610. Who Wins and Who Loses Once the U.S. Legalizes Weed?

2024/11/7

Freakonomics Radio

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Adam Gores

Jared Polis

John Calkins

Ryan Stoa

Stephen Dubner

以《怪诞经济学》系列著名的美国作家、记者和广播电视人物。

Yasmin Hurd

Topics

Stephen Dubner: 本期节目探讨美国大麻合法化后的经济和社会影响，以及不同利益相关者的观点。大麻合法化是一个复杂的问题，既有经济利益，也有潜在的社会成本，包括更多逮捕、无家可归和物质使用障碍。 Jared Polis: 科罗拉多州大麻合法化带来了巨额税收收入，用于资助公共项目和教育，并创造了大量就业机会。同时，合法化也使大麻供应链更加安全，降低了未成年人吸食大麻的风险。然而，由于周边州也合法化以及产能过剩，科罗拉多州的大麻市场有所下滑。 John Calkins: 大麻使用者中，每日或几乎每日使用者的比例很高，这引发了对大麻成瘾性和公共健康影响的担忧。他认为大麻产业应由政府垄断经营，以控制价格和消费量，并避免过度营销。 Adam Gores: 将大麻重新分类为附表三类药物将有助于减少污名化，降低税收负担，并促进大麻研究。他认为大麻合法化将是一个新的转型时刻，传统烟草和酒精公司可能会进入大麻市场。 Yasmin Hurd: 大麻合法化速度超过了科学研究速度，需要更多研究来了解大麻的潜在风险，特别是高浓度产品对发育中大脑和老年人的影响。 Ryan Stoa: 大麻产业不应过度整合，应支持小型企业和家庭农场的发展，类似于精酿啤酒产业的发展模式。他建议采用产地认证制度，以提高透明度，增加消费者选择，并保护小型企业。 Stephen Dubner: 本节目讨论了大麻合法化对美国社会的影响，包括经济、公共健康、法律执行和监狱等方面。专家们对大麻的成瘾性和潜在危害持有不同看法，对大麻产业的未来发展模式也存在分歧，有人支持政府垄断，有人支持精酿模式。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is there a growing public support for cannabis legalization in the U.S.?

Cannabis is popular, with 64% public support, and some public health officials see it as a way to reduce alcohol-related harms. Politicians avoid taking strong positions on popular issues.

What are the economic benefits of legalizing recreational marijuana in states?

States see rises in per capita income, housing prices, and population. Legalization shifts revenue from drug dealers to legitimate businesses, generating state tax revenue and creating jobs.

Why has the cannabis market in Colorado softened in recent years?

The novelty of cannabis tourism has diminished as more states legalize it. Overbuilding of capacity and normalization of supply to meet demand have also contributed.

How does Governor Jared Polis view the public health impact of cannabis compared to alcohol?

Polis believes cannabis is less chemically addictive and less destructive to the body than alcohol. He also notes that alcohol is linked to more crimes like domestic violence.

What are the potential benefits of rescheduling cannabis from a Schedule 1 to a Schedule 3 drug?

Rescheduling could reduce stigma, allow cannabis companies to deduct business expenses, and open up new research pathways, providing public health and safety benefits.

Why does Yasmin Hurd advocate for more research on cannabis?

Hurd wants an 'army of researchers' to study high-concentrated cannabis products, their effects on the developing brain, and the impact of flavorings and chemicals used in production.

What does Ryan Stoa propose for the future cannabis market?

Stoa advocates for a decentralized market similar to the craft beer industry, supporting family farms and local producers, and implementing cannabis appellations to create transparency and choice.

Why does John Calkins prefer a government-run monopoly for cannabis?

Calkins believes a government monopoly would reduce marketing incentives, capture the gap between consumer value and production cost, and prevent over-consumption by not pushing people to use more.

What long-term effects does John Calkins predict from increasing cannabis legalization?

Calkins expects minimal impact on prisons and mental health, viewing cannabis as a temptation good that people will adapt to, similar to how society navigates risks with alcohol and smoking.

Chapters

The podcast explores the potential winners and losers in the U.S. cannabis market once federal legalization occurs, highlighting the economic and social impacts observed in states that have already legalized recreational marijuana.

Cannabis remains illegal federally and classified as a Schedule I drug.
Economic indicators tend to rise after state legalization, but social costs like increased arrests and homelessness also emerge.
Economic benefits diminish for states that legalize later, attributed to a decline in cannabis tourism.

Shownotes Transcript

Some people want the new cannabis economy to look like the craft-beer movement. Others are hoping to build the Amazon of pot. And one expert would prefer a government-run monopoly. We listen in as they fight it out. (Part four of a four-part series).)

SOURCES:
Jon Caulkins), professor of operations research and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University.
Adam Goers), senior vice president of The Cannabist Company and chairperson of the Coalition for Cannabis Scheduling Reform.
Yasmin Hurd), director of the Addiction Institute at Mount Sinai.
Jared Polis), governor of Colorado.
Ryan Stoa), associate professor of law at Louisiana State University.
RESOURCES:
"Prevalence of and Trends in Current Cannabis Use Among U.S. Youth and Adults, 2013–2022)," by Delvon T. Mattingly, Maggie K. Richardson, and Joy L. Hart (*Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports, *2024).
"Colorado’s Weed Market Is Coming Down Hard and It’s Making Other States Nervous)," by Mona Zhang (*Politico, *2024).
"Reducing Alcohol Consumption, the Nordic Way: Alcohol Monopolies, Marketing Bans and Higher Taxation)," by the World Health Organization (2023).
"Economic Benefits and Social Costs of Legalizing Recreational Marijuana)," by Jason P. Brown, Elior Cohen, and Alison Felix (*Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Research Working Paper, *2023).
"Competition in the Markets for Beer, Wine, and Spirits)," by the United States Department of the Treasury (2022).
"Alcohol Monopolies)," by Robin Room (*Scottish Health Action on Alcohol Problems, *2021).
"Craft Beer Is the Strangest, Happiest Economic Story in America)," by Derek Thompson (*The Atlantic, *2018).
"Marijuana Discontinuation, Anxiety Symptoms, and Relapse to Marijuana)," by Marcel O. Bonn-Miller and Rudolf H. Moos (*Addictive Behaviors, *2009).
EXTRAS:
"Is America Switching from Booze to Weed?)" series by *Freakonomics Radio *(2024).
"Why Do Your Eyeglasses Cost $1,000?)" by *Freakonomics Radio *(2024).
"Should You Trust Private Equity to Take Care of Your Dog?)" by *Freakonomics Radio *(2023).
"Is Dialysis a Test Case of Medicare for All?)" by *Freakonomics Radio *(2021).

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