Abortion and Crime, Revisited (Update)

2024/10/28

Freakonomics Radio

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People

Jessica Wolpaw Reyes

John Donohue

Stephen Dubner

以《怪诞经济学》系列著名的美国作家、记者和广播电视人物。

Steve Levitt

Topics

Stephen Dubner: 本节目探讨了美国堕胎法律的重大转变及其难以预测的后果，特别是罗诉韦德案对犯罪率的意外影响。该研究引发了广泛的争议和讨论，涉及道德、政治和方法论等多个层面。 Steve Levitt: 与John Donohue合作的研究表明，20世纪70年代堕胎合法化可能导致20世纪90年代犯罪率下降。这一结论基于对多种证据的分析，包括对不同堕胎率州的犯罪率比较，以及对不同年龄段犯罪者数据的分析。研究结果显示，堕胎率高的州的犯罪率下降幅度更大。尽管研究结果曾因编码错误而受到质疑，但修正后的结果仍然支持这一假设。 John Donohue: 参与了与Steve Levitt合作的研究，该研究指出，堕胎合法化减少的不只是出生婴儿的数量，还有“不受欢迎”的儿童数量。大量社会科学文献表明，不受欢迎的儿童长大后更容易出现不良后果，包括犯罪行为。研究人员还分析了在罗诉韦德案之前已经合法化堕胎的五个州的数据，以及按犯罪者年龄划分的犯罪数据，结果都支持了他们的假设。 Jessica Wolpaw Reyes: 研究了铅污染对社会行为的影响，发现20世纪70年代将铅从汽油中去除也是导致20世纪90年代犯罪率下降的一个重要因素。这项研究并没有驳斥堕胎与犯罪率之间关系的结论，而是证实了多因素因果关系的存在。 Steve Levitt: 对2001年研究的更新显示，堕胎率高的州的犯罪率下降幅度比堕胎率低的州高出约60%，堕胎合法化对犯罪率下降的影响比之前预测的更大。研究结果引发了人们对多因素因果关系的讨论，以及对社会政策的思考。莱维特强调，即使研究结果与预期相反，也应该公开发表。 John Donohue: 讨论了堕胎合法化对犯罪率的影响，以及可能采取的社会政策。他认为，如果堕胎确实对犯罪率下降有显著影响，那么就应该对现有的警务和监禁政策进行重新评估。此外，他还强调了关注儿童福祉的重要性，并建议采取措施减少“不受欢迎”儿童的数量。 Stephen Dubner: 总结了关于堕胎与犯罪率之间关系的讨论，并指出，媒体报道往往会丢失很多信息，外行难以理解复杂的社会科学研究。他认为，更好的报道方式应该是先呈现事实，再让读者自行判断。他还指出，许多社会问题的讨论往往受到人们的个人立场和价值观的影响，这使得理性讨论变得更加困难。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the U.S. Supreme Court strike down Roe v. Wade?

To return the legality of abortion to state control.

How many states have banned abortion since Roe v. Wade was struck down?

13 states.

What is the significance of the Nov. 5 ballot regarding abortion?

It includes decisions on abortion legality in 10 states.

What is the main focus of Steve Levitt’s research in relation to abortion?

The impact of legalized abortion on crime rates.

What has been the public reaction to John Donohue’s views on abortion?

He is often labeled as a 'treasonous enemy of the Constitution.'

Chapters

The episode begins by discussing the unexpected drop in crime in the 1990s and the various theories proposed to explain it, setting the stage for the controversial link between legalized abortion and crime reduction.

Crime rates began to rise in the 1960s and continued through the 1980s.
By 1990, violent crime rates were at alarming levels.
Theories such as better policing, capital punishment, and economic factors were proposed but lacked sufficient explanatory power.

Shownotes Transcript

With abortion on the Nov. 5 ballot, we look back at Steve Levitt’s controversial research about an unintended consequence of Roe v. Wade.

SOURCES:
John Donohue), professor of law at Stanford Law School.
Steve Levitt), professor emeritus of economics at the University of Chicago and host of People I (Mostly) Admire.
Jessica Wolpaw Reyes), professor of economics at Amherst College.
RESOURCES:
“The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime Over the Last Two Decades),” by John J. Donohue and Steven D. Levitt (The National Bureau of Economic Research, 2019).
“The Demise of the Death Penalty in Connecticut),” by John J. Donohue (Stanford Law School Legal Aggregate, 2016).
“Environmental Policy as Social Policy? The Impact of Childhood Lead Exposure on Crime),” by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes (The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 2007).
“The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime),” by John J. Donohue and Steven D. Levitt (The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2001).
“State Abortion Rates: The Impact of Policies, Providers, Politics, Demographics, and Economic Environment),” by Rebecca M. Blank, Christine C. George, and Rebecca A. London (The National Bureau of Economic Research, 1994).
EXTRAS:
"John Donohue: 'I’m Frequently Called a Treasonous Enemy of the Constitution,')" by *People I (Mostly) Admire *(2021).

Abortion and Crime, Revisited (Update) 54:46 Share