Confidence level in every division leader: Steelers, Commanders, Bills & more
01:15:59 Share

Fun episode of Football 301 today. We recap week four through the lens of looking at all eight division winners in the NFL. Matt Harmon joins me to do that. We preview Monday Night Football, look at the eight division winners, and we go from there. See you guys in a sec.

Credit Karma is your evolved financial assistant, making managing your finances simpler and more tailored to you. Join us at CreditKarma.com to start your personalized financial journey today and continue to grow with our innovations. Credit Karma, evolve your finances. Getting the smile and confidence you've been dreaming about all from the comfort of your home isn't a total mystery with Byte Clear Aligners. Just don't be surprised if all your friends start asking, what's your secret?

♪♪♪

Hello and welcome back to Football 301. I am your host, Nate Tice. We have our week four recap show today. Doing it through the lens of the division leaders right now. All eight teams we are going to be looking at. The pros, the cons, the good, the bad, and the ugly. How we feel about each of these eight teams going forward. What stood out to us so far. Us.

being Mr. Matt Harmon, who is joining me to do that today, as always on Tuesday. How are you doing today, Mr. Matt Harmon?

I'm doing great. Nate Tice. We should just go full names. Mr. Tice, it's great to be back here on the show with you. Really interesting week four. You know, I feel like this is when things are starting to normalize. We're starting to really get a handle on these teams. And, you know, it's always a good time to do these type of check-ins. Like, do we really buy into these teams? Are we skeptical of what we're seeing? And there's always a little bit of balance with everything. So I'm excited about it. I will.

I wish I didn't have to do a take until after week four because then it's just stats are all so wonky, which is one or two game sample sizes. But I still want to extrapolate for them and plant flags and say this is all fixed and this is all good or this is all bad. But it just shows like we don't know who's good or who's bad yet. We have inklings. You know, there's ideas of it. But after four weeks, we start, you know, things start to crystallize. I would say six weeks is even better. Eight weeks is even better from that.

That's the best part, too. The things we say here today will look completely ridiculous by the time we get to December. So, I mean, yeah, it's like right now. All right. I'm starting to get a handle on which defenses are bad. You want to attack these matchups, this unit struggling. How can they fix this problem? And then by December, they might have fixed it and we're rolling and none of this really matters. So, hey, that's why football is great. Week one last year, the Chargers run game was totally fixed.

I was like, oh, I remember that week one Dolphins Chargers game. I was like, man, everyone, everyone got everyone fixed here. This is going to be great. Yeah. So be careful of what you extrapolate from these games. But that's exactly what we're going to do. But before we do that, please send in your mailbag questions to football301mailbag at yahoosports.com. I see a couple trickling in. I'd like a few more. We're going to answer those very soon. Maybe not this week, but next week. I think that'll be a good time to do it. And again, like I said, we are going to be recapping.

the eight division leaders. Some are expected, you know, kind of the favorites, some chalk up there. Some are some surprises, mild surprises, big surprises. I'm sure there's one for sure that I would consider a big surprise, but it's gonna be really fun breaking down all those teams. Before we do that, we are going to recap Monday Night Football. Titans,

At the Dolphins was the first Monday night game. Thank goodness, two weeks in a row, we have these double headers where we can just take a nice right turn into the second game as the first game starts veering off the road. All right, Matt Harmon, when you watch the Titans-Dolphins game, which felt like last year's Titans-Dolphins game in the weirdest way, because I also thought it was a night game, wonky things happen. But what were some of your takeaways from this game?

Yeah, I mean, on the Titans side, I don't really know too much of what to say. They get out of a win here when they have to play Mason Rudolph, who has, what, like 85 yards on 17 pass attempts. I don't really know too much to say with them. But on the Dolphins side, man, you know, the stats been floating around. They have not had a single play with a lead all year. I really was excited to kind of talk to you about this because, yeah,

It's just how disturbed should we be that this team goes from a remember when we did the top 10 offenses show we're all just like yeah you know the dolphins are the dolphins man they're going to be great like let's see what it is in December but we know who they are they're great offense especially to start the year.

How disturbing is it that they go from that team to a freaking JV squad? I mean, they can't do anything at this point of the season. Just because you take away Tua. We all like Tua. He's a good quarterback, but I think we've

And maybe we need to revise these takes. I don't know if that's true, but he's always been sort of the product of the environment type of guy. You take him away, the environment completely goes to hell. And the run game has been probably the most disappointing thing to me to start the season. So this is from NextGenStats. The Dolphins run game has the highest stuff rate in the league at 29.9%. Almost a quarter.

a third of their run plays are just DOA, completely dead on arrival here. That is despite the fact, Nate, that they've run to the second lowest rate of light boxes, 11.2%. Only the Rams are lower. So they're getting favorable run looks, and they cannot run the ball at all. I know that Raheem Mostert's not out there, but man, this is a pretty disturbing situation on offense right now. And I just wonder, like,

on the level of disturbed, how high should we be at this point with Mike McDaniel and a coaching staff that we really thought we could have a lot of trust in? I'm, I'm still have faith in Mike McDaniel, but it's not the team building is really leaving me and the desire to keep, you know, poking, you know, plowing through this. I think just how the last few seasons have ended, especially with all the injuries adding up. I think this, this,

You could really just feel it on the team. I think the collateral damage and the mental toll that takes where it's like, oh, our starter's out again. And I, cause I usually when you starter goes out, I think there is some human element where the defense kind of gets an uptick. And then here it just feels like the defense kind of blah. Yeah.

And, you know, they had moments get rushed into pasture and everything, but it wasn't like it's not like an outstanding unit, which is also why I'm taking Drake May should start this week. But but also it's just the sidebar. But they do. They just feel like a zombie team as opposed to a team that's like, hey, we're going to get through this until Tua gets back. And even before Tua got hurt.

The Jags, whose defense has fallen apart, had them in the walls of Jericho in week one until they hit a couple of huge plays. And then week two against the Bills, it wasn't a good offensive day. The Bills were stomping them, and then two got hurt at the end. So it's just a strange team. It's always been a fragile team. It's a team built on...

the 5% upside, like where everyone's healthy. So I feel like that the fact that they got a hit with their quarterback out, other things happening, the offensive line is just porous as well. And they already do the things that mitigate an offensive line. That's how bad it is, is that they already do all the bumpers and the training wheels to help out their own line. And it still feels just horrendous. I'm glad he brought up the rushing stat. I was looking at rushing yards over expected earlier today because I was looking at the Ravens and the Eagles who are one and two, by the way.

And I noticed that I was like, all right, who's dead last? Cause I was like the look at the, the muck. And I think the dolphins were like dead last by like a long shot, like not even close to anybody else. So they just, they just feel like a zombie team. If they can't run the ball at all with an offense, that's just actually supposed to be built around it. I know we look at the receivers and,

This is what it is. And the fact that two has had injury history, I'm still confused that maybe they didn't have a guy that's a Joe Flacco level. I mean, shoot, like I like that. It's just it's a strange thing where they I feel like they really just built on that upside and didn't think about any of the repercussions of it.

That's a great point. It's just it's unfortunate for McDaniel that it comes at a time when Matt LaFleur gets deep into his bag and brings out this. I mean, the other side, I've been saying it's almost like a it's like a Pop Warner offense, what they did with Malik Willis. And they won. They won two games doing it. You know, and obviously we'll talk about the Vikings later on. That's a little bit of a different situation because they prepared for Sam Darnold to be their starter early in the season. So not totally fair. But at the same time, we're just taking a new quarterback and we're running.

We're 4-0. We're running an extremely clean, functional offense. They did this last year, Kevin O'Connell did, where they cycled out quarterbacks and different guys and they built around, they changed things up. It feels like Miami is trying to run the same offense with guys like Skyler Thompson and then Snoop Huntley last night. It's never going to be the same. I actually really couldn't picture from a passing game perspective, like forget the mobility and the

the ability to scramble, all that type of stuff. I can't really picture like two different styles of quarterbacks than Snoop Huntley and Tua anyways. So right. And Tua's clockwork, like he is just, yeah, yes, he is by the script. Yeah, no, totally different quarterbacks.

Yeah, so it's pretty tough. I don't really know where the Dolphins go from here, but they're and again, I do think people are going to start to ask or like want to ask Mike McDaniel questions. I'm not sure if I'm there yet, but it's at least on my radar, very minimum that they go from one of the great offenses in the league to completely non-functional and in the blink of an eye to just a shrug.

that yeah i mean it's i want to say too it's like is the titans defense good like that's another thing too yeah that's true sweat had a good good game uh their second and success rate allowed so like they're there's some underlying numbers here kind of point to this they're wow i'm going to you're right you're right about that this is something i said after week one was that that titans defense i think is underrated i know so yeah some of the caleb takes from that it's like hey just wait just wait till they play maybe some more puff puffy defenses so

There is some element of that, but I don't know. I just feel like the run game not being functional is so disappointing. I think that's where I still thought that they would still be able to get 150 yards on the ground and maybe 50 yards passing. But at least they would do something. But yeah, I just felt like I feel like they're just a zombie team right now. So zombie Dolphins.

Moving on to the other Monday night game, which turned into a shootout, which was a lot of fun. That is the Seahawks at the Lions. The Lions took this game with Jared Goff being perfect on the day with Ben Johnson, the sniper, just dialing things up for him. I got some stats on it. But when you watch this game, other than being entertained, fancy points, fun, just a fun game in general, just as a football fan. What were some of your takeaways with the Seahawks and Lions?

Yeah, I did the solo recap on the fantasy podcast on this game. And I was like, I don't know how I'm supposed to not talk about this game for an hour. So many things happened in this game. Yeah. Yeah. Jared Goff, 100% completion rate, 100% catch rate. I wonder if that's ever happened in an NFL game before.

Yeah, that's hard to do. There's usually one little drop. I did see our friend Ben Solak point out from ESPN that ESPN Stats and Info, I think this is the first game in NFL history where two quarterbacks finish or two players finish with 100% completion rate in this game because Amon Ross St. Brown obviously threw the touchdown pass. So, yeah, I mean, this game had a little bit of everything. We can focus on the Lions side, I guess, of this first just overall.

Man, this I think was the best their offense has looked all year. And that makes me kind of question the Seahawks defense a little bit. I think we all knew they weren't number one in the league like they were in success rate allowed coming into this game. That I think was opponent driven. But this was a reminder that when Jared Goff

is on his p's and q's when he's accurate and on time with everything and i think when they are focused mostly on the bread and butter of what makes them great because in my opinion i think that they got a little bit carried away with jameson williams in in the first two games right uh where it's like man we got and i totally get it shiny new toy like we just got this whole new dimension in the offense let's get him going let's

and honestly probably good for them to feed him and get him going. He's a guy that I think needed that confidence to continue to build up in him. He obviously still had a huge play in this game, but he only has two targets. They're focused more on that intermediate area, short area of the field where they have been dominant as a passing game, and obviously all baked off their run game, which continues to be such an electric unit. So this felt the most like the Lions offense I'm familiar with.

Big plays over the middle. Jared Goff feeling comfortable back there. And again, so that was kind of my big Lions takeaway that on offense, more of what I expected. The defense continues to look like...

It was a tough cover for Carlton Davis with DK Metcalf, but they tackled really well. Aiden Hutchinson put pressure on all night. So this is probably the best I felt about the Lions all year. Yeah, I know they gave up points, but it was hard on the Seahawks. Like Gino had to be dialed in to make a lot of those plays happen and DK had to make big plays. So they forced the fumble on him too. That was a great

I don't even know if I can call it a cruiserweight battle. That was like a light heavyweight battle at DK and Carlton Davis all game. Like you don't really get that with receivers and DBs anymore. And that's a lot of fun. Man coverage, physical receiver, totally fun. And they kind of spooked him out of man coverage. You know, Gino's been outstanding against it. He was going into this week first in the league in terms of success rate against man coverage.

And then he went eight for 20 for 93 yards in this game. So they, that worked for him. Uh, uh, them being the Lions defense. I, I thought some, I brought up all the Frank Ragnos stats because I was always, I just thought it was a fun on off stats. And then I totally forgot that the CEO, not even say forgot the Seahawks got decimated with injuries, uh, on the defensive line and, and the linebackers. And, uh,

I was like, oh yeah, well, the Lions are going to figure out a way to poke at this. And they did. It was the perfect Lions game plan, perfect Lions kind of execution, obviously with the completions, but just the run game. That first Jameer Gibbs series where he just burst through the hole in the red zone was like, oh, just so pretty. And seeing him trust going between the tackles now is really great. But I did have some fun Jared Goff stats. Again, Ben Johnson is, he designs things so well. When they...

can get out of a neutral or positive game script. Things can get a little wonky when they have to drop back, but if they can stay neutral, they're as good as anybody. And part of that reason is because they can just go play action and golf's good at it. When I saw him do the little spin move on the first series and complete it, I was like, oh, it's going to be a good

golf game. He's not rattled. So this is going to be a good game, but golf went 12 for 12 on play action, 229 yards, one touchdown, 61.9% of his dropbacks were play action last night, which was tied for the seventh highest rate in the game since 2016. Um,

Tied for the eighth most yards off play action in the game since 2016. Jared Goff also has the record. Back in 2018, that awesome game against the Vikings. Remember when he was with the Rams? It was just a back and forth. He had 326 yards in that game. One EPA per play action drop back.

So they did it 12 times. So each one was worth a point every time they did that. So pretty good day at the office for Goff in that offense. What you say about the Seahawks defense, I didn't think they were the best in the league. I don't think they're going to look like that. I think it's somewhere in the middle, but which is improvement off of last year. And I think this offense is real. They keep adjusting. Geno's playing as well as anybody. Lockett's back.

Jackson Smith and Jig was playing really confident. You know, if they don't get a bogus offensive play pass interference, they're

By the way, the refs with those back-to-back OPI calls, like, chill. You're not a great officiating knight in this one at all. That was rough. I have a lot of tweets and drafts right now. I like my jobs right now. As an NFL League employee, I've been biting my tongue a lot more these days. Smart man. Yes, but it was a fun group of games, I really do think. I also want to mention the first one when seeing Mason Rudolph trot out there.

I was like, the Titans have a type at quarterback, huh? Beefy. Man, they want their quarterbacks benched in 415. I think that's what they're going for there. I thought Vrabel was gone, but apparently not. All right. So that is the Monday night football games. We are going to take a quick break and then we come back with the NFC division leader breakdowns. See you guys in a sec.

Bombas makes the most comfortable socks, underwear, and t-shirts. Warning, Bombas are so absurdly comfortable you may throw out all your other clothes. Sorry, do we legally have to say that? No, this is just how I talk and I really love my Bombas. They do feel that good. And they do good, too. One item purchased equals one item donated. To feel good and do good, go to bombas.com slash wondry and use code wondry for 20% off your first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com slash wondry and use code wondry at checkout.

Forget one-size-fits-all diets. With Noom, you get a personalized weight loss plan that's tailored to your lifestyle. Have cravings? Food FOMO? Noom can help you lose weight while still enjoying your favorite foods. Noom's users love the flexible approach, blending psychology and biology to help you lose weight in a way that's sustainable for you. Plus, you can rest assured Noom's approach is grounded in science. They've published more than 30 peer-reviewed scientific articles describing their methods and effectiveness.

Stay focused on what's important to you with Noom's psychology and biology-based approach. Sign up for your trial today at Noom.com. All right, we are back with the NFC division leaders.

We are going to first start with the NFC North, with the Vikings, but what we're going to do for each of these teams, Matt and I are going to just break down what's been most impressive, what's standing out and the good ways for these teams. Maybe what's on the other end, the least impressive things, things we're worried about, concerns, if there are any, some have more than others. And then what's our confidence with each team, one through 10, that they will win the

the division, which I think is important for a couple of these teams as well. But again, like I said, we're going to start with the NFC North, the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings leading the way in the North, the former NFC Central. Very good division. But Matt, when you watch this Vikings team after they just beat the Packers, what is standing out to you in a positive way? What's impressive with the Minnesota Vikings?

I mean, brother, take your pick. They're extremely well coached on both sides of the ball. I think if I was to give a blanket statement, that would be it. Because number one, defense...

We've talked about it a lot. Everybody's talked about it. Brian Flores last year was a I'm going to put bad quarterbacks in the blender because of this kind of amoeba style of defense that I do. And then this year they've just kicked it up a notch and especially from a pressure perspective. That's been key to me the last two games.

It's one thing if you can muck things up from a coverage perspective, but you can do that and also put two quarterbacks, admittedly one coming off of a multi-week absence injury-wise, Jordan Love. Put two quarterbacks back-to-back, CJ Stroud, Jordan Love. You pressure the hell out of them.

you know, and I mean, Brock Purdy is playing great football right now. I'll throw him into the mix too, but that was almost, I think more of a coverage perspective for the last two guys. It's just been, they've heated them up in very unique ways on that defensive side of the football. And then on offense,

I just give Darnold so many answers. You know, the fact that he completed eight passes, like all to eight different receivers to start the game, super impressive. You know, they have Justin Jefferson, so they have these very, I would say, crispy route answers for a guy like Jalen Naylor to be that second, third reaction player. That gives Darnold confidence. That keeps him settled. We've talked about the run game, too, as well on this show. So, honestly, it's just, to me, a

they're so well coached on both sides of the ball. And really that's why it's just kind of like, take your pick. So many things are impressive about this team right now. No. Yeah. It's a, it's a,

total team effort right now. They have had some good game scripts because they jump out the teams or jump on teams. They create turnovers. They create big plays on defense, which is huge. And then they're holding up down to down. Not I think the Packers showed like a decent game plan against them. But again, that's easier said than done. Have a good offensive line that could pick up all the pick up all the blitzes and pick up all the funky looks, the five man looks, and then have a quarterback that's willing to sit in there and chuck it.

And Love's willing to do that. Like the first pick he threw was him trying to beat this defense. And that's how tough the Vikings make it. Like they just clamp down on it.

how many quarterbacks in the league are willing to do that? I'm six, seven, eight, you know? So how many in the NFC are willing to do that? Two, three. So that's already your, you have an advantage. I think just even mentally and game plan wise, just because of your style. I thought the Packers did have answers, but that's like, that's the best I've seen any team too. And it's still ended up like this game. Um,

Yeah, you mentioned the offensive attack. I've talked plenty about the run game. The red zone designs have been great. Just seeing the layers O'Connell keeps adding and all right, Justin Jefferson is going to get this coverage. He's going to get a lot of cover too. He's going to get a lot of brackets.

So it's kind of cool watching O'Connell each week go like, all right, how am I getting Justin open? And one play, it was like a big over route to Justin. I'm saying Justin like I know him. Like Justin Jefferson off a play action play. And it was really cool to watch the whole mechanics of the play. Darn old motions of across, Jefferson across, all the man coverage indicators in the world. It's cover one, just screaming cover one. And they look like they have

checks into man. Back in the day when my dad was with the Vikings, if they got certain blitz looks, they literally had one word calls to tell everybody, hey, we're basically checking up the moss, block it up and we're throwing it deep because you only got two or three of those looks a game. And I'm seeing the Vikings now, you know, some of the game script helps is that they're getting all these checks where it's like, oh, he's in the slot man coverage against, right?

We don't know what the corner's name is. That's good. So it's checking to him, runs an over out to 20 yard game. Boom. It was like easy. I mean, it's a good throw and everything, but that's the type of stuff they're adding and happens in the red zone using it's single high safeties over to Justin Jefferson side as it runs the double move wide open, wide open touchdown. And that's, that's what they do. They're making it easy. Uh, Darnold's playing well, but it's like the baseline for this offense is gonna make everyone look decent. Um,

I will say, though, he is scrambling pretty well. He's making a couple of big time throws. The strip sack was not his fault. He should maybe get a little quicker. I will say everyone's saying, well, the bottom might drop out on Darnold. He already has a turnover every game, like a brutal one. So.

What if he doesn't? How's this offense look like? What if he does have a game where he doesn't have a turnover? Like that's that's I want to hedge against the people that are hedging against this. Like, I think this is more real because the run game's real. The designs are real. Now they have multiple pass catchers that are good. The interior offense lines, meh.

But again, they mitigate it and they know how to kind of shore up the weaknesses. So I don't know. This offense feels a lot more real every week that I watch it. Points help. I mean, that was that was going to be my only concern was just like the theoretical Darnold trapdoor. You know, like, when is he going to fall through that and just become the Sam Darnold that we used to know? And I but I.

With each passing week, I'm losing faith that that's even going to happen. My faith is being restored in that not happening because not just of how the offense is designed and all these great players around him, but it is just the confidence that he's playing within himself in the system right now. He's definitely every now and again trying to do a Sam Darnold moment, but that

that's like maybe two times a game as opposed to five times a game, six times a game or something like that. Yeah. Once a series. So yeah, I mean, man, Justin Jefferson, great football player, obviously, but I would say Kevin O'Connell now is at the peak of coaches of like giving you teach tape of how to scheme open your number one receiver. Whereas like,

Like, you know, no disrespect to like what the Giants are doing with like Malik neighbors, but I've been saying like they don't run an offense right now. They run like a Malik neighbors fantasy usage scam. And I know you and I are talking about an offense where you're trying to win him the Heisman or not the MVP, I should say. You and I'll talk rookies tomorrow. So we can kind of expand on what I mean by that on my show tomorrow. But like this is like we're scheming opportunities to get our guy like big plays down the field. And he is so good that we should do that. So, yeah, just.

this team's great. I mean, for confidence level, I don't know where you're at to where they'll win the division, but it's tough because Packers are good. I think the Lions are good. It's nothing against them. It's the division that's really good. So I'm like, I would say they have a 4-0 like head start. I'd say I'm probably at like a 7 that they'll probably win. I'm at a 6 and it's nothing against them. It's just that

three of the four best teams in the nfc are in the nfc north like these three the packers vikings lions and the 49ers and then the bears who are the fourth team have a top five defense and offense that's starting to kind of slowly put it together so it's not like they're like oh yeah just a run like you know wave away team so that's the only reason but i am confident in this team i i i mean shoot they they just are looking good and sound and uh yeah the darn old

negative plays haven't bit him yet. There's been a couple, but yeah, they've kept it away from him so far. Just make sure that he hasn't done too much damage to him. But I mean, he's willing to chuck it. I think

I usually use the term Shanahan guys, but now it's McVay guys that I'm starting to kind of like more right now, which is actually the literal Sean McVay. But Kevin O'Connell and then now the or the floor I'll call. I'll call a shame. I know he's Shanahan and McVay. He got one stopping with the Titans as well. Yeah, it's so. Yeah, he's kind of his own.

The Packers are their own thing in this tree. But why I want to bring up all those offenses is they're all trying to throw dig routes. They're all trying to throw dagger concepts, which is a seam and a big dig behind it. They're all trying to throw big overs. They have three quarterbacks that are willing to stand there and chuck it. But that's what you have to do right now.

And these are three of my favorite offenses to watch, the Rams, the Packers, and the Vikings, because they're the offenses right now that are doing the things to beat modern defenses right now. Pound the freaking rock and stand there and chuck it. So I'm really liking these two teams that played on Sunday, even if the Packers lost, because they did some cool things too. And I think Love is probably my favorite quarterback. One of my favorite quarterbacks to watch right now. There's a guy in Houston that I'm really enjoying. All right, moving down south.

To the former fifth team of the NFC Central, that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the NFC South, who are leading the pack at 3-1. When you watch this Bucs team, Matt, what are some of your takeaways in the positive way?

Yeah, I would say the thing that impresses me the most is the receiver usage for this team. This is a team after my heart where it's we got two dudes. We got Mike Evans. We have Chris Godwin and we do things that they work in concert off of each other. I really like Dave Canales's offense last year. If I had one kind of criticism of it is that.

We did a lot in Tampa last year to make sure that the Mike Evans-Baker-Mayfield connection was right on point. It was on point. Mike Evans ran more out routes last year than at any point in his career. His go route rate was cut back. He ran a bunch of slants and outs so that, okay...

Hit the top by drop. He's on a slant. Boom. He's right there in my vision if we've got pressure. And for the most part, though, if I'm Baker, I'm trying to hit the back of my drop and push that thing to Mike Evans on outbreaking routes. Now they're using Evans, I think, on more in-breaking routes to free up Chris Godwin as that outbreaking route player. And a lot of that is because obviously they've moved Godwin into the slot. They're trying to get him some more layup reps, too. So I think the way those two receivers work in concert off each other is, one, great for the two players and

they're probably their two best. I mean, they're definitely their two best skill position players. They're probably in their top five overall players on the roster. And, you know, beyond that, it's also really good for the quarterback specifically. So the way those two guys operate, how it brings out the best of Baker, who like, yeah, he's going to have games like week three against the Broncos where I wouldn't say that was totally. I think Broncos defense is pretty good. Number one, a success rate. I don't think that.

The NFL world has, and certainly when people are talking fantasy matchups, things like that, I don't think we've calibrated enough that that's not just a, oh, Pastor Tan's going to shut down your top receiver. It's just a tough defense to play against in general. But then he's also going to have games against the Eagles where I thought that was a great Baker game. And a lot of that comes down to the ways they make him comfortable, which a lot of that is the receiver usage here.

That's, yeah, a much better way to put it than I was going to. I said small improvements on offense. And I think that's a much better way to kind of articulate a specific point. One thing with Baker, Baker is an old school air raid quarterback, meaning he likes to be in the gun. He likes to just chuck it and see everything. Those out routes, that is such a funny stat to bring up because I

One thing I remember from Baker at Oklahoma was they would run mesh, which is two crossing routes over the middle of the field. And on the outside, they would have just an out route. I think it was Sterling Shepard.

Field out routes. Field out route. Sterling Shepard, 51 yards in this last game. I love Sterling Shepard as a prospect, so that got my heart beating a little more than it should have. I thought he would make it. I thought he would really stick. I just thought he was crafty. Injury sucks, bro. I know. Just a good... I know. Fun receiver to study, but they're

They just run all these out routes and it's a advantage read on that concept where it's just like, Hey, I like my one-on-one. I'm going to throw it. Baker's always been good at him. Like he just, he would never, never throw over the middle of the field. He'd say, screw reading that out. I'm just going to take shepherd on the outside one-on-one. And then I fast forward, whatever this is, eight years later, seven years later. And I'm like, Oh,

Last year, there it was, but I watched it again. He hit Evans on another out round in this game, and that was against the Eagles. I'm like, oh, there it is again. You are comfortable with them. They're going to be lower on success rate. I think the run game is...

but they're going to be still average. Like at best there, the run games isn't amazing, but it's good enough. Showed some life against the Eagles, which I think a lot of people will. Um, but last year they were historically bad this year. They're like below average on running backgrounds, big improvement. Uh, there,

They're explosive, which is what you think. They're sixth in explosive play rate, lower on success rate, and that adds up. When you watch this team, that's how they feel. They can get some big plays. They can stall because the run game's meh. And sometimes, you know, Baker can get a little low, you know, or I should say high because he misses high. But I think that overall, this is kind of the team that I expected. And the defense is still funky. You can still do some good things, especially when Vita Vey is out there and make the run game hard. Do have some negatives on that side. But do you...

What, what, what, when you're watching this box team, what's least impressive? Any concerns that you have when you're watching them? I have a couple.

Yeah, I think the defense is a little concerning, especially in the secondary. Yeah. The linebackers. Oh, yeah. It's... Secondary, like middle of the field coverage, linebackers included, that's kind of the biggest concern for me. And I don't think they necessarily... They have pretty decent play up front from a pass rush perspective, but I don't think they have enough juice to just completely negate that. Now, Todd Bowles is such a good defensive coordinator that he's going to put in some game plans to really...

Not Bo Nix, which was surprising, but there's going to be some times where he pitches a heater. We know because whenever the Eagles come to town or they go to Philadelphia, you're going to pitch a heater against Jalen Hurts. Lock of the week. Yeah, lock of the week, baby. I mean, even Jaden Daniels, and we'll talk about the commanders here later on,

That was a great game plan, I think, week one against the rookie quarterback that really we didn't have any NFL film on. So there's going to be games like that in the bag here for Todd Bowles. But against some of the top teams in the conference, I certainly could see them getting got there. Yeah, that's kind of how I feel. I think there's gaps on the defense. Their guard plays is still a little iffy.

But they're doing a good job of mitigating it. Yeah, I'm liking what the coordinator is doing, what Cone's doing, because he's moving the pocket a lot, even on straight, like where when Baker drift a little. And that just doesn't let guys tee off, doesn't let defenses just go, oh, I aim at this guy right here. I aim at this point. If I beat my tackle, I get the sack. You know, getting get a key back helps. But I thought that was some good game planning there. But you just want to avoid Baker. You never want to see Baker backpedaling.

No. Like where he starts doing the Madden drop, that's when you know things are going bad. So if you see Baker in the pocket just going left and right, good. When he's channeling his inner Kyler Murray, that's when we're going to a bad place. Yeah. When he starts...

Yeah, I always said Baker was like Russell Wilson without the athleticism. And so like when you see the backer and stuff, that's why I know I'm getting a little scared. I I'm enjoying watching Baker right now. I yeah, it's it's a fun offense. It's not it's going to be frustrating at times, but they'll have big plays. You know, it helps when you have cool receivers. What's your confidence level with them to win the division?

I said like an eight. I said an eight as well. And both of us picked them to win the division. So this could just be some confirmation bias, but I still see people kind of hanging on to like the Falcons. And I think they'll get better throughout the course of the year. Like I bet that I would be shocked if the December Falcons are not a significantly better team than the early season Falcons.

And the Saints obviously had a great start with their offense, but I do think the Bucs are just a little more stable across the board. It feels like a bunch of 8-9 to 10-7 teams, like those three. And yeah, it's just, I put it as an 8 because I feel the best about the Bucs, but it's not like I feel great overall. And I feel, and then the Saints, if they just don't have any injuries, I'm glad you brought the Falcons as well. I can't, Greg,

grasp how I feel about the Falcons. Like I like some of it and then some of it's making me a little worried and I'm sure we'll talk about it soon, but that is maybe not this show, but a different show. But, but I just, yeah, that one is, I can't really tie a bow on my thoughts on them. That's why we have

13 more games to get through. All right, moving on to the NFC West. We already kind of talked about this team a little bit. That is the Seahawks who are actually the leading the NFC West still after that loss, not the 49ers, but who or what has been the most impressive thing with the Seahawks team real quick? Yeah. So weirdly, actually the thing that is impressive and my biggest concern are kind of the same thing, you know, in a weird way in that I think their offense has been the most impressive thing about the team. And, you know,

In a weird way, that's also my biggest concern is that I think it needs to continue to be the best part about this team because the defense, I think, is a little bit... Maybe I'm just spooked from Monday night, but I'm a little bit like, is the defense on fraud watch? I don't think that's the case, but you mentioned they have some injuries. There are some clear-cut holes, and I think they'll probably end up being somewhere between 14th and 18th best defense in the league.

somewhere around there, which is totally fine. But, you know, I just only one thing that's kind of got me spooked about the offense part of this is just pass protection for them, because I thought the Lions and especially Aiden Hutchinson were able to tee off in this game a lot. And, you know, next in stats noted that Kenneth Walker was a lot more efficient on under center runs.

in this game. I believe he was 55 yards on six carries, 9.2 yards per carry compared to 4.2 yards per carry when they were in the gun. Okay. Anything about Kenneth Walker's run style, that makes sense, right? He's a little bit of Derrick Henry where I've been talking about that on my show where like they've got Derrick Henry and Lamar in the pistol now, which allows them to split the difference between the two styles of running there between Lamar and Henry. But Walker's kind of that, yeah, let me hit the hole, you know, with

unbelievable explosion. Full speed. So he makes sense as an under center runner. Geno, meanwhile, has the second lowest net yards per attempt among quarterbacks to play four games going under center. And that kind of makes sense, right? Because he's got to do these deep drops from under center. Well, there's Aiden Hutchinson right in his face. You know what I'm saying? So just that

kind of them figuring that part out and problem solving that I would say is the one area I'd have concern on only because I think this offense needs to be so good for this team to keep afloat here. Yeah, it's a fantastic point. I said the most impressive thing so far has been Gino. It's been Gino and the game plan adjustments on both sides. I would say that this team's been really impressive in the second half. I haven't updated the stat, but they would they're kind of like middling to top five basically on offensive defense in the second half.

Saw a little bit of that last night, especially on offense. Defense stepped up a couple times, but then kind of when the offense didn't score on that fourth down, when they had to punt last, you can kind of see them get deflated a little bit. Hard to go against the Lions.

for a lot of drives. They just wear on you. It's like you can stop them once or twice, but they just kind of wear on you. Yeah, the defense injuries don't help. I'm hoping Leonard Williams, Murphy, all those guys come back and other guys in the front seven too. And I will say the pass rush is a little more live than maybe I was expecting, which I say is good, especially if they get some positive game scripts. The interior offensive line, I think, is just always in the right tackle. It's going to be a

question mark going forward. Williams has been pretty good at center. I think I saw Haynes in there last night at guard. I want to watch how he did, but you know, stone foresight, this is just going to be up and down. That's how it goes. I kind of,

at a four out of 10 confidence level, just because they have the 49ers. Yeah. And I think this is a playoff team though. I still, they were my preseason playoff team might be able to hold on, but they haven't dissuaded me from off that take, but I don't think they just don't have the horses yet to truly be like that. Take over, take the 49ers. But I think this is a pretty solid team right now.

My confidence level that they're the second best team in the division is probably like 10 out of 10 because I think they're significantly better than the Rams and the Cardinals right now. 49ers, man. I mean, it's just like Brock Purdy's playing great football. Nobody seems to want to talk about it. None of the smart people on Twitter seem to want to talk about it. Every broadcaster certainly wants to talk about it. Greg Olson was talking about it because that's the dichotomy of

of the pretty like fan bases, but pretty is playing great. And he's being asked to make high degree of difficulty throws. And, uh, like he's second in air yards per pass attempt right now. Uh, he's throwing into tight windows. The second most, uh, among all quarterbacks, uh,

So like he's he's making some high degree of difficulty throws being asked, I think, to carry a little bit more. And like his full cast of characters is not totally assimilated in yet. So that just makes me think like, yeah, four, because the 49ers will get rolling at some point. They'll probably be the better team. Yeah, it's not the 49ers offense I'm worried about. It's just the defense. And I think the Patriots was a nice get right game for them to kind of see the strength of them. Fred Warner is playing my defense play of the year candidate. I actually gave the off ball line or off ball player.

non-defense alignment or edge player, winning defensive player of the year. Didn't really double down on a take, just kind of set it offhand, and it's actually lining up. The stars are aligning for a Fred Warner or Patrick Sertan type of defensive player of the year. At least through four weeks. I might write about it a little bit this week. Also,

I know you don't care, but I actually kind of probably care a little bit. Got a new QB one for the next year's class. Pretty, pretty excited about it. All right. Well, Garrett Nussmeier from LSU. Yeah. His dad's QB coach. Know nothing about him. His dad's QB coach for the Eagles. Great guy. But yeah, no, he's pretty fun. But anyways, moving on. So we're about that four attempt Seahawks. I still like them. They're doing a good job. They're well coached.

Just a couple holes. Give me a little word. Geno rocks, though. Passing game rocks. All right, moving on to the NFC East. Probably the most surprising.

i would say uh your favorite team yeah bro talked a lot about them i did not have them that to be the number one pick last year i had the giants so i am safe from that there you go but this commander's team with their very fun offense that we are i'm sure both have plenty of stats on but this commander's team this commander's offense what's been impressive about them as they've stormed out to a three and one lead this year

Yeah, I would say to encapsulate the offensive performance, I would just say how comfortable they've made Jaden Daniels is the thing that's most impressive to me. That's including the offensive line where you see them walk into the season with the line that they walked into. I remember thinking,

Yeah, I mean, if this third round rookie, Brandon Coleman, is good, like maybe the offensive line could end up being a passable unit. And then this third round rookie, Brandon Coleman, actually looks pretty good. So, yeah, he's played pretty well so far. Now, admittedly, I think caveats need to be said to just atrocious defensive matchups in the last two weeks. The Cardinals...

not moving the needle for me. The Bengals might be the worst defense in the league. So that is those caveats have to be said that that kind of put aside. I think the way that Cliff called plays in week one was definitely like, oh God, here we go again. Horizontal raid. But, you know, trying to make him more comfortable against Todd Bowles, which is a really difficult matchup for this style of quarterback, as I mentioned earlier. And then since then, they've put in more

like high, low concepts where, okay, Jane Daniels, if he wants to push this thing down the field to Terry McLaurin, that's going to be the first read on his play. And then if he's not comfortable with it, there are guys there in that lower area that he can, he can take it to. But like the fact that those reads are in there and that that's the, it's less just designed, get the ball underneath. That's what allows Jane to do what he does best, which is be,

super accurate as a downfield passer. So just how comfortable they've made him has definitely been the most impressive thing to me so far. And it really has. I mean, even the opening drive against the Cardinals, I thought was really impressive. Just play calling,

I guess would be a good way to put it. Um, past, past game, like they had a third down conversion, uh, that Jane just put it on the money, but the guy popped wide open on it. And then just the run game, like the run game has been impressive. Brian Robinson. I didn't realize how fricking fast Brian Robinson is. He's bringing 20 miles an hour.

Brian Robinson's a beast, man. He is a beast. As somebody that drafted him in the third round of a Dynasty League a couple years ago, I am a big Brian Robinson fan. You're loving where you're at. Oh, he looks great. And the run game, it's varied. They run everything. And it was really cool that first drive. It finished with four runs. I think it was like an eight-play drive, nine-play drive. But it finished with four runs. They went...

All no huddle. They went four different formations on the final four plays, four different run concepts. None of them were the same. One of them was a wildcat run to Brian Robinson, all out of no huddle. So that's really, I'm always fascinated because I am a very traditional huddle guy, play call guy, just my upbringing, Paul Chris, my dad, North Turner, those guys. But so I always get fascinated by these no huddle guys and air raid guys and how they can communicate that.

I verbiage and lexicon like that fascinates me. So the fact that they're able to get to so many formations, including wildcat all out of no huddle with a rookie quarterback that, you know, cool. Like I, I have plenty of qualms with cliff Kingsbury. There's still some issues I have with the offense, but the baseline is way higher than I gave a credit for because there's more soundness to this. I mean, the office line is playing great. They're using the tempo smartly. Like they're intelligently, as I say, smartly, uh,

But I just there's a lot more real to it. I'm not saying like right now they're they're like historically tops, top marks and EPA and all success rate and everything. She'll Kapadia from the ringer who has to work with athletic had a great set commanders or have the second most efficient offense based on EPA per drive through the first four weeks of the season since 2000.

So it's 2007 Patriots, all-time offense, the Commanders of 2024, the 2004 Colts, which was Manning's, I think, first MVP year, but his best statistical year until he got to the Broncos. Then the 2004 Vikings, which is a team after my own heart with Dante Culpepper and Randy Moss. And Daniels has been a machine. He's very accurate, scrambling a lot.

Which I'll say as a negative, I'll say as a neutral point right now, because he's very efficient right now. He's not taking a lot of big hits. He took one, I want to say week two or week three, I'm blanking on it, but he did get knocked out of the game for one play. And then he came right back. But he's been avoiding the hits. He's sliding, but he's scrambling at the highest rate in practice.

on record through the first four weeks at 18.4 of his drop extra scrambles so one out of five uh most ever on record according to next gen stats but the whole line in general is playing well they're they have a pretty like decent pressure rate allowed they are playing smart like i say so i think the baseline's higher do i think they're going to be a top five offense i don't know but i think they're definitely going to be in the better half with a rookie quarterback that is that's

Like tip of the cap as other offense just struggle everywhere, just even moving the ball. So, yeah, I don't know if I mean full crow, but I mean a little bit of crow of that. Like this is looks a little more cohesive. I do want to see it, though, on a negative against some better defenses, because some of this is smoke and mirrors. I will say there are some guys unblocked and guys are making great plays. But again, that's talking about both sides of my mouth. That's setting them up to succeed. But also like, hey, if they clean that up. Wow.

Like that actually might be even better. So that would say it was my kind of like my other side of this is maybe, you know, throw it a little bit more Jaden and maybe just maybe some little cleanup on some of the stuff, but yeah,

That offense is looking good. Do you have any other negatives on the offense or is it just the defense being very not good as well? I was avoiding all the defensive talk. I don't think we've said defense yet. And there's a reason for that, right? I mean, they're 31st and drop back success rate allowed. They've allowed the second highest yards per carry so far. So just got to and I don't

know that they're going to clean that up. I would love to say, yeah, just got to clean that up. That's not going to, I don't think that's going to happen in year one. Yeah, it's a, it's a personnel thing. They do it. I mean, to give them credit on defense, they'll do some interesting stuff with some of these players. It's just,

I think they've just got a long way to go to get that side of the ball competent. I think they're going to be, I think there'll be okay against a run because of their defensive tackles. Like they have Frankie Lou vu doing a bunch off ball or come on the ball, I should say, but it's the, I don't think the past defense is going to get fixed at all this year. They have like way too many holes. So a lot of shootouts, I think for the commanders coming their way. And yeah. What's your confidence level with them to win this division? Yeah.

I came like a five. I also gave them a five. Yes. Which I know commander stands for sure. Like what the hell, but that's, I would have had 0.0 going into the year. So this is a pretty big movement for me. And a lot of it is not just that I got, yeah, I'm concerned about the defense. It's definitely the biggest concern, but, and you got two good offenses theoretically in the division with Dallas and Philadelphia, although neither of them have really played to the height of their powers respectively just yet.

But I honestly like with the current version of the Cowboys offense and the current version of the Eagles offense, they'll look better once AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are healthy. I get that. But like those two units, I do think Washington could hang in a shootout with them, especially because those defenses have issues right now. Like you're telling me that Dallas, like you're feeling great about going in there and defending the run against this monster in the backfield and Brian Robinson and Eckler looks, he's, he missed last week's game. Somehow Jeremy McNichols then has like the 10th year running back breakout with, with Austin out of there. So it's,

They've got some horses there to run over Dallas. I think they can throw the ball against Philadelphia. So I'll give them like a five. And honestly, like a few more weeks, I might move to a seven or something like that. I honestly just this next two weeks, they go Browns and the Ravens. Browns defense is more above average, but they have a pass rush.

And then the Ravens defense is very good. So after those two weeks, I'll reassess it. But I do think a lot, this offense is a lot more real, even if it's not all the way clean. And I think Daniels is just making a lot of good decisions. That's why I compared him to Teddy Bridgewater. All those commanders fans that got mad at me. It's because he makes a lot of good decisions. That's compliment. He's accurate, makes good decisions. That's like, come on guys.

Uh, they haven't had a lot to be happy about. They've got a lot. He was like, Hey man, we haven't been happy in a while. And so we're, I think we're just getting a little guarded right now. If anyone has any negative, even though I was saying nice things, uh, Daniels is just so fast, man. Like he, I knew he was fast, but why I, you have to see it in the NFL sometimes and just watch him blow by some of those Cardinals defense alignment on bootlegs and stuff. It's pretty impressive to watch him run on. All right.

We are going to take our last break and then we are going to go to the sister conference, the AFC and the four division leaders there.

During congestion, customers on this plan may notice speeds lower than other customers and further reduction if using greater than 1.2 terabytes per month due to data prioritization. After $20 bill credit plus $5 per month without auto pay, debit or bank account required. Regulatory fees included for qualifying accounts. $35 connection charge applies.

You know that feeling when your favorite brand really gets you? Deliver that feeling to your customers, every time. Memorable moments like these are key to building your business and your brand. Klaviyo turns your customer data into real-time connections across AI-powered email, SMS, and more, making every moment count. So you can continue to build smarter, more meaningful relationships with your customers. Build smarter digital relationships with your customers. And make every moment count with Klaviyo.

Learn more at klaviyo.com slash BFCM. All right, the AFC. AFC North. Let's go there. We're going with the Steelers. We've talked about it a little bit. One of the more interesting teams in this league. This league. The NFL. When you watch the Steelers, Matt, what has been impressive to you as they got out to a 3-1 start?

Great question because I think it's easy to say the defense. It's a great unit. I said one of the few spicy takes I don't regret after our week one show. Definitely regret saying that Dan Quinn was going to be one and done, and now I'm like five out of ten they win the division. So regret that one. Do not regret saying the Steelers could have the best defense in the NFL. But I would actually say the most impressive thing to me

It's actually been George Pickens so far this year. I think Pickens has. And you and I have had conversations about Pickens in the past and kind of being a little bit more hesitant to buy fully into the player. I think that he is playing the best football that I've seen him play in the NFL right now. And it's not even close. I think he looks...

like the route runner and separator that he was in college as opposed to kind of the first two years of his career. He's a player I've always said you can't really have a normal conversation about because he you either think he's like DJ Chark or you think he's secretly an elite receiver and everybody's too dumb to know it. He's a lot closer to the latter than he is to the former right now. I think his separation against man coverage is I mean, I charted

weeks. So the Sertan game and the first game of the season, and he was up there like over 80% in reception, perception, success rate versus man and press. And he's always been a better press man beater than his own beater just because he's sometimes I think needs to play with more urgency to put it nicely. He knows what to do against man. He knows what to do against man. And then sometimes against zone, I'm like, okay, pick up the pace here. We got to run this thing out.

This year, I think he is playing like with his hair on fire. He looks fully dialed in, fully bought in. You could tell he likes playing with Justin Fields and Arthur Smith, our guy, Arthur Smith. Hey, Kyle Pitts can't do in a Falcons uniform. And and I'll cheer out Rand Bijan. Oh, my God. And meanwhile, Justin Fields kind of having a revival here in Pittsburgh. So maybe Arthur Smith did nothing wrong. I'm being a little facetious there. But our guy, Arthur Smith, Nate.

I really has is using these two players fields and pickings to exactly kind of how they should be both independent of each other. And also together, they're bringing out the best of each other at this point. Absolutely agree. They the drop back passing game isn't crazy. A lot of quick game. But you see fields getting confident with it. And part of that is they ISO up pickings a lot. And he has confidence in pickings. He's like, all right, I'm going to take my one on one here.

And Pickens is good on those vertical routes. He can adjust. Yeah. And of course, he can do the dunk stuff, but he can just do the back shoulder things. And I think him and Fields just have a rapport there. And we've talked about enough with the defense and their top eight and all the main metrics I look at, DVOA, EPA, and success rate, and their top eight. Are they number one? But I still think this is a good defense that's hard to play against. But offensively, Fields looks confident.

And they still have mistakes. Like again, they had a botch on the first snap of the game. The second time this year, this has happened. But they cleaned it up pretty much like their penalties have gone down each week. They, you know, until the fourth quarter, Zach Frazier snapped one early. They didn't have a lot of operation mistakes, which was kind of hindering some of their offensive stuff the first couple of weeks.

I think Zach Frazier is a star at center. I think he might be a pro bowler as a rookie. And he is really calming fields and calming all the offensive line changes that they've gone through. Broderick Jones is up and down, but you can tell he just needs to calm down. And Zach Frazier really does that. I think for a lot of this offense, it's been cool to watch a rookie do that for some other guys because fields, Wes is on fields now. And you can see him just

There's an old coach saying, if you make a mistake, make it fast. And he at least is like, he's doing everything fast, but it's not frantic. And that was always in Chicago. He felt frantic, limbs going everywhere, head going everywhere. And now it's like, when he's like, all right, that guy's not open. You could see the wheels turn and go.

I should start scrambling. Like, as opposed to like bounce around, jump around the pocket. Oh, like in doing, Oh, should I throw this? Should I check it down? Uh, I felt like he always took coaching almost too literally as opposed to just playing. And it feels like he's playing again. The, the bootlegs are really fun with him. Um,

He's going to always be a frustrating quarterback at times, I think, dropping back. But he's throwing with confidence, and that's quickening, speeding everything up. And I think it's making just everything more cohesive. It's been fun to watch that that aspect of the Steelers offense has been almost more positive than the run game, which is what I was excited about. I'll say the negatives is, for me...

Najee Harris kind of doesn't look good and they give him a lot of touches and that's a big problem if you're giving him a lot of touches and that's the baseline of the offense. Jalen Warren being hurt is a

is an issue. He was hurt in the off season. He was, he's been hurt in the season. Yeah. My concern was what happened to the run game? I mean, they've had offensive line injuries too, but yeah, a lot of, a lot of issues so far on the run. We can't be like, Ooh, Cordero Patterson looks, looks spite. Like we can't be doing, we can't be. And then he got hurt in this last game too. So by the way, I checked Cordero Patterson still listed at six, two, two 20. I don't think so. No, he's been at six, two, two 20 for like 10 years now.

I don't think so. He is. He looks bigger than that. He still looks huge explosive, but he looks huge. He was two 30 when we were with him in Oakland. That was, so that was 2017 a long time ago. So seven years ago, and that was when he was a receiver. So he was even running a little bit more. Uh, yeah, that yeah. Injuries that old line, there's still some sloppiness in the offense. I mentioned that, but I, again, they're, they're kind of cleaning it up. Like this is the thing. This is fields in a nutshell. Um,

There's a whole bunch of good things on the drive. And then he gets pressured on a third down and they're about like 30 ish yard line, 35. And he takes like a 15 yard sack because he tries to spiral out of it and then knocks him out of field goal range.

earlier in the game, he got pressured a couple times. He stepped up, out, and threw the ball. He wasn't looking to run. And so it's like, he still has a couple of lows. It's like Darnold, like in a sense, totally different types of players, but you just knock out a couple of those plays and play with confidence. And one or two a game, you can live with that. If it happens every series, you can't. And right now with Fields, it's like one a quarter. So it's like it's

All right. We're tweaking it down. We're tweaking it down. It's getting better. And he's so explosive. So also the receivers look really poorly coached. I want to say that too. I've seen some of these receivers at other spots and I've seen Calvin Austin before. And also now they're botching all the time. Yeah. So I'm keeping an eye on that. All right. What's your confidence with the Steelers team in the AFC North?

Now you've got me looking at who's the Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver. I know who he is. I just don't want to say his name. Zach Zani. Yeah. He was with the Broncos before. Yeah. I keep my eye on receiver coaches. Yeah. The Chargers got a rough one, too. Oh, I know. That one I know off the top of my head, which is not a good thing. I keep my eye on these guys. Honestly, I would say another five here just because I think it's like 50. Well, I think it's like 50-50 that it's either them or the Ravens. Yep.

Yeah, that's where I'm at. It's just them and the Ravens. It's not all pretty, but they're doing some nice things in Pittsburgh right now. All right. Another team that's doing some decent things. And they're the preseason favorites, at least for their division. The AFC South, we have the Houston Texans, 3-1.

as they just beat the Jags, who are not 3-1. They're very bad right now. As we look at the... God. Are you going to talk about Trevor and the Jags? No. No, I'm done. I'm done. No, we're not talking about the team. Ben's had a great takedown. I'll mention Ben again. Had a great takedown. I saw parts of it. I haven't read the whole thing, but I did see the Jags parts. For me, it's like,

It's not even just coaching or Trevor Lawrence's play. It was personnel in the first place. And so it's like, it's just everything with this team. But anyways, a team that is clicking on some aspects, that is Texans. What's been most impressive about them? Is it their awesome quarterback? Or their awesome number one wide receiver? I mean, I would say Nico, MF, and Collins is the most impressive thing about this team. MNC just dropped. He might be an offensive player of the year. Yeah. I mean, the connection between...

Stroud and Nico is probably the most impressive thing about this team. And I was posted about this yesterday during Monday Night Football. Someone had posted the old like Nico Collins next gen route charts. And it's a bunch of the like dumbest little curls and comebacks that you've ever seen. And then now this year, it's just these big fat over routes that we've talked about with Nico Collins before. He's just like

he's just like a perfect receiver, perfect X receiver for today's NFL, especially when we're, you know, as this conversation you and I have had a lot about beat cover to drop back like a big boy, put your big boy pants on and push it over the middle of the field. And like nobody is better to push it over the middle of the field to right now than Nico Collins, like this side of Justin Jefferson. So yeah, he's playing like a top five receiver in the NFL. He was doing that on film last year. He's even better this year. So I would say that,

their connection, Stroud and Nico is for sure

is for sure and the digs edition i think has worked too but just in terms of the most impressive thing those two guys are are i'm not gonna say carrying the team right now but i'll talk about some of my concerns with them um they're also the most penalized team in the league like i'm not saying that stroud and neek are completely carrying the team but i'm also not not saying it too it's not the whole line uh i can tell you that uh yeah it's stroud collins that's it stroud

I said it with love or it's always my favorite to watch right now, but it's, it's probably Stroud love and Josh Allen right now. Where, but Stroud, just his decision-making the, his timing in his head, it's even better than last year, which should be expected. It's only his second year. He's so young, but yeah,

They do such a good job. I have some qualms with Bobby Silek, but they do such a good job of... Nico is always running the high routes. If they run a high-low, he is the primary running the dig, the in-breaker, the glance. And again, small things, but it matters when you have a dude like this. And I'm glad you said top five, because I was going to ask you. I know before the season, we're like, hey, he's more top 10 than I think people realize. I'm glad you said top five.

I, yeah, he's playing like an all pro stats show that, but just film shows that he, they designed plays for him. He's running every route. Well, I was again, I test, but then also he's explosive. And I mentioned in week one, he has the explosive, most, the fastest ball carrier speed of anybody in the NFL this year, Nico Collins on that long bomb in week one, faster than Xavier Worthy.

faster than derrick henry on his long run faster than all those guys nico collins at what is he 215 218 6 4 215 plus like perfect x yeah and yeah man yeah so he is fast big great hands great route runner with a quarterback that is dialing things up and just putting things on the money so he leads the nfl receiving yards by over 100 malik neighbors the second like 386 i think collins has 489 i mean it

And it's not like listeners, viewers, however, your favorite NFL analyst podcast or whatever, however, they talk about Nico Collins. That's how they know, you know, they're watching the games or not. We are obviously doing it in the correct fashion. Obviously. So that's just like, that's, that's my statement about Nico Collins. Yeah. Top five. He's playing like a top five receiver. No question about it. I agreed. I, I concur, Mr. Matt Harmon, but,

oh oh i will say we focus on offense other good thing their pass rush is really good second and pressure rate and the nfl good third round design or third down designs as well on defense but that brings us to what has been least impressive with the texans so far and any concerns that you have with them right now yeah their early down offense is actually pretty terrible for all that for all that stuff we just talked about so yeah uh so okay so overall the

The Texans are 28th in offensive EPA per play and success rate on first and second down. If you take out week one completely, they rank, which was the game that you mentioned, Cam Akers, obviously mixing was healthy in week one. I think they look great and he looked great. The whole,

offense looked exactly like, wow, we fixed the run game just like we thought. I mean, the Colts run defense not very good, but still, we didn't know that at the time. It's like, wow, the Joe Mixon addition really worked here. So you take that game out, the healthy Joe Mixon game, they ranked 32nd in rushing EPA and success rate overall in like

Like it's actually not even really close. Like they rank 32nd in success rate by a lot. Like I mentioned, they're the most penalized team. They've lost the second most yards to penalty this year. 171 third most yards lost due to sacks behind Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson. CJ Stroud is not like one of these things doesn't look like the other. So that would be the biggest concern.

They're Stroud and Collins and digs who has a 83% catch rate on third down third and fourth down targets. Like those guys are, they're making it work in terms of the later downs, but their first and second down offense is actually pretty poor, which I think comes down to run game. It comes down to offensive line and coaching a little bit too. I think, I think they've got to, what do you think is like the biggest reason that beyond the fact that mixing isn't hurt, that their run game still sucks. Yeah.

I know exactly what they're about to run every time. They have a lot of formation tells with their run game right now, which is that's always the cool thing with Shanahan and McVay is how much they tie everything together. I think their stuff's a little siloed right now where it's like, all right, this formation pass, this formation play action. And that's just me as a neutral observer just checking things out. So I'm sure defenses have some tells on that. Yeah.

The line, just some communication stuff, always with the run game. And where it's just, I don't know, a guy comes off a double team too early. So they just have some of those Laramie Tunsels not playing great. He's playing more just like as opposed to all pro Laramie Tunsel. And that's a big deal when the rest of the offense line is more

you know, average-ish, the star should play like a star. And that helps everybody else out. So I think some of that, and you mentioned the penalties, how you get a lot of yards is you face a lot of long passing downs. So the penalties, the lack of a run game adds up for that. At least they have a dude at quarterback that can get it. Thank God. Yeah, otherwise this would look atrocious. Like if they had a

If they had a Darnold, like if there's a mid-level, you know, this would look so bad because he'd be facing all these third and longs. Stroud can drop back and chuck it. It's just that they still stick to the Shanahan formula. I feel like they just still are sticking to that, even though I think maybe the week one was a gateway drug. And they're like, we can get this done with Cam Akers. And so they don't have a running back that's helping them out. Offensive line's a little leaky right now. So it's just, yeah, it leads to a lot of that. And again, it's one of these where it's like,

I thought they'd be more cohesive. So I don't know if they do improve as the season goes along or if this just is what it is, but...

at least they have Stroud. What's your confidence they'll win this division? Oh, like 10. Having said that, having said all of that, the fact that Stroud is the quarterback of this team and the other teams in this division don't have their s*** together, I'm going to go ahead and say 10. Three of the biggest things you can have, biggest advantages you can have as the season goes along or as you hit the playoffs. Quarterback,

offensive line pass rush they have two of them and if you look at the rest of the division i'm like and the offensive line like laramie tunsell's not having a great start to the season he's still laramie tunsell like if he suddenly just locks in and then yeah mix is healthy a lot of these issues can go away so um yeah i feel great about where they're they're i know they're a team i'm real every team i do but they're a team post bi-week i'm curious if they clean some stuff up with the run game all right moving to another team that was chalk going into the season that is now a

four and oh i'm gonna say three no four and oh that is the kansas city chiefs out in the afc west i already confidence levels kind of you know i feel the same but what's been impressive with this chiefs team so far when you watch them storm out to a four and oh lead four and oh lead four and oh division lead i should say i think their secondary still remains like a nightmare to play against um that is probably the thing that's been most impressive they're they're

This is such a weird conversation to have about the chiefs. Like it's, it feels even weirder than last year because they're, they're kind of right back in the same place. You know, um, Rasheed rice obviously gets hurt on a, on a really unfortunate play. My home stores interception. And then, and you know, he's trying to make that play and he,

rips up his top receiver's knee. And then two seconds later, Sky Moore is dropping a pass. It's like, oh, we're right back in 2023 again. But yeah, I would say the defense remains, especially the secondary, I think remains a really difficult unit to go against.

what they did with the Bengals and Jamar chase and week two still really sticks out to me. Obviously this last game against Herbert and, and lad McConkie and the chargers B team was a little bit notwithstanding. So overall still think that unit is good enough for them to just lean on until, I don't know, something happens with the offense. Yeah. Yeah. It's I I'm curious how this past game looks because I was starting to kind of see what they're going for.

with Rice and Worthy and kind of figuring out how to use Kelsey in the early half of the year. The run game, Mike, is really good. It's very efficient. Please hold on to the ball, Carson Steele. My fantasy teams depend on you. But it's a 51.3% efficiency on running back runs on early downs. And they have no threat. Mahomes could scramble, but he's not a designed runner anymore ever since he...

Got hurt on that sneak against Denver in what year was that? 2019. They said never again. Never again. Never again. But this is why their offense felt like crap last year and something I kind of was harping on all offseason is the run game stunk. It was like 29th, I think, in all the metrics I look at. 28th, 29th. And now it's good. It's easily good. It's the best in the league. Second place is 47% with the Lions. They're at 51.3%.

The difference between first and second is the same as second to ninth. So it's like this is a legit run game, but that's going to help as they figure out the passing game. And the fact that they can get those four or five yards, it's not just Mahomes on third and ten making another crazy play. It's still going to be some of that. But, you know, I just got to see it. I got to see how they mitigate it. Reid is not always my favorite passing game designer, but...

Sometimes when he's kind of his back's against the wall and when he gets to be creative, he kind of shows some cool stuff. So I'm curious where they go from there. Defense still has Chris Jones. They still have plenty of Funk.

Uh, they're still pretty good against explosive plays, which is the big kind of metric I look at for the spags defense. Cause they're so funky. So that's a solid sign, but just another weird season as they storm out to a four and a lead. Uh, what's the least impressive thing or biggest concern? Mine's just skill player injuries, which is cut to be expected. I'm sure yours is probably the same, but yeah. How are they going to score points? Which I know how they're going. I know they're going to score points, but how are they going to do it? I mean,

I'm glad that you said the thing about Andy Reid and like past game design sucks. Sometimes I really, sometimes I really, I never have. If I'm being honest, like he's creative designer as far as he can do some cool design plays and run game stuff. But the passing game is never, ever. It's old school West coast. And it's just never been my kind of favorite with a bunch of just like

gadgety receivers like nobody how badly i said this to my buddy james co the other day how badly would you just want like a like bud light nico collins we don't i don't even need nico collins i need like 25 of nico collins somewhere on this roster meanwhile it's like nah let's let's get some dude we've heard of like some dude we played before like let's get some more mccall hardman snaps in here it's short by 40 time

That's the 40-yard dash time. That's how they find their receivers. I know. It's frustrating because that, I don't know, a traditional West Coast offense, how I learned it anyways, is you need skill at receiver. You need the Jerry Rice. You need the guys that can beat press and win with field because you're going to face a lot of press.

And they get a lot of guys that are long speed guys or crossing route guys. To me, it's just like there's so – the personnel never met. He doesn't know like the personnel he needs for his own offense. I know I'm criticizing one of the greatest football coaches of all time. But let me get it off. God, I keep –

making me cough your own body is trying to stop you I know it is it really is consecutive Super Bowl winner Hall of Fame coach right now incredible game designer and everything but it's just yeah once it gets off the opening script it always can be wonky so we might see a little bit more of that but

I still feel confident about this. Because I, yeah, they still have an offensive line. They still have my homes. They still have a defense that that's enough for me. That's still enough for me for, for their 10 out of 10 to win this division until, until they trade with the bills for MVS. Because again, they've had him in the off in the building before, like that, that when everybody's like,

are they going to trade for Devante Adams or Mario Cooper? It's like, no, they'll bring in some dude we've heard from before. I'm shocked they didn't go after Jerry Judy before he got traded. That's the exact type of guy. Frustrating ball dropper. All right, moving on to the last team in the AFC. Who were chalk? Were they the favorites? They were close to the favorites. I think they were second favorites. But the Buffalo Bills, yeah, they're my favorites. But the Buffalo Bills, who are 3-1, but

Just got maybe, you know, a little Baltimore beat down. They ran into a buzzsaw on Sunday night. But when you watch this Bills team, what's been impressive about them?

Yeah, I mean, obviously tough to say after what we just watched on Sunday Night Football because they did get beat down by the Baltimore Ravens. But I would say that the offense, Josh Allen's command over the offense, how just solid and sustainable they looked as an offense. And yeah, just really like a really sound approach on that side of the ball.

I definitely think Joe Brady's had a really good season with one glaring exception, which was that Curtis Samuel trick play. I can't quit. Whether you look, I love Curtis Sam. I know we don't need to be snapping the ball to Curtis Samuel and flipping it back to Josh Allen to get him obliterated. So, yeah, I

Other than that, I think Brady's had a good season as the office coordinator and the offense overalls look good. I don't think that... Well, I don't know. In my concern, I'm going to talk kind of about both sides of my mouth here when I say this, but I don't think there are many teams out there that can just barrel you over like Baltimore, get you in a negative game script, and force you into that sort of situation. So I think, by and large, the thing that still impresses me most is obviously Josh Allen and the overall command of the offense he's had. Yeah, same. The offense was cooking until they faced that. They had...

Actually, probably one of the worst Josh Allen kind of success rate games up until that. Right after he comes off his best performance.

success rate game. So get a little bit of both there. I still have faith in the offense. You saw, I'll just speak my negative too real quick is that you saw for the first time that lack of the ace pass catcher got felt. Alan went four for 10 for 32 yards against man coverage. Not, not that's, I had a bunch of bills fans yelling at me going like, you know, I'm like, well, that's not his fault. I'm like, I'm not saying it is. I know that this, this is a pass catcher stat. And yeah, I know it's like pretty pleased to Fonte Adams, but,

But I, you saw that that's the first time where a team dare to run man and got the bills. And it's hard to do that. Not every team has the Ravens personnel and the Ravens just game plans that they did. So, but I still have faith in this offense. I mentioned that I was appreciating Joe Brady's play calling. I'm not,

changing that thought because I did think he was doing some good stuff with the run game and I thought the play calling had been good but we do have to mention that trick play yeah again the negative on the defense is they had the linebacker injuries Ravens dared them they just trotted out one receiver on like a dozen plays 15 plays they trotted out Patrick Card on like all their snaps they just the Bills match with nickel with five DBs almost 100% of the time so they just said oh you have two linebackers out

well, let's make you try and put three on the, on the field all the time. And they dared them and they just ran right all over himself. I'm confident. The bills are a good team. I'm confident. I, like you said, not every team can do that against them, but,

But, you know, we'll see in playoff time or, you know, in December, like what happens then? Then then we'll talk about it then. But I'm at a nine out of 10. The only threat to me is the Jets who just lost at home to Bo Nix. So I'm sure lots of Jets talks, but I feel good about this Bills team where they sit as long as they get healthy back, back healthy on defense.

Yeah, I'm at the same. I'm eight and a half, nine here. I was ready to just go full 10 out of 10. But yeah, I had the same concern, which is just when they get pounded, can they respond? And that's generally been a concern with them. And I think both sides of the ball, you got to have some issues there because of everything you just said. So yeah, about the same range, mostly again, because the other teams in the division, I don't have any faith in really. This was a classic. I'm not trying to... The Ravens are a good team. I'm not trying to go like, oh my God,

sky's falling for the bills. Like it's so hard in the heat of the moment. And I'm trying to just in my close my eyes and go, remember the first three weeks, remember how good they looked like. So it's again, it's always somewhere in the middle. It's like, they have some weaknesses that you can pick at, but you still have to pick at them. And I still have Josh Allen. They still have a pretty good offense. So yeah,

All right. Thank you, Matt. That was a lot of fun tapping on all those eight teams. Fun for me, at least. I'm a sucker. I loved it. I mean, these are all really highlights this morning. I'm watching Taylor Bears punter highlights. Everybody's doing it. You're a sick freak. I know. I watch the Lions back on film because I enjoy good things. Nate Tice, meanwhile, is ripping on the punters. You're the punter. But we're closing it out today.

Charles will be back on Thursday as we preview week five. We're entering October. October 1st as we record this. But I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice. Where can they find you, Matt?

Matt Harmon underscore BYB. I'm back. My account was hacked. Yeah, by a laptop scammer. So apologies to everybody who was inconvenienced by that. But no more scams and only bad takes on my Twitter feed going forward. I was going to text you about neighbors Thursday night because you had a he had a drop stat, right? Like he had a high drop rate. He had a drop and I was going to text you about it. And then I was like,

I think he's a little busy right now. So he gave you some space. Thank you. Yeah. Cause I know how that is when you're probably on your phone. I'll say you get burnt Nate Tice. How about neighbors right there? And you're just, yeah, right. Well, honestly, it would have been welcomed because everybody else in my life was like, Hey, do you know your Twitter? It's a hack. I'm like, yes, yes, I'm, I'm aware.

And you know people are trying to be nice and you're just like, I get it. I know. Trust me, I'm aware. I love when you hopped on the reception perception account. It's good to have a backup. But yes, we will be back Thursday. Next week, Matt will be back on. We'll be doing the Fantasy Film Room tomorrow, which will be a lot of fun. We're going to break down some rookies, so make sure to check that out. Subscribe to us. Follow us. Rate us. Watch us on YouTube on the Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Also follow Yahoo Sports on Snapchat.

If you're into that. Also, thanks to Brett Stoninati, behind the scenes. They're killing it. Thanks everybody for listening. And I'll see you guys on Thursday.