if this moment doesn't happen and if it's not a dominant moment for Biden, it's a huge missed opportunity. It's their best bullet. It's their wooden stake. Right.

This brings me to a different point. I want to come back to a moment that Biden had, but since you brought this up, you know, we act like there are two guys on the stage. There are four people there. There are two moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, and the guys on the stage. They are not potted plants in this deal.

What they ask and how they ask it will also have something to do to say about this debate. And I want to just say as a disclaimer, I have no idea what they're going to ask or what they're going to say. I mean, we're trying to divine. If you're prepping for the debate, you're looking at everything they've said and every question they've asked for the last.

you know, two years and you're trying to divine where they're going to go. But for sure, they're going to ask an abortion question. For sure, they're going to ask that. For sure, they're going to ask. I mean, I'd be surprised if they didn't ask. Do you think the last election is, you know, was Joe, you know, I or some some version of that. But they are going to ask questions that are provocative and

And, you know, so, yes, it's on Biden to make sure these moments happen. Some of them, if they don't happen, will be a failure of moderation. I guess since I work for CNN, I shouldn't say that. But a failure of moderation is as well as a failure on the part of any one candidate. Well, but any candidate has to say you go into the debate.

And X, you know, we kind of screwed this up in the first debate in 2012. Well, like Romney's 47 percent comment didn't come up in a question, you know, but our guy didn't unleash that. So every both Trump and Biden need to have three to five things, no matter what the moderators ask. Say, I got to get I got to get it. Absolutely. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

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We should talk about that 2012 thing, Murphy. This is a nightmare that we lived together. I mean, um, it was, you know, there were breaking through that. We mentioned it earlier, but breaking through that sort of incumbent impulse to not really, it's really, really hard. And, you know, and, you know, he knew in some way that he, he knew going in member pluff and I went into the,

locker room beforehand to give him the old attaboy before the debate. And he said, let's just get this over with and get out of here. And we left the locker room and we said, we are going to get our asses kicked in this debate. And it was a total tip off. But I mentioned this before, this thing that there was a moment that was striking to me in the second debate that is going to come back for sure. This will be one of Trump's things.

in which Biden heatedly, heatedly denied this Hunter laptop story, that this was Hunter's laptop and all of that. And he leaned on the 50 intelligence people who said this is probably a Russian scam and stuff.

Obviously, it was Hunter's laptop, and now Hunter is dealing with the consequences of it. Doug Burgum mentioned that on Sunday. I don't think he thought of that on his own. Maybe they're just trying to get into Biden's head, and they're not going to go there. My guess is he goes there.

For sure. I would be surprised if he doesn't. Now, I don't know if the country cares because it's a complicated eight-dimensional chess, but it could, again, trigger a back-and-forth squabbling old guy fight and burn up the clock, which is an opportunity cost to the stuff you want to do if you're Biden.

Great point, Mike. But listen, David, I think if that comes up, I think probably the best you do is just say, listen, my son, my son, who I love dearly, has already been convicted on separate, you know, issue. He's being investigated. And, you know, I respect the rule of law, unlike you. Like, I think it is.

actually is a could be really powerful that's why that that would be the thing to think about i would almost welcome it in playing that card but i'm not sure how much now trump's team's probably saying a little chess you know trump is more of a checkers player that may being too kind but i actually think this exchange because while murphy i agree 80 of this or maybe 90 of this is just improving biden's standing

you do want to find those opportunities to remind people that you don't want to sign up for the Trump thing again. Right. And, and I think the way Biden has responded to his son versus the way Trump's responded to his own stuff, you know, there's a chasm there. Yeah, no, I agree with that. I agree. Yeah. You know, the reason, the reason Trump may go there is part of, I mean, this whole Biden crime family stuff that the house has propagated that,

you know, like, you know, hundreds, a hundred some odd inspector Clouseau's wandering around looking for clues that never show up.

But the reason they're doing it is because in Trump, one of Trump's go to tactics is to say everybody else is guilty of what he's being accused of. So he has to make Biden out to be corrupt. This you know, this this thing, Crooked Joe is so like he had Sleepy Joe last time, which, you know, is.

Maybe unfair, but probably one that would land a little here. Crooked Joe just doesn't really compute. No, it lands with a thud. It's not Trump's best work. And it may land with some portion of the base, but Trump does it because he wants to say, you know, his whole...

His whole message in some ways is, you know, the world is corrupt and messy and, you know, we all swim in the same swamp. I'm just honest about it. So the prep move is they ought to unveil a new one in a retort for Biden. One phrase, needy Donald, cowardly Donald, something.

And so the shift of the attention goes from the one that's kind of a flat joke we've heard a thousand times to the new interesting one that lights Trump on fire. I like going at him as coward anytime on any topic because it goes right for his strength. And I think he's vulnerable on that because deep down Trump knows he's totally a fraud.

So they ought to have something really tight for that. So Trump's message is everything's out of control. He's not in command. Four years. I'm strong. Four years, yeah. Put me back in the game. I will fix everything. And the four things that he's going to...

use are immigration, inflation, you know, crime in the cities. Not respected, the world on fire. And the wars, the wars, the wars, the wars. So Biden has to be ready to counterpunch on every single one of those. Like, you know, the crime thing is interesting because

In some ways, it's a bunch of bullshit. I mean, crime is down 18 percent. Crime was higher when Trump was president than now. Trump will say that's that's bullshit. Everybody knows that.

what's going on. And it's true that after the, during the pandemic and after crime in the cities, homicides have gone down, but there are, there are crimes that are more prevalent that are irritating to people, you know, you know, strong arm burglaries and carjackings and things like that. So they've created a, a kind of, you know, aura of that, that Trump is, is taking advantage of.

what do you think Biden does there? Well, first you go for the joke. I know 34 crimes that have been recently solved. And then you go into your stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Listen, I actually think, you know, first of all, I'd say, listen,

you know, there was a crime wave when you were president, Donald Trump, 2020 massive crime wave. Okay. It's come down, but let me be clear. You know, you could say one in the white house and one out of the way. Right. But I'd also like Biden. This is a strength of his. It wasn't 20. And I think he should underscore, which is I'm not a defund the police Democrat. I believe in investing in law enforcement, you know, which he believes that. Yes. And so I think you don't want to run a victory lap. You want to say crimes down. It was way up under you, but listen, any crimes too much. And this is what we got to do. Like,

I think that this is one where of all the issues you mentioned, David, I think the trickiest one is immigration, where I'm sorry, not immigration, because I think he's got a really strong retort about what he's done in the border. It's inflation. And actually, I have a question for you guys, because you've seen a bunch of studies from economists over the last couple of days saying Trump's policies.

will devastate the economy. But I'm not, I think that gets into stat land. No, I don't want to go there. Yeah. I wouldn't go there. I would go to the, let me tell you something. Uh, yeah, people are struggling with and have been through, uh, through the pandemic started with him, have been, uh,

struggling with higher costs. The question is, who's going to fight every day to try and bring them down? On health care, you know, and then you go to on pharmaceuticals and then you go to that. But I think a big one that he needs to highlight here is the tax cut.

He said, look, you know, I want to give a tax cut to parents for child care, or I want to give a child care tax credit. He wants to make permanent his $2 trillion tax cut for millionaires and billionaires. It's really a question of what you think is important. I know. Well...

We're handicapped here because you are a billionaire, but you have to think about it from the standpoint of the average person. No, no, class warfare. Come on. That's what the donkey's screaming on the DNC logo. But you're right. It gives them a pivot. I think you ought to do a lot of promises from Donald here. But read the fine print. You know what you get. You get the same old craziness. You get no more insulin money. Your grandmother gets screwed. Meanwhile, every billionaire in town, all his buddies get, you know,

and then you go into your classwork or stuff. But fine print, simple phrases like that at the top to organize it, I think will be important for Biden. Because otherwise, he's like Trump. It's a mishmash of stuff. And whoever is not the mishmash communicator will do well, I think, in this debate. I mean, I think the difference between having a passable debate for Biden and having a good debate for Biden is whether at the end of this debate there is a discernible message.

Yeah. And second term, what do you get? Yeah. Yeah. What's the contrast? What's the choice? Yes. I mean, and so all of these pivots, I'm sure. Listen, Ron Klain has done more debate prep than anybody in the Democratic Party. He lived through that horrible first debate with us in 2012. So he knows the traps. He's he's, you know, Biden trusts him.

And I've got to believe he is working on this. Remember the difference, Plouffe, between the first and second debate? Ultimately, I mean, we had a few hiccups after the first debate when, you know, Obama was kind of adjusting his approach to the debate. But at the end of it,

In the last day or in the last day, he went off and wrote down, you know, his the way he wanted to answer the most likely 14 questions on one sheet of paper. It was 14 answers front and back.

And he carried that sheet with him until we got to the debate. And they were lines. They were arguments. They weren't they weren't like treatises on policy. And he he understood what he needed to do. Biden needs that. He needs to have his he needs to know how he's going to, you know,

And what are the pivot lines on each of these things? What are his imperatives? And at the end of the day, what is he driving? What is the message that he is driving here? And, you know. Well, yeah, David, listen, we're not there. But my assumption is we know a lot of the people who are helping Biden prepare that they know this. This is they want to avoid the traps. And so that's what makes these debates so fascinating is it's all in Joe Biden. And of course, Joe Biden has to know

These are the most important 90 minutes of his long political life and a pretty important 90 minutes in American history. Like,

So he has to deliver here, right? Yeah, because they bet all the chips. No president's ever pulled this move because they need the jumpstart. They need it. And it's either going to work or it's going to blow them up on the pad. And Axe and I have argued about this. Let me just go to that scenario. Yeah, but that's what I wanted to do, too. Let's do the day after, version one and two. What do you do if you're Biden? Yeah, say Biden does not do what we suggest he might and he should do.

and just has a bad night. What if he does have a senior moment or gets, you know, overly defensive or whatever? I mean, we don't have to paint a picture. You know what a bad night looks like. Well, this could be the bad night to end all bad nights. There's potential. I mean, there's chatter in the Democratic Party that I have dismissed because

Joe Biden is the nominee of the Democratic Party. I mean, it's not this isn't 68. This isn't the conventions don't nominate people. Yeah, I agree with all this. We've talked about it before. But if it's a really bad night, the pressure on Joe and Jill, because they're the only ones who can change the trajectory, will not be small. I don't believe. Yeah. So, Plouffe, play it out. It's a horrifying prospect. But but if he has a bad night.

Not, you know, so by the way, passable to me is not good enough in this race. He needs to have a good night, but passable status quo, not good, but you know, we move on a bad night. I think a couple of things, we will see prominent democratic voices probably starting off the record.

Maybe some on the record saying we need to revisit this. There'll be calls on the convention. The Biden campaign will say, of course not. We've got another opportunity September 10th. By the way, if I were the Trump campaign, I'd say I'm not doing it. We've seen all we need to say. Right, right. Biden can't handle this. So then you've lost. Because by the way, the conventions, Trump's convention matters more because he'll have his new VP. But, you know, it's mostly partisans that consume the convention. There are only two big moments that we know of left, these two debates. That's it.

And if you squander this one in a race, you're, you know, behind in. And my guess is Trump pulls the carpet out on the other one. You're in deep trouble. So I listen, if he has a moment where he kind of wanders, where he's not making any sense, he has issues with stamina, you know, and I think we'll get a sense how voters respond to it. And they're worried about it if their concerns aren't assuaged.

I think there'll be a lot of, I don't expect that to happen. Listen, if you were going to judge us, what you're probably not going to have the Aaron Sorkin thing we'd like, which is Biden like has an amazing night and he puts the rate, it's going to be kind of in the middle somewhere, which is he did enough to, I'm sure. Sorkin's sending in remarks too. Maybe that would be good. Deliver that. But yeah, they've got, they've got enough speech makers. But David, I think this is, I mean, this, this is the best opportunity for,

to adjust the structure of this race. Absolutely. And the thing that concerns me is, you know, I think it's close,

But we know where the wrong tracks are. He's an incumbent. Incumbents all over the world are getting their ass handed to them. And if you look underneath these polls, and no one poll we can trust, but, you know, bleeding with young people, with black voters, with Hispanic voters. But then we are seeing some resiliency with white voters. Now, the Fox News poll had him up with rural voters, which cannot be true. But he's showing some, you know, maybe he'll outperform 2020 there, which is important. But the...

Current speed. Primarily probably because older voters. Right. Current speed in course is we're heading to another Donald Trump for years. And so and we know which sometimes you've got we've all been part of races where you're like, man, it's going to take a fucking miracle. This doesn't take a miracle. If enough people say Biden's got more of it than I thought and he had some energy and I think he's up to this. That's all it requires. Yeah. No, it can it can restart and put them on new railroad tracks. I problem is they want to fire the president.

And only the president can fix whether or not they want to fire him. So what I think the real danger is if he has a bad night, and then we're talking about a good night, to be fair. And I agree, the medium night is just more of the same, which is also a loss for Biden because it doesn't change the likely outcome, at least in the short term. But if he has a bad night, the Democratic hacks will start to leak and go crazy, and that'll all happen. The problem is there will be, and I think you will hear it, a legitimate situation

serious person argument that, look, he's not up to this. This is the president of the United States we're talking about. And we have to have this discussion and that'll break out in the non-hack world. You know, the thought leaders, whatever you want to call them. And that'll be that pressure on them.

And remember, his poor kid, I think, did get a bit of a bum conviction there. Sentencing the this the pressure on Joe, who knows he's older, too. So I don't I don't rule out the switch being thrown if it's really bad. That pressure, that pressure is going to build because there's another trial that's more serious that's coming in. Yeah. In September. OK, gentlemen, we will be back in a minute, but we have to pay a few bills.

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As the Sandman says, go to helixsleep.com slash axe. With Helix, better sleep starts now. My question to you guys is, and Plouffe, you know, you know Biden very well, as I do. You know, the idea that he's going to, that he would ever step away. But let's say he did. Let's say he did.

What would that convention look like? Who's going to decide who the nominees should be? Well, again, big asterisk. This is a fantasy that's not going to happen. Right. But if it did, you know, yeah, voters aren't involved. It's all the delegates. And basically, you'd have a number of candidates announced they're running. What would that race look like? Well, they do interviews everywhere they can. They'd raise money for ads. They'd actually have to go to states and visit with delegates. We'd have debates. It would actually dominate the political world, obviously, for those seven weeks.

And, you know, I think you'd probably have four to seven people run. It's basically a bake-off. And my guess is no one would get on the first ballot in Chicago, get 50%. So it'd be old school in that way.

But what about an early bandwagon, though? If he had a real sexy ticket that went in the media big, looked like a winner, you know, Whitmer and Warnock, something like that, that's very sexy, and it starts big and loud early, I think there could be a bandwagon effect. As long as the head of the public employee unions are for it, who have a lot of those delegates. There is a complication here, which is the vice president. Yeah, big one.

Yeah. And presumably she'd run. But I think it would be Mike. You're right. Maybe maybe a ticket emerges and you get to the point where like 50 percent of the delegates publicly have said they support that ticket. So that's one option.

But that would take a little time to come together. So, you know, you'd have this crazy, you know, situation where you're basically trying to appeal to a few thousand voters. And, you know, some of them are independent. Others are part of unions. Others, you know, the governor has a lot of control of some of these delegations. So it's crazy. I think the good scenario is Biden comes out of this busy.

viewed as sailing past expectations, having a few dominant moments with Trump, people in the Democratic Party feeling a lot better. And my guess is,

you'd see maybe a two-point swing, which, by the way, would be enough to put him ahead in a Pennsylvania or a Wisconsin. Right, right. He could have a momentum effect. And then does Biden do the move of, you know what? I spent 90 minutes, made my case. He proved he's crazy. No more debate. And you're Biden, you bolt it down. Tempting. So let's talk about the other scenario. By the way, while we were chatting here, Chris LaCivita,

Trump's manager put out a

a tweet saying, heading to West Palm, question is, who is with me? And it does make you wonder whether they're planning to unveil a VP candidate tomorrow before the debate, you know, to try and dominate the news going into that. I don't see the upside in it. The debate will dominate the news. They're wasting their firecracker there, I think. I don't know. That's the way it's ended me in. I thought he would want all his potential VPs at the debate spinning for him.

Yeah. So and maybe they would be anyway. But it's an interesting thing. Maybe maybe Las Vidas just fucking with us. It could be that, too. That would be my guess. Yeah, that would be his style. Kind of the M.O., you know. But let's let's so let's consider the other possibility. Trump is bad. Trump. Trump is the, you know, rally Trump. First debate. Trump. Biden does what we suggest he needs to do. Yeah.

What does that do to the race? What does that do to these, you know, these Haley people who are hanging out? Does it does that affect the structure of the race or is this all about Biden? It gives Biden a way to go run the table for a while, make some progress. I would go right to the pop states, man. I'd be in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania overnight. And.

and go do stuff. And now Biden looks like a winner. He's back. The press will go for that narrative big. So you got to feed them pictures and a campaign that shows that surge of enthusiasm for Biden. And I would think about weaseling out of the other debate if I could pull it off. If Trump was really bad. One other thing before on the Biden side of things, presumably if he doesn't do well, that you've got to kind of tune up the attacks on Trump and

after the debate and you got to irradiate him and take some moments from the debate. And I mean, it probably becomes more important if Biden has some good moments, you'd run some stuff featuring Biden having good moments that are probably on the attack. If Biden has a bad debate, you probably have to irradiate Trump for a while here and until you figure out what's going on here. The Kennedy thing might come to life even more. I just saw a statewide poll in a mountain state that Biden's never going to carry.

But still, you know, it's a Trump's underperforming normal. But the the ballot in the three way, only three points between Biden and RFK and RFK was in the high, high teens. You know, so if Biden stumbles, the press will just go to him as the other person.

And that's, you know, another cancerous problem. You guys mentioned something earlier that has haunted me for a while, which is there is an anti-incumbent mood all across the, you know, Macron's in trouble. You know, we're going to see a new regime in Britain. Yeah. Yeah.

It looks, you know, there's a by-election. I don't know exactly when in the next few days in Canada that could doom Trudeau. Yeah. Modi, Modi, South Africa, everybody, anybody in charge is getting punished. Yeah. So so you're talking. So Joe Biden needs to understand this.

because he is by instinct the ultimate institutional candidate. He has spent his whole lifetime in, you know... Eight decades in politics. He believes in it. The most instructive thing was when the prosecutor came out with that statement

language about how he appeared in their interview of him and described him as a confused old man. And he did the press conference after. And someone asked him about the polls. And he said...

I'm the most qualified candidate. And that's the way he thinks. He is a product of the institutions. He is offended by Donald Trump because he's an anti-institutionalist. I mean, I'm offended by that, too. But that's dangerous in an environment in which people are very jaundiced about institutions. It is dangerous. And they're mad about other stuff, too. I mean, he's got the incumbent generic problem and he's got the inflation problem, which kills you.

Yeah. Other than that, he's doing great. But he has to understand why people are pissed off. Yeah. And they're pissed off globally. So that just puts an even bigger premium on don't go down, defend your record land. It's a loser now. But David, your question about the structure. So let's say, which is something I'll think about often between now and Thursday, Trump has a really bad performance, as you said, and Biden actually overperforms. Structure of the race. So I think, you know, you mentioned Haley voters. I think there's some older...

you know, senior citizens. I think there's, you know, college educated suburban women and men who are undecided now because they're worried about Biden's fitness. I think if he has a good night, he can answer those questions. And I think perhaps move those people in this column. The question I have, and it's a question I don't have an opinion on yet, is these younger voters, younger voters of color. I don't think, yes, of course they, I'm not sure they have the reference that he slipped. They just think things aren't good.

They kind of like the Trump show. They think Biden's a lot older than more older than Trump than he is. So that is my question. I'm not sure a good debate performance fixes that part of his problem. But, you know, I think it does affect swing voters as we traditionally think of them. But we have a whole new this is a weird race, man. If you believe any of these polls,

You know, listen, the battleground city is doing best in Wisconsin, which is the whitest of the battleground states. Right. Exactly. It's both good and bad news simultaneously. Does that mean fatal problem with voters of color? Or if there's one thing in politics you ought to be able to do as a Democrat is get people almost always vote Democratic back. Yeah. You know, so I think if there's any revert to mean in this mad world we're in, Wisconsin is a great signal for Biden.

because there's nowhere to go but up among boaters he ought to be able to get. He may underperform. You know, maybe Georgia doesn't make it, although Georgia's tightening a little too. All the Sunbelt ones where he's been being killed this last round have gotten a little better for him. So, you know, this one, Plouffe is totally right. It's a crazy one because all the rulers don't quite, you know, now we're living in base eight world where the rulers are a little different.

But I don't know. I take the Wisconsin thing as more of a good potential sign for Biden than a bad one. I agree. But it is really interesting. And it says a lot about the changing bases of the parties that he's actually, that his best shot are those. Remember, it wasn't that long ago when the theory was Democrats are ascendant because they're going to be able to compete in these Sunbelt states because of,

African-American voters because of Hispanic voters. And here and it may be an artifact of the fact that we have an old white guy running and that there's a temporary kind of situation. But, you know, we're in a much different place than I think people expected. I'm going to stick in a shameless 40 second commercial for the EV politics project, EV politics dot org, because we're raising money.

to go into Michigan, a state I know very well, and make the 25,000 extremely good paying EV jobs there famous. It's not about EVs. It's about jobs. And the Biden guys, they've got this huge, beautiful layer cake there and they haven't touched it.

One plant has Chinese investors, so they're afraid. No, tell the story. I've done three successful governor's races in Michigan. Let me tell you, jobs that involve sparks and a good paycheck sell like crazy. And it is the biggest secret in Michigan and Georgia, by the way, massive number of new manufacturing jobs. And Biden ought to claim credit for sure. This is something, by the way, we didn't discuss. But when the economy comes up, there has been a manufacturing boom.

Huge. And it's been felt. Michigan has 44, I think, new factories in the last few years. We do a map in our pitch on it. It looks like the state has measles.

All the new facilities. We're talking $19 billion of investment in things that create manufacturing jobs, not coding, not flying saucer therapy, jobs that people in Michigan that he needs to understand. Yet it's the biggest secret in Michigan and Georgia. And for that matter, Arizona and Nevada, but really Michigan and Georgia. Well, and Mike, as you know, he's trying, Trump's trying to weaponize the EVs against Biden. So this makes this even more important. And listen, I'm not sure there's a Democrat alive who talks more

passionately and authentically about building an economy for people who work with their hands, who don't go to college. Like this is Biden's home base. It's a job sink. Take the green out. They have the yuppie green vote. It actually polarizes. That's one of the problems when selling EVs, the white polar bear stuff's a disaster, but jobs, jobs, jobs,

vehicle performance. These are manufacturing jobs. We don't make a lot of, anyway, I could go on for hours, check out the website, a lot of blogs on there and stuff about it. But I keep pounding on democratic world to like, you've got an ace up your sleeve. You ought to pull it.

Yeah. So, uh, David Plouffe, do you have anything you want to sell before we go? No, Murphy's idea to me sounds great, but listen, they'll do more of that. But you know, politics of course is more national now, but these are also many governor's races. So to think through in Michigan, in Georgia, like how do you, how do you tell stories that of course are not distinct from what you're saying nationally, but you put that extra sauce on is critical. Uh,

And I'd like to see more of that, quite frankly, because, again, if these deliverables deliverables, yes, that people buy, it's not billions of dollars. It's not a bill. It's like plants in in towns that people know. Right. Exactly. Well, Plouffe, we know you and we're happy that you're here because, you know, a lot. And so we hope you come back.

Your podcast is called The Campaign Manager. We'll all be watching with—I always joke about the fact that when—it's not just applies to Biden and Trump, too. When these guys go out and perform, there's performance anxiety. They perform and we get anxious. No kidding. I'm going to be watching this debate with a bottle of whiskey and a revolver.

Just staring at the TV. And maybe a flight plan to Portugal. Yeah, no, I mean, listen, we've been all part of presidential races, other important campaigns and debates. For me, by far, I've got more anxiety about this one than anyone I was personally involved in. Stakes are higher. I really do. Yeah, it's going to be something. All right, guys. All right, see you guys. Great to be with you. We'll see you on the other side.