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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
Hello, fellow hacks, and welcome to this week's show. Look, we've got a lot to discuss. And when I say a lot, I mean a lot. I just want to go through a couple of things that have happened since the hacks convened and taped a week ago, right? The Arizona Supreme Court, using a law from 1864, not a typo, outlawed nearly every abortion in the state of Arizona. Big implications nationally, big implications in one of the swing states.
Donald Trump tried numerous times to delay the trial, which we'll get to in a second, in New York City, a hush money trial. Through fits and starts, the House passed some legislation, surveillance legislation, more on the House in a second. Speaker Johnson found it friendlier to travel to Mar-a-Lago than hang out with the Freedom Caucus in Washington.
Speaker Johnson and the former president held a press event in Mar-a-Lago where they talked about introducing legislation to make it illegal for non-citizens to vote. If you're keeping track at home, it is currently not legal in any of the 50 states for non-citizens to vote. We have a new New York Times poll that we'll discuss. Obviously, big foreign policy news. Iran attacked Israel over the weekend.
Jury selection started in the aforementioned Donald J. Trump trial in New York, six to eight week trial, expected to have a verdict sometime around Memorial Day. And another big thing in Washington happening this week, Speaker Johnson is finally going to bring to the floor aid for Israel, aid for Taiwan and aid for Ukraine. And last but not least, the Golden Bachelor.
is getting divorced. We are going to cover all of those weighty topics with a couple of people today, a couple of guests, because Murphy and Axelrod, well, they worked hard one week and now they're all on vacation. But joining us with airs, longtime esteemed GOP pollster, and joining him, Jonathan Martin, uber columnist for Politico.
We'll discuss his latest on why Trump isn't a lot. He joins us from the battleground state of Michigan, which we got to get that daylight in. Yes, sir. Welcome to the show. We've got a lot to chew on. Thanks. Great. Great to be with you.
I want to just start with your pollster. Where is this race? And I want to bring it in because the New York Times poll came out over the weekend. Instead of Trump leading by four, which was the February poll, it's now Trump leading by one. And before you tell me it's margin of error stuff, which I get, the last time the New York Times came out with a poll and showed Donald Trump up by four, like the world, the light started to dim in the world. Everybody, you know,
sought higher ground and cover. Where is this race right now, Witt? If the election were held today, I still believe Donald Trump would win by a landslide in the electoral college. Now, Jay Mard has reminded us that Trump is far from a lock and nobody is a lock in an evenly divided country where 70% of the people don't want either one of these guys.
But the New York Times poll national poll could very well have been driven by Democrats coming home in California and New York, which will have no effect whatsoever on any of the seven swing states. I will believe that Joe Biden's back in it.
when I see him ahead in at least four of the seven swing states. But until then, I still think he's the underdog and Trump's the favorite. I agree with that. Margin of error stuff, right? Biden's approval is up two points. Trump's is down two points. There are some good numbers in here, and there does feel like in the last few weeks we've had movement around
Toward Biden. Now, now, now it tells us not to get too excited about that. You're in Michigan. You've been to a bunch of these battleground states. What do you think? I think Whit's right. The election was held today. Trump certainly would win. He's got an advantage in the key, the key states that are going to decide the electoral college. I think Biden's stabilized, certainly with his own party since the State of the Union speech.
And I think, you know, Biden is helped by more sunlight on Trump. I mean, it's pat to say this, but it's also true. If this election is about Donald Trump, it's certainly going to favor Joe Biden. And the opposite of that is true. And I think every day where Trump is the biggest storyline of the day is good for Joe Biden.
This is nothing new, by the way, Robert. I remember talking to Republicans in 2018, Trump's first midterm, and them saying, when the storylines about Trump and Trump's latest outburst, it's bad for us. When it's about the other guys, it's good for us. So this is the sort of story of our times.
And that's the key for Biden. Can he make this for the next six months as much about do you want Trump back in your living room for four years as do you want the old man to stick around for four more years? So you're not buying a lot in this New York Times poll about movement. Again, I know it's small numbers, but you're not. And maybe what you're also trying to tell us is you're just not. You said it clearly. You're just not seeing it in any state movement.
that's going to decide this race. Is that because we haven't seen a lot of battleground polling recently, or you're just not convinced? No, I believe there's movement. He did a fine job at the State of the Union, and I think that energized some Democrats nationally. It's just that...
I'm not going to really believe their significant movement until I see movement in the seven states that are going to decide this. Now, that said, it seems this seems stable, you know, seems like an equal balance. You know, 70 percent don't want either one of these guys involved.
But I can't help but think with two octogenarians running and all kinds of stuff going on. I mean, you just read a list of what's happened in the last week. This thing is ultimately going to be decided by events that haven't happened yet. So right now, Trump would win. But who knows what's going to happen between now and November. Jonathan, you did a little expectation setting in your column this week. Walk us through that. You said...
Despite both your prediction and Whit's prediction, that Trump's not a lock in this. And I think I said in the last time we saw this New York Times poll, and it was four points, I think a lot of us thought, I certainly believed, anybody could win this race. This still is a winnable race for either one of these candidates, right? I just think the conventional wisdom stock got overheated that Trump's a lock.
that somehow this thing's over. And I think, Robert, especially the kind of the elites left and center left places, the publishing world, sort of obviously the political class, the diplomatic world, which is taking their cues from, you know, other elites, just going on the assumption that this thing's in the bag. And it's not. It wore a
profoundly divided country. This thing's at the margins. And Donald Trump is perfectly capable of reminding Americans why, you know, ever since he won a minority election in 2016, he and his party have been rejected time and time again. I think there's this tendency to portray Trump as this political colossus that, by the way, isn't just from the MAGA world. I think Democrats are all afraid of that, too, when, like,
his track record isn't that great actually in general elections and that's why so many Republicans were dreading the possibility of nominating him again because he literally was probably the worst contender against Joe Biden they had in the primary because obviously Trump is so defined in his own right so
I just feel like this thing's gotten out of hand, that it's cooked right now. And so the column that I wrote was sort of like trying to unwrap why that's the case. And certainly the abortion case in Arizona, issue-wise, is a stark reminder of part of the challenge that Trump has faced going forward. And let's dive into a little bit of that because, you know, I think both of you mentioned that –
While the race is certainly winnable, one of the things that Donald Trump tends to do is block out the sun, soak up all the coverage. And right now, right now he's in a courtroom as we select a jury in New York for his hush money trial. But last week started out with he made a pronouncement on abortion. Leave it up to the states after lots of different things popping around.
And that, I think, aged for about 24 hours before it landed right with a thud on his doorstep. Again, go through the polling on this a little bit. I mean, abortion is an issue that was decided decisively at the Supreme Court, but the American people in a very different place on this. How scared are Republicans that every few weeks something like this pops up and Arizona is a big, big stone in the water?
Robert, having the states decide is a bad option. It's just better than all the other options because you are not going to get 60 votes in the Senate for anything.
As far as a national standard goes, there is no possible way in this diverse country that you will come up with an abortion solution, an abortion policy that's accepted as legitimate in both Massachusetts and Mississippi. It's just not going to happen.
So having the states wrestle with it is, I think, ultimately the least bad option. Now, there's going to be a lot of wrestling because Roe versus Wade put off that state-by-state wrestling by half a century. And you're going to see some blowups like you have in Arizona where the states will ultimately have to decide where they're going to come down.
But the bottom line is, if you're talking about abortion, the Democrats are helped. If you're talking about immigration, the Republicans are helped. And both of those are huge issues in Arizona. Jonathan, we know how, to Witt's point, we know how Mississippi and Massachusetts are going to fare in this election, right? You're in another state that starts with them, Michigan, right? You know, what people are seeing in Arizona, well, Arizona in and of itself,
Big swing state for the presidential race. Very important Senate race. Republicans blocked repealing the 1864 law in a couple days afterwards. You know, Witt says, and I think he's right, if you're talking about abortion, Republicans are not in a good place.
How potent is this? Does this wipe out economic numbers? Does this supersede some of that? I think inflation and the border is still a real challenge for Biden that is going to be paramount for a lot of folks. But this does offer Biden, I think, what is his most galvanizing issue for a couple of reasons. One is
It's that rare issue, Robert, that I think is equally powerful for what you could call high information and low information voters. People who are super engaged in politics, watch cable television, know all the names of the staffers and the candidates. You know, they're fired up about this. I think also for people who barely follow politics at all, the idea of sort of taking away what they see as a right is,
is a sort of motivating issue. And I think the reason for that is because we're at a moment in American life where everything else is tilting toward, you know, more freedom, more laissez-faire living, right? You can walk down K Street in Washington, D.C., smoking a big fat joint to your heart's content. That's fine. You can gamble on every game every day on your phone. That's just fine. Obviously, there have been huge breakthroughs.
with same-sex rights, then all of a sudden, Robert, this is taking away. So I think it's jarring because of the sort of backdrop that we're talking about in American society. That's why it's so potent politically. And, you know, to pick up on what Whit said,
The problem with saying that you defer to the states, let's move right on, is when you defer to the states and the states decide to uphold a 19th century law, that's sort of the downside of leaving out to the states. But the states can decide, and they can decide the ways they're going to create new problems for you politically.
But, Robert, it's important to note that these 15-week national bans which are being proposed aren't really 15-week laws because they allow all the red states to keep their more restrictive bills or more restrictive policies, and they only really apply to the blue states that have less restrictive policies.
So there's not a Democrat in the world who's going to vote for that national ban. It's just not going to happen. Right. And look, we've got a pretty good example not far from Washington that the 15-week ban is not in the states a panacea, as we watched Glenn Youngkin kind of push a lot of chips into the middle of the table and have that lose. Jonathan, it's a fascinating point that you make.
on the low information, high information voters. I saw Witt nodding his head as a pollster. But before we get, I want Witt to sort of, because I think that's a fascinating point. We talk about, we're all obsessed with who's paying attention religiously and who's going to pay attention in the last month of this thing and how will that intersect. I will mention also, too, when you said laissez-faire, I thought you were going to say
Laissez les balles tournées. And I'm just surprised you went with the economic term and not the motto of New Orleans. You were shaking your head about low information, high information. Oh, yeah.
No, I think Jonathan's exactly right. We know that the kinds of policies that have the greatest effect on people's votes are those that affect them directly or they can see them affecting themselves directly, which is why inflation is such a problem. $100 worth of groceries in 2019 cost $125 today.
You know, inflation may have moderated, but it's not going backwards. It's still a big deal. And particularly for younger women or women of childbearing age, abortion is a really big deal. And Jonathan's exactly right. It's a big deal for low information as well as high information voters.
as is inflation. And just as we, as people listen to this, we're not castigating low information voters. That's not a pejorative. It's just, there are, as, as Jonathan talked about people that have other interests outside of obsessing about politics, like we do on this podcast. Uh, and they, they, we don't know when they're going to intersect with information to make up a decision in this race. Um, I, let me ask you a little bit of a, a question then, um,
because I was fascinated again, if you dig into some of those New York times numbers, there is a real, there's a real, uh, there's a little bit of a glow for Donald Trump's presidency inside of these numbers. Um, you know, they asked, was the Trump presidency mostly good or mostly bad? Uh, Trump fared mostly good at 42, mostly bad at 33 for Biden. It was 25, mostly good, 46, mostly bad. Uh,
approval on the Trump economy, 64%, approval on the Biden economy, 35%. Ian, let me ask you both this question. When we look at exit polls the weekend after this race, do you think the bigger impact issue will be economy inflation or will it be abortion?
I think it depends where you're talking, right? I mean, that's the whole question. And I think we'll know the results of the election as to which of those two issues is more salient and where they were. Look, there's no question, right, that...
The economy is in better shape than people perceive it to be. And effectively, Robert, Joe Biden is getting all the post-COVID hangover blame and Donald Trump is dodging it entirely, which is a rich given that COVID happened on Trump's watch, not Biden's watch. But it's the hangover, right, of COVID that has got folks gloomy about the economy. And they put that blame on Biden's shoulders.
And Trump, I think for a lot of voters who, again, don't pay super close attention, Trump is just vaguely recalled as the president from pre-COVID times. You know, I think Biden's paid media will remind people that, you know, Trump was president when the economy crashed and COVID got out of hand. But for now, people are thinking the pre-2020 Donald Trump, Robert.
Yeah. What do you think? People remember the Trump presidency as a time of low inflation, low unemployment, low interest rates, and affordable mortgages. That's...
That is what they're remembering when they compare it to high inflation, high interest rate, and expensive mortgages. So there's a rationale here for why they're thinking that way. I don't think you can make any blanket judgment nationally about whether inflation economy on one hand and abortion
abortion on the other are going to be more important. I agree with Jonathan. It all depends on the place and where you're talking about and may depend upon, you know, locations within a state where you're talking about. But don't underestimate immigration too, Robert. I mean, that is the biggest issue among Republicans right now and an out-of-control border, you know. So the combination of
Immigration, inflation, and abortion, I think, are going to dominate this debate. But it's really hard to say right now which one is going to drive more votes. And speaking of low-information voters, I mean, you can't overestimate how powerful the price of gas and food is for people in their day-to-day life. And they just blame whoever is in power. And it's not more complicated than that.
Man, I just went to the gas station. The price is back up to $3.85 a gallon.
I had dinner last night. Oh, my God. I'm paid 120 bucks. We didn't even have a drink. You know, you hear those conversations. Right. And it's potent. And people get grumpy about it. And that's why inflation is so damaging politically. And the history of presidents who presided over high inflation is so is so ugly. All right. Hold that thought. We're going to take a short break. And now a word from our sponsors.
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And in that long list that I introed in, I didn't mention, I forgot two things, both of which we've now mentioned. One is that inflation did tick back up, right? And I don't, look, I'm not a believer that most of these, most voters, particularly the ones that are going to decide this race, are looking at economic statistics and trying to figure out when the CPI is released. But I do agree with what you both are saying, which is,
They feel it when they go to the grocery store. They feel it when they're out or they feel it, quite frankly, now that they've decided to go out fewer times. And that's a big that's a big challenge. Another thing I forgot in that list of things we could have added a bunch more. Biden sits down with Univision and talks about.
An executive order that, you know, don't roll your eyes. They've been talking about this for six months, but is likely to come by the end of April to severely restrict people coming into this country. Does that have, is the issue so lost for Biden on this? Will this have an impact? The border bill that Republicans and Trump killed. How does that all play in the way you think people are looking at this issue in swing states?
It's very difficult, I think, at this point for Biden to get back on top of the immigration issue. He's waited so long to address what a lot of people feel is an out-of-control border. I suppose any little bit he does may help somewhat on the margins, but most people just believe that he has blown the whole border issue and that you have out-of-control immigration, and he's responsible.
Did the Republicans kill the border bill? Yeah, they did. You know, and for insiders, that's a great argument. But fundamentally, when you're in charge, you're going to get the blame. And that's the problem for Biden right now. Yeah, it is. Jonathan, I think in that Times poll, I think that was the issue.
that was most vexing for Biden was immigration. And, you know, it's something you're going to hear a lot of. I mean, it wasn't an accident that the Speaker and Donald Trump go to Mar-a-Lago to have a press conference about an issue that, quite frankly, doesn't exist in terms of non-citizens voting. But it was just used as a reminder for the border, right? Yeah.
Of course, that's all we want to talk about besides inflation. And this is on Biden. I mean, the fact that he and his inner circle didn't move sooner, it is so puzzling. Like, look, you know, Al Spurgeon's not in our book, which, by the way, is still available on Amazon. This will not pass. You can get it still. It's in paperback now. You can get it for a real bargain.
Please buy it because Jonathan just told a story where he paid $120 for dinner and didn't have a drink. So please buy his book so that he can go out and next time have it. I know, I know. I know it wasn't your story because you didn't have a drink in your story. No, look, uh, Biden's pollster, uh, a good Alabama resident, Robert, uh, Johnny Anzalone, uh,
Although he's a Bama fan, not an Auburn fan, we should note. He's not a perfect man, but it's okay. So Anzalone would send these weekly polling memos based upon a mix of public and private polling to the White House in the first year of Biden's presidency. And we got a hold of a bunch of them,
And for our book and, you know, Ian Saloni was making the point on inflation, immigration and crime. These are rising issues. We got to address them. And I just for the life of me, I don't understand why Biden didn't move more quickly on the border.
It's so puzzling because obviously, if you look at the actions this year, he's willing to take whatever step were necessary. He effectively said we'll shut the border down. So it's not like there is an ideological blockade. It's just so puzzling. And Robert, the only thing I can think of is it was just never his issue. It's not something Biden has focused on in his career as senator. And it wasn't a topic.
of immense interest for him, certainly compared to other issues like the war in Ukraine, like the Middle East, where he's much more in a comfort zone. Seymour, I think the reason is he's more scared and more interested in appealing to the left than he is to the center.
And I don't think it's any more complicated than that, which is a big part of his problem and a big part of why he's mired down 40 percent or below on his job approval rating. Or to put a finer point on that, at least some of the people in the White House are.
And Biden just wasn't thinking about it. And his inner circle is consumed with trying to keep their base happy. Look, I don't disagree that there's some base happiness involved in this. I do think
And yes, I think we can all agree they've been slow on this. I'm going to be fascinated to watch because, again, as we talked about in the beginning of this, if you look at the Times poll, if you look at a bunch of other polling, this is still, to some degree, a jump ball.
And a lot of things are going to decide. I'll be fascinated to see how in the next few months immigration plays out, how much stronger abortion plays out. You saw me. They did some emotional advertising from the Biden campaign on this. I want to segue to one story that I thought was really fascinating.
that I think plays a huge role in kind of putting a topper on all of these issues that we've talked about. NBC News, Peter Nicholas, Vaughn Hilliard, a few others wrote a story also about a week ago, but not covered on this because it came out after we taped. The structural campaign advantage that Biden has, we've been talking about the money advantage, and we are starting to feel and see that, and I wonder if that's not
Hasn't led to some of this slight movement on fundraising, but they also cover the fact that the Biden campaign is building a big campaign.
that he's got hired 300 staff, 100 offices in nine states, compared to the Republicans, Trump and the RNC, quite frankly, now having five or fewer employees in every one of the battleground states. And look, I'm not suggesting that the biggest campaign wins every campaign, but if this is a jump ball and it's a jump ball in six or seven states,
This is going to start making a real difference. This is going to, and I'll be honest with you, I was worried three months ago that
The Biden campaign wasn't building the structure it needed to help turn out these votes, right? That they would have a couple of offices here or there. Pennsylvania, they've got them in Lancaster and York County, right? Not just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. They're trying to pull some of those voters out. How much of a difference you guys have been in? Jonathan, you've watched a lot of races, what you've been in a lot of races. How big a deal is this? To me, it feels like a big deal.
Jay Martin, I'll let you take first crack at that because I'm going to kind of rain on Robert's parade here. So you go ahead. Help me out here, Jonathan. I think it matters in a margin race. And if this race does come down to 20,000 votes apiece in Michigan and Wisconsin, and I'm like, yeah, how about a superior organization can actually have a real impact. But I think Robert Biden's got to cut down the march at first.
If Biden's going to lose Michigan by four and a half points, I don't think it matters that much that he has a better staff on the ground. You know, I think it matters if this thing is actually a viable race. If the country's decided that Biden is just too old to serve for four more years and they blame him for paying too much damn money at the gas pump, then, like, I don't think his staff is going to matter that much, you know? And I'm with Jay Mart on that. The fundamental problem is,
Robert, is that 86% of Americans think Biden is too old to serve effectively in a second term. 86% of Americans don't agree on anything except the fact that Biden is too old. And the second fundamental problem is that virtually nobody in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time. That might not matter so much with a guy in his 50s or 60s, but a guy in his 80s, it matters a whole lot.
People don't vote for a ticket because of a vice president, but they can sure vote against a ticket because they don't think the vice president is ready. And if you don't believe that, talk to some of John McCain's people. You know, they believe they lost votes because people judged his vice presidential nominee not to be ready for primetime. And the problem with the Biden campaign is that Biden is not going to get any younger and Kamala Harris is not going to get any more competent between now and November. So,
So, yes, ground game matters in a very, very close race. But the fundamental challenges of this administration are not going to go away. And if anything, they're going to get worse. I'll push back on that a little bit. I don't think that things are going to get worse. I think in many ways the economy is I think inflation will bump around and maybe it doesn't get appreciably better. But I do think over the long haul.
Biden's got a better chance at people feeling better about the economy than they will feel worse about it. I do think in the Times poll you saw, again, small numbers tick down that Biden was too old, went from 73 to 69. I'll take your point, though, that that's still, I think, a big part of what is going to push Biden.
uh what's going to drive this race much to the chagrin i think of democrats um and i would be remiss if i didn't push back at least broadly on the fact that you compared kamala harris and sarah palin we'll do that in the second hour because we could do a whole podcast on why that's uh that's not uh that's not a measure i would normally put in front of people since
uh sarah palin uh was i don't think was qualified to be governor of alaska and she was at that point so can i say one more thing about the economy by the way which i
You still didn't get that drink? Is that what you want to do? Oh, exactly. I don't want that maker's on the rocks. But no, you mentioned kind of half and just the monthly inflation reports. No, most Americans aren't seeing that. But when there's three in a row that show inflation is still hot and the Federal Reserve cuts in half the number of interest rates,
interest rate cuts they're going to make the rest of this year because of it. That means that a lot of Americans thought that the rates were going to come down, that buying a house would be easier by the end of the year. The stock market had certainly priced in. A lot of those rate cuts has happened. That's why you had this boom in the first quarter in the market. And if those cuts aren't going to happen, or if only half of them are going to happen,
That's a real impediment for Biden, whether it was counting on rates to come down by the end of the year. Yeah, Robert, I'm not suggesting that, you know, inflation might not come down or he might actually do something about the border. I'm not saying that none of that is going to get better. What I'm saying is that he's not going to get any younger and Kamala Harris isn't going to get any smarter.
Point taken. I'm still betting on her versus Sarah Palin, just if anybody's keeping track. I do want to segue, though, to something I do think, along with abortion, is a real big problem for Donald Trump. And that is that he is going to spend a majority of his time in the next six to eight weeks sitting in front of a judge and a jury of his peers in New York,
Going through a trial, which I don't—I'm not sure there's a lot of disagreement about what happened here in writing a check to pay off—
a porn star through Michael Cohen, who then makes up a story and then finds himself in jail. That's obviously quite a bit of shorthand. But how much does how much, in your view, does this present a huge liability for Trump? This was something clearly he a day he did not want to see. Right. Just in the last week, I think there's been two or three different motions to try to stop what started yesterday. Right.
And obviously he fears for his personal freedom, potentially. But the electoral impact of this, to me, seems...
Like, it could be a bit of a game changer if we wake up the weekend after Memorial Day or the few days after Memorial Day with Donald J. Trump, not just the first ex-president to go on trial, but Donald J. Trump, the first ex-president to be convicted of a crime. Robert, Donald Trump is facing some really serious charges in the Jack Smith case. He says,
The indictment in the classified documents case is strong as battery. Yes, he's got Trump on tape admitting one of the charges in the indictment. But if I were designing a case that would be easy for Republicans to dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, I would design exactly the case that Alvin Bragg has brought in New York.
You take an offense that's a misdemeanor under New York law. You elevate it to a felony by linking it through some untested legal theory to a federal statute. And you have the case brought by a prosecutor.
who, when he was running for office, boasted that he had sued the Trump administration more than 100 times. Keep in mind, two other prosecutors passed on this case. So does this sound like a guy who's just trying to enforce the rule of law objectively? Or does this sound like a partisan Democrat out to get Donald Trump?
It would be so easy to dismiss this as a partisan witch hunt, unlike the other cases that he's facing. And the fact that this one comes first is a real gift to Donald Trump compared to one of the others coming first. All right, so let me push back on this a bit. Look, I don't disagree that Alvin Bragg is a Democrat. I don't disagree with some of how you set this up, but
I don't know. I don't. Just as you said, you know, we may not get into the weeds of voters understanding different intricacies on policy issues. I doubt many voters, swing voters, are thinking through, wow, a misdemeanor trumped up to be a bigger charge and Alvin Bragg and blah, blah. I mean, at the end of this, Donald Trump may be sitting in front of a judge sentenced based on
on lying about his actions, seeking to cover them up, breaking the law. And I mean, just to be clear, this is, yes, let's say you're right about Alvin Bragg, and I'm not positing that, but let's say that there's a jury that's going to decide whether or not this is true.
And it's hard to discount a jury saying it's true. If this was just Alvin Bragg deciding who broke the law, but it's not. Alvin Bragg is bringing a case. I think this is one of those things. I think there's a reason Donald Trump doesn't want to find himself in court. And I think he understands that the political damage of this is far greater, um,
It played well for him in Republican primaries, but we're not in a Republican primary. You're right. I think they were good with Robert. For the Trump hardcore, I think it's going to inflame them because they're going to see Trump as getting railroaded by a partisan prosecutor. I think, again, for whatever is the last of the kind of persuadable voters out there,
Just a reminder of the Trump drama. What? He paid off some porn star and now he's in a courtroom because of it facing a trial. What a mess. Like, we don't want that back. I just like the kind of whirlwind of Trump that surrounds him, I think, is one of Biden's best points of offense. Yeah.
Do you want to live with that for four more years, the constant drama? And this is a reminder of it. Yeah, I think Jonathan's right. And, you know, I'm not saying that a guilty verdict would be a plus for him. I'm just saying that it would be easy for him to dismiss. And don't underestimate the impact of a hung jury or an acquittal or a mistrial. I mean, it just makes
makes Trump's point for him that it's all this partisan witch hunt stuff and it'll undermine these other cases which are really really serious cases yeah which may not be heard before an election which I think is is some of the challenge on on that I look I I don't disagree that
It'll be interesting to see what the outcome is. I think if the outcome is a guilty verdict, to Jonathan's point, do you really want this happening? Do you really want your president? And look, I get it. We don't have to revere these guys anymore, right? But do you want your president to be spending time or running for president sitting in a courtroom? Do
Do we want that sort of drama? Do we want like, you know, do we want to wake up every morning to what we've he's ranted and raved about at three in the morning on truth social? I think there's a real set of fatigue. I think David said this best, right? Which is don't underestimate Donald Trump's ability to blow this election for Donald Trump. No, I agree with that. It's hard, hard to disagree with that. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors.
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When another polling question for you, we've seen just in the last few days, some real heightened concern about what's happening in the Middle East, maybe becoming even bigger and greater with something that could instead of being series of proxy wars, could be Iran versus Israel dragging lots of people, a regional war turning into something, you know, or two countries turning into something, quite frankly, much bigger.
On the other side, we have Speaker Johnson finally appears this week. I'm going to put an asterisk by it because it may change after we finish recording. But Speaker Johnson looking like he's going to push through, at least on the Republican House side, some unpopular votes around for Ukraine. What role do you see foreign policy playing in the rest of this race? And does anybody have a distinct advantage around that? Normally...
As you all know, foreign policy does not drive a whole lot of votes unless Americans are dying overseas.
This feels different because of the enormous symbolism of an unprovoked attack on a peaceful democracy and its implications for NATO and the entire Western alliance. This could be a really big deal. I certainly hope the package gets through the House. I think there are 300 votes on the floor if it would ever get to the floor.
But the problem for Joe Biden is twofold. The first is that the withdrawal from Afghanistan really undermined his reputation as an expert in foreign policy. Indeed, if you look at his job approval, disapproval, the lines crossed right after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan.
And the second is that it's kind of reminiscent of Jimmy Carter and the Iranian hostage crisis. It just looked like then there was a guy who was president, but these events were going out of control and he had little ability to affect them.
And that's the danger for Biden with all of these blowups around the world is that the world is coming apart at the seams and he has very little ability, it would appear, to affect them in a good direction. So that's the danger for the Biden administration and foreign policy, I think, which could very well play a larger role than we would normally expect.
for foreign policy to play. The action on foreign policy that is relevant in this election is largely on Biden's left flank. It's not complicated. If there is not some kind of a ceasefire or greater peace deal in the Middle East in October of this year, Biden's going to have a really hard time getting elected because Biden's going to lose voters who either stay home or vote for Jill Stein, Cornel West, or Bobby Kennedy in a handful of key states
And Biden can't afford to lose those votes. Look, Biden's coalition is so delicate, you know, because it really spans everybody from AOC to the Cheney family. That's a pretty broad coalition in American politics, right? AOC and the Cheneys don't have a lot in common, except for the one big thing, which is they don't want Donald Trump to be president. But when you take the side effectively of the Israelis, or that's the perception, right?
of Biden on the left, then that creates challenges. And we haven't even talked about this yet, but you guys know that the Republicans and, you know, allied super PACs are going to spend gobs of money trying to drive younger and left-wing voters to vote for Jill Stein and Cornel West to undermine Biden in a handful of states. And if there's still a hot war in the Middle East this fall, that mission is going to be a lot easier.
for those skullduggery Republicans. Yeah, one of the interesting things in the Times poll was they did not include in the head-to-head any of the potential third-party candidates. They did ask in a secondary question, people could volunteer other candidates
Uh, other choices. They volunteered 2%. I think RFK got 2% RFK junior, excuse me, got 2%. Cordell West and Jill Stein got under that. They kind of the pollster did say in a write-up that he thought this might be the last time RFK is not included as one of those lines in this, um, largely because we've got to see where, and I think this will have a huge impact on the outcome of this race.
Where are these candidates actually on the ballot, right? Where does Jill Stein and the Green Party get on the ballot? Where does RFK Jr. get on the ballot? Does Cornel West have an apparatus that allows him to
get on the ballot in any place? Or is this something that we just sort of talk through and doesn't mean anything? You're exactly right, Robert. I mean, it's all a matter of where they get on the ballot. But if you add them to the ballot in a national survey, our last survey had RFK Jr. at 16%.
And the combination of Stein and West and RFK was close to 20%, which is what Ross Perot got in 1992. Now, I don't for a minute think that RFK Jr., after a campaign, could get those kinds of numbers because it's basically a none of the above vote.
for two very, very unpopular nominees. But we really can't, as Jonathan said, can't underestimate the enormous potential impact if indeed these guys get on ballots because there are going to be a whole lot of people
who will go for some option other than Biden or Trump. They may do what 30,000 people did in Georgia in 2020, and that is go to the polls, skip the presidential ballot, and then vote in all the down-ballot races, which is how Biden won Georgia while Republicans down the ballot were winning everything.
So we can't underestimate the impact of the fact that neither one of these people is wanted as the next president of the United States by 70% of Americans. When you look at a poll like that, what would your guess be? When we wake up the day after the election, that number of 20% either picking none of the above or some apportionment to Kennedy, Stein, West...
whoever the libertarian candidate is god only knows who else what do you think that that total number is going to likely be half that history of course suggests that as the election gets closer people fall off the third party candidates because they don't want to waste their vote so i for a minute believe it's going to be 19 on the other hand you know anything over about two you
can have a huge impact. And this desire for somebody else may very well drive it above the 1.5% or 2% where it becomes a non-factor. Yeah, no doubt. Jonathan, anything on that? No. Again, this is a margins game. By the way, it's not a new one. It's not like this is a theoretical thing.
Twice in this century, 2016, third-party candidates played pivotal roles by taking just enough votes in key states to shape, to decide the presidency. So we've all seen the movie before. In some cases, literally seen the movie, recount, featuring Michael Foley and Ron Clayton. Yeah, trust me, if there's one thing you don't need to do on this podcast, Jonathan, is remind
Any Democratic listener of the impact of third-party candidates in either 2000 or 2016 and what it means. And now, a word from our sponsors. ♪
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at gmail.com. Let's start this off. We're lucky we're going to use three voicemail questions today. Hey there, I'm Trevor from Kansas City. My question is, do you think the Biden campaign should and will do more in the months ahead to message about RFK Jr.'s more right-wing beliefs, like his anti-back stance or his previous comments supporting a 15-week abortion ban? Do you think that would potentially spur
split more right-wing independents and help keep Democrats who are turned off from Biden from voting for him. Thank you. Jonathan, not a low information voter right there. Yeah, not at all. Thank you, Casey and the House. I think I mentioned the skullduggery earlier. I think it's going to be off the charts, skullduggery, or to use a term of art, rat fucking. I believe I can say on hacks.
You can. I think, yes, the Biden campaign, Democrats more broadly, are going to try to weaponize RFK to appeal to voters who are sort of anti-institution conspiracy theorists who are pissed at Trump for pushing vaccines and for, you know, actually helping to, you know,
create the vaccine to COVID through Operation Warp Speed. Yeah, Democrats are going to try to leverage RFK to drain votes from Trump, and Republicans are going to leverage Stein and West to do the same to Biden. We are in for a season of rat population. All right, cue up. Question for Whit Jane.
Hi, my name is Jane from Connecticut. I've never heard this topic discussed, and I want to know if you'd be willing to take it on. The incredible influence Fox has had on politics and viewers. I've witnessed so many people brainwashed by Fox, and they're often inaccurate depictions of what's happening in politics and our country at large. Can you please address this? Thank you.
All right, Witt, tell us more. There is no question that Fox reinforces many of the views of their listeners. And it's part of this breakup in our media where people can seek out voices that tell them essentially what they want to hear. But Fox is no more right than MSNBC is on the left.
MSNBC appeals to the people who tune into MSNBC and they reinforce liberal perspectives and liberal points of view, just like Fox does on the right. That's why it's so important to switch around, to listen to all the
three, CNN and MSNBC and Fox to read more broadly. People on all sides. It is very difficult, I think, to get a perspective on politics that helps you understand what's going to happen if all you do is listen to Fox or all you do is listen to MSNBC because you will never, ever understand the thinking of people who disagree with you if that's your only source of information.
I saw some numbers this weekend in a public poll that mentioned the biggest driver for information right now on the Republican side is being driven, not surprisingly, by Donald Trump. And, you know, Donald Trump has, whether you read him on Truth Social, whether you read him on what was once Twitter, or whether you hear him now, Trump has ushered in very distinctly into our politics a very, very post-fact world. It's accelerated it in a way
that is dangerous. It's accelerated in a way that it's going to be very hard to put that genie back in the bottle. And I think one of the things that campaigns are having to deal with and have to be designed to deal with these days is misinformation and disinformation coming right from one of the major candidates' mouth. I am taking question number one. Hey, Hacks. Danny here. Curious. Yeah.
I had a cynical thought listening to you guys earlier and probably too clever by half. Is there any merit to Democrats funding pro-life ballot initiatives or anti-abortion ballot initiatives to increase Democratic turnout? Thanks. Danny, thanks for your question. And we understand cynicism here at Hacks.
All too well. I don't know how much you're going to have Democrats funding on the other side of this anti-abortion ballot initiatives. But what I do think you see, and you see it in Florida, you see it in Montana, you likely will see it in Arizona, you've seen it in other places.
Democrats want to put this issue on the ballot. They want not states to decide, they want state voters to decide. And when they have put this on the ballot, they have seen that
Whether it's in a place like Ohio, which is pretty red, whether it's a place like Kansas, which is even more red, that time and again, this is an issue that is a winning one for Democrats. And I think you're going to see...
a lot of heat and energy put around this issue and a lot of heat and energy put around some of these initiatives. I don't think Florida is going to be in play because of this, but I think it's going to be a lot of nerves and anxiety for Republicans that are on the ballot there. I think it could have an impact in places like Montana. I think it's going to have an enormous impact in a place
like Arizona in both the Senate race and the presidential race. So I agree with Witt and Jonathan. I think this is the most potent issue for Democrats by far. I think you're going to hear the president talk a lot about it. And I think you're going to have states where these decisions are going to impact not just state constitutions and what happens to voters in those states, but really impact how the United States thinks about this issue and how they pick the next president. Jonathan Martin,
Stranded in Michigan without a drink. Witt Ayers, stranded probably somewhere in the south, surrounded by... I'm going to find a burner ginger ale, which inflation cannot do any kind of damage to. The official ginger ale of Michigan, the Mitten. Please buy Jonathan's book so he can afford a drink at his next dinner. Jonathan, thank you for joining us from Grand Rapids. Witt, thank you. And next week, we will have a couple more hacks back from vacation.
Until then... Can we get an APP on those guys here somewhere? They are undoubtedly currently under national security surveillance, but their whereabouts highly protected, Jonathan. Their whereabouts highly protected. Secure location with Nick Cheney. Thank you both. Always a pleasure. Always a pleasure, Robert. And we will be back next week. Thanks, everybody. ♪