Home
cover of episode Week 4 preview: Josh Allen vs. Lamar, Geno vs. Lions, Hurts vs. Bucs D, slop watch

Week 4 preview: Josh Allen vs. Lamar, Geno vs. Lions, Hurts vs. Bucs D, slop watch

2024/9/26
logo of podcast Football 301

Football 301

Chapters

The Seahawks (3-0) face a challenging road game against the Lions, who were preseason NFC favorites. A key question is whether Geno Smith can sustain his impressive performance against a tough Lions defense known for its man coverage, led by Aiden Hutchinson. The Lions' offense, potentially hampered by Frank Ragnow's absence, will test the Seahawks' defense in a clash of styles.
  • Geno Smith has the highest success rate against man coverage in the NFL.
  • The Lions run the second-highest rate of man coverage in the league.
  • Frank Ragnow's presence significantly impacts the Lions' offensive performance.

Shownotes Transcript

On this episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me to preview week four. Three games, do a little deep dive, we do a little four-minute offense on two other matchups that we really like, especially a Haas match that's happening in Indianapolis. And then we slop it up at the end with a couple matchups there and slop watch. See you guys in a sec.

Credit Karma makes building your credit straightforward and stress-free with help from our credit builder. Sign up today at creditkarma.com and start enhancing your financial health. Credit Karma, your partner in building a brighter financial future. Credit Builder Plan is serviced by Credit Karma Credit Builder and requires a line of credit and savings account provided by Cross River Bank member FDIC.

Achieving a gorgeous grin from home isn't a total mystery with BiteClear aligners. Just don't be surprised if all of your sleuthing friends start asking, what's your secret? Begin by ordering your at-home impression kit today for only $14.95. BiteClear aligners are doctor-directed and delivered to your door.

Treatment costs thousands less than braces. Plus, they offer flexible financing, accept eligible insurance, and you can pay with your HSA FSA. Get 80% off your impression kit when you use code WONDERY at Byte.com. That's B-Y-T-E dot com. Start your confidence journey today with Byte. ♪ music playing ♪

Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I am Nate Tice. We are doing our week four preview show today. Got a couple different categories today. We're doing a little four minute drill, which I hinted at last week. You know, it's just a hodgepodge way to talk about what we want to talk about. We're going to full preview three games. And then we're also going to do a little bit of slop watch, which is for the

For the sickos. It's for us. It's like we just want to share something that we're excited to watch. So roll around the mud with us.

Who's going to help me do that? Slop them up, get those sloppy steaks going is my good friend, Mr. Forverts himself, Charles McDonald. How are you doing today, Chuck? In the studio again. I am doing better than the mayor of the city I'm currently in. And that's all I need to say. It's a beautiful day. I'm not dealing with any indictments. I can freely roam around the city as I please. So probably a pretty good day, my friend.

Not hosting a press conference? No, not yet. Not yet. We'll get to that after the Falcon Saints game. Same type of backdrop. Same people yelling at you. Yeah, but he probably is getting plenty of questions. If you have any questions for us, yes, send in a mailbag question to football301mailbag at yahoosports.com. Keep churning those in. We're going to hit them fairly soon. Maybe next week. Maybe.

Drop a little hint there. Week four. That may be a good time to check in. Also, again, I mentioned this before, but we're going to start with a full preview of three games that we found to be the most juicy, the juiciest of this slate of games. Fun, mixed bag.

You know, you got a different, you know, you can kind of tell really just looking at point spreads and also just like, oh yeah, this seems pretty okay. Not even just look at a record. So it's like, you know, we got a lot in the middle there, which is always fun. So we're gonna look at three of those games. We're gonna do a four minute drill. This version of it on this show is we are going to just take at, take a look at one side of the ball, you know, kind of some matchups we like also look at a Haas fight that's

that we like this week. And then, like I said before, we're going to slop it up at the end with a couple more matchups that we think are more interesting than first meets the eye. All right. Starting us off, which is actually the end of the weekend, is the Seahawks at the Lions. Lions are three and a half point favorites. I believe that line has moved, actually. When you are checking out this game, remember, the Seahawks are 3-0.

And traveling to this Lions team that were one of the favorites, I believe the second favorite in the NFC going into the season and have looked kind of the part. And the Seahawks have looked impressive, maybe not against a gauntlet or a juggernaut slate of games. So, Charles, when you're checking out this matchup between the Seahawks and the Lions, what are you looking at to start with? I would say Seahawks offense versus Lions defense. For this one, I am just curious if Dino Smith can keep this up because I

I went back, even after we recorded the episode the other day, I went back and watched that game again. And he's just so on point and in control and never panicked. And I think that, you know, when you look at how the offensive line still hasn't gotten up to the level where we would hope it would be, I think, in the pass blocking realm, which is a problem because, like,

Aiden Hutchinson is the king of feasting on bat, the offensive lines. Like if you show up there with an offensive tackle, that's not, you know, the starter quality, he might get five sacks on you. You know, that's where he's at right now. So I just kind of want to see if you're going to get the pass rush, if you're going to be thrown into, you know, a more talented secondary than the Lions had last year. Then I just want to see if Geno can keep this up because I think that as the

the weeks go by and the seasons go by, he is just playing such an integral role in this offense where you just kind of have to notice he's just flat out one of the best quarterbacks in football right now. It feels weird to say based on everything we know about his journey to get to this point, but I think you just kind of have to accept it. And if he can stand up against some of the pieces they have on the line's defensive line, especially with how the tackle situation has been performing,

they might have a chance to get the upset on the road. But I think that that's one of the areas that, not even just for this game, but just like for the rest of the season. Like, you know, because he's going to be in line. Why not ask for $55 million a year for Gino Smith?

Why not? Look what everyone else is getting. Especially if he outperforms golf, then he can just go, huh? Huh? No. I mean, Gino has a long rushing touchdown this season too, but he is the most... And I think I said this a few years ago, but he's like... And I meant it as a compliment, but I could see how it sounds bad. But the most statuesque quarterback right now, as far as just stands strong in the pocket and he stands and delivers. But...

But he has a full control of the offense. Grubb, the new offensive coordinator, kind of is just running a lot of the standard stuff. But he is letting Geno do it. Like he's letting kill plays, change protections, check in totally two different looks, which is a lot of fun. I think this is going to be a fun matchup. Like schematically is kind of a who blinks first is the lines run a lot of cover one, a lot of man coverage, second highest rate in the NFL. Yeah.

The league average is 23%. So a lot more. And you know, who is really good against man coverage, Gino Smith and

DK Metcalf, Gino Smith against man coverage this year, 25 or 34, 297 yards, a touchdown, 65% success rate. First in the NFL and success rate league average is 43%. So that is a, the lions aren't going to change like Eric Glenn. Just like, this is what we're doing. So deal with it. And so I think it's gonna be a lot of light bodies, a lot of sub personnel, a lot of 11 personnel, which I think the Seahawks are fine with. They're not going to try and bully him on the ground. This lion's run defense is legit. Good.

And I think they're going to, if they do go 12% with two tight ends, it's the throw of the ball, which I thought the Cardinals might do a little bit more. But this Lions team can stop the run, and I think they're going to challenge them in man coverage. So I think it's going to be a lot of

like staring down the barrel of the gun and let those balls rip that's the game that's what's going to be in mono it is and you got a bunch of physical lines dbs i mean you got all these guys every single one i any of the corners you can say any of their names but also you got like dk who could get a little hot you know especially when he gets challenged so i think that's gonna be a pretty fun matchup throughout that game uh but yeah that uh going on to the other side though

I believe Dan Campbell said that Frank Ragnow, the center for the Lions, is going to be down this game. He didn't put down. Put down, I know.

That sounds so harsh. Not putting him on IR, though, so maybe he comes back and I have to reshare my Frank Ragnow MVP stats from last year. 755 plays with Frank Ragnow, the Lions last year. Third in yards per play. Fourth in success rate. Tied for second in EPA per play. 182 plays without Frank Ragnow last year. 13th in yards per play. 29th in success rate. 27th in EPA per play. He is very important.

to this Lions offense. So, but what else are you looking at in this game, Charles? What, I think it's, I think this one's pretty interesting, especially with the Lions maybe having one hand tied behind their back. I feel like one thing that you and me have always come back to, like whenever we talk about offensive line play where we're just like, man, you know how dope it is to have a good ass center just in the middle of your, it changes everything. Um,

And I think that that's going to be a big loss for them just as they try to navigate this. Because I think when you look at, like, the focal point of the run game, like, so much of it starts with him being stout in the middle. Like, if you're going to be a team that wants to slam it inside the tackles, and especially when David Montgomery's in the game, you know, when they've, I think twice now over the past two years, we've seen the Lions, like,

run down, literally run down the field in two-minute drill where they did it last year against the Bears. And then they did it against, they did another similar drive against the Rams earlier this year. So, like, that is where they want to lean on, like, for offensive success. So if he's not going to be out there, I think that, I know that that matters a lot. It does. It does. It does. It matters a ton. Because, you know, the Seahawks defense, like, this is their first kind of real big boy challenge of the year. Which is fun. And

Obviously, to go against this offense without Ragnarok is a big plus. But even with that, just the battles and the trenches, because I think Seattle has played well there. They've gotten better there compared to last year. Even with, you know, a lot of the same guys are still in town. I think maybe they're just getting a little bit more inspired, better players.

organized coaching than they were last year. But what I also want to see just from like a caveman standpoint is just how hard Seattle's linebackers, like they'll trigger downhill sometimes and just to see some big boy collisions against the lines and when they're trying to run inside, like this is a, like styles make fight. Like if you like old school football, I think you might enjoy what you see from like the Lions offense versus the Yonks defense. Yeah. And both,

And I have to remember in football, early downs and late downs are such different worlds. It's both is very traditional because like late downs, McDonald's so funky and the Lions and Ben Johnson do a lot of like designer stuff. So you got classic, like hyper specific game plan on third and fourth down and first and second down just straight up fistfights. So you kind of get the best of both worlds with football in this game, which I think is so fun.

I, I, I'm glad you brought up kind of the Seahawks guys are playing better. They're just, yeah, they're all just pointing the right direction. You can see it most with the DBS and how kind of clean they play right now. A little faster in the middle of the field than last year. Yeah, that helps. It helps a lot. Speed helps and covering anybody helps. But, but,

Like, boy, Mafi has played well, but now he's going against Decker and Sewell. This is his first real, real tough matchup. Broncos guys aren't the toughest offensive tackles in the world. They're fine. But I also just think that this is, yeah, you kind of nailed it. It's just a great styles mix fights. The lines, bread and butters. They're going to run it always. And then they're going to have designer plays in the pass game. That's just, this is how they're built. So even without Ragnow, I think that's what they're going to do. The Seahawks are kind of,

fine against the run, but they still have the personnel for it. Shout out Jonathan Hankins. And remember that kind of creeper and simulated stuff like Bucks and Cardinals went to it. The Cardinals in the second half really got the lines. They're really fooling them. The Cardinals defense. I'm actually kind of

a little more bullish on them than I was in the first like seven quarters, first nine quarters of the season. It's all it took to get you back. That's it, I know. I know the line. I think it's just when I'm like, oh, the lines are always good on offense. So like if someone does well against someone, I'm always like, oh, and I just maybe overrated my head a little bit. Speaking of which, last year, Mike McDonald had a, he threw a heater.

you know, he had a shutout in this game, not literally, but yeah, he was on his game. This was his big kind of coming out party as a play caller, especially when the Ravens were rolling. So remember that it's like he has some funky stuff on third and fourth down, but he hasn't done a ton of it yet, but I could see more of it happening in this game to try and maybe confuse a new center. All right. Fun game. Next one, a full breakdown. We got a classic matchup. I think no, no Packers bears is the longest one. One of the longest Packers,

Actually, we can't be because the Vikings came in 1961. So that was bad by me. I should know this better. But Vikings at Packers, a classic, a matchup after my own heart. We got the fake moon game.

in this rivalry we got plenty of good matchups in this one we got some we got some far moments on both sides but when you're watching this game i think there's some fun scheme stuff here a lot of cool players when the vikings offense has the ball against the packers or two and a half point favorites by the way so they're looking at this as a neutral matchup which is fun what are you keying in on vikings oh packers d i just want to see if one of these games

someone's going to catch the pass and Sam Donald's throwing their ways. And I mean that on defense, kind of. And I want to say that I think Sam's been a lot better than he has been in years past. Like, a lot better. But he still has the plays where he's putting the ball, you know, in harm's way. I think, you know, some of that can be mitigated by, like...

playing with Justin Jefferson, also his own talent. Like he does have some pretty crazy arm talent when he can set his feet and just fire one in there. And, you know, he's not getting scatterbrained in the pocket, looking at a million different things at once. I almost wonder, like, do the Packers like quite have personnel to just totally take advantage of that? Because it hasn't, hasn't happened up yet, like yet to this point. Cause I thought that like Stingley and Petrie might get them a couple of times this past week, but I,

You know, it's been clean enough where they've been 0-3 and they blasted the Texans last week. So maybe the quote-unquote luck will continue again. But I just want to see if some of these Packers DBs, Jair Alexander, Xavier McKinney, if they can just get their hands on some passes because it's not as frequently when he was with the Jets, but Sammy will still give you a couple ones. So I kind of want to see, I guess, the turnover battle here for just Sam Darnold versus Sam Darnold.

Yeah. Yeah. That's it though. It's like make Sam Darnold be the, that Sam Darnold, not this Sam Darnold. That's kind of, yeah, no, the Vikings offense and kind of, you know, I hear all these offenses that are like, Oh, we're going to change this. And it's so much theory and it never actually happens, but actually watching this Vikings offense since Kevin O'Connell got there and, and,

how justin jefferson gets played and how they mitigated that how they actually still pop him open with the designer plays a lot of stuff from the slot and just other and just really telling the quarterbacks throw him the ball no matter what that happens to uh but you know just even personnel wise that it as in a hawkinson that was a way to all right we gotta give our quarterback more options if jefferson's gonna get double teamed all right someone's gonna get single teamed can they win

And the other way, you know, those guys have been banged up this year. Jalen Naylor has actually stepped in admirably, I would say, have a couple of botches, but he's a pretty talented guy. But the run game, as I keep talking about, that's how you punish this. If they have so many eyeballs at number 18, you just run, run, run, run, run until they get out of it. And this is truly what the Vikings went through in 2000 from 1998 to 2004 when they had a guy named Randy Moss.

and that's why those run games were good, and that's why it was just because you're daring them to blink and go, okay, never mind. We got to load the box. We got to send a blitz, and then you catch them, and then that's where you throw the haymaker. Kevin O'Connell's done a really nice job of kind of like

doing this now? Like he, he knows the answers now. He's not full of like, Oh, they're running cover too. But I, I think this is interesting because the Packers defense coordinator, uh, Jeff Hathaway, he's more of a single high guy. He's done a little cover to this year, but he's about 50, 50 on single high to high. So I'm,

Does he just kind of go, all right, screw my man, my blitzes, my cover three that I want to do with McKinney in the back and just do the cover to do the Justin Jefferson formula and dare that your linebackers can play the run, dare that they can play the run consistently?

I'm curious. It's another game is who blinks first, which I think is fun. Does he listen to Jair Alexander, who claims that he shuts down Justin Jefferson, but never mentions that most of the time he has double team help. Every time he's manned up, he has a safety bracketing with him. But I think that's hilarious. Like, what a troll move. Because he knows. He knows no one's going to double check that. And so he can say. And so Jefferson and the coaches get all pissed off about it. So I'm curious. I'm curious who blinks first. So I think this one's a pretty fun one.

scheme matchup. Where are you on the Packers defense right now?

Because I really, I feel like through three weeks, I don't really have a firm grasp of like how I should feel about this group. I watched Titans offense versus Packers defense this morning and I thought I'd be a little more inspired. Right. But I feel more they're just middle of the pack right now. They don't, they kind of do everything. McKinney was playing well, like several guys are playing well at moments, but there's just not, I mean, there's guys running open all the time, which is that usually means guys aren't communicating well. Guys are,

heads are spinning a little bit so i don't know i don't want to like comment like good or bad yet i still think they're working through things they look better than they did week one i would say i would say the last two weeks they look better but also that's opponents uh so yeah i saw i was just gonna hedge and say kind of middle of the package right now pun intended because i was looking at something like their efficiency numbers like oh this is pretty good and you go back you watch it this is fine and you're like oh wait the level is imploded

And the Colts had some bad turnovers. Levis was rolling for a minute. He was. Yeah, and that's...

You know, you don't want, you don't want to be the defense that Levis is rolling for a minute and then not good. And then three turnovers, you know? Yeah. Yeah. And I mean, that's what they've done. Like shout out to McKinney and stuff like that. But again, they could play single high, like, and are you more scared of Michael Pittman or Justin Jefferson? Are you more scared of no offense that Deandre Hopkins at this stage of his career or Calvin Ridley or anything? Calvin, Calvin, I think had one, I think it was him had such a,

Calvin Ridley play in the first quarter. He, it was like a bootleg and he like literally walks out of bounds. Yeah. I was going to say misjudged it and landed out of bounds. Basically. I know exactly what you're talking about. As soon as you said it, I can see Lev is like, I'm like, chill, man. Like just you're fine. Like you're fine. Yeah. So, so Calvin, come on, man. But yeah, I, I say Packers and I kind of waiting to see TBD. This is a great opportunity for him, I guess. But go on the other side.

Really depends on how much Jordan Love plays. If he plays, I think he is. Jordan Love playing or not? I think he is. He's practicing, but he practiced last week. I don't know. LaFleur is loving this. Like he just loves to play games. So Packers offense, Vikings defense. What are you checking out? This is, I think it's kind of, a lot of it depends on Love play. It's so quarterback dependent, but yeah, um,

Honestly, I guess what I would want to see is if Jordan Love is healthy enough to play, will the Vikings just blitz the absolute crap out of him and just say,

you know, we're going to think you kind of how Aaron Donald did when he tested Alex mislead. Like Brian Florida says, we're going to test that knee real quick. We're going to send six more than we, more than we dropped eight. I, I, that's what I kind of want to see, but it is, it is a little bit hard to just guess like what this looks like, because what you can do with Malik wills, who's, who's played great for his standards. Like,

which were really poor in Tennessee. Like he's had, you know, his little breakout in this time where he's been able to start for Green Bay. But like you're preparing for two totally different

wildly different. It's not even, it's damn, you're not even the same sport. You know, it's like, like you're going against like Navy one week and then you're going against, you know, USC the next. Like that's what it kind of feels like. But I think either way, if the Vikings defense can still just put up another blank, like whether it's, it's Willis or Love, because to me, like you did it to San Francisco and Houston. So,

In theory, you know, divisional games call it the wonky, but like in theory, like this defense should absolutely be able to overwhelm Malik Willis. But I think you also have to give like LaFleuris Chops his play call. He's done well to kind of mitigate a lot of the limitations that their quarterback situation is presenting them. So maybe they have the answers to kind of counterpunch.

I am almost looking forward to Malik Willis playing this game. Just so I can see like, all right, LaFleur, what's your plan? Like they held CJ Trout to seven. You got Malik Willis. What's the deal? Right. If service Academy played against Bill Belichick, like, you know, that's got, yeah, yeah, I know this is, yeah, this actually would be his dream. Uh,

I mean, he tried. He tried sometimes, like the Mac Jones three-pass attempt game. But, yeah, it comes down to where the left plays. Like you said, Willis is just such a different animal. They're running wing T, literally wing T offense. I mean, that's what it is. Or wishbone, I should say. Offense with wing backs and everything. I think the one thing is watching this matchup last year, the Vikings' defense is improved. The players know the system better. The players are better. Just that's kind of filling in the holes, even if none of them are

true crazy needle movers they all bump it up just a little bit kind of some of their parts but uh the packers do the one thing in the run game well they do everything in the run game but they do the one thing in the run game that you can get after this fight is defense which is zone runs uh they're middle of the pack as far as how much they use them because they run everything but they're fifth in epa per run uh when they use zone runs so that is where i think that you know how you sort this all out zone duo you don't pull anybody pull

play action off of those plays uh last year they had a great plays with love i mean he threw that haymaker to melton i believe um but one right down the pipe he's willing to stand there against too high and chuck it that's how you have to beat this defense so love is the type of quarterback and this offense is the type of offense that can get after this fightings defense but

Is he playing? So it's all a theory until we see that he's playing. But I am excited to see it. But especially multiple receivers against the zone floor as you know, because it does a little bit everything. So I think that's gonna be a really, really fun game. I think everyone thinks that onto another fun game. This is Sunday night football. We got the Bills at the Ravens. The Ravens are minus two and a half. So again, kind of feeling kind of neutral on this one.

When the Bills have the ball, the Bills offense versus the Ravens defense, what are you checking out, Charles McDonald? The middle of the field. That's where I think that this game can be worn for the Bills offense. I still, like, for the long haul, am not...

all that concerned about the Ravens defense. I think they just have too many good players, but they are going through like a little bit of some of the transition problems that they went through when they first hired Mike McDonald. Cause you know, we all know how it ended where they had one of the best defenses of the two thousands last year, but,

when it started, remember Tua had six touchdowns in Baltimore in a comeback victory when they were up by like a million points and they came back and they had Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddell running uncovers like 60 yards down the field. Obviously that's

Got fixed. It's something that can never happen. You never want to see the safety look like a pitcher that just gave up a home run where they're either going like this, like looking over their head, or they go like this and look straight down when that ball goes over their hair. And we saw both of them in that game. Yeah.

And then it's the why I honor, you know. Yeah, the hands up. Because they want to make sure the TVs catch them. It's not my fault. Not my fault. It's his fault. And then they get to the post game. Actually, no, it was my fault. It was actually, it was my fault. Actually, yeah, yeah. But, you know, it's not that drastic. But I will say, I think...

You know, I think some of their middle of the field stuff has not been quite up to their standard. I don't think, you know, Roquan Smith and coverage, I don't really know when you look at coverage stats how much you should really just automatically assign that to Roquan because a lot of it is just like nearest defender stuff like that. Like Walgham and stuff like that. Yeah. He did give up like 80 yards of coverage against the Cowboys, which is like, hey, you're better than that. You're better than that. And I think this defense as a whole

is better than that. So I think the middle of the field is where this game is really going to matter because James Cook has...

evolved into you know a pretty you know tough running back to play against the offensive line is good we all know josh allen's playing the best quarterback in the league right now so uh we all know like that's where they want to uh attack this defense if they can because i think on the outside that's where it would get tough if you're for the bills because now we got you know she

keon coldman going against like marlon humphrey and some of those other veteran dvs i think you probably want to see if you can just attack the middle of the field and try to keep the game in front of you yeah i think the bills are gonna and josh allen it's gonna be kind of more of the same where it's a lot of nickel dime it's a lot of but but josh allen's performing like you know late career drew breeze so that's all good like usually i'd be like i don't like that but nope that's fine i think that's what you have to do i think the ravens are going to try and

run everything kaleidoscope scheme you know just kind of just hey do this do this just to try and get out guessing at one point or fool him at one point he has a lot of control now so it's been pretty cool to watch him kind of dissect things the ravens run defense has been good which but they played the cowboys and the raiders so that that's one of those where it's like i do think they're i think they're like they rate highly like accessory and stuff like that but i think it's more of their

a step down from that. Actually, it's more what they looked like maybe against the chiefs. But I, I think that, you know, Travis Jones is playing well up front, but again, I agree with you that this middle of the field passing game or run game wise is how you kind of get them. You try to get them being funky and you catch them.

or you wad it up. But I think the Bills attack, like shout out Joe Brady. I really want to say what he really has my respect now. You know, he did some cool stuff with the Panthers, but I kind of was like, all right, too many choice routes for my liking. But I will say that he is

Even though he has a passing game background, he's willing to just pound it. He doesn't chase the siren song, the stats. They come when you have a good offense. Those stats come naturally. I think a lot of play callers kind of always forget that. They chase those touchdowns in yards. Yeah, I get it. They want to add jobs. But I hate it also as a son of an offensive line coach and a guy that went to Wisconsin. But he keeps dialing up.

the run after the run. Okay. Maybe a screen, a bubble. He never chases the dragon. You know, he never chases like, Oh, okay, here we go. And I think the design plays have been really good. So I do want to give him his props, him in the offensive line coach. I think it's Aaron, Aaron, what's his face? Aaron Cromer, Cromer.

Aaron Kroemer. Sounds about right. Aaron Kroemer. Shout out to him, too. He's doing a fantastic job. But I think this is going to be fun. The Joe Brady stuff is interesting because I didn't really... I felt like I was agnostic for the most part because, I mean, you have the LSU offense and, you know, people there were like, well, how much is he responsible for this? And my thing was, man, you got two Hall of Fame wide receivers. All right, let's see what happens when you move forward. And then the Panther stuff was...

I feel like towards the end of the Matt Rule tenure with Tepper, it just got...

sloppy and messy and like it always has for the past couple years with them. So you don't really know there. And then when he got to Buffalo, like basically, I guess since the run game kind of caught on last year, I think he's really figured out what he wants this offense to look like and how it can be structured and how he can fit everything. Like you have what can be a good run game without Josh Allen. And now you have Josh Allen with that too. I think he's layered everything well while also, you know,

dealing with the real fact that, hey, we are counting on rookies and young players at skill spots, and they're just going to have to step up because their quarterback's good enough to win a Super Bowl, and I think he's done a really good job just meshing all of that. And...

There's something to their pass catchers that are all B-level guys, but they're all smart. They're all willing to get physical. Don Kincaid will get physical against a DB, not so much a linebacker or a DN, but Shakir will. Keon Coleman will. Matt Collins will. They do the dirty work for each other, and

I think the answer to slow down this offense is run man coverage, but you won't do that against Josh Allen because he'll just scramble out of it and get 10 yards a pop. You can't do that. They're going to get a lot of zone, and they've got a lot of guys that can beat zone. I've talked to Matt about this this week, and I just think that they're built

they have a lot of answers like and and then when they don't have answers they have the guy that's playing like mvp right now so it's yeah they're rolling right now did you basically just think of like how you described josh allen this segment late career drew brees that also runs a four or five okay at 240 pounds 240 pounds he could throw it over the moon and he's and he's handling protections i know i i was on me in a show this week and i said that i was like what like

Are we grasping what we're watching right now? Like this is, it's that David Montgomery create the running back kind of thing, but now we're doing it with a quarterback right here. I mean, mentally and physically, but going out to the other side of the ball. Also interesting. Both units playing, finding their way. Bill's offense or Bill's defense is playing quite well, but the Ravens offense, Bill's defense. What are you checking out Charles? When you watch this? I guess I just want to see,

Can the Ravens feel like they can assemble like...

a semblance of a drop-back game if they need to play from behind. Because, like, last week was obviously their dream. You know, their Cowboys are super soft on the interior. You just get to absolutely mow them down. You run 45 times. Lamar Jackson throws 15 passes for, like, 12 yards a pop. That's what they want to do. Obviously, I think Lamar Jackson can—I mean, he's 1-2 MVP, so he can handle, like, a bigger passing palette.

than what they put forth last week, but that's the ideal game for them because at the end of the day, Lamar Jackson being able to use his legs, that's way different than most quarterbacks. You're not looking at that as a dead play or a negative play. Usually it's something really good for you. So I just want to see...

If the Bills come out scoring and they get into a situation where they have to drop back and throw it, basically, do they have the personnel to kind of figure that out? Because I would question their offensive line's ability to hold up against the Bills' pass rush. If it gets to that point where you're down by seven, you're down by 10 in third and fourth quarter,

Now you got Von Miller and Ed Oliver coming after you. That's a tough proposition. You know how week one felt. Yeah. Versus Lamar running, Lamar running, which is like, it's dangerous, but you don't want that. You don't want that all the time. Yeah. Because disaster can strike on those plays too. But, you know, I think just the evolution or if they have the next step on the drop back passing game, that will be really interesting to watch for this game. Because I don't really think that

I don't think they have the advantage in terms of like wider receiver talent versus DB talent in this game, even though I don't really know if like the Bills are really doing anything crazy in terms of like their talent right now because they're still in a transition period on that side. It's just, you know, you're still relying a lot on Lamar and Derek and we'll see what happens when they get into this game. Yeah, you basically nailed it for me as well as how I see this game. I hope we both nail it. Otherwise, then we both look like fools. But I...

I think it's the bills. The bills are going to go light bodies. And that's what they do. They go nickel to the match nickel to everything. And last week, Ravens are going high formation, Pat Ricard, 290 pound fullback with their country behind him. And that was what was working. And I think that's what they kind of have to do this game. I'm totally with you. I think the bills have the advantage.

when the Ravens have to pass the ball, because I think this is kind of the annoying defense to go against for this offense. I just kind of mentioned the other side where it's like, oh, all these bills guys are bees, bees pluses. Josh Allen's performing well against them. They protect well against it. Like the Ravens are more chaotic against zone. That's when it gets into Lamar can kind of maybe get into creation mode a little too quickly because they're

He doesn't have the biggest receiving core. And this big guy, Mark Andrews, they're barely playing at this point in time because he's not the best blocker. And he's battling some stuff, it seems like. But tight ends, I think, have to show up because that's where you want to attack this defense. They're running around the zone, so those intermediate short areas. Lamar's willing to chuck it in those spots. It's just that he has to feel comfortable. I'm glad you mentioned Bill's pass rush, though. They can still do it.

you know, at all or in all them, they can do it. So that's, I think they do have an advantage, but I do think the Ravens can run the ball because they have the size. So it's a game script game. Totally. I mean, I think you kind of nailed at the beginning. It's totally a game script game. I did like the Rashad Bateman touchdown design. That was fun. Did you see the route?

It was like a question mark. It was like the Riddler route. That's what I'm going with on that one. I'm trying to remember what we called that. We called that a spinnaker at one place I was at. You know what I was doing? Because it wasn't like a sail and a spinnaker, I guess. It was like a sail. I was going to say, whenever we were talking about offense, I was...

I know. How many routes do you know? Go, slant. You know, it's funny because we've talked a lot about the hubris of football players when you're in it. I learned a lot of route stuff after I was done playing. Oh, man. Defense is tough for me. I knew some in college, but no. GA, once I got way after that, I was like, oh, that's why you guys did that? That's how that match rule works? Got it. I just knew what beat it. That's all.

We are going to take a quick break and then we're gonna come back with a little Foreman offense.

Forget one-size-fits-all diets. With Noom, you get a personalized weight loss plan that's tailored to your lifestyle. Have cravings? Food FOMO? Noom can help you lose weight while still enjoying your favorite foods. Noom's users love the flexible approach, blending psychology and biology to help you lose weight in a way that's sustainable for you. Plus, you can rest assured Noom's approach is grounded in science. They've published more than 30 peer-reviewed scientific articles describing their methods and effectiveness.

Stay focused on what's important to you with Noom's psychology and biology-based approach. Sign up for your trial today at Noom.com. AT&T customers, switching to T-Mobile has never been easier. We'll pay off your existing phone and give you a new one free, all on America's largest 5G network. Visit T-Mobile.com slash carrier freedom to switch today.

Pay off up to $650 via virtual prepaid MasterCard in 15 days. Free phone up to $830 via 24-month in-bill credits plus tax. Qualifying port and trade in service on Go5G Next and credit required. Contact us before canceling entire account to continue bill credits or credit stop and balance and required finance agreement is due. All right, we are back in this segment in the four-minute offense. We are going to look at one side of the ball for two of these games, including a Haas fight. Sneaky Haas fight.

which is the Steelers defense versus the Colts offense. Steelers defense battling some injuries, but they still do have the beefy interior plus TJ Watt, plus Minko Fitzpatrick and plenty, plenty of talented players showing for you here. All the fun guys, but

Watching this game, Charles McDonald. Oh, Colts also are underdogs at home. One and a half. Steelers favorite on the road. But when you watch this game, Charles, watch this side of the ball. Colts offense, Steelers defense. What are you checking out? What matchups are you watching? Anything interesting on this side of the ball. How do the Steelers keep getting these games? Like,

They might be 4-0 after this weekend. They have it fairly... I think they might even be more than that. They play Dallas and then Las Vegas after this. Raiders. Jets, Giants, Commanders.

I'm looking to see basically... Mike Thomas on the competition committee. He is. He is. We should think more about that one day, maybe a little bit. I know. Why can't it help the Falcons? Rich McKay is still on there. Yeah. Well, let's not get started on that one. I don't want to burn more friendships than I already have. It's just going to be fascinating to see if Anthony Richardson can get out of this slump, man. Because if not...

Like, they are going to be in for a very long day if they can't get like some consistency in the passing game going. If he can just get I mean, dude, like we know he can hit some of these throws that he's just flat out missing. Right.

which is the frustrating part. It's like you watch him, you know, sit in the pocket and the play starts and he's reading it out and he's getting to the right spot and then just out of bounds. Like, yo, come on. Like, okay, you know, one of the frustrating places to me was the interception that he threw to Petrie in the tech

this game. I'm like, dude, like you read it outright. It was just a horrible throw, like a better throw. You might have caught him in stride for a touchdown and end up going the other way. So like he's just going to have to play better this week because I don't I don't think that they can win this game just trying to run it.

you know, just trying to just run over the Steelers defense because one, they're tough and two, that's exactly what the Steelers are trying to do on the other side and they can run on your defense for sure. So I think that you just, you're going to have to get more from Anthony Richardson. I think when I look at like just his talent level versus the cornerbacks, I know Joey Porter Jr. is a good player, but like,

The other guys, they seem gettable to me for a guy of Anthony Richardson's talent, but he's just going to have to do it. So I hate to just do these games where it's like, no, it's all on the quarterback, but I think they're just going to be able to play well for them to win. But that's really what it comes down to because you've got to prove it. The NFL is not just you do it once. It's not that you just do it one game. It's do you do it every play? Do you do it every series? Do you do it every quarter? Do you do it every half? Then every game. Then every season. Yeah.

And John or John the tail, Anthony Richardson has just kind of shown that it's all highs and some, some really low lows. And I, I I'm glad that you comment on one of them. Like even he had a pick in which one he had an interception in the last game where he makes the right read. And then he just tries a trick shot and he just does the little foot stuff. And it's like, Hey man, your fundamentals are actually pretty good. And then he's just like, once in a while, I was like, Oh, I'm going to try this. Like I'm going to go sidearm and spray my legs and do all that. And it just,

just doesn't work. It just misses. And I, I feel like he's in a trick shot competition or a like trick competition at X games. And, and I feel like I want to take away that card from him and be like, I I'd ground him taking away your phone. So you do your homework, which is just hitch up and throw it on time. We,

which he has done. That's what's frustrating. So I was about to say, he needs to go work out with Gino Smith for an off season. Yeah. Gino would be like, no, we are running the same footwork, same drops, same bro, a hundred times a day. Gino and Dak. Yeah. Yes. Drill this in one, two, three, four, five, fall out. Or the first Missy through like 10 yards over Alec Pierce's head. He's trying to no look it. He's trying to look off Kyle or Gordon. And so he threw out and he does like a no look like Matthew Stafford thing and tries to throw the curl.

And I was just like, you don't get to do that yet until you can prove you could do it and practice probably like you don't get to try those in the game. And then the one day through the running back said it was just bad or down set in the flat. That was just bad. And that's when you double hitches and stuff. That was what I was talking about the other day when he trusted his left. But yeah, it's the run game, though.

Colts run game. Pretty dang good. Pretty good. John McTaylor's looking great. They have a right scheme for them. Anthony Richardson's threat of his legs does do a lot. I will say that. The Bears defenders, three of them were going with him any time he carried out a fake. But the Steelers' rush defense, you already mentioned it, their second in rushing success rate. Their first overall in EPA per play right now, the Steelers' defense. Fourth in defensive DVOA, which does adjust for maybe

Maybe some of the softer offenses they have faced in a couple of those weeks. Not the Falcons. I do think they're okay. But yeah, they're physical. Colts are more soundness and smoke and mirrors. And with the RPO game and the threat of the zone read. So it's a fun little fist, you know, hard punching versus the drunken boxer.

You know, that's kind of what we're going with this. The Steelers also, I'm curious about the play action. Steelers haven't faced a lot of play action. It's only 10 pass attempts for 49 yards and two sacks. So I think that's because people are scared of their pass rushers, Watt and everything. But so curious to try that. Make a Fitzpatrick, try something, catches Richardson once or twice. So that's going to be an interesting matchup too. I do think like just on like a minuscule level, like how –

the Colts decide to handle the TJ Watt problem will be interesting because like... High Smith is out. Dude, TJ... TJ is hilarious because to me, like...

He, I mean, it's complimentary. He plays kind of like a high school player sometimes where it's just like, no, I'm getting up the field, bro. I'm getting right. Ball snap. I'm, I'm flying, which, Hey, it can get you defensive player of the year and a hundred million dollar contract, but sometimes you get gashed behind it. So I kind of want to see just how they handle that, how aggressively he plays up the field because he has been on fire to start the season. Yeah. He's teeing off on everybody. And, and,

Just like in week one, kind of, with Highsmith out, they're going to play DeMarvin Leal. Remember that name? Yeah, I do. Not the most physical guy, if I remember correctly, right? Yeah, Charles Cross and Edmund Neal sent him to hell in college. Right, that's what I remember. So I think that that's going to be to the offense's left. So get ready, too. I think a lot of reads and a lot of runs are going to be going to the Colts' left in this game as well. Pretty fun one, though. Yeah.

Sneaky good one. Other side of the ball, kind of interesting too, but we'll see. All right, another one that we're going to check out in the four-minute offense is Eagles offense, Bucs defense, which is something we feel like it's a clockwork. We talk about once a year. We're going to talk about this matchup. I think there's an elephant in the room with it, but Charles, when you're watching this side of the ball in this game,

What are you focusing on? I mean, this matchup is interesting because one, this defense has messed with Jalen Hurts a lot in the regular season and the playoffs. Two, this defense is not the same quality as the previous ones that Jalen Hurts has faced. That's important. Three, he will still be without A.J. Brown and likely Devonta Smith in this game, which might make things tough on him because he's

He hasn't really been all that good this year, even though you go back, you look at the Saints game and you see like 29 for 38 for three or something yards. I'm like, dude, it doesn't even compute what I feel like I just watched. Crossing route way did a lot. Right. You know, you get the third and 16 dump off to Goddard and he runs like 40 yards down the field. I'm like, dude, what is this? But

He, I mean, dude, at some point, like you're making $250 million. Like you're at the top of the market with the other guys. You're going to have to rise above this and show that you can be the guy to kind of lead the charge and go out and score points at will against this Tampa Bay defense. That's a little bit diminished. This would be a good opportunity for him to get that, you know, that monkey off his back. But it just feels like, especially since, you know,

I would say before that, but really since the losing started last year, he just hasn't really looked like a quarterback that's consistently capable of overcoming what defenses are putting in front of him. Sometimes the athleticism will get him out of sticky spots and he can make second effort plays, longer extended plays, but

You know, it's really tough to live in that style of football without your top two best receivers. So I would imagine that Bowles is still going to be Bowles, even though it's not quite working. Levante David's not moving as fast as he used to. But still, this is a hurdle he's going to have to get over. Yeah, I...

Yeah. First off, I want to say they should be, again, I'm just going to emphasize that they should run Saquon 40 times in this game. And for, there should be a Saquon 200 yard game, spread them out, get them in light person personnel and, and run it. I think they, that's what you need to do. You mentioned Devante Smith and AJ Brown. He also might be out with Lane Johnson and next gen stats at a,

with without stats with lane johnson which i think matches the eye test completely uh with lane johnson and and their career or in jalen hurts career they average the eagles average 7.8 yards per pass attempt which is second highest uh they allow a 33.5 pressure rate which is 13 low 13th lowest without lane johnson strap in for this they get 6.7 yards per pass attempt which is 24th they

They allow a 42.3% pressure rate, which is the highest in the NFL. Lane Johnson better play. And I think Cam Juergens, the new center, has done an admirable job. I actually think he's been pretty dang good. And also...

all this talk this offseason about how much Jalen Hurts is going to handle the protections. He hasn't done any of it. It's still Cam Juergens. It's still Jeff Stoutland sorting it out, which is fine. That's how they want to do it. It's all about how you want to do it. Every system is different. So I just think that's just funny that like all these talking points just went, well, it's what a quarterback is supposed to do, you know? I

I, I, I'm a big believer. This is just my, my football dogma. My belief system is just that if you get paid, you're on the second contract, you better at least have some handle protections, but you just, that's what kind of frustrates me when I see some of these guys, I should say frustrates, but it's just, I, I just, I don't agree with it completely. Um, no, you have a style you like to watch. I do. I do. And I think more of the best offenses are doing it, which is great. Hello bills. Uh,

But I also just, you know, Todd Bowles is going to shy away from what he does. He's going to challenge this offensive line, simulated creepers, blitzes. I think that's a better option when they're out without their top two options receiver. And you might keep the running back in protection, even if you only bring four. And I think they're going to run a lot of those simulated creepers when they only bring four. They're kind of due against the Lions in week two. But again, I just think that

You got to they got pounded by you. That's the best way for them to combat this, especially if they're without Lane Johnson, because I just think if they pass the ball, they're going to have moments just like it. But you're not have you don't have Adrian Brown about they submit that just makes that a little dicier proposition for me. I do also want to mention the other side of the ball. Just briefly, Jalen Carter versus Cody Mock might be a snuff film.

the right guard for the, for the box. Yeah. That might be, that might be ugly. Jalen has been on a war path to start your defensive player of the year pick, right? He was, he was my defense player. That's better than part.

Everyone throws the ball too quick on Parsons. He's not going to rack up the stats. That's kind of what's been so surprising to me about Bryce Huff's start. We're like, bro, you still got the same thing. You got the detonator at three technique next year. Why aren't you getting more pressures? It's the same thing you had last year. I know. Their defense says. Their grass muster all is already.

I'm excited to watch this one. It's a great proven ground game for a lot of people and a lot of units, I think, involved with it. We are going to take our last break and then we are going to come back with Slopwatch. See you guys in a sec.

You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you? Deliver that feeling to your customers, every time. Memorable moments like these are key to building your business and your brand. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. So you can continue to build smarter, more meaningful relationships with your customers. Build smarter digital relationships with your customers. And make every moment count with Klaviyo.

Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM.

Slop watch time. This is just a few games that Charles and I think are interesting in some way, shape, or form. It's for the sickos. It's for someone that's like, hey, okay, I have this game on in the multi-view. You know, I've got to fill out the four screens. Let's put that one on. Let's fill it out. So we're going to start. Actually, this isn't that sloppy. It's not too sloppy. Yeah, we've got the Rams offense versus the Bears defense. Bears are three-point favorites at home. But actually, this is kind of...

Bears defense is awesome, like really good. And then the Rams offense showed some life last week even with all the injuries. So when you're watching this sloppy, when you're diving into the mud with this game, Charles, what do you check it out? Can Matthew Stafford just put on a Superman cape again? That's all they got right now, you know?

Okay, well, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Before I say this, and I know no one gives a crap about my fantasy team, but I need to get this off my chest real quick. Why the hell did the Rams draft Blake Corham? Why did they do that? Why did they do a lot of things, my friend? Why did they trade Ernest Jones? I don't know. Why did they do a lot of things? I don't know. Why did they switch their center the week before the season again?

I don't know. Okay, but regardless, yeah, I just want to see if Matthew Stafford can do it again. I don't... Like, the 49ers defense is in a weird spot where, like, the top talent, like, you've still got Fred, who's, again, like, playing out of his mind this season, and Nick Bosa's playing well, but outside of that, it's...

It's not quite from a totality standpoint like what you used to see from the 49ers defense. I guess I'll probably say that I feel this Bears defense is definitely better than where the 49ers are.

So I just kind of want to see if Matthew Stafford could do it again against a tougher defense. Maybe might face a little bit more like consistent team pass rush than what the 49ers are offering right now, where they're kind of a one man show. But if he can do that, man, like I am all aboard the Matthew Stafford survivor train this year, just gutting it out, trying to get to week seven. When did my guys come back? If we can get like if we can be like four and two.

3-3 at week 7. We might have something here. But it's going to take another Herculean performance. Yeah. He looks like an old boy. Just going down the hall. That's what Matthew Stafford did. He was on fire last week. They found out about the 49ers defense as far as they figured out what to poke at. They were like, oh, if we put two tight ends, you guys suck. Oh, okay. Because you're going to put your linebackers on the field. The 49ers are like,

threw up the white flag. We'll talk about them in a sec. But yeah, they were kind of just like, no, okay, we're going nickel against this. But yeah, the Rams put it last week because they have all their receiver injuries. They tried out 12 personnel, two tight ends, 24 snaps. All of last year, 58 snaps of 12. They had 24 last week. Bears, though, are not the 49ers defense. The Bears have three

good linebackers that they trot out there. They match you a four, three, the bears have run base 23 times this year. They've allowed 51 yards to 23 plays, 51 yards on first down. They faced 11 plays out of base personnel or when they've been a base personnel, they've allowed 11 yards, one yard per play. They've yet to allow a single successful play. So,

The Rams kind of like new countermeasure or new answer for this kind of new, because I do, God, the Rams try at least. They're like, hey, they tried. I do respect their staff and McVay for trying and Stafford for trying. They're awesome. But it's this changeup that they threw last week at the 49ers and got them to yield. The Bears aren't going to yield. And if they want to go 11 like they like to, usually the Bears got good 11 personnel with Kyle or Gordon out there. So I think this Bears defense is good.

slowly getting the respect they deserve because it's a legit top five defense. But the Rams are going to try and find an answer. So I think it's just more of a like, what is your answer? Because I think they take away the natural ones that they have. Just survive, Matthew. Just survive. It feels like his sin for leaving Detroit and getting to LA and winning a Super Bowl now is like every other year of his career is just going to be Detroit Lions cosplay. That's the monkey park.

Yeah. So he's got to deal with this year where everyone got hurt and you're right back in 2008, my friend. He's like, yeah, it's like, no, their teammates are actually good. They're just never available. That's that's going to be it. Hey, got the ring. I should get the respect they deserve. But actually before before Lions get on me, I should say 2009 because 2008 was a year they went winless to get staff ticket to get him. And I know they'd be a little sticklers about the team. So let me just correct myself.

Because 2008, that was when Matt Ryan got drafted. I have a lot. Yes, it was. And Long was the number one pick. Yeah, so Stafford was 09. That's right. Because it was like, oh, you're from University of Georgia and you're the number one pick in Atlanta. They became like friends, right? Like the Matts did. Both good guys. Going on. This one's a little more sloppy. This is Commander's offense, which I know most people are not saying is sloppy. They are...

Top of the charts right now. They are putting up all the numbers. Jay and Daniels is throwing go balls every which way. The run game is running all over the place. Facing the Cardinals defense. And this will show you kind of how these teams are matching up. The Cardinals are three and a half point favorites at home. But...

When you watch this side of the ball in this slop fest, actually, it's, I think it's a fun slop fest. This is like, yeah, this is like, this is like your domain. Yeah, I know. This is not, this is great. Uh, I know this is actually like my smallest notes. I think the commander's got to run it. And I think the Cardinals defense, which showed more life in the second half, they got a, you know, this is a great proven ground game game for them because if they're equipped to

This defense, which is funky, which has a lot of college influence. It's like a spread defense. You know, it's like an air raid defense. If you're just kind of like going those, like want to use those terms. This is the best offense in theory that they should go against. A team that wants to spread to run, does a lot of funkiness, does a lot of staple offense.

I know this is like a slur this week, but staple college concepts, which is just not like some of those college concepts or NFL concepts. It's not that it's not that crazy anymore. I think they more just mean the formations is more collegey and the tempo and all those things like that's where the college comes from.

But I think this Cardinals defense is one of the ones in theory, again, that should be equipped to go against it. The Lions offense is like the worst type of offense that they go against, and they had decent answers. So I am curious now. This is a fun little styles kind of game. I think they're going to give up points. I think the commanders will get their points, but I do think the Cardinals will have some fun kind of countermeasures against it, especially a team that's flying high. You put a target on your back.

you play well in a night game, next week the next team wants to take you off. So I think this will be a really fun one because that Cardinals defense showed up in the second half last week. I think that...

I think describing the Cardinals defense is like the air raid is perfect because like if you know the origins of the air raid, it was kind of like, bro, how can we throw for a bunch of yards without having good players? And that's kind of what the Cardinals are doing. Like, how can we play defense without having actually a lot of good defensive players out there? So you spread it out. You play a little safe. You get funky every once in a while. And I think that that's really how they're just going to have to play it in this week as well. Yeah.

Yeah, the Cardinals defense has like three nose tackle types and then the rest of their front sevens like all interchangeable.

So they do all these funky pressure looks. I mean, the Lions offensive line, which is in pass protection, which is one of the better ones. They're the better coached ones. Their rules are really good. The Cardinals got them at least three, four times, which is saying something. Most get them none. They got Goff a couple times. I mean, threw a pick. He had another third down where they threw a funky coverage behind it where, you know, Zayven Collins is dropping. He can be a three-tack. He can be an edge player. He's playing really well right now. They got Dennis Gardick.

He's like a folk hero, man. He's actually a good player, dude. But yeah, it's a funky defense versus a funky offense. I'm actually kind of excited to watch it. All right. Last one in the muck. This one's really in the muck. This is Patriots offense versus 49ers defense, which sounds like, man, that's like a prestige matchup. Yeah.

49ers are 10.5-point favorites at home. But we're going to look at the Patriots' offense versus the 49ers' defense because, I don't know, they got some simple answers that might work. At least I think so. I would say, could you just draw them into a rock fight and maybe, like... Get them on the ground, man. Yeah. Turn two o'clock. Like, if you play magic, turn two o'clock on and just...

Get under center and eye formation. Hey, they haven't been too stout as they've normally been. So basically, I guess the game plan is avoid 54,

If you can, it's much easier said than done. And then basically just try to keep the ball out of harm's way in terms of turnovers and stuff like that. Because the Patriots, like they're one of those offense where if you have like a pick, it might be game over because they just don't really have enough juice. But I think kind of in the way that they beat the Bengals in week one, although I don't expect them to win this game, but maybe you could just bludgeon them to a point where you could cover a 10 point spread.

which is like pure slop material. Cause I don't think they're going to win. I don't, I don't, I also don't know, you know, not, not the worst thing to spend too much time. It's like, I don't know how much success the 49ers offense is going to have because they haven't been up to their standard, you know, consistently over the first three weeks of season. So I think this has total rock fight potential over it. And Hey, if the Patriots can run the ball and play some tough defense, they could at least keep it somewhat close until the end. Yeah.

Yeah, I look at this as a foreigners win Patriots cover kind of game. And it's because the Patriots offense, their natural answers. And they have a mini bye week, which you always have to remember. They got they play that Thursday night game early. So they got a little mini bye. Sounds like I feel like they're hinting at Drake Mays coming in next week. They're all dropping into he looks really good in practice, guys. So, yeah, that's usually means they're leading on to something. But.

We talked about a little bit with the Rams offense and how they got after this team, this defense, and the Patriots love to do that. This is bully ball game. This is, yeah, like you said, a rock fight. Don't turn the ball over. This is true. They have to play offense like how people thought the

The Patriots played offense in Brady's second year or his first year starting. And then you watch those highlights and there's Brady ripping digger outs, ripping corners. And it's like, you guys act like this guy was a caretaker, but they just look at run pass ratios. Like guys, different sport back then, different sport. Oh, you know, this guy that has no tools and he was, you know, when the sixth round, he's six, five, two 30 went to Michigan. What are we talking about? But,

But the Patriots love to be big bodies. They crave it on offense. This is, dude, the 49ers go, hey, we are going to just match with nickel, which I don't really like. But then if they match with base with three linebackers, they're bad. They're really bad out of it. So that's kind of a, oh, shoot. Their simplest answer is the one that we have to defend against. So I'm curious what their answers are going to be. Also, just a little scheme thing.

Patriots love running duo. Love it. They have the fifth most attempts at duo in the NFL this year. They have above 60% success rate, which is outstanding.

49ers, unsurprisingly, terrible at stopping duo. This is all from Sports Info Solutions. They faced a ton of it. They're bad at defending it, which is not surprising given their personnel and everybody. Duo is very much a, if you have lighter bodies, if you're more gap shooty defenses, it's better against that because you're just going to bully it and you can get those five, six yards easily. But they faced the third most. They've led a success rate, hold on to your hat here, of 78%.

on those runs of deal. A lot of the fifth most EPA. So yeah, 78% success rate. I'm like a decent amount, decent clip too. So I think that's the game plan. No mistakes from Jacoby. Yeah. This is the true slop fest. I, I, I, this is all me all like, this is, I just circled.

I guess the easiest way to stop Fred Warner at this point is just to throw Javon Hargrave in his lap, you know? So that's what you're going to have to do. He's not even there now. No, he's hurt. So it's her name here. Yeah, I know. It's, it's, yeah, I know. It's, I'm curious. There are teammates on him. That's how you can slow Fred Warner down. They want to get our guy Mustafa on the field. So they talked about, oh, we might go more dime or more nickel. Not the game to do it. Like this. Yeah. Later, later down the season. You don't need no DBs this week.

Yeah, I know. I know this is a true 1992 matchup right now. Other side of the ball, I'm curious too, because I want to see how the Patriots find some answers. I think they didn't like that. How they talked after the Thursday night game was like, oh, we just got got. The Jets got us there, which they did. So I want to see their pride in this game. Well, thanks for rolling in the muck.

that was fun yeah that was great baby love that segment that's a good thing yeah slop them up swap those steaks up we're closing it out today matt and i will be back on tuesday

What else are you doing this weekend, Charles? - Georgia, Alabama, Saturday night. - Oh yeah. - Yeah, I'm watching. - I got Wisconsin-USC, classic Big Ten matchup. - So our friend Richard Johnson, he has introduced me into a contingent of Georgia fans in New York. And usually for like big games, we'll go out to a bar somewhere, but for this one, no.

No, I got to stay at home. Oh, solo watch? I got to sit at home. That's me all the way. I can't because this is a game I actually want to pay attention to. Yeah, we're playing South Carolina or Tennessee before they got a defense. Let's go to the bar. But this, no, I need to lock in. It's a no pleasantries game. Yeah. As in you don't want to make small talk. You're just truly watching the game. Yeah, yeah. It's not a social event for that. So I'm with you on that. Yeah. I was going to make the drive to LA, but it's...

It's the wife's wife's birthday. So, uh, yeah. I didn't think that was the best call. I'm not a good idea. I didn't think so either, but yeah, go badgers now with a backup quarterback. We'll see. But I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice. Where can they find you? Charles? Find me on Twitter at four Burt's. Yeah. That's all I got. Find us on Yahoo. We've got some articles this week. We'll be writing more.

Check those out. Subscribe to us, please. Follow us, please. Rate us, please. Watch us on YouTube, please, at the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Also follow Yahoo Sports on Snapchat. Thanks to Brett, Stone, and Adi behind the scenes. Everybody enjoy your weekend. It's week four. Throw the fours up. Four horsemen, fourth quarter, whatever you want to say. Thanks for listening. Fourverts. See you guys next time.

you