Final predictions for every NFC team: Vikings, Cowboys, Eagles & more
01:44:59 Share

On this episode of Football 301, we have the NFC win totals predictions, we'll call it.

All that fun stuff with the NFC. Matt Harmon joins me. It's under two hours this time, just barely, but we made it. See you guys in a sec. Credit Karma is your evolved financial assistant, making managing your finances simpler and more tailored to you. Join us at creditkarma.com to start your personalized financial journey today and continue to grow with our innovations. Credit Karma, evolve your finances. Okay, it's time to commit. 20%.

2024 is the year for prioritizing yourself. Begin your new smile journey with Bite, and you could start seeing results in just two to three weeks. Just order your at-home impression kit today for only $14.95 at Bite.com. Bite clear aligners are doctor-directed and delivered to your door. Treatment costs thousands less than braces. Plus, they offer financing options, accept eligible insurance, and you can pay with your HSA FSA.

Get 80% off your impression kit when you use code WONDERY at Byte.com. That's B-Y-T-E dot com. Start your confidence journey today with Byte. Byte.

Hello and welcome to Football 301. Another beefy, meaty show for you. Dripping with blood. It's cooked rare on this show on Football 301. I'm more of a medium rare guy, but I am going to say it's like that. But to help me get into the NFC win totals prediction, an excuse for us to prove you all 16 of these teams. If you haven't listened to AFC One, we did that Tuesday with Charles McDonald. But this time around,

For the junior league, no, the senior league, the senior circuit in the NFL, the NFC is my good friend, Matt Harmon. Welcome back, Matt. Great to see you today. Great to see you, Nate. Yeah, appreciate you guys holding it down for me. The last couple episodes that I missed, missed seeing you guys in LA. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to be a part of that. But yeah, man, it's great to be back. And if I could be teed up,

for a show, you know, talking meat and medium rare for the correct temperature to eat your steaks. I'm very happy. You've made me a very happy man today. It's going to be a cool center. You know, it's going to be, you know, it's going to medium red. You know, that's exactly how we'll cook it. Hopefully, it's to your specifications. We're getting a good sear on this thing. There's going to be some spite. There's going to be some heat. That's something people don't understand. You have to have the sear to trap in the juices. It's all that. But

Like I said before, we are going to be throwing out our win totals prediction for every NFC team. We'll go division by division, hopefully a little more concise than our two-hour, 15-minute barn burner that we had the other day, which was your first comment when we had our meeting the other day. You were just like, it might have to be a little shorter. I was like, no, I got you. I got you. So, yes, like I said, we did AFC on Tuesday, doing NFC today before we hop into it.

Big news if you like money. Yahoo Sports and NBC Sports are teaming up for a million dollar sweepstakes. All you got to do, sign up for a Yahoo Fantasy League for instant entry. Someone's got to win a million bucks and do it by week one of the NFL season, which is next week, by the way. Next Thursday is week one starts, which is blowing my mind. I'm watching college football tonight, like real week one. Florida State Georgia Tech already did it, but still. More college football tonight, but details. All right, yahoo.com slash fantasy million. Like I said, someone's got to win it.

All right, Matt, you're ready to hop right into this. Let's just get right into it. Let's grease the wheels, jump right into the NFC. We're going to NFC North. Again, division by division, we'll go win totals from betmgm.com. They will start with the lowest win total and work our way upwards. So for the NFC North, which is a pretty packed division, we have the Vikings at seven and a half wins. Matt, why do you think they can go over or under seven and a half wins? Anything that's standing out to you when you look at the Vikings this season?

So, yeah, I think they're going to go under seven and a half. And the reason that I think this is, you know, I was actually just having this conversation with my buddy James Coe yesterday and clearly been away from podcasting too long, obviously dealing with the personal situation in my life the last couple weeks. One of the things I thought, though, you know, being away from shows, I get the notification that J.J. McCarthy is going to miss the entire season. And I know there are many people

I used to call you Sam Darnold sickos now that there seemingly are so many of you in positions of power like yourself, Nate Tice. I know your own podcast. I'm looking around. There's a lot of us now. Yeah. Now it's like the Sam Darnold oligarchs because there's a small group of you, but you're in positions of power with microphones and ability to influence the brains of the masses out there or at least trick the masses more like it.

I get that we're all, and I say we, that you Sam Donald Sickos, you oligarchs, are excited about the football experiment of taking Sam and throwing him into this quote good ecosystem here in Minnesota with a good play caller and the best receiver in the NFL and Justin Jefferson. But

are we not in danger, Nate, of getting to October and just being like, what are we doing all year with the Sam Darn? We're going to just start Sam Darn for 17 games. If Sam plays his way out of the job or we turn back to Nick Mullins, they pick up Brett Rippin today. We could be getting to...

Yeah, we could be getting like the clock could be starting striking midnight on like an utterly meaningless season rather quickly in Minnesota. If this doesn't get off the rails. Well, let me get through one game before I have to throw cold water on myself.

trust me i know the repercussions of being a darnold guy that's been a lot of fun i felt i had the repercussions of being a ritter guy uh yeah no i i i totally get this i don't make me pull up some 2022 sam darnold carolina panther highlights you know the little four game window where he was showing all the good stuff i i totally get this i uh even looking at the offensive ecosystem i was kind of studying the offensive line a little bit like

Are you that good? Yeah. Darryl's pretty good. O'Neal's pretty good. But interior's not, you know, Bradbury's not. Yeah. Ingram's not overwhelming. He's been better. I think with Ingram, it went from the worst player starter in the league to like, oh, you're okay now. Like you could, you actually could see the field now. Bradbury's not a needle mover or anything at center. Their run game last year was 26th in EPA per rush. And they have better running backs this year. A little more explosive. Guys that actually can open their eyes and see a hole. Um,

But I'm also curious if they throw some Sam Darnold legs. So that's like, you know, Sam Darnold run running the ball. QB runs is what I'm pretty excited about to see it. But I do want to say this. Sam Darnold, who's making less than 10 million this year, who is a stopgap mystery box for me. How many of you say mystery box? It's a half box that's of mystery that I still want to like see if he can grow into.

His first two years with the Jets, where they had to get rid of him, had to go to Zach Wilson, had to reset everything. He had QBRs, just one stat. He had a QBR of 45.9 and 45.6. Low average, 50 is average. Not bad for a first two-year guy, or first two years of a guy. Deshaun Watson in his first two years starting for the Browns, 40.4 and 42.9. Rookie Sam Darnold has been better, and one metric.

Then Deshaun Watson is getting paid, you know, who just got his cap extended again. You know, they reconfigure it, but money pushed down the road. Success rate, 43.2, 43.7. Deshaun Watson, 41.6, 38.3. So all I'm saying is rookie Sam Darnold in the Jets' Adam Gasefication was better than Deshaun Watson in that ecosystem that he has right now with Cleveland.

That's why I'm interested in this. Just let me see it. Just let me see if before the bottom gets pulled out for me and I go, oh, this is what you are. Because I do think it's going to be exciting with the offense. He's going to push the ball. It's got Justin Jefferson. But maybe it's just me, you know, with some wish fulfillment. Any defensive thoughts? Brian Flores thoughts? Anything about the D? I kind of was, I'm kind of just like they're their own thing, even if I'm not like thinking that they're going to be the lead elite unit.

Yeah, last year was sort of the perfect kind of what you want to do if you don't have great players. You just want to let's quite almost quite literally, you know, because of how much blitzing they were doing and how many different pressure packages and things like things like that. But let's just throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks or let's just throw as much as we can at quarterbacks and see if we can confuse them.

This year, now they have a few, you know, they've made some additions there. There are some better players, theoretically. You know, they bring in Grenard. Obviously, I think that's a pretty, it's kind of a one-for-one swap with Daniil Hunter, obviously. But I do think that's, you know, an interesting addition there. I wonder if they still have that approach because nothing puts, you know, bad quarterbacks in a blender than doing things like Brian Flores did with the Vikings defense last year. I just wonder if they stick with that approach.

Because it's not really the way we've seen Flores called. He's been an aggressive coordinator. Not that extreme. But not that extreme, right? So even if we dial that back a little bit, though, maybe 5%, 10% this year, we're still getting one of the more unique defenses in the league. It's one of those. They're funky. They're hard to play against. It's almost like a Bulls defense. They're not the same, but for a few years where it's like, I don't know if they're really that good, like top five, top six, but they're hard. They're just difficult to play against, but better quarterbacks and offenses would kind of game them up. I'm kind of with you on that where

I don't think it's a needle moving you know, it's a little bit of a needle moving unit, but not a true like elite. Holy crap. This team is going to carry us every single week. They can make it hard on different teams and opposing teams. But again, it's not where I'm like, yeah, they're going to actually carry this. This can be the forefront of the team. I am leaning seven and a half is hard because I'm in that seven, eight, nine win range for them. I am going to go over.

And it's not not playoffs, but more of this, the eight win team. That's where I see it at. Just because I do trust O'Connell. I do trust a little bit of the improvements they have run game wise. And I just I am a Donald truther. And I just think that he's not gonna be Kirk Cousins, but he's gonna be better in Mullins. He's gonna be better than Dobbs and all these guys they had last year. And he's gonna give you a little something to maybe bring some variance into Minnesota.

Yeah, we'll see in a month. Yeah, I can't wait to talk to you in a month. I do. I do hate to like slam. I love it. You know, your kind of pet project before the games even start as a guy who has plenty of pet projects at the wide receiver position. Oh, I hate this.

we'll get there. I hate to take the wins out of your sale immediately, but I just wanted to present the other side of it. It's a great actually interesting games. Actually, they go against because we'll know like they go against the Giants who Giants defense is another pet project of mine, which we'll talk about the interior of that offensive line against Dexter Lawrence and those guys. That's a good little parameter here. And then 49ers who are good, but you know, and they have some holes. We'll talk about Texas defense. Good front could get after him a little on the back end and the Packers defense, which

One of the biggest curiosities I have in the NFL is the Packers defense. I don't want to do any spoilers, but not overwhelming matchups to start, but good kind of, where are we at? Where are we at with the Vikings? So, yeah. All right, moving on to the next team in the NFC North. This is a great division, by the way. I'm pretty fired up about it. So we're going with the Bears at eight and a half wins. Matt, over, under with the Bears. How are you feeling about them right now? Because they're getting talked about.

by everybody right now. Yeah, I struggled with this entire division, which is why I kind of had to come right out and say like under on the Vikings because I feel really good about these next three teams and the math has to math in some way here. And that's why one of these teams has to be under. I almost kind of want to say under for the Bears too, just because I think eight is a perfect number. Like if they go eight and nine this year, I think that's a really

really good first season for Caleb Williams and, you know, should be enough to continue this regime going forward and the whole thing. I just think the expectations have gotten so high for this team that, and, you know, they're the hard knocks team. They have the number one overall pick in the draft that they did not earn. It's a great situation for Caleb Williams. I'm very excited to watch this offense this year. I'm excited to see if, you know, Matt Eberflus can,

continue the defensive momentum that they had at the end of last year. Personnel wise, it's, it's kind of a lot of the same group, but they, they worked well together at the end of last season. We just know that defense is inherently volatile. So overall I'm, I'm optimistic about the bears. I just think that eight and a half is, is truly a perfect number. So I, I, I,

I'm going to get my bit and I'll still wait until I, whether I go over or under on that because I love this defense. Like I really do. I keep harping up as much as I'm excited to see Caleb and what he's shown in the preseason has been good. Like it's like, okay, this is, this is real. You can handle an offense. You, okay, this is really good. This is what we want to see on top of all the creativity stuff. The offense,

I would say one thing that kind of, it's always going to come back to this is the interior of the offensive line. It's just, I'm a little antsy on it. I, I'm not as committed or I'm not like as saying like, uh, I'm not as gung ho about it as other people are. Um, Jenkins has looked really good, but he's always battled injuries so far in his career. The other two guys I think are average at best. And,

And we just don't know if they can hold up. So that's where I think seeing Caleb at USC with some interior pressure really just kind of getting them off script a little too many times, that's just always going to be a concern for me, especially as a rookie quarterback. He's good. I think he's going to be very good. Just, you know, blemishes early on. I just do think that week in, week out, the defense is going to be more consistent than the offense. And I think that defense is a legit top five unit, like battling for it. Love the front. I love all the spots. The line I keep coming back to is they have 12...

you know, main guys, if you include nickel and third linebacker, 11 of them are above average or better starters. Like I truly think this defense is just loaded. It also just has a, how they run all their zone stuff matters too, because zone coverage is not man to man. They're just saying, we're going to squeeze you with all these good players, smart players too, who've now been in defense. A lot of them, like you just said, returning a lot of guys been in this defense before there's a couple of changes, but overall a lot of the same players from last year.

I just, I'm going to end up going over here, which is just, I think, am I going to go over on all these? I really, I'm already trying to do math. That was my hesitation was again. I feel like the math has to math here. I know. I don't know about you, Nate. I did not have like my model up to project. We're going off a little bit of vibes here. It's notes and vibes. That's, that's it. I have like three bullet points and survives with a pick at the end. Just seeing how I feel. At least no one throws us back in your face in three months.

uh no but i no but it's the it's that defense got me fired up the punter taylor with that that it seriously matters because it's going to pin them back and that's why i i just think that caleb with any rookie quarterback they'll have some ups and downs but i think it's gonna be really exciting love the receivers the run game will be pretty sweet um but yeah so that's why i ended up with over did you end up going over or you i think i got join me i

I'll go over just because I... Or go under, and then that way we can have a little Vikings-Bears split, maybe a little. But I want to show enthusiasm for the Bears. I just really think eight wins is a perfect number for them. So I'll go... I will go... I'll go over. I'll go nine. I'll cower down. That's what I feel. I feel like it's a nine and 18. A pretty good one, but I think next year is like a real year for them. That's the year. Yeah. Yeah. Which makes sense. Packers, next up, 919.

nine and a half wins as their projected total right now, or betting total, I should say right now. All right, Matt, we've talked a lot about the receivers, but do you want to do it again? No. Let's talk about the Packers pass catchers one more time. No, I talk about something. I can't wait to talk about in a month.

Not right now. I want to talk about the Packers receivers in a month so that we can see what the rotation looks like in the first four weeks. Okay, this is where we're going. This is one of those things that I knew in March I was going to feel like, all right, I just want to get to week four and know what the answers to the test are on this one because that will just help inform what I think they're doing right or not. Because again, the group that they...

The group that they emphasized early last year was not the group that was really pushing them to the playoffs at the end of last year, where they're getting Wicks more involved when Reed was a focal point. Those are the two guys I want to see, you know, involved on the offense a ton, but you're not just going to totally phase out Romeo Dobbs. You're not just going to totally phase out Christian Watson. Those guys are too good. I mean, I think Wicks and Reed are the best receivers on the roster, but those other guys hold important roles and bring value. So,

I ended up talking about it, even though I said I didn't want to talk about it. But so it was great. In four weeks, I'm going to really want to focus on that. But the more I thought about the Packers offense, just the higher I have gotten on the unit overall, because the two tight ends bring you such different dimensions. You know, I think Tucker craft is more of a dirty work guy, but he's still a pretty dynamic pass catcher. Whereas Luke Musgrave, I think they're going to, I think there's going to be like two plays a game where he just doesn't

They get him on some kind of concept that is just infuriating for an opposing defense. And not to mention, I actually think that the –

And maybe this isn't just a totally made-up fantasy argument, but there's all this kind of speculation of, oh, the Packers signed Josh Jacobs, but they're going to have him in a rotation because Matt LaFleur always has a rotation in the backfield. You're really platooning Josh Jacobs with A.J. Dillon? Well, no, he's on IR. You're really going to platoon him with Marshawn Lloyd? I mean, he's been banged up this offseason. We'll see. So I actually kind of think...

I think they're going to come out hot and heavy in the first four weeks of the season, really leaning on Jacobs. And we'll see how that goes because, you know, he obviously is coming off of a down season last year with the Raiders. Yeah. And that's what's funny is before you could tell they let him have get his little veteran running back baby.

Like, OK, we'll give you your guy, some vet that can play offense and know or can pick up the offense quick and all that. And it was like, OK, we got him. All right. Now we got some depth at running back, you know, because this is what I heard him last year. And it's just one after another. It's just dropping like flies behind Josh Jacobs. So went from one of the things I thought they improved upon because it's just having a warm body back there as opposed to, you know, a couple of games. Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon.

as Justice Mosqueda calls him, Plodzilla, plodding out there. It's one of my favorite nicknames, Plodzilla. But I am kind of all in on this team right now because I love this offense. I love Jordan Love. I really, really like Matt LaFleur and his play calling. And because of all those receivers, like we hit on before, but Christian Watson's like their designated hitter. Like, okay, they get in the red zone, boom, they're going to design a play for him. You mentioned Luke Musgrave. He's kind of the tight end version of that. You could tell...

which guys LaFleur probably identified as his guys in the draft because those guys get a lot of play designs. But then you get Reid, who's, I think we both of us are in the same boat where it's like, this guy is so useful. It's good. It could go inside, outside. He can get designed runs. Like,

Yeah, like Reed is my type of receiver just because all the things he can do, even if I'm not saying he's gonna be a star number one pro bowler type, but just this is this is a good player. But yeah, I'm excited with all that because, too, I just did a article for Yahoo where I was doing copycat things, just things I think other teams are going to start using. Cheated a little bit watching some preseason and already seeing a couple.

But before I had the comment going like, well, we think we have multiple receiver wants because we're going to just change who's the main guy week in, week out on the game plan. At first, you know, I'm like, oh, that's coach speak. Yeah, whatever. But watching what defenses are doing for us, who we just talked about, Spagnola, Spags with the Chiefs, some other guys is they're double teaming the top receivers a lot. And this is a Belichick thing. He's been doing it for years, but they're doing double double, which is both safeties are helping out and they're bracketing two of the top receivers, which

With the Packers, when we just talked about, I like legitimately five, six of their pass catchers. That's what he's talking about. Is that, okay, you guys want to double these guys?

All right. Well, now we got Wicks and now we got Watson. We got somebody read. We got craft. We got all these guys that are B level or better players. So I think they're just they're on to something where I mean, they're on something having good players. Wow. Really on something. But I just really like it. I just I think this is the top five offense. They're spoilers. A team that I think is one of my teams. I'm a pick to have my final four as making the NFC conference title game, whether I think they win or not. We'll see.

But yeah, I just like it. They're well coached. The defense also, I like some of the improvements there. Switching defense coordinators, it can't get worse against the run. Xavier McKinney at safety, they run single high. He's really good as the post safety. They got Bullard, the rookie, to be more near the box. It's all making sense to me, especially with the pass rush, everything. So I'm over on the Packers, if you can't tell, at 9.5 wins. Yes, you are over as well? Okay. Yeah.

Yeah, I think they're a good, good team and a young team. It's not all going to be perfect with young teams. They'll make mistakes, but I'm very bullish on the Packers. All right. Next up, the favorites in the NFC North and one of the favorites in the NFC. That is the Detroit Lions, who are at 10.5 wins. Matt, where are you at with the Detroit Lions, the Honolulu Blue Detroit Lions? How are you doing with them right now? Yeah, I don't...

I don't know that we need to have a full breakdown on the offense. Like the offense is good. There's no reason you've seen it. It's probably going to be good again. I mean, we can have a conversation about exactly what Jamison Williams is, but then it might become a two hour podcast because every time I've done James Williams content this offseason, it's been absurdly long because I think he's a player that requires so much content. We have a notes version.

I mean, obviously, obviously the Lions are going to the Super Bowl because Alan Robinson's on their practice squad. So, I mean, that's great to see there. Talk about a pet project. I would love to see. Let's get Alan Robinson like a meaningless ring. That would be great. Tim Patrick and Alan Robinson on their practice squad. It's such a because like if those guys that they're

at their actual like peaks is the exact type of player that they need. But it's perfect. Patrick hasn't played football since 2021. And Alan Robinson hasn't played good football since 2021. So, um, it was actually rather, it was a de facto tight end by the Steelers last year. It was like my favorite, like career revolution. He, and it's like watching Vince Carter go from like a guy doing 360 dunks to like setting screens. Um,

That's basically what I saw. I'll Robinson to last year. It's funny. Cause I actually think that's a great role for him, but he was playing on the Steelers offense, you know, who, who cares? So we'll see if one of those guys can actually emerge. Cause it's kind of the type of receiver that they need. But I do think James Williams is going to make an impact for this team. Just as he going to be more of a consistent wide receiver to like just the, the number two guy that they need, or is he going to be more of a splash big play threat? Like either way,

I think it's a boost to the offense. So it's kind of like not a question. It's not really a huge debate at this point. And I, they're, they're just expecting big things out of him, which I think you should at this point. The bigger question for me is just on the defense. Like how, how high can this defense fly? Because talk about another coordinator who wants to be aggressive, wants to play man coverage, or wants to beat you up at the line of scrimmage with the, with the,

defensive backs, that is Aaron Glenn. And I think the longer that the season wore on, the more faith they had in the personnel, the more they started to play. They lean into that style of defense with Aaron Glenn. And, you know, you look at this group, obviously, I think the Carlton Davis trade was a pretty good move. Davis is a bit of a volatile cornerback. Cornerback's a volatile position in general, but he's been one of my favorites to watch receivers go against over the last few years just because

He can't give guys. Yeah, it's a true battle, you know, and that I think will be interesting in this style of defense. If he can hang on and give you a couple of good, maybe at least one good season here. Overall, I just think if this defense takes a few steps forward and

how is this team not the favorite in the nfc i get that the 49ers are the 49ers but they're going through a lot as i'm sure we'll talk about so look we're counting on a few things here marcus davenport staying healthy and being a factor you know dj readers coming off an injury but uh regardless i think this defense can take a few steps forward i'm clearly over on the lions here yeah i'll just start off saying i'm clearly over too i i i think the packers and alliance if i had a

stack up my favorites for the NFC or my top two along with the 49ers throwing them in there but we'll talk about them in a sec but that's really those are the teams I think are the best because

Like you originally said, it was like the offense. We know like Jared Goff is a perfect trigger man for it. He's playing a bunch of games indoors this year. I think the stat was what? 14 out of 17 games indoors this year. That's good. They are going to have a good run game because David Montgomery or Jameer Gibbs and they have a perfect balance of it. It's going to be the 50-50 split. They have rules. Gibbs really came along doing the dirty work stuff. His protection got way better from what it was in college as a pro and

And that's what this team does. They trust their development, which is easier said than done. It takes a lot of confidence in what you're doing. Guys, you see where that works out is Lee McNeil, some other defenders, but you just talk about Jameson Williams. What I thought was cool with Williams, I should say cool, but what I've noticed throughout was that they didn't just put him in right away when he came from when he had injury, then suspension.

Then go and go, just run, go balls, just run post, just run. They're like, no, we're gonna make you run a dig. We're gonna make you block. We're gonna make you do receiver stuff. Cause we know you could run. Like we don't have to like prove that.

At first, you're kind of like, well, just use him what he's good at. But they're trying to make him better. They're trying to work him into a real receiver where he's not just a typecast as one guy. So I'm optimistic about him. I really am about Jameson Williams stepping in because I just think they've asked him and they're going to reap the benefits of that. I'm glad he brought about Aaron Glenn because –

That's kind of what I came to with the Lions defense last year was they're not good, but at least they try. They always try stuff. He throws stuff against the wall like, does this blitz work? No. Okay. All right. Next time we'll get them. Does this blitz work? Oh, it worked. All right. Cool. Cool. We'll run it again. Like I've seen so many bad defense coordinators just we're going to run cover for because that's what we run every play and they just get snapped in the face. The Packers are a great example.

So, yeah, I think this is a dark horse top 10 type defense just because those improvements. I agree. Improvements on the back end. The front seven is kind of badass, kind of kick-ass front seven. They were fourth best last year against the run in terms of EPA. And they improved with DJ Reader.

And so that's just it's a lot of the stuff, the little in-between stuff that they're adding that makes a lot of sense. You already touched on the DBs, but he's going to run a ton of man coverage. They got a bunch of feisty corners that love living in man coverage. My comparison for Ennis Raikstra in the draft was a pint-sized version of Carlton Davis.

And then the same team trades for Carlton Davis and drafts on a strike. It was like, okay, yeah, that makes a lot of sense. So, um, and Terry and Arnold said the thing about, I, my mother was, uh, was a receiver. I jam her into the dirt or whatever. So it's,

So I think mindset really does matter for a defense that wants to play this way. Last question for you about this defense. How good do you think of a player can Aiden Hutchinson become? I think that's kind of, if this is going to be a dark horse top 10 defense, I do think that even with all the praise that we're singing for Glenn and some of these guys in the secondary, I do think they will need Hutchinson to

maybe take another jump. And, you know, when we were doing the big show that you guys were part of, the season preview show that I didn't get to be a part of, I really considered Aiden Hutchinson as a Defensive Player of the Year candidate just because I think this...

Team is going to be good. I think he's going to have production. He's got name recognition. He's got name recognition. They're showing his freaking parents during broadcast games and stuff like that. So voters will know who he is. So that all combined, he is a very, very, very good player. I just wonder if he can take yet another step into kind of the elite edge groups in the NFL, which I don't think he's quite a part of yet. But he's obviously, like I said, very, very good.

I struggle with him because I consider him a top 10 pass rusher, top 12, but he's not good against the run. And that matters a lot to me if I'm going to put you as an elite guy. Yeah, there's a difference between elite pass rusher and elite edge because doing that, and I don't think he's ever going to be really that good at it just because that's where the arm length comes in. It's not so much when you get a pass blocked, it's the run blocking when these long tackles, Tristan Wirth's,

35 inch arms just gets him and moves him out of the way because he's got good size. He's tall. He's decent weight and everything, but that's where it comes up. So I think he's always going to be a threat. He's going to be a double digit sack guy. I think the rest of his career, he will get pressures. He will get cleanup sacks. That's why I'm optimistic about all these other guys with him because he doesn't have to do the dirty work. They can do the dirty work. He could be the sack getter, the star getter. So yeah, so like my answer to it is like, I think he is a very good edge and

I just think that because he doesn't play the run well, I can never consider him that kind of upper echelon guy. It's almost like Hendrickson a little bit. I think Hutchinson will end up being better than Trey Hendrickson in his career. But it's kind of like that where it's like, I respect Hendrickson. I know. But you can just run right at him. Any play, just run right at him. And he's kind of a negative. So that's kind of where I end up with him. But having said all that.

over lines. Yeah, I'm excited to watch them this year. All that stuff. So, we've got to talk about Hutch. I know, the guy that we've got Pro Bowl guy, all these accolades and he's like the afterthought, but let's talk about their defense a little bit. I also want to see Jack Campbell. Jack Campbell's going to improve this year. I'm calling that shot. He's going to be a good player this year. I really like him. All right. That's the NFC North. We're going to take a quick break with a couple more divisions just in a sec.

Since 2013, Bombas has donated over 100 million socks, underwear, and t-shirts to those facing homelessness. If we counted those on air, this ad would last over 1,157 days. But if we counted the time it takes to make a donation possible, it would take just a few clicks. Because every time you make a purchase, Bombas donates an item to someone who needs it. Go to bombas.com slash wondery and use code wondery for 20% off your first purchase. That's bombas.com slash wondery. Code wondery.

Yeah.

Payoff up to $650 via virtual prepaid MasterCard in 15 days. Free phone up to $830 via 24-month in-bill credits plus tax. Qualifying port and trade-in service on Go5G Next and credit required. Contact us before canceling entire account to continue bill credits or credit stop and balance and required finance agreement is due. Okay, we are back as I move my microphone around. All right, we are going to go on to the NFC West, another game.

Very juicy division. We're going to start with the Cardinals. The Cardinals, who are at 7.5 wins. That is a far cry from a few months ago when they were at 5.5. I got to shut up about them. Who said this? You? Yeah, I was going to say, who said it? I got to shut up about the Cardinals, man. But no, the Cardinals at 7.5 wins. Where are you at with the Cardinals right now, Matt? I mean, geez, bro. 7.5 is just like, that's...

That's asking a lot. If they win seven games this year, that's awesome. And I...

I know you and I share a real affinity for the offense and, you know, what they did last year from a structure standpoint, the players now. I mean, Marvin Harrison just carved from stone to be the exact guy that they were missing last year. I think Michael Wilson is a really nice complimentary receiver, had a much better rookie year than people realize, and he can play multiple different roles, you know, for them. I've talked about that a lot where...

At the beginning of the season, he was more of a big slot flanker type. And then when Hollywood Brown goes down, they just throw him out at the X receiver position for the final three games. And Kyler Murray has his best stretch in those final three games and trusted Michael Wilson to go win some jump balls down the field. I think that the fact that they're able to move those two receivers around the formation because Michael Wilson is showing you that he can play X is important.

Trey McBride is awesome. I always come back to this anecdote. I've said this on the fantasy podcast, like a thousand times, including earlier today. So it's fresh in the brain. I'll never, I cannot get it out of my head that Greg Olson at one point, I think it was during the Texans Cardinals game at the end of last year. He talked about talking to both Kyler Murray and Jonathan Gannon, how both of those guys were like, Hey, Trey McBride, we think you are so good. You should improv on your routes. Like Travis Kelsey, forget, forget what the play call is. And the design is coach say that I,

Right, right. Now, it is a defensive coach, but you know, I wonder if Pets things are like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a second. Don't get your doubts. Yeah, nobody invited me to this meeting, but yeah, I never forget that because that's just

how good they think Trey McBride is. And he produced like that type of player to end last year. So I'm excited about the offense. The run game, obviously it was super productive last year and just sprinkling in Trey Benson should be nice. And, you know, maybe he gets more and more work as the year goes on. I just can't get past the other side of the ball.

and just where they're at from a personnel standpoint, we'll see how any of this works, but that's why I will go under here just because I think six or seven wins is a really nice season. I can't quite get to, you know, eight, nine or something like that. This is the most optimistic under I'm going to give like, cause I think this is a seven and 10 team, a very frisky one. They're playing an FC West, by the way, everyone remember that's really hard. Six games against a very good division.

you kind of nailed it all in the head. I'm very excited about this offense. This is a sneaky top 10 offense just because the run game is going to be legit good. It's well designed. They have multiple backs they can use outside. They have Connor, who's a great hammerhead for it, but you already just mentioned Trey Benson. They also have this other guy who

Amari, Amari or Amari Demercado? Demercado. Yeah. Demercado. Yeah. And they keep using him as like a scat back. Like they love him. They were using him over Benson and the practices I saw, which I thought was very interesting. Well, fancy. If you want to keep that in your back pocket a little bit.

Yeah, but also the tight ends, though. I love them. I really like what they're going to do with them. Petzing loves using multiple tight ends, two and three tight end looks. I think that's going to be a weapon for them. They're the only team I've seen in recent memory that ran 13 personnel in seven on seven in practice.

which is, that's something new I've ever really seen before. But I love that you brought up Wilson. Wilson makes so much sense in this offense. That's going to base out of 12. Like I really, they're going to run a lot of too tight end stuff because McBride's a valid receiver, a much better blocker than people realize that

but Wilson is, he does the dirty work. He can be a big target against zone. He can do some, I don't know what his man stats are, but to me, it's like, at least in reception perception, I thought he was good against man and press. And I test that's what it looks like. Cause he's so strong and such a big target. So, and what they, how they're using them is he's the perfect Z for Marvin Harrison, juniors X. And they have size. Like that's real. They have a lot of size when they trot out 12 personnel. That's a, that's a big unit with,

Kyler Murray, that quarterback. Greg George hanging out there somewhere, too. Exactly. But it's such a far cry from, remember those Cliff Kingsbury Cardinals receiver rooms? They were like 5'9", 5'8", 5'7", 5'8". Now they've got size. These guys block. They...

it's an offense that it speaks to me. If you have anyone's listened to the show for the last two months, you could tell that, but it really does because just the run game is going to be good. It's going to be efficient. It's going to be well-designed. They have new innovative stuff they're using with motions and everything. They have the personnel. Paris Johnson, Jr. Is a really good player. They also have other guys on the offensive line. I like the coach, uh,

The defense, though, is more fun than good. It's a defense that's going to be a fun 22nd overall defense that will make it be fun, be interesting, but not overall good. So that's what I keep coming back to. They're a year away there. They know that, I think. Watch the back end of this defense now. Watch Buda Baker. Watch Jalen Thompson. Watch Garrett Wilson.

All the stuff they're doing with those guys is really, really cool. So if you are watching the Cardinals, watch the offense, watch the defensive back end, watch Roy Lopez up front as well. But I'm on the under. When this was five and a half or six and a half, I was an easy over. Seven and a half is a little rich for me. So I'm going to I think there are seven or eight win team. So I'm going to go with the under there. But do like them now.

On to the other bird team of the NFC West. We have the Seattle Seahawks at seven and a half wins. The same as the Cardinals. One team won nine games last year. One won four. Not a ton, but they both are at seven and a half right now. We split the difference. Matt, your feelings on the Seahawks this year? Yeah, I've...

I'm pretty optimistic about the Seahawks. The offense, obviously great personnel. I think Gino Smith is, I'm probably not the biggest Gino truther in the world. You know, there are people like Greg Rosenthal out there that have been, that deserve that crown. But I do like Gino. I think he's good. I think he's a really good quarterback. I don't think, you know,

When there was a discussion when they traded for Sam Hallick, oh, is Geno Smith's job in trouble? Give me a freaking break. I mean, the thing that destroyed Geno Smith's season last year is they couldn't pass protect. Yeah.

You think you're going to throw Sam Howell out there and get better results? I do not think so. No, he mitigates sacks. That's what Sam Howell does, college and pro. That's all he does. He never takes sacks. Biggest sack eater this side of Chustin Fields. So I think that Geno's in a good position here if they can protect him. And that is obviously the big question because the receivers are good. I think Ryan Grubb, from a route concept standpoint, I can map all three of these receivers onto what they did with

Roma Dunzey to DK Metcalf, Jalen Polk to Jackson's Pindadigua. I think Tyler Lockett, I'm the biggest Tyler Lockett guy probably on earth. I do get to hold that title. I've had my shares on Tyler Lockett Island when they were here to here to all the way back up. Now I do think we're declining a little bit there, but he can still give you some vertical slot stuff. He can still beat man coverage at a decent rate. He's not the same player, but if he's your third receiver, that's a really good third receiver. Right, right.

It doesn't have to be, not everyone has to catch a thousand yards and be good, but you can still be like an 800 yard receiver and be a really good player for your offense. It comes back to the defense for me, Nate. And one thing I've generally thought with Mike McDonald is just, we, we watched in Baltimore, like that unit was great last year, but we know it took a little bit of time for that to seep in.

And I think there are talented players on this roster. You know, Leonard Williams, I think is going to play a pretty cool role for them. You know, Byron Murphy, they take in the draft. That's exciting. Devin Witherspoon. Everyone's excited about to see how Mike McDonald's going to deploy him. He's not the same pterodactyl that Kyle Hamilton is, but he certainly can be a movable chess piece. I had thought to myself, like, yeah, this, this defense might get off to a slow start, but then I look at the schedule. They have the Broncos in week one.

They have the Patriots in week two. They do have the Dolphins and Lions in week three and week four, but we just watched Mike McDonald put the Dolphins in a blender last year. And the Lions.

And the Lions. So, I mean, I don't know that. And then they get the Giants in week five. You know, Daniel Jones. I mean, are we going to be on Drew Lockwatch by then? So even while this defense might not be at its full form to start the year, the matchups are soft or at least are guys that McDonald's familiar with beating up on into and Jared Goff in week three and week four.

No, that's a great call. And they're my, I wouldn't say off-season team. They've become my summer team where I'm just kind of, I keep looking at the roster. I watch the preseason. I look at the roster again.

Look at the preseason again. And I'm like, I like this team. I think I like the Seahawks this year. And at seven and a half, that's like an easy over for me. Really. I think this team can make the playoffs. I'm way high on them. Offensive line stuff is that's it. Really? The season comes. That's it. Makes or breaks this team.

I just think the defense, even what you said, might be a slow start. That's a great reminder, though. Remember two years ago when the Dolphins just shredded the Ravens defense? It was an awesome game, just the shootout back and forth between two and Lamar. But then they had to reconfigure some of the depth. They put Hamilton, Slott, a bunch of—sometimes you need to get knocked in the face to change some things, and that was good. Sometimes that can be a catalyst for things.

But I just think that no matter what, he's an improvement over what the Seahawks had before at defensive play color. I just thought those guys were below average. They lacked ideas. They're running the same zone coverages. They're hiding Bobby Wagner a lot. They're hiding Jamal Adams a little bit. So that was also not great for a great situation because those are guys that are the star players, quote unquote, and we can't bench them.

I think that's going to help. I wish they kept Jordan Brooks. They don't have Roquan Smith, which that's a big difference when you're trying to run a defense that does a lot. You don't have Roquan Smith. But I do think just because I think he's one of the better defensive minds. I do like the pieces they have up front. You already mentioned a couple of them. They're going to be really hard to run against because of how much size they have. Murphy's a great little...

different type of player that they have compared to the other guys. I have a beefier guys are kind of tweeners. I like the back end. The offense makes sense to me because Geno,

What, you know, it's going to be asked what do what Michael Penix did. And it's like, ah, that kind of fits. Stay out of the pocket and let it rock. Like let that, let those things rip down the field. And even looking in the preseason, seeing some of the grub stuff, I'm really bullish on grub. All the tight end motion stuff he was using, the switch release stuff. He loves using switch releases and motioning to those. It's a lot of stuff attacking the seams and digs.

Who's really good at throwing those? Geno. Sam Howell is not. But it was kind of cool to see by the time the preseason was over, Howell let a couple of those rip, which I've never seen him do. Because they're like, those are open. You got to throw them. So that's, yeah, I'm just very bullish on this team. I like, I think that was some offensive line improvement. You know, they drafted my guy Christian Haynes from UConn. Looks like he's going to be starting for them. That's some improvement. We'll see what happens with Abe Lucas at tackle.

I just think the offense interior improved. Yeah, I know that stinks. But Charles Cross, I think he's going to be in for a big year where he got kind of last year had a rough one with all the injuries and stuff. So I think some offensive line luck, not even improvement, just luck will help this team out. I like the backs too. Even if Walker is more boom bust, he's still fast.

explosive i like charbonnet i like the tight ends it's a it's just a lot that i like even and so that's what just got me to maybe kind of an easy over did you say you're over on them as well yeah i'm over as well okay seahawks we're a seahawk spot this year that's how that's how we're i know great never this is never this has never bitten me in the ass before never blown up my content last year god oh my god they're

there's weeks that I was like, no, they'll be fine. This offense is fine. It's like, what's happening on third down? It's like, I don't know. I don't, I, the whole line, I can't just keep saying the whole line over there. If you want to see what the Seahawks were last year, watch the end of the Bengals game. Just watch the fourth quarter against the Bengals. You can go on YouTube. I'm sure it's on there, like some highlights and just watch what happened to Gino in the red zone. Where do you like just get blasted in the face? Couldn't even throw off. But all right, next up on, in the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams.

Eight and a half wins. They've had an eventful month. It really feels like they always are having an eventful month. So the Rams, Matt, how are you feeling about the Los Angeles Rams? I feel worse now here at the end of August than I did at the beginning of August. Like when we did our top 10 offenses pod, I...

Where do we have them?

This has to be while it's a very exciting unit. And I think dorks like you and I are super just, we can't stop talking about the identity transformation that they went through last year as a, you know, this duo and man gap run scheme from what they were and like how cool that is. And we face coaching job last year with all of these young players. It's fun to talk about that stuff. The thing I can't get out of the back of my mind is this has to be one of the most fragile units in the entire NFL, like from an offensive perspective. And it's not like they had a clean summer. Right.

A bunch of starting offensive linemen, Jonah Jackson, Rob Havenstein, have missed time. Alaric Jackson was banged up and now is going to be suspended for the first two games. Pukunukuwa, their phenom rookie receiver, is currently dealing with an injury. Cooper Cupp, injury problems the last couple years. Kyron Williams is a guy who's missed some time. And Matthew Stafford is a health risk. And their nominal starting tight end, I know that they signed Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen has shown some things, but Tyler Higby also dealing with an injury.

And this is the side of the ball that's supposed to be good, right? This is the side of the ball that is supposed to carry the day. I heard Greg Rosenthal make the point that when Aaron Donald retired, he literally said, like, Ernest Jones, this is your defense now. And Ernest Jones just got traded for nothing a few days ago. A captain on a rookie contract. Right. So I don't know what to think about the defense and the offense we should be excited about. But

If it all goes right, it's going to be a top five offense. I get that. But it's already not going right, and it's August. Nate, it's not as if we have... Thankfully, we don't have recent evidence of a Rams offensive line tanking an entire season for this team. You mean when the run game couldn't get going, and they still did it? It's like, that's the formula. McKay's like, why isn't this working? This used to be five, six yards a pop with Curley back there. Throwing 14 passes...

Five yards down the field to Cooper Cup is not working? What's going on? What is going on here? Yeah, this went from like, I've been beating their drum for months now. It's just like, oh man, this offense could be sick. They had so much layers every year. They're tweaking everything. Everything you just laid out went from, I was so giddy about everything to now I'm like,

this is going to be the whole season. We're having played a single game. I, even a little things they did before the injury started hitting was Blake Corum. I liked that addition with Kyron Williams. So it's like, okay, give you a little insurance there. Okay. That makes sense. They, they beefed up the tight end position a little bit. I think they're high on Davis Allen, Colby Parkinson. They signed. I was like, Oh, okay. You're going to do some tight end stuff. Some two tight end stuff. All right. I like that. I see that.

Higby gets hurt. Okay, all right. Now, I don't like it as much. All right, Kyron Williams at 192 pounds. All right, yeah. Offensive line going down one by one. Okay. They signed Jonah Jackson. I'm like, hell yeah, they signed Jonah Jackson. But in the back of my head, I'm like, he's always hurt. And he's hurt. And he's hurt again. So this was the discussion I had with the Jets earlier this week with Charles. I'm sure we'll get clipped just for this 30 seconds I talk about the Jets because that's how it works. But it's that...

It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. Oh, you mentioned jets flag it. But they, they, you're too, Nate, you're too early into your full-time role here to be, to be having grievances with what gets clipped. I just, I complain a lot. It's just more, mostly private. But the, what's more realistic? What are you going to bet? If you're a betting man, where are you going to bet on the thing that happens every single year, which is all these guys get hurt or the one-off that they don't like that.

I'm betting more that these guys all miss time in some way, shape or form. Stafford's playing style leads to him getting hurt. He's willing to hang. That's not him scrambling around. It's him hanging in the pocket to the last second to make throws. Those hits add up, especially if the line is going to be leaky. And then you mentioned that's just the offense. I'm still excited about the offense. I respect the hell out of Sean McVay. They're going to be OK, even with injuries. But it's not this like, oh, easy top five unit. And now defense. Troy Reeder, really?

They're giving Troy Reeder the green dot. I learned that right before we started recording. I've seen this story. I've seen this. They don't have Aaron Donald over there. That Aaron Donald did a lot of lifting. And I know it's just one guy, but it's a true. I use the term needle mover. He broke the whole scale. Well, how much needle moving he was doing. I get that they have some rookies, some young guys they're excited about, but that's a lot to put on young guys. The back end.

But Tredavious White's a nice player. Always been hurt recently. Again, what are you betting on? I like Cameron Curl a little bit, but it's not like he's like, oh yeah, moving the needle for me. Cameron Kitchens, they draft in the third round. He runs like a 4-8. He's very instinctual and everything, but it's a guy that's a specific role has to be right for him.

So it's just a lot of like, man, everything I get excited about, there's a question behind it. I'm going to end up on the under for them, under eight and a half wins, just because this is just not a great start. If you told me a month ago, I'd be like, yeah, right, to the moon with this team. A lot of cold water has been dumped on my takes with this team, and I'm just going to end up on the under, even if I'm excited to watch them. I'm with you. I mean, if I really wanted to make sure this segment...

going to get clipped. I would have started off with instead of saying it right now, I would have started off with could the Rams finish last in their division and then go into that monologue of injuries. Instead, I'm going to give myself grace here because video editing doesn't work. There's no way they could take that and then put it at the top and then tweet it out. That wouldn't work. It's all live. Yeah, for sure. Nothing ever gets edited because we're perfect. We never screw up either, Nate. We never fumble words or anything like that. Oh, me? Never.

There's a chance. No, I do think there's a real chance. And look, you could do this with any team. Well, yeah, if all the good players get hurt, they could finish last in the division. The problem is, like you said...

All of these guys have an injury history. Even Puka, like, why did this record-breaking rookie receiver fall to day three? He was hurt all the time in college. He had medical. I mean, knock on wood, I don't want any of these dudes to get hurt. I want to see the peak version of this team, but I'm also on the under here as well. Yeah, man. I know. Two teams were actually excited about. The Cardinals and the Rams were like, eh, under. It's just kind of, I had to be realistic about both of them.

All right, next team, and one of the favorites in the NFC and the favorites in NFC West, that is the San Francisco 49ers defending NFC champions who are at 11.5 wins right now on BetMGM. A lot's been happening in San Francisco or Santa Clara. Matt, how does that make you feel about the 49ers and their projected 11.5 wins?

I really don't know what to say about the 49ers. That hasn't already been said. Yeah, this team will be worse if they don't have Trent Williams and they don't have Brandon Ayuk in some shape or form. Plus, like we're getting to the point now where Kyle Shanahan saying we're prepping for a week one game. These guys are not here. I'm prepping as if they will not be here. And look, September doesn't matter for this team as much as.

and hopefully February matter for this team. But shoot, still, you don't want to come out the gate without one of your top two receivers. I think your best...

receiver, your best pass catcher, and you're all not even just all pro, like all world left tackle. They weaponize Trent Williams more than any team weaponizes an offensive tackle. And I'd love for you to kind of expand on that because just how important he is. But yeah, no, I don't feel great about that. I don't I think I'm still going to take probably over on 11 and a half with this team. But I sure wish we were talking about, man, all the cool stuff they're doing in the offseason instead of

It's day 30 of checking in on Twitter for Brandon Iuke rumors. I'd love it to be something else, but that's what the situation has been. It's the same rumors. There are handshakes. We're looking at film of handshakes and everything. Is everything okay out there? No. Everything okay in the Bay Area? All these teams I want to get excited about. This is my number one offense. It was all of ours. It was chalk. All of us. Because we...

It always comes down to Kyle Shanahan. As long as he's there, this offense is going to be good in some way, shape, or form. But is it going to be world-altering, number one EPA by 100 points type of offense? Or is it just going to be another good top 10 offense? That's

A big difference because this defense, I do think is going to drop off a little bit. I think they have some of the stars of stars. They have Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Travarius Ward, Demona, Demona door Lenore. They have the grave digger. They have a hard grave in the middle. Those are very good players.

But now there's a bit more question marks on that defense than it was. This isn't a defense that I think is going to smother opponents like they were early last year and previous years. They fell off a little last year, especially on passing downs. So there's more questions here. They got Devondre Campbell at linebacker instead of Dre Greenlaw. Campbell's fine, but it's not Dre Greenlaw. And it's not, you know, there's a reason Campbell's on the street. Dre Greenlaw's like, no, this is our long-term starter.

Okay, that's just another like a little when you're dipping just a little 5-10% in a bunch of different spots that that matters a lot. I think they're going to struggle defending the run. That's that's one thing I really concerned about with this team is

Even with all the offensive holdouts, all the offense stuff, the offense alliance, not good, but they always just make it better because of design and how the offensive system is. So that's why it's like, yeah, I don't think it's going to be, if these guys are not there, not going to be the number one, but I still think it's going to be a top eight offense, just how it goes. It's just that defense just has me concerned. Like it really does. It's...

It's not one that I think is a true, true top end unit, but I think will be a more of a good unit. So if you're saying a good, very good offense, a good above average, good defense, that's different than an elite offense with a very good defense. You know, it's just that little down, take a little bit. They're cutting picks left and right. Layout. Yeah, of course. They are to the tight end who was an overdraft in the moment. Yeah. Just guys left and right. Just so.

I, and the team always just keeps doing this to me. And then, and the turnoff, they'll win 10, 11, 12 games to make a round of play. So I think I'm going over. Don't take the under. We have to go over, but it's just worth pointing these things out. Yes, I'm going over. I said all this and there's still one of my, you know, the teams as I would consider the favorite in the NFC because I trust,

the guys they have and what they've done before. Yeah. I don't know. Kind of weird right now in 49er land. And then in two months, they'll be like, oh, they're number one on offense again. Purdy just threw five touchdowns. And then we're like, oh yeah, of course. That's how it goes. They've given up one sack in six weeks, like just all this stuff. But that was the NFC West. We are moving coast to coast over Matt's head into the NFC East. Yes, there it goes. And it landed there to the East Coast time zone.

Well, one of the teams in Central. We're going to start with the Commanders at six and a half wins. The Washington Commanders, Matt, how are you feeling about that over-under total? I mean, I'm going under on this. Like, and I...

We kind of had a... It should be crazy here, but keep going. Six and a half is a lot for this team. We had a long discussion about the commanders a little bit during our pre-pro meeting, and we can get into some of that here, but let me just put the offense aside for a second, because that's a whole can of worms to do on that. There's a lot. Yeah, yeah. Dan Quinn's...

I thought he did a really great job in Dallas as a defensive coordinator, although it kind of petered out at the end. He's one of those guys, similar to the McVay thing, where the first few weeks and months of his reign in Dallas is the D.C. You're like, oh, he's not just doing the same old stuff. He's really mixing it up. And that was exciting to see. They play a lot of man coverage. They rush the hell out of the quarterback. And there are some guys on this defensive depth chart like

I'm interested to see what they do with Jeremy Chin. I'm interested to see what they do with Frankie Lu, but weirdly enough, two guys played for the Carolina Panthers. Um, Sander still the, the Nickelback, uh, I think he's a really interesting player, but then you look at some of the other spots here and like we're starting Bobby Wagner in the year 2024, just no doubt about it. Um,

Cleland Farrell is one of our best edge players. We're doing the... Oh, hey. Well, Dan Quinn's here, so we got to have the token Dante Fowler spot. He's the one that got away from him because they drafted Dick Beasley that year and Fowler went three. And I think ever since then, he's like, that's my guy. I got to have Fowler. And he's had some good play out of Fowler before. So yeah, it's fine. But there's just spots like that on the defense that...

I don't think this is going to be an above average unit this year. And like I said, the offense is, I'll throw the offense to you because that's its whole other can of worms here. Oh, man. The defense is really the biggest concern for me because, yeah, everything you just laid out, the Wagner stuff, the back end, they have good D tackles. But other than that, it's like,

Okay, and I just watched their backups play, and they're making mistakes left and right. I'm like, oh boy, this could be interesting. Offensively, this is where all the kind of concerns lie. As we look at other teams with rookie quarterbacks, say one in New England, there's been much made about the offensive line in New England. Apparently, everybody knows that every starter in New England, everyone says their offensive line, no one can name a single name for any of those guys, by the way, which I just keep thinking, they suck. All right, who sucks?

All right. There you are. Okay. Then I go to Washington's line and we feel better. Why? Why? Like Andrews is better than Biotis to me. Biotis is a nice, fine starting center. Fine. Everybody at Andrew Wiley. Fine. Everybody else is kind of a net negative average at best with, and usually, okay. Cosme is like, okay, he's okay. It's a bunch of okay to blow average, but no, like,

Even with the 49ers line, that's more same thing. They still have Trent Williams generally, who's all world. They have one guy that you can trust on Giants offensive line. At least you have Andrew Thomas out there at left side. Other poor offensive lines where it's like, eh. I look at this. I look that they have a quarterback that, you know, at a historic rate was taking sacks in college. Yes, he got a little better at it by the end, but still was taking a lot of sacks with pressure to sacks. I think, yes, this... I'm worried about Cliff Kingsbury, the offensive coordinator, in the sense that he's not...

When he was calling plays in Arizona, he was very poor at adjusting. If something wasn't work, NFL is all about adjustments. This wasn't working for us. We thought it would. Now it doesn't throw it out. This wasn't working or we didn't think it would work. Now it is because they're doing this. Now we got to run it more. He just kind of goes, oh, that's not working. Well, let me try it again.

That's not where he wastes a lot of ball place. And he's actually talked about this, how in college that he goes, we have more plays that we can waste to kind of get it out there and see what they're doing. You only got 55, 62 plays in the NFL. I'm terrified that he doesn't know how to mitigate that line, that it's going to be a lot of quick game. There's going to be some movement stuff. I think the run game is actually going to be decent, but the passing game is not good.

you know, creative enough, not expansive enough to, I think will compensate for that. Where I think is against certain teams say week one against Todd Bowles and the Bucks. It could be a little ugly. It could be a lot of blitzing. It could be a not great answers against blitzes because that's just what this offense is. But the fact that they might show that on tape is really scary. So in that also I like Terry McCorn. I, but again, he's not a tier one guy to me. I think we've, we've talked about this several times.

How much Diane Brown stock do you own? I still got a couple of shares, but he's barely going to see the field so far in his career. He's your outside receiver. They have Zaccheaus. Zaccheaus for me is like a meme, but he's like a receiver for like, he's a good receiver for me.

He might be there too. They were talking him up before they traded Jahan Dotson. And look, I know that I like Jahan Dotson. I liked him a lot as a prospect. I thought he had a good rookie year. He took a little bit of a step back last season, but I think was better on film than the stats show, which...

it's not saying much because the per route per was off. Right. It was like 1.1 or something like that. It was, it was like outrageously bad, but I still think he, I think he'll be a funk. I think he'd be like a functional NFL player and like a good, like a good receiver. You're just not in a position to be like trading that guy inside the division. I don't care what you've seen in practice or maybe unless he's like a complete nightmare behind the scenes. I thought that trade was crazy. And again, I understand I'm like a big fan of the player and, you know, more than he's shown so far, but still like, yeah, you're,

McLaurin, I think, was at times like a top 10 receiver in the league and knocking on that door of maybe being a tier one player. But I think he took a step back last season, and that is concerning. Look, I love Terry McLaurin. I hope he has that dynamic season that he should at some point, but he is a sneaky older player. And the rest of this depth chart is like they took Luke McCaffrey with the third round pick. I thought that was crazy high for

you know, somebody, I was tweeting back for the, somebody today, I could Luke McCaffrey be the next, like Julian Edelman, like a converted to wide receiver. And, you know, I'm like, well, number one, that'd be a hell of an outcome. Why did they compare those two? I mean, to be generous, you know, position, convert developmental guy, or Antoine Randall. Yeah.

I don't know. Good question. Can't quite put my finger on it. But I mean, with McCaffrey, like, yeah, maybe he was. But Julian Edelman was like a seventh round pick, right? McCaffrey was end of the third round and he might not even be one of their top three guys to start the season and you needed immediate impact. And I just am so worried about this.

The just on paper roster for Jaden Daniels. And then you bring up the Kingsbury thing. This is from Josh Norris. Jaden Daniels is that is time to throw on 15 preseason dropbacks. One point nine one seconds quick as in the NFL last year. Two point three six seconds. Daniels air yards per attempt. Five point five shortest in the NFL last season. Five point seven.

is that it's preseason i get it but if we get something like that in arizona that's the horizontal raid it's the horizontal raid we're back again here in washington so i yeah six and a half i'm clearly under six and i'm clear under i'm too it what disappointed me the most i know it's preseason i know washington fans i've seen you guys kind of go i'm like well it's preseason they're not showing anything this is the exact same offense cliff kingsbury ran arizona same concepts it's all three by one it's i

If you saw those stop routes and hitch routes to Terry and Diami Brown when Jay Nails was in there, it's because that's how this offense works. It's a three-man concept on one side and an iso ball on the other side. It's impossible. It really is. I'm firm saying this. Impossible to win consistently unless you have an all-time receiver on the outside to win iso ball all the time. DeAndre Hopkins worked a decent amount. Very good receiver. Potentially Hall of Famer. But then they have... If I have Randy Moss, yeah. Terry...

Good. I'm not going to say he's going to win 90% of the time. He can win probably 60% of the time, 70%. Okay. All right. Diami Brown, probably more 50-50 at best. And they're also doing that. It's not just Terry going to be doing it because they're doing the left-right thing where Terry is the receiver 100% of the time on the left side. Diami is 100% of the time on the right side.

That, to me, is just, again, it's Cliff not learning. This is what happened at the end in Arizona. He became so predictable that defenses were able to just tee off on everything. So much quick game, ice ball on the outside. I do think Daniels is going to run it well. It's just that that type of offense, that type of flow, it's not my favorite. Too much horizontal stuff, like you mentioned, too. And they're also running a ton of 10 personnel, meaning four wide receivers, and they're getting rid of receivers. And they have dirty work guys where I'm like, yeah, the run games could be cool.

But I don't know if you can build a receiver room out of Zaccheaus and Diami Brown and all these guys. And they traded for Zach Brown. Yeah. And so Zach Brown.

Noah Brown. We're halfway through. Forgive me for messing up Brown first names. All right. But I think we are both on the under six and a half wins for the commanders. I just, it just feels a little empty still. Next up, we have the Giants also at six and a half wins. We haven't really talked much New York Giants, probably because offensively, there's not much to talk about, but what we got here, what we got with the Giants, Matt, how are you feeling about them?

Yeah, I think this defensive line is good enough to be the identity of this team, you know, and to really make them a potential surprise unit. You know, throwing Brian Burns on there is just so cool. You're singing to me right now, Matt. Just keep going. I just think I think Brian Burns like next to Dexter Lawrence is is pretty freaking sweet, man. Dexter Lawrence is he's a treat to watch. Like when you're when I'm again,

Not watching receivers. I'm just watching like film. I think he's one of the most enjoyable defensive players, like a unique guy that's built like a nose but can truly disrupt the pocket. I mean, he's going to ruin your Sam Darnold stocks before they even can invest.

Like in week one. It's like watching a seven. I don't want to say Wemby, but it's like watching a seven foot two guy shoot threes. Like where you're just like, what the hell? Like, and that's Dexter Lawrence. It's like, you're a 340 pound nose tackle. What pass rush move did you just use? What was that? Like, you're just not expecting that type play style of that type of body build, but continue with your giants defensive love. Yeah.

And I think that, again, him and Burns working together is really cool because like came on. Thibodeau is a good player. I think he's gotten a little overhyped because big personality plays in New York, but he's a good he's a good player. So getting all these guys working in tandem, I really do think can be it can be just a identity bringer to not just the defense, but really the entire team. But.

They're going to need to be because I'm not really that optimistic about much else. I want to start off positive here because, yeah, I mean, the rest of the defense, I think we'll see. I kind of like Shane Bone as an underrated defensive coordinator. I thought that was an interesting hire. And he's going to flip things almost completely from what Wink Martindale is doing. So that'll be interesting as we're transitioning there. Like, overall, I do think the defense can be a pretty solid unit. I mean...

I know Malik neighbors is Twitter's favorite receiver at this point, but I,

God almighty, man, this is not a good offensive depth chart. And, you know, we know what Daniel Jones is. I just think they got away with so much smoke and mirrors in that 2022 season. Not a lot of like true, real dropback stuff. A lot of schemey things from a receiver perspective. And look, you can put Malik Neighbors into... What I said about Neighbors when he was drafted by the Giants is that he was uniquely schemey.

skilled among the top three guys to not thrive in this landing spot, but survive this landing spot. I still think that I still think that is true, but then if we're, if we're doing all this stuff with Malik neighbors to get him free, to get Daniel Jones layups, uh,

We're just doing like Daniels, Darius Slayton again. And Jalen Hyatt is outside receivers. Like Wanda Robinson is a gadget receiver. So I started positive talking about that defensive line because I really get stuck on where to go with the rest of the roster.

Man, you took my flow of argument here because that's where I'm at with it. I really do like this defense and the preseason hasn't slowed down my optimism about it because yeah, everything you said, I think the defensive front is one of the better ones in football. They're going to be impossible to run against. Like that's a misconception with Burns. He's not just a pass rusher. He actually is pretty good against the run. Like he'll set the edge. He'll get some TFLs in there.

Lawrence, Lawrence, but then other guys that they have Nunez Roches is just a big beefy space, space eater. Um, even the linebackers are care. Okay. And stuff. He's pretty good against the run properly rated. Some people are trying to make him out though. He's underrated. He's properly rated. He's like a nice tier two linebacker. Um,

But then the DBs are young and that is scary. Whatever you say. Oh, yeah. They might have two rookie starting DBs. Yeah, that's a little scary. Deontay Banks, I do think is a star down the road. And they're doing some cool stuff. Yeah, he's a good, good player. Drew Phillips, they have in the slot. He's really dynamic. Went a perfect landing spot here. I like Tyler Newbin. He's showed up a lot in the preseason as well.

Glad you brought up bone as a defense coordinator because he's doing cool stuff like as far as scheme wise doing a lot of cool stuff with the DBs. So that's where my optimism with the Giants lie. But we did when we did our top 10 offenses thing. We did a thing for social media about our 32nd ranked offense and I had the Giants. I it just it's I can't get over the top where I'm like, well, this will do this for this where they're not going to be terrible.

And I hate to sound like that day one, but it's, yeah, I knew who the quarterbacks are. And if you go, yeah, we can go to Drew Locke. Do you want to watch Drew Locke in the preseason? Sorry, that guy's gotten worse. He's gotten worse since he was in Denver. We just remember that Eagles game that he filled in for last year and him and Gino are doing the thing. The hand sails. Yeah, yeah. Oh my God. But yeah, have you watched Drew Locke any other time in his NFL career? Not fun. They had the first preseason game. So they,

Like three of the first five plays, you could tell they were trying to get neighbors like a bomb to like hype up the crowd in New York. And Locke messed up a read on the first play where he checked into a pass when he should have checked into a run. Second place, he doesn't even look in the right direction. The third one, he looks at him and then just goes, eh, and it takes a sack or like he scrambles out and like something happens. And I could tell I'm probably stable. It's like I tried. Like I'm trying, guys. Like I'm trying to shoot some fireworks here, but it keeps I got Locke's

pouring water on all my fuses right now. So I saw you tweet out that neighbors threw his hand up like on his first NFL snap. Hey, I'm open. So that play is hilarious. And this is Drew Locke in a nutshell. I've always said that when I was watching the Broncos, when Locke was starter there,

I could tell he didn't know the play call because he would be looking at the isolated receiver every time, meaning to me that they called the term, the play call, you know, I'll just make up a term, but like sword. And then they say like X dagger and he would just go, Oh, I heard my call X dagger. So he dropped back and look over at the X. Cause he was like, I know what route that guy's running. Cause I just said, I don't know what the other concept I just ran. And that first play against the giant or with the giants, uh,

They run a, it's like a run pass check. It's a safe play. That's why they ran it. If it's a two high soft look, you just pound the rock. If it's single high, we got go balls to both of our outside guys or stop routes, wherever you want to tag it. Two man route. So you better be right with the play, play call, like the play check.

Should be nice and easy. They give it to rookie quarterbacks. I could run it right now without studying anything and get it right. And Drew Locke messes it up on the first play preseason. There it is. There we go. Missed watching you, buddy. Yeah. Neighbors after the game. I saw this from which

which I remember right as I was about to get on the plane to go to the Fantasy Football Expo, I saw that that was the day after that game. So in the morning at the airport, I see headline from Pro Football Talk, Malik Neighbors. I got open, but everything has to go my way to get the ball, which could certainly be the slogan for a certain website, I know. But also, I feel like Malik Neighbors is going to be saying that a lot this year. So it's good that he's getting his practice into the preseason. Also leads to a great example of my argument about...

line over receivers for premium position. But anyways, the...

Getting, oh, did we say over-under? I don't know. I'm going to go under. I don't know either. I'm going to go under as well. But Giants fans, I do like the defense, I will say. Same. Yeah. We started off, we eased into it. You know, we let them down easy. Some of the most optimistic takes I've had on the show, I've been on teams I'm picking unders on because, yeah, Vegas is just making me do it. All right. Next one up.

Getting to the usual top two of the NFC East, we have the Cowboys at nine and a half wins. Oh, yeah, Matt. What do you got about Big D right now? Can you get it in five minutes? Everything that's happened in Dallas last six, seven months and make a succinct way to make you feel about the 2024 season. I mean, I could be succinct here and say that I really, really, really, really want to go under because I'm not.

a lot of what's going on in Dallas right now. You know, none of us picked them as a top 10 offense in our top 10 offenses show. And I was shocked that Dallas fans were so pissed about it because I did we not just spend like four months talking about his team didn't get better at all. And then it's been a top 10 offense for the last like three years. I have to score in 2022. Yeah.

Yeah. Some of the players that were playing for that team this year were just like, oh, no, Jalen Tolbert's going to break out. And I, by the way, I talk about some stocks. I have sneaky, sneaky hit under the couch cushions. Really? Ever from the South Alabama days? Yeah. I thought that film was pretty interesting, but it was South Alabama. You know, you got to always...

It was like the same thing. It was like slot vertical routes. And he was like, just dunking on guys. Right. Like down the field. That's what I remember. Anyways, watching that, that South Alabama. Yeah. I thought he was like an interesting fourth rounder and they took him in the third round. And then he, you know, hasn't done anything really to the end of, in his NFL career at this point, obviously he's,

was a big flop as a rookie for a team that needed some receiver help. So, um, I don't know, we'll see, but like, that's the stuff they're selling you that, Oh, the 2018 backfield of Dalvin cook and Zeke and with Rico Dowell and deuce Vaughn is still on the, like that that's going to carry the day. So I really, really want to go under here, but I think nine and a half is a little, like, I think they can win 10 games and be mildly disappointing, but I don't know. I,

I can't read this one here to go over under because I don't feel good about this team. I feel like they are going to take a step back, but I also struggled getting them. As long as Dak and CD Lam are healthy, I struggled to get them to nine or eight wins or something like that.

The Tyler Guyton not looking like a total project at left tackle is doing a lot for me because I was a little lower on him in the draft. Like, I totally understand why someone would take a swing on him in the first round because he had traits and everything. But he was the true, like, oh, that's more of a project as opposed to a guy. It's like, oh, he has traits we can work with. I think there's just small differences. Maybe it's just my brain. But yeah.

I was never played left side, but it had lower body kind of stuff where he was, you know, his anchor wasn't good. So I was like, all right, this guy down the road could be some stuff because he's long and athletic. He can move like a lot, like very few guys can. And then they're popping them day one left side.

Yeah, not making a top 10 offense with Tyler Garten starting at left tackle and whoever starting at center. Preseason happens. Guyton looks so much further along. The center, Cooper Beebe, that is playing in there looks really good. And just mentally, too. I've heard he's a smart guy, but he was handling it really well. Dak is going to do a lot to help him. That's what helps when you have a quarterback like Dak that handles so much pre-snap.

can ruin the flow of the offense sometimes, but that's how they're going to run it. That's going to help him out, at least mentally, I think. So I didn't, it wasn't as big of a blemish as it was for me a month ago. Maybe when we did the top 10 offenses, I'm still like not all the way there because like you said, the running back room that sure. That's all I just keep saying. I just keep looking at the running backs. Just like, sure, sure. All right. Yeah, sure. I, uh, Jake Ferguson, good player, CD lamb, love CD lamb. Brandon cooks is just another year older though.

And then it's just, so it's just all these in between guys that, that gets me antsy with this team on defense. So I'm Michael Parsons. They still have cool players on the back end. I know blank got hurt and everything. They have Mike fricking Zimmer. And that's doing a lot for me that I had him as a top five defense because Zimmer is a lot more sound as a coach than Dan Quinn, Dan Quinn's, you know, energy, energy, energy, no speed, speed, speed. If you make a mistake, do a fast, we'll cover it up with speed. That's

That's how that Cowboys defense kind of felt. Maybe some of the better offenses would get them sometimes because they would just be a little bit more sound. Zimmer is the opposite. It's you better be freaking here. You better be here. You're not playing. And then I like that. I kind of like it. They have a cool group of DBs. Zimmer's really good with DBs and using these guys. Remember Harrison Smith stuff, all the things they would do on the back end.

I'm really digging the defense. Even if I stare at the linebackers and go, Oh shoot again, just because I think Zimmer, we better equip to mitigate that than maybe Quinn was. So I'm really, maybe the top five was a little hot on them, a little spicy, but I really do think this defense is still going to be really good. Even losing Quinn. Cause I think Zimmer's that good. I think the blitz packages are going to be insane with Micah Parsons. So I'm very excited about the D I've come around on the offense. I,

I ended up being over nine and a half wins. If you ask me that, like them and the Rams kind of switched my brain for me a little bit where I became a little bit more optimistic. I just trust Dak. I trust CD. Mike McCarthy did a good job last year of adjusting their offense. Him and Schottenheimer, one of the most shocking developments in the, of the entire season. I, if you ask me that McCarthy and Schottenheimer were innovative offensive play callers. Yeah, that, yeah, not my bingo card. So yeah,

Ended up as the over for me, which is just, yeah, I did not think I'd be there a month ago. So with Ezekiel Elliott playing running back. All right. Someone that improved at running back in a different way than the other. The last team of the NFC East, the favorites of the NFC East. That is the Philadelphia Eagles, who are at 10 and a half wins, according to BetMGM. All right. Cowboys rival. Cowboys are rivals for everyone. But the Eagles. How are you feeling about them, Matt? I'm excited.

Yeah, I'm going to go with pretty much similar analysis to why I had them as a top 10 offense, which is I just think this team is too big, too talented to fail. I will go over on 10 and a half for them. Look, I know what you're going to say about the coordinator and stuff like that. I'm excited to talk through that. I think it's I've actually talked about the Kellen Moore, Jalen Hurts marriage a lot this offseason, but overall, like

My analysis is just that I do think this team is too good, too talented to fail. Even defensively, you know...

I don't know that just dropping Devin White in here is going to fix your linebacker problems. Just going to go in the right direction, at least. Yeah, right. Just, hey, buddy, this way. But I do think that the defensive, like the secondary evolution, I think, is going in the right direction. That will at least be a pretty big difference from what we saw last year. So that and just, again, talent on offense. I'll go over here.

I actually am going over because everything you said, I don't, I don't view it's weird. I think this team can win 11 games, maybe even 12. I also think that they can maybe win a playoff game, but I don't view them as a true contender. And it's just kind of this weird, I just can't get all the way there because I think they're again, like it's gonna be better feelings than last year. I think that's easy to say, even though they're already having a source off in Philadelphia right now. That that's another thing that's hard for me to get over is that like,

before the games even start, we're already starting to, you know, put our excuses out there. It's not my fault. Already getting the... No, no, no. We're playing the blame game. Also, Frank Schwab said on my pod that this is a team that could either win the Super Bowl or fire its head coach by Thanksgiving and you wouldn't be surprised either way. And I think that's like...

why it's hard to say they're a true, true contender. But again, I'm just generally optimistic because of the players. That's it. I wanted to be like, oh, yeah, they're going to blow up this year. I just don't think they can. Just what you said. Even if the Jason Kelsey losing him, especially the mental side, I'm fascinated by. They still have Jeff Stoutland, the offensive line coach. They still have Jordan Maialata. They still have Landon Dickerson. They still have frigging Landon. I almost call him Landon Jones. That was his quarterback. Lane Johnson.

But Landry Jones, if you remember that. Landry Jones, what a pull. Oh, my God. I don't know why Lane Johnson became Landry Jones. Oklahoma, I guess, maybe. Yeah, yeah, but my brain just did that. But that offense is going to score points. It doesn't matter who's calling plays. It's just they have too much talent. They had Saquon, who's a little boom busty. But the thing is, it's Saquon. He's an improvement of who they had.

Kind of weird that they're bringing up him receiving the ball a lot. Jalen Hurts never throws to his running backs. Off-season thing. Off-season chat, right? Devon Achan's going to line up at wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins. Hey, did you hear Kyle Pitts is lining up at receiver this year? He's never done in his career. He's lining up at receiver this year. Tony Pollard lining up in the slot for the 2023 Dallas Cowboys. Oh, God. It's the best. Oh, yeah. Everybody's a slash now. The real slash is Hayward's little brother in Pittsburgh.

He plays running back, fullback, tailback. He plays everything for him. Again, Arthur Smith writing that down right now. Like, how can I get this guy four touchdowns to drive fantasy people crazy? Arthur Trott, John O. Washington.

Arthur trotted out Najee Harris and three tight ends weighing over 260 pounds and George Pickens. And I was like, I'm back, baby. Let's do this. But everything you said, it's just that this offense is too good. They actually have Bryce off as opposed to Hassan Reddick, who's just hanging out with the Jets right now. Ask Charles what this fine money is at because Charles is keeping like day to day hourly tabs on it. I just think they improve. It can't be worse than the day last time. I still have.

issues with their spine a little bit, but they had issues with it last year and I thought it was worse last year and they still won double-digit games and almost won their division. So yeah, I think it's an over. I like the rookies they drafted, Dejean, Quinion Mitchell. Also want to give Milton Williams a shout out. Haven't given him a shout out. Milton Williams, defensive lineman, 93. Think he'll break out a little bit for them this year. So I'm with you on the Eagles. It feels a little bit like a shrug, but it's, I want to see how this offense works with more

Cam Juergens, Jalen Hurts. I have some concerns, but maybe they answer those concerns early and it feels a lot better. All right. That was the NFC East. We have one more division, the NFC South. We're going to take a quick break. I'll see you guys in a sec.

Forget one-size-fits-all diets. With Noom, you get a personalized weight loss plan that's tailored to your lifestyle. Have cravings? Food FOMO? Noom can help you lose weight while still enjoying your favorite foods. Noom's users love the flexible approach, blending psychology and biology to help you lose weight in a way that's sustainable for you. Plus, you can rest assured Noom's approach is grounded in science. They've published more than 30 peer-reviewed scientific articles describing their methods and effectiveness.

Stay focused on what's important to you with Noom's psychology and biology-based approach. Sign up for your trial today at Noom.com.

You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you? Deliver that feeling to your customers, every time. Memorable moments like these are key to building your business and your brand. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. So you can continue to build smarter, more meaningful relationships with your customers. Build smarter digital relationships with your customers. And make every moment count with Klaviyo.

Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM. Last but not least, even though Stone, producer Stone, made it out this way. I'm blaming you, Stone. I'm sorry. But NFC South!

Man, it's all spoilers here. Falcons have nine and a half and they're at top and they look at other divisions. It's like seven and a half, seven and a half at the bottom. So we're going to start with the Panthers who did have the number one pick. That was with the Bears this year. Sorry to remind you guys, but the Carolina Panthers have five and a half wins, win total.

Matt, I know how you feel about Deontay Johnson. Other than Deontay Johnson, how do you feel about the Carolina Panthers in 2024? Yeah. You know, we did a – well, spoiler alert or peek behind the curtain. We did a fantasy bold predictions show that's coming out with Andy Barron's next week. We pre-taped it. I didn't say that on the –

I didn't say that on the show, but yeah, it's pre-taped. So we taped today. One of my bold predictions was Deontay Johnson would be a wide receiver one this year. I made the joke that like, you know, the goofy meme of him saying, I'll F and do it again. And like, that's me with Deontay Johnson. Like I'll do it again, but I'm not going to talk about Deontay Johnson here, even though I think he's the most important off season acquisition. I tell you, I went on a different show and we talked about Deontay Johnson and I was like, Hey, my co-host, you know,

Matt Armitage said he's the most important acquisition. They're like, wow, really? And I'm like, hey, he knows his receivers, man. Yeah.

I'm sure I won't be invited onto whatever show that was after that display. But anyways, I think, look, he's going to help this offense. I think he's going to be super productive and the separator that Bryson needs. I think Dave Canales, the vibes are going to be a lot better than they were with Frank Reich last year. Hard to say it'll be any worse. This team won two games last year. I'll still go under five and a half here because they could win four, they could win five, and that could be market improvement. And I also think...

that their defense is going to be worse than it was last year. That's a pretty good way to put it all up. I think they're going to be under two, under six and a half, because this roster was just so bad last year, and the quarterback play as well, which partly Bryce Young, partly the system around him. But I just didn't think it was that drastic of an improvement. They're drafting Xavier Leguette. Fun player. Interesting. Interesting.

you're going to give him real reps right away and ask him to run a full route tree right away. Okay. All right. Not what I would do, but all right, sure. I'd kind of prefer maybe the more steady hand initially for a Jalen Polk.

a lad mcconkey you know those types that can maybe truly rely on down in and down out uh no offense elizabio again he could be very sound right away i'm just archetyping up in the off season though you know that doesn't help no he doesn't no it doesn't uh same with mingo jonathan mingo that was his story coming out college of old miss uh adam thielen's empty and he's yeah he's reliable but he creates about a centimeter of separation uh the offensive line they they

They didn't try to improve upon. I like the idea of improving the guards and saying, hey, let's help out our smaller quarterback. Give him some space to operate and everything. Are they the best guards in the world? No, but they're a little bit of an improvement. What they have, the coaching just has to be better. They were so unsound last year. Ihe Kwanu has nosedived. He went from, oh, a surprising rookie. Wow, this is going to be worth it to like,

I mean, he was unplayable at times. Yeah, it was miserable. Yeah, it's weird, too, because I thought it clicked for him at the end of his rookie year. Usually you don't see the click and then the unclick in the second year. Yeah, so that's weird. I'm hoping just the situation's better, but who knows. And then that's interesting about the defense that you said. It's, man, you look at that back end.

Yeah, it's a little scary, isn't it? Yeah, I mean, all the good things we said about Brian Burns in the Giants section. Yeah. Well, he's not on this team anymore. Like, Derrick Brown rocks, and then it's...

Yeah. JC Horn's pretty good. We get another great season out of Jadeveon Clowney. The immortal Jadeveon Clowney. It's just the ultimate mercenary for hire on defense. Yeah, I just can't get overwhelmed with it. Oh, and then they draft a hurt running back in Jonathan Brooks. It's just...

For this year, I just can't see that jump in improvement. And if it were to see a jump in improvement, it's the quarterback getting markedly better. And I do think it'll be better around it, but it's possible. But that's just, again, we're talking bets here and everything. I think there's going to be improvement, but it's going to be more to like, oh, there's some once of averageness here and not like, wow, this is good.

Yeah, I know. Sorry, Carolina. I wish I could have a little bit more for you. This is where we're at right now. I do like Canals, though. That is a good call. I will say that there. All right, moving on to the Saints. Seven and a half wins. New Orleans Saints. Have you been trying to make, like, parse through this team? This is a team to parse through. This is a team to really look at every position group and have some real long thoughts. This could be a three-hour pod just to get the Saints roster. Yeah.

I know, which is so funny because I feel as if they're just kind of boring. Like from a public standpoint, they're just what are we doing here? Dennis Allen's the coach again. Derek Carr is the quarterback again. The offensive line, if you had concerns, the preseason did not make you feel any better. I've been banging the negative drum and I'm like getting louder with it. I'm like, are we seeing this? I'm like the Energizer bunny with it, which is so unfortunate because I think these receivers are

Really, really interesting. Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, you know, even AT Perry makes the team. And I feel like it could have a nice role as a sacrificial X receiver for this team. So they can do some cool stuff with these other two guys, but they're really, really talking up Taysom Hill.

They always do it, but they're really doing it this year. That's got to make you nervous. It does. Yes. It does make me nervous. For real. Yahoo Fantasy has to submit to the masses the torch and pitchfork of, well, he's got to have quarterback tight end eligibility because he's going to play so freaking much. He's going to score points at your tight end position, so we've got to give in to the masses there. That's just the offense.

we'll see what happens on defense but I don't know Nate I'll just put it to you this way I do really want to go over here because seven and a half is pretty light and there are some parts of this roster I'm optimistic on but like dude if we're I just had this random thought in watching one of their preseason games watching Spencer Rattler in particular when I'm not I'm not some Rattler truth or anything like that I have like strong feelings about Rattler but could

Could you not see this team being this year's version of the Raiders where just by like week five, like, okay, that's enough. Let's just fire Dennis Allen, put Clint Kubiak out there as a head coach who cares. And let's just start Spencer Rattler and make our way to next season. I could easily see that being the case with this team. I think I now, uh,

after a potential out with Carr's contract after this year, too. So it's not like they're, you know, after this year, not all the way in there. God, you kind of just nailed it. Because especially if you look at our lads, it starts with receivers. I'm like, hell yeah. Perry, Olave, Sheed, and then the next one's left tackle. Fuwaga.

Oh, that's right. The guy that I thought would be best as a guard in the NFL. And maybe you could see as a right tackle is playing left tackle on a team that will drop left tackle. No, no question has never been a question. He's just going to be never been. That's it. And with Penning, who is, it's just a bust. I'm not scared to say it. It,

It has not had any semblance of decent play. They have a right tackle. You only give chip up to one usually. All right. Now you got the interior of the offensive line. Eric McCoy is great. Caesar is fine. Left guard is just a turnstile already. Like they're just figuring out the bodies. They're trying to get their best five out there. And this is their best five. If it was a quarterback, like let's say a rookie Drake may. Yeah, I'd be okay. Cause he'll run around a little bit and it's not gonna be great.

Derek Carr doesn't scramble. Derek Carr is skittish under pressure. He likes to check the ball down, as we see the Houston Texans game last year when Kamara ended up with, what, 14 catches, I think, in that game. That

is what I think this offense is going to be week in, week out. It's just going to be the wrong game. It'd be whatever. I think the past game will be, there's going to be a couple of big plays, design plays because the receivers are too good and car will put it, put it out there for them. But I think down in, down out, there are going to be some rough weeks with this offense.

And that's, I like the defense. I've really come around on it. There's some good players. They play feisty. They got good guys on all three levels. But again, it's not where I'm like, oh, overwhelmed. This is a top five defense. I can carry it for him. I'm actually going to go under

I under seven and a half, but that's where I think they're going to hover. This is seven, eight win team to me, which is kind of, this is what they built and they just don't have the line to where I think they can push them over the top to something more. So going with the under, you end up going with the slight over. I'll go slight. Like I literally will go eight. Okay. And I'll go seven. Perfect. It is by the books. One is over and one is under.

Nailed it. Another team next on up in the NFC South. Also had seven and a half wins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A team, another summer team for me, but I don't want to spoil it too much. But yeah, the Bucs. How are we feeling about the Bucs right now, Matt? Okay, so...

They're another team that, and I would love to just do the dumb thing of why is nobody talking about the bucks in, in the most saturated industry potentially in the league, which is NFL coverage, which, Hey, let's keep saturating that thing. Let's let's keep cashing these checks. Make sure we have the faces for YouTube. Yeah. Got to keep working out here. Anyways. Oh, I know for me.

That's the first thing I stare at when we get on camera. I'm like, okay, Jowls are okay. You got to get an ice roller. We'll talk off. We'll talk off. We'll talk off. Anyways, they're a team that I do think has gotten a little under-discussed this offseason just because there's so much attention paid to the Falcons. Other teams in the division are a little interesting, but

I've gotten more and more just enthusiastic and kind of like, I think the Bucs are going to win this division because I don't love... Part of me thought originally, I don't love just doubling down on last year's core. Let's just run it all back. I get that. Liam Cohen coming in for Dave Canales. I think maybe a lateral move at best, certainly not an upgrade. But I do think that these players are really good. And I think they got some...

Surprising performances out of like Kalijah can't see last year. I think they got some really nice performances out of like Yaya Diaby as well on defense. And then Antoine Winfield's a star. You know, they, they trade Carlton Davis, but they had some good performances from like Jamel Dean last year, you know? So I think we can run that back and feel pretty good on defense. And Todd Bowles is always going to get you to like, he's a floor setter on defense and even kind of like a ceiling reacher at times too, just because conceptually what he can do to bad quarterbacks and,

And on offense, man, like I'm, I'm in on the Jalen McMillan outside receiver thing. I didn't love McMillan as a slot. Like I didn't love him as a prospect, but when, and then when they start talking him up as an outside receiver, cause they want to move Chris Godwin to the slot, which I know you and I are both in on that warning bells were going off a little bit, a little bit for me. So I actually think I can, I think I can see it here with Jalen McMillan and the, as an outside receiver, which again, I'm with you at first. I was like, I don't know if I love that.

because I thought he was just kind of like a mid-slot receiver prospect. But looking at his reception perception profile, he was a 19th percentile player against zone. He was a 49th percentile player against man coverage, which actually –

I mean, 49th percentile, whatever. But he's a little bit better on these quick hitting routes against man coverage. And I don't think they really had that guy as that second receiver last year because Godwin's not that type of guy. Again, I think I like him in the power slot role. Mike Evans is Mike Evans. I love what they did with him as a route concept standpoint. So I'm in on the offense, at least maintaining what it was last year. It's kind of like a boom busty offense. So I'll go over on their win total here pretty convincingly.

Yeah, I'm over. I'm right there with you. This team went from an afterthought for me, and I'll be open on it. I've talked to Charles about this. Really an afterthought if I'm studying 32 teams. Yeah, they're probably one of the last five teams I'm studying. In the last month, I've kind of really dove in because I was like, I know most of these players. And I really look at them, look at other rosters, look at this division, and

Seeing what they did last year on an incomplete team, and it's not that any team's complete. This team's a little bit better at least filling out some of the gaps and everything. It's just, yeah, I trust it a little bit more than others, even with a new play caller on offense. Because you mentioned all the defense guys, improvement for some of those young guys are...

better play than some of those young guys, good players at all three levels, which matters. A defensive system. They all know like the back of their hand because they've been in it for what? Five years now. And that defense, it's great because especially in a division like this. Yeah, it's a bad QB beater. It's a, all right, what do you got? What's a bad protection beater as the season goes along? The offense for me, Baker and by nature is going to be boom busty, but he plays with a receiver. That's perfect for it. And Evans, um,

They even if you say that he drops off a little bit, he's more middle of the pack on passing downs, you know, third down as opposed to top 10 as he was a lot of other stuff. The run game, I think it's just gonna be so much better and so much more cohesive, so much more efficient that it'll trade off some of the boom bustness of the past game that the run game kind of offsets that a little bit where they're not so many third logs. Now they can get some better situations for that. And.

and McMillan's a great shout out. Graham Barton, their first round rookie, I won't shut him about. And then once he gets into preseason, he looks exactly how I thought he looked. I won't stop talking about Barton because he is going to change that whole offense. I totally agree. Yeah, people think I'm kidding about it. I'm dead serious. Just watch it.

And then the right guard, Cody Mock, improving. Mock was unplayable last year and now looks like he's OK, which is better than unplayable. But going from OK at center to what I think is already very good or good, we'll say as a rookie, a good solid right tackle and get a key. One of the best left tackles of the game, Tristan Wirfs. And, you know, left left guard is kind of NPC for him.

but that's better than last year where all three middle positions were, whatever. Get a key was fine. Improved that run games can be better. Rashad whites and the offense that makes more sense for him with some of the Cohen stuff. I know can houses a little bit. Everybody has offense, but Cohen being the true more McVay guy, uh,

Rashad White, the former receiver, kind of makes sense in this offense. And they got him a backup that makes sense too in Bucky Irving. So, yeah, I really came along in this team that I think the defense will be good. I think the offense will be fine at least and have moments where they're tough because of how good their players are. So, yeah, Bucks end up being an over in my prediction for the division winner as well. Kind of

Yeah. The Bucks and Seahawks. They've been my summer teams. That's the best way to describe it. It's because we were turning to so many guys. Does this mean to transition us to the Falcons? Does this mean that you're under on the Falcons? I am under on the Falcons. You're under half? You want me? Yeah, go into it. Yeah.

I do think the offense will be improved because it's not Ritter quarterback. It's Cousins. Cousins last year, even coming off an Achilles and all that. He doesn't win with movement. He moves in the pocket. Well, he moves wins by pushing the ball operating from the pocket. Good. Okay, fine. Offense Alliance solid getting a little overrated. Drew Dahlman's okay. Lindstrom's good. Left guard birds around pretty good. McGarry's not good. Matthews is fine. Yeah.

Yeah. Usually when people talk about McGarry, the first thing they say is, well, they paid him and it's like, well, that doesn't always mean everything. Maybe it's because they just could, you know, all that. Yeah. And this offense will be fine for him. I think Drake London's going to have his breakout year. Pits will be better. I think this offense will be good for him. Um, so like the offense, I am just like, I think Bijan is one of my darkest picks for offense player of the year. I, I actually, it's a straight up pick. I think that's spoilers for next week's show. That's what we're doing Tuesday, by the way, awards. Uh, but yeah, uh,

It's the defense. And I know they added Judon. I know they added Simmons. Jimmy Lake doesn't do much for me at defense coordinator. Raheem Morrison, the Rams was did a great job of hodgepodge and what they had. They had Aaron Donald and that did a lot of lifting for what they try to accomplish. It wasn't great. It was like 22nd and it was more just like, wow, that's good that they got to 22nd as opposed to like, no, that's actually a good unit.

And that's what scares me is, okay, you guys can get a bunch of shootouts. Cousins is coming off an Achilles. You never know if there's other injuries that are to come. He's not a big guy. And so there's just, I have all those concerns where I think this could be a fine team, but it's more of an eight or nine win team, not an overwhelming, holy crap, easy runs away with the division.

I think it's them and the Bucks are going to be competing for it. So I'm going to go under. I just, that defense, it doesn't get me. I like AJ Terrell. I like the back end, the Bates and Simmons. Simmons is going to take a little drop off though. He did last year. Defensive front, Judon is good, but he's a tight end killer. And he really benefited from how the Patriots ran their defense. So again, it just doesn't add up to me where I'm like, yeah, I'm all on board with all these guys like everybody else is. I think it's more of a fine team. They'll have a really fun offense, I think.

I'm pretty much with you there. I want to be more optimistic about this team, but the defense is definitely a tough thing to get around. That could be a bottom five unit, which for fantasy, if we want to talk about these players, that could end up being a good thing on offense. And I also think we do need to have a little bit of a come to Jesus moment about the Kirk Cousins stuff where it's better than Ritter.

No question. It'll even be better than 2022 Marcus Mariota. By the way, they were...

They were 11th in offensive success rate. Uh, in 19, tell me, I was going to say, I know these are all the stats I threw up people. No one gave a when that thing blew up my face. I have, I have podcasts after podcast tweet after tweet defending and have all these disclaimers, all this back. No one cared. No one cared in the ad. It was a great learning, learning experience, Matt. Yep. Yep. Nope. All that matters is the bottom line and what really happens. Um,

Yeah. Welcome, welcome, uh, welcome to media. Yeah. Welcome to media baby. Uh, but yeah, no, for real. Like I think the, with the Kirk Cousins stuff, he's better than Ritter, but,

he's an older quarterback coming off an Achilles. And we always look at the end result with, with Kirk cousins. We're like, Oh, he was the 12th best quarterback in the league. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But it was always like, it's always a journey to get there. Like there's a lot of peaks and valleys where he's playing like the worst quarterback in the league for three weeks. And then the best quarterback in the league for three weeks. And we ended on a really good stretch there in Minnesota before he got injured. But yeah,

The season before was one of his least efficient seasons from a yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt perspective. I just don't know what guy we're going to get consistently for 17 games. I know that guy is going to be better than Desmond Ritter. I know that. But is he going to be good enough to...

make this a playoff team with a roster that is, I don't think, drop a quarterback in there and we're Super Bowl ready. Even offensively, I love Drake London. I'm a Drake London guy. I think by the end of the year, he will be considered a Tier 2 NFL receiver. He will be not an elite player, but a firmly superstar receiver. I think this coaching staff is...

perfectly suited to get more out of him from an alignment perspective where I've defended our guy Arthur Smith more than most the last few seasons, but he pretty much just stuck Drake London out at X receiver and especially last year because Ritter can't read the middle of the field. It's a lot of like curl routes. So

I think London's deployment will look dramatically different, but then we've got Darnell Mooney as an outside receiver, like Ray McLeod. Yeah, Ray McLeod's the other guy. It starts to look pretty concerning. So I'll also call them a nine-win team here, which means I have to say they're under. That's it. I know, Ray McLeod. We're in number 34.

I mean, that's despicable. That's almost Skymore 24 bad. Yeah, that one's pretty rough too. That's brutal. I like Skymore as a prospect. Another guy like low level of competition, really good reception, perception score. So you always got to kind of do that asterisk there. But I liked him as a second round pick. You see him on

on film in the NFL, it's already disaster enough. And it's like, geez, God almighty, we're wearing 24. It's not a pleasant experience. That's right. Yeah. You have to be a stud player to pull off a number. Like Steven Jackson wore 39, which is an ugly number, in my opinion. Looks good. And you're like, Dan, that looks good. And then you see it on Lawrence Brody and you're like, maybe not. Hell yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Go for it. Or Kamara wearing 41.

Oh yeah. He wears 41. Sweet. Then you see the linebacker for the Raiders wearing it and you're like, make that 44 or something a little bit better. I also, you know, there's no Justin Jefferson as much as I like Drake London. I'm glad you brought up the Darnell Mooney thing because that's got me worried. And the Ray, Ray, Ray, Ray McLeod thing. Also, are we forgetting about the Kirk cousins tier? Like that, that this was the joke for years now that these are the middle ground quarterbacks. Which cousins do you have?

Do you have Carr? Do you have Jimmy G? You know, that was always the joke. Kirk was kind of the best version of it. Goff was in this group for a while. Purdy, I guess, is in it now. But yeah, I don't know. It's not like Kirk Cousins is like, it's not, you're getting Brady, Peyton Manning, you know, those guys that are future Hall of Famers. I like Kirk too, and he was having a good year, but I'm glad we're kind of throwing some cold water on it. All right.

A little shorter than the last time. The NFC win totals. Thank you, Matt, for joining me. We're closing it out. You'll be back on Tuesday. Me, you and Chuck. I think all of us for awards. Hell yeah. I'm excited about it. And I'm glad we can make this under two hours. Close to cut it close. I'm trying to squeeze it. We're going to have division division picks, Super Bowl winners, Super Bowl finalists, all the awards, offense player of the year.

Producer said that they're going to come up with some others. But yeah, that's on Tuesday. I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice. Matt, where can they find you on social media? At Matt Harmon underscore BYB, Nate. Exciting announcement involving you and I on my podcast next week. So if you're listening to this now, make sure you subscribe to the Yahoo Fantasy forecast to hear that. Synergy.

Corporate synergy. It's always great. The bosses are happy. Yes, exactly. Make sure you say the title, all of them. All right, but make sure you subscribe to us at Football 301. Subscribe to Matt's show as well. Follow us, rate us, watch us on YouTube on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Follow us on Snapchat as well, Yahoo Sports, if you're into that kind of thing. And also send a mailbag questions. We'll be doing those down the road. Football301mailbag at yahoosports.com. Thank you to Stone, Brett, and Addy. Behind the scenes, thank you to Matt for joining me.

We will also have a great Labor Day weekend. Hopefully four hours of preview content is enough for your travels this week. Everybody stay safe. Have a lot of fun. Watch some football. We'll see you guys next week.