606. How to Predict the Presidency
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Are betting markets more accurate than polls? What kind of chaos would a second Trump term bring? And is U.S. democracy really in danger, or just “sputtering on”? (Part two of a two-part series).)

• SOURCES:

• Eric Posner), professor of law at the University of Chicago Law School.

• Koleman Strumpf), professor of economics at Wake Forest University.

• RESOURCES:

• "A Trump Dictatorship Won’t Happen)," by Eric Posner (*Project Syndicate, *2023).

• The Demagogue's Playbook: The Battle for American Democracy from the Founders to Trump)*, *by Eric Posner (2020).

• "The Long History of Political Betting Markets: An International Perspective)," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman Strumpf (*The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Gambling, *2013).

• "Manipulating Political Stock Markets: A Field Experiment and a Century of Observational Data)," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (Working Paper, 2007).

• "Historical Presidential Betting Markets)," by Paul W. Rhode and Koleman S. Strumpf (*Journal of Economic Perspectives, *2004).

• EXTRAS:

• "Has the U.S. Presidency Become a Dictatorship? (Update))," by *Freakonomics Radio *(2024).

• “Does the President Matter as Much as You Think?)” by *Freakonomics Radio *(2020).

• "How Much Does the President Really Matter?)" by *Freakonomics Radio *(2010).