Naked On A Rock (with Jonathan Freedland)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap

In the courtroom, we see Donald Trump for who he is. He's been convicted of 34 felonies, found liable for sexual assault, and he committed financial fraud. Meanwhile, Joe Biden's been working, lowering health care costs and making big corporations pay their fair share.

This election is between a convicted criminal who's only out for himself and a president who's fighting for your family. I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message.

Okay, hello, Hacks. That was a $50 million love letter from the Biden campaign to Donald Trump just up. A little quiz question. Recognize the voiceover? I'll give you the hint, the wire. Joining us is my partner in podcasting crime here, the great David Axelrod. And as you know, David, and I think the audience doesn't know this, is right after we record the show, we slip into our smoking jackets and

switch to French, the language of world diplomacy, and ponder the vast canvas of global affairs. So we're not only going to cover what's going on in American politics today, but we're doing our UK deep dive. And there was only one person we could get in the whole globe, David, right? Yeah, I know. We got to pay more. I don't know. But anyway, Jonathan Freeland, columnist for The Guardian.

co-host or a co-host are you co-host of politics weekly america i'm actually the sole host of politics the sole host all right that's a heavy burden there and uh the co-host of unholy murphy and i have been lucky enough to be on that podcast with you and yonit uh levy of the uh uh

the Israeli journalist. Tell me what station network she's on in Israel. She's a television broadcaster. She is. She's the anchor of the Nightly News on Channel 12 in Israel, and we do on Holy together. A great podcast, both great podcasts. Great to have you to help explain the great pageant of American democracy. Well, it's very good to be with you. Long-time listener, first-time caller, I think is the category.

I mean, yeah, the great pageant of American democracy with our brief little brass band marching behind you because we've got an election going on over here, too. Not quite as loud or as big. Yeah.

So, Murphy, my question to you, you said it's a $50 million buy. And I heard that ad and I wondered how much of it was designed to get into Trump's head before this debate. I would say about $49 million of it. You know, and $50 million is what the campaign says. I don't think they're going to spend that on this ad. I don't. And it is...

How do I put it? I'm having Hillary Clinton campaign shakes because every time they pound on Trump and don't really fix Biden, I think they're missing the strategic problem of the campaign. Now, that said, the way the ad landed that Biden is on your side and Trump's on his own side. Oh, yeah, totally. That's totally. That's where the money is. That is smart. And it took him a while, but they got there. So I can't.

Totally trash is. And by the way, the quiz answer is that's John Doman, who played notoriously corrupt police commissioner Rawls on The Wire. But still, I think does a good job with the voiceover. That's kind of a subliminal bit of messaging. It's kind of subliminal to associate police corruption. Not a great context, but I don't think anybody other than... They love their celebrity announcers. You know, they had De Niro, now him. They're going younger now. They got down to a 70-year-old.

Reaching to the kids. I felt for some time that one of the I mean, we've talked about it a million times on this podcast. One of the distinctions that works in Biden's favor is that Trump is so palpably absorbed by Trump.

and everything he does is for his own benefit. And people recognize that to some degree. And they need to work that. And Biden needs to work that relentlessly in this debate because there's so many areas where, I mean, you know, the whole abortion thing lends itself to that. Trump killing the border bill lends itself to that. His auctioning off, you know, the regulatory authority to the

oil executives lends itself. Hey, wait a minute. I'm not sure I agree on that policy, but keep going. I think you're right politically. I was wondering how long I could go. I'm going to veer into all kinds of things that will get you crossways with me, Murphy, because I think there's a populist economic message for him to deliver here. But absolutely, that's where he should be. And I agree with you. To me, that's center cut for them. If that's where they're going, that's where they should be.

We both know, and Jonathan, you've observed politics a long time, the key to this stuff is telling people things they already think are true, but making it relevant to the choice. Trump is kind of a needy, selfish son of a bitch. Maybe he shouldn't be in the Oval Office. So Biden's finally found a leverage point on Trump. Now he could use a better one on himself. So I love the second half of the spot. It's a step forward.

So all in all, I think let's see how much they spend. But I like it better than the De Niro spot by a mile. But much better. The closing line made me think they're listening to you guys because both of you for ages been saying, say, I'm for you. He's only for himself. It's about time for crying out loud. Yeah. Who does he think he is? President or something?

So we all like that bit. But what did you think of the first off? Because the business of putting Biden's own name on the Trump is a convicted felon message. I actually think the jury put their name on that. Right. They did. They got there first. But I found myself a little ambivalent because my view had been let others call him a convicted felon. Don't put those words in Biden's mouth because.

It plays to that narrative that this was all rigged. It was politically motivated. Biden's pulling the strings. So therefore, let other people say it, but don't put it in your own ad was my first feeling. But, you know, I listen, I agree with I've felt this for a long time. I mean, I I think he's going to get the people who are offended by by Trump's lawlessness and by this conviction and by January 6th.

And they've been saying, you know, that this has been the message they've been delivering for a year, that, you know, when people focus on this stuff, that Trump will win. The people who are hanging out in this race, these unconnected voters, these voters who are not paying attention, they're far more concerned about economic issues than...

and things that affect them. And like I, you know, I believe deeply as Murphy does, because that's why he's in a bunker somewhere in California hiding out in democracy and the importance of our institutions and rules and laws and norms. I believe all that. And I believe this is a really important election for that reason. But that is not what's going to move the people they need to move. Right. That's not the offer.

The Biden guys need to understand that the other half of the country thinks Biden is the threat to democracy. So it's not this big evergreen high lantern that it ought to be that organizes everything. What organizes everything is what are you paying on your car payment? You know, what are you paying for food? And the other thing is Biden is and we've said this before. I'll be quick. Everything in sales and marketing is about what advertising people call the offer.

Right now, Biden's offer is you don't get Trump. It's not enough. What's second term? What do you get from Biden?

But anyway, a step in the right direction, or as the president would say, that's a pretty damn good talkie. And I think he would be. I also think in the Democrat panic-stricken world, it's a crisp enough argument. It feels like a good hit. And I think it'll have a good psychological effect, which is not unimportant in the Dem world now, which is pretty beat down. It motivates the base. There's no doubt about it. It makes them feel like they got a campaign and they're out slugging.

And it frames it pretty well. So we got the big debate coming. Yes. I think people are missing something. I'm curious what you guys think this debate is going to be different. And I, I tip my hat to the, uh, the folks at CNN, uh, you know, pale imitator of NBC where I work, but they do what they can. Um, it's like, I can't remember the pop culture reference, but, uh, uh,

Somebody was talking about the, uh, the inquirer being the only real source. Sure. The New York times, the post, they get lucky once in a while. I can't remember where the movie was from, but anyway, I think CNN with these debate rules has done a good job. Two big things. No audience, uh,

that means you're naked on a rock under the lights. It's all you, you, you. I hope you mean that figuratively. Of course. No, no. Nobody's asking for that. Yeah, we just sold a lot of Better Health, one of our sponsor subscriptions. People are trying to get that out of their head. Good luck. But it's you and the camera. Junkies out there, our hack audience, go Google the old Nixon-Kennedys or Reagan-Carter, where it's just the two of them.

It's a different vibe because when you got a bunch of Roman circus crowd crap going on, it gives you moments to let that rule. Not you. This is you're under the electron microscope and we can argue. And I'd love to hear what you guys think, who it's good or bad for. Second, they're going to have some gorilla on the microphone switch. And when it's not your time, you don't have a mic. That's not a small thing. It means you'll be heard, but you'll be heard way off. Mike, we can tinny and small. Um,

And for Trump, the blustering interrupter, that takes away one of his big tools. So I think this is going to be very different television than these horrible debates we've been having with the circus crowd, the pro wrestling thing. And I think net net, if we have good Biden, we've talked about this. We're rolling the dice. The campaign, the Biden campaign really is.

But I think this is not the best format for Trump. And if you abide bad, Biden won't help him either. Well, what do you all think? Well, I agree with you about the not hearing the interruptions, but it's not like the interruptions are not going to happen. Right. Trump is still going to be doing that and that and Biden will be hearing it even if we the audience can't hear it. So does that get a situation where he's rattled? Trump is in his head and in his face and.

But the audience don't even quite know why. So Biden could suddenly be stumbling and off his game for reasons that the audience haven't completely seen. I mean, I think that is a risk. The Trump people, they...

say he is aware that the first debate in 2020 was a disaster for him because he was constantly interrupting and looked like a complete jackass. I mean, I was looking at that debate. I went back and looked at that debate over the weekend. And there was one moment where Biden says, you know, we have to get smarter. Or maybe he said he has to get smarter about

It must have been COVID policy or something. And Trump said, smart. You're talking about smart. He interrupts him. He says, you said you went to Delaware State. You can't even remember where you went to college and you finished last in your class. Don't tell me about smart. And it's like, wow, who would like a guy like that? And so I think that, you know, actually the Trump guys are

uh, are relieved in some ways that, you know, that there'll be some guardrails there. I think, and, and they think he, he, he will respect that. I think he's going to want to rattle Biden. And I think he's going to do Jonathan, what you suggest. And if I were prepping Biden for this debate, I'd have a guy heckling him constantly, uh, so that he, that he practices talking through the interruptions because he,

uh, you know, if they, they, they've done a lot of packaging lately, Murphy of, uh, uh, you know, scenes that weren't what they seem to be to make Biden look enfeebled. Like the, you know, he's talking to a paratrooper over in Europe and they cut the paratrooper out of the picture and it makes it look like Biden is wandering off on his own. Yeah. So, so, you know,

There's a risk here for him. Every pro comic knows that when you have a heckler who's not mic'd, you just get bigger on your microphone and crush him. Because Trump will be, you know, and another thing, Joe. So you'll be able to read him on the mic a little.

But it's and you're right, it may rattle Biden in the room. It gets down to the fundamental problem, which, you know, actually, you know all about when you have Mr. President who's got the head of, you know, Bulgaria on line two in the vast important issues, at least in their mind. How do you get him to debate prep? Because Biden's got to wrap his head around this, this this mic control thing, because he can use it if he's savvy.

I'm told that after this event today that he's doing, we should talk about the event today he's doing on immigration. He is going he's going down and this the next 10 or eight days or something would be devoted completely to prep and rest, prep and rest, which is the right thing to do. But, you know, and Trump, of course, is not you know, they have people coming in and talking to Trump.

you know, on various, you know, various politicians who are expert on various policies and they're coming in and talking to Trump. But, you know, they don't call it prep. He doesn't have anybody playing Biden. You know, he he Trump, you remember Gene Hackman, you know, one take and stuff. Trump thinks he's an entertainer. He knows how to use the medium.

And he doesn't want to be programmed. And he thinks he's better than everyone advising him at this. So he's not going to listen to them. Oh, totally. He's no Gene Hackman either. I knew Gene Hackman. Gene Hackman was a friend. Well, so here's the thing. I just was going to say that I've got to this point now where so often developments happen where I think, well, that's bad for Trump. And then you second guess yourself because it turns out it's not so bad, like getting convicted in a court or whatever.

Right. So these things keep happening. You would think that would be bad, wouldn't you? You'd think it would be bad. And then you realize why actually it works from say with this case, when these rules came out, I thought, right, that's really good for Biden because the bear pit would be really tough for him where you have to be nimble and quick. He couldn't be as good as that. Now I've got this other worry. One of them is the one we've said, which is that Trump needles him and the audience can't hear it. And so it makes Biden look, you know, as if he's sort of swatting a fly that no one can see. That's bad. But my other worry is,

Had the crowd been there revving Trump up, Trump was more likely to go off the rails to say something completely offensive and egregious and be crazy Trump. Will he now in this more controlled environment be himself more controlled, look a bit calmer and not be the Trump of the Biden and Democrats case? I think they're both capable of becoming a bit unhinged. Whoever thinks they're losing 20 minutes in.

So if one guy can get off a good line or two, the other will react to that by freaking out and doubling it down. I mean, with Trump, there is no controlling. I mean, it just lives in the moment of his insecurity. It reminds me of the old Dennis Miller joke about Charles Manson. You're playing checkers with him. He makes two good moves. You're thinking, oh, that's okay. And then he tries to poke your eye out with the board and strangle you. You know, you just don't know what the trigger is.

And Trump will get triggered if Biden has any good moments at all. Well, and there'll be provocative questions, I'm sure, for both of them from the moderators. And Tapper will be pretty good at grinding away.

I think he'll probably be good at grinding away on both of them. But here's the other concern I would have. Biden needs to show strength. And when he tries to show strength, he often looks like Clint Eastwood chasing kids off the lawn in Gran Torino, you know. And so now you're in a room and are you, you know, if he tries to show strength by shouting,

you know, and by being very severe, does it look weird? No, it looks crazy old man. If they train them right, part of it is theatrical training. Use your mic advantage. That is not a small thing, but it's a tool you have to know how to use. But we will see, and we'll be doing bracket coverage. We're going to talk again before the debate. We'll do a special afterward.

Here it comes, ladies and gentlemen, the two great titans of American democracy. What would be 160 years of combined experience on stage? Exactly. There you go. You know, when you think about it, not that many presidential debates have been that consequential, right? I mean, you know, Reagan-Carter was consequential, but...

There aren't that many that you could point to and say, in the end of the day, that made a big difference.

It's June, and so, you know, maybe it's too early to pronounce this as a very consequential debate. But given the fact that there are such profound questions about both of these guys... Yeah, I think it's big. I think this is a really, really big thing. And we've never had two presidents, and so you've got two guys with records...

that are parallel records, that adds a dimension here that we've never seen before. And you have two guys who, like presidents generally, have not debated for four years because Trump absented himself from the Republican debates and who are going, who, you know, the habit of presidents in these first debates is to become very intensive and into the weeds. So,

So I'm sorry, very defensive and into the weeds. So, you know, this is this is interesting on a lot of different levels. Oh, there are plenty of rocket fuel. The rocket can go up. It can go sideways. It can it can create a hundred yard fireball. So I think we're going to see all that. The other thing Biden's got to get in his head, which will be very hard for him, is to understand that the people at home.

record versus record think Trump is better on running the economy. And if Biden's in a defensive crouch statting statistics all night, Trump wins the tie when he says, you're wrong. You can't run the economy. I can. Heads are going to nod all over the country. But on that point, Mike,

We had the same situation in 2012. People thought Mitt Romney was a successful businessman, had the capability to run the economy. To the day of the election, they thought that. The fight we won was who's going to fight for you in this economy. Which is why we're trying to push Biden there. It's all motive. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor, and we'll be right back.

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I want to get to this immigration thing quickly because then we got to jet across the ocean. They busted a pretty big move, undocumented spouses. What's your take? I'll start with you, Jonathan, on the politics of that. Because one argument is it fuels the Republican immigration fire, which is hurting Biden. On the other hand, I'm sure it tests very well. Sympathetic group of people. What do you think?

Well, it seemed to me that Biden and co and the team thought we just have to give something to progressives and the base who have been asked to suck up a lot of stuff they don't like, including policy on the Middle East and elsewhere. We just have to give them something that makes them feel good about Biden and voting for Biden. And

You know, this as something that is in that bracket of like the dreamers and, you know, a pathway to citizenship. Yeah, it's kind of dreamers 2.0. It's dreamers 2.0. That is good for him with that base. And it seemed to me the timing's important. It's early June. You can get that baked into the base now. And I think the hope will be you don't lose too much with P.

People who are unconvinced by doing things for migrants who will be, you know, focusing in October and the first week of November. So he needed to give them something. And this is it. But you're I mean, anyone else who is saying that this is one of their big issues, they're going to think, well, there's Biden being soft on immigrants again.

Well, I think maybe they're trying to create a softer side of the issue to have something they can exploit. The danger is that people will read this in political terms that you just laid out. I think there's great merit to what he's doing. He's talking about people who've been here for 10 years. He's talking about not dividing families. Most of these people are very, very productive people in our communities and in our economy. But...

I think if the read is he is doing this as an offering to the progressive base, that becomes that's not strength, that's weakness. And, you know, this is where he's gotten into trouble. So I think how it'll be interesting to see what he says today and how he talks about this.

But most people aren't going to understand the details. And there are a lot of people who are going to buy the Republican response, which is this is just an invitation for more people to come. In terms of people reading it as politics, if you do anything in this late in an election year, people are going to read it as politics. Well, it may be that they'll read it as politics, but.

The point is, if they read it as weak politics or as politics sort of surrendering to your base, that accentuates a problem for Biden. I think it's the right thing to do, but, you know— Not a vote winner right now. Well, yeah, exactly, exactly. And I don't think, you know—it'll be interesting to see if it actually has an effect among—

Hispanic voters, because I think there's been a misreading of the immigration issue. I think a lot of the Hispanic voters...

Pretty hardcore. Yes, on the immigration issue. So we'll see how that goes. So are we going to get on that jet plane now, Murphy? Well, we got one more thing I want to touch on quickly. This will give you an opportunity to beat up on Rupert Murdoch. So then we're departing, London calling. So they come out to Hollywood. They do the world's biggest fundraiser with Obama and everybody.

Big money success. I think it was a record setter. 30 million. Yeah. But there's this picture of Obama walking – or video of Obama walking Biden off. And I'm going to surprise you by defending Biden on this one. And Obama's kind of whispering in his ear. We had the Hacks on Tap readers figure it out. It was, don't listen to that Axelrod. He's a pain in the ass. I don't know why I ever did. But –

Biden does appear to be super stiff. And so, of course, I mean, I just saw a Lukavich editorial cartoon on it. It's kind of out there now. One is he's wandering around and doesn't know where to go. On the other, he's listening to Obama. He's not going to walk away quickly or anything. I didn't read it as lost and not knowing what to do. I read it as Biden's stiff gate. But what's your take? Because I think it's out there now.

And I think it might be a problem for him. Listen, this is the insidious thing that they're going to have to fight throughout. Remember back to 2016 and they were working that Hillary isn't physically able to be president. And that became...

So much so that when she had pneumonia on September 11th and got sick at an event or had to leave an event, they spent six hours not telling people what happened because they were so spooked by the idea that she wasn't healthy enough to be president, which was bullshit, to borrow a phrase from Donald Trump. Yeah.

And, you know, they're going to be working this. And, you know, there are concerns. There are more obvious concerns about Biden here. But I'll tell you what happened on that stage. He stopped and he started interacting with people. And I think Obama's thought being a good staff guy in this case was, hey, we just had a good event.

Let's not ball it up by, you know, the extracurriculars after. Let's just go off to the triumphant sound of the band here. And I think that's what happened. I don't think he was providing physical assistance. I don't think he was, you know, explaining to Biden where the exit was. I just think he was saying, hey, dude, let's go. We just had a good show. Yeah, yeah. Declare victory. Big orgy at Jay-Z's later. Off to Hollywood.

The headline the New York Post put on it was, you know, Biden appears to freeze up because there's these six or seven seconds where he's on the video. It looks like he's just still. And what it made me think of is this debate, because if there is a moment in that debate where

where he is still or appears not to react and it can be clipped and put on socials. Biden can be stone-faced now and that can be read a lot of ways. I'm sure the Dems will say thoughtful contemplation, years of experience. Others will, you know, wait, I don't know. It's, it's the television age, but no, I don't know. I'm saying, I mean, I'm not sure that's what Dems say. I think that concerns Dems too. Yeah. So he's going to need to be animated and interacting and

moving to avoid exactly this kind of story and this kind of clip on social media. I know the folks who are prepping him, you know, Ron Klain, Michael Sheehan, there's guys I've worked with for a long time. They're pros. And, you know, the question isn't whether they're telling him the right thing to do. The question is, does he internalize it? And that's always the question with every candidate. Do they listen? Okay, let's cue the International Orchestra.

I think our listeners can tell that we hate nothing more than paying any money for music. So everything is public domain. That's from 1903. I think he was saluting there, Murphy. Exactly. Can I sit down yet?

Can I, can I, am I allowed to, I'm still standing from that. Yes, yes. You may be seated. Yes, yes. On July 4th, ironic, ironic date, there's going to be a UK general election. So our, our question for you, Jonathan, is what the hell's going on over there? I remember you, you took me out to dinner in London a few with some, some great ink-stained riches a few months ago and,

And a big debate because you get to pick your election there. I mean, kind of when you call it. And that's a big strategic question. The conventional wisdom was that in battle, Tory Prime Minister Sunak Rishi was going to wait and try to get his numbers up. I was arguing, go early, take the offense.

Apparently he did it, but he didn't seem to have much of a day two plan. Bring us up to date. What's going on? Yeah, it's another guy listening to you. Let him down easy, though, because he's a Tory, okay, at heart. So this is a tough time for him. I'm a card-carrying member of the Tory party. I paid the 20 quid. You know, I wanted to vote in the electorate. They wouldn't let me. That may explain their problems. I don't know.

Yeah, well, so it's absolutely right that in this crazy system here, one of the two runners in the sprint gets to fire the starting gun. So it's the incumbent prime minister gets to choose when the election falls. But you're supposed to point the gun at the other guys, not yourself. That's the Chicago way. Not at both of your own feet.

So Sunat decided to go much earlier than expected. Why? Because I think he thought the numbers were only going to get worse for him, that he had had that day some good inflation numbers. They were back in the kind of range of 2% ish.

There was some fear that they would only go in the other direction later. And he's got this signature policy, which is we're back to migration. The people who had made crossings on the crossing the English Channel on small boats were

seeking refuge or asylum in Britain. He has instituted a policy, inherited it from Boris Johnson, but kept it, which is anyone seeking asylum in the UK can be put on a plane and sent to Rwanda, a third country, somewhere in Africa that people basically don't want to go.

uh and his policy was to put people on those planes they hadn't happened yet not a single plane had taken off because the courts at different stages had said this violates all kinds of human rights i think his worry was if he waited any longer the policy was going to be voided and proven to have been a failure that never took off and so better for him to say my policy is going to bear fruit in a

Somebody who's dealt a very bad hand, who thought it can only get a little bit worse. Now's the moment. Plus your point, Murph, which is I want to seize the initiative. But he did it in a way. I mean, everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. Well, you're standing out in a thunderstorm announcing it. Have they heard of advance over there? Is there some cultural thing that, you know, it's just I was stunned by that. I stunned. I mean, everyone who's in professional politics just sat watching that with their head in hands, unable to believe.

Yes, the tradition is a prime minister comes out in front of 10 Downing Street on the street with a little lectern and calls the election, announces the election. But it was...

pouring with rain that afternoon. Everyone thought, do it inside, you know. But instead, he spotted a little moment where there was a break in the rain. He comes out. He's been talking for three seconds when the heavens open. Talk about a metaphor. I mean, it couldn't have been worse symbolically. And the suit got, you know, rainier and wetter. And meanwhile, some protester on the street was playing an old Labour election anthem, drowning him out. The optics...

The optics were a disaster. And since then, unbelievably, if anything, it has got even worse to the point where you're thinking, is this a campaign or is this performance art? Like he's trying to show what does the worst possible campaign look like? The low watermark for him was reached on D-Day when he went over to Normandy to stand with the veterans for what will be their sort of farewell. You know, these are people who at the youngest are 98, 99 years old.

He was there for the opening part of the ceremonies. But then the big photo call, you know, the family shot appears with Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and David Cameron, Britain's foreign secretary, former prime minister. Where's Rishi Sunak? It turned out he'd gone back to London to pre-record a TV interview, pre-record. It wasn't like a live thing.

And he has that just finished him off because patriotism, the military wants to veterans. If that made you think, is this like a Max Bialystok campaign where he's got some kind of financial interest in losing badly? And the Labour Party has been very, very smart. I mean, Labour was was in a bad place and Keir Starmer took over and they've been very, very.

cautiously navigating that sort of center-left terrain. They're not taking great risks. They're just navigating true and straight, and they look like they're on their way to a big victory, which runs counter to the trend in much of the rest of Europe. And, you know, we'll see what happens here. But you see in these EU elections, the far right has been on the move.

The thing about the Tories in Britain right now is they don't really have an appeal to anybody. They don't have an appeal to the right-wing populists.

You know, Sunak is certainly not someone who speaks to them. They don't have, you know, they look incompetent. Well, they've got a breakaway. You know, they've got Reform UK, which is now tying the Tories in the national polling. Yeah. Which is kind of a populist. It's kind of RFK Jr. from the right, independent, you know, anti-systemic rage candidate who's doing pretty well.

Yeah, I mean, he's actually, I think, the Farage parallel, and he's a big admirer of Donald Trump. I mean, he's the sort of Trumpy candidate in this race, Nigel Farage, perennial candidate, the sort of godfather of Brexit.

Uh, he's right in there as this populist from, uh, the right and exactly the stories are so badly squeezed because if you want nationalist populism, he's not right wing enough for you. And if you don't want it, then he's definitely too right wing for you. But, you know, often you guys talk about whether or not 2024 in America is going to be a change election. Uh,

This is beyond that. What I'm seeing is a level beyond that, which is a punishment election. It's a repudiation election. A whole lot of voters are so sick of the Tories for 14 years that they just want to see them beaten.

I mean, if you'll forgive me a tiny story, my late father was an old school Fleet Street reporter. He once had to do doorstep, ring on the doorbell of the late Laurence Olivier, the great actor. He did spend five hours ringing the doorbell, trying to get a quote. At midnight, he handed over, the shift ended, a new reporter took over. One minute after midnight, the window opened up and Laurence Olivier himself poured a bucket of water over the reporter who'd taken over.

from my dad. That's who Rishi Sunak is, right? Because he's being, the bucket of water that was ready for Boris Johnson or Liz Truss is landing on him. He is being blamed for all the mistakes, the chaos, the madness,

Yes, Brexit. But Liz Truss, who crashed the economy in 44 days, you know, outlasted by lettuce. People just think they're done and want to see the back of them. They just want to punish a Tory. He's the fly. Well, let's live vicariously here. Can we just, though, can we take a kind of expand out for...

folks who aren't Anglophiles like Churchillian Mike Murphy. You know, it's so interesting to hear you talk about the race, about migration, about inflation. I mean, these are sort of universal stories right now globally in our politics. What are the implications, if any, of

for sort of geopolitics and what should americans take away from this election or is it just what you say which is they've been around too long and the i think there's a lot of that clock has run out on them they do have an immigration war they do have economic issues where the leader seems disconnected i mean i think sunak has a lot of biden's problems yeah i mean i think

If Labour win as big as the polls are saying, and by the way, they are predicting an absolute thumping win, huge, bigger majority than Blair got, bigger than I think has ever been seen in modern British political history if the polls bear out. I think if he wins and if Biden wins,

People will say, OK, the tide of nationalist populism, even if it hasn't been completely turned, can be halted. It can be done. That will be the narrative. If not, if Trump wins, I think people will say, OK, this was an outlier and it was to do with the fact that the right had been in charge earlier.

for so long in Britain. So what happens in France is very relevant here too. This British election falls between... Another early election. Another surprise snap election. A snap election. This falls between the two rounds of those French elections and they may interact with each other. But I think the long-term picture is a slightly pessimistic one, which is I think Labour will win and win pretty big if these polls are right.

But the result could be a wipeout of the Conservatives and their replacement by a quite sort of Trumpist, nationalist, populist, far-right party who literally replaced the Conservatives as the main force, main opposition. And therefore, in five years' time, you could be looking at a Le Pen-style—you could have Le Pen as president in France—

And Farage, a Le Pen-style leader as prime minister in Britain. And there you've got the far right gaining in Germany, the three big countries in Europe. Yeah, that's grim AFD. One of the things that I think is, you can see it in this race, and it's one of the things that plagues Biden.

is there is a real fundamental hostility, anti-institutional hostility out there, hostility to government, hostility to all institutions that is, you know, obviously Trump has capitalized on.

on that. And, you know, Biden is the ultimate institutionalist in many ways. He spent 50 years in these institutions. The labor part, I mean, Keir Starmer is hardly a anti-institutional candidate. So, you know, that sets up

Unless the Labor Party responds to some of those fundamental concerns that people have, economic concerns, controls the migration problem. I mean, Starmer's running the absolute content-less campaign. He's like, well, I'm not the last crazy left-wing kook Corbyn. We threw him out of the party. And I'm not Rishi Sunak. And hey, I'll see you tomorrow, you know, counting down days to the election.

then are actually have to govern, which will be interesting. But in the candidate versus candidate fight right now, where the country, as you say, for all these reasons, wants to punish the Tories and, and Sunak, you know, I, I think I would like him in real life, but he's kind of a skinny guy with a briefcase, you know, he, he's easy to do. And a short guy too. And, and, and none of those cheap shots, send your letters to David Axelrod or Randy Newman. But I want to play a little sound. I've got a little sound from the election.

So here's last week's debate. This was one of the big soundbites that came out between Labour candidate Keira Starmer and Prime Minister Tory Rishi Sunak. The NHS is broken. Be honest with us. How long will it take to fix it?

As Janet knows and everyone knows, the NHS is still recovering from Covid. We went through the best part of two years where the NHS couldn't conduct all the treatments it normally would and it is going to take time to recover from that. But we are now making progress. The waiting lists are coming down. But what Keir Starmer didn't mention to you, which you did, Julie... They're now 7.5 million. He says they're coming down. And this guy says he's good at maths. Yeah, they are now coming down.

They are now coming down. 7.2 when you said you'd get them down. 7.2 million. They're now 7.5 million. I'd like you to explain how they're coming down. Because they were coming down from where they were when they were higher. And they're now on their way down. They are down, right?

Yes, because the NHS was impacted by industrial action. Anyway, there you go. So that actually is a cautionary note for Biden because, you know, if Biden decides to do what he had been doing, which is to defend the economy and tell people why they should be feeling better than they should, that's a disaster for him. So he should take note of that. Okay, gentlemen, we will be back in a minute, but we have to pay a few bills.

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So here's my question, and I'm going to play some sound as well that will set it up. I did. I was in your hometown of Detroit, Mike Murphy, and I talked to the mayor there and I asked him about the state of Michigan, which is pivotal in our own election and the the issue of the Middle East. And this is what he had to say.

We have a huge Arab American population, but it's more than that. You know, the Arab American population has been here for decades. And if you're under 30 in southeastern Michigan, you grew up with Arab American friends. Ramadan is a celebration. You bed to your friend's house for the iftar dinners when they break the fast. And we have a whole lot of people in this area who have lost relatives in Gaza. The pain that your friends are feeling, you are feeling.

And under the age of 30 in this state right now, we have a lot of people feeling pain. And that defines a lot of the feelings toward the president. And I'm hopeful that we're going to get hostages freed and a permanent ceasefire, which we need.

now. I'm hoping we get there, hoping we solve these aid issues. But right now, it is a very much a defining issue here in southeastern Michigan. He's a smart Paul. I've known him a long time. And I think he's right on the money in South Wayne County, Dearborn, which is what he's talking about. Yeah. So Jonathan, this obviously has import to American politics.

Tell us what you think the likelihood is that there will be a resolution by the time the election rolls around and there will be a sense of closure, at least, or progress or something that would reduce people's sense of pain and frustration.

And maybe touch on, it appears the Israeli war cabinet is cracking up a little. So Israeli politics are a bit entering turmoil now. They are. And Netanyahu has dissolved the war cabinet. It won't even meet anymore because the two...

I put them big air quotes around that. But the two centrist politicians who sat around that table, they have their parties bolted from the coalition and gone back into opposition. My view of this remains sort of what it is, which is not that hopeful. If you were talking about closure and resolution, I don't think we'd get that in time for Election Day in the United States. Instead, I think probably...

The most you can hope for is that it goes on to a lower level and it goes a bit quieter and it's not on the front pages every day. The reason I say that is in terms of an agreement, I don't think you've got a buyer who wants to buy and a seller who wants to sell. I mean, in the form where you have Yahya Sinwa, the leader of Hamas,

who only wants a deal if he gets to spin it as a victory. And for that to happen, he needs Israel to say, the war is over, we're pulling out, we're not coming back. And you have Netanyahu, a leader who does not want that outcome, an end to the war, because if that happens, he then has to face the day of reckoning that he has been postponing all this time, double reckoning, won an election, which polls show he's now doing better in, by the way, but still not in a good place.

And secondly, literally a day of reckoning in the form of judgment, you know, state commission of inquiry. Like Trump. I mean, they want to put that off. And so he has a very narrow political interest in this continuing, the country being in war mode, can't change leader now, we're fighting a war.

And Sinhua, who actually thinks this is working for him. We had those leaked messages reported in the Wall Street Journal from Sinhua saying, this works great for us. The more casualties there are on our side, we're winning the PR war around the world. So I just don't see in these two parties to this conflict, you need to have both to come into alignment and want a deal. I'm not seeing that. I think instead what you might see is things going on to a quieter...

lower level of conflict where it's not on page one on the homepage of every website. And that maybe helps Biden in places like Michigan. Netanyahu's headed here next month just to jump into the pool of American politics. What is his objective here and what is the likely political impact of that? Because it's the Republicans who've been driving this

And they want to drive a wedge, you know, among Democrats. I think Netanyahu's going to play the GOP card. I think Ron Dermer, the people around him, think Trump's going to win.

So he's going to start building that as part of his exit strategy to have a friend here, I think. Although Trump, as you know, Jonathan Trump, was exercised that Bibi acknowledged Biden's victory very quickly. And he's never apparently, according to everything I see, he's never really forgiven him for that.

No, it's one of the interesting things I think about Trump that he's in that sense, not that political in the sense he keeps grudges for a long time. He doesn't just bury them and move on. So he has not forgiven Netanyahu for his recognition of Biden's victory in 2020. Doesn't like him, has spoken about him in colourful language. And so they have not buried that hatchet. And that's why I think Mike might be right that Netanyahu will be looking to ingratiate himself with the incoming restored election.

Trump court and therefore sees this as a way to do it. I mean, you've got to remind yourself that this has been a huge strategic change that's happened under Netanyahu. Israel always prioritised bipartisan support in the US before. Netanyahu was the first one to think, no, let's be political about it and make it a

where we play, you know, Republicans against Democrats. He did it when he went over at John Boehner's invitation to Congress during the Obama presidency, speaking to one side of the aisle and making it a political issue. You know, Netanyahu's critics in Israel say he's thrown away what had been a massive asset for Israel, which was... I think they're right. Yeah, bipartisan consensus. Across the aisle support, bipartisan support in the United States. And instead, he's turned it into an issue where it's a Republicans-only issue.

With Trump, you have that feral intelligence where everything's transactional. So he's thinking, all right, I buck up BB. That's bad for Biden. More war, bad for Biden. Ask the mayor of Detroit. I need to win Michigan to win. Biden is doing better-ish among the terrible polling in the metal-bending swing states than he is in the sunny ones. The pop states, as I call them, versus the soda states.

And so stirring the ship, so to speak, and backing up BB is very much in Trump's narrow political interest. So I would bet dollars to donuts. That's exactly what Trump will do. And there are Republican strategists who think that, uh,

The same pressures that Biden has in Dearborn, Michigan and places like that are in the progressive campuses are good for the Republicans because the backlash is votes. We can move Democrat Jewish votes over. So in the raw, selfish, short term politics of it, which frankly don't care much about Israel. Yeah.

trouble is good and I think Trump will try to amplify it. And it goes to the thing you guys have talked about all the time, which is weakness. It casts Biden as weak because again and again, he has called for this war to end and it doesn't end. So he's, you know, King Canute standing on the shore, telling the waves to go back and they don't go back. That's the Republican message. The world's out of control. Biden's not in command. They, they want to, they want chaos. Just quickly, David, though, to be sympathetic to Biden, uh,

It's very hard for Biden to change an equation where Hamas wants civilian casualties. I mean, that is no president, and it's very hard to change. I think Jonathan framed it up

Exactly right. I don't think either Senoir or Netanyahu are in a big hurry to resolve this. And Biden is. And not just for the political reasons. I'm one who believes that Biden actually does feel a solicitude for these poor kids we see on the screen all the time who break your heart in Gaza, even as he's very supportive of Israel. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

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If you have a question for the hacks, we are easy to get a hold of. You just send us an email, hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. You can even email us an audio recording you can do in your smartphone. Just keep it short. We're the bloviators around here. 20, 25 seconds and use your name. Or if that's too complicated,

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773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. And leave us a message. Yes. And thanks again to the AI people for providing that very, very lifelike voice of Mike Murphy. I haven't been here in years. You say that every week and now people are going to believe you.

Because you say it every week. You say the AI joke every week. I know. Well, they don't think I'm here either. All right. Via the miracle of voicemail, our first question for Axe is from John.

Hi, Hacks. This is John from Buffalo here. My question has to do with the recent special election in the Ohio 6th Congressional District where the Republican candidate won fairly handily but ran far behind what was expected. Is this a case of voter apathy for a June special election in a district with very little drama, or is there something more going on here? Thanks a lot. Bye.

That's a really good question, John, and one that all the political pundits and prognosticators are pondering. This has been a trend. You're right. That candidate won handily, but

But far and away less than Trump carried the district and previous Republicans have carried the district in recent years. And that's been going on since the midterms, in both the midterms and special elections. Republicans are consistently underperforming. And the real question is, is this an artifact of the basis of the party's shifting? And does it have predictive value to a presidential election that

generally draws a lot more participants. Right now, the Democratic base has become more college-educated voters and seniors who are what we call in the business, Murphy, four of four voters,

people who show up for every election, and the less connected voters are the ones who are the Republican base. So when you look at research, it suggests that the larger the turnout, the better for Trump. We don't know the answer to this yet. But I think the general presumption now is if there's a— and this turns everything on its head from what we've known in the past— if the turnout is lower, probably—

benefits Biden. If it's larger, maybe, maybe not. So we'll see. So I hesitate to read too much into it. There are people like Simon Rosenberg, who's making a living out there, being the Mr. Sunnyside up and telling Democrats this is in the bag and nothing to worry about based on numbers like this. I'm less convinced now, but we shall see.

Murphy. Yes. Someone named Susan, and it's not my wife, sent in a question, and here it is. Given the decreased presence of Trump signs and flags in southern coastal areas, on boats and in yards, she must be from there. The disengagement of strong Trump-supporting women in my community and family, and the absence of pro-Trump content on my social media feed, do you believe there will be lower voter turnout in the Gulf states

Gulf Coast states potentially impacting the upcoming election outcomes. And let me just broaden it out, Murphy. Do you think, apropos to the last answer I gave, will Trump end up bringing out the same kind of turnout and will he get the same kind of support from Republicans that he got in the past? Well, we don't know yet. You know, I hate to give, I'll give a better version of your answer. Oh.

The cake isn't cooked. We have a lot of campaigning yet to happen. Do I believe this is going to be a tragically low turnout election? No. I think it's going to be presidential year normal. The question is at the edges. And the edges that count are going to be African-American voters in Detroit, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee.

If there's one turnout factor I'm really watching, it's that. Right now, the polling's not so good. I think there might be a revert to mean that would be good for Biden. If not, he's going to lose Georgia and very well may lose Michigan and the presidency. As far as Republican women are concerned in the Gulf Coast, I would not bet against a decent Trump turnout in Alabama, in Mississippi, you know, Louisiana. Those are in the bag.

And turnout doesn't matter there because the electoral college vote is counted whether turnout or not. I just saw a poll in L.A. County where Biden, it's 11 million people. It's base Democrat. Biden's numbers are terrible. It's favorable, unfavorable here. But he's going to carry California. The question is the Florida panhandle and Georgia.

And Georgia in particular. So I think, as David mentioned, there's this migration of college-educated white voters who used to be Republican heading over for cultural scary Trump reasons to the Democrats. But there are less frequent voters, blue-collar voters, including Latino men and African-American men who have been moving, particularly Latino men and white high school graduates, moving over to Trump.

So we got to have some campaign. We have to have some debates. We have to see what kind of Trump and Biden we have at the end of this thing to know. But when in doubt on turnout, bet on normal and bet on nothing.

The idea of the low turnout Biden wins theory, I think is totally wrong. The question is, will it be material outside African-Americans? Will enough one out of fours show up who are not college educated and lean toward Trump? We've seen those surges for Trump before. Look at Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania. Look at some of the collar counties around Tampa. I think Trump will under index what he did last time, but I'm not sure how much.

Jesus, Murphy, I think it's election day now. You went on there so long on that question and didn't answer it, really. Well, I answered it the way you answered it, which is we don't know yet. Because there's so many, you know, if Biden can't find the debate stage, I got an answer the next day. Well, the good news is that you gave Jonathan Friedland enough time to ponder his answer to a question from Tracy, which is the first debate is around the corner.

How should moderators frame their questions for each of the candidates to make clear the significance of the choice before us,

What could have the most impact on the voters? And what would you ask if you were moderating? By the way, these people must be journalists who send these questions in because they always pack three or four questions in one. I know they do. Well, they're learning just like us, when in doubt, go longer, more words. They've gone to the Axelrod College of run-on sentences. There's a lot packed in there. I mean, I would quite like to see the moderators not, you know, just let the candidates speak

keep on going on and on and on and padding, but actually jumping in and being quite forensic. It's a particular style, British broadcast interviews, maybe to excess, but they will interrupt and just say, no, no, that isn't the question I asked you. This is the point. But what is the one question you think they should ask? Well, I would quite like to hear Trump ask, why is it that everyone pretty well who worked for you is not voting for you?

I would like to just hear how he answers that. And I would put some specifics on it. I would name names, you know, start talking about Rex Tillerson and the others and just say, what is it they know about you working close up with you that means one after another refuses to support you?

And just to hear how he deals with that. Yeah, I think if they ask that question, you're going to see a lot of orange smoke come out of his ears. Well, we'd like to see that, wouldn't we? I mean, that would be doing a public service. We want to see that. I'd pay money for that. That would sell some tickets. I mean, then the other thing I would say is to Biden.

You keep saying this is such an important election for the sake of American democracy. If it is so important, isn't it just too risky to put all of that on any 82-year-old candidate? I'm not making a personal comment about you, Mr. President.

But if it's that important that the fate of the republic is riding on this, isn't it too risky to put this on the shoulders of an 82-year-old man? That's a good question, too. And, Murphy, bonus answer here. If you had one question to ask, what would it be? And don't make it about—I know you want to make it about electric vehicles, but—

Give me another one. No. How long have you been voting in Chicago, Mr. President? No, no. I would say, why have you decided to bet democracy on your political career, not the good of the country? Are you incapable of taking the larger picture at 82 years old? So my question to both of them would be, what's the worst mistake you made as president? Or what's the one decision you most regret?

Well, Trump would say, you know,

not testifying in my trial to call out the liberal class. I think it's a tougher question for Biden, who has a very hard time with those kinds of questions. In any case, we'll see what is asked and we'll see how they answer and we'll know in nine days and we'll talk about it more next week. But Jonathan Friedland, it's a pleasure to have you come back anytime. You're a Brit with great insights into American politics and you've educated us along with Mike Murphy, who follows British politics closely.

on your election, which is not inconsequential to us over here. But great to have you. No, great to be with you. I've enjoyed it a lot. Thanks. Hands across the sea, my friend. Thank you so much. So Robert Gibbs, our buddy, has taken on a very huge position as vice president of communications at Warner Brothers Discovery, parent of CNN. So I guess I'm working for Robert now. Ha ha ha!

You know, he can finally afford that Mar-a-Lago membership he's always wanted. So now he's Moneybag Gibbs, and we are very proud of him. And what a great hire for those guys, because they've had some communication bumps. More on that next week. We have to clarify his status on Hacks on Tap, I suspect. We're going to make an equal offer, and

And then he's going to laugh. And then we'll sort this out. But we're rooting for our pal Robert. We know he's going to do a great job. And we'll have more news about the evolution of all that in our pre-debate show coming up. And we'll talk to you guys next week. We sure will. And we're going to go out on a little sound here. A salute to our cousins over in the UK. A great speech from the late, great Bob Hoskins chewing out a couple of Americans. So we're going to take our lumps now for besmirching the great tradition of British politics.

I'll tell you something. I'm glad I found out in time just what a partnership with a pair of wankers like you would have been. A sleeping partner's one thing, but you're in a fucking coma. No wonder you got an energy crisis your side of the water. That's British.

We used to have a bit more vitality, imagination, Chatter the Dunk Kirk spirit, know what I mean? The days when Yanks could come over here and buy up Nelson's column, and an Arleigh Street surgeon, and a couple of windmill girls are definitely over. Now look... Shut up, you long streak of paralysed piss. What I'm looking for is someone who can contribute to what England has given to the world. Culture, sophistication, genius.

A little bit more than an hot dog. Know what I mean? We're in the common market now. And my new deal is with Europe. I'm going into partnership with a German organisation. Yeah! The Krauts! They've got ambition. Know how. And they don't lose their bottle. Look at you. The Mafia. I've shit them.