In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector’s role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle

(09:24) Is this Cycle Different?

(12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles

(18:20) The Cyclical Economy

(21:52) The Housing Sector

(26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing

(30:44) Measuring the Labor Market

(34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims

(39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims

(42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions

(47:12) The Unemployment Rate

(50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve

(57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?

(01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian 01:03:04 Share

Forward Guidance

Introduction

Breaking Down the Business Cycle

Is This Cycle Different?

Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles

The Cyclical Economy

The Housing Sector

Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing

Measuring the Labor Market

Digging Into Jobless Claims

Impact of the Gig Economy on Jobless Claims

Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions

The Unemployment Rate

The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve

Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation?

Learn More About Eric's Work

Shownotes Transcript

Breaking Down The Current Business Cycle | Eric Basmajian