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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
And again, I'm here for two reasons, pal. One, to rebuild the economy for hardworking middle class people. Give everybody a shot. Just a straight shot. Everybody gets a fair chance. Number one. Number two. Remember all this talk about how I don't have the black support. Come on. Give me a break. Come with me. Watch. Watch.
23, Skidoo. Yeah.
Yeah, here we are. I've got a couple of elites here. You're not even in the party, but you are elites. Murphy, how you doing today? We're very elitist. We do this thing in our velvet tuxedos, and often we switch to French, the language of world diplomacy, but we're keeping it in English for the little people today. Hacks on Kavoisier is what we really are, yeah. Here's a
The great Bill Kristol. Mr. Lee. Yes, leader of the, what do you guys call yourselves? Is it the Never Trump?
Never Trump, Republican voters against Trump, ex-Republicans against Trump, elitists against Trump, elitists against Trump who would prefer to defeat Trump and therefore are not crazy about Biden right now. We have a lot of different titles. The elites are good at these multiple titles. Exactly. That's one of their fortes. And just saying the word forte is one of their fortes. So that was a clip from Morning Joe. He called into his favorite show.
No elites there, too. That's good. On Monday, yes, to those tribunes of the people, Mika and Joe, to proclaim himself fit and ready to go. It was a call and it wasn't on video, so free to use cards.
And he delivered this was this is his new message. This is a Mike Donilon special. His his very, you know, talented political guy who I think may be giving him bad advice right now, but is a really, you know, pointed writer and loves the.
elite theme. And it was what he sent to Congress in this letter on Monday. And boys, I'm telling you, that was an effective tool because basically he sent a letter to Congress, never addressed the concerns about him other than to acknowledge that people had concerns and basically said, screw it, I'm in.
You know, so go ahead and try and take me out. And I talked to a lot of members of Congress.
uh, now, I mean, I, many members of Congress in the last 24 hours and they're at, and you know, they're saying, well, what's the point of challenging him or speaking out because he's clearly not going to go. Yeah. He's doing a hell of a lot better job squelching the sensible revolt than he is squelching Donald Trump. The first effective Biden campaign I've seen has been in the last 48 hours, but I think it's starting to work bill.
It's hard to tell. I think these things go in zigs and zags, and people overestimated a few days ago that he's going to be out in two or three days. And now I think they're overestimating he's safe because he's made a populist appeal that we don't really know how it's working, except anecdotally it's appealing, I think, to some of his supporters, rallying them against the elites.
I'd say on the other, I've been on a couple of Zooms, just random, you know, things are pre-scheduled more the kind of swing middle, upper middle class swing voters. He ultimately needs to win, get back. Some of whom deserted Trump for him in 2020. They are not there. I mean, I was supposed to be on one of these calls to give advice on how to work against Trump.
uh and i tried to i did that in my brief opening remarks every question was about well how do we get rid of biden i can't go to my friends right now and tell them to not to go back to trump if biden's the nominee and i actually said a couple times look i i don't i have my own views on this but we should probably talk the point of this call was to be an anti-trump call and they were saying we can't really even litigate that until we just didn't we know until we have a different nominee now
Some of them will come back. If Biden is the nominee, they will mostly vote for Biden and some of them will get active again. But the degree to which Biden, I think the cap on the kind of swing voters of the never Trump variety, I'm not talking about there are other kinds of swing voters maybe can be appealed to. I think the degree to which he now has put a cap on.
on his ability to get any of them back is striking. And what happens, one last point, the ballot tests, of course, show some erosion for Biden. We shouldn't kid ourselves, but it's limited. It's a few points. It's not 15 or 30 points. Well, it's pretty hard to lose a lot of points in a polarized environment. Well, that's it. It's such a polarized environment. And A, of course, we would all answer the question, yes, you know, would you be for Biden at the end? So it's not, it doesn't show the...
drop in enthusiasm and an ability to really come back from being behind. I think, can Biden stabilize himself at minus six or minus eight? Probably in this polarized environment. But I mean, what does that do? Right. No, listen, the issue isn't whether we found the floor. We may have found the floor. The issue is how much he's reduced the ceiling.
Correct. And that is the that's the problem. There's a new AARP poll out today taken post debate. How ironic. Trump plus six plus six in that poll. That's Wisconsin, David. If I can interrupt. That's Wisconsin. It's a poll done, as you know, by Biden's and Trump's pollsters. So it's like an authentic bipartisan poll, presumably. And Tammy Baldwin's ahead by five points.
of her Senate, the Democratic Senate candidate, the Republican Senate, so it used to be the other side, the Republican Senate candidate in Wisconsin. So think of that, Tammy Baldwin's plus five, Trump is, Biden is minus five or minus six, if it's the three way. So what, that means he's losing, if I'm doing my math right, one of 10 Tammy Baldwin voters in Wisconsin, in the swing state. Where Biden is definitely-
It was Biden's best swing state. Biden has run better than Democratic Senate candidates in the past, right? Ron Johnson won there in 22. So, I mean, that is how many will some of them will come back maybe, but enough that that's a very bad sign. It's awful. I mean, but the polling argument is not. So this thing is sadly ironic, the whole deal, because it reminds me so much. And Bill, I'm sure it'll remind you of the early days of Trump.
When the core politician, the modern politician DNA of careerism leads to cowardice. So, you know, on the calls, they're all kvetching to each other about how bad Biden is. And most of them from safe districts, by the way. The ones who are in tough districts, I think, might say something. But, yeah, the polls are terrible. Wisconsin was Biden's best swing state before the debate.
But now, you know, it's interesting because we both kind of predicted this in different ways, X. I'll blow our own horn for a minute. I was honking on before the debates about if he has a really bad debate, there's going to be a big avalanche of panic and dump Biden. And there is some eye rolling. But you kept saying even if it happens, he'll never give it up. It's not his personality. It's not Jill's. So here we are when he ought to give it up. The the silent.
You know, complaining caucus of Democratic politicians are almost all very concerned privately. But the big presidential machine, they're...
You know, I'm starting to now if he has three more events where he does the Dana Carvey version of himself, you know, blah, blah, blah. Pirates of the Caribbean. Then maybe it could reignite it all. But NATO, the NATO summit is going to give him a reason to hide for a few days. And then the convention and the Republican convention. I hate to be dour about it, but I don't know. I think it might be him. Their their goal is just to survive today when the caucuses meet on the Hill and
and then get through the week, and then the Republican convention comes, and then time starts to... Run out. Elapse. I have to note, though, I was uncharacteristically respectful and didn't interrupt you to say that what are the odds that you get two Jews on this podcast, and it's the Irish guy who is the first one to use Yiddish. Okay? Good... Kvetch is one word. Good.
So the tell that you're not one of the tribe is that you turned it into two syllables. But indeed, there's a lot of dog whistle to my people when I'm on with a couple of mockers like you. All right. Oh, I'm fine. Believe me. Believe me.
My grandfather, Becker, would be very proud of me right now. But let me say this on the campaign that the White House is running. It's really interesting, the different levels on which it's running. Because on the one hand, it is really as they have been in the past. It's the sort of older black political leadership that's rallying to...
Biden, the Congressional Black Caucus. And he made a point of that on Morning Joe that, you know, the black community, I don't know about these polls, the black community is really with me and so on. And then privately, their people are telling folks, well, look, if it's not him, it's going to be Kamala and she's not going to do better than him.
So it's sort of, you know, a weird juxtaposition, kind of cynical juxtaposition. But that, you know, that is a question that you get from...
When you talk to people, they say, well, you know, if Joe were to go, it would have to be Kamala. I'm not sure that that is true, but I'm also not sure at all that she would do worse than he. There's no evidence in polling about that. And at least she would be able to take the case to Trump. Well, what's interesting is the age thing, which is now the thing in American politics. You know, Biden went from they hate him on the economy. Now they hate him on the economy and too old.
The age virus would move to Trump with Kamala. Now, look, I think she's a terrible candidate. It amazes me that the answer to any question in politics is Kamala Harris. But if the question is what would be better than Biden disaster, I believe it would be Kamala Harris. It would make abortion the center of the debate. It would move the age problem focus on Trump where it belongs because he's out of his mind.
And it would also at least partially fix the young voter, voter of color problem that Dems have, which really, you know, that'll be the difference in the Georgias of the world. It could be the difference in Michigan and Pennsylvania. So as bad as she is, we're in a world where she's a significant improvement. Though, again, I think if Biden moves, there's no reason why they shouldn't open it up and have the proper fight for the best candidate. I would take her over Biden now, wouldn't you guys? Yeah.
Yeah, and I think partly, and also it's a dynamic situation. With Biden, everything is known. I don't think he's going to get better overnight.
all in the next four months, he could get, you know, unfortunately could make some, could have some other debate-like performances, right? I mean, so I think there's still downside there and very little upside. With Kamala, she wouldn't be instinctively my first choice among the possible nominees, but if there's a competition of some sort and she emerges from it, she sort of gets to reintroduce herself
People don't know that much about her. They've seen her a little as VP and she hasn't been great, but she could have a bit of a moment and a fresh start would be very good. I think flipping the script, I mean, the degree to which the Democrats have become the party of competition, youthful candidates, fresh faces.
People clearly want that, right? I mean, people have wanted that for two years. And so it might needn't work out perfectly, but I've got to think the odds are much better than sticking with the 81-year-old candidate. I just think, as Mike said, flipping the age issue. They're certainly better. But, you know, the tell, you guys have both been involved in campaigns for a long time. And Mike,
You know, I always, you know, I pay attention to polls. By the way, all these Democrats who are out there saying that polls are bullshit, you know, they're not accurate anymore. We don't believe them. Every single one of them polls. OK, every single one of them polls. They got that line from their pollster. Come out against polls. It cuts three to one. But the thing I always look to also is what is the opponent doing?
You know, what is the opponent doing? It says it speaks volumes that Donald Trump has been quiet and playing golf for the last since since the debate. They have not run one ad on the debate. They and Lara Trump.
in the height of irony, goes on last week and says it would be an affront to democracy if Democrats replaced Joe Biden on the ticket. What does it tell you, man? They want to run against him. No, he's a gift to them now. Totally.
I mean, somehow they managed to hood him like a falcon. It really is the number one achievement of the Trump campaign is getting a sock in his beak there so he's not squawking right now. Because this thing, they've won the lottery. I'll tell you, after this podcast, I'm very tempted. I'm stuck in a hotel room here at DFW Airport. But I'm going to see if I can find a Church of Satan and at least read a few pamphlets. Because Trump has the best luck of any supervillain
You know, I mean, if Goldfinger had this kind of luck, we'd all be in a different place right now. It amazes me how lucky this guy is. Yeah. Well, you know, Democrats are creating his luck right now. And, Bill, I got a call today from a venerable old Chicago ward boss.
who, you know, who's an ethnic white guy, you know, a conservative Democrat. But he's just worried about Karen. You know, he looks at his ward and and he said, you know, we're going to get smoked.
And I was thinking, I was talking to the guy, you know, I was one of these young people who came to Chicago back in the early 70s, filled with piss and vinegar about reforming the system and kicking the old party bosses out and so on. I am really nostalgic for the old party bosses right now, because you know what the old party bosses would do? They would go to the president and.
And they would say, it's not there for you. Totally. They were rational. And they would replace the candidate. And, you know, here I've been thinking in the last 24 hours about like, if you just start with a blank slate, who would you replace him with? And, you know, the name I came up with, you guys, I'm interested in what you think about this. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. Be a great candidate. I don't know if you get him through a convention on identity, but he'd be great. He killed Trump.
You know, he's a war hero, fighter pilot, astronaut. He's married to Gabby Giffords, who's an iconic...
courageous figure in her own right. He comes from a swing state. He's moderate. He's been strong on immigration. He has an expertise in foreign policy and national security, sits on the Armed Services Committee. That's what the old party bosses would do. They'd look around and say, who can beat this guy? Right, exactly. They had a narrow focus. By the way, you can tell your pal, Boss Kronsky, not to worry. I know he has my seven votes there.
All right, great. You've hit your quota. I know, I've hit my number for the year. This is the greatest streak since DiMaggio's 56 games. You get it in every show. Yeah, he votes there too.
I mean, Kelly is one. I tend to, he's been on our, my short list and others that I've talked to is kind of the kind of a guy you'd want. You'd hope gets in the race these days. It's not going to be the boss. He is short by the way. So when you say short list that that's the one liability I can think of. Well, he's short too. He could get all our votes easily. Short list and bald list. But the,
No, but I mean, so we're not going to have the bosses do it, but we do have a sort of substitute for it, which is, it's called like the democratic competition, debates, town halls, making your pitch to the delegates, let the voters take a look, let the delegates in this case take a look, but they're going to be pretty representative of
the party, and they're going to look at the polls too. So you know what? I don't feel I know any of these guys well enough or women well enough. And I don't know that some of them outperform, as you guys know very, very well in campaign. Some of them outperform, some of them underperform. You know what would be very good for the next four weeks would be to see Gretchen Whitmer and Mark Kelly and Pritzker and whoever else you want to do some, and of course, Vice President Harris. And
Someone like me might start out thinking Mike Kelly has a great resume and might end up thinking maybe not as good a candidate. But that's why you have that's why we have primaries and why we have debates. And let me just say parenthetically, because, you know, there are a lot of Democrats out there who, you know, are unhappy with me and calling me a traitor and all of that, as they did a year and a half ago and a year ago when I raised this issue of age.
I worked with Joe Biden. I loved working with Joe Biden. I think he was a great asset to President Obama in the White House. I think he's done some historically important things. I admire the stand he's taken on, you know, and that's infrastructure and health care and climate and so on. I admire the stalwart stand he's taken on Ukraine and
pulling. I mean, there are many, many things I admire about Joe Biden. He is absolutely right to be proud of his record and his 50 years of service and his three and a half years as president. But this is an election about the future, not the past. And the question is, can you present someone who will be 82 years old when he starts his term and who clearly has lost a step
to the American voter and asked them to give him a four-year contract, as vile and as loathsome as Donald Trump may be, the evidence is that they're, you know, 75% say they don't think Biden is, they think he's too old. 50% think he's incompetent. That's a tough field on which to win the game. Well, the verdict has been reached before the debate. The debate just bolted the coffin lid shut.
People, and Biden does this elite thing, well, polls are people. Polls actually how you honestly survey, quote-unquote, regular voters. Not how big the crowd is at the union hall, your advance team crammed in there. And the polls have said by the supermajority in the 60s and 70s, people think he's too old. It's a settled question everywhere, but in Joe Biden's mind. I want to amplify one thing Bill's been getting at, because I think it's not being...
factored into the debate enough. You know, campaigns now are pop culture too. And if the Dems did open the process, yeah, it would be wild and the nuts would have some, you know, I prefer the boss method too. But,
It would be romantic and interesting. It would seize the attention of the country. And that would be so powerful in this election. It would be rocket fuel. Bill is absolutely right. I mean, the thing that where I was going was the thing that most troubled me about, uh,
this was that I felt like we'd reached this point at some point where we'd have a crisis because of the age issue. And let's be clear, it's not because of what we're saying, it's because of what he did.
on that stage. Right. Well, it was proven he had to perform and he couldn't because of age. Deprive the party of the primary election that it deserved and needed. Now you have a chance to do that in a shorter kind of truncated time period. But it's, you know, I think it's doubtful it's going to happen. It's, you know, here's one clue, by the way. Gretchen Whitmer is starting her book tour today. And here's what she said on Good Morning America.
I'm a co-chair for the Biden-Harris campaign. I have great confidence in this president. He's got receipts he's delivered for the American people and I'm glad that he's ready to continue this fight. What do you say to your fellow Democrats like Senators Patty Murray, Jon Tester who say he still has to prove his fitness answer questions? I respect the conversation that's happening and certainly I think what we've seen from the president is an eagerness to get out and about. He's going to be in Michigan later this week. He's getting all across the country.
I think he's shown that he's got the energy and he's ready to take this on. There you go. The Doug Burgum school of political opportunism of the moment. It's not smart. You know, if she she thinks, I suppose this is the safer thing to do. And maybe she believes it and she'll run later on. But this is her moment, honestly. And she doesn't have to come out against him. I don't think she just doesn't need to fall over herself to be formed. But they're twisting arms and she's nominally a co-chair. Well, I think something else happened, you guys, which is somebody leaked.
the fact that she had told the campaign that he can't carry Michigan. And, and that, uh, I think somebody who leaked it was probably, it may have been the campaign itself just to kind of take her out of the mix as a potential successor, but somebody, somebody knifed her. Yeah. That's a good point. I mean, I think that she was, uh, uh,
You guys are good. Axe and Murphy are good at the analysis of who's knifing whom behind the scenes. I think it's Newsom or Pritzker, by the way. Knifing by doing the opposite of knifing. Somehow you guys know a lot about that. I actually have some scars from Murphy. Well, we tried to knife Joe Biden a year ago. Axe, he and Eddie ought to run. I wrote a thing on Substack. You did it multiple times a year ago. And clearly you can see our powerful elite influence here.
You mentioned Patty Murray. You know, that hasn't gotten as much attention. Patty Murray is a serious, cautious legislator, in my opinion. She's quite senior by now. She's chairman of appropriations. The fact that she went out and said that tells me she is not, and Washington State's not in play and all that.
she is worried about him being president. She's worried he's going to lose, first of all. But she's also worried that he's not up to being president. She's the kind of person who thinks a little more about actual governing and a little less maybe about the maneuvering, the day-to-day maneuvering of elections. Dick Durbin, who's the number two in the Senate, was asked about it. And I don't have the clip, but they said, will Biden be the candidate? He said, we'll see.
Yeah. So, you know, there obviously is concern in the high and the councils of the Senate. The senators, and I don't mean this as cruelly as it sounds, are a bit like cockroaches. When you see one out in public, you know, there are 25 more that feel the same way. Yes. The problem is that, you know, there were a few people who were thinking about stepping out and, you know, Mark, Mark Warner got beaten back. And, you know, so, you know, the Washington dynamic is huge.
is taking hold. The question for the leaders, and Hakeem Jeffries met with his caucus this morning. I haven't actually seen a report. There are no cell phones allowed in there for obvious reasons because of leakers and recorders. But he, I haven't seen a report, but he, you know, we'll hear from his members. And Schumer has his luncheon today with the
With the senators, the thing that the leaders have to think about, you know, you mentioned one of you guys that that Tammy Baldwin was running five points ahead and and Biden six points behind. Do the leaders believe that their frontline candidates for Senate and House can continue to run?
well ahead of Biden? And do they think that Biden has bottomed out to the point where they don't feel like they're jeopardizing, you know, Bob Casey, Senator from Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin, Rosen in Nevada, the empty, the open Senate seat in Arizona, that where, you know, you could end up with 55 Republican senators instead of, you know, a more modest candidate
gain on the part of senators. Jon Tester, who is one of the most endangered in Montana because Trump won that state by 16 points,
you know, has been very reserved about Biden, as has Sherrod Brown in Ohio, who said, I'm listening to my constituents. They have concerns. I'm going to continue to listen. So those guys have kept some distance. But do the leaders conclude that it is in the interest of trying to hold down losses in the Senate or hold on to the Senate and trying to win the House?
Oh, I think they just don't know what to do about it because they're thinking to drag Biden out of there, if he's going to fight, we destroy the party in order to save it.
You know, because it's very hard to. They can't drag him out, guys. He either walks out on his own or he. Yeah, that's my point. You know, they don't think they have the toolkit to get the result they want, which would be no more Biden. But to make a real push to persuade him by really coming out, I think would be worth it. And I know everyone hates that. It would be unpleasant. It would be nasty at this point. Biden's made it.
it nasty. And yet, what was nastier than the 1968, you know, Humphrey succeeding Johnson after the Democratic Convention and stuff? At the end of the day, he was down 20 points after that convention. He lost by a point. He lost by a point. Because you know what? He ran a heck of a lot better than LBJ would have run.
in 1968, and Bobby Kennedy would have won, in my opinion. - Yeah, for sure, 100%. - So, I mean, the turnover, the flipping of the page, the flipping of the script does a lot of good and a lot of stuff that looks very awkward at the very beginning and unpleasant and it's, you know, gets forgotten by, you know, a month or two when you've actually had the campaign, but the new face who maybe has a compelling message and can take it to Trump, who has real vulnerabilities, that's the real tragedy of it. Trump is vulnerable.
Trump is underwater. Oh, yeah. The opportunity cost is huge. You're right. I mean, this is where a normal Democratic candidate, a Mark Kelly, a Gretchen Whitmer, I think probably a Kamala Harris, has a decent shot against Trump. I mean, I wouldn't say at this point quite favored against Trump, but certainly closer to 50-50. Well, like I said, if they didn't, if the Trump people didn't think so, they would be whaling away on Biden, right?
I mean, let's say tomorrow Schumer said he really ought to go. I don't think that would change the outcome. Schumer, how many delegates does he have? I don't think doing that publicly would have any good do any good either. I mean, the only hope and I think it was eliminated yesterday when Biden sent his letter to the he made his declaration to the Congress and went on mourning Joe and did what he did.
I think the only hope would have been if they had gone to him privately. Remember, George asked him on Friday, what if the leaders come to you and say you're going to jeopardize the House and Senate? He said they won't do that.
And so, you know, if they did, perhaps they could have. And maybe the time was last week, not this week. But here's Hakeem Jeffries, by the way, in a corridor yesterday of the Capitol. Do you support Joe Biden staying as your Democratic nominee? Yes, I made clear the day after the debate publicly that I support President Joe Biden and the Democratic ticket.
My position has not changed. So, you know, that was yesterday. It doesn't mean it can't change today, but it seems unlikely. One thing I want to point out, and this is a concern, and then we ought to talk about your issue, Bill, which is, okay, let's say he stays, then what? How do you prosecute the case? Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. ♪
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You know, one of the concerns about him staying is you want this race to be about Donald Trump and the threat that Donald Trump represents. If every day is a health report on the president and every stumble, stammer and miscue dominates the discussion, you know, you can never get to the main issue.
Yesterday, this issue came up about this Parkinson's specialist who's been visiting the White House and the medical unit at the White House on a regular basis. And.
I don't have the tape. I probably that I'm remiss in that regard. But the press secretary, Corinne Jean-Pierre, had quite a set to with the White House press corps who demanded to know whether that guy was seeing the president, why he was there now.
This guy has been consulting the White House Medical Office since 2012, so 12 years. He's visited the White House frequently. There was an answer to this question as to what he was doing there. And she said, I can't discuss it because of security reasons and privacy reasons, which is bullshit.
And the reporters knew it was bullshit and it made them angry and it prolonged the story. So, you know, one thing they need to do is get their shit together. Yeah, well, she's awful. I mean, can we just say it? She's been awful from the first day on the job. I'm sorry. It's a tough job. But and then when they do this interview.
That's kind of the Washington issue. I don't know if it's a regular people issue, but it's going to start to infect the debate. There's a cover up here. You know, the senior staff, there's been a lot of reporting. Well, you saw the story in the Wall Street Journal this morning, which is a long piece on what the staff has done for the last year to try and obscure...
His his condition from from the public. You know, I fear you're going to see more of that, but at least, you know, understand where you're at here and don't exacerbate the problem by being less than transparent.
with with with the media and the and the public. So, guys, let's assume what I believe, which is that Biden is implacable. He is he has the nomination and he's not going to give it up. Map out the strategy from here to November that to to try and win this election.
Well, first of all, I think your long cherished dream of running Amtrak is indeed over. If the president does pull off the, I may end up under Amtrak. I don't know. You know, I think you hide them and you got Trump. Um, I, there's no strategy when you don't have a candidate who can perform. Um, and every time he does perform in a major way, uh, the debate goes back to age. So you've got to force it about it. Rose garden strategy, uh,
Um, you, you hope that once this thing is beat down, it starts to be about Trump because the polling is going to make him the president apparent. And then you're going to force the country to rethink all that. And Biden becomes kind of the boring mushy. Well, at least he's not Trump insurance. I don't think it's a winning campaign, but since Biden basically can't perform very much other than reading off a prompter at a union hall, you know, your options are, are very limited. All right, Bill.
I mean, I should say to you before you start that, uh, you know, they are not, they are not forecasting a Rose garden strategy. Now he's told the governors, he's going to limit his days because they're too exhausting. Uh,
uh and and Denny's closes the early bird at six too you know you got a natural ceiling there but the uh but uh his team is saying he's going to be you know vigorously campaigning and so on I mean what what do you have in your uh magic uh toolbox there not much but I'd say two things I mean one he may make it through the next 10 days as you guys have been forecasting and I guess I would
I think it's a little better than 50-50 now. Maybe not quite as sure that he will, but if he does, it's not like another debate event couldn't happen.
And then he might still get out, right? I mean, I don't think the chances are non-trivial. It's not non-trivial. If he makes it through the next 10 days, it doesn't prove he makes it through the next four months. I hope he's well, and I hope it doesn't happen. But I think that's a real thing. And then you have a later attempt to get him off when voters really say, oh, this is not just—it was—it is a problem. What is Nancy Pelosi's formulation?
It's not an episode. It is a condition. And then the demands to have a serious neurological cognitive set of tests. I mean, really, it is not prying. It is not intrusive to say we'd kind of like to know this about the president before the next four years. I guess the other thing, but assuming that doesn't happen and he kind of stays on in the kind of current, not great, but not disastrous course, I guess you might say, or it's not another disaster like the debate.
You'd have to rehabilitate Vice President Harris. I mean, the Trump people aren't idiots. They're going to spend the next September, October saying if you're voting for Biden, you're voting for Harris. And if unless they can give Harris more prominence and get voters somewhat comfortable with the notion that she might take over at some point in the second term, then you're a little more in a Roosevelt Truman situation, perhaps. And and, you know, he's not Roosevelt. So it's still not likely to end as well as the 44 campaign did. But
maybe you get voters a little more comfortable with that. And I have, I've always been for a Rose garden strategy for that, for the reason Mike's laid out that I never thought he could really, the idea that he'll do better by being out even more. He's never been enough. I think it's just kind of trap. So,
And then you just have to say Trump's unacceptable. Biden has a good team. I think this is something Mike has stressed in the past. What about he does have a good cabinet? Maybe people should actually know who some of them are. It sort of helped Reagan in 84 and ended up not being competitive. But I was old enough to see that from, I guess, being a young assistant professor. It kind of helped when he staggered at the end of the first debate that people thought, you know what?
Vice President Bush, George Shultz, Jim Baker, those guys kind of know what they're doing. If Reagan has occasional little stumble in his second term or slows down a bit, it's not the end of the world. You need to convey that to people. And I think it's incidentally not untrue. It's true of Janet Yellen and Tony Blinken and a lot of these people. But literally no one has that. Buttigieg, Raimondo, no one has any idea who they are. So that's hard to do at the last minute, too.
Yeah, well, I mean, this has been a fault, I think, that they have underutilized. Mike has been all over this, that they've underutilized their cabinet and their surrogates. There has to be a recognition that, you know, he is not their boss.
spokesperson. And, you know, they have to have he has to do enough so that people know that he's functioning. But he can't do you know, he can't he can't he can't deliver the message. Now, I think you're going to see other players on the field starting with the convention, you know, the presidents and, you know, Obama and Clinton and others, you
who will also be out there making the case. But they do have to get a team out there. It'll be funny to have the ex-presidents be younger than the current president. That's kind of... Well, and that's a little scary. Thanks for putting a log on the fire there, my friend. But think about it. But if Obama gets out there and does good Obama, and Clinton gets out there and shows he's still got a little of it, that's not so good for Biden.
Biden looks even worse if you start surrounding him with superstars. Now, here is one, just to go back to the dark side for a second, just for fun. Here's a shit-stirring idea. If the bosses said, all right, we're down to the bottom of the list, but we got to make Axelrod the senator from Illinois. So, boom, you're now Dick Durbin. Now you're talking. Maybe it's Dick Durbin. Yeah, I voted for you 11 times. And what about doing this today? Go out and say there's concern that
But there's affection. I'd like to see another debate. What does Biden say to that? Because you kind of call his bluff. All right, Joe, you're raring to go. You get a little sleep this time. Now, Trump will never accept it. But Biden has to answer that question, I think.
You know, you kind of call the bluff. Well, I just thought of that on the fly and I thought I'd throw it out there for our Senate listenership. Let's assume we just chug along. He's renominated. Do we think there will be a September debate? Do you think Trump? I don't. You know, Trump already said that I don't want to put Joe through that again.
I don't know why, if he thinks he's in command of the race, why he would want to. Because the truth of the matter is, you're gambling that Biden, you know, Biden says he had a bad night. You're gambling that he might have a better than bad night. And the truth is, Trump had a terrible debate. It just was eclipsed by the horrific nature of Biden's debate. Yeah.
So I don't think they're that eager for another debate. Yeah, I think the weapon is not so much the debate, because you're right. Why do it if you're Trump when everything's your way? The weapon is, is Biden for another debate or not?
You know, that's kind of interesting to me because there still has not been the acid test. I mean, the truth is it's less of a risk for Biden as the nominee. You know, I mean, he won't he'll at least be past the the.
the challenge that he might, you know, there might, what he's facing right now, which the last debate triggered. So maybe he'd feel more comfortable doing that, trying to get back on the horse. But I kind of don't think that, but that's how this thing will roll. But let me, would I, and Mike, you know, because you are good with switchblades and bludgeons and all that stuff,
It seems to me that if the focus of the media was going to be 50-50 comparative now, it's got to be like 80-20 negative on Trump.
Like, I think, you know, I think you've got to really turn the negative media. You've got to turn on the negative media spigot and really confront people with the reality of who Trump is. Yeah. And I think once the debate on should Biden be is beaten down, which does give Biden a victory of sorts that he fended off all the jackals and everybody. Yeah.
And he's the nominee and the polling will still be shit. So the story will be malaise in the Democratic Party, Trump next president. And that arc light, that won't be great for Trump. I mean, they may try to hide him and sit on their lead, but he'll still be Trump. His ego will put him out there. He'll be covered more intently than ever before because Biden will be a boring fact of life. Great. We got another Mondale, the old guy Trump's beating every day.
So that does make it about Trump, at least in the process coverage. So the Biden guys have to get a lot better at getting out of the spotlight so it can be all about Trump. Because every time they're in the spotlight, the story is Bluebird special. Yeah. You know, you are so right. Like, this has been a good stretch for Trump.
Trump, not just because Biden has been dealing with this debate fallout, but because he's been out playing golf. He's like 100 rounds of golf away from getting elected president of the United States. If they could just keep him out there.
I think they have a hell of a lot better chance to pull this off. But one thing he is, we do have a Republican convention next week. Bill Kristol will not be speaking this time. There was a huge demand, but I just decided I've got family. I've got family obligations back here. They invited you to be on a platform, but they didn't tell you that it was to hang you, not to.
not to hear from you, but the, uh, that's how they roll over there, you know, but I'm the only one I will brag on this podcast who's been banned for life by the Iowa Republican, uh, presidential straw poll. Is that right? That's true. Yep. Yep. Absolutely. There, I voted multiple times in the Chicago style way back when to prove the, uh, the thing was fixed because the ink they'd stamp your hand when, after you voted, uh,
can be washed off. So we'd all go in the washroom, the Graham people, the Lamar, and we'd all wash off and vote 40 times. I pulled a New York Times reporter in to blow up the thing because I knew we were going to be fourth. And they banned me for life. So I'll never get to go to another presidential thing. But to your point. You're still welcome here, Mike. But what I was going to say is that he does have a convention and he is in some time between now and then going to pick a vice presidential candidate.
candidate. Could be today, could be tomorrow, could be at the beginning of the convention. But it was interesting that I think this, I pulled this clip of Don Jr. And he was talking about a guy who is, I think, still considered one of the top two, if certainly one of the top three potential candidates, Marco Rubio. And here's what
Don Jr. had to say. Rubio guarantees another impeachment. It has to be Vance or Vivek. I mean, listen, there is... And again, I have a good relationship with Marco, but there is some truth about, like...
You know, having someone that's a little bit more establishment in there, it's like, wouldn't, like the Senate rhinos, like, wouldn't they love that? Like, you know, I joked, you know, I said that about Nikki Haley. It was like, it gets her, like, by the time my father's hand moves off the Bible in the swearing-in process on, what's the date? Is it January 20th?
12 p.m. January 20th. The second it goes off, it would be like impeachment and gone. Like that's how fast it would be. Great patriot moron. There you go. You you Republicans. But Crystal, it is really interesting that the president's son is publicly.
uh campaigning against one of the principal contenders and he's obviously he is a uh a jd vance man that's been he's been the principal advancer of vance uh throughout this uh uh process but man that's crazy to have all of this out in the open like that well yeah but that's trump i mean trump world is crazy i would say given how crazy trump is and trump world is they have run a
surprisingly disciplined campaigns, Susie Wiles and, yeah, Lasavita have done it. Yeah. A hundred percent himself, whatever, you know what he goes on the sanity thing. And of course, if you, if you have any normal standard of like a person who should be president, I States, he's wildly fall short and he's lies and he does this and he does that. But,
On the whole, you know, they've got the abortion thing back to a slightly more reasonable version of that policy. We should talk about the same sex marriage. You know, the attack on same sex marriage. He is ludicrous that he's disavowing that Heritage Project 2025 politicized the whole civil service policy.
project uh because he was his people totally involved in it and appraised it and they're promoting it but you know what it wasn't stupid i mean it's a tactical matter it wasn't ridiculous of him to say that's not me i i don't i don't have anything to do with those heritage i don't have anything to do with that thing that all my people just wrote so he's running a kind of in that respect as kind of shrewd and disciplined campaign as he probably can if i think vp pick
be interesting they're running a discipline campaign they're running and he's not totally blowing it up and he's not totally blowing it up so the question for me is van advance pick goes in the don jr direction and rubio pick goes in the la savitia suzy wiles you know direction i think i've kind of bergam i would say the same boring but but doesn't
put off your, you know, swing-ish, you know, Trump, Trump-adjacent type voters who have nervous about Trump. It's a fake, it could fake reassure them. Same with the donors. I wonder, you know, I noticed on some list, I hadn't really thought about this until a few days ago, one of the eight people asked for documents, you know, for the stuff, for the VP, apparently it was Tom Cotton, the senator from Arkansas. I wonder if Cotton isn't kind of a
good pick for Trump from his point of view. You get a little bit of Rubio's, you know, he's a serious guy. He's on armed services, blah, blah, blah. He's a Senator. He's not, he voted to actually on the right side of the 2020 certification. But he's okay with the base. And he's never criticized Trump, unlike Rubio. And he's not,
He's not all way out there like Vance. I kind of think Cotton is my dark horse choice. From their point of view, wouldn't be a crazy choice. He's the meme king of January 6th, though. And then he voted to certify. But you're right. On paper, he makes a certain cynical logic. The thing to remember is no voter cares about VP. It's merely a message about who the nominee is.
So if Trump picks a alleged knife and fork eater, that could be reassuring. That's the Burgum. That's the Rubio. I just think feral Trump will be suspicious of the ambition of a Marco who's had every position or the sun and would ice Trump in a minute to get the job. And the same with Vance. So we both know from his anti-Trump days. But I would make one point. They did do the thing that we've always wanted to do about tamping down the platform.
That's the advantage of authoritarianism. They just said, no vote, screw you, here's the new platform. There's some nutty stuff in there. But for a long time, Bill and I have lived this Republican presidential campaign. We've wanted to trim some of that stuff down. It is a tradition of the party that the nominee totally ignores the platform. It's kind of a chew toy for a bunch of activist delegates for a few days before the convention. And it's always been a nightmare. Manafort, in my view...
just sold some horseshit in there to his Eastern European guys who foolishly thought it mattered. And then now the Trump guys have just stamped it down, which is a huge change.
And not a prickly, small-t democratic one, but that's their way. And by the way, they also little noted it was a small nod to those who are worried about climate change because they shrunk the platform down from 80 pages to 16 pages and maybe saved some portion of a tree. Yet .4 attacks electric vehicles, and don't think they're going to hear from our whip today.
They must hate American jobs. We ought to hear from the elites, a.k.a. voters, who have taken the trouble to send us some questions. Let's cue the orchestra. Listener mail.
All right, if you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do is email us at hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. Also, you can send us a voice memo from your smartphone. Just keep it under 25 seconds. We're the Bloviators and use your name. Or you can call our special phone line at Axelrod World Headquarters and leave us a message, again, of your name.
The number 773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. Okay, first question for David Axelrod from Keith.
During the Obama administration, it seemed like President Obama and Vice President Biden and their families were very close. However, recent reporting suggests that that might not be the case today. What is your understanding of their personal relationship at this time? And could you see them having any discussions about Biden's desire to stay in the race? Well, Keith, I actually witnessed...
the evolution of the relationship between Barack Obama and Joe Biden. They actually weren't very close when Biden joined the ticket in 2008. And over the years, they grew very close, both politically and personally. I know there's all kinds of...
reporting, I think, erroneous about the nature of their relationship. They're friends and they're respectful friends. And as friends, I imagine that they are having conversations. And I expect that if Biden stays in the race, that you're going to see President Obama out on the stump for him and the ticket and making a vigorous case for why Democrats should come out and vote in November. I
I will tell you this one story relative to that. When the news came that—
Beau Biden had been stricken. This was the first sign of his brain tumor, but it was thought to be a stroke. I was in a meeting with the president and some others in the Oval Office, and it was very unusual because Barack Obama, one of the things about him was he had always read his brief. He never went to a meeting where he hadn't read the memo and thought about it. And in this meeting, he was just looking, staring out the window and
And finally, and it was clear he wasn't paying attention to the conversation. And he turned to us and he said, I don't know what Joe's going to do if he loses Boa.
And he was so deeply worried about that. And when Biden came back to the White House after a week of being with his son, and the president learned that he was back in the House, I was in my office, which was between their offices. And I saw him sprint down to the vice president's office. And when I looked down the hallway, I saw them embracing in the
foyer of that office. I think people misunderstand that relationship. It's complicated as relationships between presidents always are. But but there is there is an underlying friendship there. And I think it's very real. OK, let's see, Mike. Yes, sir.
Mr. Michigander will now a refugee to Hollywood. How concerned should Democrats be in Michigan about the Senate and congressional races? And should candidates in Michigan 7, Michigan 8, Michigan 10 be running with Biden or away from him at this point? That governor from Michigan can only do so much. The governor of Michigan can only do so much when the presidential coattails aren't turning people out.
Yeah, it's a great question. I mean, President Biden was keeping it close, but not exactly reassuring numbers. He was in the mid-40s, generally even or down to almost never ahead in Michigan before the debate with all the problems he had then on the economy and age. Now age is bigger.
I haven't seen any data on the Congressionals, but the Senate race there for retiring Senator Stabenow's seat is one where the assumption was the Democrats would pick it up with the Slotkin member of Congress, leaving the 7th District open. If Biden collapses, I think Mike Rogers, a Republican, will win that seat, assuming he wins the primary where he's the frontrunner. So there's another Senate loss that normally would have been a win.
And Michigan is one of the few states that actually has swing congressional races in it. Her open seat in mid-Michigan, the 10th, could be very much in play. I haven't seen any data since the election. I haven't looked too close at the races. But all three of those, Dale Kildee is retiring. So you have another open seat up around Bay City and Flint. He's kind of an institution candidate.
But that one will be very competitive. Even with all the incumbency, it was never a landslide for him there. And then the 10th, closer to Detroit, all of them are in play. And if Biden collapses at the top of the ticket, I can see the Republicans sweeping those. Even with our crazy aluminum foil state party, this election could turn into a real rejection of Joe Biden. I mean, the country's wanted to fire Biden for a while. Biden's making it worse.
So I think there's plenty for Michigan Democrats to worry about right now. Bill, Patrick wants to know, assuming Biden steps aside, what is the process for staffing a presidential campaign by an alternative candidate at this late date? Is it even possible?
It is. I mean, one footnote just on Mike's answer on the campaign, whether congressional or Senate candidates could distance themselves. They can to some degree. Of course, there are many instances where they run ahead of a presidential candidate or behind. But as you guys know, I mean, in a presidential year with a polarized environment, there's a limit to how much you can—you're going to get dragged down. It's really a question, again, of whether the margins they have hold or whether they—
You wrote, right now, they're holding up. But I agree with you that it is tough. And that is the concern, as I mentioned earlier, that the leaders...
the leaders need to worry about. Yeah. The gravitational pull is just too great at some point, you know, as you get to October, if you're losing, you know, it's like a wall of water. It's, you know, your break wall can be five feet high, but if you've got a 10 foot wave coming. Anyway, Patrick, let me answer that question quickly. The it's yes, you can build a campaign quickly. It might not be as perfect as a campaign that has spent a year being built. I've been on the other hand, uh,
I was there in 92 in the Bush White House, George H.W. Bush. His team had run two vice presidential national campaigns, obviously, with Reagan, and then the successful presidential campaign of 88. They got going early. There was no question he was running for re-election. They had it all worked out. Republican governors were doing this and that. It was a disaster. So, I mean, it wasn't.
most of the country wanted change under the campaign. Didn't do a very good job, though, dealing with that, I would say. Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, Clinton gets in in October of 91. It's late. He's got George Stephanopoulos, some hill guy who had worked for what George worked for Gephardt, right? James Carville, who wasn't super well-known in Begala. They'd run the successful 91 Senate race in Pennsylvania, though. Never run a national campaign. Guess who ran a better campaign? So it's a little more pressure, obviously, if you begin in July than if you begin in October or
or December or January, moving to Little Rock to run a campaign for an obscure governor. But there's very little correlation in my experience. I mean, you had this in 07, 08 acts. I mean, Clinton, oh, Clinton people had run many campaigns. The people you were running against had run more national campaigns than I think you and your colleagues had. And you know what? If you have the right message and the right candidate, you can overcome a lot of this organizational stuff.
It's also an opportunity. I mean, if it is Kamala Harris, if that were to happen, she's had a history of bad staff trouble. So she's going to need to bring in a lot of new people and hopefully listen to them. And of course, a new candidate would. But they'll all be there. That's the thing that I dislike so much with some of the narrative. Oh, if it's a bit of a divisive of competition, you know, it's going to be wounds will be open. I mean, every single person who gets asked to work on a Democratic presidential Harris campaign.
or Whitmer or Mark Kelly presidential campaign on October after the convention, let's just say. So what would that be? August 25th, 2024 is going to say yes, right? To stop, to defeat Trump. First of all, I don't think this is going to happen. We've made that clear during the podcast. I think Biden will prevent this from happening, but there will be, I think from donors, there would be a tremendous response and any, any,
responsible person in the Democratic Party, if they were asked, would pitch in here. It would be an all-hands-on-deck thing, because the thing that unifies all Democrats, no matter what faction they come from, is abject fear of the election of Donald Trump. And so everyone would rally to the candidate, whomever that candidate would be. But
We will see how this unfolds, fellas. I think we're headed for the status quo and whatever lies ahead, but we will find out shortly. And Bill Kristol, it's always a pleasure to have you here, brother. You are an admirable person, a great American, put country above party, and we deeply respect you for that. Well, the feeling's mutual, and thanks. I really enjoyed it.
Bill, you and I have been making trouble for decades, pal. It's good to have you here on the podcast and we'll see you all next week. Bye.
